{
  "protocol": "forecast-extension-20261023",
  "condition": "balanced-opus",
  "frozenAt": "2026-10-23T10:11:57.262Z",
  "cohortSha256": "4f247b703f31db077e6e403dcd1adc1de79bf53a9ef12c6a94775850168b445e",
  "coinSha256": "847a6cab2ea3daaa049630f73b066125be59a559f80e5ef0f2d0d23d5f5c7b15",
  "requestHashes": {
    "claude-sonnet-5-5": "66572c874bed5be4c931b15ee88c7fbdbdd9eb0e92b7c52793e7a8a78c1805b5",
    "gpt-6-astra": "99323c7a0aae210158ccd96f29d0b6a35969a2fac8c982e92235ffdd9062af1d",
    "gemini-4-argon-high": "94bcb24d103b032929f10301737427888931d9f4c841944b83f7ee6215b9f8ae",
    "grok-4.5": "3babbacfb832a03bd72ff9902375bd28e82db378001df0fc9fe64c2e0e38e636",
    "claude-opus-5-5": "8c85a666312871506b1b3fea61ac9863c14fb165c03b19cbc3f329a011244892"
  },
  "codeHashes": {
  },
  "sourceHashes": {
    "benchmark/rediscovery-tasks.json": "068c3136304a39fb31e7a68aa933ce5b4949a46d7f23d5b32fc67c53a688e8f0",
    "parent/cohort.json": "4f247b703f31db077e6e403dcd1adc1de79bf53a9ef12c6a94775850168b445e",
    "parent/coin.json": "847a6cab2ea3daaa049630f73b066125be59a559f80e5ef0f2d0d23d5f5c7b15",
    "parent/protocol.json": "14a9274109bd4f337eae2a4e20be58938ea56715e888f67dc85ae7ffc1e5fec8"
  },
  "models": [
    {
      "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5",
      "trainingCutoff": "2026-06-30",
      "providerDatePrecision": "month",
      "source": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/models/sonnet-5-5/overview",
      "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
      "model": "gpt-6-astra",
      "declaredCutoff": "2026-04-30",
      "boundaryKind": "knowledge_cutoff",
      "providerDatePrecision": "day",
      "source": "https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-6-astra",
      "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22",
      "sourceScopeNote": "Official knowledge cutoff; not a separately documented endpoint for every training stage"
    },
    {
      "model": "gemini-4-argon-high",
      "declaredCutoff": "2026-03-31",
      "boundaryKind": "knowledge_cutoff",
      "providerDatePrecision": "month",
      "source": "https://deepmind.google/models/model-cards/gemini-4-argon/",
      "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22",
      "sourceScopeNote": "Official Gemini 4 knowledge cutoff; high is the original reasoning setting"
    },
    {
      "model": "grok-4.5",
      "declaredCutoff": "2026-01-31",
      "boundaryKind": "pretraining_cutoff",
      "providerDatePrecision": "month",
      "source": "https://cursor.com/resources/grok-4-5-model-card.pdf",
      "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22",
      "sourceScopeNote": "Joint SpaceXAI and Cursor model card dated 2026-07-14, section 1.2: January 2026 pretraining cutoff. Supplemental midtraining and post-training are disclosed without a separate final data date; the later Grok 4.6 summary does not establish a different Grok 4.5 pretraining cutoff"
    },
    {
      "model": "claude-opus-5-5",
      "trainingCutoff": "2026-06-30",
      "providerDatePrecision": "month",
      "source": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/models/opus-5-5/overview",
      "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22"
    }
  ],
  "parentProtocolSha256": "14a9274109bd4f337eae2a4e20be58938ea56715e888f67dc85ae7ffc1e5fec8",
  "parentCohortSha256": "4f247b703f31db077e6e403dcd1adc1de79bf53a9ef12c6a94775850168b445e",
  "newCallsOnly": [
    "claude-opus-5-5"
  ],
  "parentAnalysisSha256": "5fd6b215ab92f9287731e33857ae1d460c0d9254d68b14729c4a9d2115e72b73",
  "parentStrictAnalysisSha256": "924b7b05af50c46b872f204ad99f51d66892857554c6d16f16628443cb5bec4a",
  "requestUnits": 100,
  "hypotheses": 100,
  "sourceCount": 50,
  "pilot": "First three fixed request units, technical checks only; retain unchanged in full run",
  "maxResponseAttempts": 2,
  "maxTokens": 32000,
  "tools": false,
  "parsing": "Strict original execution; primary first single-unambiguous-JSON analysis from original complete raw replies, same fixed two-response budget; strict sensitivity analysis retained",
  "extractionSourceSha256": "9ca4d161f996dfd66e13b812bc4fd940e76db1e547d67e6d8aab9f529b813189",
  "question": "Will this hypothesis be confirmed experimentally?",
  "combinations": "All 31 nonempty subsets and all minimum-vote thresholds, 80 rules; exact vote counts 0..5",
  "comparison": "Exact common valid identities for every combination and individual/coin baseline; technical gaps remain separate",
  "uncertainty": "10000 paired source/question-cluster percentile bootstrap replicates; seed 20261022",
  "selection": "Exploratory full-cohort balanced-accuracy maximum and TP/FP Pareto frontier, no held-out superiority claim",
  "companyDependence": "Sonnet and Opus are both Anthropic models; five predictors represent four companies, not five independent sources",
  "referenceScope": "Frozen constructed experimental 50/50 labels from 50 papers"
}