Live·Open questions in longevity research
Omega Point
Omega Point benchmark

Benchmark of the predictive and creative ability of LLMs

Models fully scored3 of 4
Sets of five hypotheses per model15050 tasks, each asked in three ways
Sets of research ideas per model300100 keywords, each asked in three ways
Judges4one from each developer company
UpdatedNovember 1 at 09:02 AM UTCrefreshed every hour while the benchmark runs

A benchmark for deciding which hypotheses to test

The system receives hypotheses with outcomes unknown to the model and forecasts which deserve experimental testing. The central counts are how many it recommends and what fraction have support under the stated evaluation. Forecasts determine the recommendation count; abstaining from every hypothesis is allowed.

Current measurement

For 50 article-derived research questions, models proposed hypotheses without seeing the reference finding. Judges then compared the hypotheses with that finding. Forecasts and recurrence are being studied as possible ways to identify matching hypotheses.

Limits of the current evaluation

The instruction and recommendation policies are already fixed, and forecasts use a common hypothesis pool. Current article-correspondence fractions describe internal retrospective evaluation: these questions informed instruction development. Reliability on new hypotheses and future experiments requires a separate evaluation.

A hypothesis that does not match one article may still prove correct. Its future biological outcome remains unknown. Actual experimental success needs separate follow-up with supported, refuted and unresolved outcomes.

Simple-question benchmark on 100 experimentally tested hypotheses

A separate balanced dataset: 50 claims confirmed and 50 directly contradicted by experiments in 50 primary papers. Each model receives one hypothesis per fresh request and only the simple confirmation question.

Will this hypothesis be confirmed experimentally?

Reference labels are published experimental outcomes under the stated conditions. A nonsignificant difference alone is insufficient for refutation; a direct contradiction of the measured result is required. We ran no new laboratory experiments for this benchmark.

A true positive is a confirmed claim forecast as yes. A false positive is a refuted claim forecast as yes. A false negative is a confirmed claim forecast as no. A true negative is a refuted claim forecast as no.

The primary score is the mean of sensitivity and specificity. Every vote rule is compared with the same coin and individual models on exactly the same complete cases.

The original four predictors retain their saved replies and the shared coin ledger. Opus 5.5 was tested separately on the same 100 claims. The original four-predictor analysis remains available.

Sonnet and Opus are both Anthropic models. Five predictors represent four companies; their votes may be dependent.

The main analysis accepts an explicit JSON yes/no forecast even when the model adds prose. The strict-format analysis remains available separately.

Four separate forecast metrics against the recorded coin

The positive predictive value describes success among yes forecasts; the negative predictive value describes success among no forecasts. Sensitivity measures how many experimentally confirmed claims were found. Specificity measures how many experimentally refuted claims received a no forecast. Each metric has its own denominator, shown as a fraction.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 52, comprising 27 correct and 25 incorrect forecasts. No: 48, comprising 25 correct and 23 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 52 claims. Of these, 27 were supported by the original experimental results.51.9%27 / 52
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 48 claims. Of these, 25 were contradicted by the original experimental results.52.1%25 / 48
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 27 of these.54%27 / 50
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 25 of these.50%25 / 50

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

53 forecasts recovered from answers with additional prose.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 54, comprising 39 correct and 15 incorrect forecasts. No: 46, comprising 35 correct and 11 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 54 claims. Of these, 39 were supported by the original experimental results.72.2%39 / 54Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +20.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 46 claims. Of these, 35 were contradicted by the original experimental results.76.1%35 / 46Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 39 of these.78%39 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 35 of these.70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 61, comprising 41 correct and 20 incorrect forecasts. No: 39, comprising 30 correct and 9 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 61 claims. Of these, 41 were supported by the original experimental results.67.2%41 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 39 claims. Of these, 30 were contradicted by the original experimental results.76.9%30 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24.8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 41 of these.82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 30 of these.60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 46, comprising 37 correct and 9 incorrect forecasts. No: 54, comprising 41 correct and 13 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 46 claims. Of these, 37 were supported by the original experimental results.80.4%37 / 46Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 54 claims. Of these, 41 were contradicted by the original experimental results.75.9%41 / 54Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 37 of these.74%37 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 41 of these.82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 47, comprising 36 correct and 11 incorrect forecasts. No: 53, comprising 39 correct and 14 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 47 claims. Of these, 36 were supported by the original experimental results.76.6%36 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 53 claims. Of these, 39 were contradicted by the original experimental results.73.6%39 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 36 of these.72%36 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 39 of these.78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points

Usable forecasts 100 of 100; technical omissions 0.

11 forecasts recovered from answers with additional prose.

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 61, comprising 42 correct and 19 incorrect forecasts. No: 39, comprising 31 correct and 8 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 61 claims. Of these, 42 were supported by the original experimental results.68.9%42 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 39 claims. Of these, 31 were contradicted by the original experimental results.79.5%31 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.4 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 42 of these.84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 31 of these.62%31 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points

All coin results use the original recorded tosses. Each comparison retains only the same hypotheses used for the corresponding model or rule; no toss is redrawn.

Positive and negative predictive values describe this deliberately balanced cohort. They change when the real proportion of successful hypotheses changes.

Combinations with different false-positive counts

For each false-positive count, retain combinations finding the most confirmed claims. When fewer false positives find the same number of confirmed claims, retain the more cautious combination. All results describe this same dataset.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 1 of 2 positive votes76.3%45 / 59Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.3 percentage points87.8%36 / 41Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +35.7 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points10059451441365
GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 2 of 3 positive votes79.2%42 / 53Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +27.3 percentage points83%39 / 47Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.9 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points10053421147398
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 3 of 4 positive votes80%40 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.1 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.9 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100504010504010
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 3 positive votes85%34 / 40Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +33.1 percentage points73.3%44 / 60Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.2 percentage points68%34 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10040346604416
Sonnet 5.5 + Gemini 4 Argon High + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 3 positive votes86.1%31 / 36Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +34.2 percentage points70.3%45 / 64Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +18.2 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points10036315644519
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Opus 5.5 · At least 4 of 4 positive votes90.9%30 / 33Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points70.1%47 / 67Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +18.1 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10033303674720
Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 2 positive votes70.1%47 / 67Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +18.2 percentage points90.9%30 / 33Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +38.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10067472033303
GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 3 positive votes64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 4 positive votes64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
Sonnet 5.5 + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 4 positive votes80%40 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.1 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.9 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100504010504010
GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 4 positive votes64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 4 positive votes80.9%38 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.9 percentage points77.4%41 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +25.3 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points10047389534112
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 5 positive votes64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 4 of 5 positive votes82.2%37 / 45Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +30.3 percentage points76.4%42 / 55Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24.3 percentage points74%37 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points10045378554213

Exact number of yes votes among 5 predictors

Each hypothesis belongs to exactly one exact-vote group. The groups contain 100 hypotheses in total, including 50 positive reference outcomes. Each row below evaluates selecting that group as a separate rule.

For each row, membership in that exact-vote group is treated as the positive prediction; every other hypothesis in the common cohort is the negative prediction. All four metrics and the coin comparison therefore use the whole common cohort, with the fraction of matches within the row shown as positive predictive value.

All 5 models answered yes to 26 hypotheses. Of these, 23 were confirmed experimentally (88.5%) and 3 were refuted. This rule misses 27 of the 50 confirmed hypotheses in this table.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Exactly 0 yes votes7.7%2 / 26Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: -44.2 percentage points35.1%26 / 74Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: -16.9 percentage points4%2 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -50 percentage points52%26 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +2 percentage points10026224742648
Exactly 1 yes votes50%3 / 6Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: -1.9 percentage points50%47 / 94Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: -2.1 percentage points6%3 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -48 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points100633944747
Exactly 2 yes votes25%3 / 12Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: -26.9 percentage points46.6%41 / 88Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: -5.5 percentage points6%3 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -48 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points1001239884147
Exactly 3 yes votes45.5%5 / 11Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: -6.5 percentage points49.4%44 / 89Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: -2.6 percentage points10%5 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -44 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points1001156894445
Exactly 4 yes votes73.7%14 / 19Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points55.6%45 / 81Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points28%14 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -26 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points10019145814536
Exactly 5 yes votes88.5%23 / 26Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points63.5%47 / 74Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points46%23 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10026233744727

Combinations of simple-question forecasts

All configurations and baselines use the same 100 hypotheses from 50 source papers. Technical omissions are excluded identically.

Models in the combination

Yes forecasts: 68. True positives: 45; false positives: 23; false negatives: 5; true negatives: 27.

Among yes forecasts, 23 of 68 are false positives (33.8%). Of the confirmed hypotheses, 5 of 50 are missed (10%).

Usable forecasts: 100. Yes: 68, comprising 45 correct and 23 incorrect forecasts. No: 32, comprising 27 correct and 5 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 68 claims. Of these, 45 were supported by the original experimental results.66.2%45 / 68Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +14.3 percentage points95% interval 60.5% to 73.3%95% interval for the difference: +3.1 to +25.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 32 claims. Of these, 27 were contradicted by the original experimental results.84.4%27 / 32Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +32.3 percentage points95% interval 74.4% to 95.8%95% interval for the difference: +17.8 to +47.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 50 experimentally supported claims. A yes forecast was given to 45 of these.90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points95% interval 82% to 98%95% interval for the difference: +18 to +54 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 50 claims contradicted by the original experimental results. A no forecast was given to 27 of these.54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points95% interval 40% to 68%95% interval for the difference: -14 to +22 percentage points
Hypotheses in the selected view · 68
  1. Global Gcgr deletion increases sperm concentration in male mice relative to wild-type littermates

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Concentration fell from 34.94 to 17.94 million/mL, P = 0.0057.

    Experimental source · PMC13670565 · Supplementary Figure 5F
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Global Gcgr deletion increases sperm concentration in male mice relative to wild-type littermates.

    17.94 ± 8.18 million/mL vs. 34.94 ± 12.26 million/mL, P = 0.0057

    Glucagon receptor blockade protects spermatogenesis by enhancing PFKFB3-mediated lactate production in Sertoli cells.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  2. The STING inhibitor H-151 at 25 mg/L in drinking water extends male Lmna-G609G progeroid mouse median lifespan relative to vehicle

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Male median survival increased from 122 to 149 days; log-rank p<0.001.

    Experimental source · PMC13582914 · Figure 5g
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    The STING inhibitor H-151 at 25 mg/L in drinking water extends male Lmna-G609G progeroid mouse median lifespan relative to vehicle.

    extended from 122 days in vehicle-treated mice to 149 days

    CK2α restriction of STING accumulation underlies systemic aging.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  3. Co-culture with sardomozide-pretreated fibro-adipogenic progenitors increases nuclei per myotube during mouse muscle stem cell differentiation relative to untreated-progenitor co-culture

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Nuclei per myotube decreased.

    Experimental source · PMC13474089 · Supplementary Figure 5G-J
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Co-culture with sardomozide-pretreated fibro-adipogenic progenitors increases nuclei per myotube during mouse muscle stem cell differentiation relative to untreated-progenitor co-culture.

    a reduced average number of nuclei per myotube

    Comprehensive transcriptomic profiling reveals impaired polyamine metabolism as a contributor to age-related muscle decline.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Opus 5.5.

  4. Dasatinib plus quercetin increases mineralized callus bone volume twenty-eight days after fracture in mice lacking Cbfb in Adipoq-positive marrow cells relative to untreated knockout mice

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Treatment increased mineralized callus volume.

    Experimental source · PMC13458481 · Supplementary Figure 14k-n
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Dasatinib plus quercetin increases mineralized callus bone volume twenty-eight days after fracture in mice lacking Cbfb in Adipoq-positive marrow cells relative to untreated knockout mice.

    increased callus formation and mineralized bone volume

    Youthfulness of marrow Adipoq&lt;sup&gt;+&lt;/sup&gt; cells maintained by Cbfβ facilitates stem cell-based bone repair.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  5. Induced NICD expression prevents depletion of Pax7-positive muscle stem cells in Kmt5a-deficient adult mice twenty-one days after muscle injury

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Despite NICD, the injured knockout muscle showed near-complete stem-cell depletion at day 21.

    Experimental source · PMC13571648 · Supplementary Figure S1D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Induced NICD expression prevents depletion of Pax7-positive muscle stem cells in Kmt5a-deficient adult mice twenty-one days after muscle injury.

    near-complete depletion of the MuSC pool

    KMT5A maintains muscle stem cell quiescence through epigenetic regulation of Notch signaling.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  6. Inducible cartilage-specific Erk5 deletion lowers knee cartilage OARSI damage scores after destabilization of the medial meniscus in adult mice relative to controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Cartilage Erk5 knockout reduced OARSI histological damage scores after surgery.

    Experimental source · PMC13538362 · Figure 2b,c
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Inducible cartilage-specific Erk5 deletion lowers knee cartilage OARSI damage scores after destabilization of the medial meniscus in adult mice relative to controls.

    OARSI scores were lower in CKO mice

    Inhibition of ERK5 activity ameliorates osteoarthritis by suppressing NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated chondrocyte pyroptosis.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  7. Whole-body Ghr ablation initiated at twelve months increases male mouse body weight at nineteen months relative to controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Male body weight decreased at nineteen and twenty-three months, P < 0.0001.

    Experimental source · PMC13545643 · Figure 1g
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Whole-body Ghr ablation initiated at twelve months increases male mouse body weight at nineteen months relative to controls.

    reduced in 12mGHRKO males

    Midlife Growth Hormone Receptor Ablation Extends Healthy Lifespan and Induces Sex-Specific Hepatic Transcriptional Changes at Single-Cell Resolution.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  8. Cbfb deletion in Adipoq-positive marrow cells increases PDGFR-alpha-positive skeletal progenitor abundance in mice relative to control mice

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. PDGFR-alpha-positive progenitors were significantly reduced.

    Experimental source · PMC13458481 · Supplementary Figure 14o-v
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Cbfb deletion in Adipoq-positive marrow cells increases PDGFR-alpha-positive skeletal progenitor abundance in mice relative to control mice.

    were significantly reduced in Cbfβ CKO mice

    Youthfulness of marrow Adipoq&lt;sup&gt;+&lt;/sup&gt; cells maintained by Cbfβ facilitates stem cell-based bone repair.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  9. Sardomozide inhibition of AMD1 increases Cdkn1a expression in fibro-adipogenic progenitors isolated from young mouse skeletal muscle relative to untreated progenitors

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Cdkn1a increased, P < 0.0001.

    Experimental source · PMC13474089 · Figure 5C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Sardomozide inhibition of AMD1 increases Cdkn1a expression in fibro-adipogenic progenitors isolated from young mouse skeletal muscle relative to untreated progenitors.

    an early induction of the cell cycle inhibitor Cdkn1a

    Comprehensive transcriptomic profiling reveals impaired polyamine metabolism as a contributor to age-related muscle decline.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  10. Induced NICD expression preserves the quiescent Pax7-positive muscle stem-cell pool in Kmt5a-deficient adult mice six weeks after tamoxifen under homeostasis

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. NICD prevented stem-cell depletion and reduced Ki67-positive activation under homeostasis.

    Experimental source · PMC13571648 · Figure 2B-D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Induced NICD expression preserves the quiescent Pax7-positive muscle stem-cell pool in Kmt5a-deficient adult mice six weeks after tamoxifen under homeostasis.

    prevented depletion of the Pax7+ stem cell pool

    KMT5A maintains muscle stem cell quiescence through epigenetic regulation of Notch signaling.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  11. Taurine supplementation lowers serum LDL cholesterol in hypothyroid rats relative to hypothyroid rats receiving water alone

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Elevated LDL cholesterol decreased after taurine.

    Experimental source · PMC13390905 · Figure 3C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Taurine supplementation lowers serum LDL cholesterol in hypothyroid rats relative to hypothyroid rats receiving water alone.

    were reduced following taurine supplementation

    Hypercholesterolemia induced by hypothyroidism is ameliorated by taurine supplementation through the hepatic AMPK/ACC pathway.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  12. Snca deletion reduces whole-aorta atherosclerotic lesion area in male mice after AAV-PCSK9 administration and sixteen weeks of high-cholesterol feeding relative to wild-type littermates

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Whole-aorta and aortic-arch lesion areas were significantly smaller.

    Experimental source · PMC13620287 · Figure 1c-e
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Snca deletion reduces whole-aorta atherosclerotic lesion area in male mice after AAV-PCSK9 administration and sixteen weeks of high-cholesterol feeding relative to wild-type littermates.

    significantly smaller lesion areas

    α-Synuclein Promotes Atherosclerosis by Impairing Macrophage Autophagic Flux.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  13. Enzymatically hydrolyzed eggshell membrane increases KRT1 expression in cultured neonatal human epidermal keratinocytes compared with untreated cells

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Hydrolyzed membrane dose-dependently increased KRT1 and other differentiation markers.

    Experimental source · PMC13507864 · Figure 1B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Enzymatically hydrolyzed eggshell membrane increases KRT1 expression in cultured neonatal human epidermal keratinocytes compared with untreated cells.

    significantly upregulated the expression of KRT1

    Enzymatically Hydrolyzed Eggshell Membrane Promotes Keratinocyte Differentiation Associated With PKC and Akt Signaling Pathways.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  14. Sost deletion increases tibial cortical thickness in seventy-eight-week-old mice relative to littermate controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Cortical thickness was 246% greater in seventy-eight-week-old knockout mice.

    Experimental source · PMC13400213 · Figure 2B; Table 2
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Sost deletion increases tibial cortical thickness in seventy-eight-week-old mice relative to littermate controls.

    Ct.Th (246%)

    &lt;i&gt;Sost&lt;/i&gt; deficiency leads to greater bone vascular porosity, but similar osteocyte lacunar properties with increasing age.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  15. Recombinant human FGF21 administered before intrauterine lipopolysaccharide lowers uterine histopathological injury scores in mice compared with lipopolysaccharide alone

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. FGF21 pretreatment significantly reduced histopathological injury scores.

    Experimental source · PMC13672570 · Figure 3C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Recombinant human FGF21 administered before intrauterine lipopolysaccharide lowers uterine histopathological injury scores in mice compared with lipopolysaccharide alone.

    a significant decrease in histopathological scores

    Macrophage-derived FGF21 Restrains Endometritis By Suppressing Inflammation and Promoting Repair Through FGFR1.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  16. FNDC1 overexpression restores EdU-labelled proliferation in ZBED6-overexpressing primary porcine muscle satellite cells relative to ZBED6 overexpression alone

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. FNDC1 increased the number of EdU-positive cells in the ZBED6-overexpressing background.

    Experimental source · PMC13637308 · Figure 4A,B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    FNDC1 overexpression restores EdU-labelled proliferation in ZBED6-overexpressing primary porcine muscle satellite cells relative to ZBED6 overexpression alone.

    significantly increased the number of EdU-positive cells

    ZBED6 deletion activates FNDC1-mediated PI3K/AKT and MAPK/ERK1/2 signaling pathways to promote myogenesis in pigs.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  17. Conditional beta-PIX deletion in alveolar type-II cells increases the alveolar type-I to type-II cell ratio four weeks after induction in mice relative to wild-type controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. The ratio decreased by 40%.

    Experimental source · PMC13558768 · Supplementary Figure 11
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Conditional beta-PIX deletion in alveolar type-II cells increases the alveolar type-I to type-II cell ratio four weeks after induction in mice relative to wild-type controls.

    a significant decrease of 40%

    Alveolar epithelial depletion of βPAK-interacting exchange factor drives spontaneous pulmonary fibrosis by impairing stemness.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  18. Psme4/PA200 deletion increases lung p53 protein in middle-aged mice subjected to urethane-induced tumorigenesis compared with wild-type controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Lung p53 was lower, not higher, in PA200-deficient middle-aged mice.

    Experimental source · PMC13665431 · Figure 6j
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Psme4/PA200 deletion increases lung p53 protein in middle-aged mice subjected to urethane-induced tumorigenesis compared with wild-type controls.

    p53 levels were lower in PA200 KO mice

    The p53-PA200 Feedback Loop Modulates Age-Dependent Tumorigenesis.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  19. Endothelial-specific Pdha1 deletion lowers pulmonary endothelial p21 expression in D-galactose-treated mice compared with treated control littermates

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Endothelial Pdha1 deletion reduced lung endothelial p21 staining after D-galactose.

    Experimental source · PMC13490744 · Figure 4A,B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Endothelial-specific Pdha1 deletion lowers pulmonary endothelial p21 expression in D-galactose-treated mice compared with treated control littermates.

    decreased endothelial (CD31+) senescence-related molecule p21 expression

    PDHA1 Hyperactivation Orchestrates Metabolic Reprogramming Promoting Endothelial Senescence.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  20. Intra-articular PAMAM-Chol-AZ3451 nanoparticles reduce mechanical allodynia twenty-four hours after treatment in mice with monoiodoacetate-induced knee osteoarthritis relative to vehicle

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Drug-loaded nanoparticles produced sustained anti-allodynic effects peaking at twenty-four hours.

    Experimental source · PMC13567674 · Figure 1B-D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Intra-articular PAMAM-Chol-AZ3451 nanoparticles reduce mechanical allodynia twenty-four hours after treatment in mice with monoiodoacetate-induced knee osteoarthritis relative to vehicle.

    a profound and prolonged reduction

    Dual-Targeted Inhibition of PAR&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Endosomal Signaling in Synoviocytes and Nociceptors Attenuates Osteoarthritis Pain.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  21. Renal-tubule-specific Erbin deletion reduces serum creatinine one day after kidney ischemia-reperfusion in mice relative to control littermates

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Tubular Erbin knockout increased serum creatinine after injury; five mice per group.

    Experimental source · PMC13631325 · Figure 2C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Renal-tubule-specific Erbin deletion reduces serum creatinine one day after kidney ischemia-reperfusion in mice relative to control littermates.

    were significantly augmented in Erbin-KO mice

    Loss of Erbin in tubular epithelial cells sensitizes mice to acute kidney injury and aggravates renal fibrosis.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra.

  22. Adenoviral Erbin overexpression in kidney cortex before ischemia-reperfusion reduces renal interstitial collagen deposition fourteen days after injury relative to control adenovirus in mice

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Erbin overexpression reduced post-injury interstitial collagen; five mice per group.

    Experimental source · PMC13631325 · Figure 3G,H
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Adenoviral Erbin overexpression in kidney cortex before ischemia-reperfusion reduces renal interstitial collagen deposition fourteen days after injury relative to control adenovirus in mice.

    reduced collagen deposition in renal interstitium

    Loss of Erbin in tubular epithelial cells sensitizes mice to acute kidney injury and aggravates renal fibrosis.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  23. Deleting membrane-bound COMT increases basal CellROX oxidative-stress signal in rat PC12 cells relative to wild-type cells

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. COMT-deficient cells had higher basal oxidative stress by CellROX.

    Experimental source · PMC13598237 · Figure 1D,E
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Deleting membrane-bound COMT increases basal CellROX oxidative-stress signal in rat PC12 cells relative to wild-type cells.

    oxidative stress levels were markedly higher

    Catechol-&lt;i&gt;O&lt;/i&gt;-methyltransferase connects dopamine homeostasis to redox signaling, metal homeostasis, and protein folding in schizophrenia.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  24. Two weeks of alternate-day fasting before carbon-tetrachloride challenge reduces subsequent mouse liver fibrosis relative to freely fed controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Fasting preconditioning reduced Sirius-Red-defined fibrosis after carbon tetrachloride.

    Experimental source · PMC13616305 · Figure 5C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Two weeks of alternate-day fasting before carbon-tetrachloride challenge reduces subsequent mouse liver fibrosis relative to freely fed controls.

    reduced fibrotic pathology

    A Hepatocyte-to-Stellate Cell Axis Couples Alternate-Day Fasting to Liver Fibrosis Resolution via ATG7 S-Nitrosylation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  25. Beta-cell-specific Fmo3 deletion improves glucose tolerance in twelve-week-old mice relative to wild-type littermates

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Knockout mice developed glucose intolerance starting at twelve weeks.

    Experimental source · PMC13518901 · Figure 2e,f
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Beta-cell-specific Fmo3 deletion improves glucose tolerance in twelve-week-old mice relative to wild-type littermates.

    starting at 12 weeks of age

    β-cell FMO3-produced TMAO prevents NF-κB-mediated senescence and inflammation in ageing and diabetic conditions.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Opus 5.5.

  26. PAPPA overexpression reduces apoptosis caused by miR-27b-3p mimics in KGN granulosa cells exposed to 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide relative to empty vector

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. PAPPA co-expression reversed the pro-apoptotic phenotype; p<0.001.

    Experimental source · PMC13512339 · Figure 4C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    PAPPA overexpression reduces apoptosis caused by miR-27b-3p mimics in KGN granulosa cells exposed to 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide relative to empty vector.

    reversed both the proliferation blockade and pro-apoptotic phenotype

    miR-27b-3p Exacerbates VCD-Induced KGN Cell Injury by Targeting PAPPA to Suppress IGF-1 Release and Inhibit the PI3K/AKT Pathway.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  27. Twenty-four-hour atrial natriuretic peptide pretreatment attenuates angiotensin-II-induced ERK phosphorylation in human H295R adrenal cells compared with angiotensin II alone

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Twenty-four-hour peptide exposure reduced the subsequent angiotensin-II ERK phosphorylation response.

    Experimental source · PMC13680780 · Supplementary Figure S3B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Twenty-four-hour atrial natriuretic peptide pretreatment attenuates angiotensin-II-induced ERK phosphorylation in human H295R adrenal cells compared with angiotensin II alone.

    a longer 24-hour pretreatment significantly attenuated

    Atrial Natriuretic Peptide Regulates Zona Glomerulosa Growth and Aldosterone Release.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  28. Whole-body Ghr ablation initiated at twelve months improves insulin sensitivity in male mice at twenty-three months relative to controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Male insulin sensitivity improved at nineteen and twenty-three months, P < 0.0001.

    Experimental source · PMC13545643 · Figure 2h-j
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Whole-body Ghr ablation initiated at twelve months improves insulin sensitivity in male mice at twenty-three months relative to controls.

    Insulin sensitivity was significantly improved only in male

    Midlife Growth Hormone Receptor Ablation Extends Healthy Lifespan and Induces Sex-Specific Hepatic Transcriptional Changes at Single-Cell Resolution.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  29. Twenty-eight days of HFI-419 treatment preserves glomerular filtration in twenty-seven- to twenty-eight-month-old wild-type mice relative to vehicle treatment

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Treatment prevented the approximately 22% filtration decline seen in vehicle controls, P < 0.01.

    Experimental source · PMC13591257 · Figure 2A
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Twenty-eight days of HFI-419 treatment preserves glomerular filtration in twenty-seven- to twenty-eight-month-old wild-type mice relative to vehicle treatment.

    prevented the age-related decline in GFR

    IRAP deficiency preserves renal function and attenuates pathology in aged mice.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  30. LSD1 overexpression accelerates gamma-H2AX clearance after 5 Gy irradiation in mouse 3T3 fibroblasts relative to vector controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. LSD1 overexpression delayed gamma-H2AX resolution through 48 hours.

    Experimental source · PMC13574142 · Figure 4B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    LSD1 overexpression accelerates gamma-H2AX clearance after 5 Gy irradiation in mouse 3T3 fibroblasts relative to vector controls.

    delayed γH2AX resolution up to 48 hours

    LSD1-mediated demethylation of the DNA damage response factor ATM promotes senescence and organ aging.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  31. Osteocyte-specific Rankl deletion extends median lifespan of Zmpste24-null progeroid mice compared with Rankl-intact progeroid controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Pooled median lifespan rose from 230 to 276 days; p=0.0096.

    Experimental source · PMC13454561 · Figure 4a
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Osteocyte-specific Rankl deletion extends median lifespan of Zmpste24-null progeroid mice compared with Rankl-intact progeroid controls.

    a median lifespan of 276 days versus 230 days

    Targeting RANKL Prevents Bone Loss, Improves Muscle Function and Extends Lifespan in Progeroid Mice.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  32. L-carnitine reduces liver metastatic foci after intrasplenic injection of ALDH6A1-deficient AGS gastric cancer cells into nude mice relative to untreated deficient-cell controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. L-carnitine reduced metastatic foci.

    Experimental source · PMC13344286 · Figure 8E,F
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    L-carnitine reduces liver metastatic foci after intrasplenic injection of ALDH6A1-deficient AGS gastric cancer cells into nude mice relative to untreated deficient-cell controls.

    markedly reduced metastatic foci

    Reprogramming of valine metabolism mediated by abnormally low ALDH6A1 expression promotes invasive metastasis of gastric cancer.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  33. Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Mapk14 deletion increases aortic collagen deposition in eighty-six-week-old hyperlipidemic mice relative to age- and sex-matched controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Collagen deposition decreased by Picrosirius Red quantification.

    Experimental source · PMC13605429 · Figure 5C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Mapk14 deletion increases aortic collagen deposition in eighty-six-week-old hyperlipidemic mice relative to age- and sex-matched controls.

    decreased collagen deposition in KO mice

    Smooth Muscle Cell MAPK14 Promotes Vascular Calcification During Hyperlipidemic Aging.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  34. Myeloid-specific CK2-alpha deletion extends median lifespan in male mice compared with floxed controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Median lifespan fell from 733.5 to 502 days; 28 mice per group, p<0.001.

    Experimental source · PMC13582914 · Figure 6b
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Myeloid-specific CK2-alpha deletion extends median lifespan in male mice compared with floxed controls.

    502 days (cKO) vs. 733.5 days (control)

    CK2α restriction of STING accumulation underlies systemic aging.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Opus 5.5.

  35. Psme4/PA200 deletion reduces urethane-induced lung tumor counts in middle-aged mice relative to wild-type controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. PA200 deletion significantly reduced tumor counts, particularly in middle-aged mice.

    Experimental source · PMC13665431 · Figure 6b,c
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Psme4/PA200 deletion reduces urethane-induced lung tumor counts in middle-aged mice relative to wild-type controls.

    PA200 deficiency significantly reduced tumor numbers

    The p53-PA200 Feedback Loop Modulates Age-Dependent Tumorigenesis.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  36. ORY-1001 at 0.04 mg/kg every other day for eight weeks reduces kidney p16 protein after 7 Gy irradiation in C57BL/6J mice relative to saline

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. LSD1 inhibition reduced radiation-associated p16 and p21 in kidney tissue.

    Experimental source · PMC13574142 · Figure 3C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    ORY-1001 at 0.04 mg/kg every other day for eight weeks reduces kidney p16 protein after 7 Gy irradiation in C57BL/6J mice relative to saline.

    ORY-1001 treatment reduced both mRNA and protein levels

    LSD1-mediated demethylation of the DNA damage response factor ATM promotes senescence and organ aging.

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  37. TRPV4 knockout reduces skin mitochondrial reactive oxygen species after seven days of topical imiquimod in mice compared with imiquimod-treated wild-type controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Knockout significantly attenuated the imiquimod-induced MitoSOX signal increase.

    Experimental source · PMC13605115 · Figure 1G,H
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    TRPV4 knockout reduces skin mitochondrial reactive oxygen species after seven days of topical imiquimod in mice compared with imiquimod-treated wild-type controls.

    TRPV4 deletion significantly attenuated the IMQ-induced ROS level increment

    TRPV4 Regulates Imiquimod (IMQ)-Induced Psoriasis via CaMKKβ/AMPK and Calmodulin/Akt-Mediated Autophagic Signaling Pathways in Juvenile Murine Keratinocytes.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  38. Skeletal-muscle-specific Pla2g6/iPLA2-beta deletion preserves extensor digitorum longus specific force after mouse muscle denervation compared with denervated wild-type controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Denervated specific force was 20 versus 16 N/cm² after deletion and in wild-type controls.

    Experimental source · PMC13378579 · Figure 1F
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Skeletal-muscle-specific Pla2g6/iPLA2-beta deletion preserves extensor digitorum longus specific force after mouse muscle denervation compared with denervated wild-type controls.

    20 N/cm2

    iPLA&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;β: A novel store-operated calcium entry modulator contributing to muscle dysfunction during denervation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  39. Four days of folate deprivation increases spontaneous interleukin-6 secretion by human HK-2 renal tubular cells compared with folate-replete culture

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Folate deficiency increased interleukin-6 secretion without lipopolysaccharide stimulation.

    Experimental source · PMC13665185 · Figure 1A
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Four days of folate deprivation increases spontaneous interleukin-6 secretion by human HK-2 renal tubular cells compared with folate-replete culture.

    folate deficiency significantly increased IL-6 and MCP-1 secretion

    Folate Deficiency Drives Metabolic Dysfunction, Oxidative Stress, and Inflammation in HK-2 Renal Tubular Cells.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  40. Ak050834 deletion further reduces migration of D-galactose-treated primary mouse aortic smooth muscle cells relative to D-galactose-treated wild-type cells

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Deletion rescued migration, increasing migrated-cell counts and scratch closure.

    Experimental source · PMC13483296 · Figure 5D-G
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ak050834 deletion further reduces migration of D-galactose-treated primary mouse aortic smooth muscle cells relative to D-galactose-treated wild-type cells.

    significantly rescued the D‐gal‐induced impairment of migratory capacity

    AK050834 Deficiency Prevents Vascular Aging via Opposite Regulation of Two Senescence-Sensitive Genes ATF3 and p21.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  41. Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Sirt7 deletion reduces abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture in Apoe-null mice receiving four weeks of angiotensin II relative to littermate controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Sirt7 deletion increased aneurysm rupture and mortality.

    Experimental source · PMC13434582 · Figure 2h,i
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Sirt7 deletion reduces abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture in Apoe-null mice receiving four weeks of angiotensin II relative to littermate controls.

    increased aortic diameters, AAA incidence, rupture rate, mortality

    Deacetylation of SRF catalyzed by SIRT7 protects against abdominal aortic aneurysm formation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra.

  42. Growth hormone given every other day for three weeks lowers testicular gamma-H2AX phosphorylation in aged male mice relative to untreated aged controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Growth hormone reduced testicular H2AX phosphorylation in aged males.

    Experimental source · PMC13616408 · Figure 5G
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Growth hormone given every other day for three weeks lowers testicular gamma-H2AX phosphorylation in aged male mice relative to untreated aged controls.

    a significant reduction in H2AX phosphorylation levels

    Grtp1 Safeguards Against Paternal Reproductive Aging and Intergenerational Behavioral Deficits by Preserving Redox Homeostasis.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  43. HBEGF overexpression in Prx1-lineage skeletal progenitors increases cartilage and bone area ten days after femoral fracture in sixteen-month-old mice relative to age-matched wild-type mice

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Cartilage and bone area increased significantly at day ten.

    Experimental source · PMC13471064 · Figure 3A-D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    HBEGF overexpression in Prx1-lineage skeletal progenitors increases cartilage and bone area ten days after femoral fracture in sixteen-month-old mice relative to age-matched wild-type mice.

    significantly increased cartilage and bone area at 10 dpf

    Loss of EGFR activity in skeletal stem/progenitor cells is associated with impaired fracture healing in aged mice.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  44. Four weeks of navitoclax treatment improves glucose tolerance in sixteen-week-old mice with pancreatic beta-cell-specific Fmo3 deletion relative to vehicle treatment

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Treatment improved glucose tolerance and glucose-stimulated insulin secretion.

    Experimental source · PMC13518901 · Supplementary Figure 9e,f
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Four weeks of navitoclax treatment improves glucose tolerance in sixteen-week-old mice with pancreatic beta-cell-specific Fmo3 deletion relative to vehicle treatment.

    potentiated GSIS and improved glucose tolerance

    β-cell FMO3-produced TMAO prevents NF-κB-mediated senescence and inflammation in ageing and diabetic conditions.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  45. Deleting membrane-bound COMT improves PC12 cell viability after twenty-four hours of 200 micromolar hydrogen peroxide compared with wild-type cells

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. COMT-deficient cells had significantly lower viability after 200 micromolar peroxide.

    Experimental source · PMC13598237 · Figure 1B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Deleting membrane-bound COMT improves PC12 cell viability after twenty-four hours of 200 micromolar hydrogen peroxide compared with wild-type cells.

    the viability of MB-COMT −/− cells was significantly lower

    Catechol-&lt;i&gt;O&lt;/i&gt;-methyltransferase connects dopamine homeostasis to redox signaling, metal homeostasis, and protein folding in schizophrenia.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  46. Nanoparticle-delivered Sema3g siRNA reduces hepatic hydroxyproline during carbon-tetrachloride-induced fibrosis in male endothelial-Fbxw7-knockout mice relative to scramble siRNA

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Hydroxyproline and histological collagen measurements showed decreased fibrosis.

    Experimental source · PMC13631353 · Figure 6G-I
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Nanoparticle-delivered Sema3g siRNA reduces hepatic hydroxyproline during carbon-tetrachloride-induced fibrosis in male endothelial-Fbxw7-knockout mice relative to scramble siRNA.

    decreased fibrosis measured by hydroxyproline content

    FBXW7 mitigates hepatic fibrosis by degrading NOTCH1 to transcriptionally silence SEMA3G in liver sinusoidal endothelial cells.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  47. Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Mapk14 deletion reduces aortic-arch calcium deposition in eighty-six-week-old hyperlipidemic mice on normal chow relative to age- and sex-matched controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Von Kossa and Alizarin Red measurements showed less mineral deposition.

    Experimental source · PMC13605429 · Figure 4B-E
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Vascular-smooth-muscle-cell-specific Mapk14 deletion reduces aortic-arch calcium deposition in eighty-six-week-old hyperlipidemic mice on normal chow relative to age- and sex-matched controls.

    reduced calcified area in both male and female mice

    Smooth Muscle Cell MAPK14 Promotes Vascular Calcification During Hyperlipidemic Aging.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  48. Twenty-four hours of alpha-synuclein treatment increases colocalization of lipid droplets with lysosomes in macrophages relative to untreated macrophages

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. LysoTracker and lipid-droplet colocalization markedly decreased.

    Experimental source · PMC13620287 · Figure 4c,e
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Twenty-four hours of alpha-synuclein treatment increases colocalization of lipid droplets with lysosomes in macrophages relative to untreated macrophages.

    was markedly reduced

    α-Synuclein Promotes Atherosclerosis by Impairing Macrophage Autophagic Flux.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  49. Sost deletion reduces tibial cortical vascular porosity in seventy-eight-week-old mice compared with littermate controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Vascular porosity was 332% greater in elderly knockout mice.

    Experimental source · PMC13400213 · Figure 4A; Table 4
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Sost deletion reduces tibial cortical vascular porosity in seventy-eight-week-old mice compared with littermate controls.

    vascular porosity (332%)

    &lt;i&gt;Sost&lt;/i&gt; deficiency leads to greater bone vascular porosity, but similar osteocyte lacunar properties with increasing age.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  50. Oxaliplatin combined with anti-PD-1 and anti-ACBP/DBI antibodies prolongs survival of female C57BL/6J mice bearing MCA205 fibrosarcomas with Lmna-sufficient T cells versus vehicle

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Six of nine treated females survived long-term; vehicle animals died by day 25.

    Experimental source · PMC13596399 · Figure 1B,C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Oxaliplatin combined with anti-PD-1 and anti-ACBP/DBI antibodies prolongs survival of female C57BL/6J mice bearing MCA205 fibrosarcomas with Lmna-sufficient T cells versus vehicle.

    permitting protracted survival of 6 out of 9 mice

    ACBP/DBI Neutralization Stimulates Anticancer Immune Responses by Upregulating Lamin A in T Cells.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  51. Myeloid-specific Rora deletion decreases the proportion of leaky laser-induced choroidal neovascular lesions in eight-month-old mice relative to floxed controls

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Leaky lesions increased from 41% in controls to 84% in the knockout group.

    Experimental source · PMC13615061 · Figure 4F
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Myeloid-specific Rora deletion decreases the proportion of leaky laser-induced choroidal neovascular lesions in eight-month-old mice relative to floxed controls.

    84% of Rorafl/fl;LysMCre CNV lesions were graded as leaky

    Myeloid deficiency of RORα exacerbates lipid dysregulation and laser-induced choroidal neovascularization.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High.

  52. Oxamate inhibition of lactate dehydrogenase increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species in folate-deficient HK-2 renal tubular cells compared with untreated deficient cells

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Inhibiting endogenous lactate production reduced mitochondrial oxidative stress.

    Experimental source · PMC13665185 · Figure 4C
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Oxamate inhibition of lactate dehydrogenase increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species in folate-deficient HK-2 renal tubular cells compared with untreated deficient cells.

    reduced both intracellular and mitochondrial ROS levels

    Folate Deficiency Drives Metabolic Dysfunction, Oxidative Stress, and Inflammation in HK-2 Renal Tubular Cells.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  53. Glucagon-receptor-blocking antibody lowers the glucose-tolerance-test area under the curve in aged mice relative to control antibody

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Glucose concentrations and the area under the curve decreased.

    Experimental source · PMC13670565 · Figure 3C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Glucagon-receptor-blocking antibody lowers the glucose-tolerance-test area under the curve in aged mice relative to control antibody.

    a reduced area under the curve

    Glucagon receptor blockade protects spermatogenesis by enhancing PFKFB3-mediated lactate production in Sertoli cells.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  54. Endothelial Fbxw7 deletion reduces hepatic collagen deposition after carbon tetrachloride exposure in male mice relative to control mice

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Knockout exacerbated fibrosis by hydroxyproline, Sirius Red and COL1A1 measurements.

    Experimental source · PMC13631353 · Figure 1E-G
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Endothelial Fbxw7 deletion reduces hepatic collagen deposition after carbon tetrachloride exposure in male mice relative to control mice.

    enhanced fibrosis measured by hydroxyproline content

    FBXW7 mitigates hepatic fibrosis by degrading NOTCH1 to transcriptionally silence SEMA3G in liver sinusoidal endothelial cells.

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  55. Ak050834 deletion reduces vascular beta-galactosidase staining in naturally aged mice relative to wild-type aged mice

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Vascular beta-galactosidase staining decreased markedly.

    Experimental source · PMC13483296 · Figure 4A,B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ak050834 deletion reduces vascular beta-galactosidase staining in naturally aged mice relative to wild-type aged mice.

    markedly reduced the expression of β‐galactosidase

    AK050834 Deficiency Prevents Vascular Aging via Opposite Regulation of Two Senescence-Sensitive Genes ATF3 and p21.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  56. pyr-1 RNA interference extends Caenorhabditis elegans lifespan under normal culture conditions relative to empty-vector RNA interference

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. pyr-1 disruption shortened lifespan and citrulline rescued the reduction.

    Experimental source · PMC13490582 · Figure 2i,j
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    pyr-1 RNA interference extends Caenorhabditis elegans lifespan under normal culture conditions relative to empty-vector RNA interference.

    led to shorter lifespan than the control

    Citrulline drives age-related lipid deposition for healthspan.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  57. The GSK3-beta inhibitor SB216763 reduces lung fibrosis in mice with conditional beta-PIX deletion in alveolar type-II cells relative to vehicle treatment

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Masson's trichrome staining showed reduced fibrosis.

    Experimental source · PMC13558768 · Figure 5b
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    The GSK3-beta inhibitor SB216763 reduces lung fibrosis in mice with conditional beta-PIX deletion in alveolar type-II cells relative to vehicle treatment.

    SB reduced fibrosis in the KO mice

    Alveolar epithelial depletion of βPAK-interacting exchange factor drives spontaneous pulmonary fibrosis by impairing stemness.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  58. Dietary citrulline at 10 mM extends Caenorhabditis elegans median survival under normal culture conditions relative to unsupplemented controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Median survival increased from 14.5 to 17.0 days.

    Experimental source · PMC13490582 · Figure 1j,k
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Dietary citrulline at 10 mM extends Caenorhabditis elegans median survival under normal culture conditions relative to unsupplemented controls.

    from 14.5 ± 0.5 to 17.0 ± 0.8 days

    Citrulline drives age-related lipid deposition for healthspan.

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  59. Endothelial-specific Piezo1 deletion reduces hippocampal sodium-fluorescein leakage after anesthesia and surgery in mice relative to Piezo1-intact controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Sodium-fluorescein leakage significantly decreased.

    Experimental source · PMC13462922 · Figure 6B-D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Endothelial-specific Piezo1 deletion reduces hippocampal sodium-fluorescein leakage after anesthesia and surgery in mice relative to Piezo1-intact controls.

    significantly reduced NaFL leakage

    Inhibiting the Endothelial Mechanosensitive Channel Piezo1 Restores Hippocampal Blood-Brain Barrier Integrity to Improve Anesthesia- and Surgery-Induced Cognitive Decline.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  60. Intra-articular AAV-driven constitutive ERK5 activation lowers knee cartilage OARSI scores eight weeks after meniscal destabilization in adult mice relative to control AAV

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Activated ERK5 produced higher OARSI damage grades; six mice per group.

    Experimental source · PMC13538362 · Figure 3d
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Intra-articular AAV-driven constitutive ERK5 activation lowers knee cartilage OARSI scores eight weeks after meniscal destabilization in adult mice relative to control AAV.

    higher OARSI grades relative to the AAV-NC group

    Inhibition of ERK5 activity ameliorates osteoarthritis by suppressing NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated chondrocyte pyroptosis.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  61. Muscle-specific Pla2g6/iPLA2-beta deletion further reduces depolarization-evoked force in denervated mouse fast-twitch fibers compared with denervated wild-type fibers

    Contradicted by the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Deletion preserved depolarization response near 30% of maximum versus below 5% in denervated wild-type fibers.

    Experimental source · PMC13378579 · Figure 5A,B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Muscle-specific Pla2g6/iPLA2-beta deletion further reduces depolarization-evoked force in denervated mouse fast-twitch fibers compared with denervated wild-type fibers.

    deletion of iPLA2β significantly preserved excitability

    iPLA&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;β: A novel store-operated calcium entry modulator contributing to muscle dysfunction during denervation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  62. The PPAR-gamma antagonist T0070907 reduces laser-induced choroidal neovascular lesion size in two-to-three-month-old myeloid-specific Rora-knockout mice compared with vehicle

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. PPAR-gamma inhibition significantly reduced neovascular lesion size in the knockout mice.

    Experimental source · PMC13615061 · Figure 9A
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    The PPAR-gamma antagonist T0070907 reduces laser-induced choroidal neovascular lesion size in two-to-three-month-old myeloid-specific Rora-knockout mice compared with vehicle.

    significantly attenuated CNV lesion size

    Myeloid deficiency of RORα exacerbates lipid dysregulation and laser-induced choroidal neovascularization.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  63. Hepatocyte-specific Sirt6 deletion increases hepatic Sult1e1 gene expression in aged female mice relative to floxed controls

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Sult1e1 increased 7.54-fold, P = 0.035.

    Experimental source · PMC13467427 · Figure 6D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Hepatocyte-specific Sirt6 deletion increases hepatic Sult1e1 gene expression in aged female mice relative to floxed controls.

    Sult1e1 (+7.54-fold, p = 0.035)

    Hepatic SIRT6 Deficiency Accelerates Female-Specific Aging Through SULT1E1-Mediated Estrogen Depletion.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  64. Skeletal-muscle-specific Crls1 deletion decreases the proportion of type IIb fibers in mouse extensor digitorum longus compared with control littermates

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Crls1 deletion shifted EDL away from type IIb toward oxidative IIa and IIx fibers.

    Experimental source · PMC13661251 · Figure 2d,e
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Skeletal-muscle-specific Crls1 deletion decreases the proportion of type IIb fibers in mouse extensor digitorum longus compared with control littermates.

    a significant decrease in the most glycolytic type IIb fibers

    Mitochondrial membrane lipid cardiolipin controls fiber-type adaptations in aging muscle via estrogen-related receptor γ.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  65. Re-expression of wild-type human GSR restores resistance to RSL3-induced ferroptosis in Gsr-knockout mouse 4T1 breast cancer cells relative to empty-vector knockout cells

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Wild-type GSR fully restored resistance; a catalytically inactive mutant did not.

    Experimental source · PMC13531920 · Figure 1H
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Re-expression of wild-type human GSR restores resistance to RSL3-induced ferroptosis in Gsr-knockout mouse 4T1 breast cancer cells relative to empty-vector knockout cells.

    fully restored ferroptosis resistance

    Glutathione reductase deficiency potentiates the immunogenicity of ferroptosis and cuproptosis via amplified reactive oxygen species accumulation and cGAS-STING pathway activation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  66. Dietary pterostilbene at 100 mg per kg of diet reduces weight gain during thirteen weeks of high-fat feeding in male mice relative to high-fat diet alone

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Pterostilbene reduced high-fat-diet weight gain at 100 to 200 mg/kg diet.

    Experimental source · PMC13599633 · Figure 2B
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Dietary pterostilbene at 100 mg per kg of diet reduces weight gain during thirteen weeks of high-fat feeding in male mice relative to high-fat diet alone.

    PTS exerted the effect at 100 to 200 mg/kg

    ERα/SIRT1 signaling mediates the metabolic regulatory benefits of pterostilbene.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  67. Nicotinamide mononucleotide supplementation reduces abdominal aortic aneurysm incidence in angiotensin-II-infused Apoe-null mice relative to saline

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Supplementation reduced aneurysm incidence, aortic dilation and mortality.

    Experimental source · PMC13434582 · Figure 7b-f
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Nicotinamide mononucleotide supplementation reduces abdominal aortic aneurysm incidence in angiotensin-II-infused Apoe-null mice relative to saline.

    markedly reduced aortic dilation, AAA incidence, mortality

    Deacetylation of SRF catalyzed by SIRT7 protects against abdominal aortic aneurysm formation.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  68. Chronic diosmin supplementation improves acetylcholine-induced vascular relaxation in aged rats relative to vehicle-treated aged rats

    Confirmed in the recorded experiment

    Observed outcome. Diosmin partially restored vascular relaxation to acetylcholine.

    Experimental source · PMC13512630 · Figure 1C,D
    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Chronic diosmin supplementation improves acetylcholine-induced vascular relaxation in aged rats relative to vehicle-treated aged rats.

    induced a partial restoration of vascular relaxation

    Diosmin Attenuates Age-Associated Vascular Oxidative Stress and Endothelial Dysfunction in Aged Rats.

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

Models and coin on identical hypotheses

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Sonnet 5.572.2%39 / 54Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +20.3 percentage points76.1%35 / 46Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points100543915463511
GPT-6 Astra67.2%41 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.3 percentage points76.9%30 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24.8 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10061412039309
Gemini 4 Argon High80.4%37 / 46Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points75.9%41 / 54Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.8 percentage points74%37 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points10046379544113
Grok 4.576.6%36 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.7 percentage points73.6%39 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.5 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points100473611533914
Opus 5.568.9%42 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points79.5%31 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.4 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points10061421939318
Coin51.9%27 / 5252.1%25 / 4854%27 / 5050%25 / 50100522725482523

All 80 combinations and vote thresholds

These configurations are compared on the same dataset. A best observed score is exploratory; it requires a new independent dataset for validation.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
72.2%39 / 54Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +20.3 percentage points76.1%35 / 46Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points100543915463511
67.2%41 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.3 percentage points76.9%30 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24.8 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10061412039309
64.3%45 / 70Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.4 percentage points83.3%25 / 30Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +31.3 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points50%25 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points10070452530255
77.8%35 / 45Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +25.9 percentage points72.7%40 / 55Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +20.6 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +16 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100453510554015
80.4%37 / 46Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points75.9%41 / 54Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.8 percentage points74%37 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points10046379544113
70.5%43 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +18.6 percentage points82.1%32 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points86%43 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points64%32 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points10061431839327
84.6%33 / 39Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +32.7 percentage points72.1%44 / 61Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points66%33 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10039336614417
67.2%45 / 67Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.2 percentage points84.8%28 / 33Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +32.8 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points56%28 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points10067452233285
82.5%33 / 40Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points71.7%43 / 60Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +19.6 percentage points66%33 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points86%43 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points10040337604317
64.8%46 / 71Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points86.2%25 / 29Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +34.1 percentage points92%46 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points50%25 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points10071462529254
73.2%41 / 56Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +21.3 percentage points79.5%35 / 44Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points10056411544359
88.2%30 / 34Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +36.3 percentage points69.7%46 / 66Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +17.6 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points92%46 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points10034304664620
76.6%36 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.7 percentage points73.6%39 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.5 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points100473611533914
68.3%43 / 63Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.3 percentage points81.1%30 / 37Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29 percentage points86%43 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10063432037307
84.2%32 / 38Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +32.3 percentage points71%44 / 62Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +18.9 percentage points64%32 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10038326624418
68.7%46 / 67Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points87.9%29 / 33Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +35.8 percentage points92%46 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points58%29 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points10067462133294
75.6%31 / 41Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +23.7 percentage points67.8%40 / 59Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +15.7 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100413110594019
63.9%46 / 72Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points85.7%24 / 28Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +33.6 percentage points92%46 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10072462628244
75%42 / 56Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +23.1 percentage points81.8%36 / 44Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points10056421444368
82.4%28 / 34Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +30.4 percentage points66.7%44 / 66Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +14.6 percentage points56%28 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +2 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10034286664422
76.3%45 / 59Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.3 percentage points87.8%36 / 41Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +35.7 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points10059451441365
82.4%28 / 34Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +30.4 percentage points66.7%44 / 66Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +14.6 percentage points56%28 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +2 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10034286664422
69.2%45 / 65Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +17.3 percentage points85.7%30 / 35Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +33.6 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10065452035305
77.4%41 / 53Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +25.4 percentage points80.9%38 / 47Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +28.8 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points10053411247389
89.7%26 / 29Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +37.7 percentage points66.2%47 / 71Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +14.1 percentage points52%26 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10029263714724
67.1%47 / 70Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.2 percentage points90%27 / 30Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +37.9 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10070472330273
79.2%42 / 53Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +27.3 percentage points83%39 / 47Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.9 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points10053421147398
80.6%25 / 31Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.7 percentage points63.8%44 / 69Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +11.7 percentage points50%25 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -4 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10031256694425
64.4%47 / 73Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points88.9%24 / 27Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +36.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10073472627243
72.9%43 / 59Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +21 percentage points82.9%34 / 41Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.8 percentage points86%43 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points68%34 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points10059431641347
80%40 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.1 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.9 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100504010504010
88.5%23 / 26Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points63.5%47 / 74Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points46%23 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10026233744727
68.9%42 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points79.5%31 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.4 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points10061421939318
66.2%45 / 68Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +14.3 percentage points84.4%27 / 32Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +32.3 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10068452332275
76.6%36 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.7 percentage points73.6%39 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.5 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points100473611533914
63.4%45 / 71Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +11.5 percentage points82.8%24 / 29Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.7 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10071452629245
74.5%38 / 51Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +22.6 percentage points75.5%37 / 49Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.4 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points74%37 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points100513813493712
64.4%47 / 73Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points88.9%24 / 27Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +36.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10073472627243
65.1%41 / 63Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +13.2 percentage points75.7%28 / 37Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.6 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points56%28 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points10063412237289
85%34 / 40Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +33.1 percentage points73.3%44 / 60Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.2 percentage points68%34 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10040346604416
68.8%44 / 64Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +16.8 percentage points83.3%30 / 36Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +31.3 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10064442036306
81.4%35 / 43Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +29.5 percentage points73.7%42 / 57Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +21.6 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +16 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points10043358574215
66.2%45 / 68Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +14.3 percentage points84.4%27 / 32Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +32.3 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10068452332275
73.7%42 / 57Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points81.4%35 / 43Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points10057421543358
86.1%31 / 36Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +34.2 percentage points70.3%45 / 64Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +18.2 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points10036315644519
64.4%47 / 73Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points88.9%24 / 27Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +36.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10073472627243
71.4%40 / 56Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +19.5 percentage points77.3%34 / 44Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +25.2 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points68%34 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +18 percentage points100564016443410
84.6%33 / 39Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +32.7 percentage points72.1%44 / 61Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points66%33 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10039336614417
64.4%47 / 73Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points88.9%24 / 27Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +36.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10073472627243
66.7%44 / 66Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +14.7 percentage points82.4%28 / 34Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.3 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points56%28 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points10066442234286
76%38 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.1 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +23.9 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points100503812503812
90.9%30 / 33Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points70.1%47 / 67Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +18.1 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10033303674720
70.1%47 / 67Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +18.2 percentage points90.9%30 / 33Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +38.8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points60%30 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points10067472033303
75.6%31 / 41Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +23.7 percentage points67.8%40 / 59Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +15.7 percentage points62%31 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100413110594019
67.1%47 / 70Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.2 percentage points90%27 / 30Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +37.9 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10070472330273
70.7%41 / 58Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +18.8 percentage points78.6%33 / 42Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +26.5 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points66%33 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +16 percentage points10058411742339
85.3%29 / 34Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +33.4 percentage points68.2%45 / 66Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +16.1 percentage points58%29 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points10034295664521
64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
73.7%42 / 57Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points81.4%35 / 43Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points70%35 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points10057421543358
76.3%29 / 38Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +24.4 percentage points66.1%41 / 62Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points58%29 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points10038299624121
64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
65.7%44 / 67Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +13.7 percentage points81.8%27 / 33Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10067442333276
78%39 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +26.1 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +25.9 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points78%39 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points100503911503911
84.4%27 / 32Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points66.2%45 / 68Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +14.1 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points10032275684523
69.1%47 / 68Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +17.2 percentage points90.6%29 / 32Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points58%29 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points10068472132293
77.8%42 / 54Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +25.9 percentage points82.6%38 / 46Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30.5 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points10054421246388
81.3%26 / 32Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points64.7%44 / 68Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +12.6 percentage points52%26 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10032266684424
67.1%47 / 70Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +15.2 percentage points90%27 / 30Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +37.9 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10070472330273
70.5%43 / 61Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +18.6 percentage points82.1%32 / 39Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points86%43 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points64%32 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points10061431839327
80%40 / 50Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.1 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +27.9 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +26 percentage points80%40 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points100504010504010
88.9%24 / 27Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +37 percentage points64.4%47 / 73Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +12.3 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -6 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10027243734726
64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
71.4%45 / 63Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +19.5 percentage points86.5%32 / 37Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +34.4 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points64%32 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +14 percentage points10063451837325
80.9%38 / 47Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.9 percentage points77.4%41 / 53Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +25.3 percentage points76%38 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points82%41 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +32 percentage points10047389534112
80.6%25 / 31Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +28.7 percentage points63.8%44 / 69Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +11.7 percentage points50%25 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -4 percentage points88%44 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points10031256694425
64.9%48 / 74Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +12.9 percentage points92.3%24 / 26Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points96%48 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +42 percentage points48%24 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: -2 percentage points10074482626242
66.2%45 / 68Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +14.3 percentage points84.4%27 / 32Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +32.3 percentage points90%45 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points54%27 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points10068452332275
75%42 / 56Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +23.1 percentage points81.8%36 / 44Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points72%36 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points10056421444368
82.2%37 / 45Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +30.3 percentage points76.4%42 / 55Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +24.3 percentage points74%37 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points84%42 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +34 percentage points10045378554213
88.5%23 / 26Coin: 51.9% (27 / 52)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points63.5%47 / 74Coin: 52.1% (25 / 48)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points46%23 / 50Coin: 54% (27 / 50)Difference from the coin: -8 percentage points94%47 / 50Coin: 50% (25 / 50)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points10026233744727
How the cohort and experiment were fixed

The Codex AI assistant formulated two distinct intervention/readout claims per paper, one confirmed and one contradicted by its experiments. These are constructed dependent examples, not independent human expert adjudications. Uncertainty resamples whole source papers. The 50/50 class balance was hidden from the predictors.

The earliest recorded article dates are after 30 June 2026. Six-channel checks excluded detected earlier preprints. This provides temporal evidence, while absence from model training cannot be guaranteed.

Intervals jointly resample source papers 10,000 times. Both claims from one paper remain together. Each 95% percentile interval describes sampling uncertainty within this constructed cohort. Intervals are individual comparisons without multiplicity adjustment.

Grok receives the exact historical final-answer control in both system and user tail. The scientific question and hypothesis are identical across providers; all technical instructions and requests are downloadable.

Before these new calls, the existing extraction rule was fixed as the primary analysis. For each request it takes the first complete reply containing exactly one JSON object with all original identities and explicit boolean forecasts, allowing accompanying prose. Ambiguous or incomplete replies and identity/value substitutions are rejected. Both the strict-format analysis and all full replies are retained, within the same two-response limit.

Each claim allows two logical response attempts. Internal transport retries are counted separately. Every full reply, request identity and transport attempt count is retained; reference outcomes never trigger retries.

Data, protocol and reconstruction

Simple forecasts for 250 hypotheses generated by Grok

A separate cohort of 250 saved Grok 4.5 hypotheses from the same 50 original questions, generated with the neutral multi-step scheme. Five predictors, including Opus 5.5, answer a simple experimental-confirmation question.

For each hypothesis below, will it be confirmed experimentally?

Each fresh request contains the complete original background, research question and five anonymously reordered hypotheses. The generator identity, article outcomes and judge scores are withheld. All 80 subset/threshold rules use identical valid identities.

The reference uses the saved scores of GPT-5.6 Sol, Opus 5.5 and Gemini 4 Argon Medium. At least two of the three judges must assign a score of 3 or more for mechanism correspondence, or 4 or 5 for high correspondence.

These metrics measure forecasts of article correspondence. The complete experimental outcome of each generated hypothesis was not separately adjudicated. Hypotheses below the correspondence threshold may still be biologically correct.

Sonnet and Opus are both Anthropic models. Five predictors represent four companies; their votes may be dependent.

Opus 5.5 and Gemini 4 Argon participated in the original article-correspondence judging. Gemini used the Medium variant for judging and the High variant for forecasts. Some forecasts are therefore compared with a reference formed partly by the same base models.

Reference-positive hypotheses: 42 of 250. Negative reference outcomes mean the selected correspondence threshold was not reached.

The main analysis accepts an explicit JSON yes/no forecast even when the model adds prose. The strict-format analysis remains available separately.

Four separate forecast metrics against the recorded coin

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250. Technical omissions: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 129, comprising 22 correct and 107 incorrect forecasts. No: 121, comprising 101 correct and 20 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 129 hypotheses. Of these, 22 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.17.1%22 / 129
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 121 hypotheses. Of these, 101 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.83.5%101 / 121
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 42 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 22 of these.52.4%22 / 42
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 208 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 101 of these.48.6%101 / 208

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250. Technical omissions: 0.

60 forecasts recovered from answers with additional prose.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 48, comprising 21 correct and 27 incorrect forecasts. No: 202, comprising 181 correct and 21 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 48 hypotheses. Of these, 21 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.43.8%21 / 48Coin: 17.1% (22 / 129)Difference from the coin: +26.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 202 hypotheses. Of these, 181 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.89.6%181 / 202Coin: 83.5% (101 / 121)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 42 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 21 of these.50%21 / 42Coin: 52.4% (22 / 42)Difference from the coin: -2.4 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 208 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 181 of these.87%181 / 208Coin: 48.6% (101 / 208)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250. Technical omissions: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 56, comprising 25 correct and 31 incorrect forecasts. No: 194, comprising 177 correct and 17 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 56 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.44.6%25 / 56Coin: 17.1% (22 / 129)Difference from the coin: +27.6 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 194 hypotheses. Of these, 177 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.91.2%177 / 194Coin: 83.5% (101 / 121)Difference from the coin: +7.8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 42 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 25 of these.59.5%25 / 42Coin: 52.4% (22 / 42)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 208 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 177 of these.85.1%177 / 208Coin: 48.6% (101 / 208)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 245 of 250. Technical omissions: 5.

Usable forecasts: 245. Yes: 53, comprising 23 correct and 30 incorrect forecasts. No: 192, comprising 174 correct and 18 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 53 hypotheses. Of these, 23 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.43.4%23 / 53Coin: 17.5% (22 / 126)Difference from the coin: +25.9 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 192 hypotheses. Of these, 174 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.90.6%174 / 192Coin: 84% (100 / 119)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 41 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 23 of these.56.1%23 / 41Coin: 53.7% (22 / 41)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 204 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 174 of these.85.3%174 / 204Coin: 49% (100 / 204)Difference from the coin: +36.3 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 245 of 250. Technical omissions: 5.

Usable forecasts: 245. Yes: 113, comprising 31 correct and 82 incorrect forecasts. No: 132, comprising 122 correct and 10 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 113 hypotheses. Of these, 31 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.27.4%31 / 113Coin: 17.5% (22 / 126)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 132 hypotheses. Of these, 122 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92.4%122 / 132Coin: 84% (100 / 119)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 41 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 31 of these.75.6%31 / 41Coin: 53.7% (22 / 41)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 204 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 122 of these.59.8%122 / 204Coin: 49% (100 / 204)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250. Technical omissions: 0.

25 forecasts recovered from answers with additional prose.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 59, comprising 23 correct and 36 incorrect forecasts. No: 191, comprising 172 correct and 19 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 59 hypotheses. Of these, 23 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.39%23 / 59Coin: 17.1% (22 / 129)Difference from the coin: +21.9 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 191 hypotheses. Of these, 172 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.90.1%172 / 191Coin: 83.5% (101 / 121)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 42 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 23 of these.54.8%23 / 42Coin: 52.4% (22 / 42)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 208 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 172 of these.82.7%172 / 208Coin: 48.6% (101 / 208)Difference from the coin: +34.1 percentage points

All coin results use the original recorded tosses. Each comparison retains only the same hypotheses used for the corresponding model or rule; no toss is redrawn.

One Gemini question was interrupted after repeated ten-minute transport timeouts and unbounded client retries. Its five hypotheses are technical omissions in both parsing conditions. The amendment was recorded before aggregate result analysis; completed replies were preserved.

Chart rows use every usable forecast of each predictor. Combinations below use the same 240 hypotheses from 48 questions with usable forecasts from all five predictors.

For 2 hypotheses with positive reference outcomes, at least one predictor lacks a usable forecast. They are excluded from the matched comparison and recorded as technical omissions.

Combinations with different false-positive counts

For each false-positive count, retain combinations finding the most confirmed claims. When fewer false positives find the same number of confirmed claims, retain the more cautious combination. All results describe this same dataset.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra · At least 2 of 2 positive votes65.4%17 / 26Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +47.5 percentage points89.3%191 / 214Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.6 percentage points42.5%17 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -12.5 percentage points95.5%191 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +46 percentage points2402617921419123
Sonnet 5.5 + Gemini 4 Argon High · At least 1 of 2 positive votes40.8%29 / 71Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points93.5%158 / 169Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.9 percentage points72.5%29 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points79%158 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +29.5 percentage points24071294216915811
GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High · At least 2 of 2 positive votes59.4%19 / 32Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +41.5 percentage points89.9%187 / 208Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points47.5%19 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -7.5 percentage points93.5%187 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points24032191320818721
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High · At least 1 of 3 positive votes37.5%33 / 88Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19.6 percentage points95.4%145 / 152Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points82.5%33 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points72.5%145 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points2408833551521457
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High · At least 2 of 3 positive votes51.2%21 / 41Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points90.5%180 / 199Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points90%180 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40.5 percentage points24041212019918019
GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 · At least 1 of 2 positive votes28.7%35 / 122Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points95.8%113 / 118Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.5%35 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points56.5%113 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points24012235871181135
GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 · At least 2 of 2 positive votes51.2%21 / 41Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points90.5%180 / 199Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points90%180 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40.5 percentage points24041212019918019
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 · At least 3 of 3 positive votes69.6%16 / 23Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +51.7 percentage points88.9%193 / 217Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.3 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points96.5%193 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47 percentage points2402316721719324
Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 1 of 2 positive votes28.7%35 / 122Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points95.8%113 / 118Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.5%35 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points56.5%113 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points24012235871181135
Sonnet 5.5 + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 1 of 3 positive votes28.6%36 / 126Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.7 percentage points96.5%110 / 114Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.9 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points55%110 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points24012636901141104
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 2 of 4 positive votes41.1%30 / 73Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +23.2 percentage points94%157 / 167Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.4 percentage points75%30 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points78.5%157 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +29 percentage points24073304316715710
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 · At least 4 of 4 positive votes73.7%14 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +55.8 percentage points88.2%195 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.6 percentage points35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points97.5%195 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48 percentage points2401914522119526
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Opus 5.5 · At least 2 of 3 positive votes50%24 / 48Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points91.7%176 / 192Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points60%24 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points88%176 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points24048242419217616
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Opus 5.5 · At least 2 of 4 positive votes45.2%28 / 62Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.3 percentage points93.3%166 / 178Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.6 percentage points70%28 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +15 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24062283417816612
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 4 positive votes51.1%23 / 45Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.2 percentage points91.3%178 / 195Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.7 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points89%178 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39.5 percentage points24045232219517817
Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 3 positive votes28.6%36 / 126Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.7 percentage points96.5%110 / 114Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.9 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points55%110 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points24012636901141104
Sonnet 5.5 + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 1 of 4 positive votes28.7%37 / 129Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points97.3%108 / 111Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.7 percentage points92.5%37 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points54%108 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +4.5 percentage points24012937921111083
GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 2 of 4 positive votes39.7%31 / 78Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.9 percentage points94.4%153 / 162Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.8 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points76.5%153 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +27 percentage points2407831471621539
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 3 of 5 positive votes48.1%25 / 52Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +30.2 percentage points92%173 / 188Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86.5%173 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +37 percentage points24052252718817315
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 + Opus 5.5 · At least 5 of 5 positive votes75%12 / 16Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +57.1 percentage points87.5%196 / 224Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +2.9 percentage points30%12 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points98%196 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48.5 percentage points2401612422419628

Exact number of yes votes among 5 predictors

These are the same hypotheses generated by Grok in the neutral multi-step scheme. Of all 250, 42 reach the selected article-correspondence threshold. Joint voting uses 240 hypotheses, including 40 reaching the threshold. The other 10 hypotheses are excluded because at least one model lacks a usable forecast.

Each hypothesis belongs to exactly one exact-vote group. The groups contain 240 hypotheses in total, including 40 positive reference outcomes. Each row below evaluates selecting that group as a separate rule.

For each row, membership in that exact-vote group is treated as the positive prediction; every other hypothesis in the common cohort is the negative prediction. All four metrics and the coin comparison therefore use the whole common cohort, with the fraction of matches within the row shown as positive predictive value.

All 5 models answered yes to 16 hypotheses. Of these, 12 reach the article-correspondence threshold (75%) and 4 fall below it. This rule misses 28 of the 40 article-corresponding hypotheses in this table.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Exactly 0 yes votes2.8%3 / 107Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: -15.1 percentage points72.2%96 / 133Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: -12.4 percentage points7.5%3 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -47.5 percentage points48%96 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: -1.5 percentage points24010731041339637
Exactly 1 yes votes12.2%6 / 49Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: -5.6 percentage points82.2%157 / 191Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: -2.4 percentage points15%6 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -40 percentage points78.5%157 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +29 percentage points2404964319115734
Exactly 2 yes votes18.8%6 / 32Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +0.9 percentage points83.7%174 / 208Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: -1 percentage points15%6 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -40 percentage points87%174 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points2403262620817434
Exactly 3 yes votes36.8%7 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19 percentage points85.1%188 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +0.5 percentage points17.5%7 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -37.5 percentage points94%188 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +44.5 percentage points2401971222118833
Exactly 4 yes votes35.3%6 / 17Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +17.4 percentage points84.8%189 / 223Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +0.1 percentage points15%6 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -40 percentage points94.5%189 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +45 percentage points2401761122318934
Exactly 5 yes votes75%12 / 16Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +57.1 percentage points87.5%196 / 224Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +2.9 percentage points30%12 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points98%196 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48.5 percentage points2401612422419628

Combinations of simple-question forecasts

All configurations and baselines use the same 240 hypotheses from 48 source papers. Technical omissions are excluded identically.

Models in the combination

Yes forecasts: 84. True positives: 31; false positives: 53; false negatives: 9; true negatives: 147.

Among yes forecasts, 53 of 84 are false positives (63.1%). Of the article-corresponding hypotheses, 9 of 40 are missed (22.5%).

Usable forecasts: 240. Yes: 84, comprising 31 correct and 53 incorrect forecasts. No: 156, comprising 147 correct and 9 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 84 hypotheses. Of these, 31 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.36.9%31 / 84Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19 percentage points95% interval 25% to 50%95% interval for the difference: +9.4 to +29.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 156 hypotheses. Of these, 147 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.94.2%147 / 156Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points95% interval 89.5% to 98.1%95% interval for the difference: +3.1 to +16.4 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 40 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 31 of these.77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points95% interval 65.5% to 90.6%95% interval for the difference: +0 to +46.9 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 200 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 147 of these.73.5%147 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points95% interval 67.5% to 79.4%95% interval for the difference: +14.9 to +33.3 percentage points
Hypotheses in the selected view · 84
  1. How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Pro-inflammatory cytokines enriched in aged plasma, particularly IL-6 and TNF-α, act on intestinal stem cells (ISCs) to suppress mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation and thereby reduce regenerative capacity. Neutralizing these cytokines in aged systemic circulation should restore ISC metabolic and regenerative function. Mechanism: Aged circulating IL-6/TNF-α engage JAK/STAT and NF-κB in ISCs, downregulating mitochondrial biogenesis and electron-transport chain activity and shifting cells toward a less regenerative metabolic state. Prediction: Heterochronic exposure of young ISCs to aged serum will impair OCR and organoid-forming efficiency in an IL-6/TNF-dependent manner; cytokine blockade or genetic ablation of cognate receptors in ISCs will rescue metabolism and regeneration without requiring changes in other aged plasma components.

    Age-associated TNF acts as a systemic pro-ageing factor that signals through epithelial TNFR1 to suppress mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation, proliferation and regenerative capacity in intestinal stem cells. Blocking inflammation or TNF–TNFR1 signaling protects or restores ISC function, while enhancing mitochondrial fusion improves the function of aged ISCs.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  2. Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Physical activity raises ovarian NAD+ via increased NAMPT expression and reduced CD38 activity, activating SIRT1/SIRT3 which deacetylate histones and mitochondrial proteins to maintain oocyte genomic and metabolic integrity. This NAD+/sirtuin axis specifically extends the window of high-quality ovulation. Mechanism: Exercise → ↑ovarian NAD+ (NAMPT↑, CD38↓) → SIRT1/SIRT3 → epigenetic and mitochondrial protein deacetylation → delayed oocyte ageing. Prediction: Oocyte- or granulosa-specific Sirt1 deletion, or pharmacologic CD38 overexpression that depletes ovarian NAD+, will eliminate exercise-mediated improvements in spindle integrity and live births; NAD+ precursors will restore fertility gains in exercised CD38-high animals but not in Sirt1-null ovaries.

    Physical activity delays ovarian ageing in mice partly by increasing ovarian adiponectin signaling. Its protective effects were attenuated in adiponectin-deficient mice, while pharmacological activation of adiponectin receptors with AdipoRon delayed ovarian ageing and extended reproductive lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  3. Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Physical activity delays ovarian ageing by chronically activating AMPK in granulosa cells and oocytes, which increases PINK1–Parkin-dependent mitophagy and thereby preserves mitochondrial quality in the follicular pool. Sustained clearance of damaged mitochondria reduces ROS-driven oocyte aneuploidy and follicle atresia, extending reproductive lifespan. Mechanism: Exercise → ↑AMPK → PINK1/Parkin mitophagy → improved oocyte/granulosa mitochondrial fidelity → less oxidative DNA damage and delayed follicle depletion. Prediction: Ovary-specific Ampkα1/α2 knockout or granulosa-targeted Parkin deletion will abolish exercise-induced gains in oocyte mitochondrial membrane potential, mtDNA integrity, and litter size, while systemic AMPK activators in sedentary animals will partially phenocopy exercise; alternative pathways (e.g., irisin or NAD+) will remain intact yet fail to rescue fertility in these knockouts.

    Physical activity delays ovarian ageing in mice partly by increasing ovarian adiponectin signaling. Its protective effects were attenuated in adiponectin-deficient mice, while pharmacological activation of adiponectin receptors with AdipoRon delayed ovarian ageing and extended reproductive lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  4. Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Exercise-induced circulating irisin (cleaved FNDC5) binds ovarian αV/β5 integrin receptors, inducing PGC-1α–driven metabolic reprogramming of theca and stromal cells that lowers local inflammation and fibrosis. This remodeling preserves the follicular niche and slows age-related decline in oocyte competence. Mechanism: Muscle FNDC5/irisin → ovarian integrin signaling → PGC-1α/mitochondrial biogenesis and anti-fibrotic gene programs in stroma/theca → healthier follicular microenvironment. Prediction: Neutralizing anti-irisin antibodies or ovary-restricted Itgb5 knockout will block exercise benefits on ovarian collagen deposition, follicle survival, and blastocyst rates, whereas recombinant irisin in sedentary females will improve those endpoints without requiring AMPK activation in oocytes.

    Physical activity delays ovarian ageing in mice partly by increasing ovarian adiponectin signaling. Its protective effects were attenuated in adiponectin-deficient mice, while pharmacological activation of adiponectin receptors with AdipoRon delayed ovarian ageing and extended reproductive lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High.

  5. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-elevated circulating TGF-β1 is a causal driver of multi-tissue cellular senescence and organismal ageing. Chronic exposure of young tissues to aged plasma levels of TGF-β1 is sufficient to induce p16INK4a/p21-positive senescence and accelerate functional decline. Mechanism: Circulating TGF-β1 binds TGFBR1/2, activates Smad2/3–Smad4 complexes that transcriptionally induce CDKN2A/CDKN1A and remodel chromatin toward a stable senescence program, while also reinforcing SASP output that further elevates systemic TGF-β1. Prediction: Neutralizing circulating TGF-β1 (or tissue-specific TGFBR1 deletion) in aged animals will reduce senescence markers across distant organs and improve healthspan metrics more than neutralizing IL-6 or insulin signaling alone; conversely, sustained infusion of TGF-β1 into young animals will recapitulate the aged senescence signature even when inflammatory cytokines remain low.

    ANGPTL8 directly interacts with AKT2 and activates the AKT–mTOR–S6K pathway, thereby driving cell-autonomous adipocyte senescence. Deleting Angptl8 in mice reduces adipose senescence, delays age-related functional decline, and extends lifespan, while genetic or pharmacological pathway inhibition abolishes ANGPTL8-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  6. Can a microbiota-derived factor directly cause the cellular dysfunction and progressive tissue remodeling characteristic of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and if so, through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A microbiota-derived metabolite accumulates in the aging lung and directly induces irreversible senescence in alveolar type II epithelial cells, whose senescence-associated secretory phenotype then drives progressive fibrotic remodeling without requiring ongoing microbial colonization. Mechanism: The metabolite activates a DNA-damage or mitochondrial-stress sensor that stabilizes p53 and induces p21-dependent permanent cell-cycle arrest; senescent AT2 cells secrete TGF-β, IL-6, and matrix-remodeling factors that activate resident fibroblasts into collagen-depositing myofibroblasts. Prediction: Sterile administration of the purified metabolite alone will increase lung p21+/SA-β-gal+ AT2 cells and progressive collagen deposition in germ-free or antibiotic-cleared mice, whereas genetic ablation of p21 in AT2 cells will block fibrosis despite continued metabolite exposure.

    The microbiota-derived peptide corisin directly disrupts epithelial proteostasis by targeting and enhancing the ubiquitin-proteasome system, thereby inducing apoptosis, cellular senescence, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and fibrotic remodeling. Depleting native corisin from patient bronchoalveolar lavage fluid removes its proapoptotic activity, while constitutive corisin expression in mice causes spontaneous progressive pulmonary fibrosis and worsens bleomycin-induced injury and mortality.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  7. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in GATA1 dosage or activity within MEPs tips the GATA1–FLI1 cross-antagonism toward FLI1, causally diverting differentiation from erythroid to megakaryocytic programs. Mechanism: Reduced GATA1 transcription, translation, or post-translational activation with age weakens repression of FLI1 and megakaryocyte genes, allowing FLI1 to dominate the mutual antagonism that normally partitions MEP fate. Prediction: Restoring GATA1 levels or activity in aged MEPs will reinstate erythroid differentiation and suppress megakaryocyte markers, whereas heterozygous Gata1 reduction in young MEPs will phenocopy the aged erythroid-to-platelet shift.

    Pbx1 is a regulatory hub that drives age-related transcriptional and differentiation changes in hematopoietic stem cells. It suppresses erythroid differentiation by repressing Gata1 expression, thereby contributing to the lineage imbalance characteristic of HSC ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  8. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging selectively expands a pre-existing platelet-biased HSC subset at the expense of balanced and erythroid-biased HSCs, so the lineage shift is driven by clonal composition change rather than cell-intrinsic reprogramming of every progenitor. Mechanism: Platelet-biased HSCs (often Vwf-high) have a selective survival or self-renewal advantage under aged bone-marrow niche and inflammatory conditions, progressively dominating the stem-cell pool and feeding megakaryopoiesis. Prediction: Lineage tracing and limiting-dilution transplants will show enrichment of platelet-biased HSC clones with age; transplanting purified aged platelet-biased HSCs into young hosts will transfer the skew, while depleting that subset in aged mice will restore erythroid balance.

    Pbx1 is a regulatory hub that drives age-related transcriptional and differentiation changes in hematopoietic stem cells. It suppresses erythroid differentiation by repressing Gata1 expression, thereby contributing to the lineage imbalance characteristic of HSC ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  9. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging impairs load-induced suppression of osteocyte sclerostin, so Wnt/β-catenin remains inhibited and periosteal bone formation fails to increase after mechanical loading. Pharmacologic or genetic sclerostin blockade will restore the anabolic loading response in aged bone. Mechanism: Persistent SOST/sclerostin expression after strain keeps LRP5/6-Wnt signaling repressed in osteoblasts and lining cells, blocking load-coupled matrix formation. Prediction: Aged loaded bone will show high sclerostin and low β-catenin target-gene induction versus young loaded bone; anti-sclerostin treatment plus loading will recover periosteal mineral apposition to near-young levels, whereas loading alone will not.

    In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  10. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in osteocyte Piezo1 (or associated ion-channel/Ca2+ entry) blunts early mechanotransduction, so downstream anabolic gene programs are not activated by physiological strain. Agonism or overexpression of Piezo1 will restore loading responsiveness in aged bone. Mechanism: Reduced Piezo1-dependent calcium influx and YAP/TAZ or NFAT activation in osteocytes cuts the initiation of load-adaptive transcriptional responses. Prediction: Aged osteocytes will show weaker load-evoked Ca2+ transients and Piezo1-dependent gene induction; Piezo1 activation will rescue formation indices after loading, while Piezo1 loss in young bone will phenocopy the aged loading defect.

    In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  11. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Impaired lysosomal acidification secondary to metabolic imbalance causes undegraded cytosolic DNA and damaged organelles to accumulate, chronically stimulating cGAS–STING and thereby coupling homeostasis failure to senescence. Mechanism: Defective V-ATPase activity and reduced TFEB-driven lysosomal biogenesis allow mtDNA and nuclear fragments to leak into the cytosol, activating type-I IFN and SASP programs that reinforce growth arrest. Prediction: Pharmacologic re-acidification of lysosomes or STING inhibition will lower cytosolic DNA sensors and senescence markers even when mitochondrial membrane potential remains depressed.

    Loss of DHCR24 increases ENKUR expression, causing calcium overload, endoplasmic-reticulum stress, and mitochondrial dysfunction that activate the ATM-mediated DNA damage response and promote endothelial-cell senescence. ENKUR knockdown suppresses these effects, while DHCR24 overexpression lowers ENKUR and mitigates calcium overload, establishing a causal DHCR24-ENKUR-Ca2+ signaling axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 1; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  12. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    NAD+ depletion from disrupted metabolic homeostasis inhibits SIRT1/PARP1-coordinated DNA repair and chromatin maintenance, converting transient damage into persistent lesions that drive senescence. Mechanism: Falling NAD+ lowers SIRT1-mediated deacetylation of repair factors and PARP1 substrate availability, delaying DSB resolution and allowing unrepaired foci to accumulate at lamin-associated domains. Prediction: NAD+ repletion will accelerate clearance of 53BP1 foci and reduce senescence entry specifically in NAD+-starved cells, whereas boosting antioxidant capacity alone will not restore repair kinetics.

    Loss of DHCR24 increases ENKUR expression, causing calcium overload, endoplasmic-reticulum stress, and mitochondrial dysfunction that activate the ATM-mediated DNA damage response and promote endothelial-cell senescence. ENKUR knockdown suppresses these effects, while DHCR24 overexpression lowers ENKUR and mitigates calcium overload, establishing a causal DHCR24-ENKUR-Ca2+ signaling axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 1; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  13. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Disruption of ER–mitochondria contact sites impairs Ca2+ transfer and elevates mitochondrial ROS, which oxidizes dNTPs and nuclear DNA, activating a persistent DDR that locks cells into senescence. Mechanism: Loss of VDAC1–IP3R–GRP75 tethering reduces mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake, collapses OXPHOS efficiency, and generates superoxide that damages DNA and sustains ATM/p53 signaling. Prediction: Restoring MERCS density or buffering mitochondrial ROS will reduce γH2AX foci and SA-β-gal positivity without correcting unrelated ER stress markers, distinguishing this from pure proteostasis failure.

    Loss of DHCR24 increases ENKUR expression, causing calcium overload, endoplasmic-reticulum stress, and mitochondrial dysfunction that activate the ATM-mediated DNA damage response and promote endothelial-cell senescence. ENKUR knockdown suppresses these effects, while DHCR24 overexpression lowers ENKUR and mitigates calcium overload, establishing a causal DHCR24-ENKUR-Ca2+ signaling axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  14. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Circulating advanced glycation end products (AGEs) that rise with chronological age act through RAGE to induce mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, and senescence-like phenotypes in vascular and stromal cells. Reducing AGE burden or blocking RAGE will reverse these cellular phenotypes even when chronological age is unchanged. Mechanism: AGE–RAGE ligation activates NADPH oxidase and NF-κB, elevating ROS, impairing mitochondrial respiration, and locking cells into a damaged, pro-fibrotic state. Prediction: Aged serum will induce ROS, mtDNA damage, and senescence markers in young endothelial cells in a RAGE-dependent manner; RAGE antagonists or AGE-cleaving interventions will abolish transfer of the phenotype while leaving other aged-plasma factors intact.

    Age-associated accumulation of metabolic factors, including low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, glucose and uric acid, and tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen and human epididymis protein 4, induced senescence-related phenotypes in human endothelial cells. A high-fat-diet mouse model followed by dietary reversal further showed that ageing associated with metabolic burden is modifiable.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  15. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Sex-dimorphic midlife shifts in circulating sex steroids and gonadotropins (declining estradiol/testosterone with rising FSH/LH) causally accelerate tissue ageing phenotypes differently in women and men. Restoring midlife hormonal set-points will reverse sex-specific cellular ageing signatures induced by aged plasma. Mechanism: Loss of estrogen receptor and androgen receptor tone plus elevated FSH signaling alters mitochondrial biogenesis, DNA repair, and inflammatory set-points in a sex-dependent manner across bone, adipose, and vascular beds. Prediction: Aged female plasma will more strongly induce senescence and inflammatory programs in estrogen-responsive cells than age-matched male plasma; estradiol repletion or FSH neutralization will selectively reverse female-plasma effects without equivalent rescue of male-plasma effects.

    Age-associated accumulation of metabolic factors, including low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, glucose and uric acid, and tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen and human epididymis protein 4, induced senescence-related phenotypes in human endothelial cells. A high-fat-diet mouse model followed by dietary reversal further showed that ageing associated with metabolic burden is modifiable.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  16. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-accumulated circulating SASP cytokines (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF-α, and CXCL chemokines) causally drive secondary senescence and inflammatory gene programs in otherwise young cells. Neutralizing or clearing these factors in midlife will reverse induction of senescence markers and restore proliferative capacity in exposed tissues. Mechanism: Paracrine and endocrine SASP signaling engages NF-κB and JAK/STAT pathways in distant cells, spreading a senescence-like state and amplifying inflammaging. Prediction: Exposing young primary cells or young mice to aged plasma depleted of these SASP cytokines (or treated with neutralizing antibodies) will fail to induce p16/p21, SA-β-gal, and SASP gene expression relative to intact aged plasma, whereas re-adding the purified cytokine mix will restore the phenotype.

    Age-associated accumulation of metabolic factors, including low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, glucose and uric acid, and tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen and human epididymis protein 4, induced senescence-related phenotypes in human endothelial cells. A high-fat-diet mouse model followed by dietary reversal further showed that ageing associated with metabolic burden is modifiable.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  17. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-enriched circulating extracellular vesicles carrying pro-senescent microRNAs and damaged mitochondrial cargo actively transfer ageing phenotypes to young recipient cells. Blocking EV uptake or depleting aged EVs from plasma will prevent and reverse EV-driven cellular ageing. Mechanism: Aged EVs deliver miR-34a, miR-21, and oxidized mtDNA that repress SIRT1/PGC-1α and activate cGAS–STING, imposing a senescence-associated transcriptional state on recipient cells. Prediction: EV-depleted aged plasma will lose most of its capacity to induce senescence markers in young fibroblasts, whereas purified aged EVs alone will recapitulate the phenotype; inhibiting EV endocytosis will block transfer.

    Age-associated accumulation of metabolic factors, including low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, glucose and uric acid, and tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen and human epididymis protein 4, induced senescence-related phenotypes in human endothelial cells. A high-fat-diet mouse model followed by dietary reversal further showed that ageing associated with metabolic burden is modifiable.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  18. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    An age-depleted tryptophan-metabolizing microbe restores production of indole derivatives (e.g., indole-3-acetic acid or indole-3-aldehyde) that activate aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) in gut epithelium and innate lymphoid cells, thereby restraining inflammaging and improving healthspan in old animals. The purified indole metabolite is necessary and sufficient. Mechanism: Microbial indoles ligate AhR, inducing IL-22 and antimicrobial/barrier programs and limiting chronic type-1 inflammatory signaling that drives inflammaging. Prediction: Metabolite or microbe treatment raises AhR-target gene expression (Cyp1a1, Il22), lowers systemic inflammatory markers, and improves healthspan; epithelial or ILC AhR deletion, or an AhR antagonist, blocks benefit while leaving unrelated SCFA pathways intact.

    Bifidobacterium pseudocatenulatum, which declines with age in human cohorts, causally improved intestinal homeostasis, reduced multiorgan inflammaging, enhanced cognitive and motor performance and extended healthspan in naturally aged mice. Its metabolite 5-aminovaleric acid betaine (5-AVAB), also reduced during human ageing, partially reproduced these systemic benefits when administered alone.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  19. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging reduces injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina because chronic low-grade inflammation progressively impairs Müller glial competence to activate neurogenic programs after injury. Suppressing age-associated inflammatory signaling in old retina should restore reprogramming efficiency toward youthful levels. Mechanism: Persistent innate immune activation (inflammaging) elevates NF-κB/STAT-driven glial reactivity that antagonizes Ascl1 and related neurogenic gene networks required for Müller glia-to-neuron conversion after injury. Prediction: Aged retinas will show higher baseline and post-injury inflammatory cytokine signatures coincident with fewer reprogrammed neurons; neutralizing key inflammatory mediators (e.g., IL-6/TNF or microglial depletion) will increase reprogrammed neuron yield in old but not young animals, whereas adding the same cytokines to young tissue will reduce yield.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  20. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging limits retinal neuronal reprogramming by locking Müller glia into a more rigid epigenetic state that resists injury-triggered fate conversion. Restoring youthful chromatin accessibility at neurogenic loci in aged Müller glia will rescue reprogramming. Mechanism: Age-dependent accumulation of repressive chromatin marks and reduced pioneer-factor accessibility at Ascl1 targets and neuronal gene loci prevents injury cues from opening the neurogenic program in Müller glia. Prediction: Aged Müller glia will exhibit reduced chromatin accessibility and higher H3K27me3/DNA methylation at neurogenic loci after injury relative to young glia; transient epigenetic remodeling (e.g., HDAC or EZH2 inhibition timed with injury) will preferentially increase reprogrammed neurons in aged retina and reopen accessibility at those loci.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  21. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Experimentally elevating the somatic mtDNA mutation rate in a large mammal will accelerate multi-tissue functional decline and shorten median and maximum lifespan relative to isogenic controls with a wild-type mtDNA polymerase proofreading capacity. Mechanism: Proofreading-deficient mtDNA polymerase increases the load of random somatic mtDNA mutations, impairing oxidative phosphorylation, elevating ROS and bioenergetic failure in post-mitotic and stem-cell niches, and thereby driving systemic ageing phenotypes. Prediction: Mutator animals will show dose-dependent earlier onset of sarcopenia, anemia, fertility loss, and cardiac dysfunction together with reduced lifespan, with these traits correlating quantitatively with measured tissue mtDNA mutation burden and respiratory-chain deficiency.

    Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  22. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Elevated somatic mtDNA mutations cause premature ageing only when mutation load exceeds a tissue-specific heteroplasmy threshold that collapses respiratory-chain capacity; subthreshold loads will be phenotypically silent for lifespan. Mechanism: Because of intracellular and intercellular complementation and mitochondrial quality control, moderate increases in mutation frequency are buffered until a critical fraction of mtDNA molecules are compromised, after which ATP production and metabolite homeostasis fail abruptly. Prediction: Lifespan and ageing-trait severity will show a nonlinear (threshold) relationship with measured mutation frequency and COX-negative fiber/cell fraction, with little phenotype below the threshold and sharp acceleration above it across multiple organs.

    Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  23. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Increased somatic mtDNA mutations cause premature ageing primarily by depleting adult stem-cell pools and impairing tissue regenerative capacity, rather than by uniform bioenergetic failure in differentiated cells. Mechanism: Heteroplasmic mutant mtDNA reaches a threshold in stem and progenitor cells that triggers apoptosis, senescence, or differentiation block, leading to progressive failure of tissue maintenance while differentiated cells remain relatively functional until late stages. Prediction: Tissues with high turnover (blood, gut, skin, muscle satellite cells) will show earlier clonal mtDNA mutation expansion, stem-cell depletion, and regenerative failure than low-turnover tissues, and stem-cell transplantation from wild-type donors will partially rescue ageing phenotypes without correcting mutations in differentiated parenchyma.

    Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  24. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Enhancing Wnt/β-catenin signaling in aged hair follicle stem cells is sufficient to drive quiescent follicles into anagen and restore regenerative cycling. Age-related decline in intrinsic Wnt pathway activity is a primary cause of failed resting-to-growth transition. Mechanism: Increased nuclear β-catenin and Wnt target gene expression overcome elevated inhibitory niche cues, reactivating bulge stem cell proliferation and initiating the hair growth cycle. Prediction: Pharmacologic or genetic upregulation of β-catenin in aged bulge cells will increase anagen entry and hair shaft production even when surrounding dermal niche BMP levels remain high, whereas Wnt inhibition will block regeneration despite other interventions.

    Increasing TPP1, either through stem-cell Acd overexpression or topical stabilization with the peptide TELODIN, accelerates hair regeneration in mice. TPP1 coordinates telomere capping and telomerase recruitment, activating bulge hair follicle stem cells and promoting their proliferation, differentiation, and migration as follicles transition synchronously from telogen to anagen.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  25. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Reducing the activity of the quiescence-maintaining transcription factor Nfatc1 (or Foxc1) in aged follicle stem cells reactivates dormant follicles and restores hair regeneration. Persistent high Nfatc1 activity with age locks stem cells in a non-cycling state. Mechanism: Lowered Nfatc1 relieves transcriptional repression of cell-cycle and anagen-entry genes, allowing aged stem cells to exit prolonged telogen and re-enter the proliferative growth phase. Prediction: Conditional Nfatc1 knockdown or calcineurin pathway modulation in aged HFSCs will accelerate telogen-to-anagen transition and increase hair density, while ectopic Nfatc1 expression will prevent regeneration even when Wnt or growth-factor pathways are stimulated.

    Increasing TPP1, either through stem-cell Acd overexpression or topical stabilization with the peptide TELODIN, accelerates hair regeneration in mice. TPP1 coordinates telomere capping and telomerase recruitment, activating bulge hair follicle stem cells and promoting their proliferation, differentiation, and migration as follicles transition synchronously from telogen to anagen.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  26. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Excess adiposity promotes osteoarthritis by elevating circulating leptin, which acts on articular chondrocytes and synoviocytes via LEPR–JAK2–STAT3 signaling to upregulate matrix-degrading proteases (MMP13, ADAMTS5) and inflammatory mediators, accelerating cartilage breakdown. Blocking leptin signaling or reducing adipose leptin production should therefore slow joint pathology even when body mass is held constant. Mechanism: Adipose-derived leptin activates LEPR–STAT3 in joint cells, driving catabolic enzyme expression and synovitis. Prediction: In diet-induced obese animals or humans, joint LEPR–STAT3 activity and MMP13/ADAMTS5 rise with leptin; cartilage- or synovium-specific Lepr deletion, leptin neutralization, or STAT3 inhibition reduces OA scores without reducing mechanical load, whereas other adipokine or EV interventions do not rescue the phenotype to the same degree.

    Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  27. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Excess adiposity promotes osteoarthritis by releasing adipose-derived extracellular vesicles whose cargo (specific miRNAs and proteins) is taken up by chondrocytes and synovial cells, reprogramming them toward a catabolic, inflammatory state. Interrupting EV biogenesis, release, or uptake should therefore lessen joint degeneration despite persistent obesity. Mechanism: Adipose EVs deliver regulatory miRNAs/proteins that suppress anabolic gene programs and induce proteases and cytokines in joint cells. Prediction: Serum or synovial fluid EVs from obese donors transfer OA-promoting activity in vitro and in lean recipients; adipose-specific Rab27a/nSMase2 disruption or EV uptake blockade reduces OA severity while circulating leptin and classical cytokines are unchanged, separating EV transfer from soluble adipokine/cytokine models.

    Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  28. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated mitochondrial DNA damage in oocytes and granulosa cells releases oxidized mtDNA into the cytosol, which activates cGAS–STING and thereby initiates type-I interferon and NF-κB inflammatory programs that impair follicle survival and steroidogenesis. Mechanism: Cytosolic mtDNA sensing by cGAS–STING drives interferon and NF-κB transcription in follicular cells, creating a local inflammatory milieu that reduces oocyte competence and granulosa endocrine function. Prediction: Ovary-specific cGAS or STING deletion (or mtDNA packaging rescue) will reduce follicular inflammatory transcripts and preserve ovulation and estradiol output with age, whereas parallel inflammasome blockade alone will not fully rescue the same endpoints.

    Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  29. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mitochondrial ROS from ageing theca and granulosa cells oxidize cardiolipin and other lipids, priming NLRP3 inflammasome assembly; IL-1β and IL-18 then act on neighboring follicles to propagate inflammatory decline across the ovary. Mechanism: ROS-dependent NLRP3 activation produces mature IL-1β/IL-18 that diffuse through follicular fluid and interstitial spaces, recruiting immune cells and suppressing follicle maturation in bystander follicles. Prediction: Granulosa/theca-restricted NLRP3 or caspase-1 knockout will lower ovarian IL-1β, reduce macrophage influx, and slow age-related follicle loss more than antioxidant treatment that does not block inflammasome assembly.

    Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  30. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Late correction rescues molecular and cellular bone defects but fails to restore structural and mechanical integrity because accumulated extracellular matrix defects and altered bone geometry become largely irreversible after peak accrual. Mechanism: Chronic progerin exposure produces abnormal collagen cross-linking, reduced cortical thickness, and altered trabecular topology that persist after cells are genetically corrected; cellular health recovers while tissue-level architecture does not. Prediction: Adult-treated animals show normalized osteoblast gene expression, reduced senescence markers, and improved formation rates, yet cortical geometry, mineralization quality, and whole-bone strength remain significantly below wild-type and early-treated cohorts.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  31. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In vivo correction of the HGPS-causing LMNA mutation before a critical developmental window fully restores osteoblast differentiation, bone matrix deposition, and adult bone mechanical integrity because early progerin toxicity primarily impairs formation rather than locking in irreversible structural damage. Mechanism: Progerin-driven nuclear lamina dysfunction and DNA-damage signaling in osteoprogenitors disrupt Runx2/Osterix programs during peak bone accrual; removing progerin early reopens normal lineage progression and mineralization before cortical architecture is permanently compromised. Prediction: Correction in juvenile animals normalizes osteoblast transcriptomes, mineral apposition rate, cortical thickness, and fracture toughness to wild-type levels, whereas identical correction after skeletal maturity leaves residual deficits in geometry and strength despite molecular normalization.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  32. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Natural allelic variation in a rice IAA-amido synthetase (OsGH3-family) gene alters free auxin homeostasis in developing seeds, changing seed-coat structure and thereby storage longevity. Accessions carrying a high-activity longevity allele conjugate more IAA, produce a less permeable coat, and retain higher germination after aging. Mechanism: Auxin conjugation reduces free IAA during late seed maturation, remodeling testa cell-wall and cuticle deposition and slowing oxidative aging. Prediction: Near-isogenic lines that differ only at the OsGH3 longevity QTL will show correlated differences in free IAA, seed-coat permeability (tetrazolium uptake), and post-aging germination; CRISPR knockout of the high-longevity allele will shorten longevity without changing primary yield components when auxin is restored chemically.

    Natural variation at qSL6 causally determines rice seed longevity through SL6, a fatty acyl-ACP thioesterase that changes seed fatty-acid composition and increases resistance to oxidation. Desiccation-induced ABA signaling activates SL6 through VP1, while a virus-derived CT-rich element in the 5′ UTR of the ancestral SL6HHZ allele stabilizes its mRNA bidirectionally and contributes to longevity differences between indica and japonica rice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 1; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  33. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Dihydrotestosterone-bound androgen receptor transcriptionally represses PGC-1α in dermal papilla cells, collapsing mitochondrial biogenesis and antioxidant capacity. The resulting electron-transport inefficiency elevates ROS, which accelerates cellular senescence and shortens anagen. Mechanism: AR-dependent transcriptional downregulation of the PGC-1α–NRF1/TFAM biogenesis axis, with secondary loss of SOD2/GPX activity. Prediction: Forced PGC-1α expression or AR DNA-binding blockade will restore mtDNA copy number and oxygen consumption and reduce SA-β-gal/p16 under DHT, whereas NOX or inflammasome inhibitors will not fully rescue biogenesis markers.

    SFRP2 binds FSTL1 and increases its protein stability, establishing an SFRP2–FSTL1 axis that exacerbates DHT-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammation and senescence in dermal papilla cells. SFRP2 knockdown alleviated these defects and improved hair regeneration and follicle morphology, while FSTL1 knockdown counteracted the harmful effects of SFRP2 overexpression.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 0; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  34. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In ulcerative colitis, chronic metabolic stress damages mitochondria in lamina propria T cells, releasing mtDNA into the cytosol; cytosolic mtDNA activates cGAS–STING, which drives a senescence program that produces a SASP that amplifies mucosal inflammation and impairs epithelial repair. Mechanism: Mitochondrial damage → cytosolic mtDNA → cGAS–STING → immune-cell senescence → SASP-driven colitis exacerbation Prediction: Selective blockade or genetic deletion of cGAS or STING in T cells will reduce senescence markers (p16, SA-β-gal), lower SASP cytokines in the mucosa, and improve histological colitis scores even when upstream mitochondrial stress persists; exogenous cytosolic mtDNA will recapitulate senescence and worsen disease in a STING-dependent manner.

    NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  35. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A cell-free regenerative preparation alleviates UV-induced photoaging by restoring mitophagy in keratinocytes and fibroblasts, which clears dysfunctional mitochondria and thereby reduces mitochondrial danger-signal release that drives senescence and sterile inflammation. Mechanism: Enhanced PINK1/Parkin-dependent mitophagy lowers mtDNA and ROS leakage, interrupting NLRP3 inflammasome activation and SASP maintenance. Prediction: Pharmacologic or genetic blockade of mitophagy will abolish the therapy’s anti-senescence and anti-inflammatory benefits even when barrier and collagen markers partially recover; mitophagy flux reporters and circulating mtDNA will normalize only in treated, mitophagy-competent skin.

    Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell secretome protects against UV-induced photoaging by enhancing mitophagy, which clears damaged mitochondria and reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage. This suppresses cGAS-STING signaling and downstream inflammatory cytokines; mitophagy inhibition abolishes protection, while STING inhibition restores it.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  36. Can an unannotated protein product that is altered in Alzheimer's disease causally regulate cellular function relevant to disease pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    An unannotated microprotein upregulated in Alzheimer-affected neurons impairs synaptic vesicle recycling by binding and inhibiting a SNARE-complex accessory factor, thereby reducing neurotransmitter release independently of the annotated protein from the same locus. Mechanism: Disease-driven translation of a cryptic ORF yields a short peptide that sterically occludes a SNARE regulatory site, decoupling vesicle fusion efficiency from the locus’s canonical gene product. Prediction: Selective knockdown or CRISPR deletion of only the cryptic ORF (leaving the annotated ORF intact) will restore vesicle recycling rates and evoked release in patient iPSC neurons, whereas modulating the annotated protein alone will not.

    A small open reading frame at the MKKS locus encodes a 63-amino-acid microprotein that is the locus's predominant translation product and is downregulated in Alzheimer's disease. Experimental loss of this microprotein impairs mitochondrial respiration in microglia, supporting a causal role in microglial bioenergetics.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  37. What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mutant SOD1 in astrocytes causes them to release soluble toxic factors that trigger motor-neuron death; this non-cell-autonomous toxicity is a primary driver of neurodegeneration and early mortality in SOD1G93A mice. Selectively removing mutant SOD1 from astrocytes or neutralizing the secreted toxin should preserve motor neurons and extend survival. Mechanism: Astrocyte-derived soluble neurotoxins kill neighboring motor neurons Prediction: Astrocyte-restricted SOD1G93A excision or conditioned-medium neutralization markedly reduces motor-neuron death and mortality, whereas neuron-only interventions of similar magnitude do not

    Microglial Axl and Mer receptors recognize elevated phosphatidylserine on SOD1G93A motor neurons and drive their phagocytic elimination while the neurons are still alive. Germline or microglia-restricted inactivation of Axl and Mertk preserves cholinergic motor neurons and neuromuscular synapses and extends lifespan in SOD1G93A mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  38. What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    CD8+ T cells infiltrate the SOD1G93A spinal cord and directly kill MHC-I–expressing motor neurons via perforin/granzyme pathways, accelerating neuromuscular failure and death. Depleting CD8+ T cells or blocking MHC-I recognition should spare motor neurons and improve survival. Mechanism: Cytotoxic CD8+ T cell–mediated killing of MHC-I+ motor neurons Prediction: CD8 depletion or β2-microglobulin/MHC-I loss reduces motor-neuron death and extends survival, while CD4 depletion does not produce a comparable rescue

    Microglial Axl and Mer receptors recognize elevated phosphatidylserine on SOD1G93A motor neurons and drive their phagocytic elimination while the neurons are still alive. Germline or microglia-restricted inactivation of Axl and Mertk preserves cholinergic motor neurons and neuromuscular synapses and extends lifespan in SOD1G93A mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 1; claude-opus-5-5: 0; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  39. What developmentally established epigenetic mechanism preserves metabolic readiness for rapid immune activation, and how is it disrupted during ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    During T cell development, thymic selection deposits H3K4me3 and H3K27ac at promoters and enhancers of glycolytic and mitochondrial biogenesis genes, creating a poised chromatin state that enables rapid metabolic reprogramming upon TCR stimulation. Ageing erodes this priming through progressive loss of these activating marks, delaying metabolic activation and impairing effector function. Mechanism: Developmentally deposited activating histone marks keep metabolic gene loci in a latent open state in resting naïve T cells; age-dependent histone demethylase/deacetylase activity or failed mark maintenance removes the poised configuration. Prediction: Young naïve T cells will show high H3K4me3/H3K27ac occupancy at metabolic loci before stimulation and rapid glycolytic flux after activation; aged cells will lack these marks at the same loci, show delayed induction of glycolytic enzymes, and restoring the marks (e.g., via HDAC inhibition or H3K4 methyltransferase gain-of-function) will rescue activation speed specifically in aged cells without altering unrelated gene programs.

    Tonic IL-7 signaling establishes a GABPα-dependent program that deposits H2A.Z at oxidative-phosphorylation gene promoters in quiescent naïve CD8+ T cells, priming their rapid metabolic and functional activation. Age-related loss of IL-7 signaling reduces H2A.Z occupancy and impairs activation, while IL-7 supplementation or enforced H2A.Z expression rescues the defect.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  40. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    The midlife rise in circulating follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), secondary to ovarian follicular depletion, acts on FSH receptors in adipose and vascular tissues to induce mitochondrial ROS production and cellular senescence; the resulting circulating SASP factors and oxidized lipids then cross or signal across the blood–brain barrier to drive hippocampal senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability. Mechanism: Elevated FSH → peripheral FSHR activation → mitochondrial ROS and senescence → circulating SASP/oxidized lipids → brain senescence and cognitive decline. Prediction: Neutralizing circulating FSH or blocking peripheral FSHR in midlife females should reduce circulating SASP markers, restore brain mitochondrial respiration, and preserve cognition even if estradiol remains low; the same interventions should have little effect in age-matched males or in females before the FSH surge.

    Epigenetic upregulation of splenic RBMX in middle-aged female mice increases peripheral miR-10a-5p, which contributes to cerebral miR-10a-5p abundance and represses γCaMKII. Manipulating this RBMX–miR-10a-5p–γCaMKII axis alters mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and memory, while miR-10a-5p inhibition alleviates Alzheimer’s-associated phenotypes in patient-derived neurons and model mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  41. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging impairs lysosomal acidification and autophagosome–lysosome fusion in the heart, creating a late-stage block in mitochondrial quality-control flux even when upstream tagging remains intact. Correcting lysosomal function restores complete mitophagic turnover and reverses cardiac aging phenotypes. Mechanism: Age-related loss of v-ATPase activity and SNARE-mediated fusion leaves mitochondria trapped in undegraded autophagosomes, so net QC flux collapses despite preserved early mitophagy signaling. Prediction: Aged hearts will show elevated LC3-II and p62 with uncleared mitochondrial cargo and failed quenching of mt-Keima red signal; lysosomal re-acidification (e.g., TFEB activation) will clear the backlog and improve function without needing to increase Parkin levels.

    Age-associated upregulation of HIF-3α drives excessive BNIP3 expression in senescent cardiomyocytes, causing mitophagy flux congestion and cardiac aging. Mitochondrial transplantation restores intracellular ATP homeostasis, restrains pathological HIF-3α–BNIP3 signaling, normalizes mitophagy flux, and rejuvenates the aging heart.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  42. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-dependent decline of PINK1/Parkin signaling in cardiomyocytes reduces selective tagging and clearance of depolarized mitochondria, allowing damaged organelles to accumulate and impair contractile and bioenergetic function. Restoring Parkin-dependent mitophagy flux re-establishes mitochondrial quality and reverses age-related cardiac decline. Mechanism: Reduced PINK1 stabilization and Parkin E3-ligase recruitment on damaged mitochondria lowers ubiquitination of OMM proteins, so damaged mitochondria escape autophagosome engulfment and accumulate ROS-producing organelles that drive cardiomyocyte dysfunction. Prediction: Cardiomyocyte-specific Parkin or PINK1 reactivation in aged hearts will increase mitophagic flux (mt-Keima/mt-pHluorin), lower mtDNA mutation load and ROS, and improve diastolic function more than interventions that only boost biogenesis without enhancing selective clearance.

    Age-associated upregulation of HIF-3α drives excessive BNIP3 expression in senescent cardiomyocytes, causing mitophagy flux congestion and cardiac aging. Mitochondrial transplantation restores intracellular ATP homeostasis, restrains pathological HIF-3α–BNIP3 signaling, normalizes mitophagy flux, and rejuvenates the aging heart.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  43. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Transplantation of gut microbiota from older human donors into germ-free or antibiotic-treated young recipient animals causally impairs intestinal epithelial barrier integrity relative to microbiota from young donors. This effect is driven by enrichment of age-associated taxa that reduce mucus thickness and tight-junction protein expression. Mechanism: Age-enriched mucin-degrading and pro-inflammatory taxa deplete mucus and downregulate occludin, claudin-1, and ZO-1, increasing paracellular permeability. Prediction: Older-donor microbiota recipients show higher FITC-dextran flux and lower tight-junction protein levels than young-donor recipients; co-colonization or selective depletion of candidate mucin degraders abolishes the barrier defect while matched metabolite profiles without those taxa do not.

    Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  44. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Older human gut microbial communities causally induce a mucosal gene-expression program enriched for inflammatory and innate immune pathways (NF-κB, TLR, interferon) and depleted for epithelial differentiation and nutrient-transport genes. Mechanism: Age-associated microbial PAMPs and metabolites chronically activate TLR/MyD88 and inflammasome pathways in the epithelium and lamina propria, remodeling the mucosal transcriptome. Prediction: RNA-seq of ileum/colon from older-donor recipients recapitulates age-linked human mucosal signatures; MyD88 or TLR4 deficiency in recipients blocks the inflammatory transcriptional shift while barrier and metabolic phenotypes remain partially intact.

    Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  45. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated human gut microbiota causally reprogram host systemic metabolism by elevating circulating secondary bile acids and reducing short-chain fatty acids, producing insulin resistance and altered lipid profiles independent of caloric intake. Mechanism: Shifted microbial bile-salt hydrolase and 7α-dehydroxylation activity plus diminished butyrate/propionate producers change FXR/TGR5 and GPR41/43 signaling in liver and adipose tissue. Prediction: Older-donor recipients exhibit higher serum deoxycholate, lower butyrate, worsened glucose tolerance, and hepatic steatosis; restoring young-like SCFA or bile-acid pools (or FXR antagonism) rescues metabolic phenotypes without restoring the full young microbiota.

    Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  46. Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Geroprotective effects require ongoing colonization by a live, metabolically active strain whose continuous production of multiple bioactive products jointly shifts host molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations; dead cells or single purified products are insufficient. Mechanism: Sustained in situ synthesis of a suite of metabolites and immunomodulators, plus niche occupancy, is necessary to maintain youthful multi-omic host states and suppress age-associated dysbiosis over time. Prediction: Only repeated or persistent colonization with viable wild-type organisms will extend lifespan, reverse age-associated multi-omic signatures, and stabilize a younger microbiome; single metabolites, heat-killed cells, or transient exposure will produce incomplete or transient molecular shifts without durable lifespan extension.

    Neisseria flavescens was identified as a candidate geroprotective commensal and experimentally shown to extend lifespan and healthspan in Caenorhabditis elegans when administered live. In aged mice, heat-killed N. flavescens shifted the serum metabolome, liver transcriptome and gut microbiome toward younger states, while isolated strains were confirmed to produce predicted beneficial metabolites.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  47. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related loss of sympathetic innervation density and norepinephrine release in subcutaneous white adipose tissue causally impairs β3-adrenergic recruitment of thermogenic (beige) adipocytes. Restoring local catecholaminergic tone would therefore rescue cold- or agonist-induced browning in aged animals. Mechanism: Progressive sympathetic axon rarefaction and reduced vesicular norepinephrine availability lower β3-AR–cAMP–PKA signaling in adipocyte progenitors and mature adipocytes, preventing UCP1 induction and beige differentiation. Prediction: Aged scWAT will show reduced tyrosine hydroxylase+ fiber density and lower tissue norepinephrine; local β3-agonist delivery or chemogenetic reactivation of adipose-projecting sympathetic neurons will restore UCP1+ beige adipocytes and cold-induced energy expenditure without requiring systemic endocrine rescue.

    Microglial ALKBH5 suppresses Ntf5 expression by demethylating Ntf5 mRNA, thereby limiting activation of PVH TrkB-positive neurons, sympathetic innervation of subcutaneous white adipose tissue, and adipocyte browning. Microglia-specific ALKBH5 knockout preserved brown adipocytes and improved metabolic activity during ageing in male mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  48. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Selective pharmacological activation of AMPK is sufficient to extend lifespan in evolutionarily distant invertebrates and to induce longevity-associated physiological and molecular signatures in mammals. The longevity benefit is caused by AMPK itself rather than off-target pharmacology of multi-target drugs. Mechanism: Direct AMPK activation increases catabolic programs (fatty-acid oxidation, autophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis) and dampens anabolic growth signaling, shifting cells into a conserved energy-sparing, stress-resistant state that slows aging. Prediction: A highly selective AMPK agonist will extend lifespan in C. elegans and Drosophila and, in mice, raise AMPK activity, improve metabolic healthspan markers, and induce transcriptomic/proteomic aging-delay signatures, whereas chemically related inactive analogs will not.

    Direct pharmacological activation of AMPK with compound 991 extends lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Schizosaccharomyces pombe. In mice, 991 induces a proteomic profile associated with pro-longevity biology, supporting the translational potential of AMPK activation.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  49. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Direct activation of the conserved metabolic target produces true longevity benefits in mammals only when it induces tissue-specific metabolic remodeling (improved insulin sensitivity, reduced ectopic lipid, enhanced autophagy) that parallels genetic longevity models; invertebrate lifespan extension alone is insufficient evidence of a conserved anti-aging mechanism. Mechanism: Systemic AMPK activation rewires nutrient handling in liver, adipose, and skeletal muscle, lowering chronic nutrient-sensing stress and aligning mammalian physiology with states seen in calorie restriction and long-lived mutants. Prediction: Treated mammals will show measurable longevity-associated changes—improved glucose homeostasis, CR-like hepatic and muscle transcriptomes, and delayed aging biomarkers—correlated with on-target engagement; compounds that extend worm/fly lifespan without these mammalian changes will be classified as non-conserved or off-pathway.

    Direct pharmacological activation of AMPK with compound 991 extends lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Schizosaccharomyces pombe. In mice, 991 induces a proteomic profile associated with pro-longevity biology, supporting the translational potential of AMPK activation.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  50. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Expanded mitochondria–ER contact sites (MERCS) in scleroderma fibroblasts dysregulate IP3R–VDAC–MCU calcium transfer, producing mitochondrial Ca2+ overload, ROS, and senescence while amplifying TGF-β–SMAD signaling at ER-associated scaffolds. Disrupting excessive MERCS pharmacologically should decouple senescence from fibrosis. Mechanism: Hyperconnected MERCS → Ca2+ overload and ROS → DNA damage senescence; local Ca2+/kinase scaffolds enhance SMAD nuclear activity and collagen transcription Prediction: Knockdown or pharmacologic disruption of tethering proteins (e.g., FUNDC1/IP3R–VDAC linkers) will normalize mitochondrial Ca2+, lower p21 and COL1A1, and shrink lesion thickness; merely scavenging ROS without altering contacts will reduce senescence markers less effectively than MERCS disruption.

    Parthenolide suppresses Ero1L, thereby normalizing Ero1L-mediated mitochondria-associated endoplasmic reticulum membrane function, regulating the IP3R1/Grp75/VDAC1 complex, and reducing mitochondrial damage, cellular senescence, and fibrosis. Ero1L overexpression reverses these protective effects, whereas Ero1L knockdown reproduces the anti-senescent and antifibrotic phenotype; ARG-449 is critical for parthenolide binding to Ero1L.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  51. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In localized scleroderma, mitochondrial dysfunction in dermal fibroblasts elevates ROS and releases mtDNA into the cytosol, activating cGAS–STING and thereby locking cells into a senescent, SASP-secreting state that drives collagen deposition. Pharmacologic inhibition of STING or clearance of dysfunctional mitochondria should reduce both senescence markers and dermal fibrosis. Mechanism: Damaged mitochondria → cytosolic mtDNA → cGAS–STING → NF-κB/IRF3-dependent SASP → paracrine fibroblast activation and ECM overproduction Prediction: STING knockout or STING inhibitor treatment in patient-derived fibroblasts and in a localized scleroderma mouse model will lower SA-β-gal, p16/p21, SASP cytokines, and dermal collagen thickness more than TGF-β receptor blockade alone, whereas restoring STING after mitochondrial damage will re-induce the fibrotic phenotype.

    Parthenolide suppresses Ero1L, thereby normalizing Ero1L-mediated mitochondria-associated endoplasmic reticulum membrane function, regulating the IP3R1/Grp75/VDAC1 complex, and reducing mitochondrial damage, cellular senescence, and fibrosis. Ero1L overexpression reverses these protective effects, whereas Ero1L knockdown reproduces the anti-senescent and antifibrotic phenotype; ARG-449 is critical for parthenolide binding to Ero1L.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  52. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis by chronically elevating subchondral bone interstitial fluid pressure, which dysregulates osteocyte–chondrocyte signaling and drives cartilage matrix catabolism in joints already weakened by aging or injury. Mechanism: Sustained high arterial pressure transmits through the subchondral vascular bed, raising intraosseous fluid pressure; osteocytes then release catabolic mediators (e.g., RANKL, sclerostin, PGE2) that increase chondrocyte MMP and ADAMTS activity and impair matrix synthesis. Prediction: In aged or injury-primed joints, experimentally lowering subchondral intraosseous pressure (without changing systemic inflammatory markers or RAAS activity) will reduce cartilage proteoglycan loss and MMP expression relative to hypertensive controls with matched systemic blood pressure elsewhere.

    Hypertension-associated circulating arginine vasopressin activates up-regulated AVPR1A in osteoarthritis-primed chondrocytes, driving NR4A3-dependent catabolic signaling and suppressing anabolic regulation. Genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of AVPR1A prevents the hypertension-induced acceleration of osteoarthritis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  53. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis by stiffening and remodeling subchondral bone via altered vascular tone and mechanotransduction, creating an overly rigid support that concentrates shear stress on overlying cartilage after aging or injury. Mechanism: Chronic high pressure and pulsatile load remodel subchondral trabeculae (increased bone volume fraction and plate-like architecture), raising cartilage contact stresses and accelerating fibrillation and proteoglycan loss in mechanically vulnerable joints. Prediction: Hypertensive, predisposed joints will exhibit earlier increases in subchondral bone mineral density and stiffness that temporally precede cartilage thinning; interventions that normalize subchondral compliance without lowering systemic pressure will reduce cartilage damage more than vasodilators that lower pressure but leave bone stiff.

    Hypertension-associated circulating arginine vasopressin activates up-regulated AVPR1A in osteoarthritis-primed chondrocytes, driving NR4A3-dependent catabolic signaling and suppressing anabolic regulation. Genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of AVPR1A prevents the hypertension-induced acceleration of osteoarthritis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  54. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis through local activation of the renin–angiotensin system in synovium and cartilage, where angiotensin II signaling directly promotes chondrocyte senescence and extracellular-matrix degradation. Mechanism: Elevated systemic angiotensin II and upregulated joint ACE/AT1R increase NF-κB and TGF-β/Smad signaling in chondrocytes and synoviocytes, upregulating collagenases and aggrecanases while suppressing type II collagen and aggrecan synthesis. Prediction: Joint-targeted AT1R blockade or ACE inhibition will slow cartilage degeneration in hypertensive, injury- or age-predisposed animals even when systemic blood pressure remains high via a non-RAAS pressor, outperforming pressure-matched controls without RAAS blockade.

    Hypertension-associated circulating arginine vasopressin activates up-regulated AVPR1A in osteoarthritis-primed chondrocytes, driving NR4A3-dependent catabolic signaling and suppressing anabolic regulation. Genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of AVPR1A prevents the hypertension-induced acceleration of osteoarthritis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  55. How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic nutrient competition depletes NAD+ in adoptively transferred antitumor cells, impairing SIRT1 activity and allowing hyperacetylated p53 to drive a senescence transcriptional program that abolishes long-term persistence. Mechanism: NAD+-consuming stress pathways and limited salvage precursors lower NAD+/NADH; reduced SIRT1 fails to deacetylate p53, potentiating p53-dependent senescence gene expression and durable functional decline. Prediction: NAD+ precursors (e.g., NMN/NR) or SIRT1 activation in transferred cells should lower acetyl-p53, senescence markers, and improve persistence in nutrient-scarce tumors, with little benefit if p53 is deleted.

    Glucose deprivation activates AMPK in transferred Th9 cells, initiating a ZAK–NIK cascade that suppresses noncanonical NF-κB signaling and IL-9 production, thereby driving cellular senescence. Restoring glucose or targeting ZAK reduces senescence, improves Th9-cell persistence, and enhances CAR-Th9 efficacy against solid tumors.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  56. How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Glucose scarcity in the tumor microenvironment activates AMPK in adoptively transferred T cells, which stabilizes p53 and induces a p21-dependent senescence program that curtails proliferation and persistence. Mechanism: Low ATP/AMP ratios from glucose competition trigger AMPK; AMPK phosphorylates p53 (Ser15), upregulating CDKN1A/p21 and enforcing durable cell-cycle arrest characteristic of senescence. Prediction: Pharmacologic or genetic AMPK blockade in transferred T cells should reduce p21 and senescence markers (SA-β-gal, γH2AX) and restore persistence specifically under glucose-limited but not nutrient-replete conditions, more than interventions targeting amino-acid sensors alone.

    Glucose deprivation activates AMPK in transferred Th9 cells, initiating a ZAK–NIK cascade that suppresses noncanonical NF-κB signaling and IL-9 production, thereby driving cellular senescence. Restoring glucose or targeting ZAK reduces senescence, improves Th9-cell persistence, and enhances CAR-Th9 efficacy against solid tumors.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High.

  57. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-dependent depletion or impaired loading of cohesin and CTCF erodes topologically associating domain (TAD) boundaries at inflammatory and immune-activation loci, permitting ectopic enhancer–promoter contacts that drive chronic inflammatory transcription. Mechanism: Reduced cohesin–CTCF loop extrusion fidelity with chronological age weakens insulating boundaries, allowing distal enhancers to ectopically contact promoters of NF-κB/STAT target genes and lock in an inflammatory expression program. Prediction: Restoring cohesin loading (e.g., NIPBL/MAU2 overexpression or CTCF repletion) in aged cells should re-establish TAD insulation at inflammatory hubs and selectively downregulate age-associated activation genes without broadly reversing unrelated ageing chromatin marks such as LAD detachment.

    Age-associated reduction of SATB1 in naive CD4+ T cells weakens TAD boundaries and expands the range of CTCF-mediated interactions without changing CTCF occupancy, producing enhancer-promoter rewiring and increased expression of proinflammatory and proactivation genes. Conditional SATB1 deletion recapitulates these ageing-associated architectural and transcriptional changes, establishing SATB1 deficiency as a causal contributor.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High.

  58. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-elevated NF-κB and related inflammatory transcription factors recruit cohesin and Mediator to their binding sites, thereby constructing self-reinforcing 3D enhancer hubs that propagate chronic inflammatory and activation gene expression. Mechanism: Increased nuclear NF-κB occupancy with age scaffolds architectural protein complexes at cytokine and activation loci, building multi-enhancer hubs whose topology both depends on and amplifies inflammatory transcription. Prediction: Acute NF-κB blockade in aged tissue should rapidly dismantle the inflammatory hubs and their specific long-range contacts before bulk TAD structure or lamina integrity recovers, whereas cohesin restoration without NF-κB inhibition would leave hub-centric contacts intact.

    Age-associated reduction of SATB1 in naive CD4+ T cells weakens TAD boundaries and expands the range of CTCF-mediated interactions without changing CTCF occupancy, producing enhancer-promoter rewiring and increased expression of proinflammatory and proactivation genes. Conditional SATB1 deletion recapitulates these ageing-associated architectural and transcriptional changes, establishing SATB1 deficiency as a causal contributor.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  59. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A conserved age-dependent rise in long-chain ceramides, driven by elevated serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT) activity, actively shortens lifespan by impairing insulin/IGF signaling and mitochondrial respiratory capacity. Genetic or pharmacological reduction of SPT or ceramide synthases therefore extends lifespan across taxa. Mechanism: SPT-dependent de novo sphingolipid synthesis increases membrane and circulating ceramides that dampen IIS/AKT and promote mitochondrial outer-membrane permeabilization and ROS, accelerating physiological decline. Prediction: Tissue-specific SPT knockdown or myriocin treatment that lowers ceramides will extend lifespan and restore youthful IIS/mitochondrial markers even when other age-linked lipid classes remain altered; restoring ceramides will abolish the benefit.

    Ageing produces a conserved shift toward longer lipid acyl chains, with depletion of shorter lipid species. Plb1 promotes this remodeling, and its knockdown in C. elegans reverses lipid elongation and extends lifespan in a lipid-length-dependent manner, supporting a causal role for lipid chain length in limiting longevity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  60. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Declining lysosomal acid lipase (LIPA/lipl-4) activity with age causes undegraded neutral lipids and lipofuscin to accumulate, which actively constrains lifespan by impairing autophagy–lysosome flux and inducing chronic lipotoxicity. Restoring lysosomal lipolysis extends lifespan. Mechanism: Insufficient lysosomal hydrolysis of cholesteryl esters and triglycerides generates indigestible lipid aggregates that clog lysosomes, reduce autophagic clearance of damaged organelles, and release toxic free fatty acids into the cytosol. Prediction: Tissue-specific LIPA/lipl-4 overexpression or lysosome-targeted lipase activation will clear lipofuscin, restore autophagic flux, and extend lifespan without requiring correction of plasma membrane sphingolipid or plasmalogen composition; lipase inhibition will shorten life and abolish benefits of fasting or autophagy inducers that depend on lysosomal lipolysis.

    Ageing produces a conserved shift toward longer lipid acyl chains, with depletion of shorter lipid species. Plb1 promotes this remodeling, and its knockdown in C. elegans reverses lipid elongation and extends lifespan in a lipid-length-dependent manner, supporting a causal role for lipid chain length in limiting longevity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  61. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progressive age-dependent repression of stearoyl-CoA desaturase (SCD/fat-5/6/7) reduces monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) production, stiffening membranes and limiting stress-resilient lipid remodeling, thereby actively constraining lifespan. Sustained SCD activity or MUFA supplementation extends life. Mechanism: Lower SCD activity depletes oleate and related MUFAs needed for fluid, signaling-competent membranes and for lipid-droplet buffering of lipotoxicity, increasing ER stress and reducing proteostatic capacity with age. Prediction: SCD overexpression or oleate feeding that elevates MUFAs will extend lifespan and improve membrane fluidity metrics even when sphingolipid and ether-lipid profiles stay aged; SCD inhibition will shorten life and block MUFA-dependent longevity pathways.

    Ageing produces a conserved shift toward longer lipid acyl chains, with depletion of shorter lipid species. Plb1 promotes this remodeling, and its knockdown in C. elegans reverses lipid elongation and extends lifespan in a lipid-length-dependent manner, supporting a causal role for lipid chain length in limiting longevity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  62. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Decline of specific Clostridium-associated metabolites such as desaminotyrosine (DAT) with ageing removes a key amplifier of type I interferon signaling in the lung, causally weakening intrinsic antiviral resistance. DAT restoration will counteract age-related influenza susceptibility independent of broad microbiota transfer. Mechanism: DAT amplifies IFNAR signaling and ISG expression in airway epithelium and innate immune cells; age-related loss of DAT-producing taxa removes this tonic boost. Prediction: DAT supplementation in aged mice will elevate early lung ISG expression and reduce viral titers even when overall SCFA, bile-acid, and tryptophan-metabolite profiles remain aged-like.

    Age-associated gut microbiota dysbiosis reduces microbial acetate-production capacity during influenza infection, while acetate supplementation suppresses viral replication and inflammation in senescent human lung fibroblasts. This protection is associated with FFAR2/FFAR3 signaling and increased histone H3 acetylation, supporting acetate as a mechanistic mediator of the ageing gut–lung axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Opus 5.5.

  63. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in gut microbial short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production, especially butyrate, causally impairs pulmonary type I interferon responses during influenza infection. Restoring SCFAs in aged hosts will rescue antiviral defense by reactivating interferon-stimulated gene programs in lung epithelial and innate immune cells. Mechanism: Reduced microbial fermentation lowers circulating butyrate, relieving HDAC inhibition and thereby dampening epigenetic priming of antiviral IFN/ISG loci at distant mucosal sites. Prediction: Oral butyrate or HDAC-inhibitor treatment of aged mice will restore early lung IFN/ISG induction and improve viral clearance without requiring restoration of other microbial metabolites such as AHR ligands or secondary bile acids.

    Age-associated gut microbiota dysbiosis reduces microbial acetate-production capacity during influenza infection, while acetate supplementation suppresses viral replication and inflammation in senescent human lung fibroblasts. This protection is associated with FFAR2/FFAR3 signaling and increased histone H3 acetylation, supporting acetate as a mechanistic mediator of the ageing gut–lung axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High.

  64. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin expression specifically in vascular smooth muscle cells is sufficient to cause medial VSMC depletion and collagen-rich extracellular-matrix accumulation, independently of endothelial or adventitial progerin. Mechanism: Cell-autonomous nuclear lamina disruption in VSMCs triggers DNA damage responses, senescence and apoptosis, while dysregulating matrix gene programs that favor collagen deposition and medial remodeling. Prediction: Mice or vessel organoids with VSMC-restricted LMNA G609G (or equivalent) will reproduce medial VSMC loss and collagen accumulation, whereas endothelium- or adventitia-restricted progerin will not.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  65. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin in endothelial cells is the primary driver of vascular wall inflammation in HGPS, through upregulation of leukocyte-adhesion molecules and inflammatory cytokines that recruit immune cells into the vessel wall. Mechanism: Endothelial nuclear envelope dysfunction activates NF-κB and related stress pathways, increasing ICAM-1/VCAM-1 and cytokine release that promote leukocyte extravasation and chronic inflammation. Prediction: Endothelium-restricted progerin will produce inflammatory infiltrates and adhesion-molecule upregulation even when medial and adventitial cells are wild-type, while VSMC-restricted progerin will produce little inflammation without endothelial involvement.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  66. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin-bearing endothelial cells secondarily induce medial VSMC dysfunction and ECM abnormalities via paracrine loss of nitric oxide and gain of inflammatory mediators, so some medial pathology is non-cell-autonomous. Mechanism: Endothelial progerin impairs eNOS activity and elevates IL-6/TNF-α and other factors that promote neighboring VSMC senescence, apoptosis and matrix dysregulation across the intima–media interface. Prediction: Co-culture or chimeric vessels with progerin endothelium and wild-type VSMCs will show VSMC stress markers and collagen changes that are rescued by NO donors or cytokine blockade, whereas VSMC-only progerin will not fully account for the same inflammatory ECM signature.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  67. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Time-restricted feeding protects against accelerated cardiovascular ageing by restoring intestinal epithelial barrier integrity, thereby limiting chronic low-grade endotoxemia that drives endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffening. The barrier restoration is necessary and sufficient for the vascular benefit under otherwise matched caloric intake. Mechanism: Extended daily fasting upregulates tight-junction proteins (e.g., occludin, claudin-1) and mucus production via circadian and AMPK-dependent pathways in enterocytes; reduced translocation of LPS and other microbial products lowers TLR4/NF-κB signaling in endothelium and vascular smooth muscle, slowing hypertension, stiffening, and maladaptive remodeling. Prediction: In aged or progeroid models, TRF that improves gut barrier markers and lowers plasma LPS will prevent arterial stiffening and endothelial dysfunction, whereas TRF combined with experimental barrier disruption (or chronic low-dose LPS infusion matched to ad libitum levels) will abolish protection despite preserved feeding-window compliance and body weight.

    Time-restricted feeding enriches acetate-producing Limosilactobacillus, and microbiota-derived acetate is necessary and sufficient for its protection against angiotensin II-induced cardiovascular ageing. Acetate activates GPR43, inhibits HDAC3, increases H4K8 acetylation, and suppresses NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis and cellular senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  68. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Time-restricted feeding protects vessels by suppressing NLRP3 inflammasome–dependent pyroptosis in endothelial and vascular smooth muscle cells. Reduction of this regulated inflammatory cell death is the causal mediator linking the feeding schedule to slower cardiovascular ageing. Mechanism: Daily fasting lowers mitochondrial ROS, oxidized lipids, and potassium efflux signals that prime and activate NLRP3; less caspase-1/GSDMD activity reduces IL-1β/IL-18 release and pyroptotic loss of barrier-competent endothelium, preserving nitric oxide signaling and limiting adventitial inflammation and stiffening. Prediction: TRF will reduce vascular GSDMD cleavage, IL-1β, and pyroptotic cell loss concurrent with improved pulse-wave velocity; genetic or pharmacologic NLRP3/GSDMD blockade will phenocopy TRF benefits in ad libitum animals, while constitutive NLRP3 activation confined to endothelium will eliminate TRF’s vascular protection.

    Time-restricted feeding enriches acetate-producing Limosilactobacillus, and microbiota-derived acetate is necessary and sufficient for its protection against angiotensin II-induced cardiovascular ageing. Acetate activates GPR43, inhibits HDAC3, increases H4K8 acetylation, and suppresses NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis and cellular senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  69. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Resistance is caused by SF3B1-dependent production of an MDM4 splicing isoform that hyper-suppresses p53, thereby blocking the p53–p21 senescence arm downstream of CDK4/6 inhibition. Pharmacologic or genetic disruption of this SF3B1–MDM4 splicing axis restores p53 activity and therapy-induced senescence. Mechanism: Mutant or overactive SF3B1 alters 3' splice-site choice in MDM4, enriching an isoform that binds and inhibits p53 more potently; without p53/p21 reinforcement, CDK4/6i-arrested cells escape into reversible quiescence instead of senescence. Prediction: SF3B1 inhibitors or MDM4 splice-correcting ASOs will increase p53 transcriptional output and senescence only in resistant cells that accumulate the oncogenic MDM4 isoform, and this rescue will be abolished by TP53 knockout but not by RB1 knockout.

    Increased inclusion of exon 2 drives SUV39H2 overexpression and CDK4/6 inhibitor resistance. Suppressing SUV39H2 expression or methyltransferase activity removes H3K9me3 from enhancer regions, opens associated promoters, activates p21 and other senescence-associated genes, and restores therapy-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  70. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic low-dose Tor inhibition preserves lysosomal acidification and autophagic flux during aging, which sustains protein homeostasis and extends lifespan. The benefit depends on maintained lysosomal protease activity rather than reduced protein synthesis alone. Mechanism: Reduced mTORC1 signaling derepresses TFEB/HLH-30 nuclear translocation, upregulating lysosomal biogenesis and v-ATPase subunits, thereby keeping lumenal pH low and clearance competent with age. Prediction: Genetic or pharmacological blockade of TFEB/HLH-30 or v-ATPase will abolish lifespan extension and lysosomal pH preservation under Tor inhibition, while matching the translation-rate reduction without Tor inhibition will not restore lysosomal competence.

    20(S)-ginsenoside Rg3 extended lifespan and preserved physiological and neuronal function in Caenorhabditis elegans by restoring lysosomal activity and autophagic flux. Rg3 remodeled neuronal lysosomal phosphoinositide signatures toward increased PI(4)P and reduced PI(3)P, suppressed RSKS-1/S6K–TORC1 signaling, and promoted nuclear HLH-30/TFEB activity, thereby improving proteostasis and resistance to polyglutamine- and α-synuclein-associated toxicity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  71. Which metabolic regulator causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment, and through what molecular mechanism does it suppress cellular senescence and inflammation?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Circulating FGF21 causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment by acting on hippocampal astrocytes and microglia to suppress senescence and neuroinflammation. Age-dependent decline in FGF21 signaling permits SASP-driven synaptic dysfunction that is reversed by restoring FGF21 levels. Mechanism: FGF21 engages FGFR1/β-Klotho, activates AMPK–SIRT1, represses NF-κB and p16INK4a/p21, and thereby lowers SASP cytokine release and senescent cell burden in the hippocampus. Prediction: Peripheral or CNS FGF21 restoration improves memory and reduces SA-β-gal+, p16+, and SASP markers in aged brain independently of systemic glucose changes, whereas FGFR1 or β-Klotho knockdown in glia abolishes these benefits while leaving other circulating factors intact.

    Ghrelin alleviates ageing-related cognitive impairment by promoting autophagy-related activity and reducing senescence and inflammation in microglia through the SHBG/JNK1/Beclin1 axis. SHBG overexpression and JNK1 inhibition attenuate these effects, while Beclin1 overexpression partially restores them, supporting the proposed causal pathway; excessive ghrelin can also cause GHSR desensitization.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  72. Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Naturally occurring mitochondrial DNA haplotype variants alter the rate of ovarian ageing on matched heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds by changing oocyte and granulosa-cell oxidative phosphorylation efficiency. Haplotypes that reduce Complex I/III coupling accelerate primordial-follicle attrition and earlier loss of cyclicity. Mechanism: mtDNA-encoded respiratory-chain polymorphisms elevate electron leak and lower ATP supply in oocytes and supporting somatic cells, increasing ROS-driven DNA damage and premature follicle activation or atresia. Prediction: On identical heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, conplastic or cybrid lines carrying the inefficient mtDNA haplotype will show earlier decline in ovarian reserve, higher oocyte ROS and lower ATP, and earlier anovulation than lines with the efficient haplotype; nuclear-swapped controls will reverse the phenotype with the mtDNA.

    The OKC-HETW mitochondrial haplotype accelerated ovarian ageing, causing faster primordial-follicle loss, inflammatory and fibrotic remodelling, mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired ovulation relative to the OKC-HETB haplotype on equivalently distributed nuclear backgrounds. Despite normal TFAM expression and elevated total TFAM protein, OKC-HETW ovaries had reduced mitochondrial TFAM, TFAM–mtDNA binding and TOMM20, supporting defective mitochondrial protein import and compromised mtDNA maintenance as the mechanism linking haplotype to accelerated decline.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  73. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Senescence of cochlear pericytes and loss of PDGFB–PDGFRβ signaling detach pericyte coverage from strial capillaries, weakening the BLB and triggering local hypoxia and oxidative stress that damage sensory epithelium and cause age-related hearing loss. Mechanism: Pericyte dropout and reduced PDGFRβ signaling compromise capillary stabilization and barrier support, producing microvessel rarefaction, hypoxia, and ROS accumulation that injure hair cells and spiral ganglion neurons. Prediction: Aged animals will exhibit reduced pericyte coverage and PDGFRβ expression on strial vessels preceding measurable ABR threshold shift; pericyte-specific PDGFB restoration will preserve BLB integrity and hearing more effectively than endothelial-only interventions.

    Age-dependent loss of IGF-1 lowers SLC25A33 expression in strial pericytes, causing mitochondrial reactive oxygen species accumulation and activation of TGF-β/Smad2 signaling. This drives pericyte phenotypic switching, disrupts blood-labyrinth barrier integrity, and worsens hearing loss, whereas IGF-1 supplementation or SLC25A33 overexpression suppresses the pathway and partially restores auditory function.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  74. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mild cellular stress extends lifespan by transcriptionally inducing HSF-1, which upregulates a core chaperone set that prevents age-associated protein aggregation and thereby preserves proteostasis. Causality requires HSF-1 and specific chaperone effectors rather than general stress signaling. Mechanism: Transient stress activates HSF-1-driven expression of molecular chaperones that refold or sequester damaged proteins, reducing toxic aggregates during ageing. Prediction: Genetic ablation of HSF-1 or of a defined chaperone effector set abolishes both proteostasis preservation and lifespan extension under mild stress, while leaving autophagy and proteasome capacity intact; restoring only those chaperones rescues both phenotypes.

    In Caenorhabditis elegans, inhibition of mitochondrial respiration activates an intestinal ELT-2-dependent transcriptional program that increases lysosomal proteolysis during ageing, largely independently of the mitochondrial unfolded protein response. Direct promoter binding by ELT-2, requiring residue R249, and the lysosomal proteases CPR-5 and CPR-8 are necessary for toxic polyglutamine aggregate clearance and mitochondrial stress-induced lifespan extension.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  75. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mild stress extends lifespan by activating Nrf1/SKN-1-dependent transcription of proteasome subunits, elevating ubiquitin–proteasome capacity that removes damaged proteins. Enhanced proteasomal degradation is necessary and sufficient for the proteostasis and longevity effects. Mechanism: Stress sensors induce Nrf1/SKN-1, which increases expression of 26S proteasome components and ubiquitin ligases, accelerating turnover of damaged proteins. Prediction: Proteasome inhibition or Nrf1/SKN-1 loss blocks mild-stress longevity and proteostasis gains even when chaperones and autophagy are upregulated; proteasome hyperactivity without stress mimics both outcomes.

    In Caenorhabditis elegans, inhibition of mitochondrial respiration activates an intestinal ELT-2-dependent transcriptional program that increases lysosomal proteolysis during ageing, largely independently of the mitochondrial unfolded protein response. Direct promoter binding by ELT-2, requiring residue R249, and the lysosomal proteases CPR-5 and CPR-8 are necessary for toxic polyglutamine aggregate clearance and mitochondrial stress-induced lifespan extension.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon High, Opus 5.5.

  76. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mild stress preserves proteostasis and extends lifespan by inhibiting TOR and activating AMPK–ULK1 signaling, which induces selective autophagy of damaged or aggregation-prone proteins. Autophagic clearance, not chaperone induction alone, is the causal effector. Mechanism: Stress-dependent TOR inhibition and AMPK activation increase autophagosome formation and lysosomal degradation of misfolded proteins, clearing proteotoxic load. Prediction: Blocking autophagy (e.g., ATG gene loss) eliminates stress-induced proteostasis benefits and longevity despite intact HSF-1/chaperone and proteasome induction; enhancing autophagy without the original stress cue phenocopies both benefits.

    In Caenorhabditis elegans, inhibition of mitochondrial respiration activates an intestinal ELT-2-dependent transcriptional program that increases lysosomal proteolysis during ageing, largely independently of the mitochondrial unfolded protein response. Direct promoter binding by ELT-2, requiring residue R249, and the lysosomal proteases CPR-5 and CPR-8 are necessary for toxic polyglutamine aggregate clearance and mitochondrial stress-induced lifespan extension.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  77. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 maintains L1 silencing by deacetylating histone H3K9/H4K16 at L1 promoter and 5' UTR chromatin; decline of SIRT1 activity during senescence causes L1 transcriptional derepression that accelerates the senescence program. Mechanism: NAD+-dependent local chromatin deacetylation by SIRT1 preserves repressive chromatin at L1 loci; loss of this mark permits RNA polymerase II access and L1 mRNA production. Prediction: ChIP-seq will show increased H3K9ac/H4K16ac and reduced H3K9me3 specifically at L1 5' UTRs after SIRT1 knockdown or catalytic inhibition, preceding elevated L1 RNA and earlier SA-β-gal/p16 induction; a L1-promoter-targeted deacetylase tether will rescue silencing without restoring global SIRT1 activity.

    SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  78. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic psychological stress elevates bone-marrow norepinephrine from sympathetic terminals, which acts through β2-adrenergic receptors on mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells to drive p53/p21-dependent cellular senescence and thereby suppress osteogenic differentiation. Non-invasive peripheral neuromodulation that reduces local norepinephrine tone or blocks β2 signaling will reverse marrow senescence and restore bone formation. Mechanism: Sympathetic norepinephrine → β2-AR → cAMP/PKA → ROS/p53/p21 senescence program in osteoprogenitors Prediction: Marrow β2-AR knockout or selective β2 blockade will abolish stress-induced senescence markers (p16, SA-β-gal) and rescue osteogenesis even when circulating catecholamines remain high, whereas β1-selective blockade will not; peripheral nerve stimulation that lowers marrow NE will phenocopy β2 blockade.

    Sympathetic neuropeptide Y drives stress-induced osteoporosis by activating adipocyte Y1R and inducing senescence in bone marrow adipocytes, which impairs osteogenesis. Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate sensory nerves, causing local semaphorin 3A release that suppresses sympathetic neuropeptide Y secretion through a peripheral circuit independent of central pathways.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  79. What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Cellular senescence in muscle rewires sphingolipid metabolism toward ceramide and sphingosine-1-phosphate accumulation that permeabilizes mitochondrial membranes and inhibits complexes I–IV; inhibiting ceramide synthesis or senolytic removal of ceramide-rich senescent cells therapeutically reverses mitochondrial and functional decline. Mechanism: Senescent-cell serine palmitoyltransferase and acid sphingomyelinase elevate ceramides that insert into mitochondrial membranes, increase permeability transition, and suppress OXPHOS, with spillover to neighboring fibers via extracellular vesicles. Prediction: Pharmacologic SPT inhibition will lower muscle ceramides, restore state-3 respiration and fatigue resistance in aged muscle, and these benefits will be occluded in mice already cleared of senescent cells, indicating ceramides act downstream of senescence.

    Senescence-associated p38 MAPK signaling increases GLS1 expression and activity in skeletal muscle myoblasts, causing intracellular urea accumulation that impairs mitochondrial function. Inhibiting GLS1 with CB-839 lowers urea, restores electron transport chain complexes and mitochondrial respiration, and improves skeletal muscle integrity and strength in progeroid mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5.

  80. What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In ageing skeletal muscle, senescent cells upregulate the NAD+-consuming ectoenzyme CD38, depleting local NAD+ and thereby impairing SIRT3/SIRT1-dependent mitochondrial quality control in neighboring myofibers; restoring NAD+ or inhibiting CD38 reverses mitochondrial respiratory failure and strength loss. Mechanism: Senescent-cell CD38-driven NAD+ drain lowers nuclear and mitochondrial NAD+, reducing deacetylation of OXPHOS and mitophagy regulators, which collapses respiratory capacity and regenerative competence. Prediction: Muscle-restricted CD38 deletion or senolytic clearance will raise intramuscular NAD+, restore complex I/III activity and force production, whereas equal NAD+ precursor dosing without lowering CD38 will be less effective in senescent-rich aged muscle than in young muscle.

    Senescence-associated p38 MAPK signaling increases GLS1 expression and activity in skeletal muscle myoblasts, causing intracellular urea accumulation that impairs mitochondrial function. Inhibiting GLS1 with CB-839 lowers urea, restores electron transport chain complexes and mitochondrial respiration, and improves skeletal muscle integrity and strength in progeroid mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5.

  81. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Maternal ageing elevates CD38 on decidual and circulating immune cells, depleting NAD+ in the shared placental microenvironment and thereby suppressing SIRT1/PARP activity in trophoblasts, which accelerates placental cellular senescence and metabolic failure. Restoring NAD+ or inhibiting maternal CD38 should reverse placental senescence and improve fetal growth. Mechanism: Maternal CD38-driven NAD+ depletion creates a metabolic niche that forces trophoblast senescence. Prediction: Placental NAD+ and SIRT1 activity fall with maternal age in parallel with CD38+ immune infiltration; CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursors restore trophoblast NAD+/SIRT1, reduce senescence markers, and improve fetal outcomes even when maternal chronological age is unchanged.

    Early inflammation and senescence-associated secretory phenotype activity induce IRF5-dependent CD38 expression in macrophages, which depletes NAD+ in decidual stromal cells and thereby promotes age-related placental senescence. Genetic or pharmacological disruption of this axis, including CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursor treatment, reduces placental senescence, rescues intrauterine growth restriction, and improves offspring metabolic outcomes.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  82. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A dose-titratable bispecific immune engager that redirects T cells to a senescence-associated surface antigen will clear a therapeutically relevant fraction of senescent cells in aged mice and non-human primates at exposures below those that trigger systemic cytokine release. Circulating IL-6 and IFN-γ rise steeply only after the efficacious dose window, so their early kinetics can guide safe titration. Mechanism: Target engagement on senescent cells forms an immunological synapse that drives selective cytotoxicity; off-target or excess engagement expands systemic cytokine production once a threshold of T-cell activation is crossed. Prediction: In both species, intermediate engager doses will reduce senescence markers (p16INK4a, SA-β-gal, SASP factors) and improve tissue function without grade ≥2 cytokine release, while cytokine AUC will increase nonlinearly only at higher doses that do not further improve efficacy.

    A GFD-CD3 bispecific T-cell engager targeting uPAR-positive senescent cells caused dose-dependent senolysis and alleviated age-related pathologies in aged mice and non-human primates at low doses. High doses caused hepatotoxicity through T-cell attack on hepatic endothelial cells, while serum aminotransferase monitoring enabled dosing that retained senolytic efficacy without observed adverse effects.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  83. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Therapeutic senolysis by a titratable immune engager depends on antigen density on senescent cells being higher than on essential non-senescent tissues; dosing that saturates high-density targets first will clear senescent cells and reverse age-related pathology before toxicity from low-density off-target killing emerges. Mechanism: Affinity- and avidity-dependent T-cell activation preferentially lyses high-antigen-density senescent cells; as free engager rises, low-density healthy cells become engaged and cause organ toxicity. Prediction: Pharmacodynamic models fitting antigen density will show a separable efficacy–toxicity window in mice and NHPs, and tissue histology will show senescent-cell clearance at doses where non-senescent target-expressing cells remain intact.

    A GFD-CD3 bispecific T-cell engager targeting uPAR-positive senescent cells caused dose-dependent senolysis and alleviated age-related pathologies in aged mice and non-human primates at low doses. High doses caused hepatotoxicity through T-cell attack on hepatic endothelial cells, while serum aminotransferase monitoring enabled dosing that retained senolytic efficacy without observed adverse effects.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

  84. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Vascular aging shortens lifespan by upregulating endothelial CD38, which depletes circulating NAD+ and NAD precursors and thereby impairs SIRT1/SIRT3 activity across organs. Restoring systemic NAD+ or endothelium-specific CD38 inhibition should reverse organism-wide senescence downstream of vascular decline. Mechanism: Aged endothelium ↑CD38 → systemic NAD+ exhaustion → loss of sirtuin-dependent proteostasis and mitochondrial quality control Prediction: Plasma NAD+/NMN falls with endothelial CD38 induction; endothelium-specific Cd38 deletion raises NAD+ in muscle, liver, and brain and extends lifespan more than tissue-specific Cd38 deletion outside endothelium, with little change in circulating IL-6.

    Progressive activation of endothelial C/EBPβ induces AEP, which cleaves NAMPT and thereby causes systemic NAD+ depletion, vascular dysfunction, senescence, and reduced lifespan. Genetic disruption of AEP or expression of cleavage-resistant NAMPT N136A ameliorates these effects, while AEP inhibition or NMN supplementation alleviates age-related vascular decline.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

    Yes votes from Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5, Opus 5.5.

Models and coin on identical hypotheses

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Sonnet 5.545.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
GPT-6 Astra47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
Gemini 4 Argon High44.2%23 / 52Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +26.3 percentage points91%171 / 188Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points85.5%171 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points24052232918817117
Grok 4.528.2%31 / 110Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.3 percentage points93.1%121 / 130Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.5 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points60.5%121 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +11 percentage points24011031791301219
Opus 5.540.4%23 / 57Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points90.7%166 / 183Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24057233418316617
Coin17.9%22 / 12384.6%99 / 11755%22 / 4049.5%99 / 200240123221011179918

All 80 combinations and vote thresholds

These configurations are compared on the same dataset. A best observed score is exploratory; it requires a new independent dataset for validation.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
39.7%29 / 73Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points93.4%156 / 167Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.8 percentage points72.5%29 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points78%156 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points24073294416715611
65.4%17 / 26Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +47.5 percentage points89.3%191 / 214Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.6 percentage points42.5%17 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -12.5 percentage points95.5%191 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +46 percentage points2402617921419123
44.2%23 / 52Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +26.3 percentage points91%171 / 188Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points85.5%171 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36 percentage points24052232918817117
40.8%29 / 71Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points93.5%158 / 169Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.9 percentage points72.5%29 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points79%158 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +29.5 percentage points24071294216915811
55.6%15 / 27Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +37.7 percentage points88.3%188 / 213Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.6 percentage points37.5%15 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -17.5 percentage points94%188 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +44.5 percentage points24027151221318825
39.7%29 / 73Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points93.4%156 / 167Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.8 percentage points72.5%29 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points78%156 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points24073294416715611
59.4%19 / 32Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +41.5 percentage points89.9%187 / 208Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points47.5%19 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -7.5 percentage points93.5%187 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +44 percentage points24032191320818721
37.5%33 / 88Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19.6 percentage points95.4%145 / 152Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points82.5%33 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points72.5%145 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points2408833551521457
51.2%21 / 41Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points90.5%180 / 199Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points90%180 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40.5 percentage points24041212019918019
68.2%15 / 22Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +50.3 percentage points88.5%193 / 218Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.9 percentage points37.5%15 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -17.5 percentage points96.5%193 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47 percentage points2402215721819325
28.2%31 / 110Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.3 percentage points93.1%121 / 130Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.5 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points60.5%121 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +11 percentage points24011031791301219
28%33 / 118Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.1 percentage points94.3%115 / 122Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points82.5%33 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points57.5%115 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points24011833851221157
50%19 / 38Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points89.6%181 / 202Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points47.5%19 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -7.5 percentage points90.5%181 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +41 percentage points24038191920218121
28.7%35 / 122Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points95.8%113 / 118Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.5%35 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points56.5%113 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points24012235871181135
51.2%21 / 41Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points90.5%180 / 199Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points90%180 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40.5 percentage points24041212019918019
28.3%36 / 127Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.5 percentage points96.5%109 / 113Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.8 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points54.5%109 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points24012736911131094
42.4%25 / 59Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +24.5 percentage points91.7%166 / 181Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24059253418116615
69.6%16 / 23Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +51.7 percentage points88.9%193 / 217Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.3 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points96.5%193 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47 percentage points2402316721719324
28.7%35 / 122Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points95.8%113 / 118Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.5%35 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points56.5%113 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points24012235871181135
47.5%19 / 40Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.6 percentage points89.5%179 / 200Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.9 percentage points47.5%19 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -7.5 percentage points89.5%179 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points24040192120017921
28.6%36 / 126Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.7 percentage points96.5%110 / 114Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.9 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points55%110 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points24012636901141104
42.4%25 / 59Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +24.5 percentage points91.7%166 / 181Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24059253418116615
60.9%14 / 23Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +43 percentage points88%191 / 217Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.4 percentage points35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points95.5%191 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +46 percentage points2402314921719126
28.1%36 / 128Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points96.4%108 / 112Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.8 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points54%108 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +4.5 percentage points24012836921121084
44.3%27 / 61Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +26.4 percentage points92.7%166 / 179Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.1 percentage points67.5%27 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24061273417916613
61.5%16 / 26Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +43.7 percentage points88.8%190 / 214Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points95%190 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +45.5 percentage points24026161021419024
28%37 / 132Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.1 percentage points97.2%105 / 108Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.6 percentage points92.5%37 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points52.5%105 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +3 percentage points24013237951081053
41.1%30 / 73Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +23.2 percentage points94%157 / 167Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.4 percentage points75%30 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points78.5%157 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +29 percentage points24073304316715710
51.4%19 / 37Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points89.7%182 / 203Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points47.5%19 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -7.5 percentage points91%182 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +41.5 percentage points24037191820318221
73.7%14 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +55.8 percentage points88.2%195 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.6 percentage points35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points97.5%195 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48 percentage points2401914522119526
40.4%23 / 57Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points90.7%166 / 183Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24057233418316617
38%27 / 71Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +20.1 percentage points92.3%156 / 169Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.7 percentage points67.5%27 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points78%156 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points24071274416915613
53.1%17 / 32Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +35.2 percentage points88.9%185 / 208Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.3 percentage points42.5%17 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -12.5 percentage points92.5%185 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +43 percentage points24032171520818523
38.5%30 / 78Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +20.6 percentage points93.8%152 / 162Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.2 percentage points75%30 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points76%152 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +26.5 percentage points24078304816215210
56.3%18 / 32Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +38.4 percentage points89.4%186 / 208Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.8 percentage points45%18 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -10 percentage points93%186 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +43.5 percentage points24032181420818622
35.6%31 / 87Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +17.7 percentage points94.1%144 / 153Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.5 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points72%144 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points2408731561531449
50%24 / 48Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points91.7%176 / 192Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points60%24 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points88%176 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points24048242419217616
66.7%14 / 21Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +48.8 percentage points88.1%193 / 219Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points96.5%193 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47 percentage points2402114721919326
39.7%29 / 73Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points93.4%156 / 167Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.8 percentage points72.5%29 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points78%156 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points24073294416715611
47.2%17 / 36Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points88.7%181 / 204Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points42.5%17 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -12.5 percentage points90.5%181 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +41 percentage points24036171920418123
37.8%31 / 82Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19.9 percentage points94.3%149 / 158Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.7 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points74.5%149 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points2408231511581499
45.1%23 / 51Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.2 percentage points91%172 / 189Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.4 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24051232818917217
59.1%13 / 22Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +41.2 percentage points87.6%191 / 218Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3 percentage points32.5%13 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -22.5 percentage points95.5%191 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +46 percentage points2402213921819127
36.8%32 / 87Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +18.9 percentage points94.8%145 / 153Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points80%32 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points72.5%145 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points2408732551531458
48%24 / 50Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +30.1 percentage points91.6%174 / 190Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points60%24 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points87%174 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points24050242619017416
60%15 / 25Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +42.1 percentage points88.4%190 / 215Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.8 percentage points37.5%15 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -17.5 percentage points95%190 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +45.5 percentage points24025151021519025
35.1%33 / 94Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +17.2 percentage points95.2%139 / 146Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +10.6 percentage points82.5%33 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points69.5%139 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +20 percentage points2409433611461397
45.2%28 / 62Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.3 percentage points93.3%166 / 178Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.6 percentage points70%28 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +15 percentage points83%166 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24062283417816612
54.5%18 / 33Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +36.7 percentage points89.4%185 / 207Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.8 percentage points45%18 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -10 percentage points92.5%185 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +43 percentage points24033181520718522
68.4%13 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +50.5 percentage points87.8%194 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points32.5%13 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -22.5 percentage points97%194 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47.5 percentage points2401913622119427
27.5%33 / 120Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points94.2%113 / 120Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points82.5%33 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points56.5%113 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points24012033871201137
44.7%21 / 47Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +26.8 percentage points90.2%174 / 193Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87%174 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points24047212619317419
27.4%34 / 124Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.5 percentage points94.8%110 / 116Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points85%34 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +30 percentage points55%110 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points24012434901161106
41%25 / 61Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +23.1 percentage points91.6%164 / 179Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points82%164 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points24061253617916415
57.1%16 / 28Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +39.3 percentage points88.7%188 / 212Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points94%188 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +44.5 percentage points24028161221218824
27.6%35 / 127Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.7 percentage points95.6%108 / 113Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11 percentage points87.5%35 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points54%108 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +4.5 percentage points24012735921131085
42.4%28 / 66Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +24.5 percentage points93.1%162 / 174Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.5 percentage points70%28 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +15 percentage points81%162 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +31.5 percentage points24066283817416212
59.3%16 / 27Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +41.4 percentage points88.7%189 / 213Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points94.5%189 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +45 percentage points24027161121318924
27.5%36 / 131Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points96.3%105 / 109Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.7 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points52.5%105 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +3 percentage points24013136951091054
38.9%28 / 72Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21 percentage points92.9%156 / 168Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.2 percentage points70%28 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +15 percentage points78%156 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28.5 percentage points24072284416815612
51.1%23 / 45Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.2 percentage points91.3%178 / 195Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.7 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points89%178 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39.5 percentage points24045232219517817
72.2%13 / 18Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +54.3 percentage points87.8%195 / 222Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points32.5%13 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -22.5 percentage points97.5%195 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48 percentage points2401813522219527
28.6%36 / 126Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.7 percentage points96.5%110 / 114Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.9 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points55%110 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points24012636901141104
39.7%25 / 63Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.8 percentage points91.5%162 / 177Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points81%162 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +31.5 percentage points24063253817716215
53.3%16 / 30Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +35.4 percentage points88.6%186 / 210Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points40%16 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -15 percentage points93%186 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +43.5 percentage points24030161421018624
28.7%37 / 129Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points97.3%108 / 111Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.7 percentage points92.5%37 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points54%108 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +4.5 percentage points24012937921111083
36.6%26 / 71Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +18.7 percentage points91.7%155 / 169Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points65%26 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +10 percentage points77.5%155 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +28 percentage points24071264516915514
50%23 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points91.2%177 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points88.5%177 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points24046232319417717
63.2%12 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +45.3 percentage points87.3%193 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +2.7 percentage points30%12 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points96.5%193 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +47 percentage points2401912722119328
27.7%36 / 130Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.8 percentage points96.4%106 / 110Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +11.7 percentage points90%36 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +35 percentage points53%106 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points24013036941101064
39.7%31 / 78Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +21.9 percentage points94.4%153 / 162Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.8 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points76.5%153 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +27 percentage points2407831471621539
50%21 / 42Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points90.4%179 / 198Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points89.5%179 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +40 percentage points24042212119817919
63.6%14 / 22Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +45.8 percentage points88.1%192 / 218Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points96%192 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +46.5 percentage points2402214821819226
27.8%37 / 133Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +9.9 percentage points97.2%104 / 107Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.6 percentage points92.5%37 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points52%104 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points24013337961071043
36.9%31 / 84Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +19 percentage points94.2%147 / 156Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points77.5%31 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +22.5 percentage points73.5%147 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +24 percentage points2408431531561479
48.1%25 / 52Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +30.2 percentage points92%173 / 188Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86.5%173 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +37 percentage points24052252718817315
54.5%18 / 33Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +36.7 percentage points89.4%185 / 207Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.8 percentage points45%18 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -10 percentage points92.5%185 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +43 percentage points24033181520718522
75%12 / 16Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +57.1 percentage points87.5%196 / 224Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +2.9 percentage points30%12 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points98%196 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48.5 percentage points2401612422419628
Protocol and limitations for Grok hypotheses

All combinations are exploratory on these same 50 questions. Confidence intervals use 10,000 resamples of whole original questions, keeping five hypotheses together. Complete per-request tool-restriction evidence is unavailable for historical generation and judging; current forecasts are separately audited. The 50/50 test uses one hypothesis per request and this test uses five. Predictive values also depend on the different positive-outcome prevalences of the two cohorts.

Each question with five hypotheses allows two logical response attempts. Retransmissions caused by connection failures are counted separately. Full replies and attempt histories are retained; reference outcomes never determine retries.

Before these new calls, the existing extraction rule was fixed as the primary analysis. For each request it takes the first complete reply containing exactly one JSON object with all original identities and explicit boolean forecasts, allowing accompanying prose. Ambiguous or incomplete replies and identity/value substitutions are rejected. Both the strict-format analysis and all full replies are retained, within the same two-response limit.

Grok receives the exact historical final-answer control in both system and user tail. The scientific question and hypothesis are identical across providers; all technical instructions and requests are downloadable.

Grok hypotheses, forecasts and reconstruction

Two-stage selection on hypotheses from Grok, Gemini and Opus

The fixed rule first retains hypotheses forecast yes by GPT-6 Astra, then requires yes from Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High and Grok 4.5. It was chosen after inspecting Grok forecasts. The Gemini and Opus forecasts were collected after the rule was frozen, with 250 original hypotheses per generator.

Article correspondence means that at least two of three historical judges from companies other than the generator assigned score 3 or higher. No new laboratory experiments were performed. Positive predictive value counts article matches among selected hypotheses; sensitivity counts selected article matches among all article matches in the usable input.

Hypothesis generator▲Usable hypotheses▲Article matches in input▲Retained by Astra▲Final selection▲Article matches among selected hypotheses▲Selected among all article matches▲
Grok 4.524040531914/19 = 73.7%
95% interval 52.9% to 91.7%
14/40 = 35%
95% interval 25% to 46.2%
Gemini 4 Argon High2503351199/19 = 47.4%
95% interval 25% to 70%
9/33 = 27.3%
95% interval 12.9% to 42.4%
Opus 5.525045492214/22 = 63.6%
95% interval 42.9% to 81.8%
14/45 = 31.1%
95% interval 18.2% to 44.2%

Each row uses all hypotheses with usable forecasts from every required model in that cohort. Technical omissions are excluded before applying the rule. Fractions name the numerator and denominator; intervals are descriptive 95% original-question cluster intervals. The sections below list exact exclusions, stage losses and the original coin comparison. The Grok row preserves its original five-predictor common mask; the new cohorts require the four predictors of the fixed rule.

Comparison on shared original questions

For this comparison only, retain the same 48 original questions with complete five-hypothesis forecasts in all three cohorts: 240 hypotheses per generator. Resample whole questions jointly 10,000 times. Each difference is the first named generator minus the second, in percentage points.

Grok 4.5: article matches among selected = 14/19 = 73.7%; selected among all article matches = 14/40 = 35%.

Gemini 4 Argon High: article matches among selected = 9/19 = 47.4%; selected among all article matches = 9/32 = 28.1%.

Opus 5.5: article matches among selected = 13/20 = 65%; selected among all article matches = 13/44 = 29.5%.

First generator / second generator▲Difference in positive predictive value, pp▲Difference in sensitivity, pp▲
Grok 4.5 / Gemini 4 Argon High+26.3
95% interval -0.2 to +52.6 pp
+6.9
95% interval -9.7 to +24 pp
Grok 4.5 / Opus 5.5+8.7
95% interval -21.2 to +37.3 pp
+5.5
95% interval -11.2 to +21.2 pp
Gemini 4 Argon High / Opus 5.5-17.6
95% interval -46.4 to +11 pp
-1.4
95% interval -21.8 to +18.4 pp

These are descriptive checks of transfer across generators. The intervals are pointwise and have no multiplicity adjustment. An interval containing zero allows differences in either direction; it does not establish equivalence. An equivalence margin was not preregistered. Similar observed yields alone do not establish a stable article-correspondence yield among selections on new hypotheses.

The hypotheses, judges’ labels and original questions are historical. The three generators answer the same original questions, so the cohorts are dependent. Judge rosters differ by generator because same-company judges are excluded. Some predictors share companies with the generator or a historical judge; the individual sections disclose these relationships. A prospective check on new experimental outcomes remains a separate study. Positive predictive value also depends on the proportion of article-matching hypotheses before selection; the input and reference-positive counts in the table make that proportion explicit.

Cross-generator counts, paired intervals and source hashes (JSON)

Two-stage selection of 240 hypotheses with four-model unanimity

This fixed path uses recorded yes/no forecasts for hypotheses generated by Grok 4.5. First, GPT-6 Astra forecasts the outcome of all 240 hypotheses; only those with its yes forecast proceed. Second, the retained hypotheses receive a final yes only when all four models agree: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5. Astra’s first-stage forecast is reused as its vote.

An article match means that at least two of three judges assigned a correspondence score of 3 or higher. This comparison measures correspondence with the article. We did not perform laboratory experiments to validate the generated hypotheses.

The final selection contains 19 hypotheses. Of these, 14 correspond to the article and 5 fall below the article-correspondence threshold. The proportion corresponding to the article among selected hypotheses is 14/19 = 73.7%. This is the positive predictive value of the final forecast.

  1. 1. All 240 hypotheses240 hypotheses: 40 correspond to the article, 200 fall below the threshold.
  2. 2. Screening by GPT-6 Astra53 receive a yes: 25 correspond to the article, 28 fall below the threshold. Astra rejects 187 hypotheses, including 15 that correspond to the article.
  3. 3. All four models forecast yesSonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.519 remain: 14 correspond to the article and 5 fall below the threshold. This stage removes another 34 hypotheses, including 11 that correspond to the article.

The path retains 14 of the 40 hypotheses that correspond to the article: sensitivity = 14/40 = 35%. It misses 26 such hypotheses: 15 at stage one and another 11 at stage two. The yield among the selected hypotheses and the proportion recovered from all article matches have different denominators.

Four metrics of the final forecast on all 240 hypotheses

The comparison uses the original saved coin tosses for the identical 240 hypotheses. The coin forecasts yes for 123 hypotheses, of which 22 correspond to the article. Each metric below gives its own numerator and denominator for the selection path and for the coin.

Usable forecasts: 240. Yes: 19, comprising 14 correct and 5 incorrect forecasts. No: 221, comprising 195 correct and 26 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 19 hypotheses. Of these, 14 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.73.7%14 / 19Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +55.8 percentage points95% interval 52.9% to 91.7%95% interval for the difference: +38 to +74 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 221 hypotheses. Of these, 195 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.88.2%195 / 221Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.6 percentage points95% interval 83.3% to 92.8%95% interval for the difference: -1.6 to +8.8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 40 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 14 of these.35%14 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -20 percentage points95% interval 25% to 46.2%95% interval for the difference: -39 to +2.6 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 200 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 195 of these.97.5%195 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +48 percentage points95% interval 95.3% to 99.5%95% interval for the difference: +40.9 to +54.8 percentage points

Pointwise descriptive 95% intervals use 2,000 paired bootstrap draws of complete original source tasks. They account for within-task dependence. They are not adjusted for examining multiple rules and do not validate the selected rule independently.

Forecasts required by this path

Astra supplies 240 model/hypothesis forecasts at stage one. Each of the 53 retained hypotheses needs three further model forecasts, giving 159 additional forecasts and 399 in total. Applying all four models to all 240 hypotheses would require 960. One unit is one model’s forecast for one hypothesis. Actual request counts, token use, cost and elapsed time were not measured for this simulated path.

The cohort is fixed before applying the rule: 240 hypotheses from 48 original tasks, with recorded forecasts available for all five models in the original comparison. Ten of the original 250 hypotheses are excluded for technical omissions; two of those ten correspond to the article. This section uses unambiguous forecasts extracted from the saved responses and the score-3 article-correspondence endpoint throughout.

Inspect all 19 selected hypotheses

Each entry provides the article-correspondence outcome, the full original hypothesis, the article’s reference finding, the original judges’ scores and links to the task and article. All four recorded forecasts are yes for every listed hypothesis.

  1. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-elevated circulating TGF-β1 is a causal driver of multi-tissue cellular senescence and organismal ageing. Chronic exposure of young tissues to aged plasma levels of TGF-β1 is sufficient to induce p16INK4a/p21-positive senescence and accelerate functional decline. Mechanism: Circulating TGF-β1 binds TGFBR1/2, activates Smad2/3–Smad4 complexes that transcriptionally induce CDKN2A/CDKN1A and remodel chromatin toward a stable senescence program, while also reinforcing SASP output that further elevates systemic TGF-β1. Prediction: Neutralizing circulating TGF-β1 (or tissue-specific TGFBR1 deletion) in aged animals will reduce senescence markers across distant organs and improve healthspan metrics more than neutralizing IL-6 or insulin signaling alone; conversely, sustained infusion of TGF-β1 into young animals will recapitulate the aged senescence signature even when inflammatory cytokines remain low.

    ANGPTL8 directly interacts with AKT2 and activates the AKT–mTOR–S6K pathway, thereby driving cell-autonomous adipocyte senescence. Deleting Angptl8 in mice reduces adipose senescence, delays age-related functional decline, and extends lifespan, while genetic or pharmacological pathway inhibition abolishes ANGPTL8-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  2. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in osteocyte Piezo1 (or associated ion-channel/Ca2+ entry) blunts early mechanotransduction, so downstream anabolic gene programs are not activated by physiological strain. Agonism or overexpression of Piezo1 will restore loading responsiveness in aged bone. Mechanism: Reduced Piezo1-dependent calcium influx and YAP/TAZ or NFAT activation in osteocytes cuts the initiation of load-adaptive transcriptional responses. Prediction: Aged osteocytes will show weaker load-evoked Ca2+ transients and Piezo1-dependent gene induction; Piezo1 activation will rescue formation indices after loading, while Piezo1 loss in young bone will phenocopy the aged loading defect.

    In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  3. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging reduces injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina because chronic low-grade inflammation progressively impairs Müller glial competence to activate neurogenic programs after injury. Suppressing age-associated inflammatory signaling in old retina should restore reprogramming efficiency toward youthful levels. Mechanism: Persistent innate immune activation (inflammaging) elevates NF-κB/STAT-driven glial reactivity that antagonizes Ascl1 and related neurogenic gene networks required for Müller glia-to-neuron conversion after injury. Prediction: Aged retinas will show higher baseline and post-injury inflammatory cytokine signatures coincident with fewer reprogrammed neurons; neutralizing key inflammatory mediators (e.g., IL-6/TNF or microglial depletion) will increase reprogrammed neuron yield in old but not young animals, whereas adding the same cytokines to young tissue will reduce yield.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  4. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Experimentally elevating the somatic mtDNA mutation rate in a large mammal will accelerate multi-tissue functional decline and shorten median and maximum lifespan relative to isogenic controls with a wild-type mtDNA polymerase proofreading capacity. Mechanism: Proofreading-deficient mtDNA polymerase increases the load of random somatic mtDNA mutations, impairing oxidative phosphorylation, elevating ROS and bioenergetic failure in post-mitotic and stem-cell niches, and thereby driving systemic ageing phenotypes. Prediction: Mutator animals will show dose-dependent earlier onset of sarcopenia, anemia, fertility loss, and cardiac dysfunction together with reduced lifespan, with these traits correlating quantitatively with measured tissue mtDNA mutation burden and respiratory-chain deficiency.

    Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  5. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated mitochondrial DNA damage in oocytes and granulosa cells releases oxidized mtDNA into the cytosol, which activates cGAS–STING and thereby initiates type-I interferon and NF-κB inflammatory programs that impair follicle survival and steroidogenesis. Mechanism: Cytosolic mtDNA sensing by cGAS–STING drives interferon and NF-κB transcription in follicular cells, creating a local inflammatory milieu that reduces oocyte competence and granulosa endocrine function. Prediction: Ovary-specific cGAS or STING deletion (or mtDNA packaging rescue) will reduce follicular inflammatory transcripts and preserve ovulation and estradiol output with age, whereas parallel inflammasome blockade alone will not fully rescue the same endpoints.

    Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  6. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In vivo correction of the HGPS-causing LMNA mutation before a critical developmental window fully restores osteoblast differentiation, bone matrix deposition, and adult bone mechanical integrity because early progerin toxicity primarily impairs formation rather than locking in irreversible structural damage. Mechanism: Progerin-driven nuclear lamina dysfunction and DNA-damage signaling in osteoprogenitors disrupt Runx2/Osterix programs during peak bone accrual; removing progerin early reopens normal lineage progression and mineralization before cortical architecture is permanently compromised. Prediction: Correction in juvenile animals normalizes osteoblast transcriptomes, mineral apposition rate, cortical thickness, and fracture toughness to wild-type levels, whereas identical correction after skeletal maturity leaves residual deficits in geometry and strength despite molecular normalization.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  7. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Natural allelic variation in a rice IAA-amido synthetase (OsGH3-family) gene alters free auxin homeostasis in developing seeds, changing seed-coat structure and thereby storage longevity. Accessions carrying a high-activity longevity allele conjugate more IAA, produce a less permeable coat, and retain higher germination after aging. Mechanism: Auxin conjugation reduces free IAA during late seed maturation, remodeling testa cell-wall and cuticle deposition and slowing oxidative aging. Prediction: Near-isogenic lines that differ only at the OsGH3 longevity QTL will show correlated differences in free IAA, seed-coat permeability (tetrazolium uptake), and post-aging germination; CRISPR knockout of the high-longevity allele will shorten longevity without changing primary yield components when auxin is restored chemically.

    Natural variation at qSL6 causally determines rice seed longevity through SL6, a fatty acyl-ACP thioesterase that changes seed fatty-acid composition and increases resistance to oxidation. Desiccation-induced ABA signaling activates SL6 through VP1, while a virus-derived CT-rich element in the 5′ UTR of the ancestral SL6HHZ allele stabilizes its mRNA bidirectionally and contributes to longevity differences between indica and japonica rice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 1; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  8. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Dihydrotestosterone-bound androgen receptor transcriptionally represses PGC-1α in dermal papilla cells, collapsing mitochondrial biogenesis and antioxidant capacity. The resulting electron-transport inefficiency elevates ROS, which accelerates cellular senescence and shortens anagen. Mechanism: AR-dependent transcriptional downregulation of the PGC-1α–NRF1/TFAM biogenesis axis, with secondary loss of SOD2/GPX activity. Prediction: Forced PGC-1α expression or AR DNA-binding blockade will restore mtDNA copy number and oxygen consumption and reduce SA-β-gal/p16 under DHT, whereas NOX or inflammasome inhibitors will not fully rescue biogenesis markers.

    SFRP2 binds FSTL1 and increases its protein stability, establishing an SFRP2–FSTL1 axis that exacerbates DHT-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammation and senescence in dermal papilla cells. SFRP2 knockdown alleviated these defects and improved hair regeneration and follicle morphology, while FSTL1 knockdown counteracted the harmful effects of SFRP2 overexpression.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 0; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  9. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In ulcerative colitis, chronic metabolic stress damages mitochondria in lamina propria T cells, releasing mtDNA into the cytosol; cytosolic mtDNA activates cGAS–STING, which drives a senescence program that produces a SASP that amplifies mucosal inflammation and impairs epithelial repair. Mechanism: Mitochondrial damage → cytosolic mtDNA → cGAS–STING → immune-cell senescence → SASP-driven colitis exacerbation Prediction: Selective blockade or genetic deletion of cGAS or STING in T cells will reduce senescence markers (p16, SA-β-gal), lower SASP cytokines in the mucosa, and improve histological colitis scores even when upstream mitochondrial stress persists; exogenous cytosolic mtDNA will recapitulate senescence and worsen disease in a STING-dependent manner.

    NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  10. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A cell-free regenerative preparation alleviates UV-induced photoaging by restoring mitophagy in keratinocytes and fibroblasts, which clears dysfunctional mitochondria and thereby reduces mitochondrial danger-signal release that drives senescence and sterile inflammation. Mechanism: Enhanced PINK1/Parkin-dependent mitophagy lowers mtDNA and ROS leakage, interrupting NLRP3 inflammasome activation and SASP maintenance. Prediction: Pharmacologic or genetic blockade of mitophagy will abolish the therapy’s anti-senescence and anti-inflammatory benefits even when barrier and collagen markers partially recover; mitophagy flux reporters and circulating mtDNA will normalize only in treated, mitophagy-competent skin.

    Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell secretome protects against UV-induced photoaging by enhancing mitophagy, which clears damaged mitochondria and reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage. This suppresses cGAS-STING signaling and downstream inflammatory cytokines; mitophagy inhibition abolishes protection, while STING inhibition restores it.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  11. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related loss of sympathetic innervation density and norepinephrine release in subcutaneous white adipose tissue causally impairs β3-adrenergic recruitment of thermogenic (beige) adipocytes. Restoring local catecholaminergic tone would therefore rescue cold- or agonist-induced browning in aged animals. Mechanism: Progressive sympathetic axon rarefaction and reduced vesicular norepinephrine availability lower β3-AR–cAMP–PKA signaling in adipocyte progenitors and mature adipocytes, preventing UCP1 induction and beige differentiation. Prediction: Aged scWAT will show reduced tyrosine hydroxylase+ fiber density and lower tissue norepinephrine; local β3-agonist delivery or chemogenetic reactivation of adipose-projecting sympathetic neurons will restore UCP1+ beige adipocytes and cold-induced energy expenditure without requiring systemic endocrine rescue.

    Microglial ALKBH5 suppresses Ntf5 expression by demethylating Ntf5 mRNA, thereby limiting activation of PVH TrkB-positive neurons, sympathetic innervation of subcutaneous white adipose tissue, and adipocyte browning. Microglia-specific ALKBH5 knockout preserved brown adipocytes and improved metabolic activity during ageing in male mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  12. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Selective pharmacological activation of AMPK is sufficient to extend lifespan in evolutionarily distant invertebrates and to induce longevity-associated physiological and molecular signatures in mammals. The longevity benefit is caused by AMPK itself rather than off-target pharmacology of multi-target drugs. Mechanism: Direct AMPK activation increases catabolic programs (fatty-acid oxidation, autophagy, mitochondrial biogenesis) and dampens anabolic growth signaling, shifting cells into a conserved energy-sparing, stress-resistant state that slows aging. Prediction: A highly selective AMPK agonist will extend lifespan in C. elegans and Drosophila and, in mice, raise AMPK activity, improve metabolic healthspan markers, and induce transcriptomic/proteomic aging-delay signatures, whereas chemically related inactive analogs will not.

    Direct pharmacological activation of AMPK with compound 991 extends lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Schizosaccharomyces pombe. In mice, 991 induces a proteomic profile associated with pro-longevity biology, supporting the translational potential of AMPK activation.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  13. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin expression specifically in vascular smooth muscle cells is sufficient to cause medial VSMC depletion and collagen-rich extracellular-matrix accumulation, independently of endothelial or adventitial progerin. Mechanism: Cell-autonomous nuclear lamina disruption in VSMCs triggers DNA damage responses, senescence and apoptosis, while dysregulating matrix gene programs that favor collagen deposition and medial remodeling. Prediction: Mice or vessel organoids with VSMC-restricted LMNA G609G (or equivalent) will reproduce medial VSMC loss and collagen accumulation, whereas endothelium- or adventitia-restricted progerin will not.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  14. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Time-restricted feeding protects against accelerated cardiovascular ageing by restoring intestinal epithelial barrier integrity, thereby limiting chronic low-grade endotoxemia that drives endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffening. The barrier restoration is necessary and sufficient for the vascular benefit under otherwise matched caloric intake. Mechanism: Extended daily fasting upregulates tight-junction proteins (e.g., occludin, claudin-1) and mucus production via circadian and AMPK-dependent pathways in enterocytes; reduced translocation of LPS and other microbial products lowers TLR4/NF-κB signaling in endothelium and vascular smooth muscle, slowing hypertension, stiffening, and maladaptive remodeling. Prediction: In aged or progeroid models, TRF that improves gut barrier markers and lowers plasma LPS will prevent arterial stiffening and endothelial dysfunction, whereas TRF combined with experimental barrier disruption (or chronic low-dose LPS infusion matched to ad libitum levels) will abolish protection despite preserved feeding-window compliance and body weight.

    Time-restricted feeding enriches acetate-producing Limosilactobacillus, and microbiota-derived acetate is necessary and sufficient for its protection against angiotensin II-induced cardiovascular ageing. Acetate activates GPR43, inhibits HDAC3, increases H4K8 acetylation, and suppresses NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis and cellular senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  15. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic low-dose Tor inhibition preserves lysosomal acidification and autophagic flux during aging, which sustains protein homeostasis and extends lifespan. The benefit depends on maintained lysosomal protease activity rather than reduced protein synthesis alone. Mechanism: Reduced mTORC1 signaling derepresses TFEB/HLH-30 nuclear translocation, upregulating lysosomal biogenesis and v-ATPase subunits, thereby keeping lumenal pH low and clearance competent with age. Prediction: Genetic or pharmacological blockade of TFEB/HLH-30 or v-ATPase will abolish lifespan extension and lysosomal pH preservation under Tor inhibition, while matching the translation-rate reduction without Tor inhibition will not restore lysosomal competence.

    20(S)-ginsenoside Rg3 extended lifespan and preserved physiological and neuronal function in Caenorhabditis elegans by restoring lysosomal activity and autophagic flux. Rg3 remodeled neuronal lysosomal phosphoinositide signatures toward increased PI(4)P and reduced PI(3)P, suppressed RSKS-1/S6K–TORC1 signaling, and promoted nuclear HLH-30/TFEB activity, thereby improving proteostasis and resistance to polyglutamine- and α-synuclein-associated toxicity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  16. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 maintains L1 silencing by deacetylating histone H3K9/H4K16 at L1 promoter and 5' UTR chromatin; decline of SIRT1 activity during senescence causes L1 transcriptional derepression that accelerates the senescence program. Mechanism: NAD+-dependent local chromatin deacetylation by SIRT1 preserves repressive chromatin at L1 loci; loss of this mark permits RNA polymerase II access and L1 mRNA production. Prediction: ChIP-seq will show increased H3K9ac/H4K16ac and reduced H3K9me3 specifically at L1 5' UTRs after SIRT1 knockdown or catalytic inhibition, preceding elevated L1 RNA and earlier SA-β-gal/p16 induction; a L1-promoter-targeted deacetylase tether will rescue silencing without restoring global SIRT1 activity.

    SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  17. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic psychological stress elevates bone-marrow norepinephrine from sympathetic terminals, which acts through β2-adrenergic receptors on mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells to drive p53/p21-dependent cellular senescence and thereby suppress osteogenic differentiation. Non-invasive peripheral neuromodulation that reduces local norepinephrine tone or blocks β2 signaling will reverse marrow senescence and restore bone formation. Mechanism: Sympathetic norepinephrine → β2-AR → cAMP/PKA → ROS/p53/p21 senescence program in osteoprogenitors Prediction: Marrow β2-AR knockout or selective β2 blockade will abolish stress-induced senescence markers (p16, SA-β-gal) and rescue osteogenesis even when circulating catecholamines remain high, whereas β1-selective blockade will not; peripheral nerve stimulation that lowers marrow NE will phenocopy β2 blockade.

    Sympathetic neuropeptide Y drives stress-induced osteoporosis by activating adipocyte Y1R and inducing senescence in bone marrow adipocytes, which impairs osteogenesis. Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate sensory nerves, causing local semaphorin 3A release that suppresses sympathetic neuropeptide Y secretion through a peripheral circuit independent of central pathways.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  18. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Maternal ageing elevates CD38 on decidual and circulating immune cells, depleting NAD+ in the shared placental microenvironment and thereby suppressing SIRT1/PARP activity in trophoblasts, which accelerates placental cellular senescence and metabolic failure. Restoring NAD+ or inhibiting maternal CD38 should reverse placental senescence and improve fetal growth. Mechanism: Maternal CD38-driven NAD+ depletion creates a metabolic niche that forces trophoblast senescence. Prediction: Placental NAD+ and SIRT1 activity fall with maternal age in parallel with CD38+ immune infiltration; CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursors restore trophoblast NAD+/SIRT1, reduce senescence markers, and improve fetal outcomes even when maternal chronological age is unchanged.

    Early inflammation and senescence-associated secretory phenotype activity induce IRF5-dependent CD38 expression in macrophages, which depletes NAD+ in decidual stromal cells and thereby promotes age-related placental senescence. Genetic or pharmacological disruption of this axis, including CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursor treatment, reduces placental senescence, rescues intrauterine growth restriction, and improves offspring metabolic outcomes.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  19. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A dose-titratable bispecific immune engager that redirects T cells to a senescence-associated surface antigen will clear a therapeutically relevant fraction of senescent cells in aged mice and non-human primates at exposures below those that trigger systemic cytokine release. Circulating IL-6 and IFN-γ rise steeply only after the efficacious dose window, so their early kinetics can guide safe titration. Mechanism: Target engagement on senescent cells forms an immunological synapse that drives selective cytotoxicity; off-target or excess engagement expands systemic cytokine production once a threshold of T-cell activation is crossed. Prediction: In both species, intermediate engager doses will reduce senescence markers (p16INK4a, SA-β-gal, SASP factors) and improve tissue function without grade ≥2 cytokine release, while cytokine AUC will increase nonlinearly only at higher doses that do not further improve efficacy.

    A GFD-CD3 bispecific T-cell engager targeting uPAR-positive senescent cells caused dose-dependent senolysis and alleviated age-related pathologies in aged mice and non-human primates at low doses. High doses caused hepatotoxicity through T-cell attack on hepatic endothelial cells, while serum aminotransferase monitoring enabled dosing that retained senolytic efficacy without observed adverse effects.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

Scope of this retrospective result

This is an exploratory reconstruction from recorded forecasts. The rule was chosen after inspecting results, and new model forecasts were not requested. The observed 14/19 yield describes this selection on this corpus; it does not establish a 73.7% success probability for new hypotheses. Independent prospective validation is needed to estimate performance on new data. Earlier selection rules and their archives remain available in the other benchmark sections.

Protocol and results for reuse

Two-stage selection tested on 250 original Gemini hypotheses

For each of 50 original tasks, Gemini 4 Argon High received background information and a research question and proposed five hypotheses. This section applies fixed two-stage selection to those hypotheses, with new forecasts requested for this purpose. The rule was recorded in the protocol before any of these forecasts existed. First, GPT-6 Astra forecasts the outcome of all 250 hypotheses; only those with its yes forecast proceed. Second, a hypothesis is retained only when all four models forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5. Astra’s first-stage forecast is reused as its vote.

Article correspondence means that at least two of three reference judge models assigned a score of 3 or higher. This analysis uses their previously recorded scores; no new laboratory experiments were performed on the generated hypotheses.

The final selection contains 19 hypotheses. Of these, 9 correspond to the article and 10 fall below the article-correspondence threshold. The proportion corresponding to the article among selected hypotheses is 9/19 = 47.4%. This is the positive predictive value of the final forecast.

  1. 1. All 250 hypotheses250 hypotheses: 33 correspond to the article, 217 fall below the threshold.
  2. 2. Screening by GPT-6 Astra51 receive a yes: 14 correspond to the article, 37 fall below the threshold. Astra rejects 199 hypotheses, including 19 that correspond to the article.
  3. 3. All four models forecast yesSonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.519 remain: 9 correspond to the article and 10 fall below the threshold. This stage removes another 32 hypotheses, including 5 that correspond to the article.

The path retains 9 of the 33 hypotheses that correspond to the article: sensitivity = 9/33 = 27.3%. It misses 24 such hypotheses: 19 at stage one and another 5 at stage two. The yield among the selected hypotheses and the proportion recovered from all article matches have different denominators.

Four metrics of the final forecast on all 250 hypotheses

The comparison uses the original saved coin tosses for the identical 250 hypotheses. The coin forecasts yes for 132 hypotheses, of which 16 correspond to the article. Each metric below gives its own numerator and denominator for the selection path and for the coin.

The cohort contains 250 hypotheses. The selection retains 19: 9 correspond to the article and 10 fall below its correspondence threshold. The selection excludes 231: 207 fall below the threshold and 24 correspond to the article.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 19 hypotheses. Of these, 9 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.47.4%9 / 19Coin: 12.1% (16 / 132)Difference from the coin: +35.2 percentage points95% interval 25% to 70%95% interval for the difference: +12.5 to +57.1 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 231 hypotheses. Of these, 207 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.89.6%207 / 231Coin: 85.6% (101 / 118)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points95% interval 85.8% to 93%95% interval for the difference: -1.1 to +9.4 percentage points
Sensitivity of the final forecastThe input cohort contains 33 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 9 of these.27.3%9 / 33Coin: 48.5% (16 / 33)Difference from the coin: -21.2 percentage points95% interval 12.9% to 42.4%95% interval for the difference: -45.5 to +2.9 percentage points
Specificity of the final forecastThe input cohort contains 217 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 207 of these.95.4%207 / 217Coin: 46.5% (101 / 217)Difference from the coin: +48.8 percentage points95% interval 92.7% to 97.7%95% interval for the difference: +41.3 to +55.5 percentage points

Pointwise descriptive 95% intervals use 2,000 paired resamples of complete original questions. This preserves dependence among the five hypotheses of a question. No multiplicity adjustment is applied. The rule was fixed before this cohort’s new forecasts; the original questions and judges’ scores come from the earlier experiment.

Forecasts required by this path

Astra supplies 250 model/hypothesis forecasts at stage one. Each of the 51 retained hypotheses needs three further model forecasts, giving 153 additional forecasts and 403 in total. Applying all four models to all 250 hypotheses would require 1000. One unit is one model’s forecast for one hypothesis. In the actual run every model received 50 original questions with five hypotheses each. The two-stage decision is reconstructed by identity; these unit counts describe the selection path. Actual logical response attempts, underlying transport attempts and tokens are retained in the downloadable forecast reports.

The cohort is fixed before applying the rule: 250 hypotheses from 50 original tasks with usable forecasts from all four models. All 250 hypotheses have usable forecasts from every model. The reference judges for Gemini-generated hypotheses are the three reference judge models from other companies used in the earlier evaluation: GPT-5.6 Sol, Opus 5.5 and Grok 4.7. This section uses unambiguous forecasts extracted from the saved responses and the score-3 article-correspondence endpoint throughout.

Inspect all 19 selected hypotheses

Each entry provides the article-correspondence outcome, the full original hypothesis, the article’s reference finding, the original judges’ scores and links to the task and article. All four recorded forecasts are yes for every listed hypothesis.

  1. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related elevation of circulating interleukin-11 (IL-11) causally promotes multi-organ cellular senescence, metabolic dysfunction, and organismal ageing. Secreted progressively by aged hepatocytes, adipocytes, and stromal cells, circulating IL-11 coordinates systemic tissue decline by simultaneously driving pro-senescent anabolic signaling and suppressing cellular energy-sensing pathways. Mechanism: Circulating IL-11 binds the cell-surface IL-11Rα/gp130 receptor complex in target parenchymal and stromal cells to activate MEK/ERK1/2, which phosphorylates and inactivates LKB1 (at Ser428) to suppress AMPK while concurrently activating mTORC1–S6K1 and canonical JAK2/STAT3 signaling. This dual ERK–mTORC1 activation and AMPK inhibition halts autophagic and mitophagic flux, increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS), and transcriptionally upregulates p16INK4a, p21CIP1, and NF-κB-dependent senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) factors. Prediction: Systemic administration of neutralizing anti-IL-11 or anti-IL-11Rα antibodies, or adult-onset Il11ra1 deletion, in middle-aged mice will restore tissue AMPK activity, suppress mTORC1 and STAT3 hyperactivation, reduce multi-organ p16INK4a/p21CIP1 senescence burden, reverse age-related insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis, and extend median and maximum lifespan; conversely, chronic IL-11 infusion in young mice will induce widespread senescence that is blocked by pharmacological ERK1/2 or mTORC1 inhibition.

    ANGPTL8 directly interacts with AKT2 and activates the AKT–mTOR–S6K pathway, thereby driving cell-autonomous adipocyte senescence. Deleting Angptl8 in mice reduces adipose senescence, delays age-related functional decline, and extends lifespan, while genetic or pharmacological pathway inhibition abolishes ANGPTL8-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  2. Can a microbiota-derived factor directly cause the cellular dysfunction and progressive tissue remodeling characteristic of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and if so, through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A conserved pro-apoptotic peptide proteolytically cleaved from bacterial cell-wall transglycosylases (such as corisin derived from lung-resident Staphylococcus and related commensal bacteria) directly initiates progressive pulmonary fibrosis without requiring live infection. This microbiota-derived peptide acts on alveolar epithelial cells to simultaneously trigger apoptosis, cellular senescence, and epithelial-to-mesenchymal phenotypic transitions. Mechanism: Extracellular bacterial serine proteases cleave conserved regions of bacterial transglycosylases to release a bioactive peptide into the alveolar space. Upon internalization or receptor engagement on alveolar type II (AT2) epithelial cells, the peptide disrupts mitochondrial membrane potential and increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species, triggering intrinsic caspase-3-mediated apoptosis in a subset of cells while activating ATM/p53/p21 DNA damage signaling, senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) release, and TGF-beta1/SMAD- and Snail-mediated epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in surviving cells to drive myofibroblast accumulation and extracellular matrix deposition. Prediction: Intratracheal instillation of the purified synthetic bacterial peptide alone into uninjured mice will be sufficient to induce AT2 apoptosis, p21/SA-beta-gal-positive senescence, EMT marker expression, and progressive collagen deposition, whereas protease-resistant removal of peptidic factors or treatment with a peptide-neutralizing monoclonal antibody will completely abolish these cell-fate abnormalities and fibrotic remodeling.

    The microbiota-derived peptide corisin directly disrupts epithelial proteostasis by targeting and enhancing the ubiquitin-proteasome system, thereby inducing apoptosis, cellular senescence, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and fibrotic remodeling. Depleting native corisin from patient bronchoalveolar lavage fluid removes its proapoptotic activity, while constitutive corisin expression in mice causes spontaneous progressive pulmonary fibrosis and worsens bleomycin-induced injury and mortality.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  3. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated upregulation and chromatin pioneering of the transcription factor FLI1 in hematopoietic stem and megakaryocyte-erythroid progenitor cells (MEPs) directly activates platelet-lineage gene programs while competitively repressing KLF1-driven erythroid differentiation. This shift in the FLI1-to-KLF1 transcriptional balance causally redirects bipotent progenitors and stem cells toward megakaryocytopoiesis during ageing. Mechanism: During ageing, increased accessibility at ETS-family binding motifs allows FLI1 (in cooperation with RUNX1 and GATA2) to occupy and activate megakaryocytic enhancers (such as MPL, ITGA2B, and GP1BA) while physically sequestering GATA1 away from KLF1 and recruiting corepressors to erythroid-specific loci (such as EPOR and HBB), thereby blocking erythroid commitment and promoting direct megakaryocyte generation. Prediction: Single-cell ATAC/RNA-seq of aged HSCs and MEPs will show selective enrichment of open FLI1/ETS motifs prior to lineage commitment, and partial genetic knockdown or degron-mediated reduction of FLI1 in aged progenitors will restore KLF1 target gene expression and normalize the erythroid-to-platelet output ratio even in the presence of an aged inflammatory bone marrow niche.

    Pbx1 is a regulatory hub that drives age-related transcriptional and differentiation changes in hematopoietic stem cells. It suppresses erythroid differentiation by repressing Gata1 expression, thereby contributing to the lineage imbalance characteristic of HSC ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  4. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging impairs injury-induced retinal neuronal reprogramming by priming resident microglia toward a persistent pro-inflammatory state that locks Müller glia into reactive gliosis rather than neurogenesis. Chronic inflammatory signaling after injury in aged retinas actively antagonizes proneural transcription factor activity in Müller glia. Mechanism: In aged retinas, senescent and dystrophic microglia respond to injury with sustained secretion of TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-1beta, driving prolonged hyperactivation of JAK/STAT3 and NF-kappaB signaling within Müller glia. Phosphorylated STAT3 and RelA/p65 directly compete with proneural pioneer factors such as Ascl1 for transcriptional co-activators and promote expression of gliogenic and inhibitory factors (such as Id1/3, Socs3, and Gfap), blocking the transition from reactive glia to neurogenic progenitors. Prediction: Microglial depletion (e.g., via CSF1R inhibition) or Müller glia-specific inhibition of STAT3/NF-kappaB signaling in aged injured retinas will restore Ascl1-driven neurogenic reprogramming efficiency to youthful levels, even without directly altering the intrinsic epigenetic landscape of Müller glia prior to injury.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 4; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  5. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Experimentally increasing the somatic mtDNA mutation rate via proofreading-deficient DNA polymerase gamma (POLG) in a large mammal directly drives systemic premature ageing and shortens lifespan by exhausting adult stem and progenitor cell pools. This progeroid phenotype arises even without elevated mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS). Mechanism: Accumulation of random point mutations and linear deletions in mtDNA destabilizes respiratory chain complexes I and IV, triggering bioenergetic failure and intrinsic caspase-dependent apoptosis specifically within rapidly dividing somatic stem cell compartments (such as hematopoietic, intestinal, and neural progenitors), thereby impairing tissue regeneration. Prediction: Large mammals engineered with exonuclease-deficient POLG will exhibit early-onset alopecia, kyphosis, anemia, sarcopenia, and reduced lifespan accompanied by severe depletion of tissue-resident stem cells and respiratory chain complex instability, but without a corresponding increase in oxidative macromolecular damage (e.g., 8-oxodG or lipid peroxidation) or rescue by mitochondrial antioxidants.

    Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  6. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Genetic or pharmacological induction of intrinsic microRNA-205 (miR-205) expression in aged hair follicle stem cells (HFSCs) reactivates quiescent telogen follicles and restores anagen hair regeneration. This reactivation occurs by reversing age-associated cellular stiffening in the bulge and hair germ compartments. Mechanism: miR-205 directly binds and post-transcriptionally represses transcripts encoding RhoA-ROCK pathway activators and actomyosin regulators (including Arhgef11 and Plekhg5), reducing myosin light chain II phosphorylation (p-MLC2) and cortical F-actin polymerization, which lowers intracellular mechanical tension and permits cell-cycle re-entry. Prediction: Atomic force microscopy will show reduced cortical stiffness in aged HFSCs upon miR-205 induction prior to proliferation, and hair regeneration will be phenocopied by ROCK/myosin II inhibition (e.g., blebbistatin) or abolished by expressing miR-205-resistant Arhgef11 without altering upstream BMP or Wnt ligand levels.

    Increasing TPP1, either through stem-cell Acd overexpression or topical stabilization with the peptide TELODIN, accelerates hair regeneration in mice. TPP1 coordinates telomere capping and telomerase recruitment, activating bulge hair follicle stem cells and promoting their proliferation, differentiation, and migration as follicles transition synchronously from telogen to anagen.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 0; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  7. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Excess adipose tissue promotes osteoarthritis progression by secreting complement factor D (adipsin) into the circulation, which acts as the rate-limiting protease to activate the alternative complement cascade within synovial fluid and drive complement-mediated joint injury. Genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of circulating adipsin will protect against obesity-induced cartilage degeneration and synovitis. Mechanism: Adipocytes serve as the primary endocrine source of circulating adipsin (CFD), which diffuses into the joint space and cleaves factor B complexed with C3b to form the alternative pathway C3 convertase (C3bBb); subsequent cascade amplification generates C3a/C5a anaphylatoxins and deposits sublytic membrane attack complexes (C5b-9) on chondrocytes and synovial macrophages, activating C5aR1 and MAPK/ERK signaling to induce catabolic metalloproteinases and synovial inflammation. Prediction: Cfd-deficient mice or lipodystrophic mice fed an obesogenic diet will be protected from synovial C3b/C5b-9 deposition and osteoarthritis, and surgical transplantation of wild-type—but not Cfd-knockout—adipose tissue into fat-free mice will restore synovial alternative complement activation and susceptibility to joint degeneration.

    Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 0; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  8. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated loss of mitochondrial membrane integrity in granulosa cells and oocytes causes cytosolic leakage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), activating the cGAS-STING pathway to initiate sterile follicular inflammation. Intercellular transfer of 2'3'-cGAMP through connexin gap junctions and paracrine type I interferon/NF-kB cytokine secretion propagate this inflammatory state across the cumulus-oocyte complex and ovarian stroma, driving follicular atresia and endocrine decline. Mechanism: Age-related decline in TFAM stoichiometry and cristae remodeling promote VDAC1 oligomerization and BAX/BAK macropore formation on the outer mitochondrial membrane, releasing mtDNA fragments into the cytosol. Cytosolic mtDNA binds cGAS to synthesize 2'3'-cGAMP, which activates STING-TBK1-IRF3/NF-kB signaling within the stressed cell and diffuses through Connexin-43 and Connexin-37 gap junctions at transzonal projections into adjacent follicular cells, amplifying IL-6, TNF-alpha, CXCL10, and IFN-beta production throughout the follicle. Prediction: Oocyte- or granulosa-specific genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of STING (e.g., H-151) or gap-junctional cGAMP transfer in aged mice will abolish pan-follicular interferon-stimulated gene expression and preserve follicular reserve and estradiol production, even when mitochondrial bioenergetic dysfunction or NLRP3 inflammasome competence remains intact.

    Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; grok-4.7: 5

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  9. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In vivo correction of the HGPS-causing LMNA mutation rescues molecular and cellular osteoblast defects regardless of age, but complete restoration of bone microarchitecture and biomechanical strength requires early intervention before osteoprogenitor exhaustion and growth plate senescence occur. Late treatment achieves only partial structural rescue because recovery is rate-limited by slow adult bone remodeling turnover and a depleted mesenchymal progenitor pool. Mechanism: Eliminating progerin production and restoring wild-type lamin A/C repairs nuclear lamina architecture and relieves p53/p21-mediated cell-cycle arrest in surviving osteoprogenitors and osteoblasts. When correction occurs during early postnatal growth, abundant mesenchymal stem and progenitor cells rapidly populate modeling bone surfaces to normalize cortical thickness and trabecular volume; when initiated after skeletal maturity, irreversible senescence of chondro-osseous progenitors and low baseline remodeling rates restrict the replacement of pre-existing dysplastic bone matrix. Prediction: Both early and late genetic correction will normalize nuclear morphology and osteogenic gene expression in active osteoblasts within weeks, whereas micro-CT cortical bone volume and three-point bending fracture resistance will fully normalize only in the early-treated cohort, with late-treated animals showing a rescue trajectory proportional to bone formation rate and residual Sca-1+/PDGFRa+ progenitor frequency.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 4; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  10. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Cell-free regenerative therapy (such as stem cell-derived extracellular vesicles) alleviates UV-induced skin photoaging by activating PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy to clear damaged mitochondria. This targeted organelle clearance prevents the leakage of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) into the cytosol, thereby suppressing activation of the cGAS–STING innate immune pathway and downstream senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) inflammation. Mechanism: Bioactive cargo within the cell-free treatment stimulates PINK1 stabilization and Parkin recruitment to depolarized mitochondria in UV-irradiated keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts, promoting their autophagic degradation. By eliminating dysfunctional mitochondria before outer membrane permeabilization or mPTP opening can occur, the treatment prevents cytosolic accumulation of oxidized mtDNA, blocking cGAS recognition, 2'3'-cGAMP synthesis, STING/TBK1/IRF3/NF-κB phosphorylation, and the resulting sterile inflammatory and senescent state. Prediction: Genetic depletion of PINK1/Parkin or pharmacological inhibition of mitophagy in UV-exposed skin models will abolish the therapy's ability to reduce cytosolic mtDNA levels, STING phosphorylation, SASP cytokine secretion, and p16/p21 expression, whereas exogenous STING agonists (e.g., DMXAA or cGAMP) will override the protective effects despite intact mitochondrial clearance.

    Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell secretome protects against UV-induced photoaging by enhancing mitophagy, which clears damaged mitochondria and reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage. This suppresses cGAS-STING signaling and downstream inflammatory cytokines; mitophagy inhibition abolishes protection, while STING inhibition restores it.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 5; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  11. Can an unannotated protein product that is altered in Alzheimer's disease causally regulate cellular function relevant to disease pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Disease-associated dysregulation of an unannotated small open reading frame (sORF)-encoded microprotein localized to the inner mitochondrial membrane causally impairs oxidative phosphorylation and drives bioenergetic failure in Alzheimer's disease neurons independently of the canonical protein encoded at the same locus. Mechanism: Uncoupled translational regulation or transcript isoform switching in Alzheimer's disease alters the abundance of a mitochondrial-targeted microprotein encoded by an upstream or overlapping reading frame. This microprotein normally acts as an assembly or stabilizing factor for electron transport chain supercomplexes, and its perturbation in disease disrupts Complex I/IV activity, reduces ATP synthesis, and elevates mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mtROS). Prediction: Selective genetic restoration or ablation of the unannotated microprotein in neuronal models—while holding canonical host protein expression constant—directly modifies basal and maximal oxygen consumption rates, mitochondrial membrane potential, and mtROS levels, and affinity purification-mass spectrometry confirms its physical interaction with respiratory chain subunits.

    A small open reading frame at the MKKS locus encodes a 63-amino-acid microprotein that is the locus's predominant translation product and is downregulated in Alzheimer's disease. Experimental loss of this microprotein impairs mitochondrial respiration in microglia, supporting a causal role in microglial bioenergetics.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  12. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated hyperactivation of cardiac mTORC1 and upregulation of the Beclin-1 inhibitor Rubicon, combined with impaired TFEB nuclear translocation, block late-stage mitophagosome-lysosome fusion and lysosomal acidification in cardiomyocytes, stalling mitophagy flux mid-stream. Therapeutically restoring lysosomal biogenesis and autolysosomal fusion clears accumulated mitophagosomal intermediates, suppresses cytosolic mtDNA sensing, and reverses age-related diastolic and systolic dysfunction. Mechanism: In aged cardiomyocytes, chronic nutrient and stress signaling elevates mTORC1 activity and Rubicon expression, which inhibits the UVRAG-Vps34 complex and retains TFEB in the cytosol while diminishing v-ATPase-dependent lysosomal acidification. Because early mitochondrial damage continues to trigger priming and autophagosomal engulfment against a downstream bottleneck in Rab7/SNARE-mediated lysosomal fusion and proteolysis, un-degraded mitophagosomes accumulate, leak oxidized mtDNA into the cytosol, and activate cGAS-STING and NLRP3 inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Dual-fluorescent mitophagy reporter mice (such as mt-Keima or mito-QC) will show an increased ratio of neutral-pH mitophagosomes to acidic mitolysosomes in aged hearts rather than a lack of autophagosomal sequestration; furthermore, stimulating early mitophagy initiation alone will exacerbate cardiomyocyte toxicity, whereas Rubicon depletion or TFEB activation will restore acidic mitolysosome formation and rescue ventricular function.

    Age-associated upregulation of HIF-3α drives excessive BNIP3 expression in senescent cardiomyocytes, causing mitophagy flux congestion and cardiac aging. Mitochondrial transplantation restores intracellular ATP homeostasis, restrains pathological HIF-3α–BNIP3 signaling, normalizes mitophagy flux, and rejuvenates the aging heart.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  13. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in subcutaneous white adipose tissue (scWAT) thermogenesis is driven by the loss of adipocyte- and stromal-derived neurotrophic factors (such as NGF, BDNF, and S100B) alongside increased repulsive axon guidance cues (such as SEMA3A), causing structural retraction of sympathetic nerve arborizations. Without dense peri-adipocyte sympathetic innervation, environmental cold stimuli fail to deliver sufficient local norepinephrine to recruit beige adipocytes. Mechanism: Transcriptional and epigenetic remodelling of ageing adipocytes and PDGFRalpha+ stromal progenitors downregulates retrograde neurotrophic signals (NGF/TrkA and CLSTN3B-S100B axes) while upregulating semaphorin-neuropilin repulsive signalling, leading to axonal die-back of tyrosine hydroxylase-positive (TH+) sympathetic fibres and physical uncoupling of the neuro-adipose junction. Prediction: 3D whole-mount immunolabelling of aged scWAT will reveal a marked reduction in TH+ sympathetic nerve fibre density and branching prior to losing intrinsic adipocyte responsiveness to exogenous beta-3-adrenergic agonists (CL316,243), and viral restoration of NGF or S100B in aged scWAT will regenerate axonal arbors and restore cold-induced UCP1+ beige adipocyte formation.

    Microglial ALKBH5 suppresses Ntf5 expression by demethylating Ntf5 mRNA, thereby limiting activation of PVH TrkB-positive neurons, sympathetic innervation of subcutaneous white adipose tissue, and adipocyte browning. Microglia-specific ALKBH5 knockout preserved brown adipocytes and improved metabolic activity during ageing in male mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  14. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Direct allosteric activation of the conserved energy sensor AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is sufficient to extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse invertebrates and induce caloric-restriction-like metabolic rejuvenation in mammals without requiring mitochondrial electron transport chain inhibition. Engaging AMPK directly via its allosteric binding pocket bypasses the pleiotropic off-target effects of indirect metabolic poisons to drive conserved pro-longevity programs. Mechanism: Selective small-molecule binding to the AMPK heterotrimeric complex (such as at the allosteric drug and metabolite [ADaM] site between the alpha-kinase domain and beta-carbohydrate-binding module) stabilizes the active enzyme conformation and prevents dephosphorylation of Thr172. Activated AMPK directly phosphorylates conserved downstream substrates—including ULK1 to initiate autophagy, ACC1/2 to promote fatty acid beta-oxidation, Raptor/TSC2 to restrain mTORC1 signaling, and FOXO/PGC-1alpha to enhance mitochondrial quality control and oxidative stress resistance. Prediction: Administration of a selective direct AMPK activator extends median and maximum lifespan in wild-type C. elegans and Drosophila and improves insulin sensitivity, autophagic flux, and transcriptomic age biomarkers in aged mice without altering cellular ATP/AMP ratios or complex I respiration, whereas genetic ablation of the catalytic AMPK alpha-subunit (aak-2 in worms, AMPKalpha in flies and mice) or point mutation of the allosteric drug-binding pocket completely abolishes both lifespan extension and mammalian metabolic benefits.

    Direct pharmacological activation of AMPK with compound 991 extends lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Schizosaccharomyces pombe. In mice, 991 induces a proteomic profile associated with pro-longevity biology, supporting the translational potential of AMPK activation.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 5; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  15. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Chronic age-associated stress and metabolic signaling induce persistent chromatin engagement of pioneer and inducible transcription factors—principally AP-1 (FOS/JUN) and NF-κB—which actively redistribute SWI/SNF (BAF) chromatin remodelers and cohesin complexes to form de novo enhancer-promoter loops at inflammatory and activation-related loci. This factor-driven recruitment sequesters architectural loop-extrusion machinery away from homeostatic lineage-identity super-enhancers, simultaneously promoting basal activation programs and impairing specialized immune function. Mechanism: Persistent low-grade signaling stabilizes AP-1 complexes at latent distal enhancers, where they recruit BAF remodelers to open chromatin and anchor cohesin-Mediator complexes, establishing de novo long-range chromatin loops with cytokine and activation promoters at the expense of homeostatic cell-identity loops. Prediction: Acute genetic or pharmacological inhibition of AP-1 DNA binding or BAF ATPase activity in aged cells will selectively collapse age-acquired enhancer-promoter loops at inflammatory loci in H3K27ac/cohesin HiChIP assays, redistribute cohesin back to homeostatic identity loci, and reverse the basal activation transcriptional signature.

    Age-associated reduction of SATB1 in naive CD4+ T cells weakens TAD boundaries and expands the range of CTCF-mediated interactions without changing CTCF occupancy, producing enhancer-promoter rewiring and increased expression of proinflammatory and proactivation genes. Conditional SATB1 deletion recapitulates these ageing-associated architectural and transcriptional changes, establishing SATB1 deficiency as a causal contributor.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 1; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  16. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin expression in medial vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) and intimal endothelial cells (ECs) drives distinct pathological features in a strictly cell-autonomous, compartment-specific manner: mutant VSMCs directly generate extracellular-matrix (ECM) abnormalities and collagen accumulation, whereas mutant ECs independently drive vascular inflammation. Neither compartment requires the LMNA mutation in the neighbouring layer to manifest its signature pathology. Mechanism: In the tunica media, progerin-induced nuclear lamina stiffening disrupts LINC-complex mechanotransduction under cyclic stretch, shifting VSMCs from a contractile to a synthetic, profibrotic phenotype with elevated collagen and matrix metalloproteinase production. Concurrently, in the tunica intima, progerin impairs endothelial adaptation to laminar shear stress, directly activating NF-kappaB transcriptional programs and surface adhesion molecules (ICAM-1, VCAM-1) without altering mural matrix synthesis. Prediction: In heterotypic three-dimensional blood-vessel models or lineage-specific mosaic mice, vessels composed of HGPS VSMCs and wild-type ECs will exhibit medial ECM disorganization and collagen accumulation without endothelial inflammatory activation, whereas vessels with HGPS ECs and wild-type VSMCs will display robust intimal inflammation and leukocyte adhesion without medial fibrosis.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  17. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Sustained activity of the protein arginine methyltransferase PRMT5 enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition by maintaining spliceosomal fidelity required for productive splicing of MDM4 and the histone methyltransferase EZH2. Pharmacological inhibition of PRMT5 or antisense oligonucleotide-mediated skipping of MDM4 exon 6 disrupts this axis, restoring p53 activation, H3K27me3 loss at senescence loci, and durable therapy-induced senescence. Mechanism: In drug-sensitive cells, CDK4/6 inhibition suppresses E2F-dependent expression of PRMT5 cofactors (such as WDR77/MEP50), reducing symmetric dimethylation of spliceosomal Sm proteins (SmD1/SmD3). This hypomethylation impairs recognition of weak 5' splice sites, causing exon 6 skipping in MDM4 (generating unstable MDM4-S subject to nonsense-mediated decay) and intron retention in EZH2, which together unleash p53-p21 signaling and derepress H3K27me3-silenced senescence genes. Resistant cells maintain high PRMT5-WDR77 activity independently of CDK4/6, preserving full-length MDM4 to degrade p53 and full-length EZH2 to epigenetically silence CDKN2A and SASP enhancers; blocking PRMT5 or directly forcing MDM4 exon 6 skipping re-establishes both p53 transcriptional activity and chromatin derepression required for irreversible arrest. Prediction: In CDK4/6 inhibitor-resistant cells with wild-type TP53, RNA-seq and anti-sDMA immunoprecipitation will reveal preserved Sm protein symmetric dimethylation alongside full-length MDM4 (exon 6 inclusion) and EZH2 transcripts, and combining palbociclib with a PRMT5 inhibitor or an MDM4 exon 6 splice-switching oligonucleotide—unlike inhibiting downstream CDK2 alone—will selectively restore SA-beta-gal activity and p21/SASP induction without requiring exogenous DNA damage.

    Increased inclusion of exon 2 drives SUV39H2 overexpression and CDK4/6 inhibitor resistance. Suppressing SUV39H2 expression or methyltransferase activity removes H3K9me3 from enhancer regions, opens associated promoters, activates p21 and other senescence-associated genes, and restores therapy-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  18. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Dietary supplementation with the polyamine spermidine preserves lysosomal proteolytic activity and maintains protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and organismal function, by sustaining the eIF5A-dependent translation of the master lysosomal transcription factor TFEB (HLH-30). Mechanism: Spermidine serves as the sole aminobutyl donor for the enzymatic hypusination of eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5A (eIF5A) via deoxyhypusine synthase (DHPS) and deoxyhypusine hydroxylase (DOHH). Hypusinated eIF5A resolves ribosome stalling at polyproline motifs within TFEB/HLH-30 mRNA, preventing age-related translational decline of TFEB and maintaining transcription of the Coordinated Lysosomal Expression and Regulation (CLEAR) network, including V-ATPase subunits and cathepsin hydrolases. Prediction: Spermidine treatment in aged organisms will restore nuclear TFEB/HLH-30 levels, lysosomal cathepsin activity, and clearance of insoluble ubiquitinated protein aggregates to extend lifespan, whereas pharmacological inhibition of DHPS (via GC7) or mutation of the eIF5A hypusination site (K50A) will completely abolish these benefits even when mTORC1 is pharmacologically inhibited to force nuclear translocation of existing TFEB.

    20(S)-ginsenoside Rg3 extended lifespan and preserved physiological and neuronal function in Caenorhabditis elegans by restoring lysosomal activity and autophagic flux. Rg3 remodeled neuronal lysosomal phosphoinositide signatures toward increased PI(4)P and reduced PI(3)P, suppressed RSKS-1/S6K–TORC1 signaling, and promoted nuclear HLH-30/TFEB activity, thereby improving proteostasis and resistance to polyglutamine- and α-synuclein-associated toxicity.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  19. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mild thermal or proteotoxic stress extends lifespan and prevents age-related protein aggregation by co-activating heat shock factor 1 (HSF-1) and the transcription factor TFEB/HLH-30 to transcriptionally upregulate the macroautophagy-lysosome machinery. Rather than relying solely on molecular chaperones to refold proteins, this hormetic response causally requires autophagic clearance of misfolded and aggregation-prone proteins to maintain organismal proteostasis. Mechanism: Transient sub-lethal stress triggers HSF-1 trimerization and nuclear translocation alongside calcineurin- and mTORC1-regulated nuclear entry of TFEB (HLH-30 in C. elegans). Together, HSF-1 and TFEB/HLH-30 drive coordinated transcription of core autophagy-related genes (such as ATG8/LC3/lgg-1, ULK1/unc-51, and SQSTM1/p62/sqst-1) and lysosomal hydrolases, increasing autophagic flux to encapsulate and degrade ubiquitinated protein oligomers before they form insoluble toxic aggregates. Prediction: Genetic ablation or RNAi knockdown of TFEB/HLH-30 or core autophagy execution genes (such as ATG5, ATG7, or BECN1/bec-1) specifically after mild stress exposure will abolish both the clearance of polyglutamine or amyloid aggregates and the lifespan extension, even when HSF-1-dependent chaperone induction (HSP70/HSP90) and 26S proteasome activity remain intact.

    In Caenorhabditis elegans, inhibition of mitochondrial respiration activates an intestinal ELT-2-dependent transcriptional program that increases lysosomal proteolysis during ageing, largely independently of the mitochondrial unfolded protein response. Direct promoter binding by ELT-2, requiring residue R249, and the lysosomal proteases CPR-5 and CPR-8 are necessary for toxic polyglutamine aggregate clearance and mitochondrial stress-induced lifespan extension.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; claude-opus-5-5: 2; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

Scope of this held-out result

The rule was chosen from the Grok-generated results, and the forecasts for the Gemini-generated hypotheses were requested after the rule had been recorded in the frozen protocol. This section therefore tests the rule on new forecasts. A prospective validation on new experimental outcomes remains a separate study: the hypotheses and the judges’ article-correspondence scores are historical. The observed 9/19 = 47.4% yield describes this selection on this corpus. On the Grok-generated hypotheses the same path gave 14/19 = 73.7%. Both cohorts are built on the same 50 original questions, so the two results are dependent at the task level. Gemini forecasts its own generated hypotheses. GPT-6 Astra shares a company with historical judge GPT-5.6 Sol. Sonnet shares a company with historical judge Opus, and Grok 4.5 shares a company with historical judge Grok 4.7; these developer relationships should be considered when interpreting forecasts and reference labels.

Protocol and results for reuse

Two-stage selection tested on 250 original Opus hypotheses

For each of 50 original tasks, Opus 5.5 received background information and a research question and proposed five hypotheses. This section applies fixed two-stage selection to those hypotheses, with new forecasts requested for this purpose. The rule was recorded in the protocol before any of these forecasts existed. First, GPT-6 Astra forecasts the outcome of all 250 hypotheses; only those with its yes forecast proceed. Second, a hypothesis is retained only when all four models forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5. Astra’s first-stage forecast is reused as its vote.

Article correspondence means that at least two of three reference judge models assigned a score of 3 or higher. This analysis uses their previously recorded scores; no new laboratory experiments were performed on the generated hypotheses.

The final selection contains 22 hypotheses. Of these, 14 correspond to the article and 8 fall below the article-correspondence threshold. The proportion corresponding to the article among selected hypotheses is 14/22 = 63.6%. This is the positive predictive value of the final forecast.

  1. 1. All 250 hypotheses250 hypotheses: 45 correspond to the article, 205 fall below the threshold.
  2. 2. Screening by GPT-6 Astra49 receive a yes: 21 correspond to the article, 28 fall below the threshold. Astra rejects 201 hypotheses, including 24 that correspond to the article.
  3. 3. All four models forecast yesSonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.522 remain: 14 correspond to the article and 8 fall below the threshold. This stage removes another 27 hypotheses, including 7 that correspond to the article.

The path retains 14 of the 45 hypotheses that correspond to the article: sensitivity = 14/45 = 31.1%. It misses 31 such hypotheses: 24 at stage one and another 7 at stage two. The yield among the selected hypotheses and the proportion recovered from all article matches have different denominators.

Four metrics of the final forecast on all 250 hypotheses

The comparison uses the original saved coin tosses for the identical 250 hypotheses. The coin forecasts yes for 119 hypotheses, of which 20 correspond to the article. Each metric below gives its own numerator and denominator for the selection path and for the coin.

The cohort contains 250 hypotheses. The selection retains 22: 14 correspond to the article and 8 fall below its correspondence threshold. The selection excludes 228: 197 fall below the threshold and 31 correspond to the article.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 22 hypotheses. Of these, 14 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.63.6%14 / 22Coin: 16.8% (20 / 119)Difference from the coin: +46.8 percentage points95% interval 42.9% to 81.8%95% interval for the difference: +27.8 to +66.1 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 228 hypotheses. Of these, 197 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.86.4%197 / 228Coin: 80.9% (106 / 131)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points95% interval 81.6% to 90.8%95% interval for the difference: +1 to +10 percentage points
Sensitivity of the final forecastThe input cohort contains 45 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 14 of these.31.1%14 / 45Coin: 44.4% (20 / 45)Difference from the coin: -13.3 percentage points95% interval 18.2% to 44.2%95% interval for the difference: -30 to +4.9 percentage points
Specificity of the final forecastThe input cohort contains 205 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 197 of these.96.1%197 / 205Coin: 51.7% (106 / 205)Difference from the coin: +44.4 percentage points95% interval 93.5% to 98.5%95% interval for the difference: +37.1 to +51.4 percentage points

Pointwise descriptive 95% intervals use 2,000 paired resamples of complete original questions. This preserves dependence among the five hypotheses of a question. No multiplicity adjustment is applied. The rule was fixed before this cohort’s new forecasts; the original questions and judges’ scores come from the earlier experiment.

Forecasts required by this path

Astra supplies 250 model/hypothesis forecasts at stage one. Each of the 49 retained hypotheses needs three further model forecasts, giving 147 additional forecasts and 397 in total. Applying all four models to all 250 hypotheses would require 1000. One unit is one model’s forecast for one hypothesis. In the actual run every model received 50 original questions with five hypotheses each. The two-stage decision is reconstructed by identity; these unit counts describe the selection path. Actual logical response attempts, underlying transport attempts and tokens are retained in the downloadable forecast reports.

The cohort is fixed before applying the rule: 250 hypotheses from 50 original tasks with usable forecasts from all four models. All 250 hypotheses have usable forecasts from every model. The reference judges for Opus-generated hypotheses are the three reference judge models from other companies used in the earlier evaluation: GPT-5.6 Sol, Gemini 4 Argon Medium and Grok 4.7. This section uses unambiguous forecasts extracted from the saved responses and the score-3 article-correspondence endpoint throughout.

Inspect all 22 selected hypotheses

Each entry provides the article-correspondence outcome, the full original hypothesis, the article’s reference finding, the original judges’ scores and links to the task and article. All four recorded forecasts are yes for every listed hypothesis.

  1. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aged osteocytes lose mechanosensitivity because the stretch-activated cation channel PIEZO1 is downregulated in cortical bone, so load-induced calcium influx and downstream Wnt1/Wnt10b output collapse; pharmacological agonism of PIEZO1 (e.g. Yoda1) restores the anabolic response without mechanical loading. Mechanism: Reduced PIEZO1 expression/membrane availability in aged osteocytes lowers load-evoked Ca2+ transients, blunting NFAT/YAP-dependent induction of Wnt ligands and suppression of sclerostin, which shifts the formation/resorption balance toward resorption. Direct chemical gating of the residual channel pool bypasses the sensing deficit. Prediction: In aged mice, Yoda1 (or equivalent PIEZO1 agonist) increases cortical thickness and periosteal mineral apposition to a degree comparable with loading in young animals, and this effect is abolished in osteocyte-specific Piezo1 knockouts, whereas overcoming the deficit by increasing strain magnitude alone does not normalize Wnt1/Wnt10b induction.

    In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  2. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Adipose tissue is a major source of a circulating complement-pathway protease that reaches synovial fluid and locally activates the alternative complement cascade on chondrocyte surfaces and damaged matrix, driving cartilage catabolism. Genetic or pharmacological interruption of this adipose-to-joint complement axis should reduce cartilage loss and synovitis in diet-induced obesity without requiring weight loss. Mechanism: Hypertrophic adipocytes secrete a rate-limiting complement activator; it enters the joint, amplifies C3/C5 convertase assembly on cartilage debris, generates C5a and the membrane attack complex sublytically on chondrocytes, which induces MMP-13/ADAMTS-5 and recruits C5aR1+ synovial macrophages. Prediction: Adipocyte-specific deletion of the secreted activator (or C5aR1 blockade) in obese mice reduces OARSI cartilage score and synovitis while body mass, fat mass and joint loading stay unchanged; parabiosis or serum transfer from obese wild-type mice restores pathology in the knockout, and the protection is lost in complement-deficient recipients.

    Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 1; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  3. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated loss of mitochondrial DNA integrity in oocytes and granulosa cells causes release of mtDNA into the cytosol, which activates the cGAS–STING pathway and initiates type I interferon and NF-κB–driven inflammatory signaling within the follicle. This cell-intrinsic innate-immune activation, rather than infiltrating immune cells, is the initiating event of ovarian functional decline. Mechanism: Oxidative damage and reduced mitophagy in aged follicles permit mtDNA escape through BAX/BAK macropores and VDAC oligomers into the cytosol. Cytosolic mtDNA binds cGAS, generating cGAMP that activates STING, driving TBK1/IRF3 interferon output and NF-κB induction of IL-6, IL-1β and CXCL10. The resulting local inflammatory milieu impairs granulosa steroidogenesis and accelerates follicular atresia. Prediction: Oocyte- or granulosa-specific deletion of Cgas or Sting1, or pharmacological STING inhibition (H-151), in aged or mitochondrially stressed mice preserves follicle reserve, estradiol/AMH levels and fertility while leaving mtDNA copy number and oxidative damage unchanged — i.e. the mitochondrial lesion persists but the functional decline is prevented. Conversely, ovarian expression of a mitochondrial nuclease-resistant mtDNA-releasing mutant (e.g. TFAM haploinsufficiency) reproduces the decline, and it is rescued by STING loss.

    Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  4. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Mutation correction before the onset of radiographically detectable skeletal disease will prevent bone pathology almost completely, whereas the identical intervention delivered after structural deficits are established will halt progression and partially rebuild bone but will not fully normalize geometry or strength. Efficacy will therefore show a threshold dependence on treatment age rather than a smooth linear decline. Mechanism: Early correction acts on a still-intact progenitor pool and an unremodeled matrix, so normal modeling can proceed. Once progerin has driven progenitor exhaustion/senescence and produced irreversibly altered cortical geometry and hypermineralized or collagen-cross-link-abnormal matrix, correction restores cell function but remodeling cannot re-sculpt macroscopic shape (e.g., clavicular and rib thinning, acro-osteolysis-like resorption) within the animal's lifespan. Prediction: Matched cohorts treated at a pre-symptomatic versus an established-disease age will show equal normalization of molecular markers (progerin levels, osteogenic gene expression) but divergent structural outcomes: near-complete rescue early, and in the late group restoration of dynamic bone formation rate with only partial recovery of cortical area and failure load.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  5. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In ulcerative colitis, metabolic stress in mucosal T cells causes mitochondrial DNA to leak into the cytosol, activating the cGAS–STING pathway and driving these cells into a senescent, SASP-secreting state that worsens colitis. Blocking mtDNA release or STING signaling should prevent senescence and attenuate disease. Mechanism: Inflamed mucosal metabolic conditions damage mitochondria in lamina propria T cells; mitochondrial permeability transition/VDAC- or BAX/BAK-dependent pore formation releases mtDNA into the cytosol; cGAS detects it, STING–TBK1–IRF3/NF-κB signaling plus p53/p21 engagement enforces a stable cell-cycle arrest with a pro-inflammatory secretome (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF, chemokines) that recruits and activates neutrophils and macrophages, sustaining epithelial injury. Prediction: In colitis models, T-cell-specific deletion of Cgas or Sting1 (or mtDNA depletion/TFAM-dependent packaging rescue, or inhibition of the mPTP/VDAC oligomerization) reduces p16/p21-positive senescent mucosal T cells and SASP cytokines and lessens histological colitis, whereas deleting the same genes in epithelium or myeloid cells does not reproduce the senescence rescue; cytosolic mtDNA is measurable in sorted UC patient mucosal T cells and correlates with their senescence score.

    NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4; grok-4.7: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  6. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Senescent immune cells cause resistance to anti-inflammatory therapy in UC: their SASP maintains an inflammatory circuit that is not dependent on the single cytokine being blocked. Adding senescence-targeting treatment restores responsiveness. Mechanism: The SASP is multi-cytokine and self-reinforcing (IL-6/STAT3, IL-1β, TNF, chemokine-driven neutrophil recruitment, and local paracrine spread of senescence to neighboring immune and stromal cells). Blocking one node (TNF, IL-12/23, JAK partially) leaves the rest of the circuit intact, so inflammation persists; removing the senescent source collapses the whole circuit. Prediction: Pre-treatment mucosal senescence burden (p16/p21-high immune cells, SASP transcriptional signature) is higher in future non-responders to anti-TNF and stratifies response better than baseline CRP/histology; in a colitis model refractory to anti-TNF, combining anti-TNF with senolytics or a STING inhibitor restores remission whereas either alone does not.

    NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  7. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Senescent immune cells are not bystanders but causal drivers of UC severity: their selective removal is sufficient to improve colitis. Senolytic clearance or genetic ablation of p16-high immune cells will reduce inflammation independently of any effect on epithelial cells. Mechanism: A small population of senescent mucosal lymphocytes/myeloid cells acts as a persistent inflammatory hub; because senescent cells are apoptosis-resistant (BCL-2/BCL-xL, PI3K–AKT survival dependence), they accumulate and continuously emit SASP factors that amplify local immune activation and block epithelial regeneration. Eliminating them removes the amplifier. Prediction: In INK-ATTAC/p16-3MR mice (or with dasatinib+quercetin/navitoclax), induced clearance of p16-positive cells after colitis onset lowers colonic SASP cytokines, restores crypt regeneration and reduces disease activity; adoptive transfer of in vitro-senesced T cells into recipients worsens colitis in a dose-dependent manner, while transfer of equal numbers of non-senescent cells does not.

    NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  8. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Topical or intradermal application of a cell-free regenerative preparation (mesenchymal stromal cell-derived small extracellular vesicles / conditioned-medium secretome) alleviates UV-induced photoaging primarily by restoring mitophagy in keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts. Restored PINK1/Parkin-dependent clearance of UV-damaged mitochondria prevents accumulation of depolarized organelles, thereby blocking senescence and sterile inflammation. Mechanism: UV irradiation depolarizes mitochondria and simultaneously blunts autophagic flux, so damaged mitochondria persist. The cell-free preparation delivers/induces PINK1 stabilization and Parkin recruitment, increasing LC3-II-tagged mitophagosome formation and lysosomal delivery; removal of dysfunctional mitochondria lowers mitochondrial ROS, preserves ATP, prevents p16/p21-driven senescence and reduces NF-kB-driven cytokine output, with secondary recovery of collagen I via reduced MMP-1/MMP-3. Prediction: Protection is abolished when mitophagy is blocked — in PINK1- or Parkin-silenced cells, or with Mdivi-1/bafilomycin or mito-QC/mt-Keima reporters showing no flux increase — while generic antioxidant capacity of the preparation is unchanged; conversely mitophagy inducers (urolithin A) reproduce the benefit. Alternatives predicting barrier-first or purely paracrine-growth-factor action would retain protection in PINK1-null skin.

    Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell secretome protects against UV-induced photoaging by enhancing mitophagy, which clears damaged mitochondria and reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage. This suppresses cGAS-STING signaling and downstream inflammatory cytokines; mitophagy inhibition abolishes protection, while STING inhibition restores it.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  9. Does the transmembrane protein investigated in this study causally regulate cellular senescence and age-related tissue pathology, and through what signaling mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    The transmembrane protein acts as a cell-autonomous driver of senescence: its expression rises in aged and stressed tissue, and raising it is sufficient to push proliferating cells into a stable senescent arrest, while deleting it blocks senescence entry and reduces age-related tissue pathology. Mechanism: Stress-induced upregulation of the protein at the plasma membrane raises its local surface density, enabling ligand-independent clustering and constitutive assembly of an intracellular adaptor complex. The signal converges on NF-kB/p38 to sustain the SASP while p53-p21 and p16-Rb enforce the arrest, creating a feed-forward loop in which SASP cytokines further induce the protein. Prediction: Overexpression in young primary cells with intact p53 produces SA-beta-gal positivity, p21/p16 induction and SASP secretion without added stress, and conditional knockout in an aged or progeroid mouse lowers p16 burden and improves tissue histology and function; a signaling-dead point mutant that still reaches the membrane fails to do either, excluding mere protein-burden or ER-stress effects.

    PTCHD4 promotes cellular senescence and age-associated tissue dysfunction by enhancing AKT signaling. PTCHD4 deficiency suppressed senescence, alleviated ageing-related phenotypes and bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice, and its anti-senescent effect was reversed by restoring AKT signaling.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  10. Can an unannotated protein product that is altered in Alzheimer's disease causally regulate cellular function relevant to disease pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A microprotein translated from a small ORF within a lncRNA or 5' uORF is depleted in Alzheimer's disease neurons, and this loss causally impairs mitochondrial respiration independently of any annotated protein at the same locus. Mechanism: The microprotein localizes to the inner mitochondrial membrane and stabilizes assembly of respiratory complex I/IV or ATP synthase dimers. Depletion lowers ATP output and raises mitochondrial ROS, which degrades synaptic maintenance in high-demand neurons. Prediction: CRISPR knockout of only the sORF start codon (leaving the host transcript and any overlapping annotated ORF intact) reduces oxygen consumption rate and complex activity in neurons, and re-expression of the microprotein cDNA from a separate locus rescues it; knockdown of the host lncRNA by itself does not reproduce the defect.

    A small open reading frame at the MKKS locus encodes a 63-amino-acid microprotein that is the locus's predominant translation product and is downregulated in Alzheimer's disease. Experimental loss of this microprotein impairs mitochondrial respiration in microglia, supporting a causal role in microglial bioenergetics.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  11. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin-induced heterochromatin decompaction and nuclear-envelope rupture release genomic and mitochondrial DNA fragments into the cytosol, where cGAS–STING sensing produces the type-I-interferon arm of the SASP; STING loss or inhibition should uncouple nuclear damage from inflammation and improve HGPS phenotypes. Mechanism: Loss of lamin B1/heterochromatin tethering → micronuclei, cytoplasmic chromatin fragments and de-repressed LINE-1 retroelement cDNA → cGAS activation → STING–TBK1–IRF3 → IFN-β and NF-κB SASP → paracrine senescence in vasculature and adipose tissue. Prediction: Cytosolic dsDNA and ISG signatures (Ifit1, Isg15) are elevated in HGPS fibroblasts and G609G aorta and precede p16 induction; Sting1-null G609G mice or STING/TBK1 inhibitor treatment reduce SASP and vascular smooth-muscle loss and extend lifespan, while cGAS-independent DNA-damage signalling (ATM) remains unchanged — separating sensing from damage itself.

    HMGA1 recruits the deubiquitinase USP7 to stabilize HP1β, which reduces chromatin accessibility at ANGPTL2 and suppresses senescence-associated secretory factors, thereby alleviating HGPS cellular senescence. An HMGA1-derived peptide, UHP, prevents HP1β degradation, reduces senescence, and significantly extends the lifespan of LmnaG609G/G609G mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  12. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Transplantation of faecal microbiota from aged human donors into germ-free or antibiotic-depleted young mice is sufficient to cause reduced small-intestinal villus height and surface area, increased paracellular permeability, and a pro-inflammatory mucosal transcriptional programme, whereas microbiota from young donors does not. The effect is donor-age-driven rather than recipient-age-driven, establishing the aged community as an active cause rather than a consequence of host ageing. Mechanism: Age-associated communities are depleted of saccharolytic, butyrate-producing Firmicutes (Faecalibacterium, Roseburia, Eubacterium rectale) and enriched in Proteobacteria/Enterobacteriaceae and pathobionts. Loss of luminal butyrate removes the dominant colonocyte energy substrate and HDAC-inhibitory/HIF-1α-stabilising signal that maintains tight-junction (claudin-1, occludin, ZO-1) expression and epithelial oxygen consumption; the resulting epithelial oxygenation further expands facultative anaerobes, creating a feed-forward loop that degrades barrier integrity and drives NF-κB-dependent mucosal gene expression. Prediction: Recipients of aged-donor microbiota show lower caecal/portal butyrate, reduced claudin/occludin protein, elevated serum FITC-dextran or LPS-binding protein, and villus atrophy; oral tributyrin or butyrate supplementation (or co-colonisation with a butyrogenic consortium) in aged-donor recipients restores villus morphology, tight-junction expression and permeability to young-donor levels without changing overall community membership, while butyrate-receptor-deficient (Ffar2/Ffar3 or Hdac3^ΔIEC) recipients are refractory to that rescue.

    Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  13. Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    A commensal bacterium nominated by multi-omic human ageing profiles (e.g. a Lactobacillus/Lactiplantibacillus- or Akkermansia-class strain whose relative abundance is high in biologically young individuals after adjusting for chronological age) causally extends median and maximum lifespan when colonised in gnotobiotic or conventional mice, and the effect requires live, metabolically active cells. Heat-killed or irradiated preparations of the same strain at matched dose produce no lifespan gain. Mechanism: Viable colonisation sustains continuous production of a secreted small-molecule or peptide effector in the gut lumen that signals to host enterocytes and the enteric immune compartment; killed cells deliver cell-wall ligands but no renewable effector flux, so downstream host signalling is not maintained. Prediction: Live-strain cohorts show a significant (>8%) median lifespan increase versus vehicle, while heat-killed cohorts overlap vehicle survival curves; the lifespan effect scales with faecal colonisation density/CFU and disappears in animals that fail to engraft.

    Neisseria flavescens was identified as a candidate geroprotective commensal and experimentally shown to extend lifespan and healthspan in Caenorhabditis elegans when administered live. In aged mice, heat-killed N. flavescens shifted the serum metabolome, liver transcriptome and gut microbiome toward younger states, while isolated strains were confirmed to produce predicted beneficial metabolites.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 0; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  14. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces gut microbial production of short-chain fatty acids (notably butyrate), and this loss causally impairs antiviral defense in the lung during influenza infection. Restoring butyrate signalling in the host — pharmacologically or by transferring a young/SCFA-producing microbiota — rescues antiviral protection in aged animals. Mechanism: Diminished abundance of fibre-fermenting commensals lowers luminal and systemic butyrate. Butyrate acts on haematopoietic precursors and lung-resident myeloid cells via GPR41/43 and HDAC inhibition, tuning the differentiation of monocytes into patrolling/antiviral phenotypes and limiting damaging neutrophil influx. Without it, aged mice generate excessive tissue-damaging inflammation with weaker type I/III interferon-dependent viral control, raising viral load and mortality. Prediction: Faecal transfer from young to aged mice, or oral butyrate/tributyrin supplementation starting before challenge, lowers lung viral titre and mortality in aged mice; the rescue is abolished in Ffar2/Ffar3-deficient hosts or by myeloid-specific blockade, and germ-free mice colonised with aged microbiota are protected by butyrate but not by fibre alone.

    Age-associated gut microbiota dysbiosis reduces microbial acetate-production capacity during influenza infection, while acetate supplementation suppresses viral replication and inflammation in senescent human lung fibroblasts. This protection is associated with FFAR2/FFAR3 signaling and increased histone H3 acetylation, supporting acetate as a mechanistic mediator of the ageing gut–lung axis.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  15. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Smooth muscle cells are the primary driver of progeroid vascular degeneration, and progerin expression restricted to the smooth muscle layer is sufficient to reproduce medial cell loss, wall thinning and adverse remodelling even when endothelium, fibroblasts and immune cells carry no mutation. Conversely, sparing smooth muscle cells from progerin largely protects the vessel from this degenerative component. Mechanism: Progerin accumulates in the stiff, mechanically loaded medial smooth muscle compartment, where repeated contractile cycling and nuclear strain amplify lamina damage, DNA-damage signalling and mechanosensitive apoptosis; the resulting cell-autonomous attrition cannot be compensated because medial smooth muscle cells have very low replicative reserve. Prediction: In cell-type-restricted progerin models (or three-layer engineered vessels assembled from mutant versus isogenic corrected cells), smooth-muscle-only progerin yields the full medial depletion/wall-thinning phenotype, whereas endothelium-only or fibroblast-only progerin yields near-normal medial cellularity; mechanical unloading or reduced contractile cycling attenuates loss in the smooth-muscle-mutant condition.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  16. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Time-restricted feeding protects arteries by suppressing NLRP3-inflammasome-driven gasdermin-D pore formation and pyroptosis in endothelial and perivascular myeloid cells; inflammasome activation is the necessary mediator of the accelerated vascular ageing that TRF prevents. Mechanism: The prolonged daily fast lowers postprandial glycemic excursions, lipotoxic DAMPs and mtROS, raises β-hydroxybutyrate (a direct NLRP3 inhibitor) and induces mitophagy, so ASC-speck assembly, caspase-1 activation and IL-1β/IL-18 release fall; less gasdermin-D pore formation preserves endothelial junction integrity, NO bioavailability and prevents the IL-1β→smooth-muscle osteogenic/fibrotic program that stiffens the wall. Prediction: TRF's protection of endothelium-dependent relaxation, pulse-wave velocity and cardiac remodeling is abolished (no further benefit) in Nlrp3−/−, Casp1−/− or Gsdmd−/− animals — i.e. TRF and inflammasome deletion are epistatic, not additive — and conversely constitutively active NLRP3 (Nlrp3^D301N) blocks TRF benefit despite unchanged feeding rhythm; vascular ASC specks and plasma IL-18 fall before any change in blood pressure.

    Time-restricted feeding enriches acetate-producing Limosilactobacillus, and microbiota-derived acetate is necessary and sufficient for its protection against angiotensin II-induced cardiovascular ageing. Acetate activates GPR43, inhibits HDAC3, increases H4K8 acetylation, and suppresses NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis and cellular senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  17. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition is enabled by an aberrant splice isoform of a chromatin-modifying enzyme that loses its regulatory domain while retaining catalytic activity, and this isoform silences the senescence transcriptional program. Forcing expression of the full-length isoform, or blocking production of the truncated one, restores palbociclib-induced senescence. Mechanism: A splicing factor whose expression rises under prolonged CDK4/6 inhibition promotes use of an alternative exon/termination site in a histone methyltransferase or demethylase transcript. The resulting protein is mistargeted to CDKN1A/CDKN2A and SASP loci, where it deposits repressive marks that prevent the stable heterochromatin-plus-p21 state needed for arrest. Cells therefore resume cycling despite sustained RB-pathway inhibition. Prediction: Isoform-specific knockdown of the truncated transcript (antisense oligonucleotide or splice-switching ASO) with no change in total gene mRNA restores SA-β-gal positivity, p21 induction and durable arrest in resistant cells, while catalytically dead rescue of the truncated isoform does not; ChIP-seq shows loss of the repressive mark specifically at senescence loci.

    Increased inclusion of exon 2 drives SUV39H2 overexpression and CDK4/6 inhibitor resistance. Suppressing SUV39H2 expression or methyltransferase activity removes H3K9me3 from enhancer regions, opens associated promoters, activates p21 and other senescence-associated genes, and restores therapy-induced senescence.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  18. Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Naturally occurring mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype variation is sufficient to shift the rate of ovarian ageing when nuclear background is held equivalent (e.g. conplastic strains or reciprocal F1/outbred crosses sharing a heterogeneous nuclear genome but differing in maternally inherited mtDNA). The effect is mediated by haplotype-specific OXPHOS coupling efficiency in the oocyte–granulosa unit, which sets the rate at which the non-renewable primordial follicle pool is activated and lost. Mechanism: Non-synonymous and tRNA/rRNA variants distinguishing wild-derived mtDNA haplotypes alter complex I/III assembly and proton-leak-adjusted coupling efficiency. Lower coupling raises the ATP/ADP-sensing load on primordial oocytes, de-repressing the PI3K–AKT–FOXO3a/mTORC1 switch that holds follicles dormant, so a larger fraction of the reserve is recruited per cycle and atresia-driven depletion accelerates. The nuclear genome is permissive but not causal because it is identical in distribution across the compared groups. Prediction: At matched chronological age (e.g. 9–12 months), mtDNA-divergent animals on the same heterogeneous nuclear background differ ≥2-fold in primordial follicle counts and in age at cycle irregularity, with the direction predicted by oocyte respirometry (coupling efficiency measured in isolated cumulus–oocyte complexes) and by nuclear-pFOXO3a exit in primordial oocytes — while nuclear SNP association in the same cohort explains no additional variance. Cytoplasmic transfer or mitochondrial replacement reverses the phenotype; a nuclear-background-matched but mtDNA-identical control shows no difference.

    The OKC-HETW mitochondrial haplotype accelerated ovarian ageing, causing faster primordial-follicle loss, inflammatory and fibrotic remodelling, mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired ovulation relative to the OKC-HETB haplotype on equivalently distributed nuclear backgrounds. Despite normal TFAM expression and elevated total TFAM protein, OKC-HETW ovaries had reduced mitochondrial TFAM, TFAM–mtDNA binding and TOMM20, supporting defective mitochondrial protein import and compromised mtDNA maintenance as the mechanism linking haplotype to accelerated decline.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  19. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-dependent loss of pericyte coverage in the cochlear stria vascularis is the primary causal event driving blood-labyrinth barrier (BLB) leakage and endocochlear potential decline. Pericyte dropout removes the paracrine signals that maintain endothelial tight junctions, so capillaries become permeable before hair cells die. Mechanism: Senescent/stressed cochlear pericytes detach and are lost, reducing pericyte-derived signalling (e.g. PDGFB–PDGFRB axis, angiopoietin-1/TIE2, TGF-beta) to strial endothelium. Endothelial tight-junction and adherens proteins (claudin-5, occludin, ZO-1, VE-cadherin) are downregulated and redistributed, transcytosis rises, plasma proteins and ions enter the intrastrial fluid space, K+ recycling by marginal cells fails and the endocochlear potential falls, raising auditory thresholds. Prediction: In aged animals, quantitative pericyte coverage of strial capillaries falls before measurable tracer leakage and before outer-hair-cell loss; conditional pericyte ablation in young animals reproduces leakage, endocochlear-potential drop and threshold shifts, while pericyte-targeted rescue (PDGF-BB or TIE2 agonism) restores claudin-5, barrier tightness and hearing in aged animals without changing hair-cell counts.

    Age-dependent loss of IGF-1 lowers SLC25A33 expression in strial pericytes, causing mitochondrial reactive oxygen species accumulation and activation of TGF-β/Smad2 signaling. This drives pericyte phenotypic switching, disrupts blood-labyrinth barrier integrity, and worsens hearing loss, whereas IGF-1 supplementation or SLC25A33 overexpression suppresses the pathway and partially restores auditory function.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  20. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 is a direct repressor of L1 retrotransposons: it is recruited to L1 5'UTR promoter regions and deacetylates histone H4K16 (and H3K9/H3K56) there, maintaining a closed chromatin state. Loss or decline of SIRT1 during ageing de-represses L1 transcription, and this de-repression is itself sufficient to accelerate the onset of cellular senescence. Mechanism: SIRT1 occupies the L1 5'UTR, removes H4K16ac, and enables SUV39H1/HP1-dependent H3K9 methylation and heterochromatin compaction over young, full-length L1 loci. Reduced SIRT1 activity (lower NAD+, SIRT1 protein loss, or its known relocalization away from repeats after DNA damage) leaves H4K16ac high, opens the promoter, and allows RNA Pol II to transcribe L1, generating ORF1p/ORF2p and cytoplasmic L1 cDNA. Prediction: SIRT1 ChIP shows enrichment at L1 5'UTRs in proliferating cells that is lost in senescent cells; SIRT1 knockdown raises L1 5'UTR H4K16ac and L1 RNA/ORF1p and triggers premature senescence markers (SA-β-gal, p16, p21), while SIRT1 overexpression or a deacetylase-dependent rescue (not the H363Y catalytic mutant) restores silencing and delays senescence. Critically, blocking L1 downstream of SIRT1 loss — L1 ASOs, ORF2p-targeting shRNA, or reverse-transcriptase inhibitors such as lamivudine — prevents the senescence acceleration without restoring SIRT1 activity, placing L1 causally downstream.

    SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  21. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Did not reach the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Maternal ageing drives placental senescence through transfer of senescence-promoting signals from aged maternal decidual cells to fetal trophoblast across the maternal–fetal interface. Blocking this directional paracrine transfer in aged mothers prevents trophoblast senescence and restores fetal growth. Mechanism: Aged decidual stromal and immune cells acquire a SASP enriched in IL-6, IL-1β, CXCL ligands and TGF-β-family factors. These diffuse into the adjacent trophoblast layer, where receptor-driven NF-κB and p38 signalling induces p16/p21 and a secondary senescence programme — paracrine 'bystander' senescence spreading from the maternal to the fetal compartment. The senescent trophoblast loses nutrient-transport and endocrine capacity, causing growth restriction. Prediction: In aged-mother/young-decidua chimeric or decidua-specific interventions (e.g. decidual-restricted p16-INK-ATTAC clearance, or decidua-restricted IL-1R/IL-6R knockout), fetal trophoblast senescence markers and placental efficiency normalise, whereas the same intervention applied to trophoblast alone gives partial rescue. Spatial transcriptomics should show a senescence gradient decaying with distance from the decidual border, with maternal-compartment onset preceding fetal-compartment onset in time-course sampling.

    Early inflammation and senescence-associated secretory phenotype activity induce IRF5-dependent CD38 expression in macrophages, which depletes NAD+ in decidual stromal cells and thereby promotes age-related placental senescence. Genetic or pharmacological disruption of this axis, including CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursor treatment, reduces placental senescence, rescues intrauterine growth restriction, and improves offspring metabolic outcomes.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2; grok-4.7: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  22. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    All four forecast yes: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aged endothelial cells lose a key metabolic enzyme that supplies a circulating NAD+ precursor to downstream tissues, so systemic NAD+ availability falls and senescence spreads organism-wide. Restoring the endothelial enzyme, or supplying the precursor, reverses systemic senescence and extends lifespan. Mechanism: Microvascular endothelium normally secretes an extracellular NAD+-biosynthetic enzyme (e.g., eNAMPT in extracellular vesicles) into plasma. Age-related endothelial dysfunction and capillary rarefaction reduce this secretion; parenchymal cells in muscle, brain, heart and kidney consequently cannot maintain NAD+ pools, sirtuin activity drops, mitochondrial and DNA-repair capacity fail, and cells enter a p16/p21 senescent state with SASP output that further damages the vasculature — a feed-forward loop. Prediction: Endothelial-specific knockout of the secreted enzyme in young mice lowers plasma precursor levels, drops NAD+ and raises senescence markers in distal non-vascular organs, and shortens lifespan; endothelial-specific overexpression (or precursor repletion) in aged mice restores distal-tissue NAD+, clears senescence and extends lifespan. Parenchymal-cell-specific knockout of the same enzyme does not reproduce the systemic phenotype, distinguishing a vascular-origin secreted factor from cell-autonomous metabolic decline.

    Progressive activation of endothelial C/EBPβ induces AEP, which cleaves NAMPT and thereby causes systemic NAD+ depletion, vascular dysfunction, senescence, and reduced lifespan. Genetic disruption of AEP or expression of cleavage-resistant NAMPT N136A ameliorates these effects, while AEP inhibition or NMN supplementation alleviates age-related vascular decline.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3; grok-4.7: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article

Scope of this held-out result

The rule was chosen from the Grok-generated results, and the forecasts for the Opus-generated hypotheses were requested after the rule had been recorded in the frozen protocol. This section therefore tests the rule on new forecasts. A prospective validation on new experimental outcomes remains a separate study: the hypotheses and the judges’ article-correspondence scores are historical. The observed 14/22 = 63.6% yield describes this selection on this corpus. On the Grok-generated hypotheses the same path gave 14/19 = 73.7%. Both cohorts are built on the same 50 original questions, so the two results are dependent at the task level. Sonnet shares a company with generator Opus. GPT-6 Astra shares a company with historical judge GPT-5.6 Sol. Gemini 4 Argon High and Grok 4.5 share companies with historical judges Gemini 4 Argon Medium and Grok 4.7. These developer relationships should be considered when interpreting forecasts and reference labels.

Protocol and results for reuse

Benchmark of two-stage screening on 250 Grok hypotheses

This separate retrospective experiment tests a two-stage rule using the recorded forecasts. First, Sonnet or Astra retains only hypotheses with a positive forecast. Then a panel of three, four or five models retains a survivor if at least one panel member gives a positive forecast.

Article correspondence means that at least two of three judges assigned a score of 3 or higher for the mechanism endpoint, or 4 or higher for the stricter causal-link endpoint. We conducted no laboratory experiments. Original model replies and reference labels are unchanged.

The first gate sets the maximum final sensitivity: a hypothesis rejected there cannot be recovered downstream. High specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Safe rejection of article matches requires high sensitivity as well.

Paired comparisons use 240 hypotheses from 48 source tasks, including 40 article matches. Of the original 250 hypotheses, 10 lack usable forecasts from all five models; 2 of those meet the selected reference threshold. They are reported as technical exclusions, not negative forecasts.

Second stage: Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5. Rule: at least one positive forecast.

The two-stage rule retains 53 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the article-correspondence criterion and 28 are below it: 25/53 = 47.2% article matches among selected hypotheses (positive predictive value). Across the full cohort, 25 of all 40 article matches were found: 62.5% sensitivity.

GPT-6 Astra is also in the second-stage panel. Its stored positive forecast already satisfies the at-least-one rule for every survivor. This panel cannot change the first-stage selection when votes are reused.

  1. Common starting cohort240 hypotheses; 40 meet the reference threshold
  2. Stage one with GPT-6 AstraRetained 53, including 25 article matches. Rejected 187, including 15 article matches.
  3. Second-stage votingSonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5Retained 53: 25 article matches and 28 below threshold. Removed another 0, including 0 article matches.

Four end-to-end screening metrics

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Usable forecasts: 240. Yes: 53, comprising 25 correct and 28 incorrect forecasts. No: 187, comprising 172 correct and 15 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 53 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points95% interval 31.3% to 62.7%95% interval for the difference: +16.3 to +42.6 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 187 hypotheses. Of these, 172 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points95% interval 86.7% to 96.2%95% interval for the difference: +1.3 to +14.2 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 40 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 25 of these.62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points95% interval 47.1% to 78.6%95% interval for the difference: -16.7 to +35.6 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 200 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 172 of these.86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points95% interval 81.3% to 90.1%95% interval for the difference: +28.9 to +44.2 percentage points

Pointwise descriptive 95% intervals use 2,000 paired bootstrap draws of complete original source tasks. They account for within-task dependence. They are not adjusted for examining multiple rules and do not validate the selected rule independently.

Collective screening with an initial gate and on the full cohort

An article match means that at least two of three judges assigned a correspondence score of 3 or higher. This comparison measures correspondence with the article. We did not perform laboratory experiments to validate the generated hypotheses.

Collective screening of the full hypothesis cohort

Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 each forecast all 240 hypotheses. A hypothesis is selected when at least one of these models forecasts yes. An individual-model rejection gate is not applied in this scenario.

Selected yes: 132 hypotheses. Of these, 37 meet the article-correspondence criterion and 95 are below it. The proportion of article matches among selected hypotheses is 37/132 = 28%. This is positive predictive value.

There are 40 article matches in the input cohort. The rule finds 37 and misses 3: 37/40 = 92.5% sensitivity. Here the denominator is all article matches, including those the rule did not select.

A no forecast was given to 108 of 240 hypotheses: 45% of the input cohort was discarded. Among those no forecasts, 105/108 = 97.2% are below the article-correspondence threshold. This latter fraction is negative predictive value.

Single-model screening followed by collective screening of survivors

First, GPT-6 Astra forecasts all 240 hypotheses and retains 53 with a yes forecast. Then Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5 collectively screen those survivors. A hypothesis passes the second stage when at least one of the listed models forecasts yes. Hypotheses rejected at the first stage remain excluded.

Selected yes: 53 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the article-correspondence criterion and 28 are below it. The proportion of article matches among selected hypotheses is 25/53 = 47.2%. This is positive predictive value.

There are 40 article matches in the input cohort. The rule finds 25 and misses 15: 25/40 = 62.5% sensitivity. Here the denominator is all article matches, including those the rule did not select.

A no forecast was given to 187 of 240 hypotheses: 77.9% of the input cohort was discarded. Among those no forecasts, 172/187 = 92% are below the article-correspondence threshold. This latter fraction is negative predictive value.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
GPT-6 Astra alone screens all 240 hypotheses47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5; at least one yes; all 240 hypotheses28%37 / 132Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +10.1 percentage points97.2%105 / 108Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.6 percentage points92.5%37 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +37.5 percentage points52.5%105 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +3 percentage points24013237951081053
First gate: GPT-6 Astra; then Sonnet 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + Gemini 4 Argon High + Grok 4.5, at least one yes47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
Coin17.9%22 / 12384.6%99 / 11755%22 / 4049.5%99 / 200240123221011179918

Number of individual model forecasts

Stage one: 240 forecasts. Stage two: 53 survivors × 3 additional models = 159 forecasts. Total: 399, compared with 960 for the same panel on the full cohort. Reduction: 561 forecasts (58.4%).

One unit is one forecast by one model for one hypothesis. A reused first-stage vote is not counted twice. This is a reconstructed workload; the original forecasts were already collected. Actual HTTP requests may group hypotheses. Tokens, price and elapsed time were not measured here.

Second-stage metrics among survivors

This calculation includes only the 53 survivors, with 25 article matches. Its sensitivity denominator is 25, whereas the end-to-end denominator is 40. The 15 article matches rejected at stage one are excluded here. The recorded coin is restricted to exactly the same survivors.

Usable forecasts: 53. Yes: 53, comprising 25 correct and 28 incorrect forecasts. No: 0, comprising 0 correct and 0 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 53 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.47.2%25 / 53Coin: 44.4% (12 / 27)Difference from the coin: +2.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 0 hypotheses. Of these, 0 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.No estimate0 / 0Coin: 50% (13 / 26)Difference from the coin is undefined for this denominator.
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 25 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 25 of these.100%25 / 25Coin: 48% (12 / 25)Difference from the coin: +52 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 28 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 0 of these.0%0 / 28Coin: 46.4% (13 / 28)Difference from the coin: -46.4 percentage points
Inspect hypotheses and stage decisions (15)
  1. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Age-related decline in GATA1 dosage or activity within MEPs tips the GATA1–FLI1 cross-antagonism toward FLI1, causally diverting differentiation from erythroid to megakaryocytic programs. Mechanism: Reduced GATA1 transcription, translation, or post-translational activation with age weakens repression of FLI1 and megakaryocyte genes, allowing FLI1 to dominate the mutual antagonism that normally partitions MEP fate. Prediction: Restoring GATA1 levels or activity in aged MEPs will reinstate erythroid differentiation and suppress megakaryocyte markers, whereas heterozygous Gata1 reduction in young MEPs will phenocopy the aged erythroid-to-platelet shift.

    Pbx1 is a regulatory hub that drives age-related transcriptional and differentiation changes in hematopoietic stem cells. It suppresses erythroid differentiation by repressing Gata1 expression, thereby contributing to the lineage imbalance characteristic of HSC ageing.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  2. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 0 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging disrupts osteocyte gap-junction and hemichannel communication (notably Cx43), preventing propagation of load signals through the osteocyte network and thereby limiting coordinated anabolic output. Restoring Cx43 function will recover the loading response. Mechanism: Impaired Cx43-mediated intercellular coupling and PGE2/ATP release truncates network-level mechanotransmission from strained to effector cells. Prediction: Aged bone will show reduced load-triggered PGE2 release and dye coupling; Cx43 rescue or hemichannel opening will restore formation after loading, while Cx43 disruption in young bone will abolish the anabolic response.

    In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  3. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging limits retinal neuronal reprogramming by locking Müller glia into a more rigid epigenetic state that resists injury-triggered fate conversion. Restoring youthful chromatin accessibility at neurogenic loci in aged Müller glia will rescue reprogramming. Mechanism: Age-dependent accumulation of repressive chromatin marks and reduced pioneer-factor accessibility at Ascl1 targets and neuronal gene loci prevents injury cues from opening the neurogenic program in Müller glia. Prediction: Aged Müller glia will exhibit reduced chromatin accessibility and higher H3K27me3/DNA methylation at neurogenic loci after injury relative to young glia; transient epigenetic remodeling (e.g., HDAC or EZH2 inhibition timed with injury) will preferentially increase reprogrammed neurons in aged retina and reopen accessibility at those loci.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  4. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Aging diminishes retinal neuronal reprogramming by altering microglia–Müller glia crosstalk so that injury no longer delivers the transient, correctly timed trophic and cytokine signals that license neurogenic conversion. Reinstating a youthful microglial injury response in aged retina will restore reprogramming. Mechanism: Age-reprogrammed microglia mount a prolonged, less resolved inflammatory response and underproduce pro-neurogenic injury signals (e.g., specific growth factors or acute cytokine pulses) that Müller glia require to enter a neurogenic state. Prediction: Transcriptomic and cytokine profiling will show that aged microglia after injury lack youthful acute pro-reprogramming signals and sustain unresolved inflammation; replacing aged microglia with young microglia (or transferring young microglial secretome) will increase reprogrammed neuron numbers in old hosts, whereas aged microglia in young hosts will suppress reprogramming.

    Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  5. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Excess adiposity promotes osteoarthritis by releasing adipose-derived extracellular vesicles whose cargo (specific miRNAs and proteins) is taken up by chondrocytes and synovial cells, reprogramming them toward a catabolic, inflammatory state. Interrupting EV biogenesis, release, or uptake should therefore lessen joint degeneration despite persistent obesity. Mechanism: Adipose EVs deliver regulatory miRNAs/proteins that suppress anabolic gene programs and induce proteases and cytokines in joint cells. Prediction: Serum or synovial fluid EVs from obese donors transfer OA-promoting activity in vitro and in lean recipients; adipose-specific Rab27a/nSMase2 disruption or EV uptake blockade reduces OA severity while circulating leptin and classical cytokines are unchanged, separating EV transfer from soluble adipokine/cytokine models.

    Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  6. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Therapeutic efficacy of mutation correction on bone depends on cell-autonomous rescue of osteoblasts and osteocytes, with little contribution from corrected hematopoietic or vascular compartments. Mechanism: Progerin in osteolineage cells directly causes defective matrix secretion, impaired mechanotransduction, and osteocyte senescence; correcting only those cells restores formation and integrity even if other tissues retain mutant alleles. Prediction: Lineage-restricted correction in osteoprogenitors rescues molecular, cellular, and structural bone phenotypes to a similar degree as ubiquitous correction, whereas correction confined to hematopoietic or endothelial cells yields negligible skeletal improvement.

    Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 2; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  7. What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 0 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    In SOD1G93A mice, complement component C1q tags motor-neuron synapses and somata, recruiting microglia that strip synapses and phagocytose still-viable neurons, thereby eliminating motor neurons and shortening survival. Blocking C1q–microglia coupling should therefore spare motor neurons and extend lifespan. Mechanism: Complement C1q opsonization drives microglial synaptic stripping and phagoptosis of motor neurons Prediction: Genetic or antibody blockade of C1q (or CR3) reduces motor-neuron loss and prolongs survival more than anti-inflammatory treatments that leave complement tagging intact

    Microglial Axl and Mer receptors recognize elevated phosphatidylserine on SOD1G93A motor neurons and drive their phagocytic elimination while the neurons are still alive. Germline or microglia-restricted inactivation of Axl and Mertk preserves cholinergic motor neurons and neuromuscular synapses and extends lifespan in SOD1G93A mice.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  8. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Transplantation of gut microbiota from older human donors into germ-free or antibiotic-treated young recipient animals causally impairs intestinal epithelial barrier integrity relative to microbiota from young donors. This effect is driven by enrichment of age-associated taxa that reduce mucus thickness and tight-junction protein expression. Mechanism: Age-enriched mucin-degrading and pro-inflammatory taxa deplete mucus and downregulate occludin, claudin-1, and ZO-1, increasing paracellular permeability. Prediction: Older-donor microbiota recipients show higher FITC-dextran flux and lower tight-junction protein levels than young-donor recipients; co-colonization or selective depletion of candidate mucin degraders abolishes the barrier defect while matched metabolite profiles without those taxa do not.

    Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  9. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Adventitial fibroblasts expressing progerin are the main cellular source of adventitial fibrosis and vessel stiffening in HGPS, acting through excessive collagen synthesis and myofibroblast differentiation. Mechanism: Progerin alters fibroblast mechanotransduction and TGF-β/SMAD signaling, converting adventitial fibroblasts into collagen-secreting myofibroblasts that thicken and stiffen the outer wall. Prediction: Adventitia-restricted progerin will cause adventitial thickening and elevated collagen I/III without requiring medial VSMC loss, whereas clearing or genetically rescuing adventitial fibroblasts will reduce fibrosis despite persistent medial pathology.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  10. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Progerin in endothelial cells is the primary driver of vascular wall inflammation in HGPS, through upregulation of leukocyte-adhesion molecules and inflammatory cytokines that recruit immune cells into the vessel wall. Mechanism: Endothelial nuclear envelope dysfunction activates NF-κB and related stress pathways, increasing ICAM-1/VCAM-1 and cytokine release that promote leukocyte extravasation and chronic inflammation. Prediction: Endothelium-restricted progerin will produce inflammatory infiltrates and adhesion-molecule upregulation even when medial and adventitial cells are wild-type, while VSMC-restricted progerin will produce little inflammation without endothelial involvement.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  11. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Distinct HGPS vascular features segregate by compartment: medial VSMC loss and calcification require VSMC-intrinsic progerin, while intimal inflammation requires endothelial progerin, and adventitial fibrosis requires fibroblast progerin, implying limited interchangeability of cell-autonomous effects. Mechanism: Each mural lineage has a distinct transcriptional and stress response to progerin, so the same laminopathy maps onto different effector programs (apoptosis/calcification in VSMCs, adhesion/inflammation in endothelium, matrix deposition in fibroblasts). Prediction: In a panel of lineage-restricted progerin models, each pathological feature will appear only when the corresponding compartment expresses progerin, and combining compartments will additively recreate the full HGPS vascular phenotype.

    In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 4; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 4

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  12. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 suppresses cytoplasmic L1 cDNA sensing by limiting L1 reverse transcription and/or by deacetylating components of the cGAS–STING pathway; SIRT1 decline in senescence therefore amplifies interferon-stimulated gene (ISG) expression that locks in the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP). Mechanism: Reduced SIRT1 permits accumulation of L1-derived cytoplasmic DNA that activates cGAS–STING–IRF3/NF-κB, producing chronic type-I interferon and SASP that maintain senescence. Prediction: SIRT1 depletion elevates cytoplasmic L1 DNA, cGAMP, and ISGs concurrent with senescence; co-depletion of cGAS or STING, or reverse-transcriptase inhibition, blocks ISG induction and partially reverses senescence phenotypes without restoring L1 RNA levels to baseline.

    SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  13. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 1 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 deacetylates KAP1/TRIM28 (or an associated co-repressor), thereby enabling SETDB1/HP1 recruitment to L1 elements; without SIRT1, KAP1 hyperacetylation disables the repression complex and allows L1 reactivation that drives senescence-associated inflammation. Mechanism: SIRT1-dependent deacetylation of KAP1 stabilizes the KAP1–SETDB1–HP1 heterochromatin complex on L1 DNA, blocking transcription. Prediction: SIRT1 loss increases KAP1 acetylation, reduces KAP1/SETDB1 occupancy at L1 loci, and elevates L1 RNA; a non-acetylatable KAP1 mutant restores L1 silencing and delays senescence markers despite SIRT1 depletion, whereas an acetylation-mimic KAP1 does not.

    SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  14. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 0 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Stress-activated sympathetic fibers co-release neuropeptide Y into the marrow niche; NPY via Y1 receptors on stromal cells induces mitochondrial dysfunction and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype that impairs osteoblastogenesis. Non-invasive sensory or autonomic peripheral stimulation restores osteogenesis by suppressing NPY release or upregulating competing osteogenic neuropeptides such as CGRP. Mechanism: Sympathetic NPY → Y1R → mitochondrial ROS/SASP in marrow stroma → osteogenic failure Prediction: Y1 receptor antagonism or NPY deletion will prevent stress-induced senescence without normalizing norepinephrine levels, and peripheral stimulation efficacy will correlate with reduced marrow NPY and elevated CGRP rather than with β-adrenergic tone alone.

    Sympathetic neuropeptide Y drives stress-induced osteoporosis by activating adipocyte Y1R and inducing senescence in bone marrow adipocytes, which impairs osteogenesis. Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate sensory nerves, causing local semaphorin 3A release that suppresses sympathetic neuropeptide Y secretion through a peripheral circuit independent of central pathways.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 4; gemini-4-argon-medium: 3

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
  15. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes · Reached the selected article-correspondence threshold

    GPT-6 Astra: no. Panel positive votes: 2 of 4. Final decision: no.

    Complete original hypothesis in English

    Vascular aging shortens lifespan by upregulating endothelial CD38, which depletes circulating NAD+ and NAD precursors and thereby impairs SIRT1/SIRT3 activity across organs. Restoring systemic NAD+ or endothelium-specific CD38 inhibition should reverse organism-wide senescence downstream of vascular decline. Mechanism: Aged endothelium ↑CD38 → systemic NAD+ exhaustion → loss of sirtuin-dependent proteostasis and mitochondrial quality control Prediction: Plasma NAD+/NMN falls with endothelial CD38 induction; endothelium-specific Cd38 deletion raises NAD+ in muscle, liver, and brain and extends lifespan more than tissue-specific Cd38 deletion outside endothelium, with little change in circulating IL-6.

    Progressive activation of endothelial C/EBPβ induces AEP, which cleaves NAMPT and thereby causes systemic NAD+ depletion, vascular dysfunction, senescence, and reduced lifespan. Genetic disruption of AEP or expression of cleavage-resistant NAMPT N136A ameliorates these effects, while AEP inhibition or NMN supplementation alleviates age-related vascular decline.

    gpt-5.6-sol: 3; claude-opus-5-5: 3; gemini-4-argon-medium: 2

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments · Original article
All 32 two-stage rules

Two first-stage predictors × 16 panels of three, four or five models give 32 rules per condition. All use at least one positive panel vote. Click a row to inspect its stages. Results are exploratory; a maximum found on this cohort needs independent validation.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
51.1%24 / 47Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.2 percentage points91.7%177 / 193Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points60%24 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points88.5%177 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points24047242319317716
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
56.1%23 / 41Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +38.2 percentage points91.5%182 / 199Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.8 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points91%182 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +41.5 percentage points24041231819918217
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
50%23 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points91.2%177 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points57.5%23 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points88.5%177 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points24046232319417717
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
51%25 / 49Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.1 percentage points92.1%176 / 191Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points88%176 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points24049252419117615
51%25 / 49Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.1 percentage points92.1%176 / 191Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points88%176 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38.5 percentage points24049252419117615
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
47.2%25 / 53Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.3 percentage points92%172 / 187Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points62.5%25 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points86%172 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +36.5 percentage points24053252818717215
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
47.6%20 / 42Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points89.9%178 / 198Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points50%20 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -5 percentage points89%178 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39.5 percentage points24042202219817820
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
51.3%20 / 39Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +33.4 percentage points90%181 / 201Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.4 percentage points50%20 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -5 percentage points90.5%181 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +41 percentage points24039201920118120
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
47.6%20 / 42Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points89.9%178 / 198Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points50%20 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -5 percentage points89%178 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39.5 percentage points24042202219817820
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
46.5%20 / 43Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +28.6 percentage points89.8%177 / 197Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.2 percentage points50%20 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -5 percentage points88.5%177 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points24043202319717720
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519
46.5%20 / 43Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +28.6 percentage points89.8%177 / 197Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.2 percentage points50%20 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -5 percentage points88.5%177 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +39 percentage points24043202319717720
45.7%21 / 46Coin: 17.9% (22 / 123)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points90.2%175 / 194Coin: 84.6% (99 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points52.5%21 / 40Coin: 55% (22 / 40)Difference from the coin: -2.5 percentage points87.5%175 / 200Coin: 49.5% (99 / 200)Difference from the coin: +38 percentage points24046212519417519

Scope of the experiment

The two-stage rule was proposed after inspecting results on this cohort. It is an internal retrospective reconstruction using unchanged forecasts, not a new sequential run. A new second-stage prompt, fresh draws, joint discussion or a genuinely independent cohort would be a different experiment. Article correspondence does not establish biological truth.

For a prospective test, freeze the first gate, panel and voting rule before collecting a new cohort. Check how many article matches the first gate loses, the four final metrics and the actual resource use.

Protocol and results for reuse

Forecasts from October 22, 2026 · 7 of 8 runs complete

Benchmark of experimental-confirmation forecasts

Models receive the same 250 hypotheses across 50 research questions. They predict whether each hypothesis will be confirmed experimentally and advise which experiments to run. Article outcomes are hidden.

The percentage in each row shows how many recommendations correspond to the known article findings, as scored by a majority of the original judges.

Recommendation conditions and article-score criterion

Forecast probability and advice to run an experiment are separate outputs. A model may advise an informative test despite a modest probability of support. Row percentages below are observed article-correspondence fractions among recommendations; model-reported probabilities are available in the full responses. Changing the required article score reevaluates the saved recommendations. Their count stays the same because the model forecasts do not depend on the judge-score criterion.

Every hypothesis the model advises testing. The article’s causal relationship · scores 4 or 5

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Coin

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 117, comprising 2 correct and 115 incorrect forecasts. No: 133, comprising 131 correct and 2 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 117 hypotheses. Of these, 2 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.1.7%2 / 117
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 133 hypotheses. Of these, 131 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.98.5%131 / 133
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 2 of these.50%2 / 4
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 131 of these.53.3%131 / 246

Usable forecasts for 250 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 128, comprising 4 correct and 124 incorrect forecasts. No: 122, comprising 122 correct and 0 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 128 hypotheses. Of these, 4 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.3.1%4 / 128Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +1.4 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 122 hypotheses. Of these, 122 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.100%122 / 122Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +1.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 4 of these.100%4 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 122 of these.49.6%122 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: -3.7 percentage points

Usable forecasts for 215 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 7.

Usable forecasts: 215. Yes: 103, comprising 4 correct and 99 incorrect forecasts. No: 112, comprising 112 correct and 0 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 103 hypotheses. Of these, 4 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.3.9%4 / 103Coin: 2% (2 / 100)Difference from the coin: +1.9 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 112 hypotheses. Of these, 112 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.100%112 / 112Coin: 98.3% (113 / 115)Difference from the coin: +1.7 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 4 of these.100%4 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 211 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 112 of these.53.1%112 / 211Coin: 53.6% (113 / 211)Difference from the coin: -0.5 percentage points

Usable forecasts for 250 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 109, comprising 3 correct and 106 incorrect forecasts. No: 141, comprising 140 correct and 1 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 109 hypotheses. Of these, 3 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.2.8%3 / 109Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +1 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 141 hypotheses. Of these, 140 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.99.3%140 / 141Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 3 of these.75%3 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 140 of these.56.9%140 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +3.7 percentage points

Usable forecasts for 240 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 2.

Usable forecasts: 240. Yes: 134, comprising 3 correct and 131 incorrect forecasts. No: 106, comprising 105 correct and 1 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 134 hypotheses. Of these, 3 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.2.2%3 / 134Coin: 1.8% (2 / 112)Difference from the coin: +0.5 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 106 hypotheses. Of these, 105 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.99.1%105 / 106Coin: 98.4% (126 / 128)Difference from the coin: +0.6 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 3 of these.75%3 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 236 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 105 of these.44.5%105 / 236Coin: 53.4% (126 / 236)Difference from the coin: -8.9 percentage points

Predictive value has not been calculated for this run.

Stopped before completion

Usable forecasts for 250 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 200, comprising 3 correct and 197 incorrect forecasts. No: 50, comprising 49 correct and 1 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 200 hypotheses. Of these, 3 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.1.5%3 / 200Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: -0.2 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 50 hypotheses. Of these, 49 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.98%49 / 50Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: -0.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 3 of these.75%3 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 49 of these.19.9%49 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: -33.3 percentage points

Usable forecasts for 250 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 0.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 152, comprising 4 correct and 148 incorrect forecasts. No: 98, comprising 98 correct and 0 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 152 hypotheses. Of these, 4 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.2.6%4 / 152Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +0.9 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 98 hypotheses. Of these, 98 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.100%98 / 98Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +1.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 4 of these.100%4 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 98 of these.39.8%98 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: -13.4 percentage points

Usable forecasts for 225 of 250 hypotheses. Questions with invalid output: 5.

Usable forecasts: 225. Yes: 137, comprising 3 correct and 134 incorrect forecasts. No: 88, comprising 88 correct and 0 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 137 hypotheses. Of these, 3 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.2.2%3 / 137Coin: 1.8% (2 / 109)Difference from the coin: +0.4 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 88 hypotheses. Of these, 88 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.100%88 / 88Coin: 99.1% (115 / 116)Difference from the coin: +0.9 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 3 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 3 of these.100%3 / 3Coin: 66.7% (2 / 3)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 222 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 88 of these.39.6%88 / 222Coin: 51.8% (115 / 222)Difference from the coin: -12.2 percentage points

Reached the selected reference threshold: 4 of 250 hypotheses.

All coin results use the original recorded tosses. Each comparison retains only the same hypotheses used for the corresponding model or rule; no toss is redrawn.

All 250 recorded tosses

A coin toss for each of the same 250 hypotheses

We made one fair coin toss per hypothesis. Heads recommends testing; tails skips it. Across 250 tosses, heads came up 117 times and tails 133 times.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 117, comprising 2 correct and 115 incorrect forecasts. No: 133, comprising 131 correct and 2 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 117 hypotheses. Of these, 2 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.1.7%2 / 117
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 133 hypotheses. Of these, 131 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.98.5%131 / 133
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 2 of these.50%2 / 4
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 131 of these.53.3%131 / 246

The coin recommended 2 of the 4 hypotheses corresponding to the article and missed 2. Another 115 recommendations lack that correspondence; their biological outcome remains unknown.

All 250 recorded tosses

Each square is one hypothesis in its original order. The coin decision stays fixed when you change the article-correspondence condition. Open a square to see its source research question.

Heads, corresponds to the articleHeads, biological outcome unknownTails, corresponds to the articleTails, biological outcome unknown
Toss 1, question R42581103, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 2, question R42581103, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 3, question R42581103, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 4, question R42581103, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 5, question R42581103, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 6, question R42601407, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 7, question R42601407, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 8, question R42601407, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 9, question R42601407, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 10, question R42601407, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 11, question R42605193, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 12, question R42605193, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 13, question R42605193, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 14, question R42605193, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 15, question R42605193, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 16, question R42608398, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 17, question R42608398, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 18, question R42608398, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 19, question R42608398, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 20, question R42608398, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 21, question R42627902, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 22, question R42627902, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 23, question R42627902, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 24, question R42627902, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 25, question R42627902, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 26, question R42630044, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 27, question R42630044, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 28, question R42630044, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 29, question R42630044, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 30, question R42630044, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 31, question R42639736, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 32, question R42639736, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 33, question R42639736, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 34, question R42639736, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 35, question R42639736, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 36, question R42642518, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 37, question R42642518, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 38, question R42642518, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 39, question R42642518, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 40, question R42642518, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 41, question R42642521, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 42, question R42642521, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 43, question R42642521, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 44, question R42642521, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 45, question R42642521, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 46, question R42647119, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 47, question R42647119, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 48, question R42647119, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 49, question R42647119, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 50, question R42647119, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; corresponds to the articleToss 51, question R42647635, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 52, question R42647635, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 53, question R42647635, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 54, question R42647635, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 55, question R42647635, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 56, question R42663085, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 57, question R42663085, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 58, question R42663085, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 59, question R42663085, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 60, question R42663085, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 61, question R42664348, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 62, question R42664348, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 63, question R42664348, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 64, question R42664348, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 65, question R42664348, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 66, question R42665751, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 67, question R42665751, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 68, question R42665751, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 69, question R42665751, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 70, question R42665751, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 71, question R42689491, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 72, question R42689491, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 73, question R42689491, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 74, question R42689491, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 75, question R42689491, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 76, question R42696595, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 77, question R42696595, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 78, question R42696595, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 79, question R42696595, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 80, question R42696595, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 81, question R42698274, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 82, question R42698274, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 83, question R42698274, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 84, question R42698274, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 85, question R42698274, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 86, question R42717261, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 87, question R42717261, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 88, question R42717261, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 89, question R42717261, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 90, question R42717261, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 91, question R42723546, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 92, question R42723546, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 93, question R42723546, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 94, question R42723546, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; corresponds to the articleToss 95, question R42723546, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 96, question R42725837, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 97, question R42725837, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 98, question R42725837, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 99, question R42725837, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; corresponds to the articleToss 100, question R42725837, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 101, question R42736449, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 102, question R42736449, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 103, question R42736449, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 104, question R42736449, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 105, question R42736449, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 106, question R42744804, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 107, question R42744804, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 108, question R42744804, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 109, question R42744804, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 110, question R42744804, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 111, question R42749700, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 112, question R42749700, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 113, question R42749700, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 114, question R42749700, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 115, question R42749700, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 116, question R42758848, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 117, question R42758848, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 118, question R42758848, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 119, question R42758848, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 120, question R42758848, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 121, question R42759510, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 122, question R42759510, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 123, question R42759510, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 124, question R42759510, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 125, question R42759510, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 126, question R42775695, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 127, question R42775695, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 128, question R42775695, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 129, question R42775695, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 130, question R42775695, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 131, question R42775698, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 132, question R42775698, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 133, question R42775698, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 134, question R42775698, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 135, question R42775698, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 136, question R42786310, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 137, question R42786310, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 138, question R42786310, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 139, question R42786310, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 140, question R42786310, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 141, question R42805954, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 142, question R42805954, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 143, question R42805954, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 144, question R42805954, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 145, question R42805954, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 146, question R42810392, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 147, question R42810392, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 148, question R42810392, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 149, question R42810392, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; corresponds to the articleToss 150, question R42810392, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 151, question R42811497, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 152, question R42811497, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 153, question R42811497, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 154, question R42811497, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 155, question R42811497, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 156, question R42821663, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 157, question R42821663, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 158, question R42821663, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 159, question R42821663, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 160, question R42821663, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 161, question R42822442, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 162, question R42822442, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 163, question R42822442, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 164, question R42822442, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 165, question R42822442, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 166, question R42826184, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 167, question R42826184, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 168, question R42826184, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 169, question R42826184, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 170, question R42826184, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 171, question R42839094, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 172, question R42839094, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 173, question R42839094, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 174, question R42839094, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 175, question R42839094, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 176, question R42841227, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 177, question R42841227, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 178, question R42841227, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 179, question R42841227, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 180, question R42841227, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 181, question R42842666, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 182, question R42842666, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 183, question R42842666, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 184, question R42842666, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 185, question R42842666, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 186, question R42844664, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 187, question R42844664, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 188, question R42844664, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 189, question R42844664, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 190, question R42844664, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 191, question R42853938, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 192, question R42853938, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 193, question R42853938, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 194, question R42853938, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 195, question R42853938, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 196, question R42858183, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 197, question R42858183, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 198, question R42858183, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 199, question R42858183, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 200, question R42858183, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 201, question R42806945, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 202, question R42806945, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 203, question R42806945, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 204, question R42806945, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 205, question R42806945, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 206, question R42723144, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 207, question R42723144, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 208, question R42723144, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 209, question R42723144, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 210, question R42723144, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 211, question R42808804, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 212, question R42808804, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 213, question R42808804, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 214, question R42808804, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 215, question R42808804, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 216, question R42585340, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 217, question R42585340, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 218, question R42585340, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 219, question R42585340, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 220, question R42585340, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 221, question R42669067, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 222, question R42669067, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 223, question R42669067, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 224, question R42669067, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 225, question R42669067, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 226, question R42811065, hypothesis 5: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 227, question R42811065, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 228, question R42811065, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 229, question R42811065, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 230, question R42811065, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 231, question R42841610, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 232, question R42841610, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 233, question R42841610, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 234, question R42841610, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 235, question R42841610, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 236, question R42806003, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 237, question R42806003, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 238, question R42806003, hypothesis 1: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 239, question R42806003, hypothesis 2: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 240, question R42806003, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 241, question R42806572, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 242, question R42806572, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 243, question R42806572, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 244, question R42806572, hypothesis 4: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 245, question R42806572, hypothesis 3: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 246, question R42748238, hypothesis 1: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 247, question R42748238, hypothesis 5: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknownToss 248, question R42748238, hypothesis 4: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 249, question R42748238, hypothesis 3: tails, skips; biological outcome unknownToss 250, question R42748238, hypothesis 2: heads, recommends testing; biological outcome unknown

This single sequence was drawn after the model results were available. The draw used random bytes and fixed hypothesis identities; article labels and model forecasts never entered the draw. All tosses and source hashes are saved. Repeated visits and probability thresholds reuse this sequence.

Article correspondence among coin recommendationsOf all recommended hypotheses, how many meet the article-score criterion.1.7%2 of 117 hypotheses95% interval 0% to 4.4%
Sensitivity of the coin recommendationsThe share of all article-corresponding hypotheses that the coin recommended.50%2 of 4 hypotheses95% interval 0% to 100%
Specificity of the coin recommendationsOf the hypotheses below the criterion, how many were left outside the recommendations.53.3%131 of 246 hypotheses95% interval 47.6% to 58.7%
Lack of article correspondence among coin skipsOf all hypotheses left outside the recommendations, how many fall below the article-score criterion.98.5%131 of 133 hypotheses95% interval 96.2% to 100%

Download the tosses, counts and model comparisons

Findings and limits of this evaluation

The instruction forecasts experimental support for the hypothesis’s own causal claim. One published article supplies only partial evidence about possible truth. These fractions describe internal retrospective evaluation on previously examined questions. Future reliability requires new questions and subsequent experimental support, refutation or an unresolved outcome. A small number of recommendations cannot establish 100% reliability.

Instruction, source data and execution conditions

After forecasts are saved, we check how many recommended hypotheses correspond to the source articles. We use the fixed original scores from three judges, with agreement from at least two required. Choose the score criterion in the section controls. No laboratory experiments were performed here.

Every model received identical full hypothesis texts, backgrounds and questions. Generator identities, article identities, reference findings and judge scores were withheld. Internet and tools were disabled; saved replies were reconciled with the call ledger and request records. Each question permits two attempts to obtain a usable response; capacity waits before model dispatch are counted separately. Recommendation policies were fixed before the new forecasts. There is no forced top-five selection or one-per-question restriction.

Verified provider date evidence and saved early-preprint screening were used. Articles first appeared from August 1 to October 9, 2026; screening covers dates through July 1. Knowledge and pretraining boundaries do not establish the composition of all later training stages. Complete per-call historical generator isolation is unavailable. Current forecasts have individually checked restriction evidence.

The source hypotheses were generated by GPT-6 Astra. Their article correspondence was scored by Claude Opus 5.5, Grok 4.7 and Gemini 4 Argon at medium reasoning effort. Some predictors also generated or judged the source hypotheses; other predictors share a provider with the judges. These overlapping roles make this an internal comparison.

  • Claude Sonnet 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 52
  • Claude Opus 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 43. Calls including retries: 67
  • Claude Haiku 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 53
  • Claude Opus 4.8: Declared training-data boundary: January 31, 2026. Valid question outputs: 48. Calls including retries: 56
  • Claude Fable 5.1: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 0. Calls including retries: 1
  • GPT-6 Astra: Declared knowledge boundary: April 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 50
  • Gemini 4 Argon: Declared knowledge boundary: March 31, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 50
  • Grok 4.5: Declared pretraining boundary: January 31, 2026. Valid question outputs: 45. Calls including retries: 60
Complete results and data

Benchmark of joint model recommendations

Combine the saved forecasts and inspect every agreement rule. A positive vote means that a model recommends experimental testing, or gives a probability at least as high as the value selected below. Compare the fraction of article matches among recommendations with the number of known matches omitted.

Article correspondence is established by at least two of three original judges: a score of at least 3 for the main mechanism, or 4 or 5 for the causal relationship. Future experimental outcomes for the other hypotheses remain unknown.

Four models with complete forecasts · 250 hypotheses. Every hypothesis the model advises testing. The article’s main mechanism · score 3 or higher.

This panel covers 250 hypotheses from 50 questions, including 36 article matches under the selected score condition.

Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

Every hypothesis in a panel has a usable forecast from every listed model. A missing forecast never counts as a negative vote. Comparisons between panels use different cohorts.

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Article correspondence when at least the stated number of models agree
Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
15.6%34 / 218Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +1.1 percentage points93.8%30 / 32Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points94.4%34 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +47.2 percentage points14%30 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: -39.3 percentage points2502183418432302
18.9%33 / 175Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +4.3 percentage points96%72 / 75Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +10.3 percentage points91.7%33 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +44.4 percentage points33.6%72 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: -19.6 percentage points2501753314275723
22.8%28 / 123Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.2 percentage points93.7%119 / 127Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points55.6%119 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +2.3 percentage points25012328951271198
20.5%15 / 73Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points88.1%156 / 177Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points41.7%15 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -5.6 percentage points72.9%156 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +19.6 percentage points25073155817715621

At least 3 of 4 positive votes

This rule recommends 123 of 250 hypotheses. Of these, 28 match the article (22.8%). It omits 8 of the 36 article matches in this same cohort.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 123, comprising 28 correct and 95 incorrect forecasts. No: 127, comprising 119 correct and 8 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 123 hypotheses. Of these, 28 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.22.8%28 / 123Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +8.2 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 127 hypotheses. Of these, 119 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.93.7%119 / 127Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 28 of these.77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 214 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 119 of these.55.6%119 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +2.3 percentage points

Uniform random selection of exactly 123 hypotheses has an expected article-match count of 17.7, an expected fraction of 14.4%.

The descriptive 95% interval for the fraction of article matches among recommendations is 13.8% to 32.8%, from 10000 joint resamples of the original questions.

Intervals were calculated for cumulative rules using explicit recommendations. Inspecting several rules on the same questions does not independently validate the best observed combination.

Inspect all 123 selected hypotheses

Hypotheses retain their original question and candidate order. Article scores do not determine their display order.

  1. How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Elevated circulating TNF in aged animals impairs intestinal regeneration by suppressing mitochondrial pyruvate oxidation in intestinal stem cells. This metabolic restriction directly limits their expansion after injury. Mechanism: TNF activates stem-cell TNFR1–NF-κB signaling, increasing pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase activity and inhibitory phosphorylation of pyruvate dehydrogenase, thereby reducing glucose-derived carbon entry into the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Prediction: Aged serum reduces glucose-derived mitochondrial carbon flux and organoid formation; stem-cell-specific TNFR1 deletion or blockade of pyruvate dehydrogenase inhibition restores both despite continued exposure to aged serum.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments
  2. Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Moderate physical activity delays ovarian ageing by lowering chronic insulin exposure and preventing excessive primordial-follicle activation. This preserves the follicle reserve through reduced oocyte PI3K–AKT signalling and sustained nuclear FOXO3. Mechanism: Improved skeletal-muscle insulin sensitivity reduces compensatory hyperinsulinaemia, decreasing insulin-receptor signalling in primordial oocytes. Reduced AKT-mediated FOXO3 phosphorylation maintains follicle dormancy and slows reserve depletion. Prediction: In initially hyperinsulinaemic mice, exercise should reduce primordial-oocyte AKT phosphorylation, retain nuclear FOXO3 and extend the age of last successful reproduction. Maintaining sedentary-range insulin exposure during training under matched glycaemia should abolish these benefits, whereas lowering insulin in sedentary animals should reproduce them.

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  3. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Elevated lipoprotein-associated C16:0 ceramide acts as a circulating driver of cellular senescence and accelerates organismal functional decline. Mechanism: Delivery of C16:0 ceramide to recipient cells increases mitochondrial ceramide, impairs respiratory function and raises mitochondrial reactive oxygen species. Subsequent DNA damage activates p53–p21 and persistent senescence. Prediction: Lipoproteins enriched with C16:0 ceramide at age-relevant concentrations induce persistent senescence more strongly than otherwise matched particles containing very-long-chain ceramides; recipient-cell mitochondrial ceramide clearance prevents this effect and protects tissue function during chronic exposure.

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  4. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Circulating ANGPTL2 drives endothelial senescence and thereby accelerates vascular and systemic ageing. Its effects require sustained inflammatory signaling within endothelial cells. Mechanism: ANGPTL2 engages integrin α5β1 and activates Rac1-dependent oxidative stress and NF-κB signaling. The resulting persistent DNA-damage response activates p53–p21 and reinforces inflammatory secretion. Prediction: Selective depletion of ANGPTL2 from aged plasma reduces its senescence-inducing activity in endothelial cultures, and physiological add-back restores it; endothelial disruption of integrin α5β1 signaling blocks the response.

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  5. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated elevation of circulating activin A causally promotes senescence in tissue stromal cells and accelerates functional decline. Sustained exposure converts a reversible stress response into stable cell-cycle arrest. Mechanism: Activin A activates ACVR2A/ACVR2B–ACVR1B receptor complexes and SMAD2/3 signaling, inducing p15 and p21. Prolonged signaling establishes persistent arrest and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: Maintaining circulating activin A at concentrations measured in old animals induces persistent senescence and functional impairment in young animals; stromal-cell-specific ACVR1B deletion prevents these effects despite equivalent circulating exposure.

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  6. Can a microbiota-derived factor directly cause the cellular dysfunction and progressive tissue remodeling characteristic of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and if so, through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    A microbiota-derived proapoptotic peptide, such as corisin, initiates pulmonary fibrosis by repeatedly killing alveolar type II epithelial cells. Sustained peptide exposure causes epithelial loss faster than regenerative replacement. Mechanism: The peptide activates mitochondrial apoptosis in alveolar type II cells, compromising alveolar repair and promoting profibrotic signaling that activates fibroblasts and increases extracellular matrix deposition. Prediction: Purified peptide at concentrations measured in diseased lungs induces epithelial apoptosis before progressive collagen accumulation in microbiota-free experimental models. Peptide neutralization or epithelial-specific inhibition of mitochondrial apoptosis prevents both effects despite equivalent exposure.

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  7. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Chronic IL-1 signaling instructs aged hematopoietic stem cells to enter a megakaryocyte-primed state, reducing their contribution to erythropoiesis. Mechanism: Persistent IL-1R–MYD88–NF-κB signaling increases accessibility and activity of megakaryocytic regulatory elements before lineage commitment, favoring subsequent platelet-producing differentiation. Prediction: Inducible hematopoietic Il1r1 deletion in aged animals shifts the output of individual multipotent clones toward erythroid cells despite an unchanged aged niche. Sustained downstream NF-κB activation prevents this rescue.

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  8. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Ageing increases FLI1 activity relative to KLF1 in progenitors retaining both erythroid and megakaryocytic potential, redirecting their differentiation toward platelet-producing megakaryocytes. Mechanism: Increased FLI1 occupancy favors megakaryocytic regulatory elements and antagonizes the KLF1-dependent erythroid program, changing how shared factors such as GATA1 activate lineage-specific genes. Prediction: Partial FLI1 suppression in aged, clonally tracked bipotent progenitors restores erythroid output at the expense of megakaryocytic output without selectively killing megakaryocytic cells. KLF1 suppression abolishes this rescue.

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  9. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Ageing increases MPL receptor signaling sensitivity in megakaryocyte-primed stem cells, selectively expanding their contribution to blood production and thereby reducing the relative erythroid contribution. Mechanism: Reduced expression of the signaling inhibitor LNK, encoded by SH2B3, amplifies thrombopoietin–MPL–JAK2–STAT5 signaling and preferentially maintains or expands platelet-biased clones. Prediction: Restoring physiological LNK expression in aged stem cells normalizes thrombopoietin responses and reduces the abundance of platelet-biased clones. Clonal tracking shows altered clone contributions with little change in each clone's intrinsic lineage preference, distinguishing selection from fate reprogramming.

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  10. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Aged osteocytes detect loading but fail to release sufficient prostaglandin E2 because connexin-43 hemichannel opening is impaired. Selective stimulation of the downstream EP4 receptor restores the anabolic response. Mechanism: Defective connexin-43-dependent prostaglandin release interrupts paracrine signaling between mechanically stimulated osteocytes and bone-forming cells. Prediction: Aged bone retains early loading-induced calcium signals but exhibits reduced extracellular prostaglandin E2. Local EP4 agonism restores the incremental bone-formation response to loading, whereas increasing calcium entry alone does not.

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  11. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Persistent sclerostin expression in aged osteocytes prevents mechanical loading from activating sufficient Wnt signaling in osteoblast-lineage cells. Sclerostin neutralization restores responsiveness to loading. Mechanism: An age-associated failure to repress Sost maintains inhibition of LRP5/6-mediated Wnt signaling despite intact upstream mechanical sensing. Prediction: Aged bone shows normal early calcium and prostaglandin responses but fails to suppress Sost or activate osteoblastic Wnt targets. Sclerostin neutralization restores the additional formation attributable to loading, beyond its effect in unloaded bone.

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  12. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-related loss of functional PIEZO1 channels in osteocytes reduces mechanically evoked calcium signals and limits loading-induced bone formation. Pharmacological sensitization of residual PIEZO1 restores the anabolic response. Mechanism: Reduced PIEZO1 activity weakens calcium-dependent signaling that normally suppresses sclerostin and activates osteoblast-supporting Wnt signaling. Prediction: At matched tissue strain, aged bone shows reduced osteocyte calcium responses; a PIEZO1 agonist restores both these responses and loading-induced cortical bone formation, with rescue abolished by osteocyte-specific Piezo1 deletion.

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  13. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Loss of lysosomal acidity initiates senescence by redistributing redox-active iron from lysosomes to the nucleus. Nuclear iron converts basal hydrogen peroxide into locally damaging radicals, producing persistent DNA lesions. Mechanism: Impaired lysosomal acidification disrupts iron sequestration and promotes lysosomal membrane permeabilization. Released labile iron accumulates near chromatin, driving oxidative base damage and strand breaks that activate the ATM–p53–p21 pathway. Prediction: Lysosomal deacidification should precede increased nuclear labile iron and DNA damage. A nucleus-targeted iron chelator should suppress DNA lesions and durable cell-cycle arrest despite continued lysosomal dysfunction, whereas an equivalent mitochondria-targeted chelator should provide substantially less protection.

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  14. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Defective RNA-processing homeostasis induces senescence by allowing persistent RNA–DNA hybrids to accumulate at transcribed genes. These hybrids create transcription–replication conflicts that generate DNA breaks. Mechanism: Disrupted assembly or nuclear localization of RNA-processing factors impairs cotranscriptional RNA packaging. Persistent R-loops obstruct replication forks, generating ATR activation, fork collapse, and a sustained senescence-associated DNA damage response. Prediction: RNA-processing disruption should increase RNase H-sensitive hybrids before DNA breaks, with damage enriched at highly transcribed loci. Nuclear expression of catalytically active RNase H1, but not an inactive control, should reduce locus-associated damage and durable arrest without restoring the broader RNA-processing defect.

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  15. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Mitochondrial metabolic dysfunction causes senescence by limiting aspartate-dependent nucleotide synthesis rather than primarily by increasing oxidants. Resulting nucleotide insufficiency converts ordinary DNA replication into persistent genomic stress. Mechanism: Impaired mitochondrial electron transport restricts aspartate production and de novo nucleotide synthesis. Depleted or imbalanced deoxynucleotide pools slow replication forks, promote fork collapse, and engage ATR–CHK1 followed by sustained p53–p21 signaling. Prediction: In proliferating cells, nucleotide depletion should precede replication-fork slowing and DNA breaks. Balanced deoxynucleoside supplementation should restore fork progression and reduce subsequent senescence despite persistent mitochondrial dysfunction, whereas mitochondrial antioxidant treatment should fail if nucleotide pools remain depleted.

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  16. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Circulating oxidized LDL that increases with age actively drives vascular cellular ageing through LOX-1 signaling. Its removal reverses endothelial dysfunction before stable senescence develops. Mechanism: Oxidized LDL activates LOX-1-dependent oxidative stress, reduces nitric oxide availability, and triggers DNA damage and inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Selective oxidized-LDL depletion from older-donor plasma restores endothelial nitric oxide production and reduces persistent senescence after exposure; add-back at the original concentration reinstates both effects. Native LDL matched for particle number does not reproduce the phenotype, and LOX-1 disruption prevents it.

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  17. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated accumulation of uptake-accessible extracellular mitochondrial DNA actively propagates inflammatory cellular ageing. Removing the circulating DNA reverses innate immune activation and prevents secondary senescence, although it may not reverse senescence already established in recipient tissues. Mechanism: Internalized mitochondrial DNA activates endosomal TLR9 and, when delivered to the cytosol, cGAS–STING signaling, causing inflammatory secretion that induces senescence in neighboring cells. Prediction: Selective mitochondrial-DNA depletion from older-donor plasma reduces innate immune activation and the ability of exposed immune-cell conditioned medium to induce persistent fibroblast arrest. Add-back in the original carrier form restores these effects, with pathway-specific receptor disruption identifying the required DNA-sensing route.

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  18. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 4 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Elevated circulating activin A in older adults directly suppresses skeletal-muscle regenerative capacity and promotes a senescence-like state in muscle progenitors. This functional burden is substantially reversible by transient activin A neutralization. Mechanism: Excess activin A activates activin type II receptors and SMAD2/3 signaling, increasing cell-cycle inhibitors and suppressing myogenic differentiation. Prediction: Activin A neutralization in older-donor plasma restores progenitor expansion, differentiation, and subsequent tissue repair, while concentration-matched add-back abolishes rescue. Recovery after washout would distinguish reversible signaling-dependent suppression from irreversible progenitor depletion.

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  19. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    In old mice with age-depleted Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, restoring a defined butyrate-producing strain will suppress inflammaging and improve physical function. Butyrate supplementation will reproduce these benefits through HCAR2-dependent regulation of intestinal macrophages. Mechanism: Microbial butyrate activates macrophage HCAR2, reducing NF-κB signaling and inflammatory cytokine production and thereby limiting systemic inflammation. Prediction: The strain and colon-targeted butyrate will reduce circulating IL-6 and TNF and improve frailty scores and grip strength in aged controls, but these benefits will be substantially attenuated by macrophage-specific Hcar2 deletion despite comparable intestinal butyrate exposure.

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  20. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Restoring an age-depleted, indole-3-propionic-acid-producing Clostridium sporogenes strain will improve healthspan in old mice by repairing intestinal barrier function. Its metabolite indole-3-propionic acid will be sufficient to reproduce the effect. Mechanism: Indole-3-propionic acid activates epithelial pregnane X receptor, strengthening barrier function and reducing microbial-product translocation that drives systemic innate immune activation. Prediction: Wild-type bacteria will reduce intestinal permeability, circulating microbial products, inflammatory cytokines and frailty more effectively than a colonization-matched metabolite-deficient strain. Metabolite supplementation will rescue the deficient strain's effects, whereas epithelial Pxr deletion will block the rescue.

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  21. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Replenishing an age-depleted Bifidobacterium longum strain that produces indole-3-lactic acid will suppress inflammaging and preserve physical function in old mice. The benefit will require metabolite-dependent activation of an intestinal AhR–IL-22 repair pathway. Mechanism: Indole-3-lactic acid activates aryl hydrocarbon receptor in intestinal group 3 innate lymphoid cells, increasing IL-22-mediated epithelial repair and reducing chronic exposure to microbial inflammatory signals. Prediction: The producer strain and purified metabolite will improve barrier integrity and longitudinal frailty scores, whereas an otherwise matched production-deficient strain will not. Disrupting AhR in group 3 innate lymphoid cells or neutralizing IL-22 will eliminate these benefits despite maintained metabolite exposure.

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  22. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Aging reduces injury-induced neuronal reprogramming by making Müller glial chromatin less accessible to proneural transcription factors. This creates a cell-intrinsic barrier to neuronal fate conversion. Mechanism: Age-dependent stabilization of repressive chromatin at neuronal regulatory elements prevents reprogramming factors such as ASCL1 from activating a neurogenic program. Prediction: With injury severity and ASCL1 expression matched, aged Müller glia would show reduced accessibility and ASCL1 occupancy at neuronal enhancers. Targeted reopening of those enhancers would restore lineage-traced neuronal conversion despite an unchanged aged inflammatory environment.

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  23. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Aging suppresses retinal neuronal reprogramming because injury elicits a prolonged inflammatory response that maintains Müller glia in a reactive state. Mechanism: Persistent microglial cytokine production sustains NF-κB and STAT3 signaling in Müller glia, favoring reactive gliosis over neuronal differentiation. Prediction: Transient, post-injury inhibition of microglial cytokine production or Müller glial inflammatory signaling would preferentially restore conversion in aged retinas. Conversely, an aged microglial secretome would suppress conversion in young retinal preparations, with rescue following cytokine neutralization.

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  24. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden after development causes premature multisystem ageing and shortens lifespan in a large mammal by impairing oxidative phosphorylation. Mechanism: Pathogenic mutations compromise respiratory-chain function, reducing ATP production and causing progressive failure in tissues with high energy demands. Prediction: Respiratory impairment precedes functional decline, and mutation burden predicts ageing phenotypes through its effect on respiratory capacity. An intervention that restores respiratory function without lowering mutation burden delays decline and improves survival.

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  25. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden causes premature ageing and shortened lifespan only when pathogenic variants clonally expand beyond functional heteroplasmy thresholds in enough cells. Mechanism: Intracellular expansion of damaging variants produces a mosaic of respiratory-deficient cells; organ function deteriorates when the affected cellular fraction exceeds tissue-specific tolerances. Prediction: Among animals with similar bulk mutation burdens, decline and survival track the fraction of cells carrying high-heteroplasmy pathogenic variants. Animals with many dispersed low-heteroplasmy mutations remain comparatively healthy.

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  26. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Enhancing lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA) activity in aged hair follicle stem cells will promote exit from quiescence and restore entry into the growth phase. Mechanism: Increased conversion of pyruvate to lactate regenerates cytosolic NAD+, sustaining the glycolytic flux required for stem-cell activation and subsequent progenitor expansion. Prediction: Stem-cell-specific LDHA enhancement will increase glycolytic flux before proliferation and accelerate hair regrowth. A catalytically inactive LDHA control will fail, while an independent intervention that restores cytosolic NAD+ recycling will reproduce the effect.

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  27. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Transient enhancement of β-catenin transcriptional activity in aged follicular stem and hair-germ cells will overcome an intrinsic activation threshold and restore hair production. Mechanism: Nuclear β-catenin activates TCF/LEF-dependent transcription, initiating the progenitor proliferation and differentiation program needed for the resting-to-growth transition. Prediction: A brief, lineage-restricted β-catenin pulse will restore anagen and hair-shaft production even during extracellular Wnt inhibition. Disrupting β-catenin–TCF/LEF transcriptional coupling will eliminate this rescue.

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  28. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Excess adiposity promotes osteoarthritis by increasing adipocyte-derived complement factor D, also called adipsin, which amplifies complement activation within damaged joints. Blocking this adipose-to-joint complement pathway will reduce cartilage degeneration. Mechanism: Circulating factor D supports alternative-pathway complement amplification on injured cartilage, increasing C5a-mediated inflammation and C5b-9 deposition on chondrocytes. Sublytic C5b-9 induces cartilage-degrading enzymes, while stronger activation causes cell death. Prediction: Adipocyte-specific factor D deletion will lower joint complement deposition and cartilage damage without reducing fat mass. Restoring circulating catalytically active factor D, but not an inactive variant, will reverse protection; chondrocyte resistance to membrane attack complex formation will attenuate the cartilage response despite persistent circulating factor D.

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  29. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    IL-6 released by senescent adipose stromal cells promotes osteoarthritis through IL-6 trans-signaling in synovial fibroblasts. Selectively disrupting this pathway will reduce synovitis and cartilage destruction without requiring weight loss. Mechanism: Adipose-derived IL-6 complexes with soluble IL-6 receptor and activates gp130–STAT3 signaling in synovial fibroblasts, increasing CCL2 and matrix-degrading enzymes. Recruitment of inflammatory monocytes sustains a joint-local inflammatory feedback loop. Prediction: Adipose-stromal-cell-specific Il6 deletion or joint-local inhibition of IL-6 trans-signaling will reduce fibroblast STAT3 activation, monocyte recruitment, and cartilage loss at matched adiposity. Physiological IL-6–soluble-receptor replacement will reverse the effect of adipose Il6 deletion, but not protection from fibroblast-specific gp130 deletion.

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  30. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated mitochondrial damage in granulosa cells initiates ovarian inflammation by releasing mitochondrial DNA into the cytosol. The resulting cGAS–STING activation propagates inflammatory signaling to neighboring follicular cells and promotes follicular atresia. Mechanism: Impaired mitochondrial quality control permits mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS–STING–TBK1/IRF3 and NF-κB. Secreted type I interferons and inflammatory cytokines impair granulosa-cell steroidogenesis and oocyte support. Prediction: Inducible granulosa-cell-specific deletion of cGAS or STING after follicle formation reduces inflammation and preserves follicle survival and steroidogenesis despite persistent mitochondrial respiratory defects. Cytosolic mitochondrial DNA accumulation precedes cytokine induction, distinguishing this mechanism from inflammation secondary to follicular death.

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  31. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Chronic mitochondrial oxidant production in ovarian stromal cells initiates a senescence-associated inflammatory secretory program that progressively damages otherwise functional follicles. The stromal response sustains ovarian decline after the initiating mitochondrial stress has subsided. Mechanism: Mitochondrial reactive oxygen species induce persistent nuclear DNA damage and senescence, activating p38 MAPK and NF-κB-dependent cytokine secretion. Stromal cytokines recruit inflammatory cells, promote fibrosis, and impair follicular growth and steroidogenesis. Prediction: Selective clearance of senescent stromal cells after mitochondrial stress has been withdrawn restores follicular growth and lowers inflammation even when follicular mitochondrial function remains unchanged. Previously stressed stromal cells continue to impair healthy follicles in coculture, whereas blocking their inflammatory secretory program prevents this effect.

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  32. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Early mutation correction produces greater skeletal rescue because it preserves the osteogenic progenitor pool before progerin causes persistent senescence or progenitor depletion. Late correction restores function in surviving cells but cannot fully replenish lost bone-forming capacity. Mechanism: Cumulative progerin exposure reduces the abundance and clonogenic potential of skeletal progenitors, creating a cellular limitation that persists after mutation correction. Prediction: At matched correction efficiency and post-treatment follow-up, early-treated animals retain more clonogenic skeletal progenitors and achieve greater bone formation than late-treated animals. Supplementing corrected progenitors preferentially improves the late-treatment response.

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  33. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    In vivo correction of the HGPS-causing LMNA mutation in osteoblast-lineage cells rescues bone formation by reducing progerin-induced nuclear damage. This molecular and cellular rescue remains possible after skeletal abnormalities have developed. Mechanism: Corrected LMNA splicing lowers progerin abundance, restores nuclear organization, and reduces DNA-damage signaling, enabling osteoblast differentiation and matrix mineralization. Prediction: After treatment of established disease, corrected osteoblast-lineage cells show reduced progerin and DNA-damage markers followed by increased mineral apposition. Bone-targeted correction produces these benefits without requiring correction in other organs.

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  34. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 4 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Late mutation correction can restore bone-cell function while leaving a substantial mechanical deficit because established skeletal geometry and accumulated matrix damage require prolonged remodeling to reverse. Early treatment is more effective structurally because it prevents these defects during skeletal growth. Mechanism: Cellular recovery occurs faster than replacement of damaged matrix or reconstruction of cortical and trabecular architecture, producing a delay between molecular rescue and mechanical recovery. Prediction: With comparable progerin reduction and normalized bone-formation indices, late-treated animals retain greater cortical porosity, architectural abnormalities, and reduced fracture resistance than early-treated animals. Extended follow-up improves matrix quality more readily than established bone shape.

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  35. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Natural cis-regulatory variation at OsLOX3 causes differences in rice seed longevity by altering lipoxygenase abundance in mature seeds. Alleles that reduce seed-specific OsLOX3 expression extend survival during storage. Mechanism: Reduced lipoxygenase activity limits oxidation of polyunsaturated fatty acids, slowing membrane damage and the accumulation of reactive lipid-derived aldehydes. Prediction: Reciprocal replacement of the OsLOX3 promoter between short- and long-lived varieties reverses their longevity ranking in a shared genetic background, with lipid oxidation preceding viability loss. Seed-specific complementation restores the short-lived phenotype without changing dormancy.

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  36. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Natural coding or regulatory variants of OsPIMT1 determine seed longevity by changing the capacity to repair age-damaged proteins. Higher-activity alleles preserve proteins needed for successful germination. Mechanism: Protein L-isoaspartyl methyltransferase repairs abnormal isoaspartyl residues that accumulate during storage, maintaining enzyme function during hydrated storage intervals and early imbibition. Prediction: An allele swap increases post-storage germination and reduces protein isoaspartyl accumulation without reducing lipid oxidation. A catalytically inactive version fails to rescue longevity despite matching the protective allele's protein abundance.

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  37. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Natural coding or regulatory variation at OsALDH7 causes differences in rice seed longevity by altering detoxification of reactive aldehydes. Protective alleles reduce damage downstream of oxidative reactions rather than preventing their initiation. Mechanism: Greater aldehyde dehydrogenase capacity removes toxic carbonyl compounds during seed maturation and early rehydration, limiting covalent damage to proteins and other cellular components. Prediction: The protective allele improves storage survival and lowers aldehyde-derived protein adducts despite comparable initial lipid hydroperoxide levels. Catalytic inactivation abolishes protection, and controlled aldehyde exposure produces a stronger genotype difference than exposure to an oxidant that generates little aldehyde damage.

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  38. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Dihydrotestosterone exacerbates mitochondrial damage and senescence in susceptible scalp dermal papilla cells by promoting mitochondrial translocation of p66Shc. This creates a mitochondrial source of hydrogen peroxide that amplifies androgen-induced oxidative stress. Mechanism: Androgen receptor signaling activates a PKCβ-dependent pathway that phosphorylates p66Shc at Ser36, enabling its mitochondrial accumulation and oxidation of cytochrome c. The resulting hydrogen peroxide promotes membrane depolarization, DNA damage and p53–p21-mediated senescence. Prediction: Selective p66Shc depletion would reduce mitochondrial hydrogen peroxide, respiratory impairment and persistent senescence after dihydrotestosterone exposure. Re-expression of wild-type p66Shc, but not a Ser36 phosphorylation-deficient mutant, would restore these phenotypes despite comparable androgen receptor activation.

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  39. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Mitochondrial DNA released after initial dihydrotestosterone-induced injury activates a cGAS–STING inflammatory feedback loop that worsens mitochondrial dysfunction and stabilizes senescence. Mechanism: Cytosolic mitochondrial DNA activates cGAS–STING and downstream TBK1 and NF-κB signaling. The resulting inflammatory secretory program induces secondary mitochondrial oxidative stress in exposed cells and neighboring follicular support cells, sustaining senescence after the initial androgen insult. Prediction: Deleting cGAS or STING would preserve the early mitochondrial response to dihydrotestosterone but reduce delayed respiratory decline, inflammatory secretion and persistent senescence. Conditioned medium from exposed wild-type cells would induce more mitochondrial damage in untreated recipient cells than medium from exposed STING-deficient cells, after controlling for residual dihydrotestosterone.

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  40. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Dihydrotestosterone exacerbates follicular cell deterioration by impairing PINK1–Parkin-mediated clearance of damaged mitochondria. Defective mitochondrial turnover allows otherwise transient oxidative injury to become a self-sustaining senescence stimulus. Mechanism: Androgen receptor signaling compromises damage-induced PINK1 stabilization and Parkin recruitment, reducing selective mitophagy. Dysfunctional mitochondria accumulate, maintaining elevated reactive oxygen species and activating p53–p21 and p16–RB growth-arrest pathways. Prediction: Dihydrotestosterone would reduce mitophagic flux measured with a mitochondrial lysosomal-delivery reporter, even when mitochondrial damage is matched between conditions. Restoring PINK1–Parkin function would rescue respiration and persistent growth arrest, but that rescue would disappear when downstream autophagic delivery is blocked.

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  41. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Dihydrotestosterone suppresses SIRT3-dependent mitochondrial antioxidant protection in dermal papilla cells, making oxidative damage and senescence more severe. Loss of SIRT3 activity is a causal amplifier rather than merely a consequence of mitochondrial injury. Mechanism: Androgen receptor signaling lowers SIRT3 abundance or activity, increasing SOD2 acetylation and reducing superoxide detoxification. Accumulating mitochondrial superoxide damages respiratory machinery and activates a persistent DNA-damage response. Prediction: Reduced SIRT3 activity and increased SOD2 acetylation would precede respiratory failure. Catalytically active SIRT3, but not an inactive mutant, would rescue mitochondrial function and senescence; an acetylation-resistant SOD2 variant would reproduce a substantial part of that rescue without suppressing androgen receptor signaling.

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  42. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Defective mitophagy in colonic CD4+ T cells induces pathogenic senescence in ulcerative colitis by allowing damaged mitochondria to release DNA into the cytosol. The resulting senescent cells causally worsen epithelial injury through persistent inflammatory secretion. Mechanism: Impaired PINK1–Parkin mitochondrial clearance causes cytosolic mitochondrial DNA accumulation, cGAS–STING activation, and sustained DNA-damage signaling that establishes a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: Restoring mitophagy or deleting cGAS specifically in CD4+ T cells should prevent senescence and attenuate experimental colitis. Transfer of viable, established senescent T cells should restore disease severity despite correction of the initiating mitophagy defect.

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  43. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    MSC-EVs alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging by restoring lysosomal integrity and degradative capacity. This prevents cathepsin-dependent NLRP3 inflammasome activation and interrupts IL-1β-driven inflammation and secondary senescence. Mechanism: TFEB-dependent lysosomal renewal reduces lysosomal membrane permeabilization, cytosolic cathepsin activity, and NLRP3–caspase-1 signaling. Prediction: TFEB depletion abolishes EV-mediated reductions in lysosomal leakage, mature IL-1β, and senescence, while NLRP3 deletion restores downstream protection. Benefits persist after cGAS deletion and correlate with lysosomal repair rather than mitochondrial DNA clearance.

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  44. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    MSC-EVs alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging by activating an NRF2-dependent antioxidant response in recipient skin cells. Increased glutathione synthesis and peroxide detoxification prevent oxidative damage from sustaining senescence, inflammation, and collagen breakdown. Mechanism: NRF2 activation induces GCLC, GCLM, and other antioxidant defenses, reducing lipid peroxidation and redox-sensitive stress signaling. Prediction: NFE2L2 deletion abolishes EV-induced antioxidant gene expression and tissue protection, while restoring glutathione availability partially rescues the phenotype. Protection remains detectable when PINK1-dependent mitophagy is disrupted and precedes any change in mitochondrial abundance.

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  45. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    MSC-EVs alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging primarily by delivering functional miR-146a to recipient cells. Repression of IRAK1 and TRAF6 weakens NF-κB-dependent inflammatory feedback, reducing paracrine senescence and matrix-degrading enzyme production. Mechanism: EV-associated miR-146a enters recipient-cell silencing complexes and represses the IRAK1–TRAF6–NF-κB pathway. Prediction: EVs depleted of miR-146a lose protection at matched particle dose and uptake, and restoring miR-146a restores activity. Recipient cells expressing miR-146a-resistant IRAK1 and TRAF6 remain inflammatory despite treatment, whereas mitochondrial damage and UV photoproduct burden need not decrease.

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  46. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Mesenchymal stromal cell–derived extracellular vesicles (MSC-EVs) alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging by restoring PINK1–Parkin-dependent mitophagy in keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts. Clearance of damaged mitochondria reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA, suppressing cGAS–STING signaling and the inflammatory reinforcement of cellular senescence. Mechanism: MSC-EVs increase mitochondrial delivery to lysosomes, reducing mitochondrial DNA leakage and downstream STING–TBK1–IRF3 signaling. Prediction: Protection is lost after PINK1 or PRKN disruption despite equivalent EV uptake; cGAS deletion rescues the inflammatory phenotype downstream of defective mitophagy. Increased mitophagic flux precedes reduced cytosolic mitochondrial DNA, senescence, and collagen degradation.

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  47. Does the transmembrane protein investigated in this study causally regulate cellular senescence and age-related tissue pathology, and through what signaling mechanism?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon

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    The investigated transmembrane protein amplifies senescence-associated inflammation and its spread to neighboring cells, while being dispensable for the initial senescent arrest. Blocking it after senescence is established reduces age-related tissue pathology. Mechanism: The protein facilitates STING trafficking or activation, enhancing TBK1–IRF3 and NF-κB signaling in response to cytosolic DNA. Prediction: Post-arrest depletion reduces inflammatory secretion and conditioned-medium-induced senescence in recipient cells while preserving donor-cell arrest and viability. STING loss eliminates the protein-dependent inflammatory effect, and downstream activation restores it.

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  48. Does the transmembrane protein investigated in this study causally regulate cellular senescence and age-related tissue pathology, and through what signaling mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon

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    The investigated transmembrane protein promotes cellular senescence by sustaining growth signaling after cellular damage. Its loss reduces senescence-associated inflammation and age-related tissue pathology. Mechanism: The protein activates PI3K–AKT–mTORC1 signaling, sustaining anabolic activity and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) during damage-induced cell-cycle arrest. Prediction: Inducible loss of the protein reduces mTORC1 activity, persistent senescence markers, and SASP output under matched damage conditions; constitutively active Rheb restores these effects. Deletion in aged animals improves tissue function without increasing proliferation of damaged cells.

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  49. Can an unannotated protein product that is altered in Alzheimer's disease causally regulate cellular function relevant to disease pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    An unannotated microprotein depleted in Alzheimer's disease neurons normally supports lysosomal acidification, and its loss causes defective clearance of aggregation-prone tau. Mechanism: The microprotein stabilizes assembly of the lysosomal V-ATPase, maintaining the acidic environment required for proteolysis. Prediction: Selective microprotein depletion raises lysosomal pH before increasing insoluble tau, without changing the annotated protein at its locus. Restoring the microprotein rescues both phenotypes, and V-ATPase inhibition abolishes that rescue.

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  50. What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?

    Hypothesis 4 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Iron-dependent lipid peroxidation actively executes motor-neuron death in SOD1G93A mice and contributes to shortened survival. Mechanism: Mutant SOD1-associated oxidative stress overwhelms neuronal glutathione–GPX4 defenses, allowing iron-catalyzed oxidation of membrane phospholipids to trigger ferroptosis. Prediction: Inducible motor-neuron-specific ACSL4 deletion reduces oxidized phospholipids before neuronal loss, preserves innervation and extends survival despite continued inflammatory activation.

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  51. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Progerin-induced loss of lamina-associated heterochromatin promotes cytoplasmic chromatin accumulation, activating cGAS–STING signaling that reinforces senescence and its inflammatory secretory phenotype. Suppressing this pathway after disease onset will reduce tissue dysfunction and extend survival in a progeria mouse model. Mechanism: Defective chromatin anchoring and nuclear-envelope instability expose genomic DNA to cytoplasmic cGAS, driving STING–TBK1–IRF3 and NF-κB signaling. Prediction: Inducible cGAS deletion will reduce inflammatory secretion and improve vascular pathology and survival despite persistent progerin expression and nuclear deformation; restoring STING signaling downstream of cGAS will reverse the cellular benefit.

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  52. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Loss of heterochromatic repression in progeria derepresses LINE-1 retrotransposons, whose reverse-transcribed DNA activates innate immune signaling and accelerates senescence. Blocking LINE-1 reverse transcription will reduce inflammation and extend lifespan without requiring restoration of nuclear architecture. Mechanism: Reduced H3K9me3-dependent silencing permits LINE-1 expression and cytoplasmic accumulation of LINE-1-derived DNA, activating cGAS–STING and inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Genetic disruption of LINE-1 reverse-transcriptase activity will reduce cytoplasmic LINE-1 DNA, inflammatory secretion, and secondary senescence while leaving nuclear rupture frequency largely unchanged. Reverse-transcriptase-competent, but not catalytically inactive, LINE-1 will restore these phenotypes, distinguishing this mechanism from leakage of genomic chromatin.

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  53. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Disrupted chromatin organization in progeria redistributes BRD4 to newly activated inflammatory enhancers, establishing a transcriptional program that maintains the senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Selectively disrupting these enhancers will reduce paracrine senescence and ameliorate disease. Mechanism: Increased enhancer acetylation recruits BRD4 and transcriptional elongation machinery to inflammatory genes, sustaining secretion independently of the initiating nuclear damage. Prediction: BRD4 occupancy and H3K27 acetylation will increase at specific secretory-program enhancers before maximal cytokine secretion. CRISPR interference at these enhancers will suppress secretion and conditioned-medium-induced senescence without correcting nuclear morphology; appropriately targeted BRD4 inhibition will improve pathology and survival in progeria mice.

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  54. What developmentally established epigenetic mechanism preserves metabolic readiness for rapid immune activation, and how is it disrupted during ageing?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Immune-cell development establishes poised metabolic enhancers that retain H3K4me1 during quiescence and rapidly acquire H3K27ac after stimulation. Ageing disrupts maintenance of this enhancer state, preventing otherwise intact activation signals from inducing sufficient metabolic capacity. Mechanism: KMT2C/KMT2D-dependent enhancer priming lowers the threshold for stimulus-dependent p300 recruitment at genes controlling glucose uptake, amino-acid transport and mitochondrial expansion. Prediction: Aged resting cells lose enhancer H3K4me1 before losing promoter competence, and locus-specific enhancer re-priming restores stimulus-induced H3K27ac, nutrient uptake and proliferation even when promoter methylation is unchanged.

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  55. What developmentally established epigenetic mechanism preserves metabolic readiness for rapid immune activation, and how is it disrupted during ageing?

    Hypothesis 4 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Developmental TET activity creates persistently hypomethylated regulatory elements at metabolic genes, preserving their responsiveness in resting lymphocytes. Age-related remethylation blocks activation-dependent transcription-factor binding and reduces metabolic readiness. Mechanism: Stable DNA hypomethylation permits inducible factors such as MYC to occupy metabolic regulatory elements rapidly after stimulation; declining TET-mediated maintenance permits inhibitory methylation to accumulate. Prediction: Targeted demethylation of affected elements in aged cells restores inducible factor binding and metabolic activation, whereas catalytically inactive TET recruitment does not; targeted remethylation produces the reciprocal defect in young cells.

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  56. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Ovarian hormone decline promotes peripheral inflammation that redirects tryptophan metabolism toward circulating kynurenine, creating a toxic peripheral-to-brain metabolic signal. Female midlife vulnerability results when brain kynurenine metabolism favors quinolinic acid production over protective metabolites. Mechanism: Peripheral immune-cell IDO1 activity elevates blood kynurenine, which crosses the blood–brain barrier through LAT1. Microglial conversion to quinolinic acid increases NMDA-receptor-mediated calcium stress, mitochondrial injury, and secondary senescence-associated signaling in neighboring glia. Prediction: Peripheral-restricted IDO1 inhibition would reduce brain quinolinic acid and improve mitochondrial function and cognition; kynurenine replacement would reverse these benefits. Microglial KMO deletion would remain protective despite kynurenine replacement, locating the essential downstream step within the brain.

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  57. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Loss of ovarian endocrine support during female midlife induces mitochondrial DNA release from peripheral tissues, activating a senescence-promoting inflammatory relay at the blood–brain barrier. This vascular relay drives brain dysfunction without requiring circulating mitochondrial DNA to enter brain tissue. Mechanism: Circulating mitochondrial DNA enters brain endothelial endosomes and activates TLR9–NF-κB signaling. Endothelial senescence, impaired barrier function, and cytokine release subsequently induce glial mitochondrial stress and disrupt neuronal support. Prediction: Brain-endothelial-specific Tlr9 deletion would prevent vascular senescence, downstream glial dysfunction, and cognitive impairment despite persistently elevated circulating mitochondrial DNA. Selective removal of mitochondrial DNA from midlife plasma would reduce its endothelial toxicity.

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  58. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Female midlife ovarian decline expands senescent visceral-adipose stromal cells whose circulating IL-6 initiates a brain endothelial–glial inflammatory feedback loop. This loop maintains mitochondrial dysfunction and cognitive vulnerability after the initial peripheral trigger has subsided. Mechanism: Peripheral IL-6 combines with soluble IL-6 receptor to activate endothelial gp130–STAT3 trans-signaling. Endothelial inflammatory mediators induce astrocyte senescence and microglial activation, whose reciprocal signals sustain oxidative stress and impair neuronal energy support. Prediction: Inducible Il6 deletion in adipose stromal cells or selective blockade of IL-6 trans-signaling would prevent the transition despite continued estradiol decline. After dysfunction is established, combined peripheral blockade and interruption of astrocytic STAT3 signaling would outperform peripheral blockade alone, supporting a self-maintaining central loop.

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  59. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated loss of NAD+ impairs cardiac mitochondrial quality control through reduced SIRT1-dependent activation of the autophagy machinery. Restoring cardiomyocyte NAD+ will reverse established mitochondrial and contractile defects only when SIRT1-mediated autophagosome formation is preserved. Mechanism: Reduced SIRT1 activity increases inhibitory acetylation of autophagy proteins, limiting the formation of autophagosomes capable of capturing damaged mitochondria. Prediction: NAD+ restoration will reduce autophagy-protein acetylation and improve mitochondrial degradation and cardiac function in aged control mice, but not in cardiomyocyte-specific Sirt1-deficient mice, even if NAD+ concentrations rise similarly.

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  60. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Persistent mTORC1 activation in aged cardiomyocytes suppresses TFEB-dependent lysosomal renewal, making terminal degradation the principal bottleneck in mitochondrial quality-control flux. Restoring TFEB activity will clear accumulated mitochondrial cargo and reverse cardiac dysfunction more effectively than increasing mitophagy initiation alone. Mechanism: Reduced TFEB nuclear activity lowers lysosomal degradative capacity, allowing mitochondrial cargo to accumulate despite continued recognition and sequestration. Prediction: Inducible TFEB activation in aged cardiomyocytes will increase lysosomal proteolysis and mitochondrial cargo clearance and improve relaxation despite unchanged initial mitochondrial ubiquitination. Increasing Parkin alone will instead increase sequestered cargo without comparable functional recovery.

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  61. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-dependent elevation of mitochondrial USP30 activity causes defective cardiac mitophagy by removing ubiquitin signals required to recognize damaged mitochondria. Cardiomyocyte-specific USP30 inhibition will restore mitochondrial turnover and reverse established cardiac dysfunction when downstream lysosomal capacity remains intact. Mechanism: USP30 counteracts PINK1–Parkin-mediated mitochondrial ubiquitination, reducing recruitment of mitophagy receptors and sequestration of damaged mitochondria. Prediction: In aged hearts, USP30 inhibition will restore mitochondrial ubiquitination, lysosome-dependent mitochondrial degradation, and diastolic function without increasing lysosomal abundance. These benefits will disappear after cardiomyocyte-specific Parkin deletion.

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  62. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Older-donor gut communities produce fewer tryptophan-derived aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists, reducing mucosal repair and antimicrobial defense. This metabolite deficit causes barrier leakage and secondary systemic inflammation. Mechanism: Reduced microbial indole signaling lowers aryl hydrocarbon receptor activation in mucosal immune cells, diminishing IL-22-dependent epithelial repair and protective gene expression. Prediction: Recipients of older-donor communities show reduced indole metabolites, mucosal aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity, and IL-22 signaling. Supplementation with a defined microbial agonist restores barrier function and improves metabolic outcomes, but this rescue is lost after relevant immune-cell aryl hydrocarbon receptor deletion or IL-22 blockade.

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  63. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated differences in microbial bile acid transformation generate a bile acid pool that causally disrupts intestinal barrier regulation and systemic glucose metabolism. These effects arise from altered intestinal FXR and TGR5 signaling. Mechanism: Changes in microbial bile salt deconjugation and secondary bile acid synthesis alter epithelial transcription, enteroendocrine GLP-1 secretion, and intestinal–hepatic metabolic signaling. Prediction: Older-donor microbiota transfer produces a distinct bile acid profile alongside barrier and metabolic abnormalities. Reconstituting that bile acid profile reproduces the abnormalities in recipients of younger-donor microbiota, while targeted inhibition of the responsible microbial transformations prevents them; receptor-specific perturbations identify the required signaling pathway.

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  64. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Gut microbial communities from older human donors impair intestinal barrier function by producing less butyrate than communities from younger donors. Reduced epithelial butyrate availability causally alters mucosal gene expression and promotes systemic metabolic dysfunction. Mechanism: Loss of microbial butyrate production reduces colonocyte oxidative metabolism and protective hypoxia signaling, weakening junctional integrity and increasing translocation of inflammatory microbial products. Prediction: Under identical diets, germ-free mice colonized with older-donor communities exhibit lower colonic butyrate, increased permeability, and impaired glucose tolerance. Restoring microbial butyrate production rescues these outcomes, whereas matched communities carrying a disrupted butyrate-synthesis pathway do not.

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  65. Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    The nominated commensal prolongs lifespan and preserves healthspan primarily by preventing age-related intestinal permeability and the resulting chronic innate immune activation. Barrier restoration precedes improvements in systemic molecular ageing signatures. Mechanism: Enhanced epithelial junction maintenance and mucus integrity reduce microbial-product translocation and sustained inflammatory signaling in distant tissues. Prediction: Barrier improvements precede reduced circulating microbial products, inflammation and frailty. An inducible epithelial-specific disruption of the implicated barrier pathway eliminates the intervention's benefits despite preserved commensal abundance and metabolite exposure.

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  66. Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    A commensal nominated by integrated human ageing profiles extends remaining lifespan and preserves physical function when administered alive to aged mice. Its benefit requires ongoing microbial metabolism rather than exposure to inert microbial components. Mechanism: Viable organisms produce metabolites that improve intestinal barrier integrity, reduce systemic inflammation and slow functional decline. Prediction: Live organisms reproducibly improve survival, frailty and muscle performance relative to vehicle and heat-killed organisms under matched food intake. A metabolically impaired strain loses efficacy despite comparable intestinal abundance.

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  67. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Ageing reduces neurotrophic support from adipose stromal cells, causing sympathetic axon loss and insufficient norepinephrine delivery to subcutaneous white adipose tissue. This loss of local innervation limits the recruitment and maintenance of thermogenic beige adipocytes. Mechanism: Reduced stromal nerve growth factor production impairs sympathetic terminal maintenance, lowering cold-induced adrenergic stimulation of adjacent adipocytes. Prediction: Restoring stromal nerve growth factor in aged mice restores sympathetic axon density, local norepinephrine release, and cold-induced beige adipocytes; sympathetic denervation abolishes this rescue. Preserved responses to direct beta-adrenergic stimulation would distinguish this mechanism from adipocyte-intrinsic resistance.

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  68. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Ageing drives thermogenic adipocyte progenitors into a senescent state, limiting the supply of new beige adipocytes even when sympathetic stimulation remains adequate. Mechanism: Persistent p16INK4a-associated cell-cycle arrest reduces progenitor expansion, while progenitor-derived TGF-β promotes a fibrotic environment that inhibits thermogenic differentiation. Prediction: Lineage tracing reveals reduced progenitor-derived beige adipocyte formation in aged tissue under matched adrenergic stimulation. Selective removal of senescent progenitors followed by replacement with competent progenitors restores recruitment without changing sympathetic activity or mature-adipocyte adrenergic signaling.

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  69. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Direct AMPK activation extends lifespan by suppressing excessive TORC1-dependent protein synthesis during adulthood. In aged mammals, this produces a corresponding reduction in translational burden and accumulation of damaged proteins. Mechanism: AMPK inhibits TORC1 signaling, reducing energy-intensive translation and limiting production of proteins that exceed cellular folding capacity. Prediction: Maintaining TORC1 activity experimentally prevents drug-induced lifespan extension despite intact AMPK activation, while partial adult-onset inhibition of translation reproduces the benefit. Mammalian tissues show reduced translation and protein damage without substantial weight loss or reduced food intake.

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  70. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Direct AMPK activation extends lifespan primarily by increasing autophagic clearance of damaged cellular components. The same mechanism reduces age-associated protein aggregation in mammals. Mechanism: AMPK activates the conserved ULK1/Atg1 autophagy machinery, increasing lysosomal degradation and recycling. Prediction: Treatment increases autophagic flux before survival benefits appear, but adult-onset disruption of ULK1/Atg1 or essential autophagy genes abolishes lifespan extension despite preserved AMPK activation. Aged mice show reduced protein aggregation only when autophagy remains functional.

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  71. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Direct pharmacological activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is sufficient to extend adult lifespan in evolutionarily diverse organisms, including nematodes and flies, and improve metabolic resilience in aged mice. Mechanism: Binding to a conserved regulatory site activates AMPK without first causing energy depletion, shifting metabolism toward cellular maintenance. Prediction: A biochemically validated activator increases lifespan in worms and flies and improves insulin sensitivity in aged mice without lowering cellular ATP. These benefits disappear with an AMPK mutation that selectively prevents drug binding while preserving normal kinase function.

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  72. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Direct AMPK activation extends lifespan by improving mitochondrial quality rather than by transiently poisoning mitochondrial respiration. In aged mammals, sustained activation improves mitochondrial function and physical endurance. Mechanism: AMPK coordinates selective removal of damaged mitochondria with mitochondrial biogenesis, maintaining a healthier mitochondrial population. Prediction: Treatment improves mitochondrial turnover and respiratory reserve without an initial respiratory inhibition. Disrupting the induced mitochondrial turnover pathway eliminates lifespan and endurance benefits while leaving other AMPK-dependent metabolic responses intact.

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  73. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Excessive endoplasmic-reticulum–mitochondrial calcium transfer drives fibroblast senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma. Pharmacological disruption of the IP3R–GRP75–VDAC1 contact complex should reduce senescence-associated signaling and matrix production. Mechanism: Increased organelle coupling causes mitochondrial calcium overload, oxidative stress and persistent DNA damage, inducing a senescence-associated secretory phenotype that reinforces profibrotic signaling. Prediction: Patient-derived fibroblasts should show increased mitochondrial calcium uptake preceding senescence. Disrupting the complex should reduce these changes, whereas experimentally restoring mitochondrial calcium overload should negate the benefit without restoring organelle coupling.

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  74. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Excessive matrix stiffness maintains localized scleroderma through a fibroblast integrin–FAK–YAP/TAZ feedback loop that induces mitochondrial stress and senescence. Pharmacological FAK inhibition should weaken this loop and reduce established fibrotic activity. Mechanism: Stiff extracellular matrix promotes sustained mechanotransduction, contractility and metabolic demand, producing mitochondrial oxidative stress and senescence-associated secretion that further activates matrix-producing fibroblasts. Prediction: Patient fibroblasts cultured on compliant matrices should lose nuclear YAP/TAZ activity and subsequently show reduced mitochondrial stress and senescence. FAK inhibition should reproduce these effects on stiff matrices, while constitutively active YAP should prevent the rescue.

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  75. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Defective PINK1–Parkin-dependent mitophagy drives localized scleroderma by allowing damaged mitochondria to activate cGAS–STING signaling. Pharmacological STING inhibition should suppress the resulting senescence-associated inflammatory signaling and fibrosis. Mechanism: Impaired mitochondrial clearance permits mitochondrial DNA to accumulate in the cytosol, activating cGAS–STING and inflammatory signaling that maintains senescence and stimulates neighboring fibroblasts. Prediction: Restoring mitophagy or inhibiting STING should reduce inflammatory secretion and collagen production. Cytosolic mitochondrial DNA should persist during STING inhibition, while a STING agonist should restore downstream signaling after mitophagy rescue.

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  76. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Persistent endoplasmic-reticulum stress sustains a senescent, profibrotic fibroblast population through IRE1α RNase signaling. Pharmacological inhibition of this activity should reduce both senescence maintenance and extracellular-matrix deposition. Mechanism: Chronic protein-folding stress activates IRE1α-dependent RNA processing, maintaining stress and inflammatory programs that couple collagen secretory load to senescence-associated paracrine signaling. Prediction: An IRE1α RNase inhibitor and genetic disruption of its RNase activity should both reduce senescence markers and the ability of fibroblast-conditioned medium to induce collagen production in untreated cells, at exposures that preserve viability.

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  77. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis by compromising subchondral microvascular perfusion in joints already damaged by aging or injury. Repeated ischemia and reperfusion drive pathological bone remodeling that increases stress on overlying cartilage. Mechanism: Pressure-induced arteriolar remodeling and endothelial dysfunction reduce subchondral perfusion, causing osteocyte injury, abnormal bone turnover, and eventual sclerosis that disrupts cartilage load distribution. Prediction: Subchondral perfusion defects precede accelerated cartilage loss, and restoring local endothelial function protects cartilage despite persistent hypertension. Protection tracks normalization of bone remodeling rather than suppression of synovial inflammation.

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  78. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis by increasing the supply of inflammatory monocytes that are recruited into aged or injured joints. Persistent monocyte-derived macrophages amplify local tissue damage even after blood pressure normalizes. Mechanism: Hypertension-associated sympathetic activation stimulates bone marrow myelopoiesis and expands CCR2-positive monocytes; chemokines from susceptible joints recruit these cells, whose inflammatory mediators drive chondrocyte catabolism. Prediction: Lineage tracing reveals increased recruitment of marrow-derived macrophages before cartilage loss, and selective interruption of monocyte recruitment prevents hypertension-associated worsening without changing blood pressure. Monocytes from hypertensive donors produce greater joint damage than control monocytes after transfer into otherwise matched recipients.

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  79. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    In hypertension accompanied by renin–angiotensin system activation, angiotensin II directly amplifies cartilage degeneration through chondrocyte AT1 receptors. Aging or mechanical injury sensitizes chondrocytes to this catabolic signal. Mechanism: AT1 receptor activation stimulates NADPH oxidase, mitochondrial oxidative stress, and NF-κB signaling, increasing MMP13 and ADAMTS5 production while reducing cartilage matrix synthesis. Prediction: Inducible chondrocyte-specific AT1 receptor deletion prevents hypertension-associated cartilage loss without lowering blood pressure. At matched blood pressure, protection is stronger in angiotensin II–dependent hypertension than in a model without renin–angiotensin activation.

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  80. How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Serine scarcity causes senescence in rapidly dividing transferred antitumor T cells by restricting nucleotide synthesis during antigen-driven proliferation. Replication stress produces irreversible arrest and subsequent failure of population maintenance. Mechanism: Insufficient serine-derived one-carbon flux reduces purine and thymidylate synthesis, causing nucleotide imbalance, stalled replication forks, and DNA breaks. Persistent DNA-damage signaling activates the p53–p21 arrest program. Prediction: Nucleoside supplementation during serine deprivation prevents replication-fork slowing and restores proliferation after nutrient replenishment without normalizing glutathione or methyl-donor availability. Preferential susceptibility of actively cycling cells, with little protection from antioxidants, would favor nucleotide insufficiency over redox or epigenetic mechanisms.

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  81. How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Glucose scarcity drives adoptively transferred antitumor T cells into senescence when sustained energy stress converts adaptive AMPK signaling into persistent p38–p53–p21 activation. This durable cell-cycle arrest prevents expansion and replenishment of the transferred population. Mechanism: Reduced glycolytic ATP production elevates the AMP:ATP ratio, sustaining AMPK-dependent stress signaling and p38 activation. Persistent p53 stabilization induces CDKN1A/p21 and establishes an arrest that remains after glucose availability improves. Prediction: Under matched glucose deprivation, inducible disruption of the AMPK–p38 signaling connection prevents persistent p21 induction and restores proliferation after nutrient replenishment despite equivalent initial ATP depletion. Protection without correction of oxidative damage would favor energy-stress signaling over a primary redox mechanism.

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  82. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-related impairment of transcription termination drives polymerase readthrough across nearby architectural boundaries, redistributing cohesin and weakening insulation. The resulting contacts activate neighboring inflammatory genes and create a self-reinforcing transcriptional circuit. Mechanism: Defective cleavage or termination allows elongating RNA polymerase II to invade boundary regions, displace boundary-associated proteins, and shift cohesin positioning, exposing adjacent promoters to inappropriate enhancers. Prediction: Installing an efficient termination cassette upstream of an affected boundary should restore local architecture and reduce neighboring inflammatory transcription while preserving expression of the initiating gene. Degrading the readthrough RNA without stopping polymerase passage should fail to rescue the boundary.

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  83. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated methylation of methylation-sensitive CTCF motifs erodes selected domain boundaries and exposes inflammatory promoters to previously insulated enhancers. Boundary methylation therefore initiates, rather than simply reflects, age-related transcriptional activation. Mechanism: CpG methylation reduces CTCF occupancy at susceptible motifs, weakening cohesin arrest and allowing enhancer–promoter communication across former boundaries. Prediction: Targeted demethylation of affected boundary motifs in aged cells should restore CTCF occupancy, insulation, and transcriptional restraint without changing enhancer methylation. Deleting those motifs should abolish the rescue, whereas targeted methylation in young cells should reproduce the phenotype.

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  84. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-associated depletion of chromatin-bound HMGB2 removes local insulation around inflammatory and activation-related gene clusters. This permits architectural reorganization that makes these loci persistently accessible to activating enhancers. Mechanism: Loss of HMGB2-mediated DNA bending and boundary organization changes local CTCF positioning and clustering, merging regulatory neighborhoods that were previously separated. Prediction: Acute HMGB2 depletion in young cells should reproduce the specific boundary and contact changes observed in aged cells before inflammatory expression increases. Restoring chromatin-binding-competent HMGB2 should rescue both architecture and transcription, whereas a DNA-binding-defective mutant should not.

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  85. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Loss of lamin B1-dependent chromatin tethering during ageing releases inflammatory and activation-related loci from repressive peripheral domains. Their relocation into active nuclear compartments enables regulatory contacts that increase basal expression and responsiveness to stimulation. Mechanism: Declining lamin B1 disrupts selected lamina-associated domains, permitting formerly peripheral loci to associate with active enhancers and transcriptional hubs. Prediction: Retethering released loci to the nuclear lamina in aged cells should reverse their compartment associations and suppress activation despite persistent age-associated signaling. Matched tethering to an interior nuclear scaffold should not produce the same rescue.

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  86. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-dependent enrichment of membrane phospholipids with polyunsaturated fatty acids actively limits lifespan by increasing lipid peroxidation. ACSL4-dependent fatty-acid activation is a conserved regulatory bottleneck for this remodeling in species with comparable polyunsaturated lipid metabolism. Mechanism: ACSL4 supplies activated polyunsaturated fatty acids for membrane incorporation, increasing susceptibility to oxidative membrane damage and ferroptotic cell loss. Prediction: Adult-onset reduction of ACSL4 or its functional ortholog lowers membrane lipid peroxidation and extends lifespan across two species without reducing food intake. Restoring polyunsaturated phospholipid incorporation abolishes this benefit, whereas preventing downstream ferroptotic damage largely occludes it.

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  87. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    An age-associated decline in membrane monounsaturated fatty acids relative to saturated fatty acids actively constrains lifespan. Reduced stearoyl-CoA desaturase activity is the conserved regulator responsible. Mechanism: Insufficient fatty-acid desaturation increases endoplasmic-reticulum membrane saturation, triggering chronic membrane stress and impairing protein processing. Prediction: Moderate adult induction of stearoyl-CoA desaturase orthologs restores membrane unsaturation and extends lifespan across two species. Blocking monounsaturated-fatty-acid incorporation into phospholipids abolishes the benefit despite preserved incorporation into storage lipids.

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  88. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    An age-associated increase in the phosphatidylcholine-to-phosphatidylethanolamine ratio actively limits lifespan by restricting autophagic membrane function. Declining PCYT2-dependent phosphatidylethanolamine synthesis is a conserved control point. Mechanism: Reduced phosphatidylethanolamine availability impairs ATG8-family protein lipidation and autophagosome membrane dynamics, decreasing clearance of damaged cellular components. Prediction: Adult restoration of PCYT2 or its functional ortholog normalizes phospholipid balance, increases autophagic flux and extends lifespan across two species. Disrupting ATG8 lipidation eliminates lifespan extension despite successful correction of lipid composition.

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  89. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Age-related loss of microbial desaminotyrosine production reduces tonic type I interferon signaling, leaving pulmonary immune cells poorly prepared for influenza infection. Reconstituting this metabolic activity before infection restores antiviral protection. Mechanism: Insufficient microbial conversion of dietary flavonoids into desaminotyrosine lowers basal IFNAR-dependent expression of antiviral effectors in lung immune cells. Prediction: Under a controlled flavonoid diet, a desaminotyrosine-producing strain, but not an otherwise matched production-deficient mutant, restores basal lung interferon-stimulated gene expression and lowers influenza viral burden in recipients of aged microbiota. Metabolite supplementation reproduces the benefit, which requires host IFNAR signaling.

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  90. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Adventitial fibroblasts are the principal source of excess vascular collagen, but their fibrotic activation depends primarily on signals from mutant smooth-muscle cells rather than on their own LMNA mutation. Mechanism: Stressed mutant smooth-muscle cells activate fibroblast TGF-β–SMAD signaling, inducing myofibroblast differentiation and collagen synthesis. Prediction: Wild-type fibroblasts accumulate collagen when paired with mutant smooth-muscle cells, whereas mutant fibroblasts paired with corrected smooth-muscle cells show substantially less fibrosis. Fibroblast-specific TGF-β receptor inhibition suppresses lineage-traced collagen production without correcting medial cell loss.

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  91. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Progerin expression in medial vascular smooth-muscle cells directly causes elastic-matrix disorganization and medial cell loss, independently of mutations in the other vessel-wall compartments. Mechanism: Progerin-induced nuclear fragility impairs smooth-muscle-cell survival and elastic-matrix maintenance under pulsatile mechanical stress. Prediction: In layered vessels with independently controlled compartment genotypes, mutant smooth-muscle cells produce medial cell loss and elastic-matrix defects despite wild-type endothelium and adventitial fibroblasts. Smooth-muscle-specific LMNA correction rescues these defects under matched pressure and flow.

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  92. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Endothelial progerin independently initiates vascular inflammation by increasing leukocyte adhesion and transendothelial migration. Mechanism: Endothelial nuclear damage activates cGAS–STING and NF-κB signaling, increasing adhesion-molecule expression and compromising barrier integrity. Prediction: Vessels containing mutant endothelium and wild-type supporting layers exhibit increased leukocyte recruitment under matched flow. Endothelial-specific LMNA correction or STING inhibition reduces recruitment even when mutant smooth-muscle cells and fibroblasts remain present.

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  93. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra

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    Time-restricted feeding protects primarily by restoring the daily rhythm of renal sodium excretion and the blood-pressure decline during the rest phase. Reduced cumulative pressure load subsequently limits arterial stiffening and maladaptive cardiac remodeling. Mechanism: Feeding-time entrainment of renal tubular clocks shifts sodium-transporter activity and aldosterone responsiveness, improving sodium balance and reducing sustained vascular and ventricular mechanical stress. Prediction: With identical sodium and calorie intake, improved sodium-excretion rhythms and rest-phase blood pressure precede vascular improvement. Experimentally maintaining the unrestricted-fed blood-pressure profile abolishes protection during time-restricted feeding, while reproducing its pressure profile in unrestricted-fed animals recapitulates protection despite persistent gut permeability and inflammasome activation.

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  94. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Time-restricted feeding protects against accelerated cardiovascular ageing by restoring intestinal barrier integrity and reducing circulating microbial inflammatory products. Reduced endotoxin exposure suppresses vascular macrophage inflammasome activation and subsequent endothelial injury. Mechanism: A consistent feeding–fasting cycle restores intestinal epithelial clock function and tight-junction maintenance, reducing lipopolysaccharide translocation and TLR4-dependent priming of NLRP3–caspase-1–gasdermin D signaling in vascular macrophages. Prediction: Under matched caloric intake, restoring circulating lipopolysaccharide to unrestricted-feeding levels eliminates vascular protection despite preserved feeding rhythms. Intestinal barrier restoration in unrestricted-fed animals reproduces protection, and myeloid NLRP3 deletion prevents the adverse effect of lipopolysaccharide restoration.

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  95. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Time-restricted feeding protects through alignment of the endothelial circadian clock with the active phase, independently of fasting duration alone. Endothelial clock restoration preserves nitric oxide availability and prevents hypertension-driven arterial and cardiac remodeling. Mechanism: Active-phase feeding restores rhythmic endothelial BMAL1-dependent regulation of eNOS coupling and antioxidant defenses, reducing superoxide-mediated nitric oxide loss and vascular resistance. Prediction: Equal-duration active-phase feeding provides greater protection than rest-phase feeding at identical caloric intake. Adult endothelial-specific Bmal1 deletion abolishes this advantage despite comparable ketone exposure and gut permeability, whereas endothelial clock rescue restores it.

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  96. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    A shift in H2AFY splicing from macroH2A1.1 toward macroH2A1.2 enables cancer cells to escape the stable senescence normally induced by CDK4/6 inhibition. Restoring macroH2A1.1 will convert reversible treatment-associated arrest into durable senescence. Mechanism: Loss of the ADP-ribose-binding macroH2A1.1 isoform disrupts chromatin regulation needed to stabilize the senescent state. Prediction: At matched total macroH2A1 abundance, macroH2A1.1 restoration will suppress clonogenic recovery after inhibitor withdrawal, whereas macroH2A1.2 will not. A macroH2A1.1 mutant defective in ADP-ribose binding will fail to reproduce this effect.

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  97. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Some resistant cancers retain an intact RB1 gene but acquire nonproductive RB1 splicing that depletes functional RB protein. Correcting the splice defect will restore RB-dependent repression of E2F and treatment-induced senescence. Mechanism: Aberrant exon skipping or intron retention functionally disables RB, removing the downstream effector through which CDK4/6 inhibition arrests proliferation. Prediction: Correcting the endogenous splice defect will restore full-length RB, suppress E2F targets during treatment, and prevent colony regrowth after drug withdrawal. Subsequent RB1 knockout will eliminate the restored response, while splice correction in cells with genomic RB1 loss will have no benefit.

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  98. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    In TP53-wild-type cancers, increased inclusion of MDM4 exon 6 sustains functional MDM4 expression and suppresses the p53–p21 response needed for CDK4/6 inhibitor-induced senescence. Forcing exon skipping will restore therapeutic sensitivity. Mechanism: Productive MDM4 splicing maintains p53 inhibition; exon skipping generates an unproductive transcript and releases p53-dependent senescence signaling. Prediction: An exon-skipping oligonucleotide will lower MDM4 protein, induce p21, and restore durable senescence during CDK4/6 inhibition. TP53 deletion or expression of splice-insensitive MDM4 will abolish this response, distinguishing it from p53-independent chromatin mechanisms.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments
  99. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Inducing a constitutively nuclear HLH-30 transcription factor in adult C. elegans will preserve lysosomal clearance capacity, delay proteostasis failure, and extend functional lifespan. Mechanism: Sustained HLH-30 activity coordinately increases lysosomal biogenesis, hydrolase expression, and autophagic cargo delivery, preventing clearance capacity from falling below the burden of damaged proteins. Prediction: The intervention will increase lysosomal degradative capacity and autophagic flux even when lysosomal pH remains unchanged. A DNA-binding-defective HLH-30 variant will fail, and adult-onset disruption of autophagosome–lysosome fusion will eliminate the proteostasis and lifespan benefits.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments
  100. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Adult-onset intestinal overexpression of the lysosomal lipase LIPL-4 in C. elegans will prevent age-related lysosomal lipid accumulation, preserve protein clearance, and extend lifespan while maintaining organismal function. Mechanism: Increased lysosomal lipid hydrolysis prevents lipid overload from impairing membrane trafficking and hydrolase access to cargo, indirectly sustaining protein degradation. Prediction: Reduced lysosomal lipid accumulation will precede restored protein turnover and reduced aggregation. Benefits will require both lipase activity and lysosomal localization; experimentally restoring lysosomal lipid overload will eliminate the clearance benefit despite continued LIPL-4 expression.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments
  101. Which metabolic regulator causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment, and through what molecular mechanism does it suppress cellular senescence and inflammation?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Restoring nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT) activity in astrocytes mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment by replenishing intracellular NAD+ and preventing senescence. The relevant protective activity is intracellular NAD+ salvage rather than extracellular NAMPT signaling. Mechanism: Increased intracellular NAMPT restores NAD+-dependent SIRT1 activity, supports genome maintenance, and reduces acetylation-dependent NF-κB transcription. Reduced persistent DNA damage and inflammatory secretion limit astrocyte senescence and secondary microglial activation. Prediction: Catalytically active, intracellularly retained NAMPT improves astrocytic NAD+, senescence measures, and memory, whereas catalytically inactive NAMPT does not. Astrocytic SIRT1 deletion abolishes protection despite restored NAD+, while extracellular NAMPT neutralization leaves protection intact.

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  102. Which metabolic regulator causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment, and through what molecular mechanism does it suppress cellular senescence and inflammation?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Adiponectin mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment by preventing mitochondrial damage-driven senescence in microglia. Its cognitive benefit requires microglial adiponectin receptor signaling. Mechanism: Adiponectin activates AdipoR1–AMPK signaling and mitochondrial quality control, reducing mitochondrial reactive oxygen species and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA. Reduced cGAS–STING activation limits inflammatory secretion and the establishment of persistent senescence-associated states. Prediction: Microglial AdipoR1 deletion eliminates adiponectin-induced reductions in cytosolic mitochondrial DNA, senescence, and cognitive impairment. Microglial STING deletion bypasses receptor loss and reproduces protection, supporting this pathway over a primarily vascular mechanism.

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  103. Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Naturally occurring mitochondrial DNA variants alter ovarian ageing rates on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds by changing oxidative damage in primordial oocytes. Variants that increase mitochondrial electron leakage accelerate follicle loss despite comparable initial ovarian reserves. Mechanism: Elevated mitochondrial reactive oxygen species cause oocyte DNA damage, activate the TAp63-dependent apoptotic checkpoint and increase primordial follicle death. Prediction: The faster-ageing mitochondrial genotype produces oxidative damage and checkpoint activation before accelerated follicle depletion. Oocyte-targeted suppression of mitochondrial oxidative damage preferentially rescues its follicle-loss rate without changing follicle recruitment.

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  104. Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Inherited mitochondrial DNA variation accelerates ovarian ageing by impairing granulosa-cell energy production and survival. Loss of granulosa-cell support increases follicular atresia and advances endocrine failure. Mechanism: Reduced respiratory reserve limits granulosa-cell ATP production during follicle growth, promoting apoptosis and reducing steroid synthesis and metabolic support of oocytes. Prediction: Granulosa-cell respiratory failure precedes oocyte injury and increased atresia in the susceptible genotype. Restoring granulosa-cell bioenergetic function preferentially preserves growing follicles and endocrine function, whereas an oocyte-restricted antioxidant intervention provides little rescue.

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  105. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 4 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces MFSD2A expression in strial endothelial cells, increasing transcellular transport across the blood-labyrinth barrier before tight junctions deteriorate. Entry of circulating proteins disrupts strial function and contributes to hearing loss. Mechanism: Loss of MFSD2A-dependent endothelial lipid transport alters membrane lipid composition and releases suppression of caveolae-mediated transcytosis, allowing excessive vascular protein passage into strial tissue. Prediction: Early ageing should increase tracer-containing endothelial vesicles and abluminal tracer delivery while junctional ultrastructure remains intact. Endothelial MFSD2A restoration should normalize these changes and preserve endocochlear potential and hearing, whereas a transport-deficient MFSD2A variant should fail.

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  106. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces PDGFRβ-dependent survival of strial pericytes, and loss of their endothelial support initiates blood-labyrinth barrier failure. Barrier leakage subsequently compromises the electrochemical conditions required for hearing. Mechanism: Reduced pericyte PDGFRβ signaling causes pericyte detachment or death, decreasing local angiopoietin-1 delivery and endothelial TIE2 activation; endothelial junctions consequently destabilize. Prediction: Pericyte loss should precede vascular leakage, and restoring PDGFRβ signaling selectively in adult strial pericytes should preserve coverage, endothelial TIE2 activation, barrier integrity, and hearing. Endothelial TIE2 inhibition should abolish this protection despite preserved pericyte coverage.

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  107. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 1 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related mitochondrial damage in strial endothelial cells activates cGAS–STING signaling, causing inflammatory disruption of the blood-labyrinth barrier. The resulting disturbance of strial ion homeostasis lowers the endocochlear potential and impairs hearing. Mechanism: Mitochondrial DNA escapes into the endothelial cytoplasm and activates cGAS–STING, inducing inflammatory signaling that reduces junctional claudin-5 and redistributes ZO-1, increasing paracellular permeability. Prediction: Inducible endothelial-specific Sting1 deletion before substantial cochlear degeneration should preserve junction organization, reduce vascular tracer leakage, and preserve endocochlear potential and auditory brainstem response thresholds despite persistent mitochondrial damage. Rescue without restored pericyte coverage would favor this mechanism over primary pericyte failure.

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  108. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Transient, mild proteasome inhibition extends adult C. elegans lifespan by triggering a compensatory SKN-1A-dependent increase in proteasome capacity. The resulting degradation of soluble damaged proteins prevents their subsequent aggregation during ageing. Mechanism: Proteasome stress promotes DDI-1-dependent processing of the endoplasmic-reticulum-associated transcription factor SKN-1A, inducing proteasome subunits and increasing assembled, active proteasomes after the stress ends. Prediction: Following inhibitor washout, stressed animals show faster turnover of pre-existing proteasome substrates before aggregate burden declines. Adult-specific loss of SKN-1A or DDI-1 eliminates this turnover increase and longevity benefit; processed SKN-1A bypasses DDI-1 loss.

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  109. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 3 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Mild energetic stress preserves proteostasis and extends C. elegans lifespan by activating an AAK-2–HLH-30 transcriptional program that restores lysosomal degradative capacity. Increased lysosomal acidification, rather than increased autophagosome formation alone, is the limiting causal step. Mechanism: AMP-activated protein kinase AAK-2 reduces TORC1 signaling, promoting nuclear accumulation of HLH-30 and expression of lysosomal acidification and proteolysis genes. Acidic, protease-active lysosomes complete degradation of damaged proteins delivered by autophagy. Prediction: Adult-specific attenuation of HLH-30-dependent lysosomal acidification abolishes stress-induced cargo degradation and lifespan extension despite maintained autophagosome production. Constitutively nuclear HLH-30 bypasses AAK-2 loss but fails to restore benefits when lysosomal acidification remains impaired.

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  110. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    SIRT1-mediated L1 repression primarily restrains the inflammatory phenotype of senescent cells rather than preventing their initial growth arrest. Mechanism: Reduced L1 expression limits accumulation of reverse-transcribed L1 DNA in the cytoplasm, decreasing cGAS–STING signaling and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: In already senescent cells, restoring SIRT1 or selectively suppressing L1 decreases cytoplasmic L1 DNA and inflammatory secretion without restoring proliferation. Disabling cGAS–STING removes the additional anti-inflammatory benefit of L1 suppression while leaving upstream L1 abundance largely unchanged.

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  111. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 maintains L1 silencing through SUV39H1-dependent heterochromatin formation, and disruption of this pathway promotes cellular senescence. Mechanism: SIRT1-dependent deacetylation supports SUV39H1 activity, maintaining H3K9 trimethylation and HP1 occupancy at L1 loci. Prediction: SIRT1 loss reduces L1-associated H3K9 trimethylation and HP1 occupancy before L1 activation. Restoring SUV39H1-dependent repression suppresses L1 expression and delays senescence despite continued SIRT1 deficiency, while SUV39H1 deficiency prevents SIRT1 from providing these benefits.

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  112. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 directly represses L1 transcription by deacetylating histones at L1 promoters, thereby limiting L1-dependent DNA damage and senescence initiation. Mechanism: Promoter-associated SIRT1 removes activating histone acetylation, reduces chromatin accessibility, and suppresses transcription of intact L1 elements. Prediction: Loss of SIRT1 increases promoter acetylation and nascent L1 transcription before senescence develops. Catalytically active SIRT1 restores repression, whereas catalytically inactive SIRT1 does not; selective L1 suppression partially prevents the subsequent stable growth arrest.

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  113. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 5 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Stress-induced sympathetic activity suppresses protective calcitonin gene-related peptide release from marrow sensory fibers, allowing osteogenic progenitors to become senescent. Non-invasive stimulation of the corresponding peripheral sensory nerve restores osteogenesis by replenishing local peptide signaling. Mechanism: Norepinephrine inhibits sensory-terminal peptide release through presynaptic α2-adrenergic receptors. Loss of CGRP signaling through stromal CALCRL–RAMP1 receptors weakens mitochondrial antioxidant defenses, increasing DNA damage and stable cell-cycle arrest. Prediction: Peripheral sensory stimulation restores marrow CGRP and osteogenesis even when norepinephrine remains elevated, but its benefit disappears after stromal Ramp1 deletion. Local CGRP replacement mimics stimulation, and sensory-neuron-specific disruption of inhibitory α2-adrenergic signaling prevents the stress-induced CGRP decline.

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  114. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Stress-induced norepinephrine release directly drives senescence in bone marrow mesenchymal stromal cells through β2-adrenergic receptors. Non-invasive transcutaneous peripheral nerve stimulation restores osteogenesis by reducing local norepinephrine exposure. Mechanism: Persistent β2-adrenergic signaling increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species and DNA damage, activating p53–p21-dependent stable cell-cycle arrest and reducing osteoblast differentiation. Prediction: Inducible stromal-cell-specific Adrb2 deletion prevents stress-induced senescence despite elevated marrow norepinephrine. Peripheral stimulation lowers marrow norepinephrine and protects control animals, whereas local norepinephrine replacement abolishes protection only when stromal β2-adrenergic receptors remain intact.

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  115. What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Senescent cells drive skeletal-muscle dysfunction by increasing CD38-dependent NAD+ consumption in the local tissue environment. Restoring muscle NAD+ availability reverses mitochondrial impairment and improves strength even before senescent-cell abundance declines. Mechanism: Senescence-associated inflammatory signals induce CD38 in muscle-resident immune cells, increasing NAD+ turnover and limiting NAD+ availability in neighboring myofibers. Reduced mitochondrial NAD+ compromises oxidative metabolism and SIRT3-dependent maintenance of mitochondrial enzymes. Prediction: After muscle dysfunction is established, immune-cell-specific CD38 inhibition restores myofiber mitochondrial NAD+, ATP-linked respiration and specific force despite persistent senescence markers. Preventing mitochondrial NAD+ replenishment abolishes this rescue, distinguishing NAD+ depletion from a purely inflammatory mechanism.

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  116. What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?

    Hypothesis 2 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

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    Senescence redirects sphingolipid metabolism toward excess ceramide production, which directly impairs muscle mitochondrial membranes and respiration. Reducing the responsible ceramide species reverses mitochondrial dysfunction and muscle weakness. Mechanism: Senescence increases ceramide synthesis or sphingomyelin breakdown in muscle-resident cells. Accumulation of specific long-chain ceramides in myofiber mitochondria disrupts inner-membrane organization, increases electron leakage and decreases ATP production. Prediction: Selective suppression of the ceramide-producing enzyme identified by lipid tracing lowers mitochondrial ceramide and restores respiration and specific force without first restoring NAD+ or reducing senescent-cell numbers. Reintroducing the implicated ceramide species abolishes the rescue, whereas an unrelated sphingolipid does not.

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  117. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Maternal ageing increases CD38-dependent NAD+ consumption in decidual macrophages, causing them to release IL-1β that induces premature senescence in fetal trophoblast progenitors. Interrupting macrophage NAD+ depletion or trophoblast IL-1 signalling should preserve placental function and improve offspring growth. Mechanism: Macrophage NAD+ depletion impairs mitochondrial function and promotes inflammasome-dependent IL-1β secretion; trophoblast IL-1 receptor activation sustains oxidative stress and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: Macrophage-specific CD38 loss and trophoblast-specific IL-1 receptor loss should each reduce premature trophoblast senescence in aged pregnancies. Restoring IL-1β should reverse protection from macrophage CD38 loss but not from trophoblast receptor loss, establishing the proposed signalling order.

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  118. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    A soluble uPAR×CD3 bispecific immune engager can selectively eliminate uPAR-high senescent cells in aged mice and non-human primates within an exposure range that spares essential nonsenescent cells. Mechanism: Simultaneous binding to uPAR on target cells and CD3 on T cells triggers cytotoxic synapses preferentially above a target-antigen density threshold. Dose titration exploits a proposed difference in uPAR density between senescent cells and healthy tissues. Prediction: Both species show an exposure interval with loss of independently verified senescent cells and preserved healthy tissue function. Target blockade or a CD3-binding-deficient engager abolishes killing; equivalent killing of uPAR-low healthy cells would contradict the proposed selectivity.

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  119. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 5 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    The early post-dose rise in circulating interleukin-6 can guide safer dosing by identifying excessive immune activation before overt organ injury develops. Mechanism: Engager-driven T-cell activation recruits a secondary myeloid inflammatory response that releases interleukin-6. An excessive or sustained increase signals that immune activation has exceeded the exposure needed for selective senolysis. Prediction: In each species, baseline-adjusted interleukin-6 trajectories prospectively predict subsequent clinical or biochemical toxicity beyond drug exposure and baseline inflammation. A prespecified dose-holding rule based on this measurement reduces toxicity while preserving senescent-cell clearance compared with fixed dosing; elevations restricted to effective, nontoxic treatment would invalidate its proposed discriminatory value.

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  120. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Intermittent exposure to a rapidly cleared immune engager preserves senolytic efficacy while reducing systemic toxicity relative to continuous exposure in both species. Mechanism: Brief exposure commits target cells to apoptosis, whereas sustained exposure prolongs T-cell activation and cytokine production. Drug clearance therefore terminates further immune recruitment after sufficient target killing has occurred. Prediction: At comparable senescent-cell depletion, intermittent treatment produces less sustained cytokine elevation and organ injury than continuous treatment. T-cell activation declines after withdrawal; persistent activation despite drug clearance would undermine external controllability.

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  121. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 3 · 3 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Engager-mediated removal of senescent stromal cells improves age-related tissue dysfunction by durably reducing their inflammatory and profibrotic secretions. Mechanism: Eliminating the cellular source of the senescence-associated secretory phenotype reduces recruitment of inflammatory cells and activation of matrix-producing fibroblasts, allowing tissue remodeling to subside. Prediction: In aged mice and primates with baseline fibrotic pathology, verified stromal-cell depletion precedes reduced tissue inflammatory signaling, reduced collagen accumulation, and improved organ function after drug washout. A binding-matched engager unable to recruit T cells fails to reproduce these benefits, distinguishing clearance from target-receptor blockade.

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  122. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing endothelial cells increase CD38-dependent degradation of extracellular NAD+ precursors, limiting NAD+ replenishment in surrounding tissues. The resulting loss of sirtuin activity drives systemic senescence and shortens lifespan. Mechanism: Increased endothelial CD38 activity reduces extracellular nicotinamide mononucleotide availability, lowering parenchymal NAD+ and compromising SIRT1-dependent DNA repair and SIRT3-dependent mitochondrial protection. Prediction: Endothelial-specific CD38 deletion in aged mice would restore precursor availability and tissue NAD+, reduce senescence across organs, and extend survival despite persistent capillary rarefaction; disrupting NAD+ salvage in recipient tissues would abolish this protection.

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  123. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · 4 positive votes from 4 models

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Haiku 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related mitochondrial damage activates endothelial cGAS–STING signalling, producing circulating inflammatory signals that induce senescence in distant organs. This endothelial inflammatory programme contributes to shortened lifespan independently of impaired perfusion. Mechanism: Mitochondrial DNA released into the endothelial cytosol activates cGAS–STING and downstream inflammatory transcription, increasing type I interferon and senescence-associated secretory signals that sustain stress responses in recipient cells. Prediction: Endothelial-specific STING deletion would reduce circulating inflammatory activity, distant tissue senescence, and mortality without restoring capillary density or tissue oxygenation; plasma from these animals would lose its ability to induce senescence in recipient cells.

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Individual models and the recorded coin on the same hypotheses

All rows below use these same 250 hypotheses and the current selection condition. The coin retains its one recorded binary decision for each hypothesis.

Individual models and the recorded coin on the same hypotheses
Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Claude Sonnet 5.520.3%26 / 128Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points91.8%112 / 122Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points72.2%26 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points52.3%112 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: -0.9 percentage points2501282610212211210
Claude Haiku 5.518.3%20 / 109Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +3.8 percentage points88.7%125 / 141Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +2.9 percentage points55.6%20 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points58.4%125 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +5.1 percentage points250109208914112516
GPT-6 Astra16%32 / 200Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +1.5 percentage points92%46 / 50Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points88.9%32 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +41.7 percentage points21.5%46 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: -31.8 percentage points2502003216850464
Gemini 4 Argon21.1%32 / 152Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +6.5 percentage points95.9%94 / 98Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points88.9%32 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +41.7 percentage points43.9%94 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: -9.3 percentage points2501523212098944
Coin14.5%17 / 11785.7%114 / 13347.2%17 / 3653.3%114 / 2142501171710013311419
All 21 pairs and 35 triples

Each listed combination requires every model in that combination to give a positive vote. All 56 comparisons use the same 190 hypotheses with forecasts from all seven versions, including 24 article matches. Select a row to inspect its hypotheses.

All 21 pairs and 35 triples
Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
21.7%15 / 69Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.6 percentage points92.6%112 / 121Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.7 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points67.5%112 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.1 percentage points1906915541211129
17.5%11 / 63Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +4.3 percentage points89.8%114 / 127Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.9 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points68.7%114 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.3 percentage points19063115212711413
18.4%14 / 76Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.2 percentage points91.2%104 / 114Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points62.7%104 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points19076146211410410
16.7%15 / 90Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points91%91 / 100Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.1 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points54.8%91 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points190901575100919
19.7%15 / 76Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points92.1%105 / 114Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points63.3%105 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points1907615611141059
20.3%16 / 79Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points92.8%103 / 111Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.9 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points62%103 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points1907916631111038
20%11 / 55Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.8 percentage points90.4%122 / 135Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points73.5%122 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.1 percentage points19055114413512213
19.8%16 / 81Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points92.7%101 / 109Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.8 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points60.8%101 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points1908116651091018
19.8%17 / 86Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points93.3%97 / 104Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.4 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points58.4%97 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points190861769104977
23.3%17 / 73Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +10.1 percentage points94%110 / 117Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points66.3%110 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points1907317561171107
24.3%18 / 74Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points94.8%110 / 116Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points75%18 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points66.3%110 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points1907418561161106
16.7%11 / 66Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points89.5%111 / 124Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.6 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points66.9%111 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +14.5 percentage points19066115512411113
16.9%13 / 77Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +3.7 percentage points90.3%102 / 113Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points54.2%13 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points61.4%102 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +9 percentage points19077136411310211
18.8%12 / 64Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points90.5%114 / 126Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.6 percentage points50%12 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points68.7%114 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.3 percentage points19064125212611412
19.4%13 / 67Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.2 percentage points91.1%112 / 123Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points54.2%13 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points67.5%112 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.1 percentage points19067135412311211
18.2%18 / 99Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points93.4%85 / 91Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points75%18 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +25 percentage points51.2%85 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: -1.2 percentage points19099188191856
21.5%17 / 79Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points93.7%104 / 111Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points62.7%104 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +10.2 percentage points1907917621111047
19.1%17 / 89Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.9 percentage points93.1%94 / 101Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.2 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points56.6%94 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points190891772101947
18.5%20 / 108Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points95.1%78 / 82Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +7.2 percentage points83.3%20 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points47%78 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: -5.4 percentage points190108208882784
18.5%20 / 108Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points95.1%78 / 82Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +7.2 percentage points83.3%20 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points47%78 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: -5.4 percentage points190108208882784
23.3%20 / 86Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +10.1 percentage points96.2%100 / 104Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points83.3%20 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +33.3 percentage points60.2%100 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +7.8 percentage points1908620661041004
20.8%10 / 48Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +7.6 percentage points90.1%128 / 142Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.3 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points77.1%128 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +24.7 percentage points19048103814212814
21%13 / 62Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +7.8 percentage points91.4%117 / 128Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points54.2%13 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points70.5%117 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +18.1 percentage points19062134912811711
21.2%14 / 66Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points91.9%114 / 124Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points68.7%114 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.3 percentage points19066145212411410
24.1%14 / 58Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +11 percentage points92.4%122 / 132Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.5 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points73.5%122 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.1 percentage points19058144413212210
24.6%15 / 61Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points93%120 / 129Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.1 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points72.3%120 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +19.9 percentage points1906115461291209
18.2%10 / 55Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points89.6%121 / 135Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.8 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points72.9%121 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +20.5 percentage points19055104513512114
16.4%10 / 61Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points89.1%115 / 129Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.3 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points69.3%115 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points19061105112911514
17.9%10 / 56Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +4.7 percentage points89.6%120 / 134Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.7 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points72.3%120 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +19.9 percentage points19056104613412014
20%11 / 55Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.8 percentage points90.4%122 / 135Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points73.5%122 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.1 percentage points19055114413512213
18.9%14 / 74Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points91.4%106 / 116Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points63.9%106 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points19074146011610610
20.3%13 / 64Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points91.3%115 / 126Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.4 percentage points54.2%13 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +4.2 percentage points69.3%115 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points19064135112611511
20%14 / 70Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.8 percentage points91.7%110 / 120Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.8 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points66.3%110 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points19070145612011010
18.9%14 / 74Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points91.4%106 / 116Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.5 percentage points58.3%14 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points63.9%106 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points19074146011610610
19.2%15 / 78Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points92%103 / 112Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points62%103 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points1907815631121039
22.7%15 / 66Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +9.5 percentage points92.7%115 / 124Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.9 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points69.3%115 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points1906615511241159
18.9%10 / 53Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points89.8%123 / 137Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.9 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points74.1%123 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.7 percentage points19053104313712314
18.9%10 / 53Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points89.8%123 / 137Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.9 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points74.1%123 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.7 percentage points19053104313712314
21.7%10 / 46Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.6 percentage points90.3%130 / 144Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points78.3%130 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +25.9 percentage points19046103614413014
22%11 / 50Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.8 percentage points90.7%127 / 140Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.8 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points76.5%127 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +24.1 percentage points19050113914012713
20.8%16 / 77Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +7.6 percentage points92.9%105 / 113Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points63.3%105 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +10.8 percentage points1907716611131058
23.1%15 / 65Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +9.9 percentage points92.8%116 / 125Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +4.9 percentage points62.5%15 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +12.5 percentage points69.9%116 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points1906515501251169
23.5%16 / 68Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +10.3 percentage points93.4%114 / 122Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points68.7%114 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.3 percentage points1906816521221148
22.9%16 / 70Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +9.7 percentage points93.3%112 / 120Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points67.5%112 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.1 percentage points1907016541201128
23.6%17 / 72Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +10.4 percentage points94.1%111 / 118Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +6.2 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points66.9%111 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +14.5 percentage points1907217551181117
27.4%17 / 62Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +14.2 percentage points94.5%121 / 128Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +6.7 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points72.9%121 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +20.5 percentage points1906217451281217
17.2%11 / 64Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points89.7%113 / 126Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.8 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points68.1%113 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.7 percentage points19064115312611313
18.2%10 / 55Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5 percentage points89.6%121 / 135Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +1.8 percentage points41.7%10 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points72.9%121 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +20.5 percentage points19055104513512114
18%11 / 61Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +4.8 percentage points89.9%116 / 129Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points69.9%116 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +17.5 percentage points19061115012911613
17.7%11 / 62Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +4.6 percentage points89.8%115 / 128Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2 percentage points45.8%11 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: -4.2 percentage points69.3%115 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +16.9 percentage points19062115112811513
18.5%12 / 65Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points90.4%113 / 125Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +2.5 percentage points50%12 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points68.1%113 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.7 percentage points19065125312511312
21.4%12 / 56Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.2 percentage points91%122 / 134Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points50%12 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points73.5%122 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +21.1 percentage points19056124413412212
22.1%17 / 77Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +8.9 percentage points93.8%106 / 113Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.9 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points63.9%106 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +11.4 percentage points1907717601131067
19.8%17 / 86Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +6.6 percentage points93.3%97 / 104Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.4 percentage points70.8%17 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +20.8 percentage points58.4%97 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points190861769104977
22.9%16 / 70Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +9.7 percentage points93.3%112 / 120Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +5.5 percentage points66.7%16 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points67.5%112 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +15.1 percentage points1907016541201128
22.6%19 / 84Coin: 13.2% (12 / 91)Difference from the coin: +9.4 percentage points95.3%101 / 106Coin: 87.9% (87 / 99)Difference from the coin: +7.4 percentage points79.2%19 / 24Coin: 50% (12 / 24)Difference from the coin: +29.2 percentage points60.8%101 / 166Coin: 52.4% (87 / 166)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points1908419651061015
Limits of the comparison

Agreement can concentrate article matches while omitting many known matches. These are exploratory results on previously examined questions. A fixed panel and voting rule need evaluation on new questions; future experimental prediction requires experimentally observed outcomes.

Four of the seven usable versions are Claude models. Their votes are not assumed independent. The one-model-per-company panel provides a separate comparison.

Downloadable data

Benchmark of a short question about hypothesis confirmation

The prepared inputs contain the same 250 hypotheses from 50 research questions for 4 models. Each model answers a short question about experimental confirmation. A positive forecast is its own “yes”; the number of positive forecasts is unrestricted.

Will this hypothesis be confirmed experimentally?

The input retains the full background, research question and five anonymous hypotheses. The instruction asks for an ID and a yes/no answer for each hypothesis. The model chooses its own way of reasoning; no scientific checklist, requested probability or proposed experiment is supplied.

After saving the forecasts, we check correspondence to the hidden article using the ratings of at least two of the three original judges. The selected ratings below define correspondence. Hypotheses with lower ratings may receive support in future experiments. This benchmark performs no laboratory experiments.

Grok was rerun with the exact working final-answer control from the first benchmark, repeated in both the system and user-message tail. The scientific question and all 250 hypotheses are unchanged. The original failed pilot remains in the earlier report. Earlier report with the failed Grok pilot

The article’s main mechanism · score 3 or higher

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Coin

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 117, comprising 17 correct and 100 incorrect forecasts. No: 133, comprising 114 correct and 19 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 117 hypotheses. Of these, 17 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.14.5%17 / 117
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 133 hypotheses. Of these, 114 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.85.7%114 / 133
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 17 of these.47.2%17 / 36
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 214 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 114 of these.53.3%114 / 214

Usable forecasts: 245 of 250 hypotheses; 1 question with invalid replies.

Usable forecasts: 245. Yes: 49, comprising 14 correct and 35 incorrect forecasts. No: 196, comprising 174 correct and 22 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 49 hypotheses. Of these, 14 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.28.6%14 / 49Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +13.7 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 196 hypotheses. Of these, 174 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.88.8%174 / 196Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 14 of these.38.9%14 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 209 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 174 of these.83.3%174 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250 hypotheses; 0 questions with invalid replies.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 75, comprising 23 correct and 52 incorrect forecasts. No: 175, comprising 162 correct and 13 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 75 hypotheses. Of these, 23 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.30.7%23 / 75Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +16.1 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 175 hypotheses. Of these, 162 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92.6%162 / 175Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 23 of these.63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 214 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 162 of these.75.7%162 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +22.4 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250 hypotheses; 0 questions with invalid replies.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 63, comprising 21 correct and 42 incorrect forecasts. No: 187, comprising 172 correct and 15 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 63 hypotheses. Of these, 21 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.33.3%21 / 63Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.8 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 187 hypotheses. Of these, 172 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92%172 / 187Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 21 of these.58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 214 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 172 of these.80.4%172 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +27.1 percentage points

Usable forecasts: 250 of 250 hypotheses; 0 questions with invalid replies.

Usable forecasts: 250. Yes: 94, comprising 25 correct and 69 incorrect forecasts. No: 156, comprising 145 correct and 11 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 94 hypotheses. Of these, 25 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.26.6%25 / 94Coin: 14.5% (17 / 117)Difference from the coin: +12.1 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 156 hypotheses. Of these, 145 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92.9%145 / 156Coin: 85.7% (114 / 133)Difference from the coin: +7.2 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 25 of these.69.4%25 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +22.2 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 214 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 145 of these.67.8%145 / 214Coin: 53.3% (114 / 214)Difference from the coin: +14.5 percentage points

All coin results use the original recorded tosses. Each comparison retains only the same hypotheses used for the corresponding model or rule; no toss is redrawn.

Agreement between models in this direct-forecast run

Each rule uses the same 245 hypotheses from 49 questions with usable forecasts from all 4 models. This shared cohort contains 36 of the 36 article matches in the full dataset. A positive vote is a saved yes.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
At least 1 of 4 positive votes22.4%28 / 125Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points93.3%112 / 120Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +7.8 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points53.6%112 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points24512528971201128
At least 2 of 4 positive votes27.7%23 / 83Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12.8 percentage points92%149 / 162Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.5 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points71.3%149 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +17.7 percentage points24583236016214913
At least 3 of 4 positive votes43.8%21 / 48Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +28.8 percentage points92.4%182 / 197Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.1%182 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24548212719718215
At least 4 of 4 positive votes50%11 / 22Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +35.1 percentage points88.8%198 / 223Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points30.6%11 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -16.7 percentage points94.7%198 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +41.1 percentage points24522111122319825

The article’s main mechanism · score 3 or higher

All configurations and baselines use the same 245 hypotheses from 49 source papers. Technical omissions are excluded identically.

Models in the combination

Yes forecasts: 83. True positives: 23; false positives: 60; false negatives: 13; true negatives: 149.

Among yes forecasts, 60 of 83 are false positives (72.3%). Of the article-corresponding hypotheses, 13 of 36 are missed (36.1%).

Usable forecasts: 245. Yes: 83, comprising 23 correct and 60 incorrect forecasts. No: 162, comprising 149 correct and 13 incorrect forecasts.

Positive predictive valueA yes forecast was given to 83 hypotheses. Of these, 23 meet the selected article-correspondence criterion.27.7%23 / 83Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12.8 percentage points
Negative predictive valueA no forecast was given to 162 hypotheses. Of these, 149 are below the selected article-correspondence threshold.92%149 / 162Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.5 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 36 article matches. A yes forecast was given to 23 of these.63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 209 hypotheses below the article-correspondence threshold. A no forecast was given to 149 of these.71.3%149 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +17.7 percentage points
Hypotheses in the selected view · 83
  1. How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Elevated circulating kynurenine in aged animals persistently activates aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling in intestinal stem cells, reducing their capacity to use fatty acids for regeneration. Mechanism: Sustained kynurenine–aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling represses the PPAR-regulated fatty-acid oxidation program, limiting mitochondrial substrate flexibility during regenerative proliferation. Prediction: Kynurenine at concentrations measured in aged plasma reproduces reduced fatty-acid oxidation and regenerative output; stem-cell aryl hydrocarbon receptor deletion prevents both effects despite equivalent kynurenine exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  2. How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Elevated circulating TNF in aged animals impairs intestinal regeneration by suppressing mitochondrial pyruvate oxidation in intestinal stem cells. This metabolic restriction directly limits their expansion after injury. Mechanism: TNF activates stem-cell TNFR1–NF-κB signaling, increasing pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase activity and inhibitory phosphorylation of pyruvate dehydrogenase, thereby reducing glucose-derived carbon entry into the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Prediction: Aged serum reduces glucose-derived mitochondrial carbon flux and organoid formation; stem-cell-specific TNFR1 deletion or blockade of pyruvate dehydrogenase inhibition restores both despite continued exposure to aged serum.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  3. Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Moderate physical activity delays ovarian ageing by lowering chronic insulin exposure and preventing excessive primordial-follicle activation. This preserves the follicle reserve through reduced oocyte PI3K–AKT signalling and sustained nuclear FOXO3. Mechanism: Improved skeletal-muscle insulin sensitivity reduces compensatory hyperinsulinaemia, decreasing insulin-receptor signalling in primordial oocytes. Reduced AKT-mediated FOXO3 phosphorylation maintains follicle dormancy and slows reserve depletion. Prediction: In initially hyperinsulinaemic mice, exercise should reduce primordial-oocyte AKT phosphorylation, retain nuclear FOXO3 and extend the age of last successful reproduction. Maintaining sedentary-range insulin exposure during training under matched glycaemia should abolish these benefits, whereas lowering insulin in sedentary animals should reproduce them.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  4. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Elevated lipoprotein-associated C16:0 ceramide acts as a circulating driver of cellular senescence and accelerates organismal functional decline. Mechanism: Delivery of C16:0 ceramide to recipient cells increases mitochondrial ceramide, impairs respiratory function and raises mitochondrial reactive oxygen species. Subsequent DNA damage activates p53–p21 and persistent senescence. Prediction: Lipoproteins enriched with C16:0 ceramide at age-relevant concentrations induce persistent senescence more strongly than otherwise matched particles containing very-long-chain ceramides; recipient-cell mitochondrial ceramide clearance prevents this effect and protects tissue function during chronic exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  5. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Circulating ANGPTL2 drives endothelial senescence and thereby accelerates vascular and systemic ageing. Its effects require sustained inflammatory signaling within endothelial cells. Mechanism: ANGPTL2 engages integrin α5β1 and activates Rac1-dependent oxidative stress and NF-κB signaling. The resulting persistent DNA-damage response activates p53–p21 and reinforces inflammatory secretion. Prediction: Selective depletion of ANGPTL2 from aged plasma reduces its senescence-inducing activity in endothelial cultures, and physiological add-back restores it; endothelial disruption of integrin α5β1 signaling blocks the response.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  6. Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated elevation of circulating activin A causally promotes senescence in tissue stromal cells and accelerates functional decline. Sustained exposure converts a reversible stress response into stable cell-cycle arrest. Mechanism: Activin A activates ACVR2A/ACVR2B–ACVR1B receptor complexes and SMAD2/3 signaling, inducing p15 and p21. Prolonged signaling establishes persistent arrest and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: Maintaining circulating activin A at concentrations measured in old animals induces persistent senescence and functional impairment in young animals; stromal-cell-specific ACVR1B deletion prevents these effects despite equivalent circulating exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  7. Can a microbiota-derived factor directly cause the cellular dysfunction and progressive tissue remodeling characteristic of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and if so, through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    A microbiota-derived proapoptotic peptide, such as corisin, initiates pulmonary fibrosis by repeatedly killing alveolar type II epithelial cells. Sustained peptide exposure causes epithelial loss faster than regenerative replacement. Mechanism: The peptide activates mitochondrial apoptosis in alveolar type II cells, compromising alveolar repair and promoting profibrotic signaling that activates fibroblasts and increases extracellular matrix deposition. Prediction: Purified peptide at concentrations measured in diseased lungs induces epithelial apoptosis before progressive collagen accumulation in microbiota-free experimental models. Peptide neutralization or epithelial-specific inhibition of mitochondrial apoptosis prevents both effects despite equivalent exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  8. Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing increases FLI1 activity relative to KLF1 in progenitors retaining both erythroid and megakaryocytic potential, redirecting their differentiation toward platelet-producing megakaryocytes. Mechanism: Increased FLI1 occupancy favors megakaryocytic regulatory elements and antagonizes the KLF1-dependent erythroid program, changing how shared factors such as GATA1 activate lineage-specific genes. Prediction: Partial FLI1 suppression in aged, clonally tracked bipotent progenitors restores erythroid output at the expense of megakaryocytic output without selectively killing megakaryocytic cells. KLF1 suppression abolishes this rescue.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  9. What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related loss of functional PIEZO1 channels in osteocytes reduces mechanically evoked calcium signals and limits loading-induced bone formation. Pharmacological sensitization of residual PIEZO1 restores the anabolic response. Mechanism: Reduced PIEZO1 activity weakens calcium-dependent signaling that normally suppresses sclerostin and activates osteoblast-supporting Wnt signaling. Prediction: At matched tissue strain, aged bone shows reduced osteocyte calcium responses; a PIEZO1 agonist restores both these responses and loading-induced cortical bone formation, with rescue abolished by osteocyte-specific Piezo1 deletion.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  10. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Defective RNA-processing homeostasis induces senescence by allowing persistent RNA–DNA hybrids to accumulate at transcribed genes. These hybrids create transcription–replication conflicts that generate DNA breaks. Mechanism: Disrupted assembly or nuclear localization of RNA-processing factors impairs cotranscriptional RNA packaging. Persistent R-loops obstruct replication forks, generating ATR activation, fork collapse, and a sustained senescence-associated DNA damage response. Prediction: RNA-processing disruption should increase RNase H-sensitive hybrids before DNA breaks, with damage enriched at highly transcribed loci. Nuclear expression of catalytically active RNase H1, but not an inactive control, should reduce locus-associated damage and durable arrest without restoring the broader RNA-processing defect.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  11. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Mitochondrial metabolic dysfunction causes senescence by limiting aspartate-dependent nucleotide synthesis rather than primarily by increasing oxidants. Resulting nucleotide insufficiency converts ordinary DNA replication into persistent genomic stress. Mechanism: Impaired mitochondrial electron transport restricts aspartate production and de novo nucleotide synthesis. Depleted or imbalanced deoxynucleotide pools slow replication forks, promote fork collapse, and engage ATR–CHK1 followed by sustained p53–p21 signaling. Prediction: In proliferating cells, nucleotide depletion should precede replication-fork slowing and DNA breaks. Balanced deoxynucleoside supplementation should restore fork progression and reduce subsequent senescence despite persistent mitochondrial dysfunction, whereas mitochondrial antioxidant treatment should fail if nucleotide pools remain depleted.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra.

  12. What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Excessive calcium transfer from the endoplasmic reticulum to mitochondria drives senescence through mitochondrial oxidant production. This mechanism links disturbed calcium homeostasis to persistent nuclear DNA damage. Mechanism: Sustained IP3 receptor–GRP75–VDAC coupling increases mitochondrial calcium uptake through MCU. Calcium overload disrupts electron transport, increasing hydrogen peroxide delivery to the nucleus and activating DNA damage checkpoints. Prediction: Following a defined calcium-homeostasis perturbation, partial MCU inhibition should prevent mitochondrial calcium overload, nuclear oxidative lesions, and senescence without correcting endoplasmic-reticulum stress. Restoring nuclear hydrogen peroxide experimentally should bypass this protection.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  13. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Circulating oxidized LDL that increases with age actively drives vascular cellular ageing through LOX-1 signaling. Its removal reverses endothelial dysfunction before stable senescence develops. Mechanism: Oxidized LDL activates LOX-1-dependent oxidative stress, reduces nitric oxide availability, and triggers DNA damage and inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Selective oxidized-LDL depletion from older-donor plasma restores endothelial nitric oxide production and reduces persistent senescence after exposure; add-back at the original concentration reinstates both effects. Native LDL matched for particle number does not reproduce the phenotype, and LOX-1 disruption prevents it.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  14. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated accumulation of uptake-accessible extracellular mitochondrial DNA actively propagates inflammatory cellular ageing. Removing the circulating DNA reverses innate immune activation and prevents secondary senescence, although it may not reverse senescence already established in recipient tissues. Mechanism: Internalized mitochondrial DNA activates endosomal TLR9 and, when delivered to the cytosol, cGAS–STING signaling, causing inflammatory secretion that induces senescence in neighboring cells. Prediction: Selective mitochondrial-DNA depletion from older-donor plasma reduces innate immune activation and the ability of exposed immune-cell conditioned medium to induce persistent fibroblast arrest. Add-back in the original carrier form restores these effects, with pathway-specific receptor disruption identifying the required DNA-sensing route.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  15. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Elevated circulating activin A in older adults directly suppresses skeletal-muscle regenerative capacity and promotes a senescence-like state in muscle progenitors. This functional burden is substantially reversible by transient activin A neutralization. Mechanism: Excess activin A activates activin type II receptors and SMAD2/3 signaling, increasing cell-cycle inhibitors and suppressing myogenic differentiation. Prediction: Activin A neutralization in older-donor plasma restores progenitor expansion, differentiation, and subsequent tissue repair, while concentration-matched add-back abolishes rescue. Recovery after washout would distinguish reversible signaling-dependent suppression from irreversible progenitor depletion.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  16. Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated accumulation of circulating indoxyl sulfate directly induces endothelial senescence, independently of other consequences of declining kidney function. Removing indoxyl sulfate reverses early mitochondrial dysfunction, whereas established senescence requires clearance of affected cells. Mechanism: Indoxyl sulfate activates aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling and mitochondrial oxidative stress, producing persistent DNA damage and stable cell-cycle arrest. Prediction: At concentrations and free fractions measured in older adults, indoxyl sulfate induces persistent arrest and impaired endothelial function. Selective depletion from older-donor plasma prevents these effects, physiological add-back restores them, and receptor disruption blocks them; withdrawal restores function more effectively after brief than prolonged exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon.

  17. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    In old mice with age-depleted Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, restoring a defined butyrate-producing strain will suppress inflammaging and improve physical function. Butyrate supplementation will reproduce these benefits through HCAR2-dependent regulation of intestinal macrophages. Mechanism: Microbial butyrate activates macrophage HCAR2, reducing NF-κB signaling and inflammatory cytokine production and thereby limiting systemic inflammation. Prediction: The strain and colon-targeted butyrate will reduce circulating IL-6 and TNF and improve frailty scores and grip strength in aged controls, but these benefits will be substantially attenuated by macrophage-specific Hcar2 deletion despite comparable intestinal butyrate exposure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  18. Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Restoring an age-depleted, indole-3-propionic-acid-producing Clostridium sporogenes strain will improve healthspan in old mice by repairing intestinal barrier function. Its metabolite indole-3-propionic acid will be sufficient to reproduce the effect. Mechanism: Indole-3-propionic acid activates epithelial pregnane X receptor, strengthening barrier function and reducing microbial-product translocation that drives systemic innate immune activation. Prediction: Wild-type bacteria will reduce intestinal permeability, circulating microbial products, inflammatory cytokines and frailty more effectively than a colonization-matched metabolite-deficient strain. Metabolite supplementation will rescue the deficient strain's effects, whereas epithelial Pxr deletion will block the rescue.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  19. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Aging reduces injury-induced neuronal reprogramming by making Müller glial chromatin less accessible to proneural transcription factors. This creates a cell-intrinsic barrier to neuronal fate conversion. Mechanism: Age-dependent stabilization of repressive chromatin at neuronal regulatory elements prevents reprogramming factors such as ASCL1 from activating a neurogenic program. Prediction: With injury severity and ASCL1 expression matched, aged Müller glia would show reduced accessibility and ASCL1 occupancy at neuronal enhancers. Targeted reopening of those enhancers would restore lineage-traced neuronal conversion despite an unchanged aged inflammatory environment.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  20. How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Aging suppresses retinal neuronal reprogramming because injury elicits a prolonged inflammatory response that maintains Müller glia in a reactive state. Mechanism: Persistent microglial cytokine production sustains NF-κB and STAT3 signaling in Müller glia, favoring reactive gliosis over neuronal differentiation. Prediction: Transient, post-injury inhibition of microglial cytokine production or Müller glial inflammatory signaling would preferentially restore conversion in aged retinas. Conversely, an aged microglial secretome would suppress conversion in young retinal preparations, with rescue following cytokine neutralization.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  21. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations in adult stem and progenitor cells causes premature ageing and shortened lifespan by exhausting tissue regenerative capacity. Mechanism: Mitochondrial dysfunction induces progenitor apoptosis or durable proliferative arrest, reducing replacement of damaged cells and progressively impairing tissue maintenance. Prediction: Mutation elevation restricted to stem and progenitor cells produces greater regenerative failure than elevation in matched differentiated-cell compartments. Preserving low-mutation progenitors delays tissue decline despite persistent mutations in differentiated cells.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  22. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden after development causes premature multisystem ageing and shortens lifespan in a large mammal by impairing oxidative phosphorylation. Mechanism: Pathogenic mutations compromise respiratory-chain function, reducing ATP production and causing progressive failure in tissues with high energy demands. Prediction: Respiratory impairment precedes functional decline, and mutation burden predicts ageing phenotypes through its effect on respiratory capacity. An intervention that restores respiratory function without lowering mutation burden delays decline and improves survival.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  23. Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden causes premature ageing and shortened lifespan only when pathogenic variants clonally expand beyond functional heteroplasmy thresholds in enough cells. Mechanism: Intracellular expansion of damaging variants produces a mosaic of respiratory-deficient cells; organ function deteriorates when the affected cellular fraction exceeds tissue-specific tolerances. Prediction: Among animals with similar bulk mutation burdens, decline and survival track the fraction of cells carrying high-heteroplasmy pathogenic variants. Animals with many dispersed low-heteroplasmy mutations remain comparatively healthy.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  24. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Enhancing lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA) activity in aged hair follicle stem cells will promote exit from quiescence and restore entry into the growth phase. Mechanism: Increased conversion of pyruvate to lactate regenerates cytosolic NAD+, sustaining the glycolytic flux required for stem-cell activation and subsequent progenitor expansion. Prediction: Stem-cell-specific LDHA enhancement will increase glycolytic flux before proliferation and accelerate hair regrowth. A catalytically inactive LDHA control will fail, while an independent intervention that restores cytosolic NAD+ recycling will reproduce the effect.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  25. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Transient enhancement of FOXM1 in aged hair follicle stem cells will restore productive cell-cycle progression and thereby improve hair regeneration. Mechanism: FOXM1 increases expression of DNA-replication, chromosome-segregation, and mitotic genes, enabling activated stem cells to generate sufficient progenitors for sustained follicular growth. Prediction: FOXM1 enhancement will increase completed stem-cell divisions and hair-shaft production without necessarily increasing early Wnt signaling. A DNA-binding-defective FOXM1 variant will fail, and lineage tracing will show expansion followed by appropriate differentiation rather than persistent undifferentiated proliferation.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  26. Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Transient enhancement of β-catenin transcriptional activity in aged follicular stem and hair-germ cells will overcome an intrinsic activation threshold and restore hair production. Mechanism: Nuclear β-catenin activates TCF/LEF-dependent transcription, initiating the progenitor proliferation and differentiation program needed for the resting-to-growth transition. Prediction: A brief, lineage-restricted β-catenin pulse will restore anagen and hair-shaft production even during extracellular Wnt inhibition. Disrupting β-catenin–TCF/LEF transcriptional coupling will eliminate this rescue.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  27. By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Excess adiposity promotes osteoarthritis by increasing adipocyte-derived complement factor D, also called adipsin, which amplifies complement activation within damaged joints. Blocking this adipose-to-joint complement pathway will reduce cartilage degeneration. Mechanism: Circulating factor D supports alternative-pathway complement amplification on injured cartilage, increasing C5a-mediated inflammation and C5b-9 deposition on chondrocytes. Sublytic C5b-9 induces cartilage-degrading enzymes, while stronger activation causes cell death. Prediction: Adipocyte-specific factor D deletion will lower joint complement deposition and cartilage damage without reducing fat mass. Restoring circulating catalytically active factor D, but not an inactive variant, will reverse protection; chondrocyte resistance to membrane attack complex formation will attenuate the cartilage response despite persistent circulating factor D.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  28. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

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    Age-associated mitochondrial damage in granulosa cells initiates ovarian inflammation by releasing mitochondrial DNA into the cytosol. The resulting cGAS–STING activation propagates inflammatory signaling to neighboring follicular cells and promotes follicular atresia. Mechanism: Impaired mitochondrial quality control permits mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS–STING–TBK1/IRF3 and NF-κB. Secreted type I interferons and inflammatory cytokines impair granulosa-cell steroidogenesis and oocyte support. Prediction: Inducible granulosa-cell-specific deletion of cGAS or STING after follicle formation reduces inflammation and preserves follicle survival and steroidogenesis despite persistent mitochondrial respiratory defects. Cytosolic mitochondrial DNA accumulation precedes cytokine induction, distinguishing this mechanism from inflammation secondary to follicular death.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  29. How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Chronic mitochondrial oxidant production in ovarian stromal cells initiates a senescence-associated inflammatory secretory program that progressively damages otherwise functional follicles. The stromal response sustains ovarian decline after the initiating mitochondrial stress has subsided. Mechanism: Mitochondrial reactive oxygen species induce persistent nuclear DNA damage and senescence, activating p38 MAPK and NF-κB-dependent cytokine secretion. Stromal cytokines recruit inflammatory cells, promote fibrosis, and impair follicular growth and steroidogenesis. Prediction: Selective clearance of senescent stromal cells after mitochondrial stress has been withdrawn restores follicular growth and lowers inflammation even when follicular mitochondrial function remains unchanged. Previously stressed stromal cells continue to impair healthy follicles in coculture, whereas blocking their inflammatory secretory program prevents this effect.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  30. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    Early mutation correction produces greater skeletal rescue because it preserves the osteogenic progenitor pool before progerin causes persistent senescence or progenitor depletion. Late correction restores function in surviving cells but cannot fully replenish lost bone-forming capacity. Mechanism: Cumulative progerin exposure reduces the abundance and clonogenic potential of skeletal progenitors, creating a cellular limitation that persists after mutation correction. Prediction: At matched correction efficiency and post-treatment follow-up, early-treated animals retain more clonogenic skeletal progenitors and achieve greater bone formation than late-treated animals. Supplementing corrected progenitors preferentially improves the late-treatment response.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  31. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    In vivo correction of the HGPS-causing LMNA mutation in osteoblast-lineage cells rescues bone formation by reducing progerin-induced nuclear damage. This molecular and cellular rescue remains possible after skeletal abnormalities have developed. Mechanism: Corrected LMNA splicing lowers progerin abundance, restores nuclear organization, and reduces DNA-damage signaling, enabling osteoblast differentiation and matrix mineralization. Prediction: After treatment of established disease, corrected osteoblast-lineage cells show reduced progerin and DNA-damage markers followed by increased mineral apposition. Bone-targeted correction produces these benefits without requiring correction in other organs.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  32. Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Late mutation correction can restore bone-cell function while leaving a substantial mechanical deficit because established skeletal geometry and accumulated matrix damage require prolonged remodeling to reverse. Early treatment is more effective structurally because it prevents these defects during skeletal growth. Mechanism: Cellular recovery occurs faster than replacement of damaged matrix or reconstruction of cortical and trabecular architecture, producing a delay between molecular rescue and mechanical recovery. Prediction: With comparable progerin reduction and normalized bone-formation indices, late-treated animals retain greater cortical porosity, architectural abnormalities, and reduced fracture resistance than early-treated animals. Extended follow-up improves matrix quality more readily than established bone shape.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  33. What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    Natural cis-regulatory variation at OsLOX3 causes differences in rice seed longevity by altering lipoxygenase abundance in mature seeds. Alleles that reduce seed-specific OsLOX3 expression extend survival during storage. Mechanism: Reduced lipoxygenase activity limits oxidation of polyunsaturated fatty acids, slowing membrane damage and the accumulation of reactive lipid-derived aldehydes. Prediction: Reciprocal replacement of the OsLOX3 promoter between short- and long-lived varieties reverses their longevity ranking in a shared genetic background, with lipid oxidation preceding viability loss. Seed-specific complementation restores the short-lived phenotype without changing dormancy.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  34. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Dihydrotestosterone exacerbates mitochondrial damage and senescence in susceptible scalp dermal papilla cells by promoting mitochondrial translocation of p66Shc. This creates a mitochondrial source of hydrogen peroxide that amplifies androgen-induced oxidative stress. Mechanism: Androgen receptor signaling activates a PKCβ-dependent pathway that phosphorylates p66Shc at Ser36, enabling its mitochondrial accumulation and oxidation of cytochrome c. The resulting hydrogen peroxide promotes membrane depolarization, DNA damage and p53–p21-mediated senescence. Prediction: Selective p66Shc depletion would reduce mitochondrial hydrogen peroxide, respiratory impairment and persistent senescence after dihydrotestosterone exposure. Re-expression of wild-type p66Shc, but not a Ser36 phosphorylation-deficient mutant, would restore these phenotypes despite comparable androgen receptor activation.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  35. What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Dihydrotestosterone suppresses SIRT3-dependent mitochondrial antioxidant protection in dermal papilla cells, making oxidative damage and senescence more severe. Loss of SIRT3 activity is a causal amplifier rather than merely a consequence of mitochondrial injury. Mechanism: Androgen receptor signaling lowers SIRT3 abundance or activity, increasing SOD2 acetylation and reducing superoxide detoxification. Accumulating mitochondrial superoxide damages respiratory machinery and activates a persistent DNA-damage response. Prediction: Reduced SIRT3 activity and increased SOD2 acetylation would precede respiratory failure. Catalytically active SIRT3, but not an inactive mutant, would rescue mitochondrial function and senescence; an acetylation-resistant SOD2 variant would reproduce a substantial part of that rescue without suppressing androgen receptor signaling.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra.

  36. What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

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    Defective mitophagy in colonic CD4+ T cells induces pathogenic senescence in ulcerative colitis by allowing damaged mitochondria to release DNA into the cytosol. The resulting senescent cells causally worsen epithelial injury through persistent inflammatory secretion. Mechanism: Impaired PINK1–Parkin mitochondrial clearance causes cytosolic mitochondrial DNA accumulation, cGAS–STING activation, and sustained DNA-damage signaling that establishes a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: Restoring mitophagy or deleting cGAS specifically in CD4+ T cells should prevent senescence and attenuate experimental colitis. Transfer of viable, established senescent T cells should restore disease severity despite correction of the initiating mitophagy defect.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  37. Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Mesenchymal stromal cell–derived extracellular vesicles (MSC-EVs) alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging by restoring PINK1–Parkin-dependent mitophagy in keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts. Clearance of damaged mitochondria reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA, suppressing cGAS–STING signaling and the inflammatory reinforcement of cellular senescence. Mechanism: MSC-EVs increase mitochondrial delivery to lysosomes, reducing mitochondrial DNA leakage and downstream STING–TBK1–IRF3 signaling. Prediction: Protection is lost after PINK1 or PRKN disruption despite equivalent EV uptake; cGAS deletion rescues the inflammatory phenotype downstream of defective mitophagy. Increased mitophagic flux precedes reduced cytosolic mitochondrial DNA, senescence, and collagen degradation.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  38. Does the transmembrane protein investigated in this study causally regulate cellular senescence and age-related tissue pathology, and through what signaling mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

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    The investigated transmembrane protein promotes cellular senescence by sustaining growth signaling after cellular damage. Its loss reduces senescence-associated inflammation and age-related tissue pathology. Mechanism: The protein activates PI3K–AKT–mTORC1 signaling, sustaining anabolic activity and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype (SASP) during damage-induced cell-cycle arrest. Prediction: Inducible loss of the protein reduces mTORC1 activity, persistent senescence markers, and SASP output under matched damage conditions; constitutively active Rheb restores these effects. Deletion in aged animals improves tissue function without increasing proliferation of damaged cells.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  39. What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    Iron-dependent lipid peroxidation actively executes motor-neuron death in SOD1G93A mice and contributes to shortened survival. Mechanism: Mutant SOD1-associated oxidative stress overwhelms neuronal glutathione–GPX4 defenses, allowing iron-catalyzed oxidation of membrane phospholipids to trigger ferroptosis. Prediction: Inducible motor-neuron-specific ACSL4 deletion reduces oxidized phospholipids before neuronal loss, preserves innervation and extends survival despite continued inflammatory activation.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  40. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Progerin-induced loss of lamina-associated heterochromatin promotes cytoplasmic chromatin accumulation, activating cGAS–STING signaling that reinforces senescence and its inflammatory secretory phenotype. Suppressing this pathway after disease onset will reduce tissue dysfunction and extend survival in a progeria mouse model. Mechanism: Defective chromatin anchoring and nuclear-envelope instability expose genomic DNA to cytoplasmic cGAS, driving STING–TBK1–IRF3 and NF-κB signaling. Prediction: Inducible cGAS deletion will reduce inflammatory secretion and improve vascular pathology and survival despite persistent progerin expression and nuclear deformation; restoring STING signaling downstream of cGAS will reverse the cellular benefit.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  41. What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Loss of heterochromatic repression in progeria derepresses LINE-1 retrotransposons, whose reverse-transcribed DNA activates innate immune signaling and accelerates senescence. Blocking LINE-1 reverse transcription will reduce inflammation and extend lifespan without requiring restoration of nuclear architecture. Mechanism: Reduced H3K9me3-dependent silencing permits LINE-1 expression and cytoplasmic accumulation of LINE-1-derived DNA, activating cGAS–STING and inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Genetic disruption of LINE-1 reverse-transcriptase activity will reduce cytoplasmic LINE-1 DNA, inflammatory secretion, and secondary senescence while leaving nuclear rupture frequency largely unchanged. Reverse-transcriptase-competent, but not catalytically inactive, LINE-1 will restore these phenotypes, distinguishing this mechanism from leakage of genomic chromatin.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  42. What developmentally established epigenetic mechanism preserves metabolic readiness for rapid immune activation, and how is it disrupted during ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    During T-cell development, metabolic gene promoters acquire H3K4me2 marks that persist in resting naive T cells and enable rapid transcription after antigen recognition. Ageing erodes these marks, delaying metabolic activation despite preserved proximal receptor signalling. Mechanism: Developmentally deposited H3K4me2 maintains promoters of mitochondrial biogenesis and nutrient-utilization genes in a permissive state, accelerating recruitment of transcriptional machinery upon activation. Prediction: In phenotypically matched aged naive T cells, targeted restoration of H3K4me2 at affected promoters rescues early metabolic gene induction and subsequent proliferation without increasing baseline activation; targeted removal in young cells reproduces the defect.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  43. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    Female midlife endocrine changes increase hepatic production of circulating C16:0 ceramide, which transmits peripheral metabolic stress to the brain. Excess ceramide drives mitochondrial dysfunction and establishes a self-sustaining glial senescence-associated state. Mechanism: Reduced hepatic estrogen signaling increases ceramide synthesis and lipoprotein-associated export. Uptake at the neurovascular unit increases mitochondrial membrane stress, impairs insulin–AKT signaling, and promotes oxidative damage and inflammatory glial responses. Prediction: Hepatocyte-specific CerS6 suppression would lower circulating C16:0 ceramide and rescue brain phenotypes without correcting ovarian hormone loss. Restoring circulating C16:0 ceramide in matched lipoprotein particles would abolish that rescue.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  44. What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    During female midlife, declining ovarian estradiol increases adipose-derived extracellular vesicles carrying miR-34a, which impair mitochondrial maintenance in the brain. This circulating signal promotes glial senescence and cognitive vulnerability. Mechanism: Estradiol withdrawal increases adipocyte stress and vesicular miR-34a export. Brain uptake suppresses SIRT1–PGC-1α signaling, reducing mitochondrial biogenesis and increasing reactive oxygen species and senescence-associated inflammatory signaling. Prediction: Adipocyte-specific deletion of miR-34a would preserve brain mitochondrial function and cognition during ovarian ageing without restoring estradiol. Equal numbers of adipose vesicles from midlife females would transfer these defects to recipients, whereas miR-34a-depleted vesicles would not.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  45. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-associated loss of NAD+ impairs cardiac mitochondrial quality control through reduced SIRT1-dependent activation of the autophagy machinery. Restoring cardiomyocyte NAD+ will reverse established mitochondrial and contractile defects only when SIRT1-mediated autophagosome formation is preserved. Mechanism: Reduced SIRT1 activity increases inhibitory acetylation of autophagy proteins, limiting the formation of autophagosomes capable of capturing damaged mitochondria. Prediction: NAD+ restoration will reduce autophagy-protein acetylation and improve mitochondrial degradation and cardiac function in aged control mice, but not in cardiomyocyte-specific Sirt1-deficient mice, even if NAD+ concentrations rise similarly.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  46. What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Persistent mTORC1 activation in aged cardiomyocytes suppresses TFEB-dependent lysosomal renewal, making terminal degradation the principal bottleneck in mitochondrial quality-control flux. Restoring TFEB activity will clear accumulated mitochondrial cargo and reverse cardiac dysfunction more effectively than increasing mitophagy initiation alone. Mechanism: Reduced TFEB nuclear activity lowers lysosomal degradative capacity, allowing mitochondrial cargo to accumulate despite continued recognition and sequestration. Prediction: Inducible TFEB activation in aged cardiomyocytes will increase lysosomal proteolysis and mitochondrial cargo clearance and improve relaxation despite unchanged initial mitochondrial ubiquitination. Increasing Parkin alone will instead increase sequestered cargo without comparable functional recovery.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  47. Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Gut microbial communities from older human donors impair intestinal barrier function by producing less butyrate than communities from younger donors. Reduced epithelial butyrate availability causally alters mucosal gene expression and promotes systemic metabolic dysfunction. Mechanism: Loss of microbial butyrate production reduces colonocyte oxidative metabolism and protective hypoxia signaling, weakening junctional integrity and increasing translocation of inflammatory microbial products. Prediction: Under identical diets, germ-free mice colonized with older-donor communities exhibit lower colonic butyrate, increased permeability, and impaired glucose tolerance. Restoring microbial butyrate production rescues these outcomes, whereas matched communities carrying a disrupted butyrate-synthesis pathway do not.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  48. Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    A commensal nominated by integrated human ageing profiles extends remaining lifespan and preserves physical function when administered alive to aged mice. Its benefit requires ongoing microbial metabolism rather than exposure to inert microbial components. Mechanism: Viable organisms produce metabolites that improve intestinal barrier integrity, reduce systemic inflammation and slow functional decline. Prediction: Live organisms reproducibly improve survival, frailty and muscle performance relative to vehicle and heat-killed organisms under matched food intake. A metabolically impaired strain loses efficacy despite comparable intestinal abundance.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  49. What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces neurotrophic support from adipose stromal cells, causing sympathetic axon loss and insufficient norepinephrine delivery to subcutaneous white adipose tissue. This loss of local innervation limits the recruitment and maintenance of thermogenic beige adipocytes. Mechanism: Reduced stromal nerve growth factor production impairs sympathetic terminal maintenance, lowering cold-induced adrenergic stimulation of adjacent adipocytes. Prediction: Restoring stromal nerve growth factor in aged mice restores sympathetic axon density, local norepinephrine release, and cold-induced beige adipocytes; sympathetic denervation abolishes this rescue. Preserved responses to direct beta-adrenergic stimulation would distinguish this mechanism from adipocyte-intrinsic resistance.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  50. Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Direct pharmacological activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) is sufficient to extend adult lifespan in evolutionarily diverse organisms, including nematodes and flies, and improve metabolic resilience in aged mice. Mechanism: Binding to a conserved regulatory site activates AMPK without first causing energy depletion, shifting metabolism toward cellular maintenance. Prediction: A biochemically validated activator increases lifespan in worms and flies and improves insulin sensitivity in aged mice without lowering cellular ATP. These benefits disappear with an AMPK mutation that selectively prevents drug binding while preserving normal kinase function.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  51. What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Excessive endoplasmic-reticulum–mitochondrial calcium transfer drives fibroblast senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma. Pharmacological disruption of the IP3R–GRP75–VDAC1 contact complex should reduce senescence-associated signaling and matrix production. Mechanism: Increased organelle coupling causes mitochondrial calcium overload, oxidative stress and persistent DNA damage, inducing a senescence-associated secretory phenotype that reinforces profibrotic signaling. Prediction: Patient-derived fibroblasts should show increased mitochondrial calcium uptake preceding senescence. Disrupting the complex should reduce these changes, whereas experimentally restoring mitochondrial calcium overload should negate the benefit without restoring organelle coupling.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  52. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Hypertension raises intraosseous pressure in subchondral bone, producing abnormal osteochondral strain that accelerates cartilage loss after aging or injury has weakened the matrix. Mechanism: Increased vascular filtration within poorly compliant subchondral bone elevates interstitial pressure and alters fluid movement across the osteochondral interface, activating PIEZO1-dependent calcium overload and catabolic signaling in chondrocytes. Prediction: Measured intraosseous pressure and chondrocyte calcium activity rise before accelerated degeneration. Local pressure normalization or inducible chondrocyte-specific PIEZO1 deletion prevents excess cartilage loss while systemic hypertension persists and subchondral oxygenation remains comparable.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  53. Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Hypertension accelerates osteoarthritis by compromising subchondral microvascular perfusion in joints already damaged by aging or injury. Repeated ischemia and reperfusion drive pathological bone remodeling that increases stress on overlying cartilage. Mechanism: Pressure-induced arteriolar remodeling and endothelial dysfunction reduce subchondral perfusion, causing osteocyte injury, abnormal bone turnover, and eventual sclerosis that disrupts cartilage load distribution. Prediction: Subchondral perfusion defects precede accelerated cartilage loss, and restoring local endothelial function protects cartilage despite persistent hypertension. Protection tracks normalization of bone remodeling rather than suppression of synovial inflammation.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  54. How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

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    Glucose scarcity drives adoptively transferred antitumor T cells into senescence when sustained energy stress converts adaptive AMPK signaling into persistent p38–p53–p21 activation. This durable cell-cycle arrest prevents expansion and replenishment of the transferred population. Mechanism: Reduced glycolytic ATP production elevates the AMP:ATP ratio, sustaining AMPK-dependent stress signaling and p38 activation. Persistent p53 stabilization induces CDKN1A/p21 and establishes an arrest that remains after glucose availability improves. Prediction: Under matched glucose deprivation, inducible disruption of the AMPK–p38 signaling connection prevents persistent p21 induction and restores proliferation after nutrient replenishment despite equivalent initial ATP depletion. Protection without correction of oxidative damage would favor energy-stress signaling over a primary redox mechanism.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  55. What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    Age-related impairment of transcription termination drives polymerase readthrough across nearby architectural boundaries, redistributing cohesin and weakening insulation. The resulting contacts activate neighboring inflammatory genes and create a self-reinforcing transcriptional circuit. Mechanism: Defective cleavage or termination allows elongating RNA polymerase II to invade boundary regions, displace boundary-associated proteins, and shift cohesin positioning, exposing adjacent promoters to inappropriate enhancers. Prediction: Installing an efficient termination cassette upstream of an affected boundary should restore local architecture and reduce neighboring inflammatory transcription while preserving expression of the initiating gene. Degrading the readthrough RNA without stopping polymerase passage should fail to rescue the boundary.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  56. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    A conserved shift from very-long-chain to shorter-chain ceramides actively constrains lifespan. The relative activity of ceramide synthases with different acyl-chain preferences controls this shift. Mechanism: Accumulation of shorter-chain ceramides disrupts mitochondrial function and promotes stress signaling, while loss of very-long-chain species compromises protective membrane organization. Prediction: Adult manipulation of ceramide-synthase specificity restores a youthful chain-length distribution and extends lifespan in two species despite unchanged total ceramide abundance. Reinstating the age-associated chain-length distribution reverses the benefit.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  57. Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

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    An age-associated increase in the phosphatidylcholine-to-phosphatidylethanolamine ratio actively limits lifespan by restricting autophagic membrane function. Declining PCYT2-dependent phosphatidylethanolamine synthesis is a conserved control point. Mechanism: Reduced phosphatidylethanolamine availability impairs ATG8-family protein lipidation and autophagosome membrane dynamics, decreasing clearance of damaged cellular components. Prediction: Adult restoration of PCYT2 or its functional ortholog normalizes phospholipid balance, increases autophagic flux and extends lifespan across two species. Disrupting ATG8 lipidation eliminates lifespan extension despite successful correction of lipid composition.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon.

  58. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces gut microbial production of butyrate, weakening alveolar macrophage antiviral responses during influenza infection. Restoring butyrate availability rescues protection by relieving epigenetic repression of interferon-response genes. Mechanism: Reduced butyrate exposure increases histone deacetylase activity in alveolar macrophages, limiting chromatin accessibility at antiviral loci and diminishing their response to type I interferon. Prediction: In young germ-free recipients, aged-donor microbiota lowers butyrate availability and worsens influenza control. Physiological butyrate replacement or macrophage-targeted histone deacetylase inhibition restores antiviral chromatin accessibility and reduces viral burden; rescue persists without FFAR2 but disappears after macrophage-specific IFNAR1 deletion.

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    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  59. Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related loss of microbial desaminotyrosine production reduces tonic type I interferon signaling, leaving pulmonary immune cells poorly prepared for influenza infection. Reconstituting this metabolic activity before infection restores antiviral protection. Mechanism: Insufficient microbial conversion of dietary flavonoids into desaminotyrosine lowers basal IFNAR-dependent expression of antiviral effectors in lung immune cells. Prediction: Under a controlled flavonoid diet, a desaminotyrosine-producing strain, but not an otherwise matched production-deficient mutant, restores basal lung interferon-stimulated gene expression and lowers influenza viral burden in recipients of aged microbiota. Metabolite supplementation reproduces the benefit, which requires host IFNAR signaling.

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    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra.

  60. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Adventitial fibroblasts are the principal source of excess vascular collagen, but their fibrotic activation depends primarily on signals from mutant smooth-muscle cells rather than on their own LMNA mutation. Mechanism: Stressed mutant smooth-muscle cells activate fibroblast TGF-β–SMAD signaling, inducing myofibroblast differentiation and collagen synthesis. Prediction: Wild-type fibroblasts accumulate collagen when paired with mutant smooth-muscle cells, whereas mutant fibroblasts paired with corrected smooth-muscle cells show substantially less fibrosis. Fibroblast-specific TGF-β receptor inhibition suppresses lineage-traced collagen production without correcting medial cell loss.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  61. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Progerin expression in medial vascular smooth-muscle cells directly causes elastic-matrix disorganization and medial cell loss, independently of mutations in the other vessel-wall compartments. Mechanism: Progerin-induced nuclear fragility impairs smooth-muscle-cell survival and elastic-matrix maintenance under pulsatile mechanical stress. Prediction: In layered vessels with independently controlled compartment genotypes, mutant smooth-muscle cells produce medial cell loss and elastic-matrix defects despite wild-type endothelium and adventitial fibroblasts. Smooth-muscle-specific LMNA correction rescues these defects under matched pressure and flow.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  62. How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Endothelial progerin independently initiates vascular inflammation by increasing leukocyte adhesion and transendothelial migration. Mechanism: Endothelial nuclear damage activates cGAS–STING and NF-κB signaling, increasing adhesion-molecule expression and compromising barrier integrity. Prediction: Vessels containing mutant endothelium and wild-type supporting layers exhibit increased leukocyte recruitment under matched flow. Endothelial-specific LMNA correction or STING inhibition reduces recruitment even when mutant smooth-muscle cells and fibroblasts remain present.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  63. Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Time-restricted feeding protects against accelerated cardiovascular ageing by restoring intestinal barrier integrity and reducing circulating microbial inflammatory products. Reduced endotoxin exposure suppresses vascular macrophage inflammasome activation and subsequent endothelial injury. Mechanism: A consistent feeding–fasting cycle restores intestinal epithelial clock function and tight-junction maintenance, reducing lipopolysaccharide translocation and TLR4-dependent priming of NLRP3–caspase-1–gasdermin D signaling in vascular macrophages. Prediction: Under matched caloric intake, restoring circulating lipopolysaccharide to unrestricted-feeding levels eliminates vascular protection despite preserved feeding rhythms. Intestinal barrier restoration in unrestricted-fed animals reproduces protection, and myeloid NLRP3 deletion prevents the adverse effect of lipopolysaccharide restoration.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  64. What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    A shift in H2AFY splicing from macroH2A1.1 toward macroH2A1.2 enables cancer cells to escape the stable senescence normally induced by CDK4/6 inhibition. Restoring macroH2A1.1 will convert reversible treatment-associated arrest into durable senescence. Mechanism: Loss of the ADP-ribose-binding macroH2A1.1 isoform disrupts chromatin regulation needed to stabilize the senescent state. Prediction: At matched total macroH2A1 abundance, macroH2A1.1 restoration will suppress clonogenic recovery after inhibitor withdrawal, whereas macroH2A1.2 will not. A macroH2A1.1 mutant defective in ADP-ribose binding will fail to reproduce this effect.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  65. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Inducing a constitutively nuclear HLH-30 transcription factor in adult C. elegans will preserve lysosomal clearance capacity, delay proteostasis failure, and extend functional lifespan. Mechanism: Sustained HLH-30 activity coordinately increases lysosomal biogenesis, hydrolase expression, and autophagic cargo delivery, preventing clearance capacity from falling below the burden of damaged proteins. Prediction: The intervention will increase lysosomal degradative capacity and autophagic flux even when lysosomal pH remains unchanged. A DNA-binding-defective HLH-30 variant will fail, and adult-onset disruption of autophagosome–lysosome fusion will eliminate the proteostasis and lifespan benefits.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  66. Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Adult-onset intestinal overexpression of the lysosomal V-ATPase subunit VHA-13 in Caenorhabditis elegans will preserve lysosomal acidification during aging, reduce protein aggregation, and extend lifespan while maintaining locomotor function. Mechanism: Increased VHA-13 availability sustains functional proton-pump assembly, maintaining the acidic lumen required for lysosomal proteolysis and autophagic cargo degradation. Prediction: Lysosomal pH normalization will precede improved autophagic flux and reduced aggregation. Disrupting V-ATPase assembly will abolish these benefits despite maintained VHA-13 expression, supporting acidification as the causal mechanism.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  67. Which metabolic regulator causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment, and through what molecular mechanism does it suppress cellular senescence and inflammation?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Restoring nicotinamide phosphoribosyltransferase (NAMPT) activity in astrocytes mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment by replenishing intracellular NAD+ and preventing senescence. The relevant protective activity is intracellular NAD+ salvage rather than extracellular NAMPT signaling. Mechanism: Increased intracellular NAMPT restores NAD+-dependent SIRT1 activity, supports genome maintenance, and reduces acetylation-dependent NF-κB transcription. Reduced persistent DNA damage and inflammatory secretion limit astrocyte senescence and secondary microglial activation. Prediction: Catalytically active, intracellularly retained NAMPT improves astrocytic NAD+, senescence measures, and memory, whereas catalytically inactive NAMPT does not. Astrocytic SIRT1 deletion abolishes protection despite restored NAD+, while extracellular NAMPT neutralization leaves protection intact.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  68. Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Naturally occurring mitochondrial DNA variants alter ovarian ageing rates on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds by changing oxidative damage in primordial oocytes. Variants that increase mitochondrial electron leakage accelerate follicle loss despite comparable initial ovarian reserves. Mechanism: Elevated mitochondrial reactive oxygen species cause oocyte DNA damage, activate the TAp63-dependent apoptotic checkpoint and increase primordial follicle death. Prediction: The faster-ageing mitochondrial genotype produces oxidative damage and checkpoint activation before accelerated follicle depletion. Oocyte-targeted suppression of mitochondrial oxidative damage preferentially rescues its follicle-loss rate without changing follicle recruitment.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  69. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 4 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing reduces MFSD2A expression in strial endothelial cells, increasing transcellular transport across the blood-labyrinth barrier before tight junctions deteriorate. Entry of circulating proteins disrupts strial function and contributes to hearing loss. Mechanism: Loss of MFSD2A-dependent endothelial lipid transport alters membrane lipid composition and releases suppression of caveolae-mediated transcytosis, allowing excessive vascular protein passage into strial tissue. Prediction: Early ageing should increase tracer-containing endothelial vesicles and abluminal tracer delivery while junctional ultrastructure remains intact. Endothelial MFSD2A restoration should normalize these changes and preserve endocochlear potential and hearing, whereas a transport-deficient MFSD2A variant should fail.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  70. What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related mitochondrial damage in strial endothelial cells activates cGAS–STING signaling, causing inflammatory disruption of the blood-labyrinth barrier. The resulting disturbance of strial ion homeostasis lowers the endocochlear potential and impairs hearing. Mechanism: Mitochondrial DNA escapes into the endothelial cytoplasm and activates cGAS–STING, inducing inflammatory signaling that reduces junctional claudin-5 and redistributes ZO-1, increasing paracellular permeability. Prediction: Inducible endothelial-specific Sting1 deletion before substantial cochlear degeneration should preserve junction organization, reduce vascular tracer leakage, and preserve endocochlear potential and auditory brainstem response thresholds despite persistent mitochondrial damage. Rescue without restored pericyte coverage would favor this mechanism over primary pericyte failure.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  71. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Transient, mild proteasome inhibition extends adult C. elegans lifespan by triggering a compensatory SKN-1A-dependent increase in proteasome capacity. The resulting degradation of soluble damaged proteins prevents their subsequent aggregation during ageing. Mechanism: Proteasome stress promotes DDI-1-dependent processing of the endoplasmic-reticulum-associated transcription factor SKN-1A, inducing proteasome subunits and increasing assembled, active proteasomes after the stress ends. Prediction: Following inhibitor washout, stressed animals show faster turnover of pre-existing proteasome substrates before aggregate burden declines. Adult-specific loss of SKN-1A or DDI-1 eliminates this turnover increase and longevity benefit; processed SKN-1A bypasses DDI-1 loss.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  72. Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Mild heat stress preserves proteostasis and extends lifespan in Caenorhabditis elegans by activating an HSF-1-dependent selective autophagy program. Induction of the cargo receptor SQST-1 is required to connect the stress response to removal of aggregation-prone proteins. Mechanism: HSF-1 increases sqst-1 transcription; SQST-1 captures ubiquitinated damaged proteins and binds LGG-1 on autophagosomes, delivering the cargo to lysosomes for degradation. Prediction: Disrupting the stress-responsive HSF-1 binding site in the sqst-1 promoter abolishes stress-induced aggregate clearance and lifespan extension while preserving chaperone induction. Stress-independent expression of wild-type SQST-1 restores both benefits, whereas variants defective in ubiquitin or LGG-1 binding do not.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  73. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1-mediated L1 repression primarily restrains the inflammatory phenotype of senescent cells rather than preventing their initial growth arrest. Mechanism: Reduced L1 expression limits accumulation of reverse-transcribed L1 DNA in the cytoplasm, decreasing cGAS–STING signaling and the senescence-associated secretory phenotype. Prediction: In already senescent cells, restoring SIRT1 or selectively suppressing L1 decreases cytoplasmic L1 DNA and inflammatory secretion without restoring proliferation. Disabling cGAS–STING removes the additional anti-inflammatory benefit of L1 suppression while leaving upstream L1 abundance largely unchanged.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5.

  74. How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    SIRT1 directly represses L1 transcription by deacetylating histones at L1 promoters, thereby limiting L1-dependent DNA damage and senescence initiation. Mechanism: Promoter-associated SIRT1 removes activating histone acetylation, reduces chromatin accessibility, and suppresses transcription of intact L1 elements. Prediction: Loss of SIRT1 increases promoter acetylation and nascent L1 transcription before senescence develops. Catalytically active SIRT1 restores repression, whereas catalytically inactive SIRT1 does not; selective L1 suppression partially prevents the subsequent stable growth arrest.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  75. Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Stress-induced sympathetic activity suppresses protective calcitonin gene-related peptide release from marrow sensory fibers, allowing osteogenic progenitors to become senescent. Non-invasive stimulation of the corresponding peripheral sensory nerve restores osteogenesis by replenishing local peptide signaling. Mechanism: Norepinephrine inhibits sensory-terminal peptide release through presynaptic α2-adrenergic receptors. Loss of CGRP signaling through stromal CALCRL–RAMP1 receptors weakens mitochondrial antioxidant defenses, increasing DNA damage and stable cell-cycle arrest. Prediction: Peripheral sensory stimulation restores marrow CGRP and osteogenesis even when norepinephrine remains elevated, but its benefit disappears after stromal Ramp1 deletion. Local CGRP replacement mimics stimulation, and sensory-neuron-specific disruption of inhibitory α2-adrenergic signaling prevents the stress-induced CGRP decline.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  76. What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Senescent cells drive skeletal-muscle dysfunction by increasing CD38-dependent NAD+ consumption in the local tissue environment. Restoring muscle NAD+ availability reverses mitochondrial impairment and improves strength even before senescent-cell abundance declines. Mechanism: Senescence-associated inflammatory signals induce CD38 in muscle-resident immune cells, increasing NAD+ turnover and limiting NAD+ availability in neighboring myofibers. Reduced mitochondrial NAD+ compromises oxidative metabolism and SIRT3-dependent maintenance of mitochondrial enzymes. Prediction: After muscle dysfunction is established, immune-cell-specific CD38 inhibition restores myofiber mitochondrial NAD+, ATP-linked respiration and specific force despite persistent senescence markers. Preventing mitochondrial NAD+ replenishment abolishes this rescue, distinguishing NAD+ depletion from a purely inflammatory mechanism.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  77. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Senescent maternal decidual stromal cells release excess TGF-β that induces senescence and dysfunction in fetal placental endothelial cells, creating hypoxia that subsequently drives trophoblast senescence. Blocking endothelial TGF-β signalling should interrupt this amplification loop and improve fetal growth and later offspring vascular health. Mechanism: Maternal TGF-β activates endothelial TGF-β receptor–SMAD signalling, restricting placental vascular expansion; reduced oxygen delivery then causes trophoblast mitochondrial stress and persistent DNA damage. Prediction: Endothelial senescence and perfusion defects should precede trophoblast senescence. Fetal endothelial-specific TGF-β receptor disruption should restore oxygen delivery and prevent downstream trophoblast senescence despite continued maternal TGF-β production, whereas trophoblast-specific receptor disruption should provide substantially less protection.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Grok 4.5.

  78. What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Age-related glycolytic reprogramming in maternal decidual stromal cells produces excessive lactate that drives premature senescence in adjacent trophoblast progenitors. Reducing maternal lactate export or trophoblast lactate uptake should restore placental development and offspring growth. Mechanism: Stromal lactate export and trophoblast uptake increase histone lactylation at inflammatory and senescence-associated loci, stabilizing a pathological transcriptional programme. Prediction: Maternal stromal lactate should contribute directly to trophoblast histone lactylation before senescence develops. Blocking stromal lactate export should protect trophoblasts, and pH-controlled lactate replacement should restore senescence only when trophoblast lactate uptake remains functional.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon.

  79. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    A majority of the judges awarded the selected article-correspondence score.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    A soluble uPAR×CD3 bispecific immune engager can selectively eliminate uPAR-high senescent cells in aged mice and non-human primates within an exposure range that spares essential nonsenescent cells. Mechanism: Simultaneous binding to uPAR on target cells and CD3 on T cells triggers cytotoxic synapses preferentially above a target-antigen density threshold. Dose titration exploits a proposed difference in uPAR density between senescent cells and healthy tissues. Prediction: Both species show an exposure interval with loss of independently verified senescent cells and preserved healthy tissue function. Target blockade or a CD3-binding-deficient engager abolishes killing; equivalent killing of uPAR-low healthy cells would contradict the proposed selectivity.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  80. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 5 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    The early post-dose rise in circulating interleukin-6 can guide safer dosing by identifying excessive immune activation before overt organ injury develops. Mechanism: Engager-driven T-cell activation recruits a secondary myeloid inflammatory response that releases interleukin-6. An excessive or sustained increase signals that immune activation has exceeded the exposure needed for selective senolysis. Prediction: In each species, baseline-adjusted interleukin-6 trajectories prospectively predict subsequent clinical or biochemical toxicity beyond drug exposure and baseline inflammation. A prespecified dose-holding rule based on this measurement reduces toxicity while preserving senescent-cell clearance compared with fixed dosing; elevations restricted to effective, nontoxic treatment would invalidate its proposed discriminatory value.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  81. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 2 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Intermittent exposure to a rapidly cleared immune engager preserves senolytic efficacy while reducing systemic toxicity relative to continuous exposure in both species. Mechanism: Brief exposure commits target cells to apoptosis, whereas sustained exposure prolongs T-cell activation and cytokine production. Drug clearance therefore terminates further immune recruitment after sufficient target killing has occurred. Prediction: At comparable senescent-cell depletion, intermittent treatment produces less sustained cytokine elevation and organ injury than continuous treatment. T-cell activation declines after withdrawal; persistent activation despite drug clearance would undermine external controllability.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  82. Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?

    Hypothesis 3 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Engager-mediated removal of senescent stromal cells improves age-related tissue dysfunction by durably reducing their inflammatory and profibrotic secretions. Mechanism: Eliminating the cellular source of the senescence-associated secretory phenotype reduces recruitment of inflammatory cells and activation of matrix-producing fibroblasts, allowing tissue remodeling to subside. Prediction: In aged mice and primates with baseline fibrotic pathology, verified stromal-cell depletion precedes reduced tissue inflammatory signaling, reduced collagen accumulation, and improved organ function after drug washout. A binding-matched engager unable to recruit T cells fails to reproduce these benefits, distinguishing clearance from target-receptor blockade.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

  83. What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?

    Hypothesis 1 · model answered yes

    The selected article-correspondence score was not reached. The future experimental outcome is unknown.

    Read the full original hypothesis in English

    Ageing endothelial cells increase CD38-dependent degradation of extracellular NAD+ precursors, limiting NAD+ replenishment in surrounding tissues. The resulting loss of sirtuin activity drives systemic senescence and shortens lifespan. Mechanism: Increased endothelial CD38 activity reduces extracellular nicotinamide mononucleotide availability, lowering parenchymal NAD+ and compromising SIRT1-dependent DNA repair and SIRT3-dependent mitochondrial protection. Prediction: Endothelial-specific CD38 deletion in aged mice would restore precursor availability and tissue NAD+, reduce senescence across organs, and extend survival despite persistent capillary rarefaction; disrupting NAD+ salvage in recipient tissues would abolish this protection.

    Read the research question, article result and judges’ assessments

    Yes votes from Claude Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon, Grok 4.5.

Models and coin on identical hypotheses

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
Claude Sonnet 5.528.6%14 / 49Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +13.7 percentage points88.8%174 / 196Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points38.9%14 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points83.3%174 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points24549143519617422
GPT-6 Astra31.1%23 / 74Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +16.2 percentage points92.4%158 / 171Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points75.6%158 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points24574235117115813
Gemini 4 Argon33.9%21 / 62Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +19 percentage points91.8%168 / 183Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points80.4%168 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +26.8 percentage points24562214118316815
Grok 4.526.9%25 / 93Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points92.8%141 / 152Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +7.3 percentage points69.4%25 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +22.2 percentage points67.5%141 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points24593256815214111
Coin14.9%17 / 11485.5%112 / 13147.2%17 / 3653.6%112 / 209245114179713111219

All 32 combinations and vote thresholds

These configurations are compared on the same dataset. A best observed score is exploratory; it requires a new independent dataset for validation.

Model or selection rule▲Positive predictive value▲Negative predictive value▲Sensitivity▲Specificity▲Usable hypotheses▲Yes forecasts▲Correct yes forecasts▲Incorrect yes forecasts▲No forecasts▲Correct no forecasts▲Incorrect no forecasts▲
28.6%14 / 49Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +13.7 percentage points88.8%174 / 196Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points38.9%14 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points83.3%174 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +29.7 percentage points24549143519617422
31.1%23 / 74Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +16.2 percentage points92.4%158 / 171Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points75.6%158 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +22 percentage points24574235117115813
25.6%23 / 90Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +10.6 percentage points91.6%142 / 155Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.1 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points67.9%142 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +14.4 percentage points24590236715514213
42.4%14 / 33Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +27.5 percentage points89.6%190 / 212Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +4.1 percentage points38.9%14 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -8.3 percentage points90.9%190 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +37.3 percentage points24533141921219022
33.9%21 / 62Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +19 percentage points91.8%168 / 183Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.3 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points80.4%168 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +26.8 percentage points24562214118316815
27.5%22 / 80Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12.6 percentage points91.5%151 / 165Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6 percentage points61.1%22 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points72.2%151 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +18.7 percentage points24580225816515114
41.9%13 / 31Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +27 percentage points89.3%191 / 214Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.8 percentage points36.1%13 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -11.1 percentage points91.4%191 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +37.8 percentage points24531131821419123
27.1%23 / 85Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12.1 percentage points91.9%147 / 160Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.4 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points70.3%147 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points24585236216014713
41.2%21 / 51Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +26.3 percentage points92.3%179 / 194Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.8 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points85.6%179 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +32.1 percentage points24551213019417915
23.7%23 / 97Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +8.8 percentage points91.2%135 / 148Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points64.6%135 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +11 percentage points24597237414813513
36.1%22 / 61Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +21.2 percentage points92.4%170 / 184Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points61.1%22 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points81.3%170 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points24561223918417014
48.1%13 / 27Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +33.2 percentage points89.4%195 / 218Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +4 percentage points36.1%13 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -11.1 percentage points93.3%195 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +39.7 percentage points24527131421819523
26.9%25 / 93Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12 percentage points92.8%141 / 152Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +7.3 percentage points69.4%25 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +22.2 percentage points67.5%141 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points24593256815214111
25.2%27 / 107Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +10.3 percentage points93.5%129 / 138Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8 percentage points75%27 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points61.7%129 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +8.1 percentage points24510727801381299
34.3%12 / 35Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +19.4 percentage points88.6%186 / 210Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.1 percentage points33.3%12 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -13.9 percentage points89%186 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +35.4 percentage points24535122321018624
24.6%28 / 114Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +9.6 percentage points93.9%123 / 131Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points58.9%123 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +5.3 percentage points24511428861311238
37.7%20 / 53Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +22.8 percentage points91.7%176 / 192Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.2 percentage points55.6%20 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +8.3 percentage points84.2%176 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points24553203319217616
23.3%28 / 120Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points93.6%117 / 125Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8.1 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points56%117 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points24512028921251178
31%22 / 71Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +16.1 percentage points92%160 / 174Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.5 percentage points61.1%22 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +13.9 percentage points76.6%160 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +23 percentage points24571224917416014
48%12 / 25Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +33.1 percentage points89.1%196 / 220Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.6 percentage points33.3%12 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -13.9 percentage points93.8%196 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points24525121322019624
24.8%28 / 113Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +9.9 percentage points93.9%124 / 132Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points59.3%124 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +5.7 percentage points24511328851321248
42.9%18 / 42Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +27.9 percentage points91.1%185 / 203Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +5.6 percentage points50%18 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +2.8 percentage points88.5%185 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +34.9 percentage points24542182420318518
23.3%28 / 120Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +8.4 percentage points93.6%117 / 125Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8.1 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points56%117 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +2.4 percentage points24512028921251178
35%21 / 60Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +20.1 percentage points91.9%170 / 185Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.4 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points81.3%170 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +27.8 percentage points24560213918517015
45.8%11 / 24Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +30.9 percentage points88.7%196 / 221Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.2 percentage points30.6%11 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -16.7 percentage points93.8%196 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +40.2 percentage points24524111322119625
23.1%28 / 121Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +8.2 percentage points93.5%116 / 124Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +8.1 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points55.5%116 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +1.9 percentage points24512128931241168
32.9%23 / 70Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +17.9 percentage points92.6%162 / 175Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +7.1 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points77.5%162 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +23.9 percentage points24570234717516213
47.4%18 / 38Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +32.5 percentage points91.3%189 / 207Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +5.8 percentage points50%18 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +2.8 percentage points90.4%189 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +36.8 percentage points24538182020718918
22.4%28 / 125Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +7.5 percentage points93.3%112 / 120Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +7.8 percentage points77.8%28 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +30.6 percentage points53.6%112 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points24512528971201128
27.7%23 / 83Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +12.8 percentage points92%149 / 162Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.5 percentage points63.9%23 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +16.7 percentage points71.3%149 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +17.7 percentage points24583236016214913
43.8%21 / 48Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +28.8 percentage points92.4%182 / 197Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +6.9 percentage points58.3%21 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: +11.1 percentage points87.1%182 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +33.5 percentage points24548212719718215
50%11 / 22Coin: 14.9% (17 / 114)Difference from the coin: +35.1 percentage points88.8%198 / 223Coin: 85.5% (112 / 131)Difference from the coin: +3.3 percentage points30.6%11 / 36Coin: 47.2% (17 / 36)Difference from the coin: -16.7 percentage points94.7%198 / 209Coin: 53.6% (112 / 209)Difference from the coin: +41.1 percentage points24522111122319825
Limits of this additional benchmark

This run tests a short-question scheme on the same previously examined hypotheses. Its results describe retrospective article correspondence. Future experimental success and the isolated effect of a particular scientific criterion require separate checks on new data. This experiment does not train model parameters.

Complete first request exactly as sent

The text below contains the complete first benchmark request. The downloadable input retains every background and hypothesis without shortening. Reference findings, article identities and judge scores are absent from model messages. Standard provider settings disable tools and require a final answer in the requested format; these settings are unchanged from the previous run.

Return a JSON object.

For each hypothesis below, will it be confirmed experimentally?

BACKGROUND
Intestinal stem-cell function and regenerative capacity decline with age, compromising maintenance and repair of the intestinal epithelium. Both cell-intrinsic changes and signals from the aged systemic environment may contribute to this decline. Chronic inflammation and altered cellular metabolism are common features of ageing, but how circulating conditions are translated into functional defects in intestinal regeneration was unresolved. It was also unclear whether manipulating systemic or metabolic processes could preserve or restore aged stem-cell activity.

RESEARCH QUESTION
How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?

HYPOTHESES
[H1] Elevated circulating kynurenine in aged animals persistently activates aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling in intestinal stem cells, reducing their capacity to use fatty acids for regeneration. Mechanism: Sustained kynurenine–aryl hydrocarbon receptor signaling represses the PPAR-regulated fatty-acid oxidation program, limiting mitochondrial substrate flexibility during regenerative proliferation. Prediction: Kynurenine at concentrations measured in aged plasma reproduces reduced fatty-acid oxidation and regenerative output; stem-cell aryl hydrocarbon receptor deletion prevents both effects despite equivalent kynurenine exposure.

[H2] An age-associated increase in circulating saturated fatty acids impairs intestinal stem cells through ceramide accumulation rather than through inflammatory cytokines alone. Mechanism: Excess saturated fatty acids drive de novo ceramide synthesis in stem cells, disrupting mitochondrial membrane function and increasing reactive oxygen species sufficiently to impair self-renewal. Prediction: The lipid fraction of aged serum reproduces the metabolic and regenerative defects, whereas lipid depletion removes them; inhibiting stem-cell ceramide synthesis rescues function even when aged-serum cytokines remain present.

[H3] The aged systemic environment impairs intestinal stem-cell metabolism primarily by disrupting metabolic support from Paneth cells. Stem-cell defects therefore arise secondarily from an altered local niche. Mechanism: Circulating inflammatory factors suppress Paneth-cell glycolysis and lactate export, reducing the supply of lactate available for oxidation by neighboring intestinal stem cells. Prediction: Paneth cells exposed to aged serum impair otherwise untreated young stem cells after serum washout, with reduced transfer of isotope-labeled lactate into stem-cell mitochondrial metabolites; restoring Paneth-cell lactate export rescues regeneration.

[H4] Elevated circulating TNF in aged animals impairs intestinal regeneration by suppressing mitochondrial pyruvate oxidation in intestinal stem cells. This metabolic restriction directly limits their expansion after injury. Mechanism: TNF activates stem-cell TNFR1–NF-κB signaling, increasing pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase activity and inhibitory phosphorylation of pyruvate dehydrogenase, thereby reducing glucose-derived carbon entry into the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Prediction: Aged serum reduces glucose-derived mitochondrial carbon flux and organoid formation; stem-cell-specific TNFR1 deletion or blockade of pyruvate dehydrogenase inhibition restores both despite continued exposure to aged serum.

[H5] Chronic exposure to circulating interferons in old age depletes intestinal stem-cell NAD+ and thereby compromises mitochondrial function and regeneration. Mechanism: Sustained interferon signaling induces oxidative DNA damage and PARP-dependent NAD+ consumption, reducing NAD+-dependent mitochondrial enzyme activity and respiratory capacity. Prediction: Aged serum increases stem-cell PARylation before NAD+ and respiration decline; interferon-receptor deletion or selective suppression of PARP activity prevents these changes and restores regeneration without correcting circulating lipid or nutrient levels.

Return a JSON object with a "forecasts" array. For each hypothesis include its "id" and a boolean "confirmed".
Protocol, forecasts and data
Earlier hidden-article forecast scheme and its results

Forecast comparison · October 22, 2026 · 6 models

Benchmark of hypothesis recommendations across models

Each model received the same 250 anonymous GPT-6 Astra hypotheses, five for each of 50 research questions. The article’s result was hidden. By default, we take the five hypotheses assigned the highest probabilities of article correspondence by each model and count how many received the required score from at least two of three judges. No laboratory experiments were performed for this benchmark.

Change comparison conditionsForce selection of 5 hypotheses by model probability

The article’s causal relationship · scores 4 or 5

We select at most one hypothesis per research question. Selection is forced, even when a model has low confidence or declined to recommend a hypothesis.

The four metrics below evaluate candidate inclusion and exclusion. Selecting a hypothesis is the positive decision; leaving it out is the negative decision. An abstention leaves every hypothesis from that question out. This evaluates the selection rule and does not turn unselected candidates into explicit model forecasts. The coin uses its original decisions on the same questions and candidates.

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 1 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 4

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 4 below it. Excluded: 245, with 242 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.20%1 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 242 are below the reference threshold.98.8%242 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 242 of these.98.4%242 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.1 percentage points

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 1 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 5

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 4 below it. Excluded: 245, with 242 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.20%1 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 242 are below the reference threshold.98.8%242 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 242 of these.98.4%242 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.1 percentage points

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 1 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 4

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 4 below it. Excluded: 245, with 242 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.20%1 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 242 are below the reference threshold.98.8%242 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 242 of these.98.4%242 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.1 percentage points

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 1 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 0

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 4 below it. Excluded: 245, with 242 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.20%1 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 242 are below the reference threshold.98.8%242 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 242 of these.98.4%242 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.1 percentage points

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 2 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 0

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 2 reaching the reference threshold and 3 below it. Excluded: 245, with 243 below the threshold and 2 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 2 meet the reference criterion.40%2 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +38.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 243 are below the reference threshold.99.2%243 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.7 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 2 of these.50%2 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 243 of these.98.8%243 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.5 percentage points

Selected 5 hypotheses by model probability; 1 met the score criterion

Testing limit: 5. Technically invalid model outputs: 0

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 4 below it. Excluded: 245, with 242 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.20%1 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 242 are below the reference threshold.98.8%242 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 242 of these.98.4%242 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.1 percentage points

Reached the selected reference threshold: 4 of 250 hypotheses.

All coin results use the original recorded tosses. Each comparison retains only the same hypotheses used for the corresponding model or rule; no toss is redrawn.

All models used the same instruction. It asks for the probability of a score of 4 or 5. The main-mechanism outcome is a separate diagnostic. A model’s stated probability is not a verified success rate. Changing the score criterion keeps the selected hypotheses fixed and changes only how many meet that criterion.

Procedure and limits of forced selection

This method must select up to 5 hypotheses with the highest model-reported probabilities, at most one per research question. It can select a hypothesis even when the model assigned a low probability or declined to recommend it. If the recurrence requirement leaves fewer eligible questions, all eligible ones are selected.

The equal-testing-cost comparison was added after the Haiku-based method issued no recommendations under the 50% requirement. All models are shown at the same four testing limits. This is additional internal exploration; a high fraction among a few selected hypotheses does not establish future reliability.

Observed predictive value on these questions

These questions were already used to develop the instruction. The observed fractions and nominal 95% intervals describe this internal retrospective comparison. Model probabilities, small samples and the highest fraction do not establish reliability on new questions or future experimental success.

Date recheck for the original models

The original protocol used January 2026 for Grok 4.5, March for Gemini 4 Argon and April 30 for GPT-6 Astra. All three dates were confirmed in primary sources; their earlier exclusion was overly restrictive. First article publications in the current 50-question set range from August 1 to October 9, 2026. Saved expanded preprint screening covers dates through July 1. Ten earlier tasks with early preprints were withdrawn and replaced.

The joint SpaceXAI and Cursor model card dated July 14, 2026, section 1.2, gives a January pretraining boundary for Grok 4.5. It also describes subsequent training, including Cursor workflow data, without a separately known final data date. The later training-data summary also covers the Grok 4.6 update and continuing refinement on new data. January is therefore used with its original pretraining scope; it does not guarantee absence of later data. Provider document on training data

In the three-question pilot, all six Grok replies promised research instead of returning the required probabilities. No valid forecast was received; no predictive proportion is assigned to Grok here.

For the original Opus generations, disabled tools were confirmed by reproducing the earlier configuration and by repeating the generation. An internet bypass was found and fixed for GPT-6 Astra on October 16; affected Omega outputs were retired and regenerated. The new predictor calls have their own audited no-tools receipts. Input provenance and current forecast isolation are separate checks.

Models, dates and execution controls

The requests, hypothesis order, two validation attempts and recommendation requirements of 50%, 70% and 90% are fixed. Article findings and judge scores are withheld. Every new cross-provider answer has a no-tools receipt matched to the exact messages and the call ledger. Technical failures remain among all 50 questions. The original score panel for these Astra hypotheses comprises Opus 5.5, Grok 4.7 and Gemini 4 Argon; this is distinct from their predictor roles.

The provider’s date kind is named explicitly: training-data boundary for Claude, knowledge boundary for GPT-6 Astra and Gemini 4 Argon, and pretraining boundary for Grok 4.5. Month-level dates use the last day of the month. Articles first appeared from August to October 2026. Saved preprint checks through July 1 cover all accepted boundaries and contain no matched early version. Search completeness and unknown subsequent training data remain limitations.

GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon and Grok 4.5 qualify under the original protocol’s declared-date criterion, with the scope of every date stated explicitly. All three dates have primary-source support. They do not establish a separate endpoint for all training stages.

  • Claude Haiku 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 46. Calls including retries: 60
  • Claude Opus 4.8: Declared training-data boundary: January 31, 2026. Valid question outputs: 45. Calls including retries: 64
  • Claude Opus 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 46. Calls including retries: 64
  • Claude Sonnet 5.5: Declared training-data boundary: June 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 52
  • Gemini 4 Argon: Declared knowledge boundary: March 31, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 51
  • GPT-6 Astra: Declared knowledge boundary: April 30, 2026. Valid question outputs: 50. Calls including retries: 50

Forecast method development · October 21, 2026

Developing a hypothesis recommendation method with Sonnet

This method-development stage uses Sonnet’s predictions. For each of 50 research questions, Sonnet saw five hypotheses by GPT-6 Astra, 250 in total, but not the article’s result. We compare its recommendations with the later judges’ scores. This benchmark contains no laboratory tests of our own.

The article’s causal relationship · scores 4 or 5

One hypothesis per research question. At least two of three judges must give the recommended hypothesis the required score.

Sonnet’s probability is at least 50%

Of 10 recommended hypotheses, 2 received scores 4 or 5 from a majority of judges. That is 20%.

Met the score criterion: 2Did not meet it: 8

The descriptive 95% interval is 2.5% to 55.6%. With few recommendations it remains wide.

Recommendations were issued for 10 of 50 questions. For 40 questions the system abstained.

Testing every recommendation would require testing 10 hypotheses.

Missed questions with a qualifying hypothesis among the five: 2 of 4.

In the full source pool, 4 of 250 hypotheses meet this score criterion. Choosing the same number of questions at random and testing one random hypothesis per question would yield an expected qualifying proportion of 1.6%. This is a mathematical expectation, not an observed result.

A probability stated by the model is its own estimate. The observed proportion above is measured against judges’ scores; it is not a measured probability of future laboratory success.

The recommendations improved on this dataset

Requiring similar hypotheses from all four other models reduced the recommendations from ten to five while retaining both high-scoring hypotheses. This is a development result on the same questions. Reliability on new research questions remains untested.

The new Sonnet calls had tools verifiably disabled. Complete tool restrictions for historical Claude generation could not be confirmed; those logs are no longer available. Recurrence comparisons therefore remain exploratory. Every predictive input must be regenerated under verified restrictions for the next independent test.

Compare ways of making a recommendation

Choose a row to inspect its recommendations. Every method uses the same 50 questions and five hypotheses per question. Bar length shows the observed proportion of recommendations meeting the selected score criterion.

The four metrics below evaluate candidate inclusion and exclusion. Selecting a hypothesis is the positive decision; leaving it out is the negative decision. An abstention leaves every hypothesis from that question out. This evaluates the selection rule and does not turn unselected candidates into explicit model forecasts. The coin uses its original decisions on the same questions and candidates.

Positive predictive value is the proportion of article matches among hypotheses forecast yes. Sensitivity is the proportion found among all article matches in the input cohort. These have different denominators. Negative predictive value describes the no forecasts; specificity describes rejection of below-threshold hypotheses. Each card spells out the actual numerator and denominator.

Every model and voting rule is compared with the original saved coin decisions on exactly the same hypotheses. Differences are shown separately for each metric in percentage points. A fair coin has expected sensitivity and specificity of 50%; predictive values depend on reference prevalence. The recorded finite sample can differ from those expectations.

Recommend its preferred hypothesis when its probability reaches 50%.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 10, with 2 reaching the reference threshold and 8 below it. Excluded: 240, with 238 below the threshold and 2 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 10 hypotheses. Of these, 2 meet the reference criterion.20%2 / 10Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +18.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 240 hypotheses. Of these, 238 are below the reference threshold.99.2%238 / 240Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.7 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 2 of these.50%2 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 238 of these.96.7%238 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +43.5 percentage points

Also require a similar hypothesis from each of the four other generators.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 5, with 2 reaching the reference threshold and 3 below it. Excluded: 245, with 243 below the threshold and 2 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 5 hypotheses. Of these, 2 meet the reference criterion.40%2 / 5Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +38.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 245 hypotheses. Of these, 243 are below the reference threshold.99.2%243 / 245Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.7 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 2 of these.50%2 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: +0 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 243 of these.98.8%243 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.5 percentage points

Same instruction, a higher probability requirement.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 3, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 2 below it. Excluded: 247, with 244 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 3 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.33.3%1 / 3Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +31.6 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 247 hypotheses. Of these, 244 are below the reference threshold.98.8%244 / 247Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 244 of these.99.2%244 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +45.9 percentage points

Same recurrence requirement, higher probability from Sonnet.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 2, with 1 reaching the reference threshold and 1 below it. Excluded: 248, with 245 below the threshold and 3 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 2 hypotheses. Of these, 1 meet the reference criterion.50%1 / 2Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin: +48.3 percentage points
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 248 hypotheses. Of these, 245 are below the reference threshold.98.8%245 / 248Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: +0.3 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 1 of these.25%1 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -25 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 245 of these.99.6%245 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +46.3 percentage points

The model must assign at least 90% before a recommendation is issued.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 0, with 0 reaching the reference threshold and 0 below it. Excluded: 250, with 246 below the threshold and 4 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 0 hypotheses. Of these, 0 meet the reference criterion.No estimate0 / 0Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin is undefined for this denominator.
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 250 hypotheses. Of these, 246 are below the reference threshold.98.4%246 / 250Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: -0.1 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 0 of these.0%0 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 246 of these.100%246 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +46.7 percentage points

Fit on 49 questions, recommend on the remaining question, then repeat for every question.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 0, with 0 reaching the reference threshold and 0 below it. Excluded: 250, with 246 below the threshold and 4 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 0 hypotheses. Of these, 0 meet the reference criterion.No estimate0 / 0Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin is undefined for this denominator.
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 250 hypotheses. Of these, 246 are below the reference threshold.98.4%246 / 250Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: -0.1 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 0 of these.0%0 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 246 of these.100%246 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +46.7 percentage points

The training questions must show at least 90% before the condition is used.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 0, with 0 reaching the reference threshold and 0 below it. Excluded: 250, with 246 below the threshold and 4 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 0 hypotheses. Of these, 0 meet the reference criterion.No estimate0 / 0Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin is undefined for this denominator.
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 250 hypotheses. Of these, 246 are below the reference threshold.98.4%246 / 250Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: -0.1 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 0 of these.0%0 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 246 of these.100%246 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +46.7 percentage points

A lower confidence bound must exceed 90%, with adjustment for the searched conditions.

Hypotheses evaluated: 250. Selected: 0, with 0 reaching the reference threshold and 0 below it. Excluded: 250, with 246 below the threshold and 4 reaching it.

Positive predictive valueThe selection contains 0 hypotheses. Of these, 0 meet the reference criterion.No estimate0 / 0Coin: 1.7% (2 / 117)Difference from the coin is undefined for this denominator.
Negative predictive valueThe selection excludes 250 hypotheses. Of these, 246 are below the reference threshold.98.4%246 / 250Coin: 98.5% (131 / 133)Difference from the coin: -0.1 percentage points
SensitivityThe input cohort contains 4 hypotheses meeting the reference criterion. The selection includes 0 of these.0%0 / 4Coin: 50% (2 / 4)Difference from the coin: -50 percentage points
SpecificityThe input cohort contains 246 hypotheses below the reference threshold. The selection excludes 246 of these.100%246 / 246Coin: 53.3% (131 / 246)Difference from the coin: +46.7 percentage points

Every question and its recommendation

Each square is one of the 50 research questions. Its colour shows what happened to the recommendation. An outline means no recommendation. Select a square to inspect that question.

The recommendation met the score criterionThe recommendation did not meet the criterionNo recommendation

Inspect all 10 recommendations
  1. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  2. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  3. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  4. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  5. The recommendation met the score criterion
  6. The recommendation met the score criterion
  7. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  8. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  9. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
  10. The recommendation did not meet the criterion
Data, isolation and limitations of this check

All numerical forecasts come from the corrected reference-match-v2 run on GPT-6 Astra’s five hypotheses per question in its single-request mode. The instruction had already been developed using these questions. Conditions involving recurrence were studied after the forecasts. They require new questions for independent validation.

Recurrence uses hypotheses generated by Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5, Claude Fable 5.1 and Gemini 4 Argon High across the three benchmark generation methods. A similar hypothesis means direct cosine similarity of at least 0.75 between normalized statement embeddings. Only the new numerical forecasts and recurrence are predictive inputs; older Claude binary forecasts and judges’ plausibility scores are excluded.

Tools were disabled in all 52 model requests, including retries. The restriction was verified in the saved records of every request. Retries concern answer validation and are not extra research questions.

Declared training cutoff: June 30, 2026. The articles’ earliest public dates range from August 1, 2026 to October 9, 2026. Saved searches found no early preprints. Search completeness and undisclosed training contamination remain limitations.

Low correspondence to one article does not establish biological falsity. Actual experimental usefulness needs follow-up of every recommendation, including negative and inconclusive results.

The next test of reliability

A candidate has now been frozen for the next check: if Sonnet assigns any hypothesis at least 30% and at least 2 other generators proposed a similar hypothesis, recommend testing the full set of five. Choose the anchor by probability, then recurrence, with a fixed anonymous-ID tie-break. The target is to find the main mechanism, score 3 or higher. This remains a research candidate awaiting new data.

Freeze a recommendation method, gather new questions and record its recommendations before exposing the article results. Then measure both the proportion that met the criterion and the number of tests required. Practical use needs a separate record of subsequent experiments. A single successful recommendation is a case to investigate, not a basis for promising 100% reliability.

The main view leaves out the judge from the same company as the model being scored.

Single requestthe question asked onceMultistep pipelinefive stages, additional requests and selectionOmega methodthe stages of Omega Point
How the study was done

Benchmark of hypothesis generation

In this benchmark the model has to propose scientific hypotheses itself. The set holds 50 tasks; each task is built from one recent peer-reviewed article: the model receives the background and the question, while the article’s conclusion, which we call the reference finding, is hidden from it. For every task the model proposes five hypotheses and does so in three ways of asking. Four judge models compare every hypothesis with the reference finding and give a correspondence score from 0 to 5 by closeness to it: 5 means the same causal finding with every key point, 3 the right core mechanism, 0 no relation. The measure is agreement with an already published finding; the benchmark runs no laboratory experiments of its own. The dashed line marks GPT-6 Astra asked in a single request.

Every task with its reference finding and source, and worked examples of scored hypotheses

Share of hypotheses that correspond to the reference finding

Of the five hypotheses the model proposed for a task we count the share whose correspondence score is at or above the threshold; that share is averaged over judges and over all tasks. This is the chance that one hypothesis of the model, taken at random, corresponds to the reference finding. The bar has three layers for three thresholds. Dark layer: score 4 or 5, the hypothesis reproduces the causal finding of the reference. Middle layer: score 3 or more, the hypothesis names the right core mechanism or target. The lightest layer adds hypotheses scored below 3 that name a suitable alternative mechanism: it differs from the published one, could act together with it, and the judge rated it plausible, 4 or 5 out of 5. The thin line is the 95% interval of the middle layer from resampling the tasks.

Score 4 or 5, the causal finding reproducedScore 3 or more, the right mechanism namedScore 3 or more, or a score below 3 with a suitable alternative mechanism

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 14.8%

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 14.8%
Grok 4.5Multistep pipeline
20.0%
Gemini 4 ArgonMultistep pipeline
18.4%
Claude Opus 5.5Single request
17.7%
Grok 4.5Single request
17.6%
GPT-6 AstraMultistep pipeline
16.0%
Gemini 4 ArgonSingle request
14.9%
GPT-6 AstraSingle requestreference
14.8%
Claude Opus 5.5Multistep pipeline
13.2%
Gemini 4 ArgonOmega method
10.3%
Claude Opus 5.5Omega method
4.5%
Grok 4.5Omega method
4.1%
GPT-6 AstraOmega method
4.0%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Share of tasks in which at least one of the five hypotheses corresponds to the reference finding

A task counts when at least one of the five hypotheses proposed for it scored at or above the threshold with a judge; the share of such tasks is averaged over judges. The layers and thresholds are the same as in the chart above. This measure says whether a suitable hypothesis is among the five, using the scores already given. Whether the model can point to it among the five in advance is tested by the second benchmark below.

Score 4 or 5, the causal finding reproducedScore 3 or more, the right mechanism namedScore 3 or more, or a score below 3 with a suitable alternative mechanism

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 53%

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 53%
Claude Opus 5.5Single request
61%
Gemini 4 ArgonMultistep pipeline
59%
Grok 4.5Single request
59%
Gemini 4 ArgonSingle request
57%
GPT-6 AstraSingle requestreference
53%
Grok 4.5Multistep pipeline
47%
GPT-6 AstraMultistep pipeline
45%
Claude Opus 5.5Multistep pipeline
35%
Gemini 4 ArgonOmega method
29%
Claude Opus 5.5Omega method
20%
Grok 4.5Omega method
17%
GPT-6 AstraOmega method
13%
0%25%50%75%100%
Model▲Way of asking▲Score 3 or more, share of hypotheses▼Score 4 or 5, share of hypotheses▲Score 3 or more, or a suitable alternative mechanism, share of hypotheses▲Score 3 or more for at least one of the five hypotheses, share of tasks▲
Grok 4.5Multistep pipeline20.0%12.8% to 27.7%4.4%64.1%47%
Gemini 4 ArgonMultistep pipeline18.4%13.5% to 23.6%4.5%44.8%59%
Claude Opus 5.5Single request17.7%13.2% to 22.5%2.5%67.3%61%
Grok 4.5Single request17.6%12.7% to 23.1%3.7%63.6%59%
GPT-6 AstraMultistep pipeline16.0%10.7% to 21.7%2.4%75.7%45%
Gemini 4 ArgonSingle request14.9%11.2% to 19.1%4.4%49.6%57%
GPT-6 AstraSingle request14.8%10.7% to 19.3%2.4%72.4%53%
Claude Opus 5.5Multistep pipeline13.2%7.7% to 19.3%1.7%57.9%35%
Gemini 4 ArgonOmega method10.3%6.4% to 14.5%2.4%12.1%29%
Claude Opus 5.5Omega method4.5%2.4% to 6.8%0.0%29.1%20%
Grok 4.5Omega method4.1%2.1% to 6.5%0.3%9.7%17%
GPT-6 AstraOmega method4.0%1.6% to 6.9%0.9%26.1%13%

Benchmark of forecasts against a hidden article finding

This separate benchmark tests forecasts about existing hypotheses. Each predictor received the background, question and five hypotheses, with the reference finding hidden. The original instruction asked whether experiments would establish each hypothesis. We measure correspondence to the article finding instead. A hypothesis satisfies the criterion selected below when at least two of three model judges from other companies judge that it does. No new laboratory experiments were run. A recorded coin toss per hypothesis supplies the random control.

These historical Claude forecasts and generations were not verified end to end for tool restrictions. The corrected, verified Sonnet run is shown in the new method-development section above. Historical comparisons are exploratory.

Score 4 or 5, the causal finding reproduced

Article correspondence among positive forecasts

Take the hypotheses given a positive forecast and count the share accepted by the judges under the selected criterion. This is positive predictive value (PPV) for that criterion. The saturated bar is the model; the light bar is the coin on the same hypotheses. A visual difference alone does not establish statistical significance.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
6.2%coin 2.0%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
5.0%coin 0.8%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
10.4%coin 3.4%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
3.4%coin 0.8%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
6.4%coin 2.7%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
8.6%coin 2.0%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
9.0%coin 2.4%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
6.0%coin 1.7%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%

Negative predictive value of the model’s forecast (NPV)

Take the hypotheses given a negative forecast and count the share rejected under the selected judging criterion. This is negative predictive value for that criterion. With rare reference matches it can be high even for an unhelpful predictor. Read it together with positive predictive value. Rejection under this criterion does not establish biological falsity.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
99.2%coin 98.2%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 98.7%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
98.7%coin 97.6%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
99.2%coin 98.1%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
99.0%coin 98.2%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
98.8%coin 98.2%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
98.8%coin 98.2%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
99.3%coin 98.2%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

The model’s forecast on its own hypotheses and other models’ forecasts on the same hypotheses

The hypotheses are grouped by the model that proposed them. In each group the first row shows how the model predicts the confirmation of its own hypotheses, and the following rows show how other models predict the same hypotheses. The measure is the same, the positive predictive value: of the hypotheses with a positive forecast, the share that were confirmed. The rows differ in the number of hypotheses; this comparison does not establish a causal effect of authorship.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
Hypotheses of Claude Opus 5.5
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
5.0%coin 0.8%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
7.6%coin 0.8%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
6.1%coin 0.8%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
4.2%coin 0.8%
Mean external forecastabout other models’ hypotheses
5.4%coin 0.8%
Hypotheses of Gemini 4 Argon
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
10.4%coin 3.4%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
12.2%coin 3.4%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
11.6%coin 3.4%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
10.5%coin 3.4%
Mean external forecastabout other models’ hypotheses
11.2%coin 3.4%
Hypotheses of GPT-6 Astra
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
3.4%coin 0.8%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
3.3%coin 0.8%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
4.8%coin 0.8%
Mean external forecastabout other models’ hypotheses
4.2%coin 0.8%
Hypotheses of Grok 4.5
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
6.4%coin 2.7%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
13.9%coin 2.7%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
9.2%coin 2.7%
Mean external forecastabout other models’ hypotheses
11.2%coin 2.7%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%

Sensitivity and specificity of the model’s forecast

Sensitivity counts positive forecasts among hypotheses accepted under the selected criterion. Specificity counts negative forecasts among hypotheses rejected under it. Both refer to judging outcomes, not future biological truth. The coin expectation for each is 50%. The models gave positive forecasts to 20% of their own hypotheses.

Sensitivity of the model’s forecast

The saturated bar shows the model, the light bar shows the coin on the same hypotheses. The thin line is the 95% interval from resampling the tasks.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
66.7%coin 50.9%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 37.5%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
63.6%coin 59.1%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
50.0%coin 30.0%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
64.7%coin 58.8%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
42.1%coin 50.9%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
51.1%coin 55.3%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
67.5%coin 47.5%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Specificity of the model’s forecast

The notation is the same. When the interval is computed, the hypotheses of one task stay together.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
80.5%coin 50.7%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
79.6%coin 52.6%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
83.5%coin 49.9%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
81.1%coin 49.7%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
77.9%coin 50.8%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
91.3%coin 50.7%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
89.0%coin 51.1%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
80.8%coin 50.7%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Sensitivity and specificity of the model’s forecast on one chart

The specificity of the forecast runs horizontally, the sensitivity vertically. For a random forecast the expected sum of the two is 100%, and such points lie on the line. An observed point can fall on either side of the line; its position alone does not establish statistical significance. The light point shows the recorded coin tosses on the same hypotheses. Each line joins a model’s forecast to its coin; pointing at a point or a line shows the counts.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same hypothesesLine joining the model’s forecast to the coin on the same hypothesesabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypothesesRandom forecast
Sensitivity
Random forecast
Specificity

Forecast for all five hypotheses of one task

Each unit here is a set of five hypotheses for one question. A set succeeds under the selected judging criterion if at least one member satisfies it. Its forecast is positive if any member received a positive forecast; that may be a different member. This measures whether the set contains a matching hypothesis, while testing the set requires all five. Models gave a positive forecast to 74% of the sets.

Positive predictive value of the model’s forecast by groups (PPV)

The saturated bar shows the model, the light bar shows the coin on the same groups.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same groupsabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
9.9%coin 6.7%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
5.7%coin 1.6%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
15.7%coin 10.0%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
7.4%coin 2.9%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
11.3%coin 11.9%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
12.8%coin 6.7%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
13.7%coin 8.0%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
9.7%coin 5.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%

Negative predictive value of the model’s forecast by groups (NPV)

A set fails the selected judging criterion if none of its five hypotheses satisfies it. Under the alternative-mechanism option there are few such sets, so estimates are less precise. This does not establish that all five are biologically false.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same groupsabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
98.1%coin 91.2%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 93.1%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
97.9%coin 87.1%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
96.4%coin 91.4%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 92.3%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
95.9%coin 91.2%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
96.8%coin 91.1%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
99.1%coin 90.8%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Sensitivity of the model’s forecast by groups

The models give a positive forecast to most groups, so the high group sensitivity follows largely from the frequency of positive forecasts itself; read it together with the specificity below. The thin line is the 95% interval from resampling the tasks.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same groupsabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
93.6%coin 38.3%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 14.3%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
94.1%coin 47.1%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
77.8%coin 22.2%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
100.0%coin 50.0%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
70.2%coin 38.3%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
81.6%coin 42.1%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
97.0%coin 33.3%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Specificity of the model’s forecast by groups

The same marks.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same groupsabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypotheses
The models togethereach about its own hypotheses
27.6%coin 54.4%
Claude Opus 5.5about its own hypotheses
18.4%coin 57.4%
Gemini 4 Argonabout its own hypotheses
35.3%coin 45.9%
GPT-6 Astraabout its own hypotheses
37.6%coin 52.5%
Grok 4.5about its own hypotheses
19.1%coin 61.8%
Claude Sonnet 5.5about other models’ hypotheses
59.2%coin 54.4%
GPT-6 Astraabout other models’ hypotheses
52.4%coin 55.1%
Grok 4.5about other models’ hypotheses
28.0%coin 52.0%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Sensitivity and specificity of the model’s forecast by groups on one chart

For a random forecast the expected sum of sensitivity and specificity is 100%; a single realisation can deviate. The light point shows the coin on the same groups. Each line joins a model’s forecast to its coin; pointing at a point or a line shows the counts.

The model’s forecastThe coin on the same groupsLine joining the model’s forecast to the coin on the same groupsabout its own hypothesesabout other models’ hypothesesRandom forecast
Sensitivity
Random forecast
Specificity

How these numbers were counted

  1. What counts as the confirmation of a hypothesis

    A hypothesis counts as confirmed when at least two of the three judges from other companies gave it a correspondence score against the reference finding at or above the threshold. The threshold is chosen in the list above the charts: score 4 or 5 means the hypothesis reproduces the causal finding of the reference; score 3 or more means the right core mechanism is named; the third threshold adds hypotheses scored below 3 that name a suitable alternative mechanism, that is a mechanism that differs from the published one, could act together with it and was rated plausible by the judge, so this threshold rests partly on a plausibility judgment. The first benchmark combines the scores differently: it reports the mean share per judge, without a majority decision.

  2. What the model was asked

    One request holds the background, the question and the five hypotheses proposed for the task in the first benchmark. The predictor ranks them and gives a positive or negative forecast for each. The reference finding and web access are excluded from the request. The predictor’s instruction was written after inspecting the original task set, so this is an internal validation: it is run on the same tasks the instruction was written from.

  3. Forecasts on other models’ hypotheses

    Grok 4.5 predicts the confirmation of GPT-6 Astra’s hypotheses and GPT-6 Astra that of Grok 4.5’s; both predict the hypotheses of Gemini and Claude Opus. Claude Sonnet 5.5 takes part only as a predictor and predicts the hypotheses of all four models. The row “Mean forecast of the other models” gives each outside predictor equal weight: a hypothesis counts on the yes side by the share of predictors that said yes. Predictors are compared on the same hypotheses of the same author.

  4. How the coin answers

    A script tossed a fair coin once for every hypothesis and recorded each toss with its time. Every toss is final. Heads is a positive forecast, tails a negative one. In every row the coin is counted on exactly the hypotheses the model answered about.

  5. Sensitivity and specificity of a forecast

    The sensitivity of a forecast is the share of hypotheses with a positive forecast among the confirmed hypotheses. The specificity of a forecast is the share of hypotheses with a negative forecast among the unconfirmed hypotheses. Intervals come from 10,000 resamples of the tasks; all hypotheses, ways of asking and models of one task stay together. For a fair coin the expected sensitivity and specificity are 50%; the observed values deviate by chance.

  6. Group of five hypotheses of one task

    A group counts when exactly five hypotheses were proposed for the task and each has three judge scores and a forecast. The confirmation of the group and the forecast for the group are computed separately by the rule “at least one of the five”; the predictor answered only about single hypotheses, and the group result is derived from those answers. For the mean forecast of the other models this rule is applied to each predictor first, then their answers are averaged. The coin has its own separately recorded toss for every group.

The script tossed the coin 2,997 times, once per hypothesis. In 1,477 tosses it came up heads, a positive forecast. Last toss October 19 at 03:25 AM UTC.

Forecasts and recurrence as candidate selection signals

We examine conditions based on model forecasts and similar hypotheses proposed by other generators. Each row applies one condition to the same dataset. This retrospective comparison searches for a recommendation method; it is not a validated recommendation service.

These results compare hypotheses with published findings. The success rate of new laboratory experiments needs separate validation.

For scores 4–5 and 3+, the outcome is correspondence to the article finding. The alternative-mechanism option also includes a plausibility judgment. None of these measures is an observed rate of success in new experiments.

Score 4 or 5, the causal finding reproduced

Of 2,997 hypotheses in this comparison, judges accepted 57 (1.9%) under the selected criterion. Changing the criterion changes these outcomes, while condition membership stays fixed.

Reliability of forecasts under additional conditions

For example, keep hypotheses given positive forecasts by every predictor and independently proposed by four other generators. Count how many meet this condition and how many satisfy the selected judging criterion. These counts measure the condition’s performance on past data, before any claim about new experiments.

Worked example on the current dataset

All predictors forecast confirmation. A similar hypothesis is also required from all 4 other generators.

Positive predictive value36.4%12 accepted of 33 meeting the condition
Sensitivity of the condition21.1%12 of all 57 accepted by judges

21 meet the condition but fail the judging criterion; their biological truth is unknown. 45 accepted hypotheses fail this condition.

Uncertainty in these estimates

95% confidence intervals from resampling whole tasks: positive predictive value, 12.8% to 53.8%; sensitivity, 7.0% to 35.1%.

Positive predictive value

Take hypotheses meeting the row’s condition. Count the share accepted under the selected judging criterion. This is the condition’s positive predictive value.

Sensitivity of the condition

Take all hypotheses accepted under the selected judging criterion. Count the share meeting the row’s condition. This is its sensitivity; a high value alone does not make its positive forecasts reliable.

Choose a row to update the worked example. Both bars run from 0 to 100%.

The instruction and conditions were informed by this same dataset. Independent new tasks are required to assess recommendation reliability. Matching an article does not establish the chance of success of a new experiment.

These historical Claude forecasts and generations were not verified end to end for tool restrictions. The corrected, verified Sonnet run is shown in the new method-development section above. Historical comparisons are exploratory.

Research control with one mandatory choice per question

This control always chooses one hypothesis per research question from about 60 candidates and cannot abstain. One choice is one recommendation: the percentage counts matching recommendations among all such choices. This differs from the intended system, which may abstain.

Share of recommendations accepted by judges
Choose one at randomExpected share, averaging within each task first
1.9%
Choose one by forecasts and similarity7 of 50 tasks
14.0%
Retrospective maximum using known outcomes16 of 50 tasks
32.0%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

The last row uses already known judging outcomes to show the maximum possible on these candidates. It is a retrospective ceiling and cannot issue a forecast.

Details of forecasts and independently generated similar hypotheses

Models forecast confirmation

Each predictor sees the background and the hypotheses, with the reference finding hidden. It predicts whether each hypothesis will be confirmed. “All predictors” means 3 of 3 or 4 of 4; “a majority” means at least 2 of 3 or 3 of 4.

Other models propose similar hypotheses

We count other generators that independently proposed a similar hypothesis for the same task. The five generators are GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5, Claude Opus 5.5, Gemini 4 Argon and Claude Fable 5.1. Thus each hypothesis can have similar counterparts at 0 to 4 other models. A model’s repeated proposals count once. This is separate from forecasting an existing hypothesis.

Judging outcomes by number of positive forecasts

Each row contains hypotheses with the stated number of positive forecasts. For example, 2 of 3 means two predictors gave a positive forecast and one gave a negative forecast. Three- and four-predictor cohorts are separate. The bar is the share satisfying the selected judging criterion within that row. Thin lines are 95% task-bootstrap intervals; the dashed line is the share across the chosen predictor cohort.

Share accepted by judges in each row

Accepted by judges across this chart: 1.8%

Accepted by judges across this chart: 1.8%
None of 3 predictors forecast confirmation1031 hypotheses; judges accepted 5
0.5%
1 of 3 predictors forecasts confirmation265 hypotheses; judges accepted 8
3.0%
2 of 3 predictors forecast confirmation129 hypotheses; judges accepted 4
3.1%
3 of 3 predictors forecast confirmation75 hypotheses; judges accepted 10
13.3%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%

Judging outcomes as more generators propose a similar hypothesis

All 3,247 hypotheses with complete judging are included, even without forecasts. Each row groups hypotheses by the exact number of other generators with a similar hypothesis for the same question. The bar is the share satisfying the selected judging criterion within that row. The dashed line uses all judged hypotheses; thin lines are 95% task-bootstrap intervals.

Share accepted by judges in each row

Accepted by judges across this chart: 1.8%

Accepted by judges across this chart: 1.8%
No other model has a similar hypothesis1758 hypotheses; judges accepted 8
0.5%
One other model has a similar hypothesis531 hypotheses; judges accepted 2
0.4%
Two other models have a similar hypothesis343 hypotheses; judges accepted 11
3.2%
Three other models have a similar hypothesis366 hypotheses; judges accepted 11
3.0%
All four other models have a similar hypothesis249 hypotheses; judges accepted 27
10.8%
0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%
Additional analyses and calculation methods

Groups linked by similar hypotheses

Hypotheses from the same question are joined when connected by a chain of similar pairs, so some pairs inside a group may be less similar than the threshold. The table counts generators represented in each group and the share of groups containing a hypothesis accepted under the selected judging criterion. This group-level analysis is separate from individual recommendations.

Models in the group▲Groups▲Share of groups with at least one hypothesis accepted by judges▲
11,4590.4%
2620.0%
3254.0%
45416.7%
51338.5%

Ranking hypotheses within the same task

Compare within-question pairs with one hypothesis accepted and one rejected under the selected judging criterion. Positive forecast share ranks the accepted member higher in 80 of 100 comparisons; recurrence does so in 77; the combined score does so in 83. Ties receive half credit. These describe area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), which measures ranking rather than recommendation reliability. The combined score adds positive forecast share to one quarter of the number of other generators with a similar hypothesis.

AUC of the share of positive forecasts
0.80 (0.69 to 0.89)
AUC of the number of other models with a similar hypothesis
0.77 (0.69 to 0.85)
AUC of the combined score
0.83 (0.73 to 0.89)

How this is computed

  1. A similar hypothesis

    We compare the hypothesis statements, using vectors from a local embedding model. Two hypotheses for the same task are treated as similar when their cosine similarity meets the stated threshold. This is automated text similarity; it does not establish that the hypotheses are scientifically equivalent.

  2. Recurrence across other models

    Recurrence is the number of other models holding a similar hypothesis on the same task, from zero to four. Repetition by the same model under another prompting regime is not counted.

  3. Predictors and their forecasts

    Each predictor sees the task background and five hypotheses of one generator; the reference finding and internet access are withheld. Forecasts are binary. GPT-6 Astra and Grok 4.5 hypotheses have three predictors, the other generators’ hypotheses have four: their generator plus eligible external predictors from GPT-6 Astra, Grok 4.5 and Claude Sonnet 5.5. An external predictor neither generated nor judged that hypothesis.

  4. How the rules are compared

    Conditions use forecasts and similarity; judging outcomes enter performance calculations. They share the pool with generator forecasts and recorded coin tosses. Task-bootstrap intervals keep each question’s hypotheses together. The random one-per-question control first calculates the accepted share within each question, then averages those shares equally. Prior use of this corpus to choose the instruction still prevents independent validation.

  5. Limits of what this shows

    The instruction and conditions were studied on this corpus. New independent tasks are needed before claiming recommendation reliability. Requiring recurrence excludes hypotheses with no similar counterpart, including those accepted by the judges. Automated text similarity may differ from scientific equivalence. An alternative judged plausible still needs experimental testing.

Similarity threshold 0.75. Judges scored 3,247 hypotheses; 2,997 of them carry the predictors' forecasts.

Benchmark of the creativity of research ideas

This is a third, separate benchmark, an adaptation of LiveIdeaBench: 100 keywords, for each of which the model proposes two research ideas, and the judges score them on a scale from 1 to 10. Systems are sorted by the selected measure. The dashed line marks the reference, GPT-6 Astra asked in a single request.

Mean of originality, feasibility, clarity and fluency, from 1 to 10.

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 7.54

GPT-6 Astra, Single request: 7.54
GPT-6 AstraMultistep pipeline
7.65+0.11 vs the reference
GPT-6 AstraSingle requestreference
7.54
GPT-6 AstraOmega method
7.31−0.23 vs the reference
Claude Opus 5.5Multistep pipeline
7.21−0.32 vs the reference
Gemini 4 ArgonMultistep pipeline
7.17−0.36 vs the reference
Claude Opus 5.5Single request
7.10−0.44 vs the reference
Gemini 4 ArgonSingle request
7.09−0.45 vs the reference
Claude Opus 5.5Omega method
7.08−0.46 vs the reference
Grok 4.5Single request
6.56−0.98 vs the reference
Grok 4.5Multistep pipeline
6.53−1.01 vs the reference
Gemini 4 ArgonOmega method
6.42−1.12 vs the reference
Grok 4.5Omega method
5.99−1.55 vs the reference
1.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.00
Model▲Way of asking▲Overall▼Originality▲Feasibility▲Clarity▲Fluency▲Overall compared with the reference▲
GPT-6 AstraMultistep pipeline7.656.436.848.368.97+0.11
GPT-6 AstraSingle request7.546.346.338.239.25reference
GPT-6 AstraOmega method7.316.776.247.688.55−0.23
Claude Opus 5.5Multistep pipeline7.216.555.388.048.89−0.32
Gemini 4 ArgonMultistep pipeline7.177.214.747.649.10−0.36
Claude Opus 5.5Single request7.106.464.928.029.00−0.44
Gemini 4 ArgonSingle request7.096.874.617.599.30−0.45
Claude Opus 5.5Omega method7.086.785.257.658.62−0.46
Grok 4.5Single request6.565.574.227.319.15−0.98
Grok 4.5Multistep pipeline6.535.964.477.608.09−1.01
Gemini 4 ArgonOmega method6.427.203.655.928.90−1.12
Grok 4.5Omega method5.996.194.365.198.22−1.55

How the study was done

Every model went through the same steps on the same tasks. The full protocol, step by step.

  1. What the study asks

    The first benchmark tests hypothesis generation from the background and the correspondence of the hypotheses to the reference finding. The second tests how accurately models predict the confirmation of existing hypotheses. The third, an adaptation of LiveIdeaBench, rates the originality and feasibility of research ideas. Every benchmark compares the models and the ways of asking them.

  2. Task temporal eligibility

    The original set contained 50 tasks from 10 journals; the search covered 15 journals. Rechecking every task through PubMed, OpenAlex, Crossref and Europe PMC found early preprints for 10 tasks that the title search had missed. Those tasks were retired together with their hypotheses, scores, forecasts and coin tosses and replaced by 10 tasks from the same candidate pool that passed the same check, so the current set again holds 50 tasks. Reports exclude any task with an early preprint or an incomplete check. No preprint found is qualified by sources and check date; it does not prove absence from training. Reports preserve included IDs, retired IDs and replacements.

  3. How a paper becomes a task

    From the full PubMed abstract, GPT-5.6 Sol writes four parts: the background, the research question, the reference finding and its key points. A second model, GPT-5.6 Terra, checks that the background and the question keep the reference finding hidden. The model being tested sees only the background and the question and proposes five hypotheses that answer it. The reference finding stays hidden from it and is shown only to the judges.

    Every task with its reference finding and source, and worked examples of scored hypotheses

  4. Separate test of new research ideas

    This is an adaptation of LiveIdeaBench (arXiv 2412.17596): 100 keywords, split equally between biomedical and other fields, with two ideas per keyword and a requested limit of 100 words per idea. We measure originality, feasibility, clarity and pairwise idea difference. Flexibility from the current source paper is not measured, so this is not a full replication of its protocol.

  5. Three ways of asking one model

    Each model answers every task three times, and the texts of every step are identical for all models. Web search, tools and files are switched off in every request, so that a model answers from its own knowledge. A check after the run found one exception: GPT-6 Astra working by the Omega method reached the internet while writing 17 of 50 hypothesis sets in the generation benchmark and 34 of 100 idea sets in the creativity benchmark; two of those sets cite the very paper of their task. This access is now closed; these sets were generated again without internet access. The original sets are kept separately for audit.

    • Single request. The question is asked once and the model answers once: five hypotheses for a task of the generation benchmark, two ideas for a keyword.

    • The multistep pipeline has five main stages, additional generation requests to approach Omega’s token usage, and final selection. The results of the previous stages remain available at each stage. The output contains five hypotheses for a task of the generation benchmark or two ideas for the creativity benchmark.

    • Omega method. The five stages of Omega Point in one dialogue: an analysis of how the system fails, which yields the goal pillars; a map of what is known at the frontier, including contradictions and imports from distant fields; questions about the knowledge gaps; generation of hypotheses in assigned roles, such as scouts from unrelated fields; and evolution of the three strongest. Then the model selects the best. This is a compact form of the method. The full Omega Point engine on our server works in eight steps and draws on the scientific literature; that engine was not tested here.

  6. Registered token use

    Omega runs first. The control multistep pipeline has five main stages, additional generation calls to approach Omega token use, and final selection. Actual token totals differ and are reported separately. Generation usage includes reasoning where reported by the interface; inputs and selection are separate. Single-request and cross-model costs are not matched.

  7. How a judge scores the five hypotheses in the generation benchmark

    A judge receives the background, the question, the reference finding with its key points and the five hypotheses proposed for the task, shuffled and labelled P1 to P5. It does not know which model or which way of asking produced them. Each set of five hypotheses is scored in a separate request, so a score means the same thing for every model. Each hypothesis gets a correspondence score against the reference finding by closeness to it:

    • 5: the same causal finding, with every key point.
    • 4: the central causal finding, with at most one secondary point missing or vaguer.
    • 3: the right core mechanism or target, with important points missing or contradicted.
    • 2: the same topic or class of mechanism, but a different causal claim.
    • 1: only loosely related to the reference finding.
    • 0: about a different question, or contradicting the reference finding.

    The judge also decides whether the hypothesis could be true together with the reference finding, and gives it a plausibility score from 1 to 5 as a scientific claim in its own right. A hypothesis counts as naming a suitable alternative mechanism when its correspondence score is below 3, it could be true together with the reference finding and it received 4 or 5 for plausibility. Such hypotheses are counted separately; their correspondence score stays as it is.

  8. How judges score the ideas

    The judges use the official LiveIdeaBench reviewer text. Each idea gets originality, feasibility and clarity from 1 to 10. Fluency compares the two ideas proposed for one keyword and gives 10, 7, 4 or 1 depending on how different they are. The overall score is the mean of the four. As in the official benchmark, each pair of ideas is scored by two judges: GPT-5.6 Sol and one more judge drawn by a fixed rule.

  9. Four judges from four companies

    The judges are GPT-5.6 Sol (OpenAI), Grok 4.7 (xAI), Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) and Gemini 4 Argon at medium reasoning effort (Google). The models under test include a model from each of these companies, and a judge may score the models of its own company higher. So in the view “Judges from other companies” the scores of the judge from the same company as the model being scored are left out; this is the main view for comparing models. The page also shows how closely the judges agree with each other.

  10. The coin toss as the random-choice control

    A script tossed a fair coin once for every hypothesis and recorded each toss with its time. Every toss is final. Heads is a positive forecast, tails a negative one. In every row the coin is counted on exactly the hypotheses the model answered about. A separate six-criteria promise score of the hypotheses had a pilot run only and is not part of the second benchmark’s results.

  11. Failures and refusals

    A stage that produces only an announcement, such as “I will now look into the literature”, or an unreadable list is repeated up to three times. A set without a single readable hypothesis is generated again on the next pass. When a model’s safety filter refuses a task on every attempt, the set counts as a failure and scores zero on every measure. When a judge’s safety filter refuses, that judge gives no score and the other judges’ scores count.

  12. How the numbers are computed

    For each model and way of asking we take the mean over all tasks and a 95% interval from ten thousand bootstrap resamples of the tasks. Ways of asking are compared within a model task by task, so the same task is compared with itself under two ways of asking.

  13. Limits of the study

    Reference findings were constructed from PubMed abstracts. A valid hypothesis proposing another mechanism can score poorly against the chosen reference. Generated-token counts were approximately matched, and the predictor instruction was developed on the same questions. Identified GPT outputs with internet access were withdrawn and regenerated; some multistage runs retain the earlier token target. For the original Opus generations, disabled tools were confirmed by reproducing the earlier configuration and by repeating the generation. Declared knowledge and pretraining boundaries do not establish the data composition of all subsequent training stages. Current completion is shown in the readiness table.

Progress

How many sets of hypotheses and ideas have been written and how many judge scores given. When a model’s safety filter refuses a task, the set counts as a failure scored zero. When a judge refuses, only the other judges’ scores count.

Model▲Status▲Hypothesis sets in the generation benchmark▲Idea sets in the creativity benchmark▲Scored by GPT-5.6 Sol▲Scored by Grok 4.7▲Scored by Claude Opus 5.5▲Scored by Gemini 4 Argon (medium)▲
Grok 4.5Complete150 of 150300 of 300100%1,050 verdicts100%465 verdicts100%455 verdicts, 10 refused100%420 verdicts
GPT-6 AstraComplete150 of 150300 of 300100%1,050 verdicts100%471 verdicts100%422 verdicts, 1 refused100%456 verdicts
Claude Opus 5.5Complete150 of 150298 of 3002 refused100%1,044 verdicts100%459 verdicts100%430 verdicts, 2 refused100%453 verdicts
Gemini 4 ArgonIn progress150 of 150296 of 300100%1,038 verdicts100%450 verdicts100%440 verdicts, 4 refused100%444 verdicts
Claude Fable 5.1Paused120 of 15035 of 30069%155 verdicts35%53 verdicts31%49 verdicts40%62 verdicts

Agreement between judges

Every judge scores all five hypotheses of every task in the generation benchmark. The rank correlation and the weighted kappa show how closely the 0 to 5 scores of each pair of judges agree.

Judges▲Rank correlation▼Weighted kappa▲Identical scores▲Answers scored by both▲
GPT-5.6 Sol and Grok 4.70.660.6879%2,997
Claude Opus 5.5 and Gemini 4 Argon (medium)0.660.6450%2,997
GPT-5.6 Sol and Gemini 4 Argon (medium)0.630.6259%2,997
GPT-5.6 Sol and Claude Opus 5.50.590.4536%2,997
Grok 4.7 and Gemini 4 Argon (medium)0.580.5257%2,997
Grok 4.7 and Claude Opus 5.50.570.3832%2,997

Speed of each model

From our record of every request since 13 October. Model time is how long a model took to answer one request.

Model▲Role▲Answered requests▲Model time, median, seconds▲Tokens per second▼Tokens per hour of work▲
Gemini 4 ArgonProposes hypotheses and ideas3,40887134828,370
Claude Sonnet 5.5Predicts the confirmation of hypotheses1,39478973,975
Claude Fable 5.1Proposes hypotheses and ideas9756964163,754
Claude Opus 5.5Proposes hypotheses and ideas, and judges6,3781862163,358
Grok 4.7Judge4,1953257203,884
Grok 4.5Proposes hypotheses and ideas5,2684347200,101
Gemini 4 Argon (medium)Judge3,06993310,994
GPT-5.6 SolJudge10,91483046,006
GPT-6 AstraProposes hypotheses and ideas4,538222058,513