{ "protocolClarifications": { "kind": "scope_wording_clarification_only", "recordedAt": "2026-10-23T22:25:22.739571+00:00", "aggregateForecastQualityRead": false, "field": "referenceScope", "clarification": "The frozen protocol's generic sentence that the generator forecasts its own hypotheses applies only when the generator appears in the explicitly frozen predictor roster. The Opus 5.5 generator is not one of this run's four predictors. Sonnet 5.5 shares its company, Anthropic. The exact four predictors remain Sonnet 5.5, GPT-6 Astra, Gemini 4 Argon High and Grok 4.5. The Gemini-generated cohort does include its generator as a predictor.", "unchanged": [ "protocol.json bytes", "predictor roster", "hypotheses", "reference labels", "coin", "scientific requests", "response budget", "selection rule" ] }, "protocol": "generated-forecast-20261023", "version": "2026-10-23", "condition": "claude-opus-5-5-generated", "generator": "claude-opus-5-5", "handling": "first_unambiguous_json", "design": { "protocol": "generated-forecast-20261023", "condition": "claude-opus-5-5-generated", "generator": "claude-opus-5-5", "arm": "N", "frozenAt": "2026-10-23T22:09:09.567Z", "cohortSha256": "2585e4078d9e937f40eb73ff8032f632b2267a65c1b3ba0582a3d2ff6e14e718", "coinSha256": "a9f535483a7c57478b4b9a30436ddec9b729c1dfa475a422334505f92bb7ca0d", "requestHashes": { "claude-sonnet-5-5": "0c0f11c64671dc8041d7821a34092bbb260261a80e3770a2097fa3b28fdb8498", "gpt-6-astra": "ed17cbe83b2b2720cfd9d978456f1159994fe810bc621fe5cfc9421a9ba7c9eb", "gemini-4-argon-high": "92b9a3c64b734942aef806dc1992b4d0b4042a57f274a81c4039f450d64580fd", "grok-4.5": "3267f2733d35a4ecf78d67f41a5fb54f05dfcc407c352894c20d346926130c84" }, "codeHashes": { }, "sourceHashes": { "benchmark/rediscovery-tasks.json": "068c3136304a39fb31e7a68aa933ce5b4949a46d7f23d5b32fc67c53a688e8f0", "benchmark/coin-tosses.json": "e2d9b19dd08bf214671712a12e4709140ecb0a9903edbfd800c909e08b208547", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42581103-N.json": "5ed7e4cdbb1f8c53f5e1834550f93c28fb53624aea0026e739b193337a58117b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42581103-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "0dabf2572f70c38d4fbd5da1e56c7873082bcad114a30673ae81e89cbad9ad2b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42581103-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "d8806c934356fa00cec49e99ee158d67c9d99fb82e49071bbc1f264ee5321e29", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42581103-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "cfaba5f03a6e7728149a9454dc338b3486f7c36d1994cff05f3e2b4187e43d8e", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42581103.json": "5c1941ae2fa9fe444d25717a6043a1adc53684b153863d14dc93c2b70494e4ef", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42601407-N.json": "3bea2aed26d5ee9974d68aaaa4ce1738b3a99e5c9b76d63a29a3e44e3c04847b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42601407-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "80799e7c207e73db5e79b1f6894e3fc107d5f128f90101d03ff45db4b46b7023", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42601407-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "c7734c84c8c2367a6c807e909480030c10d238b1d2c76b9a7fd80caf71ceea6e", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42601407-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "bd61fb3f6f823d15b25c4e32e7c42f51018d6c9446679b982d837da3bcac0352", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42601407.json": "4e2ce010756ef968110e0470a823c56a35bbf1bc1c2be05cc22ee1ff4484e8d4", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42605193-N.json": "2aa9785d87ea9673815f690afd184185dc0813a43436452438c5a5be2f6db565", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42605193-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "9b9ce11ec14a87d2e94991f10fb5e3966c12e893a8c046ddeb5b38f325041266", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42605193-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "4696f0b734bb9dd3c424ca8750bc0ec733378d8e8efdff24fc2219f7af332ceb", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42605193-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "1caf4117845c113d059a6931efce74c67abe34edfeb40e142c07268dbba80290", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42605193.json": "d2a6dc7deb692653cf5b257ad54ab3e0601daee8e9bdbd4eb0c8b3a86827f810", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42608398-N.json": "508b61e38f2b2b9be6f94c2fd288407c54638c8ad4d50dbd4c84d8fb01533b8a", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42608398-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "75be1169c2ad38d75dee6e453306f2f73d7a5c82f6e66d71468a1469e973f5d9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42608398-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "707b48acdceb157e84e324db6ac26dc163ab263997387c115f8de8cec317c366", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42608398-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "c344d8421a7d02b3d25e1fb6c9c629d97958e4a03cb3ebbd0de140dd876baf56", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42608398.json": "2affc7ebfb766320eb6e1e333d57932249d82f651c766bec4420a4add277e2f5", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42627902-N.json": "ebfecc754ac74d9d7e83e061bbfc7d03d4b54c105906444511c1a7947644410f", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42627902-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "68acb9902b8bc3d06ae8aa7247042b6bab49aa7cb539385230610038237e3e43", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42627902-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "97ca4db500003f79f61ba48ba7940119b02ef24487c58f6dcafe6400c039e4c7", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42627902-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "b1eebf1339bc0940354e9af9a239751450c5395069f1e67e070c45acb2d04c55", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42627902.json": "4eef147ac314b026898553f24abc4b9d77411a701c90952630a834cf7a21a3a9", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42630044-N.json": "334ac7f990b1b7fe73130ea63ff2e812675be2aad7a65efa69e59897d640da85", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42630044-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "f8dbc7c50841565c6289a625cc91ef3ae41a7f86b46af08bae770cdaaa604058", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42630044-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "f7b52e8058aaea377ad1d219177aa75adbe6167324d13c0e90e7ac83dc6b1a5d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42630044-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "6dae011a76b7675c285420fb6a4eeae16eb4c0607329ab749391b76d97882f09", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42630044.json": "2802601671cc252ae8d238ff7510b7543b3cb6ed83502a373300fdac3caf3818", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42639736-N.json": "39dc114e104f05e6c36b9d204cd3b24d3cd8bfca93328719851b52a6c5ee4dd1", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42639736-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "fa79fc16db35bb6715e9f0e70a480ea01b95215a029cb4e1b12c6d765e4982d2", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42639736-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "a591a0f671eb4841bfeb787b1914e99d4e33d5a750ba41a396fc1a71d9e6e7c7", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42639736-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7cb3e02120cfa0ab4edeb4ed7e22b503ff344b7d145f33a1879fb6625d550990", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42639736.json": "113e459f6757f74a8bfd48dd293ad6864e4766b953ec484da64db7d4019173d2", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642518-N.json": "8b9d2941574ad51b01d6e0497e3d6202bcf42a4aa7656f48414c0a6b81157134", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642518-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "a85fa16f7ba7ab0b68362086e94aecd7dba3bd66130c78679d443e3949f7cb30", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642518-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "b5aa0f34fa2ccb8bcca24bf9d00d067fbf630627dfbd372e2225b4bba1a7e591", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642518-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "178fe9c4ce5d77630d50514e645738f93f1b6bfa8b9b44a6d80ae00d36bb8941", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42642518.json": "74beaa73d2bc399a8bf6174ac8af57d37a132113c3acc68e61a8cef05c81a207", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642521-N.json": "b215f118fdc9e52517467a7870101537d5b840fd81f82f25ce933cc7b8fc956f", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642521-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "307553eba42fdf169467b45ea42314c45ebf8dbd9152176d16520a0628a300a9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642521-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "1f1381f2f378b9462b51b8561ff8daeb9b288ae8c172a10d2abfc76545b201e4", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42642521-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "99a623bd9812736e553cf0b6ba75aff49b3bea5b794bf743ca6988e62ce32fa6", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42642521.json": "2fbe5ceb76034a368c52157301a2d18aff0f7eaabf227ffadce6a8795e6b9f9a", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647119-N.json": "239bc0cf417b58843fa1d748ac739077aab451d7a61473b7a9151a888dcbbd0b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647119-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "17c6e3a224bdf6f3533b2844a390a206182fadf02dcfe9a8200a4f16262e7393", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647119-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "813f991285e6a33f3126bc2dfb6d4af620838933a80e6056f6c4477a8db45b79", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647119-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "24292b361ca2864c68fd76ba78fd6b39da91f277531c8ac3492d7c8c7af45d26", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42647119.json": "9a5f475c801f07a93364ec5218fcd1b93f25d61525ecd7e911a6bdca5d7bcd74", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647635-N.json": "731aaae26a1bf09577961c157cc78a4573a11bf69df2ee69be9d73534324165f", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647635-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "63dabc69811c4deccf7931ee42a981583ad290717f7cadcb64c41b21230783f5", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647635-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "10ee009f5ae006448ed5007a5568a442f8fd124468262836335e032c21006c61", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42647635-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "4ee2e0691d9699075a5d620c22527865fdad6996e4fc6d2cf64c56f1bc35ad87", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42647635.json": "ff359c36fac074a2a6a6ea150b5fd756c27519c6951a73cfbba40bf8905445de", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42663085-N.json": "8a12d732c2672175069c2ab6ade4dae43f5b272ecaf7273a806cad06b1e1c062", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42663085-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "c590812a99e45a6e39ed8fa44e524949f9a91e3c6c421b3370a71fafd42e9bc6", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42663085-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "926fd4ccc543266c05420165639962dd00b0790d66456e6e888eb0a96ce92a66", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42663085-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "80aff1122b7dc709cca6ea676fb51a886d0f11b245d460ec3696c5aa4a7f302a", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42663085.json": "e833a970ab954dc73ad2c59c3762319f93f08b4358729baf05ed22353a2e3b51", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42664348-N.json": "69beb625f2f29cf9e0b5a08494197c7dec25db0b026698c5926ef8447eb6d069", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42664348-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "1a8780a9b7a90820e8e69b60167ec52f57ae0cfd6afe5b6a1f37f459f0385391", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42664348-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "62b33536f68ff30ce15f286ce04554b55c4d3d1fac117d74a49a969701ccfcf2", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42664348-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "18819238b02807c6ef284eae060101dadc7976d91f594dc41b3ae4b4dbbe6e34", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42664348.json": "020547c9c8ed1f12e2e2a325b4b7a864c6f6457b337c1187d784bf40da847464", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42665751-N.json": "16062642c626fe4993cbe07c49972a0231a3faced68710e502e7cd2539a6c8b9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42665751-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "364deaf004cda820c425fa23290c55ec37c6f1c49f1ce7f8ab1f0b74b43c81ba", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42665751-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "ad37c1072e89e3917268f0143f14309e5a2288690d0657a39dc28967d9a2c2eb", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42665751-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "e786262a6c56f8647d16581776601f3c466b44ce0346afe1cc205cf0372fc00e", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42665751.json": "1454efa58125ff0fe9961560518a56d7b719a3d008256220c035d74df4bb8e10", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42689491-N.json": "dcbed48510dd153fafde4e27c668a7e1db4c34ce46830b81d297a4635ba74669", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42689491-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "1e6b4b76eaff9a9e86c5071cf8ac577aa9c189a41a4e8bb585c66afa4b440381", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42689491-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "69e930c119c0c6a03f11a392b2c41c2ba634dda0ee6b54b1b0d6b313afbc7c64", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42689491-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7320e53cbede1410a60e580838e07425c06076b48e9008468af0a8eea881a1ca", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42689491.json": "ee5ba161a2c3f81cd9063221a58eb04c5f6a2301ae4dd34edaccfeb772c7afb1", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42696595-N.json": "5f383e903a405fa2e9f10c1fb8425094a5286d6704a72aac70943fe1b3ffa5e9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42696595-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "04836a59fc8f3c612f40403c29f281be265ec6352827db63f1e019b6dbb1ffe6", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42696595-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "d09c59e616d36d03472cfbef219bfc82879d90878c7821c497a17cb3d7a2bcfe", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42696595-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "b2d52ff4b35046e1736263657362302fafaed8ad0738b000f3004550b109c866", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42696595.json": "5a65b7d7d64161ca5e8f56993d67e7b3ed5fe72f1978587bca35ef4a8b2137bc", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42698274-N.json": "807c50de2d905431743d59ec2cb1d4aece4315a192f32f04f608f007229bd6cf", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42698274-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "b30b20fc0e95a21d26e76021ed648513085add7fa0f53d48f2f2584a50750062", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42698274-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "da51c8139fbb314f44073c5a6ece5a519d4e7c922a5db157e2ed88a367819c99", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42698274-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "eb308ef5a42b2516bcdd62745d8193b5a94dee6567501162a4694c6357ce7a14", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42698274.json": "8fc555d4d0b13711f43d4ee79b499d643ab12262c248aaaf4598f1b311cb0f2a", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42717261-N.json": "70093168d6a2bc215ed16c55ec07224f272809e18ffdbe2895a30af5e6131c6a", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42717261-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "dca76d50cec2e886b70f0fbbdeebee3deebfb756c170c8dff64bd600ad73bcba", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42717261-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "65a6ae015a25111415f407bf9b1d22fb8c459ae8dd8afaf8e153d7dc55d5f4cb", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42717261-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "f51fc1fbae7af4ecac637946f4cf722a66181d2c2617e3ae4fcf2fd10f201fbe", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42717261.json": "22b31ffdc3b5f0153e076f4ae82c350df1804b64f5785f36427796332f649ae2", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723546-N.json": "ccdadcf2533c18f3573d6c053c03a6a74a07f7264559d9a1118131ccf6b94b02", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723546-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "9144859deb3a89f0685d388aa312635bb53b8fdfa55fa61998f8f92e6318ec36", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723546-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "bfdcc7ba4a324af4c8145e0096e3b1dfbbe22b206b9f7b316b55795297342d4d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723546-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "012999a8826d6c26bfeffe8e5d31f3e5318fb146cba4e72eb5bf2b539a5c9962", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42723546.json": "ede3def9d1235fdab9b58109d3d912ced36e4bd4f3cbee9b66a728d9d9d86648", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42725837-N.json": "990be86c871368e001f152cabc055386cf4fba704fa3dee2230c5727bab44659", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42725837-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "59cb4fafca6fbabffc480841fe40b49ae149483d6a800f1f28109d36b8af7bb6", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42725837-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "2ed6da3c43bdc883325f7c007999a12152406938b1478cc68806392884e8c3d6", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42725837-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "d077263831e5e606462a07c80add96d85ef16409759050a33aa7f4c32baed266", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42725837.json": "f882512cfc78cf5aadd082ffa7de355562009cef2c7249aeaefec9577e23ed77", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42736449-N.json": "d827bdf31e8287f00615c70eb989e1b9044edd27bbb717ad26aa10f299a13ebb", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42736449-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "06b1f789e7bfbcc38abb7afb956a35a875ba9e46f6316171e097246453f93216", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42736449-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "713c02a684838bddbd7f29e9940fa29037c305464840de66224c47c8b635efa3", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42736449-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "f6371390c7d4cd856bc38cebe150a0fc412f14f795db0e39b70da945f381c9ef", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42736449.json": "24ca01968ef074a621248e48ac4495d4c6af08c981f10d300ec756ae177f9114", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42744804-N.json": "b9418e2fa14ad295f8be7764c6ed1198553142d5b7ca9aac1bee372efe7b1335", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42744804-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "359cb223f0e834b29abdcdeff039a0d4c5014f5c62132b1146c10338393d0cb1", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42744804-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "952dae63d6ca24a74bb6e31e68e4a8d5e18ac0e8fafe34eec32d8f2f00c73d60", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42744804-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "510c064d8a2cc2bdefe00d520331346871d87780c16f2d17f7590ee6101f89c8", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42744804.json": "6f91cb12f10c40f65f9a9296f3787ef64b1a38dd967019ce86eb9f65f7dd25ca", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42749700-N.json": "05eb2b42ff094bfee9768d3ac2f912879fece03c095ce1ec19d3a9c36feab2da", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42749700-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "60aad21c338272652441bc77824014feb23a7e9c69baf4b32fc7d09e080c4459", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42749700-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "801a9ee42533dc37f3c4acccb1ae9d4a0247e9c907d9c218ed351d2f8b5cb042", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42749700-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "ff90c95813840223a84085afbd2b722e4bf0b65775e63a05f9e9564e30412940", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42749700.json": "41a8c4349c3d4822633ebd7df038e8fe0538e12c791e9250a6b1f1fb54389a6b", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42758848-N.json": "3429b781ffd820160449464113199f9f1a6e10af7f99349fdc7d429bb159ee27", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42758848-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "dc46fac665812f19d4f53ebd3e308d0a257e74007ece127880bb025ac1e48e49", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42758848-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "7863a3a8d6c8659b63e1568662ac249df6c5ad047af8aeacc57e83f041722fae", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42758848-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "fcee53b3f69b15f7e42a90b358dd3351ab2b74a0556023e310dc197194150c46", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42758848.json": "a5b6ffd09182c55303af260ede2be8f75daa8b2afa91224de1566506a725acf3", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42759510-N.json": "32e65d4c00e64ef9fbd9f30c730b4eb52c538719e78f3d5358a1436a4c1112fa", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42759510-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "5ebc957db24c9a3a3c02b16b852c99dc7b1446358f2f3c7a3f2e3f756f167246", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42759510-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "b8d3107da1529c9fe9bb98996bece488cf694086940755cc0acd9571cd7103ec", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42759510-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "bf95ff9a1c4668a37dc38cf81071a9e3a269b5d27f00fc8d6c5dcdf2c975e8dc", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42759510.json": "03ed3241592a911eb7afb17f3420769cdc7cb842c5dacb762c03ad658bfcbe41", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775695-N.json": "59bb803ca0f9e77122ef7f2be81d9e065acadb7777cbf1301c22b8215f12f510", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775695-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "dd609681eab28cc7e212695ef616aa1c73ae7dc894dd0823f7b08c545de56c46", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775695-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "0234ffeeffebd2523a12e61bfef253b30fa3b9fed24e1aa9731127c7eb664823", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775695-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "f6cec9e637ccb0161482d03788f84bfd8202afc34ebc276e074fb9f5d13b2ac9", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42775695.json": "7154e3d9594f685a0597d197a1bd248e9b2c74877b93432c77bbd7d12e0fb40f", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775698-N.json": "ece720565a4e3fec46e57cb1f7542694019e880e64f7419e27d4dc944f4ec557", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775698-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "728440f66468c41981d316ff196245c75eb3b86ece820ce23e46e9e539b95a62", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775698-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "a6f4c3dca6e8756dbe2a4fd178af04dc15fdb59f7e9a87510c7a9a0e58791785", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42775698-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "6e698939a8ca77342d879723bb3c6c6e18f94ee946284da7a40537c03d505187", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42775698.json": "4e62373433b432017d88e093edf9e3c89b6ce919e1061333f365ceed9a8a7746", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42786310-N.json": "25558566b19457bc878fa861ba1cf9bf8998bcc46248ec6abd00f4a9f5f3a72c", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42786310-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "f87dc824e92d434b86f4db0917f618c3e209522ef6824af43a4998b03e503f6e", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42786310-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "0ca6291939b08898ace877dd7fedae736eac64a9aea4b91e6365ec90ea924451", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42786310-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "359c7dd44efcef50bea2693a450e4665ab7796d0ce5fbfb7b03252485e3d4160", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42786310.json": "a442312ce7d33e857a4fcb17fac731988aacb02d551100a93487817ed98266d8", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42805954-N.json": "5c99c5dc4112e8b2b84595b55be82bce3dc0d0ecd80445f803a199c6bb4dd1dc", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42805954-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "191bddc1042e90a4ab02bebe22c27d992ec292ee65f162b39618714742a4fbe3", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42805954-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "19df2912d000500d9108c4ea541f1a2c90f3ae3facf9ee76fbee1bafb1f22677", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42805954-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "d9a0e3fdf19a8d1592e502b91bfe178da42ce2beeab693eaba19fd58e208be04", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42805954.json": "63ce449723c29c4a63d6ecefcce6d11e7c108c9a5de7d8ea7c9fbb416e11e5fd", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42810392-N.json": "505d8329900d517b1c882516aa9cf5f1e2779bbdafaa27a945122917c2764db9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42810392-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "0c93a40bbc8f00b2caba3fef354cc9e600f64c2d26d7b860174341ed973b811f", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42810392-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "f2629d35a5f778a1746d62a5987a0142b7b825ef9107b3ea88a068681a5afec1", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42810392-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "00ccb1eadb0b5dc7565548a36e091f07f85ba1139e04e3900f8ccd7cecffcc34", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42810392.json": "f1108d01df89c43887402bc2d08fe08f32243bf9a140ad3eb1ca6f199b97a314", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811497-N.json": "2a218c40a95e5041e96018a23e3f50d29b01058697711b00af8110619a4c8555", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811497-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "93fadf04551fcb4124251fdbd50fbfc95cd9ccee733496aed22c316f74f29fb0", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811497-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "8c69ae7fe7a58e35b2368cfb0d33bd7c2c3d95f9e1d1fb806ca72cae32a9df25", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811497-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7095351d409ee2b19140ab048ffadc12eaa0a6fb90477ddf737c09daa051938d", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42811497.json": "097b90b1703ac5ae612729004a77dd19449c322f8845b046eb035f9e9fe0072e", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42821663-N.json": "bd654e91d98f39672cc3d7f2389fb00ca12c50a0e313e9c83bf0a2100ebdc611", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42821663-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "7dd6ba76e20063db7b986797838abef95b3856b17e32d5def6dd99cb222bd9d7", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42821663-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "21973a3b014705358db3104b6da8f729e96e1cb6f4c3ef00e673e868bafb3bfc", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42821663-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "6cc1d1e17bebfbc6b3edb6c2f675ea03f0608b704ba6c01678f85d4cd1f29fec", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42821663.json": "8a1778e859adc325aa08b5525ca65ac3dcb3a636c9a8a284bd008b36cff94cd1", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42822442-N.json": "94392e48dc79a4d80ce9c104497316f900fa97c8ea0bc484f8a71d4d44c6c7dc", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42822442-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "537a8bc7e5c6219e6603debbf815ededabd3c8715ee412541010d8aa118e4d93", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42822442-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "66fac905393331fd43d46c74c64acd8825c105c3c57703ee8a44cf2b462f3325", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42822442-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "4e753ff92688c9f4ebfb28e3a20b2f79fcd97863bfd6fb76ac5d1833545ae28c", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42822442.json": "92fffd9dd32d8ad347a092b994733904cf5fae7fde0b399bef5b4d9c1d85961f", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42826184-N.json": "cfed665d40a78c8f077ec7b525ad40e5990d2a73e07e6cddcfc3d3db6fdba912", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42826184-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "21d700fa7c42dc450ec9dc658a3f474f7bdbd92699413b3b5fde33d50a5545af", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42826184-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "e9da2892a0a54eb6db6a50d2cd4d2660d8a229759b670cc5ab60c01c67a22d8d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42826184-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "0113b8ff5fb94e4e033fc139a50a8de98e405ea3a7515007445220b635e7ad98", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42826184.json": "dc24d46df16c4b3ab0da58ee2eac854f2cd03711f682c9d27c3e0810dd9f2d31", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42839094-N.json": "13fc3244d27588ff7052a2fc30a889ea59e5e6810298a1ffffd5b244a5253795", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42839094-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "b5e570e7035c3d8512d17f2b16ffc988d10bc4551aef00e02641f57633551900", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42839094-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "1ff3ab20962556cfe7f0c70955973f3d2f85726c2b8637356f9c1d43199bdb9b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42839094-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "62f930461af5598867015f3bb331b47c9903c51a15140ea4acff5124a50c3fbd", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42839094.json": "207c04f165fca3b57e4d1cadacf86bebd57a899fee996d735c8e677196d62908", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841227-N.json": "7805604ed9b1d366791da0460f4f1f8365b8fecdaad66ee4177dfdde3a9484b4", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841227-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "5101c9e0211740f36da5b7b36ce61b7696b05b1b2a0327e26577d01c3b50365b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841227-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "31dd67f45365edf0bbf0c564411dce8070e62a58611b6c1310fdd82b12137bba", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841227-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7f1c534fb775e57925ab64a90fa55b3376a4b27b37d45a97da453b4e1fe82c14", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42841227.json": "778ce001b65a73ac02f1542baea8dfd3a02b815e4034e74615f3015a4da35c5e", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42842666-N.json": "f62d0e067e3e9eb33a68f7dfe1f9d466cf9e2c436938be9ec82ac27dfd95e673", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42842666-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "9317368cde64f5a9840c521494d7bc993e8f0731517136e4230cd93756d7efc9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42842666-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "3f56495c1526d935af2ad1905eab2532b567cf9596d5853e9eeaaef77b31fb06", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42842666-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7a39f31349a0e7555a3dfeb5b198a3cf5607c8d900ee2f244e50813336d0cd45", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42842666.json": "4b55f4f514e7761a1b7faf11cdf8788a8aa7688d93db4eaf0e4b0a90657dc49d", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42844664-N.json": "504c7205ea2019aae636ee65252f2c7b876e80bb96632943a6c6baa261bb778d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42844664-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "6702d786b5056325b378a575503908fe0af8361a5bf588e6fd49a5f413e2b76b", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42844664-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "507fe61356011ba8ad6b312ef62d75869299c4a97f3153ea9637abfde19ad475", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42844664-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "a6f307d890ac042a4583e8d4f1cd3267ce91d6b1fecf240ed4ae7e16e9d83ea6", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42844664.json": "f4ddd99e5df65233f9d7861b78580a4c7f77401cb698914145c9319b496953f4", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42853938-N.json": "e759b1c7bda1da57a25a8f288d7370ab92b717f517823176857533fb64c2b886", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42853938-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "78a43d464742f14c7bb237c2d01809554d3d4551125effeb175e2a2fbb4f74c0", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42853938-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "c96edfd8d62dd442002f0360ad727668e84cde738e36c6404379beb4e1ab8c09", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42853938-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "5fe97c1c1f2b37bb215679036a35002c13f389bdc3eff4dbcf08818d0d517868", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42853938.json": "813a879cd9f49c09a3f2ddad4c35adbd14336982fe6e5dc944d955b52472fa1f", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42858183-N.json": "03231c1d3cf5cc679840b42a29d609147f2755c0e1244f04abd40f812010931d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42858183-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "56c815f023fca2c87fdf6c185ff96dd79a319e5856042f1260792bcacc1b01b9", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42858183-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "c2942b1c12aaaa1dd40a7a13d9091abdd6ac925cadd0c6a85eb89b0a967e096e", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42858183-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "7816cb4793aa9e5f2bc25891edf6476cfa9a30cee10ed9295c137e4150a2335e", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42858183.json": "862570ebf41aa383d24f443fa691690a2a60d10040fc14ba3df8563e74a7ecc6", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806945-N.json": "de85c3dc383ef6d1e5fcad452b0db08c7aeb5849c65c5a981520557e5dcd44e1", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806945-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "89c0e7d5852652b260187d75221adb1d4e3f136c3a95702cbf6504654474ff40", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806945-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "1ff5403f7c0c57a60e74bd4c46a16f505e8df36e42a807892be2dfb8e77e4463", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806945-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "e2971e3cced41035de88ae26a4237f2199723688108644782ceb66a22de26966", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42806945.json": "1fdac0ec43a27c04bc2daced28859367146490e040f9eef443748df92876306a", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723144-N.json": "9444cd708c73311b39a6201d11f52204516e4ccb3c96b8d8e8ce2980b97e2a88", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723144-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "c47fa9cbac48b0a7a6a5f72ea7f57266d1fa4f503aa0fed866bc5398398a051d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723144-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "8f4f2b2e360d6d24359dc979735185eb996ec086a8a649f6e1c8b23a8e34f88d", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42723144-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "641dfc9a38434653cd78f45f458e14f6b7cb1f07d7772739da84a2b1efa59360", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42723144.json": "225d8029290c9677182ec2440505ed8c7e9751cf0ad61f1242888da77225b4eb", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42808804-N.json": "3ac34dbe60e81c6f97c2328c4eee4069682f9ce781061b6052da4c482e129926", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42808804-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "25bad50106420df29cc3819f5378fbcce02b0b510f8682f12df16fdf3b7d8326", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42808804-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "10b81023ebd7d7e4b57f3982a97d87306cacb0513d48e5a253331cf4379237cc", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42808804-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "a635901588bd23b2cbafb79ece3cfaf0cad9111543f248b92262eeece34f7ec8", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42808804.json": "be67b12477022ac349ee6f036a700d9ea52f4c7000dbcf9967b8d6b2c591ab86", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42585340-N.json": "7c07a4f8f6975523affd9bfbf7fbefd9a24b75a27a303193b582b714b2412987", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42585340-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "bf33fc2bb499782acaec5bd8287895e6d72ff26e8b8f64a48fa8774ca9047702", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42585340-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "88e766061c5d818642537fc0c56b62081dcb44731df7d61315bc1eb3cbbb3c75", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42585340-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "fe3c909572eb4c10a4c620fe5c27d8f7624626bed77ac2fec184e2c83a162002", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42585340.json": "24c0d67efecb5d4a38f54c979f38298e37c3f630b42d0f9f0c348947d1f926cf", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42669067-N.json": "55153abacbe9ae03240068903d41c0998c2c60feca9c99f4be6fbd874e0ff4a0", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42669067-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "eef711880fb64cf70e61f98900d8e7bb71dda5d338b4d01290b91163c876222a", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42669067-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "5b615696a5f69bddbcc0806a3de68ab64f0a453edab36dfb876532e32cb96bd6", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42669067-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "563d9423c77f5bf81824c0a3be2fbe672d6f396882d55c5fe2a7797e38b2a2e6", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42669067.json": "619a4dda793b2d8f7cc1d8073291d6138253f52bea88a9480018ab156cc7170d", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811065-N.json": "77132af54c488a0d4a6b45228f84f2aded61923b2d644ba865308b0b03a5ef51", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811065-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "90a57ce09ea6b2fb5ea564b354f4d21ba19bdcffc6e75911eea44465b6b7ace7", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811065-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "78e598c7f8ed07549a6811b183c7dc56bea16e90d659d5380b258ee8661c7983", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42811065-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "673132fab754050f19dd3e4f9e1017804346ed3284aa115fb5dfcdc822567099", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42811065.json": "e9d5ea290a527f68e6ac8a57ea8aeae895b5bfb02ff27f91aec40092bfe80cb9", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841610-N.json": "68de74905b4ec1e06e4ccfc501d4566b1000d54f03f599576b08f3bf052b0f33", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841610-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "564974e4e5a5c03ec920362079732a4f0184a98194a25a73c9c48aa2f65d3b75", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841610-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "33ca7f3864a0b1e7bb1b31c8e19cef333e15c4959849c7e8d6f084d681840c29", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42841610-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "423cfba969705f2da47fc11c69759b7428f136fc7f9858c41bf171a700a0e464", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42841610.json": "4c4dd91ebaf7c4b3a2a09c363a2ba223458eeec1245921554369f921fe79f9f7", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806003-N.json": "b98129b2c86ac11814ee0e86f31d3b9cfbacf26791aea95aa0241a0391c8d30a", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806003-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "66eafe4d528611589953bc0e34ba8b0e479480cb9bd0ea1c4c895d3a37c24297", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806003-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "fe0e5cf1b51897444e4405acf028ce6d50ddbd2385856508695a58acad851b20", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806003-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "8bf1e6425013cf50a67c9ee916ae5e185c7b8f408a8ed2b614897ce9c122e6a3", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42806003.json": "27c2712abf56b5bec2678ec32c6b54f65595b87ae6d5e3db5a3f099cf2c0a62c", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806572-N.json": "58bb788d2b7d5124ebbe3d1b4b4a2d8451546de4d7266f1668ecad46ba0f7eac", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806572-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "ed53312bd15ebba3e543b41e6ce13206b8a92ea3101e8a099a90669625692708", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806572-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "d619ebee07b14a32f50d060b477e0e27c73ec6a253b8e9932b3c901a0ebd1d98", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42806572-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "ee76463e88292b576cfda28bfcb8f77f8aeb406ac9218041ef392342cba09841", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42806572.json": "c83c0e0310d9b91da2a38b9a74bbf87cf3d0be564244a411803061b3e26349b7", "benchmark/gen-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42748238-N.json": "fc530c4b0cc926be10be06a6af4bf49569dbba715ba5fb49e805c4a2dad47190", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42748238-N-match2-gpt-5.6-sol.json": "1e2e17f925961e8ad3cd1a534962d02a39183a13a109c9b542032b9028a9ca4c", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42748238-N-match2-gemini-4-argon-medium.json": "493fb995b9898ef2c5367831e15e61cc9df9083b945e2becf335b77e2810d7c1", "benchmark/judge-xmodel/claude-opus-5-5/rediscovery/R42748238-N-match2-grok-4.7.json": "783d3f6195f9be7b73608eaf419bedaeefdc34e71e1b28c993f75bb477fd16b2", "benchmark/preprint-recheck/42748238.json": "5c804e68b13403709f4054269ab8bacd884dc483643992ddcd33e61b040f47e2" }, "models": [ { "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "trainingCutoff": "2026-06-30", "providerDatePrecision": "month", "source": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/models/sonnet-5-5/overview", "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-21" }, { "model": "gpt-6-astra", "declaredCutoff": "2026-04-30", "boundaryKind": "knowledge_cutoff", "providerDatePrecision": "day", "source": "https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-6-astra", "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22", "sourceScopeNote": "Official knowledge cutoff; not a separately documented endpoint for every training stage" }, { "model": "gemini-4-argon-high", "declaredCutoff": "2026-03-31", "boundaryKind": "knowledge_cutoff", "providerDatePrecision": "month", "source": "https://deepmind.google/models/model-cards/gemini-4-argon/", "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22", "sourceScopeNote": "Official Gemini 4 knowledge cutoff; high is the original reasoning setting" }, { "model": "grok-4.5", "declaredCutoff": "2026-01-31", "boundaryKind": "pretraining_cutoff", "providerDatePrecision": "month", "source": "https://cursor.com/resources/grok-4-5-model-card.pdf", "sourceVerifiedOn": "2026-10-22", "sourceScopeNote": "Joint SpaceXAI and Cursor model card dated 2026-07-14, section 1.2: January 2026 pretraining cutoff. Supplemental midtraining and post-training are disclosed without a separate final data date; the later Grok 4.6 summary does not establish a different Grok 4.5 pretraining cutoff" } ], "judges": [ "gpt-5.6-sol", "gemini-4-argon-medium", "grok-4.7" ], "judgeRelationships": { "claude-sonnet-5-5": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [] }, "gpt-6-astra": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ] }, "gemini-4-argon-high": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gemini-4-argon-medium" ] }, "grok-4.5": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "grok-4.7" ] } }, "requestUnits": 50, "hypotheses": 250, "sourceCount": 50, "pilot": "First three fixed request units, technical checks only; retain unchanged in full run", "maxResponseAttempts": 2, "maxTokens": 32000, "tools": false, "parsing": "Strict original execution; primary first single-unambiguous-JSON analysis from original complete raw replies, same fixed two-response budget; strict sensitivity analysis retained", "extractionSourceSha256": "9ca4d161f996dfd66e13b812bc4fd940e76db1e547d67e6d8aab9f529b813189", "question": "For each hypothesis below, will it be confirmed experimentally?", "selectionRule": { "first": "gpt-6-astra", "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 4, "endpoint": "core", "handling": "first_unambiguous_json", "primary": "Article matches among selected hypotheses (positive predictive value)", "secondary": "Selected article matches among all reference-positive hypotheses (sensitivity); losses at each stage; four metrics against the original saved coin on identical identities", "reference": "Grok/N retrospective path on 2026-10-23: 240 input, 53 after Astra, 19 after unanimity, 14 of 19 article matches, 14 of 40 sensitivity", "fixedBeforeCalls": true }, "combinations": "All nonempty subsets of the four predictors and all minimum-vote thresholds, 32 rules; exact vote counts 0..4", "comparison": "Exact common valid identities for every combination and individual/coin baseline; technical gaps remain separate", "uncertainty": "10000 paired source/question-cluster percentile bootstrap replicates; seed 20261022", "referenceScope": "Saved article correspondence, not experimental confirmation or refutation; the generator forecasts its own hypotheses like Grok did in the Grok cohort" }, "cohort": { "generator": "claude-opus-5-5", "arm": "N", "judges": [ "gpt-5.6-sol", "gemini-4-argon-medium", "grok-4.7" ], "referenceRule": "At least two of three judges from other companies (gpt-5.6-sol, gemini-4-argon-medium, grok-4.7) score >=3 (core) or >=4 (strict) on the unchanged six-level article-correspondence scale. Unmatched hypotheses are not experimentally refuted.", "historicalIsolation": "Original generation/judge requests do not carry complete current per-request no-tools proof; current forecasts are separately audited.", "tasks": [ { "id": "R42581103", "pmid": "42581103", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01170-7", "title": "TNFR1 signaling connects inflammation to impaired fatty acid oxidation to drive intestinal stem cell aging.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism by which an age-associated systemic inflammatory factor impairs intestinal stem-cell function.", "background": "Intestinal stem-cell function and regenerative capacity decline with age, compromising maintenance and repair of the intestinal epithelium. Both cell-intrinsic changes and signals from the aged systemic environment may contribute to this decline. Chronic inflammation and altered cellular metabolism are common features of ageing, but how circulating conditions are translated into functional defects in intestinal regeneration was unresolved. It was also unclear whether manipulating systemic or metabolic processes could preserve or restore aged stem-cell activity.", "question": "How does the aged systemic environment causally impair intestinal stem-cell metabolism and regenerative function?", "subject": "Systemic control of ISC ageing", "finding": "Age-associated TNF acts as a systemic pro-ageing factor that signals through epithelial TNFR1 to suppress mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation, proliferation and regenerative capacity in intestinal stem cells. Blocking inflammation or TNF–TNFR1 signaling protects or restores ISC function, while enhancing mitochondrial fusion improves the function of aged ISCs.", "key_points": [ "The old systemic environment transfers an ISC ageing phenotype to young mice.", "TNF is a causal pro-ageing inflammatory factor.", "Epithelial TNFR1 is required for the detrimental systemic effect.", "TNF suppresses mitochondrial pathways and fatty acid oxidation.", "Countering inflammation or improving mitochondrial function restores ISC activity." ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "The aged systemic environment acts largely indirectly, through chronic over-activation of nutrient-sensing mTORC1 in the ISC niche (Paneth and stromal cells), which mis-tunes the paracrine support ISCs require; lowering mTORC1 tone systemically (rapamycin, caloric restriction) restores aged ISC metabolism and regeneration. Mechanism: Aged circulating nutrients/insulin-IGF1 tone sustain mTORC1 in niche cells, altering their secretion of Wnt3, Notch ligands and the cADPR/mTORC1-dependent nutrient relay; ISCs consequently receive a signal pattern that favours differentiation and low-OXPHOS metabolism, and ISC-level AMPK/mTORC1 balance shifts away from the autophagy-competent state needed for stress survival. Prediction: Aged Paneth cells, not aged ISCs, are the dominant defective partner in young-ISC/aged-niche reciprocal organoid co-cultures; niche-restricted Raptor deletion or short-term rapamycin in aged mice rescues ISC OXPHOS and crypt regeneration, whereas ISC-restricted mTORC1 inhibition does not — discriminating niche-mediated from stem-cell-autonomous causation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Aged ISCs fail to regenerate because mitochondrial quality control (fission/fusion and mitophagy) is impaired, producing a dysfunctional, ROS-leaky mitochondrial network that triggers a stress response incompatible with the proliferative burst required after injury. The defect is enforced by the aged systemic environment but executed cell-intrinsically. Mechanism: Reduced Drp1-dependent fission and PINK1/Parkin-mediated mitophagy in aged ISCs allow accumulation of damaged mitochondria; resulting mitochondrial ROS and the mitochondrial integrated stress response (ATF4/CHOP) impose a p21/p38-dependent proliferative brake and push cells toward differentiation rather than self-renewal. Prediction: Aged ISCs show enlarged, depolarised mitochondria with elevated mitoROS; mitochondria-targeted antioxidant (e.g. SkQ1/MitoQ) or genetic restoration of mitophagy increases aged crypt regeneration after irradiation/DSS, while whole-cell cytosolic antioxidants do not — localising the lesion to mitochondrial quality control rather than bulk oxidative stress.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Aged circulation causes a shift in ISC substrate preference from fatty-acid oxidation to glycolysis/glutaminolysis, and this metabolic switch is itself the proximal cause of reduced regenerative capacity. Restoring fatty-acid oxidation flux in aged ISCs is sufficient to rescue regeneration. Mechanism: Reduced systemic availability or signalling of lipid ligands (e.g. PPARδ/PPARα agonism, lower circulating free fatty-acid handling, altered bile-acid composition) lowers CPT1a-dependent mitochondrial fatty-acid oxidation in ISCs; because FAO-derived acetyl-CoA sustains both ATP and histone acetylation at stemness loci, its loss simultaneously reduces proliferative output and destabilises the ISC identity program. Prediction: Aged ISCs show reduced 13C-palmitate oxidation but near-normal glucose oxidation; pharmacological PPARδ agonism or CPT1a overexpression restricted to Lgr5+ cells rescues aged organoid formation and post-injury crypt regeneration, while equivalent boosting of glycolysis does not — separating a substrate-specific FAO deficit from a global energy shortfall.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines from the aged systemic environment (notably IL-6 family / TNF-driven signalling) act directly on intestinal stem cells (ISCs) via JAK–STAT3 activation, rewiring them away from oxidative metabolism and suppressing regenerative proliferation. Blocking this axis in aged mice restores crypt regeneration without changing the systemic milieu itself. Mechanism: Aged plasma cytokines bind receptors on Lgr5+ ISCs and/or adjacent niche cells; chronic STAT3 activation induces a stress/inflammatory transcriptional program that lowers mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation and fatty-acid oxidation capacity, reducing ATP/acetyl-CoA available for the biosynthetic demands of symmetric self-renewal divisions after injury. Prediction: Heterochronic plasma transfer (aged plasma into young mice) reduces organoid-forming efficiency and post-irradiation crypt survival, and this is abolished by ISC-autonomous Stat3 deletion or receptor-blocking antibody, whereas cytokine-neutralised aged plasma fails to impair young ISCs — distinguishing a direct cytokine-receptor effect from generic nutrient or hormonal differences in aged serum.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "The aged systemic environment imposes a one-carbon/methionine-cycle limitation on ISCs, lowering SAM availability and thereby destabilising the epigenetic maintenance of stem-cell identity. Dietary or pharmacological restoration of methionine-cycle flux rescues aged regenerative capacity. Mechanism: Age-associated changes in circulating amino acids and microbiota-derived metabolites reduce methionine and folate-cycle input to ISCs; falling SAM:SAH ratio reduces H3K4/H3K36 methylation at Wnt-responsive and ISC-signature genes, shifting crypt cells toward a differentiated, low-proliferative state and blunting injury-induced de-differentiation of secretory progenitors. Prediction: Aged ISCs display lower SAM:SAH and reduced H3K4me3 at ISC-signature loci; methionine supplementation or MAT2A activation restores both the epigenetic marks and organoid-forming capacity in aged crypts, and conversely methionine restriction in young mice phenocopies the aged regenerative deficit — a prediction not shared by purely ATP-centric or cytokine-centric models.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42601407", "pmid": "42601407", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01177-0", "title": "Physical activity delays ovarian aging in part through adiponectin-related signaling pathways.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-14", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally identifies a causal signaling mechanism that delays ovarian ageing and extends reproductive lifespan in mice.", "background": "Ovarian ageing progressively reduces fertility, disrupts endocrine function and contributes to later-life disease risk. This decline involves losses in follicle quantity and quality as well as deterioration of the ovarian tissue environment. Although lifestyle and systemic metabolic factors have been associated with reproductive ageing, the causal mechanisms connecting them to ovarian function remain poorly understood. No approved treatment currently delays ovarian ageing or reliably extends reproductive lifespan.", "question": "Through what molecular mechanism does physical activity delay ovarian ageing and extend reproductive lifespan?", "subject": "Physical activity and ovarian ageing", "finding": "Physical activity delays ovarian ageing in mice partly by increasing ovarian adiponectin signaling. Its protective effects were attenuated in adiponectin-deficient mice, while pharmacological activation of adiponectin receptors with AdipoRon delayed ovarian ageing and extended reproductive lifespan.", "key_points": [ "Physical activity delays ovarian ageing in mice", "Physical activity increases ovarian adiponectin levels", "Adiponectin deficiency attenuates the protective effect", "AdipoRon delays ovarian ageing", "AdipoRon extends reproductive lifespan" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Exercise delays ovarian ageing by clearing senescent and pro-inflammatory cells from the ovarian stroma, lowering local SASP (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF-α, MMPs) and preventing the collagen cross-linking and stromal fibrosis that mechanically restrict follicle growth. Mechanism: Reduced visceral adipose inflammation plus exercise-enhanced NK/macrophage surveillance and autophagy lower ovarian p16/p21-positive stromal cells; decreased IL-6/NF-κB and MMP activity reduce LOX-mediated collagen cross-linking and tissue stiffness, restoring the compliant niche needed for follicle expansion and ovulation, and reducing multinucleated macrophage giant cells. Prediction: Exercised aged ovaries show fewer p16INK4a/p21 cells, lower hydroxyproline and reduced stiffness by atomic force microscopy or second-harmonic imaging, with more growing follicles. Senolytics (dasatinib+quercetin) in sedentary animals reproduce the phenotype, and the exercise benefit is largely lost in mice already senescence-depleted or lacking Il6 — indicating the stromal-niche route rather than a direct oocyte effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Exercise acts through a muscle-derived endocrine signal — notably irisin (FNDC5 cleavage product) and/or apelin — that binds ovarian receptors and activates AMPK–PGC-1α in granulosa cells, sustaining mitochondrial biogenesis and steroidogenic competence with age. Mechanism: Contraction induces FNDC5/irisin and apelin release; these act on granulosa and theca cells to raise AMPK phosphorylation, PGC-1α/TFAM-driven mitochondrial biogenesis and mitophagy turnover, maintaining ATP for oocyte maturation and preserving aromatase/CYP19A1 expression, thus slowing the rise in FSH and the decline in AMH. Prediction: Serum irisin after training correlates with preserved AMH and antral follicle count; direct irisin infusion in sedentary aged mice partially reproduces exercise benefits, while Fndc5 knockout or an irisin-neutralising antibody during training blocks the ovarian (but not the muscular) adaptation. Granulosa AMPK-dominant-negative abolishes the effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "Exercise preserves oocyte quality via the gut-microbiome–bile-acid–short-chain-fatty-acid axis: training reshapes the microbiota, raising butyrate and secondary bile acids that act through GPR43/GPR109A and TGR5/FXR to improve oocyte epigenetic maintenance and reduce ovarian oxidative damage. Mechanism: Exercise increases SCFA-producing taxa; butyrate inhibits ovarian HDACs and strengthens gut barrier integrity, lowering LPS translocation and TLR4-driven ovarian inflammation, while TGR5-mediated signalling raises GLP-1 and improves systemic insulin sensitivity. Combined, these maintain oocyte DNA methylation/imprinting fidelity and reduce 8-oxo-dG lesions. Prediction: Faecal transfer from exercised aged donors to sedentary germ-free or antibiotic-treated aged recipients improves ovarian reserve and oocyte maturation rates; germ-free or antibiotic-depleted mice gain no ovarian benefit from running despite muscle adaptation, and oral butyrate partly substitutes for exercise — distinguishing this axis from myokine or direct metabolic mechanisms.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Exercise delays ovarian ageing by restoring NAD+ availability in oocytes and granulosa cells, reactivating SIRT1/SIRT3-dependent deacetylation of mitochondrial and chromatin targets. Skeletal-muscle-driven NAMPT induction and reduced CD38 activity raise ovarian NAD+, protecting oocyte meiotic spindle integrity and follicular reserve. Mechanism: Contracting muscle secretes extracellular NAMPT (eNAMPT) and raises systemic NMN flux; ovarian NAD+ rises, activating SIRT3 (SOD2, IDH2 deacetylation) and SIRT1 (FOXO3, PGC-1α), lowering oocyte ROS, preserving spindle assembly checkpoint fidelity and reducing aneuploidy, while FOXO3 signalling restrains excessive primordial follicle activation. Prediction: In aged mice, voluntary wheel running raises ovarian NAD+/NADH and reduces acetyl-SOD2 and acetyl-IDH2; oocyte aneuploidy and follicle loss are reduced. Granulosa-specific Nampt or Sirt3 knockout abolishes the exercise benefit, whereas NMN supplementation reproduces it without exercise — distinguishing NAD+ causality from generic fitness or adiposity effects.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Exercise extends reproductive lifespan primarily by lowering ovarian lipotoxicity: it reduces follicular-fluid saturated free fatty acids and ceramide, relieving endoplasmic reticulum stress and the PERK–CHOP arm of the unfolded protein response in granulosa cells. This prevents granulosa apoptosis-driven follicular atresia. Mechanism: Muscle lipid uptake and improved adipose insulin sensitivity lower circulating palmitate/ceramide reaching the follicle; reduced ceramide and saturated lipid flux decrease ER membrane stress, lowering PERK-eIF2α-CHOP and IRE1α signalling, which otherwise triggers granulosa apoptosis, loss of oocyte–granulosa gap-junction coupling and poor oocyte quality. Prediction: Exercise in diet-induced-obese or aged females normalises follicular-fluid C16:0 ceramide and granulosa CHOP/BiP levels with preserved antral follicle counts; granulosa-specific CHOP deletion or a ceramide-synthase inhibitor reproduces the protection in sedentary animals, and intralipid/palmitate infusion during exercise abolishes it — separating lipid signalling from NAD+ or inflammatory routes.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42605193", "pmid": "42605193", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70671", "title": "An ANGPTL8-AKT2-mTOR Axis Drives Adipose Senescence and Aging-Related Functional Decline.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports an experimentally validated causal mechanism that promotes cellular senescence, systemic functional decline, and reduced lifespan.", "background": "Cellular senescence increases with age and can disrupt tissue function through persistent changes in cell state and signaling. Metabolic dysfunction and chronic inflammation are closely associated with this process and with broader age-related deterioration. Circulating factors can coordinate physiological changes across organs, but it remains unclear which factors actively cause senescence rather than merely correlate with ageing. Identifying the responsible signals and their intracellular mechanisms could reveal targets for extending healthspan.", "question": "Which circulating regulator causally promotes cellular senescence and organismal ageing, and through what intracellular signaling mechanism does it act?", "subject": "Endocrine control of senescence", "finding": "ANGPTL8 directly interacts with AKT2 and activates the AKT–mTOR–S6K pathway, thereby driving cell-autonomous adipocyte senescence. Deleting Angptl8 in mice reduces adipose senescence, delays age-related functional decline, and extends lifespan, while genetic or pharmacological pathway inhibition abolishes ANGPTL8-induced senescence.", "key_points": [ "ANGPTL8 is a causal pro-senescent regulator", "ANGPTL8 directly interacts with AKT2", "AKT–mTOR–S6K activation drives adipocyte senescence", "Angptl8 deletion improves function and extends mouse lifespan", "Pathway inhibition blocks the pro-senescent effect" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Circulating taurine decline is a causal driver of senescence and organismal ageing. Taurine concentration falls with age across mice, monkeys and humans, and restoring it suppresses senescent-cell accumulation and extends healthspan; depleting it accelerates both. Mechanism: Taurine is a conjugating/osmolyte substrate required for mitochondrial respiratory efficiency and bile-acid–FXR signaling. Its loss raises mitochondrial superoxide and mtDNA stress, which activates cGAS–STING and NF-κB-driven SASP; taurine supplementation restores ETC coupling, lowers cytosolic mtDNA leakage, and quiets STING-dependent inflammatory transcription. Prediction: Taurine supplementation reduces p16/p21+ cells and SASP in aged tissue, but this protection is abolished in Sting1-/- or cGAS-/- mice, while taurine transporter (Slc6a6) knockout animals show premature senescence rescued by direct STING inhibition rather than by taurine.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "An age-rising circulating purine/nucleotide-derived signal — extracellular ATP-derived adenosine plus eATP acting on P2X7 — causally propagates senescence between cells and organs, converting local damage into systemic ageing. Mechanism: Senescent cells release ATP and nicotinamide-pathway intermediates; CD38/CD73-driven conversion yields adenosine and NAD+ depletion. eATP–P2X7 opens a Ca2+/K+ efflux route that assembles NLRP3, giving IL-1β/IL-18 and paracrine senescence, while adenosine–A2A raises cAMP and PKA, reinforcing p53/p21 and inhibiting sirtuin-dependent repair through low NAD+. Prediction: P2rx7-/- or Nlrp3-/- mice resist senescence spread after transplantation of senescent cells, and pharmacological CD38 inhibition restores tissue NAD+ and reduces p16 burden only when A2A signaling is simultaneously present — indicating a purinergic, not generic inflammatory, axis.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Age-elevated circulating leukaemia inhibitory factor receptor ligands acting through gp130 — chiefly IL-6 and LIF — causally impose senescence on distant tissues via sustained JAK1–STAT3 signaling, making gp130 the convergent receptor node for inflammaging. Mechanism: Chronic low-grade gp130 ligand exposure keeps STAT3 phosphorylated, driving C/EBPβ and IL-6 feed-forward transcription, mitochondrial ROS via STAT3 import, and p21 induction independent of DNA damage. STAT3 also represses lamin B1, producing chromatin changes that lock the SASP in place. Prediction: Heterochronic plasma transfer from old to young mice induces senescence markers, and this transfer effect is lost in mice with tissue-specific gp130 (Il6st) deletion or STAT3 inhibition, whereas IL-1R or TNFR blockade only partially attenuates it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Circulating oxidized/ceramide-enriched lipoprotein cargo — specifically C16:0 ceramide delivered on LDL and extracellular vesicles — is a causal circulating inducer of endothelial and stem-cell senescence and shortens healthspan. Mechanism: Ceramide uptake activates protein phosphatase 2A and inhibits Akt/eNOS while promoting PKCζ-dependent inhibition of insulin signaling; it simultaneously forms mitochondrial ceramide channels that increase ROS, triggering ATM–p53–p21 and NF-κB SASP. Ceramide synthase 2/5 (CerS2/5) activity in liver and vessel wall sets the circulating pool. Prediction: Liver-specific CerS2 knockdown lowers plasma C16:0 ceramide and reduces vascular p16+ cells and improves healthspan in aged mice; conversely infusing C16:0-loaded LDL into young mice induces senescence, an effect blocked by PP2A inhibition or mitochondria-targeted antioxidant but not by LDL-cholesterol lowering alone.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Circulating GDF15 is not merely a biomarker but a causal pro-ageing signal in late life: chronically elevated GDF15 acting on brainstem GFRAL and on peripheral tissues drives sarcopenia, anorexia of ageing and senescence-associated tissue decline. Mechanism: GDF15–GFRAL–RET activation raises sympathetic and HPA output and shifts systemic substrate use toward catabolism; downstream, cAMP/PKA and ERK signaling plus glucocorticoid elevation suppress autophagy (ULK1 inhibition) in muscle and stem cells, allowing damaged mitochondria to persist and p38MAPK–p16 senescence to establish. Prediction: Chronic low-dose GDF15 in young mice reproduces aged phenotypes (muscle p16+ cells, SASP, fat loss), and both the GDF15 effect and the benefit of GDF15 neutralization in old mice disappear in Gfral-/- animals or under adrenalectomy/glucocorticoid clamp.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42608398", "pmid": "42608398", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-76162-7", "title": "Corisin induces proteostasis stress to drive epithelial injury and pulmonary fibrosis.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper establishes a specific, experimentally validated mechanism connecting a microbial factor to cellular senescence, tissue injury, and an age-associated fibrotic disease.", "background": "Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive, age-associated disorder characterized by recurring tissue injury and excessive fibrotic remodeling. Abnormal cell-fate programs, including apoptosis, senescence, and phenotypic transitions, are thought to contribute to disease progression. Changes in the lung microbiota have also been associated with disease severity, but association alone has not established a direct pathogenic mechanism. It remained unclear whether a microbiota-derived product could independently initiate the cellular dysfunction and progressive fibrosis observed in this disease.", "question": "Can a microbiota-derived factor directly cause the cellular dysfunction and progressive tissue remodeling characteristic of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and if so, through what mechanism?", "subject": "Microbial induction of fibrosis", "finding": "The microbiota-derived peptide corisin directly disrupts epithelial proteostasis by targeting and enhancing the ubiquitin-proteasome system, thereby inducing apoptosis, cellular senescence, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and fibrotic remodeling. Depleting native corisin from patient bronchoalveolar lavage fluid removes its proapoptotic activity, while constitutive corisin expression in mice causes spontaneous progressive pulmonary fibrosis and worsens bleomycin-induced injury and mortality.", "key_points": [ "Corisin is present and functionally active in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.", "Corisin enters epithelial cells, localizes to mitochondria, and induces apoptosis, senescence, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition.", "Corisin enhances proteasome activity and disrupts epithelial proteostasis.", "Removing corisin abolishes the proapoptotic activity of patient lavage fluid.", "Native corisin expression is sufficient to cause progressive pulmonary fibrosis in mice." ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "A specific bacterial metabolite that is a mitochondrial poison — for example a quorum-sensing molecule (Pseudomonas 2-heptyl-3-hydroxy-4-quinolone/HQNO, or phenazines) or an excess of a short-chain/branched fatty acid — causes IPF by inducing AT2 mitochondrial dysfunction and a metabolic shift that locks fibroblasts into glycolytic, collagen-producing myofibroblasts. Mechanism: The metabolite inhibits respiratory complex I/III in AT2 cells, raising mitochondrial ROS, impairing mitophagy (PINK1 loss, a documented IPF feature) and triggering integrated stress response/ATF4. Dysfunctional AT2 cells release TGF-β and mtDNA; in fibroblasts the same metabolite stabilizes HIF-1α and increases glutamine/glycolytic flux required for proline and collagen synthesis. Prediction: The metabolite recapitulates the IPF AT2 transcriptomic/metabolomic signature (ISR up, PINK1 down, glycolysis up) in human alveolar organoids at concentrations measured in IPF BAL; mitochondria-targeted antioxidant (MitoQ), PINK1 overexpression, or complex-I-independent metabolic rescue abolishes fibrosis in vivo, while a structurally related non-inhibitory analogue does not. Germ-free or antibiotic-treated mice are protected unless the pure metabolite is supplied.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "The pathogenic unit is not a free molecule but bacterial outer-membrane/extracellular vesicles from the dysbiotic IPF lung microbiota, which carry a combination of LPS, nucleic acids and small RNAs deep into the distal alveolus and establish a self-sustaining injury–dysbiosis–fibrosis feedback loop. Mechanism: Vesicles cross the mucus and surfactant layer, are internalized by AT2 cells and macrophages, and deliver cargo to cytosolic sensors (caspase-11/NLRP3, cGAS-STING, TLR7/8) plus bacterial small RNAs that silence host repair transcripts. Resulting IL-1β/IL-17/TGF-β signaling causes AT2 apoptosis and senescence and fibroblast activation; the fibrotic, mucus-rich, hypoxic niche in turn favors the same taxa, closing the loop and explaining progression without ongoing external insult. Prediction: Vesicles purified from IPF BAL (but not from healthy BAL, and not vesicle-depleted IPF BAL supernatant) induce fibrosis when instilled into naive mice; cargo-specific loss of function (RNase treatment, LPS-free mutant donor strains, or caspase-11/STING-null recipients) separates the active component, and interrupting the loop (targeted decolonization after fibrosis onset) halts progression — an outcome a single-exposure toxin model would not predict.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "A microbiota-derived genotoxin (a colibactin-like or DNase-like secreted product, or bacterial extracellular vesicle cargo) directly induces an irreversible, profibrotic senescence program in alveolar epithelium and lung fibroblasts, and this senescent secretome — not the bacterium — is the proximate cause of progressive remodeling. Mechanism: The factor causes DNA interstrand crosslinks/double-strand breaks and mitochondrial DNA release, activating persistent ATM–p53–p21 and cGAS–STING signaling. Cells arrest with a type-I-interferon-flavored SASP (TGF-β1, IL-6, CXCL8, PAI-1, MMPs) that recruits and activates fibroblasts. Because senescent AT2 cells cannot proliferate, the alveolar unit is permanently repaired by matrix. Prediction: Exposure produces γH2AX, p16/p21 and SA-β-gal in AT2 cells before any collagen deposition, with a dose–response; senolytic clearance (dasatinib+quercetin or INK-ATTAC/p16-directed ablation) or STING knockout prevents fibrosis after exposure, whereas a biosynthesis-deficient (clbQ-type) mutant strain colonizes equally but causes neither senescence nor fibrosis. Temporal order (senescence precedes fibroblast activation) distinguishes this from a direct fibroblast-agonist model.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "A bacterial amyloid-forming or pore-forming protein secreted by a lung commensal expanded in IPF airways (e.g. Streptococcus/Staphylococcus-derived cytolysins or Prevotella-derived amyloid peptides) is sufficient, by itself, to drive alveolar type 2 (AT2) epithelial cell death and progressive fibrosis in otherwise healthy lungs. Repeated instillation of the purified factor into naive mice reproduces the AT2 depletion, fibroblast activation and progressive, non-resolving fibrosis of IPF, without any infection. Mechanism: The factor permeabilizes the AT2 plasma membrane and endolysosomal compartment, triggering mitochondrial outer-membrane permeabilization and intrinsic apoptosis plus NLRP3/gasdermin-dependent death. Loss of AT2 progenitors removes the normal re-epithelialization signal, so repeated micro-injury is resolved by fibroblast/myofibroblast scarring rather than epithelial regeneration, creating a self-amplifying injury–fibrosis loop. Prediction: Purified, endotoxin-free factor (but not its catalytically dead / amyloid-incompetent point mutant, nor heat-denatured protein, nor the same dose of LPS) causes dose-dependent AT2 apoptosis in vitro and progressive collagen accumulation in vivo; AT2-specific deletion of the death effector (BAX/BAK or GSDMD) or an antibody that neutralizes the factor blocks fibrosis despite identical bacterial colonization.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "A microbiota-derived factor causes IPF by acting as a direct, sustained agonist of epithelial plasticity: it drives AT2-to-AT1 transitional-state arrest and epithelial-to-mesenchymal-like reprogramming (KRT5/KRT17 basaloid cells) rather than by killing cells. Mechanism: The factor engages a pattern-recognition or protease-activated receptor (TLR2/4, PAR-1/2 via a bacterial protease) on AT2 cells, activating NF-κB together with TGF-β/SMAD3 and ZEB1/SNAI1, while suppressing Wnt-dependent AT2 self-renewal and NKX2-1. The resulting aberrant basaloid intermediate secretes TGF-β, CTHRC1-inducing cues and matrix, so the epithelium itself becomes the fibrogenic driver. Prediction: In human iPSC-derived alveolar organoids the factor converts SFTPC+ AT2 cells into KRT17+/COL1A1+ basaloid cells without appreciable cell death, and lineage tracing in mice shows fibroblast-independent appearance of these cells before collagen deposition; epithelial-specific deletion of the receptor (or PAR cleavage-site mutation) prevents both the phenotype and fibrosis, while blocking apoptosis or senescence does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42627902", "pmid": "42627902", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeb1346", "title": "Geneformer-guided multiomics integration identifies Pbx1 as a network hub of hematopoietic stem cell aging.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-21", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports an experimentally supported regulatory mechanism underlying age-associated deterioration in blood-cell production.", "background": "Ageing alters blood-cell production, commonly shifting lineage output and reducing regenerative balance. These changes can contribute to anemia, impaired immunity, and abnormal clotting in older organisms. Age-related transcriptional and epigenetic remodeling has been implicated, but the regulators that causally connect altered gene programs to lineage imbalance remain incompletely understood. Identifying such regulators could reveal ways to restore healthier blood production during ageing.", "question": "Which regulatory mechanism drives the age-associated shift away from erythroid differentiation and toward platelet-producing lineage programs?", "subject": "Age-related blood lineage imbalance", "finding": "Pbx1 is a regulatory hub that drives age-related transcriptional and differentiation changes in hematopoietic stem cells. It suppresses erythroid differentiation by repressing Gata1 expression, thereby contributing to the lineage imbalance characteristic of HSC ageing.", "key_points": [ "Pbx1 is a key regulator of HSC ageing", "Pbx1 represses Gata1 expression", "Pbx1 suppresses erythroid differentiation", "The mechanism contributes to age-related lineage imbalance" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "A single master regulator whose expression rises with age — a megakaryocyte-promoting transcription factor/RNA-binding regulator (e.g. FLI1, or an age-induced miRNA such as miR-125a/b acting on erythroid targets) — is the causal node connecting aged transcriptional remodeling to lineage imbalance. Mechanism: Age-elevated regulator directly activates megakaryocyte enhancer networks and post-transcriptionally destabilizes erythroid determinants (KLF1/GATA1 cofactors), so its dose alone sets the erythroid:platelet split. Prediction: Knockdown of the candidate regulator in aged HSPCs should normalize erythroid:platelet ratios without altering clonal composition, inflammation, or global methylation, while its forced overexpression at aged levels in young HSPCs should produce the aged phenotype — dose-dependent and sufficient, distinguishing it from the permissive mechanisms above.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "An age-dependent change in niche-derived instructive cues — declining erythropoietic support from macrophage erythroblastic islands and SCF/EPO-axis signalling, with relatively preserved or increased thrombopoietin/CXCL4 signalling — drives the lineage shift extrinsically. Mechanism: Reduced central-macrophage number/function and altered sinusoidal niche signalling lower the erythroid-permissive signal threshold; residual MPL/TPO signalling then dominates fate selection in bipotent progenitors, biasing toward megakaryopoiesis. Prediction: Transplanting young HSPCs into aged marrow should reproduce the platelet-biased, erythroid-poor output, and aged HSPCs in a young niche (or with macrophage/EPO-axis restoration) should regain normal erythroid output — the reciprocal-transplant result that cell-intrinsic clonal or epigenetic hypotheses predict will not occur.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Age-associated clonal expansion of intrinsically platelet-biased hematopoietic stem cell subsets, not reprogramming of individual balanced stem cells, drives the shift from erythroid to megakaryocytic output. The aged stem cell pool is numerically dominated by vWF+/CD41+ platelet-primed clones whose progeny preferentially bypass erythroid intermediates. Mechanism: Differential self-renewal advantage: platelet-biased HSC clones have higher retention under replicative and inflammatory stress, so their relative frequency rises with age while balanced and erythroid-biased clones are depleted, changing population-level lineage output without changing per-cell programs. Prediction: Single-cell barcode/clonal tracking of aged marrow should show that erythroid-to-platelet output shifts are explained by clone frequency redistribution, with individual aged platelet-biased clones producing output indistinguishable from young platelet-biased clones; transplanting equal numbers of sorted balanced clones from aged and young donors would yield similar erythroid:platelet ratios.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "Chronic low-grade inflammatory signalling (IL-1β/TNF–NF-κB) acting on aged progenitors is the proximate driver, redirecting megakaryocyte–erythroid bipotent progenitors toward megakaryocytic fate at the expense of erythroid commitment. Mechanism: NF-κB and downstream PU.1 activity antagonize GATA1-driven erythroid enhancers while permitting or enhancing megakaryocyte-specific GATA1/RUNX1/FLI1 programs, raising the PU.1:GATA1 ratio in bipotent cells and shifting the fate boundary. Prediction: Genetic or pharmacologic blockade of IL-1 receptor signalling in aged animals should restore erythroid:platelet output ratios and rescue erythroid gene programs (Klf1, Alas2, Slc4a1) in bipotent progenitors, whereas chronic IL-1β exposure in young animals should phenocopy the aged ratio.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of a specific epigenetic repressor of the megakaryocyte program — age-associated decline in polycomb (PRC2/EZH2) or DNMT3A-mediated silencing at megakaryocyte enhancers — causally de-represses platelet genes in erythroid-competent progenitors. Mechanism: With age, DNA hypomethylation and H3K27me3 erosion at megakaryocytic loci (Fli1, Itga2b, Pf4, Vwf) make them permissive, while erythroid enhancers accumulate repressive marks; the same progenitor therefore reads out a megakaryocytic rather than erythroid program. Prediction: ATAC/ChIP in matched young vs aged MEPs should localize the earliest change to loss of H3K27me3/5mC at megakaryocyte enhancers preceding transcriptional change, and conditional restoration of EZH2 (or DNMT3A) activity in aged progenitors should re-suppress platelet genes and recover erythroid differentiation — effects absent if the primary lesion were clonal or cytokine-driven.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42630044", "pmid": "42630044", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70687", "title": "Piezo1 Activation Rescues Anabolic Response to Mechanical Loading in Aged Bone via Connexin 43 Hemichannels.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-22", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific mechanism underlying the age-related loss of bone's anabolic response to mechanical loading and demonstrates its rescue in aged mice.", "background": "Mechanical loading normally stimulates bone formation and helps maintain skeletal strength. This anabolic response becomes weaker with age, contributing to cortical bone loss and osteoporosis risk. Bone cells detect physical forces and translate them into signals that regulate the balance between bone formation and resorption. The molecular defect responsible for diminished mechanosensitivity in aged bone, and whether it can be overcome, remained unclear.", "question": "What mechanism limits the anabolic response of aged bone to mechanical loading, and can targeted stimulation restore this response?", "subject": "Aged bone mechanosensitivity", "finding": "In aged mouse bone, activation of Piezo1 during mechanical loading promotes its membrane co-localization with connexin 43 and increases connexin 43 hemichannel activity through PI3K-Akt signaling. Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 release, suppresses sclerostin, promotes endosteal bone formation, inhibits resorption, and thereby restores the cortical anabolic response to loading.", "key_points": [ "Piezo1 activation must accompany mechanical loading to rescue aged bone", "Piezo1 interacts and co-localizes with connexin 43", "PI3K-Akt signaling activates connexin 43 hemichannels", "Hemichannel opening increases PGE2 and suppresses sclerostin", "The pathway increases cortical bone mass by favoring formation over resorption" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "The primary defect is not sensor abundance but mechanical decoupling: age-related accumulation of mineralized perilacunar matrix and shrinkage of the lacuno-canalicular space reduce the fluid shear stress delivered to osteocyte processes, so whole-bone strain no longer translates into cellular stimulus. Mechanism: Loss of osteocytic perilacunar remodeling (declining cathepsin K, MMP13, TRAP expression) hypermineralizes the pericellular space, stiffening the tether between matrix and cell membrane and damping fluid flow; the sensing machinery remains intact but is mechanically starved. Prediction: Aged bone shows normal or near-normal per-unit-shear responsiveness when osteocytes are stimulated directly (chemical channel agonism, or ex vivo flow on isolated cells), while in vivo loading fails; restoring perilacunar remodeling genetically or pharmacologically re-sensitizes loading, and canalicular dimensions measured by FIB-SEM predict the per-animal anabolic response better than PIEZO1 transcript level.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "Aged osteocytes lose mechanosensitivity because the stretch-activated cation channel PIEZO1 is downregulated in cortical bone, so load-induced calcium influx and downstream Wnt1/Wnt10b output collapse; pharmacological agonism of PIEZO1 (e.g. Yoda1) restores the anabolic response without mechanical loading. Mechanism: Reduced PIEZO1 expression/membrane availability in aged osteocytes lowers load-evoked Ca2+ transients, blunting NFAT/YAP-dependent induction of Wnt ligands and suppression of sclerostin, which shifts the formation/resorption balance toward resorption. Direct chemical gating of the residual channel pool bypasses the sensing deficit. Prediction: In aged mice, Yoda1 (or equivalent PIEZO1 agonist) increases cortical thickness and periosteal mineral apposition to a degree comparable with loading in young animals, and this effect is abolished in osteocyte-specific Piezo1 knockouts, whereas overcoming the deficit by increasing strain magnitude alone does not normalize Wnt1/Wnt10b induction.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Aged osteocytes are stuck in a ceiling of tonic sclerostin and high Dkk1 expression that cannot be relieved by load, making the Wnt arm refractory rather than the sensing arm defective. Mechanism: Chronic inflammatory and glucocorticoid signaling in aged marrow sustains SOST transcription via an altered enhancer/chromatin state at the ECR5 element, so load-induced transcriptional repression of SOST is epigenetically blocked; downstream β-catenin never rises enough to drive osteoblast recruitment. Prediction: Load in aged mice produces normal immediate-early Ca2+ and ERK responses but fails to reduce SOST mRNA; ATAC-seq shows closed/occluded ECR5 in aged osteocytes; sclerostin-neutralizing antibody or osteocyte Sost deletion fully restores the load-induced formation response, while PIEZO1 agonism alone gives only a partial effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Loading anabolism in aged bone fails at the effector stage because the osteoprogenitor pool that must execute the signal is depleted and lineage-biased toward adipogenesis, so a normal mechanical signal finds no responsive cells; co-delivering a mechanical stimulus with progenitor mobilization restores formation. Mechanism: Age-related decline in periosteal/endosteal Prrx1+ and Lepr+ skeletal stem cells plus PPARγ-biased differentiation means load-induced Wnt and IGF-1 signals cannot be converted into matrix-depositing osteoblasts; the limiting term is effector supply, not signal generation. Prediction: Aged loaded bones show intact osteocyte signalling (normal Sost suppression, Wnt1 induction) yet unchanged mineral apposition rate and no increase in Osterix+ surface cells; combining loading with progenitor expansion (intermittent PTH, anti-PPARγ, or transplanted skeletal stem cells) restores the anabolic response, whereas amplifying the mechanical or channel-level stimulus alone does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "Senescent osteocytes act as dominant-negative mechanical units: a small fraction of p16/p21-positive senescent osteocytes secretes SASP factors that paracrine-suppress mechanoresponsive gene programs in neighbouring healthy osteocytes, so the tissue-level anabolic response falls far more than the senescent cell fraction would predict. Mechanism: SASP IL-6/TNF/CCL-driven NF-κB activation in bystander osteocytes raises RANKL and SOST and desensitizes the Ca2+/YAP axis; gap-junction and dendrite loss around senescent cells further fragments the mechanosensory network. Prediction: Senolytic treatment (dasatinib+quercetin or p16-INK-ATTAC clearance) before loading restores load-induced periosteal apposition in aged mice, and the restoration tracks with normalized mechanoresponsive gene induction in non-senescent osteocytes; conditioned medium from senescent osteocytes blunts flow-induced responses in young osteocytes in vitro.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42639736", "pmid": "42639736", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70688", "title": "DHCR24 Alleviates DNA Damage in Senescent Vascular Endothelial Cells via ENKUR/Ca2+ Signaling.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-25", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally establishes a causal molecular pathway linking organelle dysfunction, DNA damage responses, and cellular senescence.", "background": "Persistent DNA damage responses contribute to cellular senescence and age-related loss of tissue function. Disturbances in intracellular homeostasis can promote genomic stress through several mechanisms, including metabolic dysfunction and impaired cell-cycle control. Communication between organelles is increasingly recognized as an important regulator of stress responses during ageing. However, the causal mechanisms connecting disrupted cellular homeostasis to DNA damage in senescent cells remain incompletely understood.", "question": "What molecular mechanism links disrupted intracellular homeostasis to DNA damage and senescence?", "subject": "Senescence-associated DNA damage", "finding": "Loss of DHCR24 increases ENKUR expression, causing calcium overload, endoplasmic-reticulum stress, and mitochondrial dysfunction that activate the ATM-mediated DNA damage response and promote endothelial-cell senescence. ENKUR knockdown suppresses these effects, while DHCR24 overexpression lowers ENKUR and mitigates calcium overload, establishing a causal DHCR24-ENKUR-Ca2+ signaling axis.", "key_points": [ "DHCR24 deficiency activates ATM-mediated DNA damage responses", "DHCR24 loss upregulates ENKUR and causes calcium overload", "Calcium dysregulation drives ER stress and mitochondrial dysfunction", "ENKUR knockdown rescues organelle dysfunction and DNA damage signaling", "DHCR24 restoration reduces ENKUR and calcium overload" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Lysosomal membrane permeabilization during ageing releases cathepsins and acidic contents into the cytosol, and a fraction of active cathepsin B/L reaches the nucleus where it cleaves chromatin-associated proteins, generating DNA breaks that drive a persistent DNA damage response and senescence. Thus failing lysosomal containment, not only reduced autophagic flux, is a direct genotoxic event. Mechanism: Age-associated lipofuscin accumulation, oxidized lipids and iron-catalysed Fenton chemistry destabilize the lysosomal membrane; partial permeabilization lets mature cathepsins escape. Cytosolic cathepsins degrade a subset of nucleoporins and histone H3 tails and activate caspase-independent nuclease activity (e.g. via AIF/EndoG-type pathways and degradation of the DNase inhibitor SET), producing single- and double-strand breaks. Because lysosomes are also required to clear the resulting damaged proteins, a feed-forward loop locks in γH2AX foci at telomeric and rDNA regions, triggering p21-dependent arrest. Prediction: In cells with mild, sublethal lysosomal permeabilization (LLOMe low-dose or iron loading), 53BP1/γH2AX foci and senescence markers appear within hours and are strongly suppressed by cathepsin B/L inhibition (CA-074Me + E-64d) or by nuclear-excluded cathepsin mutants, while global autophagic flux restoration alone (TFEB overexpression after damage) fails to prevent foci. Critically, chromatin immunoprecipitation should show cathepsin B at damaged loci and truncated H3 (H3 clipping) preceding break formation — a signature absent in the ROS-only or mitochondrial-DNA-release models.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 1 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Loss of ER–mitochondria calcium coupling at MAMs causes chronic, low-amplitude mitochondrial calcium overload that inhibits the nucleotide-biosynthetic enzyme DHODH and depletes the dNTP pool, so replication forks stall and collapse into DNA double-strand breaks that enforce senescence. Senescence is therefore a nucleotide-supply failure transmitted from organelle contact sites. Mechanism: Age-related remodelling of MAM tethers (MFN2/VAPB–PTPIP51/IP3R–GRP75–VDAC1) raises basal matrix Ca2+, which depolarizes the inner membrane and oxidizes the ubiquinone pool. DHODH, the only mitochondrially embedded step of de novo pyrimidine synthesis, requires oxidized CoQ as electron acceptor; its inhibition lowers dCTP/dTTP. Reduced dNTPs slow replication fork progression, increase ssDNA gaps and fork reversal, and produce MRE11/MUS81-dependent breaks in S phase, activating ATR→ATM→p53/p21 and a stable arrest with cGAS-positive cytoplasmic chromatin fragments. Prediction: Senescence induced by MAM disruption (MFN2 knockdown or a MAM-spacer construct) should show reduced intracellular dTTP/dCTP by LC-MS, shortened replication-track lengths by DNA combing, and should be rescued by exogenous nucleosides or uridine supplementation without restoring calcium flux — whereas antioxidants (MitoQ) rescue redox markers but not fork speed. Blocking mitochondrial Ca2+ uptake (MCU knockout) should likewise rescue, placing Ca2+ upstream of dNTP loss.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Disrupted intracellular pH and ion homeostasis — specifically cytosolic acidification from failing V-ATPase and Na+/H+ exchange — inactivates the nuclear zinc-dependent repair machinery by promoting zinc release from PARP1 and the NHEJ nuclease complex, so physiological DNA lesions become persistent damage and drive senescence without any increase in lesion formation rate. Mechanism: Reduced V-ATPase assembly and NHE1 activity in aged cells lower cytosolic pH by 0.2–0.4 units, which protonates cysteine-histidine zinc-coordinating sites and shifts labile Zn2+ from zinc-finger proteins to metallothionein and mitochondria. PARP1's two zinc fingers lose damage-sensing capacity, Artemis/SNM1 and the PRPF/ZRANB3 fingers misfold, and repair-factor recruitment kinetics slow several-fold. Lesions that would normally resolve in minutes persist for hours, crossing the threshold for sustained ATM signalling and p53 stabilization, which the cell interprets as irreparable damage and converts to senescence. Prediction: Clamping cytosolic pH downward (nigericin/acid-loading or NHE1 knockdown) at a level that does not change basal 8-oxo-dG or comet-assay lesion induction should nonetheless slow γH2AX focus resolution after a calibrated laser or ionizing-radiation dose, with reduced PARP1 chromatin retention measured by live imaging; cell-permeable zinc supplementation (zinc pyrithione, low dose) should restore repair kinetics and prevent senescence despite persistent acidification. Models driven by increased lesion formation would instead show elevated baseline lesions and no zinc rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 1 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Failure of nuclear envelope and nucleocytoplasmic transport homeostasis — driven by Ran gradient collapse from declining mitochondrial ATP/GTP supply — strands repair factors in the cytoplasm and lets cytoplasmic nucleases enter the nucleus, so DNA damage accumulates as a transport defect rather than a signalling defect. Mechanism: Reduced oxidative phosphorylation lowers the GTP/GDP ratio needed to maintain the RanGTP gradient; importin-dependent nuclear import of large NLS cargoes (BRCA1, 53BP1, RAD51, DNA ligase IV) becomes rate-limiting, while passive permeability rises as nucleoporins (NUP93, NUP153, ELYS) are lost and oxidized. Repair-factor nuclear concentration falls below the threshold for homologous recombination, pushing lesions toward error-prone pathways, and cytoplasmic DNases and cathepsins diffuse inward. Persistent breaks plus nuclear-envelope blebbing release chromatin fragments that activate cGAS–STING and the SASP. Prediction: In aged or mitochondrially inhibited cells, nuclear-to-cytoplasmic ratios of RAD51/BRCA1 should fall proportionally with the measured RanGTP gradient (FRET sensor) before DNA damage rises, and HR efficiency (DR-GFP) should drop while NHEJ is preserved. Restoring nucleotide/energy charge or tethering RAD51 to the nucleus with a strong constitutive NLS or nuclear-anchored fusion should rescue HR and prevent senescence without improving mitochondrial function — a rescue that neither the dNTP-depletion nor the SAM-depletion hypothesis predicts.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 1 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Chronic ER stress reroutes the integrated stress response to deplete nuclear S-adenosylmethionine via upregulated phosphatidylethanolamine N-methyltransferase and transsulfuration flux, causing hypomethylation and derepression of pericentromeric and LINE-1 repeats; the resulting R-loops and retroelement cDNA generate DNA damage and senescence. Proteostatic stress is thus epigenetically genotoxic through one-carbon metabolism. Mechanism: Unfolded-protein accumulation drives ATF4/XBP1-dependent expansion of ER membrane synthesis, which consumes SAM for phosphatidylcholine production, while ATF4 also diverts homocysteine into glutathione synthesis, lowering methionine recycling. Falling SAM/SAH ratio reduces DNMT1 and SUV39H1 product deposition at heterochromatin, de-silencing LINE-1 and satellite transcription. Satellite R-loops collide with replication forks and L1 ORF2p endonuclease nicks genomic DNA; L1 cDNA additionally engages cGAS–STING, converting damage into the inflammatory SASP. Prediction: Prolonged tunicamycin or ATF4 overexpression should lower the SAM/SAH ratio and raise LINE-1/satellite-II transcripts before γH2AX accumulates; supplementing SAM or methionine, or knocking down PEMT, should prevent both repeat derepression and DNA damage without relieving ER stress markers (BiP, CHOP). Reverse transcriptase inhibition (lamivudine) or RNase H1 overexpression should blunt break formation specifically in this model but not in the lysosomal or Ca2+ models, discriminating the mechanisms.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42642518", "pmid": "42642518", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01180-5", "title": "Sex-specific aging clocks from a large-scale human phenome reveal distinct aging transitions and circulating signatures.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-25", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study goes beyond cohort associations by experimentally testing age-associated circulating factors in human cells and using a reversible mouse model to support their causal contribution to senescence-related ageing phenotypes.", "background": "Biological ageing progresses at different rates among individuals and is associated with broad changes in physiology and chronic-disease risk. Women and men can follow different ageing trajectories, particularly during midlife, but the biological basis and functional significance of these differences remain incompletely understood. Large clinical datasets can identify circulating features that change with age, although association alone cannot establish whether such features actively promote ageing. Experimental validation is therefore needed to distinguish causal contributors from passive biomarkers.", "question": "Which circulating factors that accumulate with age actively induce ageing-related cellular phenotypes, and is their resulting biological burden reversible?", "subject": "Circulating drivers of ageing", "finding": "Age-associated accumulation of metabolic factors, including low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, glucose and uric acid, and tumor markers, including carcinoembryonic antigen and human epididymis protein 4, induced senescence-related phenotypes in human endothelial cells. A high-fat-diet mouse model followed by dietary reversal further showed that ageing associated with metabolic burden is modifiable.", "key_points": [ "Specific metabolic and tumor markers accumulate with age", "The identified circulating factors induce senescence-related phenotypes", "Causality was tested in human endothelial cells", "Dietary reversal in mice supports modifiability of metabolic burden-induced ageing", "Ageing trajectories differ by sex during midlife" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Circulating cell-free mitochondrial DNA, which rises with age and is higher in men at midlife, is a causal pro-ageing factor that converts transient tissue damage into sustained systemic inflammaging. It acts as a DAMP on endosomal TLR9 and cytosolic cGAS–STING in monocytes and endothelium. Enzymatic clearance of cf-mtDNA should reverse the inflammatory and senescent burden it imposes. Mechanism: Hypomethylated, oxidised mtDNA fragments released by stressed cells are taken up by phagocytes and endothelial cells, engaging TLR9 → MyD88 → NF-κB and cGAS → 2'3'-cGAMP → STING → TBK1/IRF3, yielding type-I interferon and IL-1β/IL-6; chronic interferon tone enforces p16 expression and impairs stem-cell function. Prediction: Sustained administration of recombinant DNase I (or a cGAS/STING inhibitor) to old animals lowers plasma cf-mtDNA, interferon-stimulated gene scores and p16 burden with recovered physical function, while injecting purified old-plasma-derived mtDNA — but not nuclear DNA fragments or mtDNA-depleted plasma — into young STING-competent animals recapitulates the phenotype and fails in Sting1−/− animals.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "The midlife rise in circulating FSH is a causal driver of ageing phenotypes in women, acting directly on extragonadal FSH receptors rather than merely marking oestrogen loss. Chronic FSH elevation induces visceral adipocyte hypertrophy, osteoclast activation, and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype in bone marrow and adipose stroma. Blocking the FSH–FSHR interaction should reverse the accrued burden even when gonadal steroids are held constant. Mechanism: FSHβ binds FSHR on adipocytes, osteoclasts, hepatocytes and neurons, raising Gs/cAMP–PKA and Gi-coupled signalling; this drives lipogenesis, RANKL-independent osteoclastogenesis, and NF-κB-dependent IL-6/IL-8 secretion, which propagates paracrine senescence and low-grade inflammation independent of oestradiol. Prediction: In ovariectomised or peri-menopausal models with oestradiol clamped by fixed-dose replacement, an FSHβ-neutralising antibody (or FSHR antagonist) reduces visceral fat, p16/p21 burden and circulating IL-6 relative to isotype control, while an equivalently oestradiol-clamped group given exogenous FSH reproduces the phenotype — dissociating FSH from steroid withdrawal, which the 'oestrogen-deficiency-only' alternative cannot explain.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Age-accumulating complement and immunoglobulin-associated plasma proteins — chiefly C1q together with β2-microglobulin — actively suppress regenerative capacity in muscle and brain. Their burden is mechanically removable: therapeutic plasma exchange or dilution should restore regeneration faster than any change in the cells' intrinsic state could explain. Mechanism: C1q binds Frizzled receptors and potentiates Wnt/β-catenin signalling in aged satellite cells and promotes synaptic tagging for microglial pruning; β2-microglobulin acts through an MHC-I/TAP-dependent route to impair neurogenesis and cognition. Together they shift progenitors from self-renewal to fibrogenic or quiescent fates. Prediction: Neutral-albumin plasma exchange in old animals improves muscle regeneration and hippocampal neurogenesis within days, and the benefit is abolished if purified C1q plus β2-microglobulin are re-added to old-plasma concentrations after exchange; C1qa−/− old animals show attenuated benefit from exchange, distinguishing 'removal of inhibitors' from 'dilution-induced hormetic repair'.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "Age-accumulating circulating activin A (with falling follistatin) is an active inducer of cellular senescence and muscle atrophy, not a passive senescence marker. Activin A from senescent stromal cells and macrophages acts on ALK4/ACVR2-SMAD2/3 in muscle, bone and endothelium to impose a transmissible pro-ageing programme. Neutralising activin A or restoring the follistatin/activin ratio should reverse the functional deficit within weeks. Mechanism: Activin A → ACVR2A/B + ALK4 → SMAD2/3 phosphorylation → induction of atrogenes (FBXO32, TRIM63), suppression of mTORC1-dependent protein synthesis, and p21/p16 upregulation via SMAD–CDKN1A promoter occupancy; the same ligand sustains SASP amplification in neighbouring cells, creating a feed-forward circulating loop. Prediction: Infusion of recombinant activin A into young animals at concentrations matching old plasma reproduces grip-strength loss, p21+ cell accumulation and endothelial dysfunction; conversely, an activin-A-selective antibody (sparing myostatin/GDF11) in old animals restores strength and lowers p21 within 4–8 weeks, whereas a myostatin-only blockade increases mass without reversing senescence markers.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "Circulating oxysterols, especially 7-ketocholesterol and 27-hydroxycholesterol generated by age-related oxidative and macrophage activity, causally induce endothelial and vascular smooth-muscle senescence and are the lipid arm of sex-divergent midlife ageing. Their action is receptor- and mitochondria-mediated rather than a byproduct of plaque burden, and lowering the oxysterol-to-cholesterol ratio should reverse the vascular senescence burden. Mechanism: 7-ketocholesterol inserts into membranes and triggers mitochondrial permeability transition, mtROS and NLRP3 inflammasome activation; 27-hydroxycholesterol acts as a selective oestrogen-receptor modulator and LXR ligand, antagonising ERα-dependent eNOS activity in women after oestrogen loss. Both converge on p53/p21-dependent endothelial senescence and SASP release. Prediction: Lowering circulating 27-hydroxycholesterol by CYP27A1 inhibition or raising CYP7B1 catabolism in old animals improves endothelium-dependent vasodilation and reduces aortic p21+ cells without changing total cholesterol, while matched total-cholesterol reduction alone does not — and infusing 7-ketocholesterol to old-plasma levels in young animals induces the same vascular senescence in the absence of hypercholesterolaemia.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42642521", "pmid": "42642521", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01181-4", "title": "A geroprotective probiotic and its functional metabolite counteract inflammaging to extend healthspan.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-25", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies and validates a causal microbiome-derived intervention and metabolite that reduce inflammaging and improve healthspan-related outcomes in naturally aged mice.", "background": "The gut microbiome changes with age and is associated with immune dysregulation, chronic low-grade inflammation and functional decline. Microbiome composition also varies substantially among individuals and populations, making it difficult to distinguish consequential changes from incidental biomarkers of ageing. Animal studies suggest that manipulating gut microbial communities can influence age-related physiology, but the responsible organisms and molecular mediators have remained poorly defined. Establishing causality requires showing that a defined microbial intervention improves ageing phenotypes and identifying a functional mechanism that reproduces those effects.", "question": "Can a specific age-depleted gut microbe and one of its metabolites causally suppress inflammaging and improve healthspan in old animals?", "subject": "Microbial control of inflammaging", "finding": "Bifidobacterium pseudocatenulatum, which declines with age in human cohorts, causally improved intestinal homeostasis, reduced multiorgan inflammaging, enhanced cognitive and motor performance and extended healthspan in naturally aged mice. Its metabolite 5-aminovaleric acid betaine (5-AVAB), also reduced during human ageing, partially reproduced these systemic benefits when administered alone.", "key_points": [ "B. pseudocatenulatum is depleted during ageing", "Oral bacterial treatment improves healthspan in aged mice", "Treatment suppresses intestinal and multiorgan inflammaging", "5-AVAB is a functional metabolite of the bacterium", "5-AVAB supplementation partially reproduces the benefits" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of secondary bile-acid-producing microbes with age (bai-operon-carrying Clostridium scindens-like organisms) causally permits inflammaging, and a single secondary bile acid metabolite — 3-oxolithocholic acid or isoalloLCA — restores immune balance and healthspan in old animals. Mechanism: The bile-acid 7α-dehydroxylation pathway converts host primary bile acids into lithocholic-acid derivatives. isoalloLCA promotes peripheral Treg differentiation via mitochondrial ROS-dependent FOXP3 enhancer demethylation, while 3-oxoLCA directly binds RORγt and suppresses Th17 differentiation. Age-related collapse of this pathway shifts the intestinal and systemic T-cell compartment toward IL-17-driven inflammation that acts on muscle and bone. Prediction: Colonising old mice with a bai-operon-competent strain, or feeding isoalloLCA/3-oxoLCA, raises colonic Treg:Th17 ratio, lowers serum IL-17A and IL-6, and improves muscle mass and bone density; a bai-operon-deleted isogenic strain does not. The metabolite effect disappears in RORγt-mutant mice carrying the 3-oxoLCA-binding-site substitution, identifying the receptor rather than a general bile-acid detergent or FXR/TGR5 metabolic effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Age-depleted butyrate-producing Clostridia (e.g. Faecalibacterium/Roseburia-type taxa, or Clostridium butyricum in mice) causally drive inflammaging through loss of luminal butyrate, and butyrate alone is sufficient to reverse a defined subset of ageing phenotypes in old animals. Mechanism: Butyrate is the colonocyte's primary energy substrate and an HDAC inhibitor and GPR109A/GPR43 agonist. Its loss leads to colonocyte hypoxia failure, dysbiotic facultative-anaerobe bloom, and reduced peripheral induction of RORγt+ Helios− colonic Tregs. Restored butyrate re-expands Tregs, inhibits HDAC3-dependent NLRP3 and IL-1β transcription in macrophages, and dampens systemic inflammatory tone. Prediction: Monocolonisation of old germ-free or antibiotic-treated mice with a butyrogenic strain, or tributyrin feeding matched to the colonic butyrate concentration it produces, both reduce colonic IL-1β, serum IL-6 and p16-positive cell burden and improve intestinal permeability and frailty index — while an isogenic butyrate-synthesis mutant (buk/but deletion) colonises equally but fails to do so. Benefit is lost in Gpr109a-null or Treg-depleted (Foxp3-DTR) old mice, ruling out a nonspecific caloric or pH effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "Age-associated loss of specific indole-producing commensals (tryptophanase-positive Lactobacillus/Bacteroides-type organisms) causally drives inflammaging, and indole-3-aldehyde or indole-3-propionate is sufficient to restore barrier immunity and healthspan in old animals. Mechanism: Bacterial tryptophan catabolites are aryl hydrocarbon receptor agonists. AHR signalling in ILC3s and γδ T cells sustains IL-22 production, which maintains antimicrobial peptide output, mucus and epithelial regeneration; AHR in intestinal macrophages restrains NF-κB. Age-related loss of indole ligands collapses the IL-22 axis, increasing microbial translocation and systemic inflammation while also reducing microglial AHR tone. Prediction: Old mice given an indole-producing strain or oral indole-3-aldehyde show restored colonic IL-22 and Reg3γ, reduced serum IL-6/TNF-α, improved permeability, and better learning and gait, while a tryptophanase/aromatic-aminotransferase-deficient isogenic strain does not. Benefits are abolished in Ahr-null mice or by the AHR antagonist CH-223191, and by Il22 neutralisation — separating this ligand–receptor mechanism from SCFA, bile-acid and barrier-mechanical explanations.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Akkermansia muciniphila is depleted in aged animals, and its restoration by oral gavage into old mice causally suppresses inflammaging and improves healthspan. The effect is reproduced by its metabolite/structural mediator acting on the intestinal barrier rather than by generic probiotic load. Mechanism: A. muciniphila restores mucus-layer thickness and tight-junction integrity, lowering translocation of LPS and other microbial products into portal and systemic circulation. Reduced endotoxin load lowers TLR4/NF-κB signalling in liver, visceral adipose and brain myeloid cells, cutting circulating IL-6/TNF-α and age-associated monocyte activation. Prediction: Old mice colonised with live A. muciniphila (or given its purified Amuc_1100 outer-membrane protein) show reduced serum LPS-binding protein, IL-6 and TNF-α, improved grip strength and rotarod performance, and extended median remaining lifespan — whereas equally dosed heat-killed, non-mucin-degrading control bacteria that raise bacterial load without restoring mucus do not. Effects are abolished in Tlr4-knockout or Myd88-deficient recipients, showing the pathway is endotoxin-driven barrier repair, not an unrelated metabolic action.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "Age-driven depletion of microbes that salvage or supply nicotinamide/NAD+ precursors (e.g. nicotinamide-riboside-liberating or nicotinic-acid-producing commensals, including deamidation by bacterial PncA/Nampt-pathway activity) causally lowers host tissue NAD+ and thereby sustains inflammaging in old animals. Mechanism: Commensal bacteria deamidate nicotinamide to nicotinic acid and liberate NR from dietary and host sources, feeding the host Preiss–Handler route. Their loss reduces intestinal and hepatic NAD+, impairing SIRT1/SIRT3-dependent deacetylation of p65 and limiting macrophage mitochondrial fitness, which locks myeloid cells into glycolytic, NLRP3-active, cGAS–STING-sensitive inflammatory states. Prediction: Old mice colonised with the NAD+-precursor-supplying strain show increased colon and liver NAD+, reduced NLRP3/IL-1β and type-I interferon signatures, and improved endurance and cognition; an isogenic pncA-deficient strain colonises identically but raises neither NAD+ nor function. Direct NR/NA supplementation phenocopies the live strain, and the strain's benefit is abolished by hepatocyte Nampt/Preiss–Handler blockade or Sirt1 deletion — distinguishing a precursor-supply mechanism from an immune-ligand effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42647119", "pmid": "42647119", "doi": "10.1073/pnas.2612369123", "title": "Aging limits neuronal regeneration from glia in the mouse retina.", "journal": "Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-26", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally identifies age-dependent cellular and neuroimmune mechanisms that impair neuronal regeneration and demonstrates a partial causal rescue through immunomodulation.", "background": "Cellular reprogramming offers a potential way to replace neurons lost through injury or neurodegenerative disease. Most regenerative strategies have been developed and validated in young experimental animals, although advanced age is the principal risk factor for many neurological disorders. Aging can alter both the plasticity of resident cells and the tissue response to injury. It was therefore unclear whether neuronal reprogramming would remain effective in aged neural tissue and which age-associated processes might limit it.", "question": "How does aging affect injury-induced neuronal reprogramming in the retina, and what mechanisms account for any age-related loss of regenerative capacity?", "subject": "Age-limited neuronal regeneration", "finding": "Aging suppresses Müller glia-to-neuron reprogramming by preventing activation of progenitor programs while promoting reactive and inflammatory glial states and an exaggerated retinal neuroimmune response. Dexamethasone partially restores neurogenesis, confirming that age-associated inflammation is a causal, therapeutically tractable component of the regenerative defect, alongside glial-intrinsic barriers.", "key_points": [ "Aged Müller glia generate fewer neurons across three reprogramming strategies", "Aged glia fail to activate progenitor programs", "Reactive and inflammatory states increase with age", "The injured aged retina mounts an exaggerated neuroimmune response", "Dexamethasone partially rescues neurogenesis" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "The age-related loss of reprogramming capacity is metabolic: conversion requires a glycolytic–oxidative rewiring that aged glia, with declining mitochondrial and NAD+ capacity, cannot execute. Reprogramming in aged retina fails at the energetic/redox transition rather than at the transcriptional one. Mechanism: Reduced NAD+/NADH ratio, sirtuin activity, mitochondrial biogenesis (PGC-1α) and elevated ROS in aged Müller glia prevent the metabolic shift and raise oxidative damage during the plastic window; one-carbon metabolism dependent on NAD+/SAM also limits the chromatin remodelling the switch requires. Prediction: Metabolomic profiling shows aged reprogramming-stage glia fail the expected glycolytic shift; supplementing NMN/NR, boosting Sirt1, or mitochondrially targeted antioxidants (MitoQ) increases conversion efficiency in aged retina, whereas pharmacologic NAD+ depletion or complex I inhibition reproduces the aged phenotype in young retina.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Senescent cells accumulating in aged retina act as a dominant-negative brake on reprogramming, so removing them restores regenerative competence. The block is paracrine and reversible on a timescale of weeks, not a permanent developmental loss. Mechanism: p16/p21-positive senescent Müller glia, astrocytes and RPE secrete a SASP (IL-6, IL-8, TGF-β, MMPs) that enforces cell-cycle arrest and gliotic identity in neighbouring glia; TGF-β/SMAD and p53–p21 signalling specifically prevent the transient proliferative/plastic state required for conversion. Prediction: Senolytic treatment (dasatinib+quercetin, ABT-263, or p16-INK-ATTAC clearance) or TGF-β receptor inhibition before reprogramming raises neuron yield in aged retina, and the magnitude of rescue correlates with the drop in retinal p16/p21 burden; forced p21 expression abolishes conversion in young retina.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Aging reduces the efficiency of injury-induced conversion of Müller glia into neurons in the mammalian retina, and this decline is driven primarily by an intrinsic, chromatin-level loss of competence in the glia rather than by a failure of the reprogramming stimulus to reach them. Aged Müller glia receive the same injury and transcription-factor input but close the neurogenic gene program. Mechanism: Progressive accumulation of repressive chromatin (H3K27me3/H3K9me3, DNA methylation, loss of accessibility) at proneural loci such as Ascl1, Neurod1, Otx2 and Atoh7 in aged Müller glia, so the reprogramming factor cannot engage its target enhancers. Prediction: ATAC-seq/CUT&RUN on aged versus young Müller glia after identical Ascl1 induction plus injury shows the factor binds fewer proneural enhancers in aged cells, and co-delivery of an HDAC inhibitor or Ezh2/Dnmt knockdown restores neuron yield toward young levels without altering factor expression.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Aging shifts the outcome of reprogramming rather than blocking it: aged glia still exit the glial state but arrest at an immature or hybrid intermediate, producing fewer fully differentiated, correctly specified neurons. The bottleneck is maturation and subtype specification, not initiation. Mechanism: Weakened downstream effector cascade — insufficient Neurod/Otx2/Nrl-stage activation, incomplete silencing of glial identity genes, and failure of activity- and synapse-dependent maturation cues in the aged retina — leaves cells in a Ascl1-on/partially-neuronal state. Prediction: Single-cell RNA-seq of aged reprogrammed retina reveals an accumulation of hybrid glia–neuron intermediates with retained glial transcripts, while total converted-lineage cells approaches young levels; supplying a second-stage factor (Neurod1/Otx2) or an activity-promoting stimulus pushes these intermediates to mature neurons.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Age-related failure is not cell-intrinsic but imposed by the aged retinal microenvironment, specifically a shift of the injury response toward sustained inflammation. Chronic inflammatory signalling in aged retina locks Müller glia in a reactive gliotic state that is incompatible with neurogenic conversion. Mechanism: Aged microglia and infiltrating immune cells produce persistently elevated IL-1β, IL-6, TNF and complement, driving NF-κB/STAT3-dependent gliosis (GFAP, Nestin, Stat3 targets) that competes with and represses the proneural program. Prediction: Microglial depletion, or blockade of IL-6/JAK-STAT3 or IL-1 signalling during the reprogramming window, substantially increases neuron yield in aged retina; conversely, transplanting aged microglia or applying aged-retina conditioned medium suppresses conversion in young retina.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42647635", "pmid": "42647635", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.adu0632", "title": "Development of mitochondrial mutator pigs exhibiting increased mitochondrial DNA mutations and premature aging via prime editing.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-26", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally demonstrates a specific causal link between loss of POLG proofreading activity, increased mitochondrial DNA mutation burden, and premature ageing in a large mammal.", "background": "Ageing is accompanied by progressive molecular damage, impaired tissue maintenance, and declining physiological function. Genetic studies in laboratory organisms have identified processes that can influence lifespan and cellular senescence. However, findings from small-animal models do not always translate directly to humans because of major differences in physiology, metabolism, and lifespan. A large-mammal model is therefore valuable for testing whether a proposed source of molecular damage can directly produce systemic ageing phenotypes.", "question": "Does experimentally increasing somatic mitochondrial DNA mutation burden cause premature ageing and shortened lifespan in a large mammal?", "subject": "Mitochondrial mutations and ageing", "finding": "Prime-edited pigs expressing proofreading-deficient POLG accumulated elevated somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations and developed systemic premature-ageing phenotypes. These included weight loss, rough hair, anaemia, tissue abnormalities, increased apoptosis, elevated senescence-associated markers, and shortened lifespan.", "key_points": [ "Proofreading-deficient POLG", "Increased somatic mitochondrial DNA mutations", "Systemic premature-ageing phenotypes", "Increased apoptosis and senescence markers", "Shortened lifespan" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Premature ageing under a high mtDNA mutation burden is driven by bioenergetic and proteostatic insufficiency (ATP deficit plus a chronic mitochondrial integrated stress response), not by increased oxidative damage. Mechanism: Mutation-bearing respiratory complexes assemble poorly, lowering ATP output and NAD+/NADH ratio and triggering OMA1–DELE1–HRI/ATF4-type signalling that reprogrammes one-carbon and serine metabolism and suppresses anabolic tissue maintenance. Electron leak does not rise proportionally, so ROS markers are a bystander rather than a cause. Prediction: Affected tissues show elevated ATF4/GDF15, altered serine–glycine flux and reduced ATP/phosphocreatine (in vivo 31P-MRS) while 8-oxo-dG, protein carbonyls and lipid peroxidation stay near age-matched control levels. Mitochondrially targeted antioxidant exposure does not rescue lifespan or function, whereas interventions raising NAD+ or suppressing chronic ISR signalling partially do.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "A substantial part of the systemic ageing phenotype is immune-mediated: mutant mtDNA destabilises mitochondrial membranes and releases mtDNA fragments into the cytosol and circulation, where innate-immune sensing produces chronic sterile inflammation that damages tissues far from the most mutated cells. Mechanism: Mutation-driven respiratory failure promotes mitochondrial permeabilisation (VDAC/BAX macropores, mPTP) and release of mtDNA, which activates cGAS–STING and TLR9 and primes NLRP3, generating sustained type-I interferon and IL-6/IL-1β tone — 'inflammageing' — that drives bone loss, insulin resistance, vascular stiffening and immune remodelling. Prediction: Circulating cell-free mtDNA, interferon-stimulated gene signatures and IL-6 rise before overt organ pathology and correlate with phenotype severity across animals. Interrupting the sensing arm (STING-pathway blockade, or IL-1/IL-6 neutralisation) attenuates inflammatory ageing phenotypes and extends median survival while leaving tissue mtDNA mutation load unchanged — dissociating damage from downstream pathology.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "mtDNA mutation burden causes ageing chiefly by exhausting stem and progenitor compartments; the phenotype is transplantable and compartment-attributable rather than being a uniform property of all somatic cells. Restricting the elevated mutation rate to progenitor compartments reproduces much of the phenotype, while restricting it to post-mitotic cells does not. Mechanism: Stem cells depend on oxidative metabolism for differentiation commitment and use mitochondrial quality control during self-renewal; mutant mtDNA impairs this, causing differentiation blocks, progenitor apoptosis/senescence and depleted regenerative reserve. Tissues then fail to replace losses, producing atrophy, anaemia, thymic involution, poor wound healing and frailty. Prediction: Tissue-restricted (conditional) induction in haematopoietic or muscle satellite compartments yields the corresponding ageing phenotypes and reduced repair capacity, while induction limited to differentiated post-mitotic cells of the same organs yields far milder phenotypes at equal mutation load. Serial transplantation of mutation-burdened haematopoietic cells into wild-type recipients transfers premature immune ageing and anaemia; wild-type cells transplanted into mutation-burdened recipients partially rescue it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Elevating the somatic mtDNA point-mutation rate in a large mammal (e.g., a proofreading-deficient mitochondrial polymerase gamma allele in pig or sheep) is sufficient to cause premature, multi-system ageing and shortened lifespan, without requiring any change in nuclear genome integrity. Severity should scale monotonically with the achieved mutation burden rather than appearing as an all-or-nothing effect. Mechanism: Random mtDNA point mutations accumulate during tissue turnover; within individual cells, drift and clonal expansion drive some mutant species above the biochemical threshold for respiratory-chain assembly, producing a mosaic of OXPHOS-deficient cells. The aggregate loss of respiratory capacity degrades tissue maintenance in high-demand and high-turnover tissues simultaneously, yielding the composite phenotype read as 'ageing'. Prediction: A dose-response relationship: animals stratified by measured tissue mtDNA mutation load (deep sequencing) show graded severity of sarcopenia, cardiac dysfunction, alopecia, osteopenia, anaemia and reduced median lifespan, with onset age inversely proportional to load. Heterozygotes with intermediate load show intermediate, not absent, phenotypes. Nuclear mutation frequency and telomere length remain at wild-type levels.", "strict": 1, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 4 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "The ageing phenotype is produced specifically by cells crossing a per-cell mutant-load threshold and expanding clonally, not by the average mutation burden across the tissue. Two tissues with identical mean mutation load will age at different rates if they differ in the fraction of cells that are clonally fixed for a deleterious variant. Mechanism: Mitochondrial genetic bottlenecks during cell division and mitophagy-mediated selection allow one mutant haplotype to approach homoplasmy within a clone. Biochemical buffering means respiratory failure only manifests above ~60–90% mutant heteroplasmy; below that the cell is functionally normal. Pathology is therefore a function of the number of threshold-crossing clones, which depends on tissue proliferative architecture. Prediction: Single-cell or laser-capture heteroplasmy profiling predicts organ dysfunction better than bulk mutation load (higher variance explained, and bulk load loses significance when clone fraction is included). Clonally structured tissues (intestinal crypts, skeletal muscle fibre segments, haematopoietic lineages) show early COX-negative mosaicism and early dysfunction; post-mitotic low-turnover tissues with matched bulk load are comparatively spared.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42663085", "pmid": "42663085", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70692", "title": "Shelterin TPP1 Promotes Hair Regeneration Through Activating Bulge Hair Follicle Stem Cells.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-28", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports experimentally confirmed causal mechanisms linking an age-related decline in hair regeneration to a defined molecular regulator and therapeutic intervention.", "background": "Ageing commonly impairs the cyclical regeneration of hair follicles, contributing to progressive hair thinning and alopecia. Hair growth depends on the orderly transition of follicles from a resting phase into a proliferative growth phase. With age, this transition becomes less efficient as regenerative cells lose functional capacity. Whether this decline can be reversed by directly restoring an intrinsic molecular control of follicle regeneration remained unresolved.", "question": "Can an intrinsic molecular regulator be enhanced to reactivate quiescent hair follicles and restore hair regeneration, and through what mechanism?", "subject": "Age-related hair regeneration", "finding": "Increasing TPP1, either through stem-cell Acd overexpression or topical stabilization with the peptide TELODIN, accelerates hair regeneration in mice. TPP1 coordinates telomere capping and telomerase recruitment, activating bulge hair follicle stem cells and promoting their proliferation, differentiation, and migration as follicles transition synchronously from telogen to anagen.", "key_points": [ "TPP1 causally promotes hair regeneration", "TPP1 activates bulge hair follicle stem cells", "Telomere capping and telomerase recruitment mediate the effect", "Follicles transition from telogen to anagen", "Topical TELODIN stabilizes TPP1 and promotes hair growth" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Enhancing a single intrinsic chromatin regulator that maintains the HFSC activation enhancer landscape (e.g. restoring youthful activity of a bulge-specific enhancer-licensing factor such as a FOXC1/NFATc1-counteracting or MLL/EZH2-balancing activity) is sufficient to restore cyclical regeneration, because the ageing defect is epigenetic rather than a loss of cells. Mechanism: Aged HFSCs persist in normal numbers but their anagen-entry enhancers become closed (H3K27me3-high / low H3K27ac). Restoring the regulator reopens these enhancers, re-establishing responsiveness to unchanged dermal papilla signals; the follicle then cycles normally through subsequent rounds. Prediction: ATAC-seq of aged bulge cells after treatment shows reopening of youthful anagen enhancers before any proliferation marker appears, and treated follicles complete two or more spontaneous cycles after a single intervention window — whereas ligand-based activators (Wnt agonist, BMP antagonist) give one synchronous wave without restoring autonomous cycling.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "Reactivation depends on restoring intrinsic HFSC–niche adhesion and mechanotransduction: age-related loss of a hemidesmosome/basement-membrane component (collagen XVII/ITGB1 axis) causes HFSC dedifferentiation and shedding, and re-expressing it in aged follicles restores regeneration. Mechanism: COL17A1 proteolysis in aged HFSCs disrupts anchorage to the basement membrane, raising genomic/oxidative stress and driving epidermal-committed differentiation and follicle miniaturisation. Forced COL17A1 (or integrin-β1/YAP-mediated mechanosignal) expression re-anchors HFSCs, lowers stress-induced differentiation, and restores the capacity to generate a new hair germ. Prediction: COL17A1 re-expression in aged mice restores bulge HFSC numbers and follicle diameter and yields regrowth with durable follicle size, while matched Wnt-only activation gives hair without correcting miniaturisation; ITGB1 or YAP inhibition abolishes the COL17A1 effect, and protease inhibition that preserves endogenous COL17A1 phenocopies it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Reactivation is gated by an HFSC metabolic switch: age-related loss of glycolytic/lactate flux (Mpc1–lactate dehydrogenase axis) prevents anagen entry, and restoring intrinsic lactate production reactivates quiescent follicles in aged mice. Mechanism: Anagen entry requires HFSCs to shunt pyruvate to lactate. Ageing increases mitochondrial pyruvate import and lowers LDHA activity, so cells cannot generate the lactate/NAD+ ratio and epigenetic acetylation/lactylation state that licenses proliferation. Pharmacologic MPC inhibition or LDHA stimulation restores lactate, remodels histone lactylation/acetylation at activation loci, and triggers anagen. Prediction: Aged follicles treated with an MPC1 inhibitor show elevated intrafollicular lactate and bulge histone lactylation within days, followed by anagen; LDHA-null HFSCs are refractory to the same treatment, and lactate supplementation alone recapitulates regrowth — ruling out a purely signalling-ligand mechanism.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "The decisive age-dependent brake is increased dermal/HFSC BMP signalling that enforces refractory telogen; enhancing an intrinsic BMP antagonist (noggin-type inhibition or SMAD1/5/8 blockade) in aged follicles reactivates them. Mechanism: Aged dermis raises BMP2/4 tone, keeping HFSCs in a Nfatc1/Bmpr1a-high quiescent state and blocking the Wnt-driven activation program. Enhancing the endogenous antagonist shifts the BMP:Wnt ratio, lowers phospho-SMAD1/5 in the bulge, de-represses Shh/Lef1, and permits hair germ proliferation. Prediction: Aged skin treated with a BMP antagonist shows reduced bulge phospho-SMAD1/5 preceding (not following) Ki67 induction and regrows hair; co-delivery of exogenous BMP4 abolishes regrowth, whereas Wnt-agonist controls regrow hair without changing phospho-SMAD1/5 — separating BMP de-repression from direct Wnt activation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Age-related alopecia is driven by declining activity of a single intrinsic transcriptional regulator of the telogen-to-anagen switch in hair follicle stem cells (HFSCs); restoring its expression in aged skin is sufficient to reactivate quiescent follicles and regrow hair. Specifically, we hypothesise that re-expression of a Wnt/β-catenin-coupled stemness factor (e.g. SOX2/LEF1-axis or a β-catenin stabiliser) in the aged bulge/hair germ is both necessary and sufficient for anagen re-entry. Mechanism: Ageing lowers the regulator's level below the threshold needed to de-repress Wnt target genes in HFSCs. Supplying the factor (transgene, mRNA, or small-molecule stabiliser) restores β-catenin-dependent transcription in the hair germ, driving HFSC activation, transit-amplifying cell proliferation, and matrix formation — i.e. a bona fide anagen entry rather than hypertrophy of existing shafts. Prediction: Topical/intradermal delivery to aged mouse dorsal skin produces pigmented anagen follicles with Ki67+ matrix and nuclear β-catenin within 2–3 weeks, while the same dose in HFSC-specific conditional knockouts of the regulator (or with Wnt-pathway inhibition, e.g. ICG-001/porcupine inhibitor) fails to regrow hair — establishing that the effect runs through the regulator's own Wnt-coupled transcriptional output and not through generic irritation-induced anagen.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42664348", "pmid": "42664348", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aee6780", "title": "Adipose-cartilage communication via EV-Mito-mtDNA signaling promotes osteoarthritis progression.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-28", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism linking excess adiposity to osteoarthritis, an age-related degenerative disease, including induction of cellular senescence and joint degeneration.", "background": "Osteoarthritis is a common age-related disorder characterized by progressive joint deterioration, inflammation, pain, and loss of mobility. Obesity substantially increases osteoarthritis risk, including in joints that do not bear additional body weight, suggesting that mechanical loading alone cannot explain the association. Adipose tissue can influence distant organs through circulating signals, but the molecular basis of its contribution to joint degeneration remained unclear. Identifying the responsible signals and downstream processes could reveal targets for preventing or treating obesity-associated osteoarthritis.", "question": "By what causal molecular mechanism does excess adiposity promote osteoarthritis progression, and can disrupting that mechanism reduce joint pathology?", "subject": "Adiposity-driven osteoarthritis", "finding": "Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles enriched in mitochondrial components transfer mitochondrial DNA to chondrocytes, where it activates cGAS-STING signaling and causes inflammation, metabolic dysfunction, senescence, and cartilage degeneration. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of this pathway attenuates cartilage damage, pain behaviors, and gait abnormalities.", "key_points": [ "Adipocyte-derived EV-Mito carry mitochondrial DNA", "Mitochondrial DNA is transferred to chondrocytes", "Transferred DNA activates cGAS-STING signaling", "The pathway drives senescence and cartilage degeneration", "cGAS-STING inhibition reduces osteoarthritis pathology" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "A specific adipose-secreted signal acts directly on chondrocytes to push them into a senescent, matrix-degrading secretory state, and clearing those senescent chondrocytes or blocking the receptor reverses obesity-associated joint pathology. Mechanism: The adipokine signal (e.g. leptin acting via LepR–JAK2/STAT3, or adipose-derived chemerin via CMKLR1) raises chondrocyte oxidative stress and p16/p21, producing a senescence-associated secretory phenotype rich in IL-6, MMP-3/13 and VEGF that degrades matrix and drives osteophyte formation in a feed-forward paracrine loop. Prediction: Chondrocyte-specific receptor deletion, or senolytic clearance of p16-high chondrocytes, reduces cartilage loss in obese mice while adiposity is unchanged; conversely, restoring the signal locally (intra-articular delivery) in lean mice reproduces senescence markers and cartilage damage, which is absent in p16-null cartilage.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Obesity promotes osteoarthritis through a gut-derived route: altered microbiota and increased intestinal permeability deliver bacterial products (LPS, peptidoglycan) that accumulate in synovium and prime joint innate immunity, making the joint hypersensitive to ordinary mechanical input. Mechanism: High-fat feeding thins the mucus layer and loosens tight junctions, raising portal and systemic endotoxin; LPS binds synovial CD14/TLR4 and lowers the threshold for inflammatory activation, so normal loading now triggers cytokine bursts and protease release. Prediction: Germ-free or antibiotic-treated obese mice, oligofructose-supplemented obese mice, or TLR4-deficient obese mice show markedly less cartilage damage at equal body mass; synovial LPS immunoreactivity correlates with OA severity, and colonizing lean mice with obese-donor microbiota increases joint damage without matching weight gain.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Excess adiposity reprograms synovial macrophages metabolically rather than merely increasing their number: saturated free fatty acids and oxidized lipids delivered from adipose depots push synovial lining macrophages toward glycolytic, IL-1β-secreting states, and this macrophage state — not mechanical load — is the proximate cause of chondrocyte matrix degradation. Mechanism: Adipose-derived palmitate and oxidized phospholipids engage TLR4/CD36 on synovial macrophages, license NLRP3 inflammasome assembly, and shift them to HIF-1α-dependent glycolysis; sustained IL-1β and TNF signaling onto chondrocytes induces MMP-13/ADAMTS-5 and suppresses anabolic SOX9/COL2A1. Prediction: Depleting or metabolically re-programming synovial macrophages (CSF1R blockade, myeloid Hif1a or Nlrp3 deletion) protects the joints of obese mice while leaving adiposity intact; single-cell profiling shows the glycolytic macrophage cluster expands in obese joints before cartilage structural damage is detectable, and its abundance predicts later OARSI score better than body weight does.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Obesity changes the cargo of adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles, and these vesicles — not soluble factors — are the vehicle that carries the pathogenic signal to the joint, delivering microRNAs that silence cartilage anabolic programs. Mechanism: Hypertrophic and hypoxic adipocytes export EVs enriched in specific miRNAs (e.g. miR-34a/miR-146a family members) and in lipolysis-derived lipids; these are taken up by chondrocytes and synoviocytes, repress SOX9/TIMP and PPARγ targets, and de-repress NF-κB-dependent proteases. Prediction: Intra-articular injection of EVs purified from obese (but not lean) adipose tissue induces cartilage degradation in lean mice; adipocyte-specific blockade of EV biogenesis (Rab27a or nSMase2 deletion) protects obese mice, and deleting the implicated miRNA from adipose tissue abolishes transfer of the phenotype even though adiposity and circulating leptin remain elevated.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Adipose tissue is a major source of a circulating complement-pathway protease that reaches synovial fluid and locally activates the alternative complement cascade on chondrocyte surfaces and damaged matrix, driving cartilage catabolism. Genetic or pharmacological interruption of this adipose-to-joint complement axis should reduce cartilage loss and synovitis in diet-induced obesity without requiring weight loss. Mechanism: Hypertrophic adipocytes secrete a rate-limiting complement activator; it enters the joint, amplifies C3/C5 convertase assembly on cartilage debris, generates C5a and the membrane attack complex sublytically on chondrocytes, which induces MMP-13/ADAMTS-5 and recruits C5aR1+ synovial macrophages. Prediction: Adipocyte-specific deletion of the secreted activator (or C5aR1 blockade) in obese mice reduces OARSI cartilage score and synovitis while body mass, fat mass and joint loading stay unchanged; parabiosis or serum transfer from obese wild-type mice restores pathology in the knockout, and the protection is lost in complement-deficient recipients.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42665751", "pmid": "42665751", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01195-y", "title": "Mitochondrial DNA leakage in oocytes activates cGAS-STING signaling to drive ovarian aging.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-28", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism of age-related ovarian decline and validates genetic and pharmacological interventions in multiple mouse models.", "background": "Ovarian function declines earlier than the function of many other organs, reducing fertility and altering endocrine health. Age-related deterioration of cellular quality, tissue communication and inflammatory homeostasis has been implicated in this process. Mitochondrial dysfunction is common in ageing reproductive tissues, but whether it directly initiates ovarian decline rather than merely accompanying it has remained uncertain. The molecular signals linking mitochondrial stress to dysfunction across the ovarian follicle were unknown.", "question": "How does age-associated mitochondrial dysfunction initiate and propagate inflammatory signaling that causes ovarian functional decline?", "subject": "Mechanism of ovarian ageing", "finding": "Ageing-associated mitochondrial DNA leakage from oocytes activates oocyte cGAS, generating cGAMP that triggers STING signaling and passes through gap junctions to activate STING in surrounding granulosa cells. Genetic deletion of oocyte Cgas or pharmacological STING inhibition ameliorates inflammation and ovarian dysfunction, establishing this signaling axis as a causal driver of ovarian ageing.", "key_points": [ "Mitochondrial stress causes mtDNA leakage from oocytes", "Leaked mtDNA activates the cGAS–cGAMP–STING pathway", "Oocyte-derived cGAMP transmits signaling to granulosa cells through gap junctions", "Pathway activation promotes ovarian inflammation and functional decline", "Genetic or pharmacological pathway inhibition rescues ovarian dysfunction" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "Mitochondrial dysfunction triggers an ovarian cell-non-autonomous mitochondrial unfolded-protein/integrated stress response whose secreted mediators — notably GDF15 and FGF21 together with mitochondrial-derived peptides such as humanin and MOTS-c — act as the signal that propagates follicular dysfunction, and loss of the protective peptide arm with gain of the GDF15 arm converts a local stress response into ovary-wide inflammatory decline. Mechanism: OXPHOS failure activates OMA1–DELE1–HRI and ATF4/CHOP, inducing secretion of GDF15 and FGF21 from granulosa cells. These act on neighboring and distant follicular cells and on ovarian macrophages (GFRAL-independent local receptors and GDF15-driven monocyte activation) to suppress steroidogenic gene programs and promote inflammatory recruitment, while age-related decline in humanin/MOTS-c removes the cytoprotective, anti-inflammatory counterbalance. Prediction: Granulosa-specific Dele1 or Atf4 deletion, or GDF15 neutralization, prevents the spread of dysfunction to follicles that are not themselves mitochondrially impaired (demonstrable in mosaic/chimeric ovaries where only a subset of cells carries the mitochondrial lesion), and exogenous humanin analogue (HNG) or MOTS-c restores follicle number and reduces ovarian IL-6 without correcting the primary respiratory-chain defect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "Age-associated loss of mitochondrial DNA integrity in oocytes and granulosa cells causes release of mtDNA into the cytosol, which activates the cGAS–STING pathway and initiates type I interferon and NF-κB–driven inflammatory signaling within the follicle. This cell-intrinsic innate-immune activation, rather than infiltrating immune cells, is the initiating event of ovarian functional decline. Mechanism: Oxidative damage and reduced mitophagy in aged follicles permit mtDNA escape through BAX/BAK macropores and VDAC oligomers into the cytosol. Cytosolic mtDNA binds cGAS, generating cGAMP that activates STING, driving TBK1/IRF3 interferon output and NF-κB induction of IL-6, IL-1β and CXCL10. The resulting local inflammatory milieu impairs granulosa steroidogenesis and accelerates follicular atresia. Prediction: Oocyte- or granulosa-specific deletion of Cgas or Sting1, or pharmacological STING inhibition (H-151), in aged or mitochondrially stressed mice preserves follicle reserve, estradiol/AMH levels and fertility while leaving mtDNA copy number and oxidative damage unchanged — i.e. the mitochondrial lesion persists but the functional decline is prevented. Conversely, ovarian expression of a mitochondrial nuclease-resistant mtDNA-releasing mutant (e.g. TFAM haploinsufficiency) reproduces the decline, and it is rescued by STING loss.", "strict": 1, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 4 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Mitochondrial dysfunction in the ovary degrades the local NAD+ pool, and NAD+ depletion simultaneously disables sirtuin-dependent restraint of NF-κB and sirtuin-dependent mitophagy, creating a self-amplifying feed-forward loop in which inflammation worsens mitochondrial quality and mitochondrial damage worsens inflammation. Mechanism: Reduced electron-transport flux and increased CD38/PARP activity (itself driven by inflammatory signaling and DNA damage) lower NAD+. Low NAD+ inactivates SIRT1 (loss of RelA/p65 deacetylation → sustained NF-κB transcription) and SIRT3 (loss of SOD2 and mitophagy regulation → more mtROS). The two arms reinforce each other, so the decline is bistable: a modest early mitochondrial insult locks the follicle into a chronic inflammatory state. Prediction: Ovarian NAD+ repletion (NMN/NR or CD38 inhibition) started before the inflammatory transition prevents decline, whereas the identical intervention started after inflammatory markers rise fails — a hysteresis/threshold signature absent in a purely linear damage model. Breaking either arm alone (SIRT1-resistant p65 acetyl-mutant, or SIRT3 overexpression) should only partially rescue, while breaking both is fully protective.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Age-related mitochondrial dysfunction primes and activates the NLRP3 inflammasome in ovarian macrophages and granulosa cells, and the resulting IL-1β/IL-18 and gasdermin-D–dependent signaling is the proximate cause of accelerated follicle loss and stromal fibrosis. Mechanism: ROS, oxidized mtDNA and cardiolipin externalization from damaged mitochondria license NLRP3–ASC–caspase-1 assembly. Mature IL-1β acts on granulosa IL-1R1 to suppress FSH-receptor signaling, aromatase and steroidogenesis, while recruiting and polarizing ovarian macrophages that deposit collagen and stiffen the stroma, mechanically impairing folliculogenesis and primordial follicle activation. Prediction: MCC950 or Nlrp3−/− in reproductively aged mice restores estrous cyclicity, AMH and ovulation rate and reduces ovarian collagen, with the effect reproduced by Il1r1 blockade and lost in mice with intact NLRP3 but blocked mtROS (mitoTEMPO) — establishing mtROS→NLRP3→IL-1β as the obligate relay rather than a parallel pathway.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Mitochondrial dysfunction in the oocyte is sensed and propagated outward to the surrounding somatic compartment: oocyte-derived mitochondrial stress signals transmit through the transzonal projections and gap junctions of the cumulus–oocyte complex, converting cumulus and mural granulosa cells into an inflammatory, senescence-like state. Ovarian decline is therefore a germline-initiated, soma-propagated inflammatory cascade. Mechanism: Impaired oxidative phosphorylation in the oocyte lowers NAD+/ATP and raises ROS and mitochondrial peptides/metabolites (succinate, itaconate shifts, mtDNA fragments), which pass through CX37/CX43 junctions and transzonal projections to granulosa cells. There they activate the integrated stress response (ATF4) and NF-κB, inducing SASP factors (IL-6, IL-8, MMPs) and a p16/p21 senescence program that degrades the follicle's support function and feeds inflammation back onto the oocyte. Prediction: Oocyte-restricted induction of mitochondrial dysfunction (e.g. Gdf9-Cre–driven Tfam or Opa1 deletion, or oocyte-targeted mtDNA mutator) produces inflammatory and senescence markers in adjacent granulosa cells before any oocyte-autonomous loss, and this transfer is abolished by connexin blockade or Gja1/Gja4 deletion while direct granulosa mitochondrial stress does not reproduce the same directional cascade.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42689491", "pmid": "42689491", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70700", "title": "In Vivo Base Editing Partially Rescues Bone Dysplasia in a Mouse Model of Hutchinson-Gilford Progeria Syndrome.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally demonstrates that correcting the causal mutation in an ageing-related progeroid disorder reduces its molecular pathology and partially restores skeletal function, with efficacy depending on treatment timing.", "background": "Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome is a rare genetic disorder characterized by accelerated, multisystem features of ageing. Progressive skeletal abnormalities are a prominent component of the disease in both patients and experimental models. These abnormalities involve impaired bone formation, remodeling, and mechanical integrity. It remained unclear whether established skeletal pathology could be meaningfully reversed in vivo and how strongly therapeutic efficacy would depend on the age at treatment.", "question": "Can in vivo correction of the HGPS-causing mutation rescue molecular, cellular, and structural defects in bone, and how does treatment timing affect efficacy?", "subject": "HGPS bone dysplasia", "finding": "Adenine base editing of the pathogenic LMNA variant reduced progerin expression, restored extracellular-matrix deposition and mineralization in progeroid osteoblasts, and partially rescued bone structure and physical properties in mice. In vivo correction was strongly age-dependent, with early postnatal delivery producing substantially greater editing and skeletal benefit than later treatment.", "key_points": [ "Correction of the pathogenic LMNA variant", "Reduced progerin transcripts and protein", "Improved osteoblast matrix deposition and mineralization", "Partial rescue of bone structure and physical properties", "Greater efficacy with early postnatal treatment" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Somatic base or prime editing that corrects the LMNA c.1824C>T mutation in bone tissue of HGPS mice will lower progerin transcript and protein in osteoblast-lineage cells and restore cortical and trabecular bone mass, microarchitecture and whole-bone mechanical strength toward wild-type values. The rescue will be proportional to the fraction of corrected alleles in the osteogenic compartment rather than to editing efficiency in other organs. Mechanism: Correcting the mutation removes the aberrant splice site, eliminating progerin synthesis in mesenchymal/osteoblast progenitors. Loss of farnesylated progerin restores nuclear-envelope integrity and lamin A/C-dependent mechanotransduction (LINC complex, emerin, SUN/nesprin), normalizing RUNX2/osterix-driven transcription and collagen matrix deposition, which in turn restores mineral apposition and bone material quality. Prediction: Per-animal correction frequency measured in sorted bone marrow stromal/osteoblast populations will correlate with micro-CT cortical thickness and three-point bending stiffness, while liver or heart editing frequency will not; mice with high bone editing but low systemic editing will still show skeletal rescue.", "strict": 1, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 4 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "HGPS bone fragility arises substantially from uncoupled remodeling with excessive osteoclast activity driven by progerin-expressing osteoblast-lineage cells, and correction rescues bone principally by normalizing the RANKL/OPG axis rather than by increasing osteoblast number. Mechanism: Progerin in osteocytes and osteoblasts raises RANKL and inflammatory cytokine output and lowers OPG and sclerostin regulation, recruiting osteoclasts and causing focal resorption. Genetic correction normalizes the osteocyte secretome, reducing osteoclastogenesis and restoring the formation–resorption balance. Prediction: Within weeks of correction, serum CTX and osteoclast surface fall before any rise in mineral apposition rate or osteoblast number, and bone RANKL/OPG mRNA ratio normalizes; an anti-resorptive given to uncorrected mice reproduces part of the micro-CT benefit but does not reproduce the normalization of collagen organization or matrix material properties seen after correction.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Mutation correction before the onset of radiographically detectable skeletal disease will prevent bone pathology almost completely, whereas the identical intervention delivered after structural deficits are established will halt progression and partially rebuild bone but will not fully normalize geometry or strength. Efficacy will therefore show a threshold dependence on treatment age rather than a smooth linear decline. Mechanism: Early correction acts on a still-intact progenitor pool and an unremodeled matrix, so normal modeling can proceed. Once progerin has driven progenitor exhaustion/senescence and produced irreversibly altered cortical geometry and hypermineralized or collagen-cross-link-abnormal matrix, correction restores cell function but remodeling cannot re-sculpt macroscopic shape (e.g., clavicular and rib thinning, acro-osteolysis-like resorption) within the animal's lifespan. Prediction: Matched cohorts treated at a pre-symptomatic versus an established-disease age will show equal normalization of molecular markers (progerin levels, osteogenic gene expression) but divergent structural outcomes: near-complete rescue early, and in the late group restoration of dynamic bone formation rate with only partial recovery of cortical area and failure load.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "A principal cause of HGPS bone loss is a progerin-driven shift of skeletal stem/stromal cells away from osteoblastogenesis toward adipogenic and senescent fates; in vivo correction restores this lineage balance, and the degree of restoration is limited by how much of the progenitor pool has already become senescent at the time of treatment. Mechanism: Progerin destabilizes heterochromatin (H3K9me3/H3K27me3 loss), activates cGAS–STING and p16/p21 programs, and biases PPARγ over RUNX2 in skeletal stem cells. Correction reinstates heterochromatin and lowers the senescence-associated secretory phenotype, allowing osteoprogenitor self-renewal and differentiation to resume. Cells already irreversibly senescent are not rescued and continue to suppress neighbors paracrinally. Prediction: Corrected mice show reduced marrow adiposity, restored CFU-osteoblast colony-forming capacity from bone marrow stromal cells, and fewer p16-positive marrow cells; combining late-stage correction with senolytic clearance yields greater structural rescue than correction alone, whereas adding senolytics to early correction adds nothing.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "Because growth-plate chondrocytes and periosteal cells are poorly transduced by systemic AAV at later ages, late correction will rescue remodeling-accessible trabecular bone and matrix quality but not longitudinal growth or periosteal expansion; efficacy timing is thus partly a delivery-tropism limitation rather than an intrinsic irreversibility of the cells. Mechanism: Editing reach depends on the proliferative and vascular state of each skeletal compartment. Early treatment coincides with an active growth plate and expanding periosteum with high vector uptake and subsequent clonal expansion of corrected cells; after growth-plate closure/slowing, corrected alleles cannot be amplified and cortical geometry is fixed. Prediction: Allele-correction frequency measured separately in growth-plate cartilage, periosteum, cortical bone and marrow stroma will fall with treatment age most steeply in cartilage/periosteum; delivering the editor locally (intra-osseous or periosteal injection, or a bone-targeted/osteotropic vector) at the late time point will recover a significant part of the lost cortical and length rescue, outperforming systemic delivery at the same age.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42696595", "pmid": "42696595", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeg8609", "title": "Natural variation in SL6 determines fatty acid components and seed longevity in rice.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-04", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal genetic mechanism controlling seed lifespan and age-related loss of viability.", "background": "Seeds progressively lose viability during storage, limiting crop propagation and the preservation of genetic resources. Longevity varies substantially among rice varieties and is influenced by both environmental conditions and inherited traits. Although several genomic regions associated with seed longevity had been identified, the causal genes and regulatory mechanisms underlying this variation remained poorly understood. It was also unclear whether naturally occurring longevity alleles could improve seed survival without compromising agronomic performance.", "question": "What genetic and molecular mechanism causes natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties?", "subject": "Rice seed longevity", "finding": "Natural variation at qSL6 causally determines rice seed longevity through SL6, a fatty acyl-ACP thioesterase that changes seed fatty-acid composition and increases resistance to oxidation. Desiccation-induced ABA signaling activates SL6 through VP1, while a virus-derived CT-rich element in the 5′ UTR of the ancestral SL6HHZ allele stabilizes its mRNA bidirectionally and contributes to longevity differences between indica and japonica rice.", "key_points": [ "qSL6 encodes the causal fatty acyl-ACP thioesterase SL6", "SL6 alters palmitic-acid synthesis and seed fatty-acid composition", "The ABA–VP1 module directly activates SL6 during seed desiccation", "A CT-rich 5′-UTR element stabilizes SL6HHZ mRNA", "Increasing SL6 expression improves seed longevity without major agronomic penalties" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "Natural variation in a gene controlling pericarp and seed-coat flavonoid or proanthocyanidin deposition (a Rc/Rd-type regulatory haplotype or a related MYB/bHLH factor) changes seed longevity. The mechanism is altered seed-coat permeability and antioxidant capacity. Mechanism: Seed coats rich in flavonoids or tannins exchange less oxygen and moisture and scavenge reactive oxygen species. This slows oxidative ageing of the embryo, which acts on the maternal tissue. Prediction: Reciprocal crosses show that longevity follows the maternal genotype. Long-lived alleles increase seed-coat flavonoid content and reduce oxygen uptake. Removing the hull or seed coat cancels the difference between alleles, and loss-of-function mutants of the regulator lose storability.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Seed longevity variation is controlled by a transcription factor of the seed-maturation network, such as a HSFA9/ABI3-DOG1-like regulator. Variation in its expression or activity determines how much heat-shock protein, LEA protein and raffinose-family oligosaccharide (RFO) the seed accumulates during late maturation. Mechanism: Stronger late-maturation activity of this regulator induces sHSPs, LEAs and RFO/galactinol synthesis. These stabilize the intracellular glassy state and protect macromolecules in the dry seed. The effect depends on ABA but can be separated from dormancy. Prediction: The long-lived allele raises sHSP, LEA and RFO transcripts and metabolites in mature seeds and raises the cytoplasmic glass-transition temperature. Mutating the regulator, or its downstream RFO synthase, eliminates the longevity gain. Dormancy and field performance can stay unchanged if the allele acts on the protective arm specifically.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "A natural allele of a protein-repair gene, PROTEIN L-ISOASPARTYL METHYLTRANSFERASE (OsPIMT1), extends seed longevity. It raises repair activity during storage and during early imbibition. Mechanism: Spontaneous isoaspartyl formation builds up in proteins of the dry seed and inactivates enzymes and chaperones needed for germination. Higher PIMT expression, or a more stable allele, repairs this damage and keeps the embryo proteome working. Prediction: Long-lived varieties carry PIMT1 alleles with higher expression or activity and show less isoaspartyl accumulation in aged embryos. Transferring the allele, or overexpressing it in a short-lived variety, increases germination after ageing. Knocking it out abolishes the advantage of the long-lived allele.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Natural variation in seed longevity among rice varieties is caused mainly by cis-regulatory polymorphisms in a seed-expressed lipoxygenase gene (OsLOX3/LOX2 family) under a major longevity QTL. Long-lived alleles reduce LOX expression in the embryo and aleurone, which slows lipid peroxidation during storage. Mechanism: LOX oxidizes polyunsaturated fatty acids in stored lipids and membranes into hydroperoxides and reactive aldehydes such as hexanal and MDA. These damage membranes, proteins and DNA, so the embryo gradually loses viability. Promoter or enhancer haplotypes that lower LOX transcription, or loss-of-function variants, reduce this oxidative damage. Prediction: Varieties with the long-lived haplotype show lower embryo LOX transcript levels and activity, and less hexanal and MDA after accelerated or natural ageing. Near-isogenic lines, promoter swaps and CRISPR knockout of LOX in a short-lived background should recover most of the QTL effect, with no penalty in yield, grain quality or dormancy. Changing other antioxidant genes in the interval should not reproduce the effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "A coding polymorphism in a tocopherol or other lipid-antioxidant biosynthetic gene (for example a VTE gene) or in a detoxifying aldehyde dehydrogenase (OsALDH7) explains variation in seed longevity among varieties. It does so by changing how well the embryo detoxifies lipid-derived reactive species. Mechanism: Higher tocopherol content, or a more active ALDH, removes lipid radicals and toxic aldehydes as they form during storage. This limits carbonylation of proteins and nucleic acids. Prediction: Long-lived varieties have more embryo tocopherol, or more ALDH activity, and fewer carbonylated proteins after ageing. Complementing a short-lived line with the long-lived allele restores storability. Supplying the downstream antioxidant chemically partly reproduces the phenotype.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42698274", "pmid": "42698274", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70666", "title": "Secreted Frizzled-Related Protein 2 (SFRP2) Induces Follistatin-Like 1 (FSTL1) to Regulate Dihydrotestosterone (DHT)-Induced Dermal Papilla Cell Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Senescence.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal molecular mechanism linking androgen exposure to mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and cellular senescence in an age-related hair-loss disorder.", "background": "Androgenetic alopecia is a common, progressive form of hair loss associated with genetic susceptibility and heightened follicular responses to dihydrotestosterone. Androgen exposure progressively impairs the cells that support follicle growth, contributing to follicular miniaturization and a shortened growth phase. Mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammation and cellular senescence have been implicated in this deterioration. However, the molecular mechanism connecting androgen signaling to these pathogenic cellular changes remained incompletely understood.", "question": "What molecular mechanism exacerbates dihydrotestosterone-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and senescence during androgenetic alopecia?", "subject": "Androgen-induced follicular senescence", "finding": "SFRP2 binds FSTL1 and increases its protein stability, establishing an SFRP2–FSTL1 axis that exacerbates DHT-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress, inflammation and senescence in dermal papilla cells. SFRP2 knockdown alleviated these defects and improved hair regeneration and follicle morphology, while FSTL1 knockdown counteracted the harmful effects of SFRP2 overexpression.", "key_points": [ "SFRP2 directly binds FSTL1", "SFRP2 promotes FSTL1 protein stability", "The SFRP2–FSTL1 axis worsens DHT-induced mitochondrial dysfunction and senescence", "FSTL1 depletion suppresses the effects of SFRP2 overexpression", "SFRP2 depletion improves hair regeneration in an AGA mouse model" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "DHT-damaged mitochondria leak mtDNA into the cytosol and activate cGAS–STING, converting a metabolic insult into a self-amplifying sterile inflammatory and senescent state in dermal papilla and perifollicular cells. Mechanism: mtROS-driven mPTP/BAX-BAK macropore opening releases mtDNA; cGAS–STING–TBK1–IRF3/NF-κB signaling produces type I interferon and SASP cytokines that act on neighboring follicle cells, suppressing their mitochondrial biogenesis and reinforcing ROS production — a paracrine senescence wave that explains progressive, patterned miniaturization rather than cell-autonomous loss. Prediction: STING or cGAS inhibition (H-151, knockdown) in DHT-treated cells and ex vivo follicles blocks the interferon signature, SASP and senescence without preventing the initial ΔΨm drop; cytosolic mtDNA and p-TBK1 are detectable in DHT-treated cells and elevated in balding scalp, and conditioned medium transfers senescence in a STING-dependent way.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "DHT reprograms follicular energy metabolism by inducing PDK-mediated inhibition of pyruvate dehydrogenase and suppressing lactate/glycolytic support of the hair follicle stem cell niche; the forced shift away from the follicle's normal glycolysis–lactate program starves anagen and generates electron-transport backpressure with excess ROS. Mechanism: AR upregulates PDK1/4 and downregulates LDHA and MPC-dependent substrate handling, lowering acetyl-CoA and NAD+/NADH balance. Reduced NAD+ impairs SIRT1/SIRT3 deacetylation of ETC and antioxidant enzymes (SOD2 hyperacetylation), raising superoxide and activating p53–p21 senescence; the lactate deficit simultaneously removes the signal that activates quiescent hair follicle stem cells. Prediction: NAD+ precursors (NMN/NR) or PDK inhibition (dichloroacetate), and restoring lactate, normalize SOD2 acetylation, mtROS and SA-β-gal in DHT-treated cells and prolong anagen in ex vivo follicles, while SIRT3 knockdown abolishes that rescue; metabolomics of balding dermal papilla shows low NAD+/NADH and low lactate versus occipital controls.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "DHT–androgen receptor signaling in dermal papilla cells transcriptionally induces a mitochondrial fission/mitophagy-blocking program (DRP1 up, OPA1/MFN2 and PINK1–Parkin flux down), so damaged mitochondria accumulate instead of being cleared; this accumulation is the step that converts androgen exposure into sustained ROS, oxidative damage and p16/p21 senescence. Mechanism: Ligand-bound AR occupies androgen response elements in the DNM1L promoter and represses PINK1/PRKN-dependent mitophagy, producing fragmented, depolarized mitochondria with reduced complex I activity and elevated mitochondrial superoxide; persistent mtROS oxidizes mtDNA, triggers a DNA-damage response and locks cells into senescence with a growth-factor-poor SASP that shortens anagen. Prediction: In DHT-treated human dermal papilla cells, Mdivi-1 or DRP1 knockdown — or forced PINK1/Parkin expression — restores membrane potential and abolishes the rise in mitoSOX, γH2AX and SA-β-gal, whereas general cytosolic antioxidants (NAC) blunt ROS but not the fission phenotype; AR ChIP shows DHT-dependent AR binding at DNM1L.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "A specific DHT-inducible secreted or intracellular amplifier protein (e.g. a stress-response factor such as RBP4/SFRP2/DKK1-class or a cytokine like IL-6/TGF-β1) acts as the obligate intermediate that exacerbates DHT's mitochondrial and senescence effects; DHT alone is weakly damaging, and the amplifier is required for the full phenotype. Mechanism: AR activation raises transcription of the amplifier; the secreted factor acts autocrine/paracrine on dermal papilla and outer root sheath cells, suppressing Wnt/β-catenin and PGC-1α-driven mitochondrial biogenesis while activating NF-κB, which raises NOX4 and inflammatory ROS. The resulting bioenergetic deficit plus redox stress drives p53–p21 senescence and premature catagen. Prediction: Neutralizing antibody or knockdown of the amplifier in DHT-treated cells restores OCR, PGC-1α and hair-shaft elongation in ex vivo follicle culture, while adding recombinant amplifier alone (no DHT) reproduces mitochondrial dysfunction and senescence; amplifier levels are elevated in balding versus occipital scalp dermal papilla.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "DHT exacerbates follicular damage by disabling the NRF2 antioxidant arm — AR drives KEAP1 stabilization and NRF2 degradation/epigenetic silencing — so physiological mitochondrial ROS that would normally be buffered instead accumulate and cause senescence. Mechanism: AR–KEAP1 cooperation and promoter hypermethylation of NFE2L2 lower HO-1, NQO1, GCLC and GPX4, depleting glutathione; low GPX4 permits lipid peroxidation of mitochondrial membranes (a ferroptosis-adjacent state), impairing ETC supercomplexes and raising mtROS further in a feed-forward loop that terminates in stable senescence. Prediction: NRF2 activators (sulforaphane, dimethyl fumarate) or NFE2L2 overexpression fully rescue DHT-induced ΔΨm loss, 4-HNE adducts and SA-β-gal, whereas in NFE2L2-knockout dermal papilla cells DHT adds no further damage (epistasis); balding scalp shows reduced nuclear NRF2 with normal total AR.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42717261", "pmid": "42717261", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70706", "title": "NAD+ Metabolic Reprogramming Drives CD8+ T Cells Senescence and Exacerbates Ulcerative Colitis.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific metabolic and innate immune signaling mechanism that drives cellular senescence and worsens an inflammatory disease.", "background": "Cellular senescence can develop in immune populations and alter tissue function through persistent inflammatory and dysfunctional states. Such immunosenescence has been associated with chronic inflammatory disorders, but whether senescent immune cells directly cause disease progression has remained uncertain. Metabolic disruption and mitochondrial damage are recognized triggers of senescence, including through the abnormal release of mitochondrial components into the cytosol. The causal sequence connecting these processes to intestinal inflammation and treatment resistance was unresolved.", "question": "What mechanism induces pathogenic immune-cell senescence in ulcerative colitis, and does this senescence causally exacerbate the disease?", "subject": "Senescence in ulcerative colitis", "finding": "NAD+ metabolic dysregulation causes mitochondrial dysfunction and cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage, activating cGAS-STING signaling to drive CD8+ T-cell senescence. These senescent cells exacerbate colitis, while systemic senolytic treatment reduces disease severity; their associated signature also predicts severe disease and non-response to biologic therapy.", "key_points": [ "NAD+ metabolic dysregulation initiates the process", "Mitochondrial dysfunction causes cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage", "cGAS-STING activation drives CD8+ T-cell senescence", "Senescent CD8+ T cells causally exacerbate colitis", "Senolytic clearance attenuates disease severity" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "In ulcerative colitis, metabolic stress in mucosal T cells causes mitochondrial DNA to leak into the cytosol, activating the cGAS–STING pathway and driving these cells into a senescent, SASP-secreting state that worsens colitis. Blocking mtDNA release or STING signaling should prevent senescence and attenuate disease. Mechanism: Inflamed mucosal metabolic conditions damage mitochondria in lamina propria T cells; mitochondrial permeability transition/VDAC- or BAX/BAK-dependent pore formation releases mtDNA into the cytosol; cGAS detects it, STING–TBK1–IRF3/NF-κB signaling plus p53/p21 engagement enforces a stable cell-cycle arrest with a pro-inflammatory secretome (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF, chemokines) that recruits and activates neutrophils and macrophages, sustaining epithelial injury. Prediction: In colitis models, T-cell-specific deletion of Cgas or Sting1 (or mtDNA depletion/TFAM-dependent packaging rescue, or inhibition of the mPTP/VDAC oligomerization) reduces p16/p21-positive senescent mucosal T cells and SASP cytokines and lessens histological colitis, whereas deleting the same genes in epithelium or myeloid cells does not reproduce the senescence rescue; cytosolic mtDNA is measurable in sorted UC patient mucosal T cells and correlates with their senescence score.", "strict": 1, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 4 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Senescent immune cells cause resistance to anti-inflammatory therapy in UC: their SASP maintains an inflammatory circuit that is not dependent on the single cytokine being blocked. Adding senescence-targeting treatment restores responsiveness. Mechanism: The SASP is multi-cytokine and self-reinforcing (IL-6/STAT3, IL-1β, TNF, chemokine-driven neutrophil recruitment, and local paracrine spread of senescence to neighboring immune and stromal cells). Blocking one node (TNF, IL-12/23, JAK partially) leaves the rest of the circuit intact, so inflammation persists; removing the senescent source collapses the whole circuit. Prediction: Pre-treatment mucosal senescence burden (p16/p21-high immune cells, SASP transcriptional signature) is higher in future non-responders to anti-TNF and stratifies response better than baseline CRP/histology; in a colitis model refractory to anti-TNF, combining anti-TNF with senolytics or a STING inhibitor restores remission whereas either alone does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Senescent immune cells are not bystanders but causal drivers of UC severity: their selective removal is sufficient to improve colitis. Senolytic clearance or genetic ablation of p16-high immune cells will reduce inflammation independently of any effect on epithelial cells. Mechanism: A small population of senescent mucosal lymphocytes/myeloid cells acts as a persistent inflammatory hub; because senescent cells are apoptosis-resistant (BCL-2/BCL-xL, PI3K–AKT survival dependence), they accumulate and continuously emit SASP factors that amplify local immune activation and block epithelial regeneration. Eliminating them removes the amplifier. Prediction: In INK-ATTAC/p16-3MR mice (or with dasatinib+quercetin/navitoclax), induced clearance of p16-positive cells after colitis onset lowers colonic SASP cytokines, restores crypt regeneration and reduces disease activity; adoptive transfer of in vitro-senesced T cells into recipients worsens colitis in a dose-dependent manner, while transfer of equal numbers of non-senescent cells does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Paracrine spread is what makes immune senescence pathogenic in UC: SASP and mtDNA-containing extracellular vesicles from senescent immune cells transmit senescence to epithelial and stromal cells, converting a focal defect into field-wide barrier failure. Mechanism: Senescent mucosal immune cells release IL-6/IL-1β, TGF-β and ROS plus extracellular vesicles carrying oxidized mtDNA; neighbouring intestinal epithelial stem cells and fibroblasts take these up, activate their own cGAS–STING/NF-κB and p21 programs, arrest proliferation, lose regenerative capacity and secrete further SASP, producing an expanding senescent field that maps to the contiguous proximal spread characteristic of UC. Prediction: Co-culture or organoid exposure to senescent-immune-cell conditioned medium or isolated EVs induces p21/SASP and impairs organoid regeneration, and this is blocked by EV depletion, DNase treatment of EV cargo, IL-6R/IL-1R blockade, or epithelial Sting1 knockout; in patient biopsies, senescence markers in epithelium show spatial gradients anchored to clusters of senescent immune cells rather than being uniformly distributed.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of mitophagy/mitochondrial quality control in UC immune cells is the upstream lesion that permits mtDNA release and senescence. Restoring mitophagy prevents pathogenic immunosenescence. Mechanism: Inflammatory and metabolic stress, together with UC risk-gene variants affecting autophagy/mitophagy (e.g., PINK1–PRKN axis, LRRK2, autophagy effectors), impairs clearance of depolarized mitochondria; damaged organelles accumulate, raise mROS, oxidize and fragment mtDNA, and provide the cytosolic ligand load that triggers innate sensing and senescence programs. Prediction: Sorted UC mucosal immune cells show reduced mitophagic flux and accumulation of depolarized mitochondria that quantitatively predicts senescence markers; Pink1/Prkn-deficient immune compartments develop more senescent cells and worse colitis, and pharmacologic mitophagy induction (urolithin A, spermidine, NAD+ precursors) reduces cytosolic mtDNA, senescence burden and colitis severity, with the benefit abolished in Cgas-null background.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42723546", "pmid": "42723546", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70701", "title": "The Secretome Derived From Human Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cells Improves Skin Photoaging by Enhancing Mitophagy to Inhibit the cGAS-STING Pathway.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal mechanism linking mitochondrial quality control, sterile inflammation, cellular senescence, and UV-induced skin ageing.", "background": "Chronic ultraviolet exposure causes skin photoaging characterized by impaired barrier function, collagen loss, cellular senescence, and persistent inflammation. Damaged cells can accumulate dysfunctional organelles and release intracellular danger signals that sustain sterile inflammatory responses. Regenerative cell-free therapies have shown potential for repairing aged or injured tissues, but their activity can involve many distinct biological processes. The causal mechanism by which such therapies might suppress photoaging-associated senescence and inflammation remained unresolved.", "question": "Can a cell-free regenerative treatment alleviate UV-induced skin photoaging, and which causal intracellular mechanism mediates its protective effects?", "subject": "Skin photoaging mechanism", "finding": "Human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell secretome protects against UV-induced photoaging by enhancing mitophagy, which clears damaged mitochondria and reduces cytosolic mitochondrial DNA leakage. This suppresses cGAS-STING signaling and downstream inflammatory cytokines; mitophagy inhibition abolishes protection, while STING inhibition restores it.", "key_points": [ "The secretome alleviates UV-induced photoaging and cellular senescence", "Enhanced mitophagy removes damaged mitochondria", "Reduced mitochondrial DNA leakage suppresses cGAS-STING signaling", "Mitophagy inhibition abolishes the protective effect", "STING inhibition rescues protection despite blocked mitophagy" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "The protective effect is mediated by preventing release of mitochondrial DNA into the cytosol and thereby silencing cGAS–STING signalling. Cell-free treatment keeps mitochondrial membrane integrity intact after UV, so no cytosolic mtDNA accumulates to trigger the type-I interferon and senescence-associated secretory programme. Mechanism: UV-induced mitochondrial permeability (VDAC/BAX macropore) leaks mtDNA to the cytosol, activating cGAS, STING, TBK1 and IRF3 plus NF-kB — the canonical driver of SASP in photoaged skin. The secretome suppresses macropore formation and/or accelerates mtDNA degradation, collapsing the interferon-stimulated gene signature and IL-6/IL-8/CXCL10 output; senescence markers fall as a downstream consequence. Prediction: Cytosolic mtDNA (digitonin fractionation, anti-dsDNA puncta) and phospho-TBK1/phospho-IRF3 rise with UV and are normalized by treatment; STING-knockout or H-151-treated skin shows no additional benefit from the preparation (epistasis), whereas a mitophagy-centred alternative would still show measurable benefit in STING-null tissue.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "The dominant mechanism is Nrf2-mediated redox reprogramming: the cell-free preparation stabilizes NRF2 by disrupting KEAP1 binding, raising NQO1/HO-1/glutathione capacity so that UV-generated ROS never reach the threshold required to induce DNA-damage-response-driven senescence or NF-kB inflammation. Mechanism: UV ROS cause oxidative DNA lesions and persistent γH2AX foci that engage ATM-p53-p21 senescence and oxidize signalling proteins that activate AP-1/MMP-1. Secretome cargo (peroxiredoxins, thioredoxin, electrophilic lipid mediators, miR-NRF2 regulators) shifts the KEAP1–NRF2 equilibrium, restoring GSH/GSSG ratio; reduced ROS lowers both organelle damage and inflammatory tone, making improved mitochondrial/lysosomal function a consequence rather than the cause. Prediction: NRF2 target genes rise within hours of treatment and precede any change in autophagic flux; NRF2 knockout or ML385 abolishes protection, whereas organelle-clearance inhibitors (bafilomycin, Mdivi-1) do not. A cell-free fraction depleted of antioxidant proteins loses efficacy despite retaining vesicle miRNA content.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Protection operates through reactivation of bulk autophagic–lysosomal flux via TFEB nuclear translocation, not through mitochondria-selective clearance. By inhibiting mTORC1 and dephosphorylating TFEB, the treatment restores lysosomal biogenesis, clears UV-induced protein aggregates and lipofuscin, and thereby reverses senescence and barrier loss. Mechanism: Chronic UV hyperactivates mTORC1 and suppresses TFEB, collapsing lysosomal capacity; undegraded oxidized proteins and crosslinked ECM fragments accumulate, drive ER stress and p53/p21 senescence, and impair filaggrin/loricrin-dependent barrier maturation. The secretome lowers mTORC1 activity, drives TFEB into the nucleus, raises CLEAR-network gene expression and restores degradative throughput. Prediction: TFEB nuclear fraction, CLEAR-gene panel and cathepsin activity increase with treatment; TFEB knockdown abolishes both the anti-senescence and the barrier (TEWL, filaggrin) benefit, while mitophagy-specific reporters show no selective change beyond the general flux increase — distinguishing it from the PINK1/Parkin hypothesis.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "The causal node is inhibition of NLRP3 inflammasome assembly in UV-exposed keratinocytes. The cell-free therapy prevents lysosomal destabilization and K+ efflux after UV, so ASC specks do not form, caspase-1 is not cleaved, and IL-1β/IL-18 release that otherwise propagates paracrine senescence is abolished. Mechanism: UVB causes lysosomal membrane permeabilization and cathepsin B release, licensing NLRP3 oligomerization; mature IL-1β then drives a feed-forward paracrine senescence loop in neighbouring fibroblasts and sustains MMP expression. Secretome cargo (e.g. miRNAs targeting NLRP3/TXNIP, or anti-inflammatory lipids) blocks the licensing step, cutting caspase-1 activity and gasdermin-D-dependent danger-signal release. Prediction: Treatment reduces ASC-speck-positive cells, cleaved caspase-1 and secreted IL-1β before any change in p16/p21 appears (temporal precedence); IL-1 receptor blockade or Nlrp3-/- mice phenocopy the treatment and show no further improvement when it is added. A mitochondrial-quality-control alternative predicts benefit persisting in Nlrp3-/- skin.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Topical or intradermal application of a cell-free regenerative preparation (mesenchymal stromal cell-derived small extracellular vesicles / conditioned-medium secretome) alleviates UV-induced photoaging primarily by restoring mitophagy in keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts. Restored PINK1/Parkin-dependent clearance of UV-damaged mitochondria prevents accumulation of depolarized organelles, thereby blocking senescence and sterile inflammation. Mechanism: UV irradiation depolarizes mitochondria and simultaneously blunts autophagic flux, so damaged mitochondria persist. The cell-free preparation delivers/induces PINK1 stabilization and Parkin recruitment, increasing LC3-II-tagged mitophagosome formation and lysosomal delivery; removal of dysfunctional mitochondria lowers mitochondrial ROS, preserves ATP, prevents p16/p21-driven senescence and reduces NF-kB-driven cytokine output, with secondary recovery of collagen I via reduced MMP-1/MMP-3. Prediction: Protection is abolished when mitophagy is blocked — in PINK1- or Parkin-silenced cells, or with Mdivi-1/bafilomycin or mito-QC/mt-Keima reporters showing no flux increase — while generic antioxidant capacity of the preparation is unchanged; conversely mitophagy inducers (urolithin A) reproduce the benefit. Alternatives predicting barrier-first or purely paracrine-growth-factor action would retain protection in PINK1-null skin.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42725837", "pmid": "42725837", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70711", "title": "Transmembrane Protein PTCHD4 Is a Novel Regulator of Cellular Senescence and Age-Related Pathologies.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism linking a previously uncharacterized regulator to cellular senescence, age-related dysfunction, and pulmonary fibrosis.", "background": "Cellular senescence is a stable stress response that contributes to tissue dysfunction, chronic inflammation, and multiple age-related diseases. Senescent cells accumulate with age, and experimentally reducing their abundance or activity can improve health-related outcomes in animal models. Transmembrane proteins can regulate intracellular signaling networks involved in stress responses and cell-fate decisions, but many remain poorly characterized in ageing. Identifying upstream regulators that causally control senescence could reveal therapeutic targets for age-associated disorders.", "question": "Does the transmembrane protein investigated in this study causally regulate cellular senescence and age-related tissue pathology, and through what signaling mechanism?", "subject": "Regulation of cellular senescence", "finding": "PTCHD4 promotes cellular senescence and age-associated tissue dysfunction by enhancing AKT signaling. PTCHD4 deficiency suppressed senescence, alleviated ageing-related phenotypes and bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice, and its anti-senescent effect was reversed by restoring AKT signaling.", "key_points": [ "PTCHD4 causally promotes cellular senescence", "PTCHD4 deficiency improves ageing-related phenotypes and median lifespan in mice", "PTCHD4 deficiency reduces pulmonary fibrosis and preserves lung function", "AKT activation mediates the pro-senescent effect of PTCHD4" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "The protein regulates senescence by controlling mitochondrial-lysosomal homeostasis rather than by classical receptor signaling, and senescence is secondary to a metabolic and mitophagy defect. Mechanism: The protein resides in mitochondria-associated ER membranes or the lysosomal membrane and governs calcium transfer or ion/metabolite flux. Altered levels impair mitophagy and mitochondrial membrane potential, raising mitochondrial ROS and cytosolic mtDNA, which activates cGAS-STING-TBK1 and AMPK-dependent arrest. Prediction: Perturbation changes mitochondrial calcium/ROS and mtDNA release before any p21/p16 or SASP induction; mitochondrial ROS scavengers, mtDNA depletion, or STING loss abolish the senescence phenotype while leaving the protein's localization and abundance unchanged.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "The transmembrane protein acts as a cell-autonomous driver of senescence: its expression rises in aged and stressed tissue, and raising it is sufficient to push proliferating cells into a stable senescent arrest, while deleting it blocks senescence entry and reduces age-related tissue pathology. Mechanism: Stress-induced upregulation of the protein at the plasma membrane raises its local surface density, enabling ligand-independent clustering and constitutive assembly of an intracellular adaptor complex. The signal converges on NF-kB/p38 to sustain the SASP while p53-p21 and p16-Rb enforce the arrest, creating a feed-forward loop in which SASP cytokines further induce the protein. Prediction: Overexpression in young primary cells with intact p53 produces SA-beta-gal positivity, p21/p16 induction and SASP secretion without added stress, and conditional knockout in an aged or progeroid mouse lowers p16 burden and improves tissue histology and function; a signaling-dead point mutant that still reaches the membrane fails to do either, excluding mere protein-burden or ER-stress effects.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "The protein drives senescence by acting as a co-receptor that amplifies TGF-beta/SMAD signaling, making it a licensing factor for paracrine senescence spread in aged tissue. Mechanism: The protein binds TGF-beta family receptors in the membrane, stabilizing receptor complexes and prolonging SMAD2/3 phosphorylation. Sustained SMAD activity induces p15/p21 and CDKN2B-dependent arrest and amplifies secondary senescence in neighboring cells exposed to TGF-beta from primary senescent cells. Prediction: Conditioned medium from senescent cells induces far less secondary senescence in protein-null recipients, and a TGF-beta receptor kinase inhibitor or SMAD3 deletion fully rescues senescence caused by protein overexpression; proximity-ligation shows protein-receptor association increasing with age.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "The causal unit is not the full-length membrane protein but its cleaved ectodomain or intracellular fragment: regulated proteolysis converts it into a diffusible senescence signal, so blocking cleavage uncouples senescence from protein abundance. Mechanism: An ADAM/MMP sheddase and gamma-secretase-like activity process the protein; the released ectodomain acts on neighboring cells through a surface receptor, while the intracellular domain translocates to the nucleus to co-activate senescence genes. Age-related sheddase activation therefore converts a neutral membrane protein into a systemic senescence-propagating ligand. Prediction: Soluble ectodomain rises in aged plasma/tissue and induces senescence in naive cells, while a non-cleavable knock-in mouse expressing normal full-length protein levels is protected from senescence accumulation and age-related pathology; sheddase inhibition reproduces the protection.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "The protein is a senescence brake rather than a driver: it normally restrains stress signaling, and its age-related loss from the membrane de-represses senescence. Restoring it suppresses senescence and age-related pathology. Mechanism: The protein sequesters a kinase or adaptor (e.g. a MAP3K, IRAK, or STING-pathway component) at the membrane in an inactive state. Age-associated transcriptional decline or proteolytic shedding releases the partner, permitting chronic innate-immune/stress kinase activation and SASP output. Prediction: Knockdown accelerates senescence under mild oxidative stress and increases SASP, whereas AAV re-expression in aged tissue lowers p16/p21 and improves function; co-immunoprecipitation shows age-dependent loss of the protein-partner complex, and a partner-binding-deficient mutant cannot rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 0 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42736449", "pmid": "42736449", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01207-x", "title": "A microprotein atlas of the human frontal cortex in Alzheimer's disease.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally links loss of a specific previously unannotated microprotein to impaired mitochondrial respiration, providing a mechanistic finding relevant to Alzheimer's disease.", "background": "Alzheimer's disease involves progressive neuronal dysfunction accompanied by broad molecular changes in the brain. Conventional genome annotation does not capture every translated product, leaving potentially functional proteins uncharacterized. Disease-associated changes in these overlooked products may occur independently of established proteins encoded at the same genomic loci. It remained unclear whether any such product contributes directly to cellular dysfunction in Alzheimer's disease.", "question": "Can an unannotated protein product that is altered in Alzheimer's disease causally regulate cellular function relevant to disease pathology?", "subject": "Alzheimer's-associated microprotein function", "finding": "A small open reading frame at the MKKS locus encodes a 63-amino-acid microprotein that is the locus's predominant translation product and is downregulated in Alzheimer's disease. Experimental loss of this microprotein impairs mitochondrial respiration in microglia, supporting a causal role in microglial bioenergetics.", "key_points": [ "63-amino-acid microprotein encoded at the MKKS locus", "Predominant translation product of the locus", "Downregulated in Alzheimer's disease", "Its loss impairs microglial mitochondrial respiration" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "An unannotated protein product from a circRNA or retained-intron transcript is lost in Alzheimer's disease and normally functions as a chaperone-like safeguard against protein aggregation; its loss causally increases aggregate burden. Mechanism: The product binds exposed hydrophobic segments on misfolding clients and hands them to HSP70/autophagy receptors. Its depletion lets amyloidogenic and RNA-binding-protein clients accumulate, triggering stress-granule persistence and inclusion formation. Prediction: Loss-of-function in human neurons increases insoluble proteome load and stress-granule half-life, and recombinant microprotein suppresses in vitro aggregation kinetics of client substrates in a concentration-dependent manner that a scrambled peptide of identical composition does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "A microprotein translated from a small ORF within a lncRNA or 5' uORF is depleted in Alzheimer's disease neurons, and this loss causally impairs mitochondrial respiration independently of any annotated protein at the same locus. Mechanism: The microprotein localizes to the inner mitochondrial membrane and stabilizes assembly of respiratory complex I/IV or ATP synthase dimers. Depletion lowers ATP output and raises mitochondrial ROS, which degrades synaptic maintenance in high-demand neurons. Prediction: CRISPR knockout of only the sORF start codon (leaving the host transcript and any overlapping annotated ORF intact) reduces oxygen consumption rate and complex activity in neurons, and re-expression of the microprotein cDNA from a separate locus rescues it; knockdown of the host lncRNA by itself does not reproduce the defect.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "A disease-upregulated microprotein encoded in a primate-specific noncoding transcript acts in microglia to sustain a pro-inflammatory, phagocytosis-deficient state, causally worsening amyloid plaque clearance. Mechanism: The microprotein interacts with an innate-immune signaling scaffold (e.g., TRAF/NF-κB or NLRP3 adaptor), lowering the threshold for inflammasome activation and shifting microglia away from a clearance-competent program. Prediction: In human iPSC-derived microglia, sORF-specific knockout lowers IL-1β release and restores Aβ uptake without changing host-transcript levels; overexpression reproduces the deficit and is abolished by a start-codon mutant that keeps RNA structure intact.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "A microprotein encoded by an unannotated ORF acts as a regulatory subunit of a synaptic ion transporter or calcium handling complex; its Alzheimer-associated change causally dysregulates neuronal calcium homeostasis and excitability. Mechanism: By analogy to known single-pass regulators of SERCA and SOCE, the microprotein binds a transporter (SERCA2, MCU, or STIM/ORAI) and tunes its Vmax. Altered stoichiometry in disease shifts ER/mitochondrial calcium flux, producing hyperexcitability and calpain activation. Prediction: Patch-clamp and genetically encoded calcium imaging show that start-codon knockout shifts ER calcium load and evoked transient decay kinetics, co-immunoprecipitation confirms direct transporter binding, and a point mutation in the predicted transmembrane interaction interface abolishes both effects while preserving expression.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "An unannotated protein product translated from an alternative reading frame of an AD risk gene accumulates in Alzheimer's brain and causally promotes tau hyperphosphorylation and aggregation. Mechanism: The alt-frame product binds a kinase/phosphatase regulatory subunit (e.g., PP2A B55 or GSK3β), biasing the balance toward net tau phosphorylation, seeding fibril formation and spread. Prediction: Frame-specific overexpression (codon-optimized, silent in the canonical frame) increases AT8/PHF1 tau phospho-epitopes and seeding competence in a FRET biosensor assay, while matched overexpression of the canonical protein does not; frame-selective antibody depletion in AD lysates reduces seeding.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42744804", "pmid": "42744804", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-76728-5", "title": "Microglia deploy TAM receptors to kill motor neurons in a mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-15", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally identifies a causal mechanism that accelerates motor-neuron loss and shortens lifespan in an age-related neurodegenerative disease model.", "background": "Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterized by motor-neuron loss, neuromuscular denervation and premature death. Inherited SOD1 mutations cause some forms of ALS and are widely used to model disease progression in mice. Degeneration in these models involves interactions between vulnerable neurons and surrounding cells, but it remained unclear which responses actively cause neuronal death rather than merely accompany it. Identifying causal mechanisms could reveal ways to preserve neuromuscular function and extend survival.", "question": "What disease-associated mechanism actively eliminates motor neurons and accelerates mortality in SOD1G93A mice?", "subject": "Motor-neuron elimination in ALS", "finding": "Microglial Axl and Mer receptors recognize elevated phosphatidylserine on SOD1G93A motor neurons and drive their phagocytic elimination while the neurons are still alive. Germline or microglia-restricted inactivation of Axl and Mertk preserves cholinergic motor neurons and neuromuscular synapses and extends lifespan in SOD1G93A mice.", "key_points": [ "Microglia phagocytically kill living motor neurons", "Axl and Mer are required for this elimination", "Motor-neuron phosphatidylserine provides the eat-me signal", "Axl/Mertk inactivation preserves neurons and neuromuscular synapses", "Blocking the mechanism extends lifespan" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Reactive microglia actively engulf and remove viable motor-neuron somata and synapses in SOD1G93A spinal cord via complement tagging, converting a protective surveillance response into the proximate cause of neuron elimination. Blocking the complement–phagocytic arm should preserve motor neurons and extend survival. Mechanism: Mutant SOD1 stress induces neuronal/astrocytic C1q and C3 deposition on motor-neuron membranes and NMJ terminals; CR3/C3aR-bearing microglia recognize these opsonins and phagocytose still-functional neuronal material, producing denervation and somatic loss before intrinsic cell-death pathways would occur. Prediction: Microglia-specific deletion of CR3/C3aR or C1q/C3 knockout (or anti-C1q antibody) increases surviving large motor neurons and NMJ innervation and delays endpoint, while leaving mutant SOD1 aggregate burden and intrinsic apoptotic markers unchanged — distinguishing active removal from passive debris clearance.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "Peripheral nerve/Schwann-cell and skeletal-muscle responses initiate the lesion: a myofiber- and terminal-Schwann-cell-driven denervation program removes the NMJ first, and muscle-derived retrograde toxicity then condemns the motor neuron and causes death from respiratory failure. Mechanism: Mutant SOD1 in muscle elevates oxidative stress, activates the muscle atrophy/denervation transcriptional program (MuRF1, HDAC4, myogenin) and alters agrin/MuSK and neurotrophic support; terminal Schwann cells fail to maintain or actively retract endplates, so synapse loss precedes and triggers retrograde axon dieback and somatic loss, with diaphragm denervation setting the time of death. Prediction: Muscle-restricted correction (mutant SOD1 knockdown in myofibers, HDAC4 deletion, or MuSK/agrin or neurotrophin-3 overexpression at the endplate) preserves NMJ innervation and extends survival, and electrophysiology shows endplate failure precedes any somatic marker; a pure CNS-origin model predicts no benefit from muscle-only intervention.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Adaptive immunity actively eliminates motor neurons: clonally expanded CD8+ T cells recruited to the spinal cord recognize MHC-I-presenting motor neurons and kill them, accelerating paralysis and death. Mechanism: Interferon signaling in mutant SOD1 spinal cord upregulates MHC class I on motor neurons; infiltrating CD8+ cytotoxic T lymphocytes engage these neurons and deliver perforin/granzyme- and Fas-mediated killing, while regulatory T-cell decline removes the brake on this attack. Prediction: CD8+ T-cell depletion or motor-neuron-specific MHC-I (B2m/H2-Kb) deletion reduces motor-neuron loss and prolongs survival, and Treg transfer does the same; by contrast, if T cells only accompany degeneration, CD8 depletion would alter infiltrate counts without changing neuron number or lifespan.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "A cell-intrinsic, denervation-triggered axonal death program (SARM1-dependent NAD+ collapse) is the active executioner: motor axons self-destruct from the NMJ backwards, and this dying-back program, not somatic apoptosis, sets the pace of paralysis and death. Mechanism: Mitochondrial dysfunction and loss of NMNAT2 transport in mutant SOD1 axons activate the NADase SARM1, depleting axonal NAD+/ATP, causing Ca2+ influx, calpain activation and terminal fragmentation; retrograde signaling (DLK/JNK) then condemns the soma. Prediction: SARM1 knockout or axonal NAD+ restoration in SOD1G93A mice preserves NMJ innervation and motor-unit number and extends survival, whereas caspase-3 inhibition or Bax deletion delays somatic loss without preserving innervation or lifespan — dissociating axonal execution from somatic apoptosis.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Non-cell-autonomous astrocyte toxicity drives motor-neuron death: mutant SOD1 astrocytes actively kill neurons through secreted/converted lipid and loss of glutamate buffering, rather than failing to support them. Mechanism: SOD1G93A astrocytes become reactive and both lose EAAT2/GLT-1 (causing glutamate excitotoxicity through Ca2+-permeable AMPA receptors on motor neurons) and secrete toxic saturated lipids/oxidized cholesterol esters that trigger neuronal death; removing mutant SOD1 or reactivity transcription programs selectively from astrocytes rescues neurons. Prediction: Astrocyte-restricted excision of mutant SOD1 (GFAP-Cre) or astrocyte-specific restoration of GLT-1 slows disease progression and motor-neuron loss even with unchanged neuronal mutant-SOD1 expression; conditioned medium from mutant astrocytes kills wild-type motor neurons, and the toxicity is abolished by blocking the implicated lipid synthesis enzyme.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42749700", "pmid": "42749700", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-76789-6", "title": "HMGA1-HP1β axis regulates premature aging in Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome through chromatin remodeling.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-19", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal chromatin-regulatory mechanism that suppresses cellular senescence and extends lifespan in a mouse model of premature ageing.", "background": "Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome is a rare genetic disorder characterized by accelerated ageing and markedly shortened lifespan. Cells affected by the disease develop nuclear abnormalities, loss of chromatin organization, and premature senescence. Senescent cells can reinforce tissue dysfunction by releasing pro-inflammatory factors collectively known as the senescence-associated secretory phenotype. The molecular mechanisms connecting altered nuclear architecture to this secretory state remained incompletely understood, limiting the development of mechanism-based treatments.", "question": "What molecular mechanism links disrupted chromatin regulation to cellular senescence in Hutchinson–Gilford progeria syndrome, and can targeting that mechanism ameliorate disease phenotypes and extend lifespan?", "subject": "Progeria senescence mechanism", "finding": "HMGA1 recruits the deubiquitinase USP7 to stabilize HP1β, which reduces chromatin accessibility at ANGPTL2 and suppresses senescence-associated secretory factors, thereby alleviating HGPS cellular senescence. An HMGA1-derived peptide, UHP, prevents HP1β degradation, reduces senescence, and significantly extends the lifespan of LmnaG609G/G609G mice.", "key_points": [ "HMGA1 stabilizes HP1β through USP7 recruitment", "HP1β closes chromatin at ANGPTL2", "ANGPTL2 and SASP expression are suppressed", "The effect on senescence depends on HP1β", "UHP reduces senescence and extends progeria-mouse lifespan" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Chromatin disorganisation in HGPS causes aberrant, DNA-damage-dependent nuclear export of a chromatin-bound kinase (DNA-PK/cGAS-adjacent pathway) that phosphorylates and activates the NLRP3 inflammasome in progeroid cells; caspase-1/IL-1β signalling is the amplifier converting cell-intrinsic damage into tissue-level dysfunction, and NLRP3 blockade (MCC950) should ameliorate disease. Mechanism: Persistent damage at decompacted chromatin → nuclear DNA-PK/IKK activity escapes into cytoplasm → NLRP3 priming and licensing → caspase-1 cleavage of IL-1β/IL-18 → autocrine IL-1 receptor loop that sustains NF-κB and the full SASP, driving vascular smooth-muscle apoptosis and adipose loss. Prediction: IL-1β and cleaved caspase-1 are detectable in G609G aorta and HGPS patient serum and correlate with p16; Nlrp3−/− or MCC950-treated G609G mice show reduced SASP, preserved VSMCs and longer lifespan, whereas blocking IL-6 alone gives a smaller benefit — placing IL-1 upstream.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Progerin-induced heterochromatin decompaction and nuclear-envelope rupture release genomic and mitochondrial DNA fragments into the cytosol, where cGAS–STING sensing produces the type-I-interferon arm of the SASP; STING loss or inhibition should uncouple nuclear damage from inflammation and improve HGPS phenotypes. Mechanism: Loss of lamin B1/heterochromatin tethering → micronuclei, cytoplasmic chromatin fragments and de-repressed LINE-1 retroelement cDNA → cGAS activation → STING–TBK1–IRF3 → IFN-β and NF-κB SASP → paracrine senescence in vasculature and adipose tissue. Prediction: Cytosolic dsDNA and ISG signatures (Ifit1, Isg15) are elevated in HGPS fibroblasts and G609G aorta and precede p16 induction; Sting1-null G609G mice or STING/TBK1 inhibitor treatment reduce SASP and vascular smooth-muscle loss and extend lifespan, while cGAS-independent DNA-damage signalling (ATM) remains unchanged — separating sensing from damage itself.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "Because HGPS senescence is self-reinforcing and paracrine, the senescent cells themselves — not progerin expression per se — limit lifespan; selectively clearing p16/p21-high senescent cells (senolytics or genetic INK-ATTAC-style ablation) in Lmna G609G mice should extend lifespan and reverse vascular and metabolic phenotypes even while progerin remains fully expressed. Mechanism: Chromatin-disruption-initiated senescence in a minority of cells (VSMCs, fibroblasts, adipocytes) secretes SASP factors that induce bystander senescence and stem-cell exhaustion; removing the secreting cells breaks the feed-forward loop, allowing non-senescent progerin-expressing cells to maintain tissue function. Prediction: Intermittent dasatinib+quercetin or navitoclax from weaning reduces aortic p21+ cells, restores pulse-wave velocity and extends G609G median lifespan, with benefit scaling with the degree of senescent-cell clearance rather than with any change in progerin level or farnesylation — and no benefit in mice where SASP is already blocked genetically (non-additivity confirming the same node).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Progerin sequesters and inactivates a specific chromatin-modifying complex — the NuRD/HDAC and SUV39H1 machinery — and this enzymatic deficit, not farnesylation per se, is the proximal cause of senescence; re-supplying the lost activity (SUV39H1 or RBBP4/HDAC1 restoration, or HDAC inhibition timed to restore balance) should rescue phenotypes independently of lamin processing. Mechanism: Farnesylated progerin at the inner nuclear membrane binds and titrates RBBP4/RBBP7 and SUV39H1 away from chromatin → loss of H3K9me3 at pericentric and LINE-1 regions and inappropriate acetylation at SASP enhancers → constitutive AP-1/NF-κB enhancer activation → senescence. Prediction: Forced expression of SUV39H1 or RBBP4 in HGPS fibroblasts restores H3K9me3 and suppresses IL-6 without changing progerin levels or its membrane localisation; conversely, SUV39H1 knockdown in normal fibroblasts reproduces the SASP profile. AAV-delivered SUV39H1 in G609G mice improves aortic histology — an outcome lonafarnib cannot explain.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "In HGPS, progerin-driven loss of heterochromatin de-represses the NAD+-consuming enzyme CD38 (and related NADase programs), depleting nuclear and mitochondrial NAD+; the resulting loss of SIRT1/SIRT6 activity disables DNA-damage repair and PGC-1α-dependent mitochondrial maintenance, locking cells into senescence with a strong SASP. Restoring NAD+ (NMN/NR or CD38 inhibition) should reduce senescence markers and extend lifespan in Lmna G609G mice. Mechanism: Heterochromatin loss (H3K9me3/HP1/LAP2α decline) at NADase and inflammatory loci → CD38 up-regulation → NAD+ depletion → reduced SIRT6-dependent double-strand-break repair and SIRT1-dependent PGC-1α deacetylation → persistent DNA damage foci + mitochondrial ROS → p16/p21 senescence and NF-κB-driven SASP. Prediction: Tissue NAD+ in G609G mice falls before senescence markers rise, and CD38 knockout or NAD+ precursor dosing started pre-symptomatically restores H3K9me3-independent repair capacity, lowers IL-6/CXCL1, and extends median lifespan ≥15%; a sirtuin-dead (Sirt6 catalytic mutant) background abolishes the rescue, distinguishing this from generic antioxidant effects.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42758848", "pmid": "42758848", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aee8251", "title": "Epigenetic training licenses naïve CD8+ T cell metabolic fitness and function.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-18", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies and rescues a causal epigenetic mechanism underlying an age-related decline in immune-cell activation.", "background": "Ageing is accompanied by a progressive weakening of adaptive immune responses, which reduces protection against infections and cancer. Effective immunity requires resting immune cells to preserve metabolic competence while remaining ready for rapid activation. Age-related changes in chromatin regulation and cellular metabolism have both been implicated in immune dysfunction. However, the mechanism that establishes this latent metabolic readiness and how ageing disrupts it remained unclear.", "question": "What developmentally established epigenetic mechanism preserves metabolic readiness for rapid immune activation, and how is it disrupted during ageing?", "subject": "Age-related immune dysfunction", "finding": "Tonic IL-7 signaling establishes a GABPα-dependent program that deposits H2A.Z at oxidative-phosphorylation gene promoters in quiescent naïve CD8+ T cells, priming their rapid metabolic and functional activation. Age-related loss of IL-7 signaling reduces H2A.Z occupancy and impairs activation, while IL-7 supplementation or enforced H2A.Z expression rescues the defect.", "key_points": [ "Ageing reduces tonic IL-7 signaling", "GABPα regulates H2A.Z deposition", "H2A.Z primes OXPHOS gene promoters", "Loss of this axis impairs naïve CD8+ T-cell activation", "IL-7 or H2A.Z restoration rescues the age-related defect" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Resting lymphocytes maintain metabolic readiness through developmentally deposited bivalent/poised chromatin at metabolic gene loci — promoters of glycolytic, mitochondrial biogenesis and nutrient-transporter genes are marked by H3K4me3 together with paused but pre-loaded RNA polymerase II, so transcription can be released within minutes of antigen receptor signalling. Ageing erodes this poised state through loss of H3K4me3 breadth and redistribution of Pol II pausing factors, converting rapid release into slow de novo induction. Mechanism: During thymic/bone-marrow development, lineage transcription factors recruit MLL/SET1 complexes and NELF/DSIF to metabolic effector genes, creating a paused-Pol II reservoir independent of ongoing transcription. Activation signals trigger P-TEFb (CDK9) recruitment and pause release, giving immediate metabolic flux without waiting for chromatin opening. With age, declining SAM availability and altered MLL3/4 and KDM5 activity narrow H3K4me3 domains and deplete paused Pol II at these loci. Prediction: Pol II ChIP-seq/PRO-seq in naive CD4 T cells from old versus young mice will show selectively reduced promoter-proximal Pol II occupancy and pausing index at glycolytic/OXPHOS genes (not at housekeeping genes), with correspondingly delayed (hours instead of minutes) transcriptional induction and extracellular acidification rate after anti-CD3/CD28 — and restoring pause-release competence or H3K4me3 breadth (CDK9 agonism, KDM5 inhibition) will rescue the early flux without changing resting metabolic rate.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Readiness depends on a developmentally installed Polycomb (PRC2/H3K27me3) brake that actively restrains metabolic genes in the resting state while keeping them in an instantly de-repressible configuration. Ageing shifts this from a reversible brake to a stable lock, as H3K27me3 spreads and co-accumulates with H3K9me3/heterochromatin at the same loci, making de-repression slow and incomplete. Mechanism: In development, PRC2 is recruited to metabolic effector promoters that also carry H3K4me3, producing reversible repression discharged on activation by UTX/KDM6B recruitment and JMJD3 induction. Ageing reduces inducible KDM6B and increases EZH2-independent H3K27me3 spreading plus SETDB1/HP1 recruitment, so the mark is no longer erasable on the timescale of an immune response. Prediction: ChIP-seq will show H3K27me3 domains at metabolic promoters broadening with age and acquiring H3K9me3 co-occupancy, and the kinetics of H3K27me3 removal after activation will be markedly slower in old cells. EZH2 or SETDB1 inhibition — or KDM6B overexpression — in old naive cells will restore rapid metabolic induction and antigen-specific expansion, whereas the same treatment in young cells gives no gain, demonstrating that the brake, not gene absence, is limiting.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Metabolic readiness is stored as a developmentally set, DNA-hypomethylated and nucleosome-depleted 'metabolic accessibility landscape' maintained by continuous low-level TET activity that depends on α-ketoglutarate from resting-cell anaplerosis. Ageing creates a self-reinforcing loop: mitochondrial decline lowers α-KG, TET activity falls, metabolic gene regulatory elements gain methylation and close, which further lowers metabolic capacity. Mechanism: TET2/TET3 use α-KG to keep CpGs at metabolic enhancers unmethylated in quiescent cells; this maintenance is invisible transcriptionally but required for rapid factor binding. Age-associated loss of mitochondrial membrane potential and NAD+ reduces α-KG and succinate/fumarate ratios, inhibiting TET and promoting DNMT-driven drift, which closes the very elements controlling mitochondrial and glycolytic capacity. Prediction: Single-cell ATAC + methylation in naive T cells will show age-dependent hypermethylation and closing specifically at TET-dependent metabolic enhancers; supplementing old resting cells with cell-permeable α-ketoglutarate (or dimethyl-α-KG) will reopen those elements and restore activation-induced glycolytic switching, while TET2 deletion in young cells reproduces the aged phenotype — an effect absent in cells where the same enhancers are kept open by dCas9-mediated demethylation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "A developmentally established enhancer–promoter architecture ('metabolic hubs') pre-wired by CTCF/cohesin loops holds activation-responsive metabolic genes in contact with their enhancers while they are still silent, making induction a signalling problem rather than a 3D-folding problem. Age-related loss of cohesin loading and CTCF occupancy dissolves these pre-formed loops, so old resting cells must rebuild topology before they can upregulate metabolism. Mechanism: Pre-formed loops anchored at CTCF sites co-localise latent enhancers bound by pioneer factors with promoters of MYC, SLC2A1, SLC7A5 and mitochondrial biogenesis genes. On activation, NFAT/NF-κB/AP-1 bind the already-contacting enhancers and immediately deliver coactivators. Ageing reduces cohesin subunit expression and increases CTCF-site DNA methylation, collapsing stripe/loop domains at these hubs. Prediction: Micro-C or Capture-C in naive lymphocytes will show age-specific loss of pre-existing enhancer–promoter contacts at metabolic loci in resting cells, and the magnitude of contact loss per locus will predict the delay in that gene's induction. Acute cohesin degradation in young resting cells will phenocopy the aged activation delay, whereas forcing the loop (CRISPR-based looping or enhancer tethering) in old cells restores early induction.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "The readiness mechanism is a developmentally deposited histone-variant and chaperone configuration — H2A.Z-containing, labile nucleosomes at metabolic promoters maintained by SRCAP/ANP32E and H3.3 turnover — that lowers the energetic barrier to immediate transcription. Ageing depletes H2A.Z/H3.3 turnover capacity, replacing labile nucleosomes with stable canonical ones and abolishing the hair-trigger property. Mechanism: H2A.Z/H3.3-marked nucleosomes are intrinsically unstable and readily evicted, so signal-dependent transcription factors can occupy metabolic promoters without ATP-dependent remodelling. Maintaining this state requires continuous chaperone-mediated exchange (HIRA, SRCAP, ANP32E), which declines with age as chaperone expression falls and histone supply becomes imbalanced, yielding stable, remodeller-dependent nucleosomes. Prediction: MNase-based nucleosome stability mapping and histone turnover labelling in resting naive lymphocytes will show age-specific loss of labile H2A.Z/H3.3 nucleosomes concentrated at metabolic promoters; knockdown of HIRA/SRCAP in young cells will reproduce slowed metabolic induction, and restoring H2A.Z deposition in old cells will recover minute-scale transcription factor loading and oxygen consumption/ECAR rise, with no change in the resting transcriptome.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42759510", "pmid": "42759510", "doi": "10.1016/j.neuron.2026.08.022", "title": "A miR-10a-5p-γCaMKII axis links periphery-to-brain signaling to cognitive vulnerability during female midlife.", "journal": "Neuron", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-18", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally establishes a causal molecular mechanism linking female midlife ageing, peripheral-to-brain signaling, cellular senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, cognitive decline, and Alzheimer’s-related phenotypes.", "background": "Women show a disproportionate increase in cognitive and systemic vulnerability during midlife despite their longer average lifespan. Ageing is accompanied by mitochondrial dysfunction, cellular senescence, and altered communication between peripheral tissues and the brain. Circulating regulatory signals can influence brain physiology, but the mechanisms responsible for the female-biased transition from resilience to vulnerability remain poorly understood. It was also unclear whether this transition is reversible or contributes causally to age-related neurodegenerative phenotypes.", "question": "What molecular mechanism drives peripheral-to-brain signaling that promotes senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cognitive vulnerability during female midlife?", "subject": "Female midlife cognitive vulnerability", "finding": "Epigenetic upregulation of splenic RBMX in middle-aged female mice increases peripheral miR-10a-5p, which contributes to cerebral miR-10a-5p abundance and represses γCaMKII. Manipulating this RBMX–miR-10a-5p–γCaMKII axis alters mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and memory, while miR-10a-5p inhibition alleviates Alzheimer’s-associated phenotypes in patient-derived neurons and model mice.", "key_points": [ "Female midlife induces epigenetic RBMX upregulation in the spleen", "RBMX promotes increased splenic miR-10a-5p", "Peripheral signaling contributes to brain miR-10a-5p abundance", "miR-10a-5p represses γCaMKII and drives mitochondrial, senescence, and memory phenotypes", "miR-10a-5p inhibition attenuates Alzheimer’s-associated phenotypes" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Loss of ovarian oestradiol at perimenopause de-represses a specific circulating TGF-β superfamily ligand produced by peripheral tissue (activin A / inhibin-βA, INHBA) which crosses the compromised blood-brain barrier and drives hippocampal senescence. Restoring ligand neutralisation after the transition reverses cognitive deficits, showing the state is not fixed. Mechanism: Oestrogen-receptor-α occupancy at the INHBA locus in liver, visceral adipose and ovarian stroma normally suppresses transcription. Oestradiol withdrawal removes this repression; plasma activin A rises and signals through ACVR1B/2A–SMAD2/3 on brain endothelium and microglia, inducing p16INK4a/p21 and SASP, loosening tight junctions and amplifying its own entry in a feed-forward loop. Prediction: Ovariectomised mice given an activin-A-neutralising antibody or soluble ACVR2B-Fc, starting only after cognitive decline is established, recover hippocampal mitochondrial respiration and spatial memory, while oestradiol-replete controls given recombinant activin A acquire the deficits; neither effect appears in SMAD3-null brain endothelium.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Midlife ovarian and visceral-adipose senescent cells export a defined cargo of extracellular vesicle microRNAs (notably miR-29/miR-34a/miR-146a family members) that is taken up by hippocampal cells, where it silences nuclear-encoded mitochondrial and sirtuin transcripts, propagating senescence from periphery to brain. Mechanism: Senescent peripheral cells upregulate EV biogenesis; the vesicles carry miRNAs targeting SIRT1, TFAM, NDUFA/SDHB subunits and lamin B1. Uptake by brain endothelium and microglia suppresses OXPHOS complex assembly and mitochondrial biogenesis, lowering NAD+ and reinforcing a senescent transcriptome that is then relayed to neurons by inflammatory secretion. Prediction: Plasma EVs from midlife female mice, but not age-matched males or young females, induce senescence and respiratory deficits when injected into young female brains; depleting the specific miRNA by antagomir loading of the EVs, or blocking EV release with GW4869 or ovarian senolytic clearance, abolishes transfer — an effect not reproduced by EV-depleted plasma.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "The female midlife transition is driven not by oestradiol loss itself but by the sustained rise in pituitary FSH, which acts directly on FSHR expressed on brain endothelium, microglia and neurons to induce mitochondrial fragmentation and senescence. Blocking the FSH–FSHR interaction while leaving gonadal steroids unchanged prevents the cognitive phenotype. Mechanism: Unopposed FSH binds neural FSHR, raising cAMP/PKA and Gαi-dependent ROS, which activates DRP1-mediated fission, lowers mitophagy flux, and triggers cGAS–STING sensing of leaked mtDNA; STING-driven type-I interferon and IL-6 constitute the SASP that degrades synaptic function. Amplification of amyloidogenic processing via FSHR–C/EBPβ–AEP links the axis to neurodegenerative phenotypes. Prediction: In ovariectomised or perimenopausal mice, an FSHβ-blocking antibody or neuron/endothelium-specific Fshr deletion preserves hippocampal mitochondrial network morphology, senescence markers and memory despite equally low oestradiol; conversely, FSH infusion into intact young females with clamped oestradiol reproduces the deficits.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Perimenopausal loss of oestrogen-dependent gut barrier and microbial regulation permits microbial-product leak (LPS, imidazole propionate, reduced SCFA) that primes hepatic acute-phase output; the resulting peripheral innate-immune tone, not an ovarian signal per se, drives brain senescence and cognitive vulnerability in females. Mechanism: ERβ-dependent mucin and tight-junction maintenance fails, raising portal LPS. Hepatic TLR4–NF-κB output (IL-6, CRP, serum amyloid A) plus loss of butyrate-dependent HDAC inhibition activates brain-border macrophages and microglia, inducing NLRP3 and mitochondrial ROS; microglial senescence then degrades synaptic pruning and tau/amyloid clearance. Prediction: Germ-free or antibiotic-depleted ovariectomised females, or those given butyrate or TLR4 blockade, retain microglial mitochondrial function and memory despite full oestradiol loss; faecal transfer from perimenopausal females into young germ-free females transmits brain senescence markers, and the transfer fails with LPS-nonresponsive (Tlr4-null) recipients.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "Oestradiol loss collapses hepatic and adipose one-carbon/NAD+ metabolism, and the resulting rise in circulating nicotinamide-pathway and methylation-cycle intermediates (low NAD+ precursor availability with elevated homocysteine/2-HG-like metabolites) is the signal that drives brain sirtuin inactivation, mitochondrial dysfunction and senescence in female midlife. Mechanism: Reduced ERα signalling lowers NAMPT and raises CD38 in peripheral tissue, cutting systemic NAD+ precursor supply. Brain NAD+/NADH falls, SIRT1/SIRT3 deacetylase activity drops, acetylated SOD2 and acetylated PGC-1α accumulate, ROS rise, mitophagy fails, and a p53/p21 senescence programme is set — with impaired methylation capacity locking in the transcriptional state epigenetically. Prediction: Peripheral NAD+ restoration (NR/NMN plus CD38 inhibition) confined to liver/adipose by tissue-targeted delivery, without raising brain NAD+ directly, restores hippocampal SIRT3-dependent SOD2 deacetylation and memory in midlife females; the rescue is lost in Sirt3-null brain and absent when NAD+ is raised only in brain while peripheral depletion continues.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42775695", "pmid": "42775695", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70720", "title": "Mitochondrial Transplantation Rejuvenates Aging Heart by Restoring Mitophagy Flux via the HIF-3α-BNIP3 Axis.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-23", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports an experimentally supported causal mechanism for age-related cardiac decline and shows how an intervention reverses it.", "background": "Cardiac function progressively deteriorates with age, increasing susceptibility to heart failure and other cardiovascular disorders. Defective mitochondrial quality control is considered an important contributor to this decline. Selective removal of damaged mitochondria must remain properly balanced, because disruption at multiple stages of the process can impair cellular homeostasis. The upstream causes of this age-associated defect and whether it can be therapeutically reversed were not well established.", "question": "What causes defective mitochondrial quality-control flux in the aging heart, and how can restoring mitochondrial homeostasis reverse cardiac aging?", "subject": "Age-related cardiac mitophagy", "finding": "Age-associated upregulation of HIF-3α drives excessive BNIP3 expression in senescent cardiomyocytes, causing mitophagy flux congestion and cardiac aging. Mitochondrial transplantation restores intracellular ATP homeostasis, restrains pathological HIF-3α–BNIP3 signaling, normalizes mitophagy flux, and rejuvenates the aging heart.", "key_points": [ "HIF-3α is aberrantly elevated with cardiac aging", "HIF-3α directly promotes excessive BNIP3 expression", "Overactive HIF-3α–BNIP3 signaling causes mitophagy flux congestion", "Mitochondrial transplantation restores ATP homeostasis and suppresses the axis", "Normalized mitophagy flux reverses age-related cardiac dysfunction" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Age-associated loss of PINK1/Parkin-independent mitophagy receptor availability at the cardiomyocyte outer mitochondrial membrane — specifically declining BNIP3/NIX and FUNDC1 expression — is the upstream cause of reduced mitophagic flux in the aged heart. Restoring receptor-mediated engulfment is sufficient to re-establish flux and improve diastolic function. Mechanism: Cardiomyocytes are long-lived and rely heavily on receptor-mediated (ubiquitin-independent) mitophagy rather than acute Parkin recruitment. With age, chromatin and transcriptional repression at BNIP3/NIX and dephosphorylation-competent FUNDC1 pools fall, so damaged mitochondria accumulate ubiquitin signal but are never captured by LC3-decorated membranes. Flux stalls at cargo recognition rather than at autophagosome formation. Prediction: In aged hearts, mitochondrial ubiquitination and p62 recruitment are preserved or elevated while LC3–mitochondria colocalization and mito-QC/mt-Keima red puncta are reduced; cardiomyocyte-restricted re-expression of BNIP3 or non-phosphorylatable FUNDC1 (but not Parkin overexpression) restores mt-Keima flux and reverses diastolic stiffening. If instead Parkin overexpression alone rescues flux, the hypothesis is falsified.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 1 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "Excess mitophagy flux is as pathogenic as deficient flux: the aged heart lies on an inverted-U, and interventions that overdrive mitophagy deplete functional mitochondrial mass and precipitate contractile failure. Restoring homeostasis therefore requires rebalancing coupled mitophagy and biogenesis, not maximizing clearance. Mechanism: Mitophagy and PGC-1α/NRF-driven biogenesis are normally coupled through shared regulators (AMPK, TFEB, PGC-1α). Aging uncouples them: biogenesis capacity falls first, so any pharmacologic or genetic amplification of clearance removes mitochondria that cannot be replaced, lowering OXPHOS capacity and ATP supply in a tissue with minimal metabolic reserve. Benefit occurs only when clearance is restored together with replacement capacity. Prediction: A dose–response study of a mitophagy inducer (urolithin A, spermidine, or graded Parkin/BNIP3 expression) in aged hearts yields a non-monotonic curve: intermediate doses improve function while high doses reduce mitochondrial DNA copy number, citrate synthase activity and ejection fraction. Co-activation of biogenesis shifts the optimum rightward and raises the maximum, whereas under a purely deficient-flux model function should increase monotonically with clearance.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of mitochondrial-derived vesicle and fission-dependent cargo triage — driven by age-dependent decline in DRP1-mediated asymmetric fission and MFN2 receptor function — prevents segregation of damaged subdomains into mitophagy-competent small units, so whole giant mitochondria become undegradable. Mechanism: Selective removal requires that the damaged portion be pinched off to a size an autophagosome can enclose. In aged cardiomyocytes, reduced DRP1 recruitment and hyperfused/megamitochondrial morphology mean damaged matrix regions remain embedded in networks too large to engulf; MFN2 loss additionally removes the Parkin docking site. Quality control therefore fails at cargo sizing upstream of both receptor and ubiquitin steps. Prediction: Aged cardiac mitochondria show increased mean volume with damaged (low membrane potential) subdomains retained inside large organelles; acute, mild pro-fission intervention (regulated DRP1 activation or S-OPA1 modulation) restores mt-Keima flux and contractile reserve, while receptor or lysosomal interventions alone leave the oversized-cargo population undegraded.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "The aged heart's defect is distal, not initiation-based: lysosomal acidification failure (reduced v-ATPase assembly and TFEB nuclear exclusion) blocks autophagosome–lysosome fusion and cargo degradation, so mitophagy initiation is normal or compensatorily increased while net flux collapses. Mechanism: Chronic mTORC1 activity and age-related accumulation of lipofuscin/ceroid in cardiac lysosomes raise lysosomal pH and keep TFEB phosphorylated and cytoplasmic, lowering transcription of CLEAR-network hydrolases and v-ATPase subunits. Mitophagosomes form but stall as undegraded amphisomes, which sequesters the autophagy machinery and secondarily inhibits new initiation — a traffic jam rather than a failure to start. Prediction: Aged hearts show increased mitophagosome number by electron microscopy and elevated LC3-II with unchanged LC3-II response to lysosomal inhibitors (bafilomycin/chloroquine), plus raised lysosomal pH; cardiomyocyte TFEB activation or v-ATPase restoration normalizes flux and function, whereas boosting initiation (e.g., Beclin-1 or autophagy-inducing peptide) worsens amphisome accumulation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "A single upstream metabolite deficit — declining NAD+ and consequent loss of SIRT1/SIRT3-dependent deacetylation of autophagy and mitophagy effectors — causally produces the aged heart's mitophagy flux defect, and NAD+ repletion reverses cardiac aging phenotypes through this axis. Mechanism: CD38/PARP-driven NAD+ consumption lowers nuclear and mitochondrial NAD+, leaving ATG5/ATG7, LC3 and FOXO3 hyperacetylated and TFEB/PGC-1α under-deacetylated. Hyperacetylated LC3 is retained in the nucleus and unavailable for lipidation, while reduced SIRT3 activity leaves MnSOD acetylated, increasing mitochondrial oxidant load and damage faster than it can be cleared. Flux falls while damage rises — a self-amplifying loop. Prediction: Cardiac NAD+ and mitophagy flux decline in parallel with age and correlate per-animal; NMN/NR or CD38 inhibition restores mt-Keima flux, lowers LC3/FOXO3 acetylation and improves ejection fraction and diastolic function, and this rescue is abolished in cardiomyocyte-specific Sirt1 or Sirt3 knockouts (falsifying a sirtuin-independent NAD+ effect).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42775698", "pmid": "42775698", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70725", "title": "Transplantation of Elderly Human Gut Microbiota Into Pigs Reprograms Intestinal Barrier Function, Plasma Metabolome, and Gut Mucosal Transcriptomic Landscape.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-23", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally demonstrates that age-associated differences in human gut microbiota can causally drive intestinal barrier decline and identifies metabolite-linked effects that help explain this mechanism.", "background": "Intestinal structure and barrier integrity commonly deteriorate with age, contributing to altered nutrient handling, inflammation, and systemic metabolic dysfunction. Ageing is also accompanied by changes in circulating metabolites and intestinal gene expression. Observational studies have linked these features, but such associations cannot establish whether age-related changes in the intestinal ecosystem actively cause host dysfunction. The mechanisms connecting donor age-associated biological states to impaired intestinal physiology therefore remained unclear.", "question": "Can age-associated differences in the human gut microbial community causally reprogram intestinal barrier function, systemic metabolism, and mucosal gene expression, and what mediators contribute to these effects?", "subject": "Microbiota-driven intestinal ageing", "finding": "Transplanting elderly-human gut microbiota into pigs caused reduced ileal villus height, loss of tight-junction proteins, altered plasma metabolites, and coordinated suppression of seven ileal mucosal antiviral-response hub genes compared with young-donor microbiota. The elderly-donor-associated metabolic shift was functionally linked to barrier impairment: Tyr-Phe increased epithelial electrical resistance, whereas prostaglandin E3 decreased it in IPEC-1 cells.", "key_points": [ "Elderly-donor microbiota causally impaired intestinal architecture and tight-junction integrity", "Elderly-donor transplantation reshaped the plasma metabolome", "Tyr-Phe strengthened and prostaglandin E3 weakened epithelial barrier function experimentally", "Seven mucosal hub genes were consistently downregulated after elderly-donor transplantation", "Blautia obeum enrichment was associated with the elderly-donor metabolic and barrier phenotype" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of microbial tryptophan-to-indole conversion in aged-donor communities is a necessary mediator of age-associated barrier failure: reduced indole, indole-3-aldehyde, indole-3-propionate and indole-3-acetate production lowers aryl-hydrocarbon-receptor tone in the intestinal epithelium and in RORγt+ lymphocytes, weakening IL-22-dependent mucosal defence. Mechanism: Aged microbiota divert tryptophan toward kynurenine/host uptake and away from bacterial tryptophanase and aromatic-amino-acid aminotransferase routes (e.g. loss of Lactobacillus reuteri-type indole-3-aldehyde producers). Diminished AHR ligand supply reduces ILC3/Th17 IL-22 output, thereby lowering Reg3b/Reg3g, Muc2 and antimicrobial-peptide expression and thinning the mucus layer; the thinner mucus permits bacterial-product translocation and chronic low-grade systemic inflammation that impairs insulin sensitivity. Prediction: Aged-donor recipients have lower caecal indole derivatives with a higher kynurenine:indole ratio, reduced Cyp1a1/Il22/Reg3g in ileal tissue, and thinner Muc2 mucus; oral indole-3-propionate or an AHR agonist normalises these readouts and permeability in aged-donor recipients, whereas Ahr^-/- or Il22^-/- recipients show no donor-age difference, placing the mediator inside the AHR–IL-22 axis rather than downstream of general inflammation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Aged-donor microbiota causally reprogram host lipid and glucose handling through a shifted bile-acid pool — specifically increased deconjugation/7α-dehydroxylation products and altered FXR/TGR5 ligand balance — such that aged-donor recipients develop impaired intestinal lipid absorption, altered hepatic lipogenesis and reduced glucose tolerance. Mechanism: Age-associated enrichment of bile-salt-hydrolase- and bai-operon-carrying taxa (Clostridium scindens-like, certain Bacteroides) raises unconjugated and secondary bile acids (deoxycholate, lithocholate) and lowers FXR antagonists such as tauro-β-muricholate. Changed intestinal FXR signalling suppresses FGF15/19 and alters the Shp–Srebp axis, while TGR5 engagement on L-cells changes GLP-1 secretion; high luminal deoxycholate is additionally membrane-detergent and cytotoxic to the epithelium, independently degrading the barrier. Prediction: Aged-donor recipients show a measurable shift in caecal/portal bile-acid species with coordinate change in ileal Fgf15, Shp, Fabp6 and Nr1h4 target genes; sequestering bile acids with cholestyramine, or intestine-specific FXR deletion/antagonism, abolishes the donor-age difference in glucose tolerance and hepatic lipid gene expression, and mono-colonisation with a bai-operon strain partially reproduces the aged phenotype in young-donor recipients.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "Aged-donor microbiota act not through a single taxon but through a loss of community-level metabolic redundancy, and the resulting host phenotype is reversible: introducing a defined consortium of keystone functions absent from the aged community (butyrogenesis, mucin-tolerant Akkermansia-type growth, indole production) into aged-donor recipients restores barrier and mucosal gene expression even while most aged taxa persist. Mechanism: Ageing reduces functional redundancy so that stochastic loss of a few keystone guilds collapses whole metabolic outputs (SCFA, indoles, mucin-layer turnover) rather than merely shifting taxonomy. Mucin-degrading Akkermansia muciniphila at normal abundance paradoxically stimulates goblet-cell Muc2 renewal and supplies oligosaccharides cross-fed to butyrogens; its depletion in aged communities simultaneously thins mucus and starves butyrate production, so reinstating the guild repairs both arms and normalises epithelial proliferation/differentiation programmes (Lgr5, Olfm4, Muc2, tight-junction genes). Prediction: Function-based rather than taxonomy-based grouping of donors predicts recipient barrier phenotype better than donor chronological age or any single genus; a three-to-five-strain functional consortium rescues villus height, permeability, mucosal transcriptome and glucose tolerance in aged-donor recipients, whereas an abundance-matched consortium lacking those functions does not, and heat-killed consortium gives no rescue — showing the mediator is ongoing community metabolic output.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Transplantation of faecal microbiota from aged human donors into germ-free or antibiotic-depleted young mice is sufficient to cause reduced small-intestinal villus height and surface area, increased paracellular permeability, and a pro-inflammatory mucosal transcriptional programme, whereas microbiota from young donors does not. The effect is donor-age-driven rather than recipient-age-driven, establishing the aged community as an active cause rather than a consequence of host ageing. Mechanism: Age-associated communities are depleted of saccharolytic, butyrate-producing Firmicutes (Faecalibacterium, Roseburia, Eubacterium rectale) and enriched in Proteobacteria/Enterobacteriaceae and pathobionts. Loss of luminal butyrate removes the dominant colonocyte energy substrate and HDAC-inhibitory/HIF-1α-stabilising signal that maintains tight-junction (claudin-1, occludin, ZO-1) expression and epithelial oxygen consumption; the resulting epithelial oxygenation further expands facultative anaerobes, creating a feed-forward loop that degrades barrier integrity and drives NF-κB-dependent mucosal gene expression. Prediction: Recipients of aged-donor microbiota show lower caecal/portal butyrate, reduced claudin/occludin protein, elevated serum FITC-dextran or LPS-binding protein, and villus atrophy; oral tributyrin or butyrate supplementation (or co-colonisation with a butyrogenic consortium) in aged-donor recipients restores villus morphology, tight-junction expression and permeability to young-donor levels without changing overall community membership, while butyrate-receptor-deficient (Ffar2/Ffar3 or Hdac3^ΔIEC) recipients are refractory to that rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 3, "text": "The causal signal from aged-donor microbiota is carried substantially by cell-free, non-viable material — outer-membrane vesicles, LPS and flagellin from expanded Enterobacteriaceae — so that sterile filtrates or isolated vesicles from aged human stool reproduce intestinal barrier loss and metabolic impairment without transferring live organisms. Mechanism: Age-associated blooms of Gram-negative facultative anaerobes increase the luminal load of hexa-acylated, strongly TLR4-agonistic LPS and of TLR5-agonistic flagellin, delivered to the epithelium and lamina propria partly inside bacterial outer-membrane vesicles that cross a compromised mucus layer. TLR4/MyD88 and TLR5 engagement activates NF-κB and myosin-light-chain-kinase-dependent tight-junction remodelling, raising paracellular permeability, and the ensuing portal endotoxaemia drives adipose/hepatic inflammatory signalling and insulin resistance. Prediction: Gamma-irradiated or 0.22 µm-filtered aged-stool preparations and purified aged-stool OMVs induce a partial but significant barrier and glucose-tolerance phenotype relative to young-donor preparations; the effect is lost in Tlr4^-/-, Myd88^ΔIEC or MLCK-inhibited recipients and is attenuated by polymyxin B, distinguishing a direct pattern-recognition mechanism from one requiring ongoing microbial metabolism.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42786310", "pmid": "42786310", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01220-0", "title": "Multi-modality profiling identifies Neisseria flavescens as a central geroprotective oral commensal in humans.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-24", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally demonstrates that a specific commensal microorganism causally improves ageing-related outcomes, including lifespan and healthspan, across animal models.", "background": "Ageing involves coordinated deterioration across metabolic, immune and organ systems, accompanied by changes in host-associated microbial communities. Microbiome composition correlates with biological age and age-related physiological states, but such associations do not establish whether individual microorganisms can modify the ageing process. Some microbial interventions alter host metabolism and longevity in experimental models, although causal effects often depend on organism viability, microbial products and host context. It therefore remained unclear whether systematic integration of diverse human biological measurements could identify a microorganism with experimentally reproducible geroprotective activity.", "question": "Can a commensal microorganism predicted from integrated human ageing profiles causally extend lifespan and healthspan and shift age-associated molecular and microbial states toward younger configurations?", "subject": "Microbial geroprotection", "finding": "Neisseria flavescens was identified as a candidate geroprotective commensal and experimentally shown to extend lifespan and healthspan in Caenorhabditis elegans when administered live. In aged mice, heat-killed N. flavescens shifted the serum metabolome, liver transcriptome and gut microbiome toward younger states, while isolated strains were confirmed to produce predicted beneficial metabolites.", "key_points": [ "Neisseria flavescens is the causal candidate", "Live bacteria extend C. elegans lifespan and healthspan", "Heat-killed bacteria rejuvenate multiple ageing-associated profiles in mice", "Isolated strains produce beneficial metabolites predicted by multi-modality analysis" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "The strain shifts host molecular ageing clocks toward younger states in a tissue-ordered, dose-dependent manner, with the gut–liver axis responding first and brain/immune tissues later, and these clock shifts causally precede rather than merely accompany functional improvement. Mechanism: Metabolite-driven changes in one-carbon/SAM availability and HDAC/DNMT-TET activity retune DNA-methylation and transcriptomic programmes; early hepatic metabolic reprogramming (lipid handling, mTOR/AMPK balance) propagates systemically via altered circulating metabolites and reduced inflammatory tone. Prediction: Longitudinal sampling shows epigenetic/transcriptomic age reduction in colon and liver within 4–8 weeks, in blood and hypothalamus by 16–24 weeks, with the magnitude of the early hepatic clock shift predicting later grip strength, gait, and survival at the individual-animal level; a non-colonising or effector-null strain yields neither clock nor functional change.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "The organism exerts its effect indirectly by remodelling the resident community — shifting the whole gut microbiome toward a young-like configuration (ecological rejuvenation) — and this community shift, not the strain's own biomass, is the proximate cause of extended healthspan. Mechanism: The introduced strain alters luminal pH, redox state, mucin glycan availability and cross-feeding substrates, suppressing age-expanded pathobionts (Enterobacteriaceae, Desulfovibrio) and promoting butyrate producers; the restructured consortium supplies the host-facing metabolic output. Prediction: Faecal transfer from strain-treated old donors to untreated age-matched recipients transmits the microbiome-age reduction and the healthspan gain without the donor strain needing to persist; in contrast, colonising mono-associated germ-free mice yields a markedly smaller effect than in conventional mice.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "The geroprotective effect is mediated by one or a few diffusible microbial metabolites rather than by the organism itself: oral administration of the strain's cell-free conditioned medium, or of the single purified dominant metabolite, reproduces the healthspan and molecular rejuvenation phenotype in non-colonised animals. Mechanism: The strain produces a metabolite (candidate classes: indole/tryptophan derivatives acting on AhR, short-chain fatty acids acting on GPR43/GPR109A and HDAC inhibition, polyamines such as spermidine inducing autophagy, or a bile-acid derivative acting on TGR5/FXR) that enters portal circulation and reprogrammes host transcriptional and epigenetic state. Prediction: Metabolomics identifies a metabolite elevated in serum of treated animals and in young humans; supplementing that metabolite alone recapitulates ≥60% of the frailty-index and transcriptomic-age improvement, and a biosynthesis-knockout mutant of the strain colonises normally but loses the effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "The strain acts primarily by restoring intestinal barrier integrity and thereby lowering age-associated systemic inflammation (inflammageing); its lifespan benefit is abolished in hosts lacking the relevant innate-immune or barrier signalling node. Mechanism: Colonisation increases mucin-2 and tight-junction protein expression, reduces translocation of LPS and bacterial DNA, and lowers circulating IL-6/TNF/IL-1β, reducing myeloid-driven tissue damage; the pathway depends on host MyD88/NLRP6- or IL-22/ILC3-dependent epithelial repair. Prediction: Treated old mice show reduced serum LBP/LPS and IL-6 plus increased colonic mucus thickness; germ-free or antibiotic-cleared mice gain the benefit, but Il22ra1- or Myd88-deficient (intestinal epithelium-conditional) mice treated with the strain show no barrier, inflammation, or lifespan improvement.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "A commensal bacterium nominated by multi-omic human ageing profiles (e.g. a Lactobacillus/Lactiplantibacillus- or Akkermansia-class strain whose relative abundance is high in biologically young individuals after adjusting for chronological age) causally extends median and maximum lifespan when colonised in gnotobiotic or conventional mice, and the effect requires live, metabolically active cells. Heat-killed or irradiated preparations of the same strain at matched dose produce no lifespan gain. Mechanism: Viable colonisation sustains continuous production of a secreted small-molecule or peptide effector in the gut lumen that signals to host enterocytes and the enteric immune compartment; killed cells deliver cell-wall ligands but no renewable effector flux, so downstream host signalling is not maintained. Prediction: Live-strain cohorts show a significant (>8%) median lifespan increase versus vehicle, while heat-killed cohorts overlap vehicle survival curves; the lifespan effect scales with faecal colonisation density/CFU and disappears in animals that fail to engraft.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42805954", "pmid": "42805954", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-77050-w", "title": "ALKBH5-mediated microglia-neuron crosstalk inhibits sympathetic innervation and adipocyte browning in male mice.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-27", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies a causal mechanism that contributes to age-related loss of thermogenic adipocytes and reduced metabolic activity in male mice.", "background": "Ageing is associated with declining thermogenic capacity in adipose tissue, impaired energy expenditure, and increased susceptibility to metabolic dysfunction. Subcutaneous white adipose tissue can acquire heat-producing adipocytes in response to environmental stimuli, but this capacity diminishes with age. Communication between the nervous system and adipose tissue helps regulate this adaptive response. The mechanisms responsible for its age-related deterioration remained incompletely understood.", "question": "What causal mechanism contributes to the age-related decline of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue?", "subject": "Age-related adipocyte browning decline", "finding": "Microglial ALKBH5 suppresses Ntf5 expression by demethylating Ntf5 mRNA, thereby limiting activation of PVH TrkB-positive neurons, sympathetic innervation of subcutaneous white adipose tissue, and adipocyte browning. Microglia-specific ALKBH5 knockout preserved brown adipocytes and improved metabolic activity during ageing in male mice.", "key_points": [ "Microglial ALKBH5 restrains adipocyte browning", "ALKBH5 knockout increases Ntf5 mRNA m6A methylation and Ntf5 expression", "Ntf5 activates PVH TrkB-positive neurons and downstream sympathetic innervation", "Microglia-specific ALKBH5 loss prevents age-related brown adipocyte decline", "The causal findings were demonstrated in male mice" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "Thermogenic decline is caused by age-associated sympathetic-neuron-associated macrophages that accumulate around nerve bundles in scWAT and actively clear norepinephrine. These macrophages import NE via SLC6A2 and degrade it via MAOA, creating a local catecholamine sink that blunts adrenergic signalling even when nerves and receptors are intact. Mechanism: Inflammaging-driven recruitment/expansion of a nerve-associated macrophage state (NLRP3/IL-1β- and senescence-primed) that expresses the NE transporter SLC6A2 and monoamine oxidase A; neuronally released NE is taken up and catabolised before it can engage adipocyte β3 receptors. Net effect: reduced effective interstitial NE concentration and reduced cAMP flux in neighbouring adipocytes, plus macrophage-derived cytokines that further suppress UCP1 transcription. Prediction: Aged scWAT shows normal TH+ terminal content but reduced interstitial NE and elevated NE metabolites, with SLC6A2+/MAOA+ macrophages clustered on nerve bundles. Myeloid-specific Slc6a2 or Maoa deletion, or macrophage depletion, restores cold-induced UCP1+ adipocytes in old mice without changing nerve density — distinguishing this from the neurite-retraction hypothesis, which predicts no rescue without re-innervation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Senescent cells accumulating in aged scWAT impose a paracrine block on thermogenic gene expression. SASP cytokines (TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, type-I/II interferons) acting through NF-κB and STAT1/3 repress the PRDM16–PGC-1α–UCP1 enhancer program in both mature adipocytes and progenitors, converting a recruitable depot into a non-recruitable one. Mechanism: p16/p21-high senescent preadipocytes and endothelial cells secrete inflammatory mediators; NF-κB and interferon-stimulated transcription factors occupy and decommission beige-selective enhancers, degrade/destabilise PRDM16, and induce ATF3/CHOP-type repressors, while simultaneously driving the nerve-associated macrophage phenotype. Thermogenic refractoriness is thus an inflammatory transcriptional silencing, reversible by removing the senescent source. Prediction: Senolytic treatment (dasatinib+quercetin or p16-INK-ATTAC clearance) in old mice restores cold-induced UCP1+ adipocytes in scWAT and reverses the loss of H3K27ac at beige enhancers, whereas it does not increase UCP1 in young mice; conversely, transplanting senescent cells into young scWAT reproduces the aged refractory phenotype within weeks. Blocking a single SASP axis (e.g. anti-TNF or IFNAR1 loss) gives partial rescue — a graded, source-dependent response that neither the innervation nor the progenitor-composition hypothesis predicts.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "The lesion is cell-intrinsic and metabolic-epigenetic: falling NAD+ availability in aged adipocytes (via NAMPT downregulation and CD38-driven consumption) impairs SIRT1-dependent deacetylation of PGC-1α and PRDM16 complex activity, so the thermogenic enhancer landscape cannot be activated even with full adrenergic signalling and an intact progenitor pool. Mechanism: Reduced salvage-pathway flux lowers nuclear/mitochondrial NAD+ → decreased SIRT1/SIRT3 activity → hyperacetylated, inactive PGC-1α, reduced PPARγ-K268/293 deacetylation and weakened PRDM16 recruitment, plus impaired mitochondrial biogenesis and increased oxidative damage; DNA methylation and loss of H3K27ac accumulate at the Ucp1/Ppargc1a enhancers, locking the state in. Prediction: Aged scWAT adipocytes show reduced NAD+/NAMPT and elevated PGC-1α acetylation, and remain UCP1-low after ex vivo cAMP-analogue stimulation (bypassing nerve and macrophage layers). NMN/NR supplementation or adipocyte-specific Nampt restoration, or CD38 inhibition, restores UCP1 induction in aged tissue and in isolated aged adipocytes in vitro — a rescue that must persist in explants devoid of nerves, macrophages and senescent-cell traffic, which separates it from all four alternatives.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "The decline reflects a shift in the composition of the scWAT stromal compartment: beige-competent perivascular progenitors (PDGFRβ+/EBF2+/CD81+) are depleted with age while anti-adipogenic, beiging-suppressive fibro-adipogenic cells (CD142+ Areg-like, Dpp4+ fibro-inflammatory cells) expand. The tissue therefore lacks the cells from which new thermogenic adipocytes are recruited, irrespective of adrenergic input. Mechanism: Progenitor-pool remodelling: clonal depletion and loss of EBF2/PRDM16-primed chromatin in the beige-competent subset, plus paracrine inhibition (TGF-β/activin, periostin, WNT/DKK) secreted by the expanding suppressive subset that blocks de novo beige differentiation and also drives fibrosis that mechanically restricts the niche. Prediction: Single-cell/flow profiling of aged scWAT stroma shows a selective loss of CD81+/EBF2-high progenitors and expansion of CD142+ cells; transplanting young CD81+ progenitors into aged scWAT (or depleting CD142+ cells / blocking TGF-β) restores cold-induced UCP1+ adipocyte number. Critically, aged progenitors sorted and differentiated in vitro under identical adrenergic stimulation still beige poorly — proving a cell-intrinsic/compositional lesion rather than a signal-delivery lesion.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Age-related loss of thermogenic adipocytes in subcutaneous white adipose tissue (scWAT) is caused by a progressive die-back of sympathetic nerve terminals, which itself is driven by the loss of adipocyte-derived neurotrophic support. As adipocytes age they downregulate secreted neurotrophic/neuritogenic factors (e.g. NRG4, BDNF, S100B), the local axonal arbor retracts, and the noradrenergic signal needed to recruit beige adipocytes never reaches the progenitor niche. Mechanism: Reduced adipocyte-to-axon trophic signalling → retraction/pruning of tyrosine-hydroxylase-positive terminals and reduced terminal density per adipocyte → lower local norepinephrine delivery → failure of β3-adrenergic→cAMP→PKA→p38→PGC-1α/UCP1 induction after cold or β3-agonist challenge. The adipocyte defect is upstream; the neuron is the proximate executor. Prediction: In aged mice, whole-mount TH imaging shows reduced sympathetic arbor density in scWAT that precedes the fall in UCP1+ adipocytes, and aged scWAT is refractory to cold but still responds normally to a cell-autonomous bypass of the nerve (direct β3-agonist, forskolin, or dibutyryl-cAMP ex vivo). Adipocyte-specific restoration of the neurotrophic factor in old mice re-grows the arbor and restores cold-induced beiging; adipocyte-specific deletion in young mice phenocopies the aged arbor and the beiging defect. Denervation-independent interventions should not rescue if nerve loss is the sole lesion — so the discriminating result is rescue by re-innervation without any change in adipocyte β3 receptor levels.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42810392", "pmid": "42810392", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70721", "title": "Direct Pharmacological Activation of AMPK Extends Lifespan in Yeast, Worms and Flies.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-29", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal, cross-species effect of directly activating a defined metabolic regulator on lifespan, with supporting evidence for mammalian relevance.", "background": "Ageing is strongly influenced by conserved systems that coordinate cellular metabolism with nutrient and energy availability. Genetic studies have shown that altering metabolic regulation can affect lifespan in several model organisms. Pharmacological studies, however, often use compounds with multiple targets, making it difficult to attribute longevity effects to a specific mechanism. It therefore remained unclear whether selective engagement of a single conserved metabolic target could directly produce longevity benefits across species.", "question": "Can direct pharmacological activation of a conserved metabolic target extend lifespan across evolutionarily diverse organisms and induce longevity-associated changes in mammals?", "subject": "Direct metabolic target activation", "finding": "Direct pharmacological activation of AMPK with compound 991 extends lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Schizosaccharomyces pombe. In mice, 991 induces a proteomic profile associated with pro-longevity biology, supporting the translational potential of AMPK activation.", "key_points": [ "Direct AMPK activation by compound 991", "Lifespan extension in yeast, worms, and flies", "Conserved causal longevity effect across species", "Pro-longevity proteomic response in mice" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "The cross-species longevity effect of direct AMPK activation is mediated primarily by induction of macroautophagy and selective mitophagy, not by changes in feeding, body mass or glycaemia. Blocking autophagy initiation downstream of AMPK removes the lifespan benefit even though AMPK substrate phosphorylation remains intact. Mechanism: AMPK phosphorylates ULK1 at Ser317/Ser777 and inhibits mTORC1-dependent ULK1 Ser757 phosphorylation, licensing autophagosome formation; parallel phosphorylation of PINK1/Parkin-pathway components and of TFEB/HLH-30 expands lysosomal biogenesis. Enhanced clearance of damaged mitochondria and aggregation-prone proteins lowers mitochondrial ROS leak and inflammatory DAMP release, slowing the accumulation of age-associated damage. Prediction: In worms the lifespan gain is lost on bec-1/atg-18/hlh-30 knockdown; in mice conditional Atg7 or Ulk1 deletion (or Tfeb knockout) in liver, muscle and adipose abolishes the extension of median lifespan and the improvement of healthspan markers, while ACC phosphorylation and lowered hepatic lipogenesis persist. A metabolic-flux-only mechanism would predict retained benefit when autophagy is blocked.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "In mammals, direct AMPK activation produces longevity-associated changes that are tissue-partitioned: skeletal muscle and liver drive metabolic healthspan gains, but lifespan extension requires avoiding cardiac AMPK-γ-type glycogen accumulation and hypertrophy. Therefore β1-selective (liver/adipose-biased) activation extends lifespan while pan-β activation yields healthspan gains offset by cardiac remodelling. Mechanism: β1-containing AMPK complexes predominate in liver and adipose tissue, where activation lowers de novo lipogenesis, hepatic steatosis and ectopic lipid, and improves insulin sensitivity. β2-containing complexes dominate in heart and skeletal muscle, where chronic activation raises GLUT4-mediated glucose uptake and glycogen synthesis, reproducing the cardiac hypertrophy/glycogen storage phenotype of activating PRKAG2 mutations, which is life-limiting and masks the systemic benefit. Prediction: A β1-selective activator extends median and maximal lifespan in both sexes of a genetically heterogeneous mouse cohort with no rise in heart-weight/body-weight ratio or cardiac glycogen, whereas a pan-β activator at equi-efficacious liver exposure improves glucose tolerance, frailty index and epigenetic-clock age but shows flat or reduced survival with measurable cardiac glycogen. A purely dose-toxicity explanation predicts no isoform dissociation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Direct AMPK activation extends lifespan by engaging the same programme as dietary restriction and therefore does not add to it: the compound and DR are epistatic, and the compound's benefit appears only in animals on an unrestricted diet. Mechanism: AMPK is the obligatory energy-sensing node through which reduced nutrient intake is transduced into CRTC-1/CREB-dependent transcription in worms, FOXO/4E-BP-dependent translational remodelling in flies, and mTORC1 suppression plus PGC-1α-dependent mitochondrial remodelling in mammals. Pharmacological activation raises the same signal tonically, so once the pathway is saturated by DR no further gain is possible. Prediction: Lifespan of DR (or eat-2 mutant / intermittent-fasted) animals is not further extended by the activator, whereas ad libitum cohorts gain significantly; transcriptomic signatures of drug and DR overlap strongly (high rank-concordance in shared tissues). An independent, additive mechanism would instead show DR+drug exceeding either alone.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Direct allosteric activation of AMPK at the ADaM site (β1/β2-containing complexes) is sufficient, without upstream energy stress or off-target inhibition, to extend lifespan in C. elegans, Drosophila and mice. Lifespan extension requires an intact catalytic α-subunit, so the effect is attributable to AMPK kinase activity rather than to secondary targets of the compound. Mechanism: ADaM-site binding stabilises the active, Thr172-phosphorylated AMPK heterotrimer and protects it from phosphatases, raising basal AMPK activity at normal cellular AMP:ATP ratios. Sustained AMPK signalling phosphorylates ULK1 (autophagy initiation), raptor and TSC2 (mTORC1 suppression), ACC1/2 (lipogenesis suppression, raised fatty-acid oxidation) and TFEB/CRTC-1–type transcriptional nodes, producing a coordinated catabolic, autophagy-competent state that limits proteotoxic and lipotoxic damage with age. Prediction: Lifespan extension is abolished in aak-2/AMPKα loss-of-function worms, AMPKα-RNAi flies and inducible AMPKα1/α2 double-knockout mice, while a close structural analogue that lacks ADaM-site binding but retains the compound's known secondary activities (e.g. mild complex I or PDE inhibition) produces no lifespan gain. Mitochondrial-uncoupling or biguanide-type compounds would instead retain partial benefit in AMPK-null animals.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "The longevity benefit of direct AMPK activation is conferred by a time-limited developmental or early-adult window of pathway engagement rather than by continuous late-life dosing, and the durable component is encoded epigenetically. Mechanism: AMPK activation alters acetyl-CoA and NAD+ availability and phosphorylates chromatin-associated substrates (class IIa HDACs, EP300, H2B Ser36), resetting chromatin accessibility at FOXO/TFEB/PGC-1α target loci. The resulting transcriptional set-point persists after the compound is withdrawn, lowering the lifelong rate of damage accrual; starting late, after that chromatin state has drifted, cannot restore it. Prediction: Early-adult-only treatment (first ~20–25% of adult life, then washout) reproduces most of the lifespan extension of lifelong dosing, and treated-then-withdrawn animals retain the drug's ATAC-seq/DNA-methylation signature months later; late-life-only dosing improves acute metabolic markers but not survival. A purely acute pharmacodynamic mechanism predicts the opposite ordering, with benefit tracking current exposure.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42811497", "pmid": "42811497", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70738", "title": "Targeting Ero1L by Parthenolide Alleviates Cellular Senescence and Fibrosis of Localized Scleroderma by Regulating Mitochondria-Associated Endoplasmic Reticulum Membranes Stabilization.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-30", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism linking cellular senescence to fibrosis in an age-related pathological process and validates it through gain- and loss-of-function studies.", "background": "Localized scleroderma is characterized by excessive extracellular-matrix deposition and progressive skin fibrosis. Cellular senescence can promote persistent tissue remodeling and fibrotic disease through altered cell function and inflammatory signaling. Disturbances in organelle homeostasis have also been associated with both senescence and fibrosis. The causal molecular mechanisms connecting these processes in localized scleroderma, and whether they can be therapeutically reversed, remained incompletely understood.", "question": "What molecular mechanism drives cellular senescence and fibrosis in localized scleroderma, and can pharmacological disruption of that mechanism alleviate the disease phenotype?", "subject": "Senescence in localized scleroderma", "finding": "Parthenolide suppresses Ero1L, thereby normalizing Ero1L-mediated mitochondria-associated endoplasmic reticulum membrane function, regulating the IP3R1/Grp75/VDAC1 complex, and reducing mitochondrial damage, cellular senescence, and fibrosis. Ero1L overexpression reverses these protective effects, whereas Ero1L knockdown reproduces the anti-senescent and antifibrotic phenotype; ARG-449 is critical for parthenolide binding to Ero1L.", "key_points": [ "Ero1L causally promotes senescence and fibrosis", "Parthenolide directly suppresses Ero1L through binding involving ARG-449", "The mechanism involves MAM stabilization and the IP3R1/Grp75/VDAC1 complex", "Ero1L gain- and loss-of-function experiments establish causality", "Targeting this axis reduces mitochondrial damage and fibrotic pathology" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Loss of lamin B1 and consequent nuclear-envelope destabilization in localized scleroderma fibroblasts produces cytoplasmic chromatin fragments (CCFs) that activate cGAS–STING, generating a self-sustaining senescence–fibrosis circuit. Blocking the sensing step with a STING antagonist (H-151) or restoring nuclear-envelope integrity should uncouple senescence from ECM deposition. Mechanism: Mechanical stiffening of the lesional dermis plus oxidative stress downregulates LMNB1, weakening the nuclear lamina so that chromatin blebs bud off and are processed by autophagy-dependent CCF formation. Cytosolic CCFs engage cGAS, producing cGAMP and STING-dependent NF-κB-driven SASP. SASP-derived TGF-β and IL-6 increase matrix stiffness, which further suppresses LMNB1 — a mechano-chemical feed-forward loop that explains the plaque's centrifugal spread. Prediction: LMNB1 protein falls and γH2AX⁺/cGAS⁺ cytoplasmic chromatin foci rise specifically at the active lesional border; STING inhibition or Cgas knockout reduces SASP and dermal thickening without restoring LMNB1, while LMNB1 re-expression reduces both CCFs and fibrosis — ordering lamina loss upstream of STING. Stiffness-matched hydrogel culture should reproduce LMNB1 loss in healthy fibroblasts.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Chronic endoplasmic reticulum stress from the high secretory load of procollagen activates the PERK–ATF4–CHOP arm of the unfolded protein response in localized scleroderma fibroblasts, which drives senescence and, via ER-resident HSP47/ATF4 signaling, reinforces collagen secretion. PERK inhibition (GSK2606414) or an ER-stress chaperone (4-PBA, TUDCA) should break this loop and soften skin fibrosis. Mechanism: Misfolded procollagen accumulation in an overloaded ER sustains PERK autophosphorylation and eIF2α–ATF4 signaling. ATF4 transactivates CHOP, GDF15 and ER-oxidoreductases, raising ER-derived ROS and Ca²⁺ leak to mitochondria through MAM/IP3R–VDAC contacts, causing DNA damage and p21-driven senescence. ATF4 also upregulates HSP47 and the amino-acid supply needed for collagen prolyl hydroxylation, so the stressed ER paradoxically increases ECM output while the senescent secretome recruits inflammatory cells. Prediction: Lesional skin shows elevated p-PERK, p-eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP and HSP47 co-localizing with α-SMA⁺ fibroblasts; PERK inhibitor or 4-PBA reduces p16/p21, SASP and dermal collagen in bleomycin mice, while IRE1/XBP1 inhibition does not — isolating the PERK arm. ATF4 knockdown should lower collagen secretion without changing TGF-β receptor levels.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Blocked autophagic flux — specifically failure of autophagosome–lysosome fusion due to reduced TFEB nuclear translocation under persistent mTORC1 activity — causes accumulation of damaged organelles and p62 in localized scleroderma fibroblasts, producing senescence and profibrotic signaling. Restoring flux with rapamycin or a TFEB activator (trehalose, curcumin analogues) should reverse senescence and fibrosis. Mechanism: mTORC1 hyperactivity phosphorylates TFEB, keeping it cytoplasmic and lowering lysosomal biogenesis genes (CLEAR network). Undegraded p62 stabilizes NRF2-independent NF-κB signaling and sequesters KEAP1, while unremoved damaged mitochondria raise ROS, triggering DNA-damage-dependent p21/p16 senescence. Senescent fibroblasts secrete TGF-β1 and CTGF and resist apoptosis, so myofibroblasts persist and ECM turnover stalls. Prediction: Lesional fibroblasts accumulate LC3-II and p62 together with no further increase after bafilomycin (flux block), show cytoplasmic TFEB and raised p-S6K; rapamycin or TFEB overexpression clears p62, reduces SA-β-gal and collagen I, while ATG7 or TFEB knockdown abolishes the benefit — distinguishing flux failure from mere autophagy induction.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Excessive mitochondrial fission driven by DRP1 (DNM1L) recruitment to the outer mitochondrial membrane fragments mitochondria in localized scleroderma dermal fibroblasts, causing mtDNA release, cGAS–STING activation and a senescence-associated secretory phenotype that sustains TGF-β-dependent collagen deposition. Pharmacological inhibition of DRP1 (Mdivi-1 / P110) should restore mitochondrial network integrity, lower senescence burden and reduce dermal fibrosis in bleomycin-induced localized sclerodermic skin. Mechanism: TGF-β/ROS signaling promotes DRP1 phosphorylation at Ser616 and dephosphorylation at Ser637, increasing fission. Fragmented, depolarized mitochondria leak mtDNA into the cytosol, engaging cGAS–STING–TBK1–IRF3/NF-κB, which drives p16/p21 senescence and IL-6/TGF-β1/CTGF secretion. The secretome acts in a paracrine loop on neighbouring fibroblasts, locking in myofibroblast differentiation and ECM accumulation. Prediction: Lesional skin shows increased p-DRP1(S616), fragmented mitochondria by electron microscopy, cytosolic mtDNA and elevated STING/IRF3 phosphorylation relative to non-lesional skin; DRP1 inhibition or fibroblast-specific Dnm1l knockout reduces dermal thickness, hydroxyproline, p16/p21 and SASP cytokines, whereas STING agonism re-establishes fibrosis despite DRP1 inhibition (placing fission upstream of STING).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "Senescent dermal fibroblasts and endothelial cells in localized scleroderma survive through upregulated BCL-2-family and PI3K/AKT survival pathways, and their persistence is the proximate cause of continued ECM deposition; selectively removing them with senolytics (dasatinib + quercetin, or navitoclax) should reduce fibrosis even without correcting the originating organelle stress. Mechanism: Senescent cells resist apoptosis via senescent-cell anti-apoptotic pathways (BCL-2/BCL-xL/BCL-W, PI3K–AKT–FOXO, p21-dependent survival), accumulating in lesional dermis. Their SASP (TGF-β1, CTGF, IL-6, PAI-1, TIMP-1) drives neighbouring fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transition and simultaneously inhibits MMP-mediated collagen degradation, shifting net ECM balance toward deposition. Clearance removes the paracrine source, allowing resident fibroblasts to revert and matrix turnover to resume. Prediction: Lesional dermis contains p16^INK4a⁺/SA-β-gal⁺ fibroblasts whose density correlates with modified Localized Scleroderma Skin Severity Index and dermal thickness; senolytic treatment in bleomycin-induced murine localized scleroderma reduces p16⁺ cell number, SASP transcripts, dermal thickness and hydroxyproline, while a non-senolytic anti-IL-6 antibody lowers inflammation but not the senescent-cell burden or collagen — showing clearance, not cytokine blockade, is the effective step. Transplanting senescent fibroblasts into healthy skin should induce localized fibrosis.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42821663", "pmid": "42821663", "doi": "10.1126/science.aed8207", "title": "Hypertension fuels osteoarthritis through neuroendocrine signaling.", "journal": "Science", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism by which hypertension accelerates an age-related degenerative joint disease.", "background": "Osteoarthritis is a common degenerative disease whose incidence and severity increase with age. Mechanical damage and age-associated changes in joint tissues create susceptibility to progressive cartilage loss. Systemic metabolic disorders, including hypertension, have been associated with greater osteoarthritis risk and severity. However, it was unclear whether elevated blood pressure actively promotes joint degeneration through a defined biological mechanism rather than merely sharing risk factors with osteoarthritis.", "question": "Through what causal mechanism does hypertension accelerate osteoarthritis in joints predisposed by aging or mechanical injury?", "subject": "Hypertension-driven osteoarthritis", "finding": "Hypertension-associated circulating arginine vasopressin activates up-regulated AVPR1A in osteoarthritis-primed chondrocytes, driving NR4A3-dependent catabolic signaling and suppressing anabolic regulation. Genetic deletion or pharmacological inhibition of AVPR1A prevents the hypertension-induced acceleration of osteoarthritis.", "key_points": [ "Hypertension elevates osteoarthritis progression", "OA-primed chondrocytes up-regulate AVPR1A", "Circulating AVP activates AVPR1A", "NR4A3 mediates the downstream catabolic program", "AVPR1A disruption protects cartilage" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "High blood pressure damages the small blood vessels of the subchondral bone. It causes vascular remodelling and abnormal H-type angiogenesis, which leads to bone sclerosis and microdamage. Signals from this abnormal bone then break down the cartilage above it. Mechanism: Hypertensive endothelial dysfunction and arteriolar remodelling cause cycles of low oxygen and reoxygenation in the subchondral bone. These cycles raise HIF-1α and VEGF and expand CD31hi/Emcnhi (H-type) vessels. Osteoclasts at the injured site release TGF-β1, which together with the new vessels promotes aberrant bone formation. The resulting stiffer bone sends mechanical and molecular signals (VEGF, TGF-β, PGE2) through the osteochondral junction into the cartilage. Prediction: Hypertensive mice that have had a joint injury should show more H-type vessels, higher TGF-β1 and more subchondral sclerosis before cartilage loss appears. If anti-VEGF or a TGF-β1 neutralising antibody is delivered to the subchondral bone, or HIF-1α is deleted in endothelial cells, the extra osteoarthritis caused by hypertension should be prevented, even though blood pressure stays high.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Hypertension sets up a low-grade inflammation driven by sympathetic nerves and the immune system. This sensitises the synovium of an injured or aged joint, and the inflamed synovium releases cytokines that break down cartilage. Mechanism: Sympathetic overactivity and angiotensin II prime circulating monocytes and push synovial macrophages towards the inflammatory M1 state. Norepinephrine acting on β2-adrenergic receptors and AT1R signalling together activate the NLRP3 inflammasome, which releases IL-1β, TNF-α and IL-6. Th17 and IL-17 responses, which are typical of hypertension, add to this. The cytokines then raise MMP and ADAMTS activity in the cartilage. Prediction: After joint injury, hypertensive animals should develop more synovitis and more M1 macrophages, with higher IL-1β and IL-17 in synovial fluid. Removing macrophages from the joint (clodronate liposomes), deleting Nlrp3 in myeloid cells or blocking IL-17A should abolish the hypertension effect. Renal denervation should reduce it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Hypertension speeds up osteoarthritis because angiotensin II, raised systemically and in the joint, activates AT1 receptors on chondrocytes. This drives cartilage breakdown, and the effect is strongest in cartilage that aging or injury has already primed. Mechanism: Angiotensin II binds AT1R on chondrocytes. AT1R signals through Gq/PKC and NADPH oxidase (NOX2/NOX4) to produce reactive oxygen species. These activate NF-κB and MAPK, which raise MMP13 and ADAMTS5 and lower SOX9, COL2A1 and aggrecan. Injured or aged chondrocytes make more AT1R, so the same hormone level does more damage in a predisposed joint. Prediction: Two forms of hypertension should give different results. Angiotensin II-induced hypertension, but not blood pressure raised to the same level by a pathway that does not use angiotensin II (such as phenylephrine or a high-salt DOCA model), should worsen cartilage loss after destabilization of the medial meniscus (DMM) and in aged mice. The effect should disappear when Agtr1a is deleted only in chondrocytes (Col2a1-CreERT2) or when the mice receive losartan, even though blood pressure stays high.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Hypertension disrupts the normal recovery of joint blood flow after mechanical loading. Repeated ischaemia and reperfusion then cause oxidative and endothelin-1 driven damage to the cartilage and to the tissue at the cartilage-bone junction. These effects add to the damage from aging and injury. Mechanism: Two hypertension-related changes reduce subchondral perfusion: endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) is uncoupled, and endothelin-1 and ET-A receptor signalling increase. When a loaded joint is unloaded, this produces bursts of ischaemia followed by reperfusion. The mitochondria of chondrocytes and osteocytes release ROS, which cause lipid peroxidation, ferroptosis-like chondrocyte death and calcification of the tidemark (the boundary between cartilage and calcified cartilage). Prediction: Blocking ET-A receptors (ambrisentan) or restoring eNOS coupling (tetrahydrobiopterin, BH4) should rescue subchondral perfusion and prevent the extra osteoarthritis in hypertensive DMM mice without normalising blood pressure. The cartilage should show less lipid peroxidation (4-HNE) and less evidence of ferroptosis (lower GPX4 loss and less cell death).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Hypertension raises the hydrostatic pressure of fluid within the joint and around the cartilage. Chondrocytes sense this as a mechanical stress through Piezo1 and TRPV4 channels, which leads to calcium overload, senescence and loss of cartilage matrix. Aged or injured cartilage has a weaker matrix that buffers this pressure poorly. Mechanism: Higher capillary pressure in the synovium and subchondral bone increases fluid filtration and the pressure of fluid in the cartilage. Chondrocytes respond through Piezo1/TRPV4, causing Ca2+ influx. Calcium overload activates calpain and YAP, damages mitochondria and switches on p16/p21 senescence, which produces a catabolic secretory programme (SASP). Prediction: Joints of hypertensive animals should have higher measured intra-articular pressure and more p16+ chondrocytes. Deleting Piezo1 only in chondrocytes, or injecting the Piezo1 blocker GsMTx4 into the joint, should cancel the extra cartilage damage caused by hypertension without lowering blood pressure.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42822442", "pmid": "42822442", "doi": "10.1016/j.immuni.2026.09.004", "title": "Glucose-deprived tumor microenvironment activates AMP-activated protein kinase to drive adoptively transferred T helper 9 cell senescence.", "journal": "Immunity", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism by which nutrient deprivation induces cellular senescence and impairs antitumor immunity.", "background": "Solid tumors create metabolically stressful microenvironments in which rapidly proliferating malignant and immune cells compete for limited nutrients. Adoptively transferred immune cells often lose function and fail to persist under these conditions, limiting therapeutic efficacy. Cellular senescence can produce durable functional decline in immune cells, but the metabolic signals that initiate this state within tumors have remained incompletely understood. Identifying the causal signaling events could reveal ways to preserve therapeutic immune-cell activity.", "question": "How does nutrient scarcity in the solid-tumor microenvironment cause senescence and loss of persistence in adoptively transferred antitumor immune cells?", "subject": "Nutrient-induced immune-cell senescence", "finding": "Glucose deprivation activates AMPK in transferred Th9 cells, initiating a ZAK–NIK cascade that suppresses noncanonical NF-κB signaling and IL-9 production, thereby driving cellular senescence. Restoring glucose or targeting ZAK reduces senescence, improves Th9-cell persistence, and enhances CAR-Th9 efficacy against solid tumors.", "key_points": [ "Glucose deprivation causes Th9-cell senescence", "AMPK is activated by glucose scarcity", "The ZAK–NIK cascade suppresses noncanonical NF-κB signaling and IL-9", "ZAK targeting rejuvenates Th9 cells and improves antitumor efficacy" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "The initiating sensor is amino-acid-restriction signaling through GCN2 and ATF4, which under sustained tumor nutrient scarcity switches from an adaptive integrated stress response to a terminal program by inducing CDKN1A and the transcription factor-driven senescence module, while simultaneously shutting down mTORC1-dependent biosynthesis needed for clonal expansion. Mechanism: Uncharged tRNA from arginine/tryptophan/cystine depletion activates GCN2–eIF2α–ATF4; prolonged ATF4 signaling, in cooperation with CHOP and with mTORC1 off, represses MYC and E2F targets, induces p21 and DDIT3-dependent SASP genes, and blocks the metabolic rewiring required for memory formation — producing stable arrest rather than reversible quiescence. Prediction: GCN2 loss or an eIF2α-phosphorylation-resistant allele in transferred T cells prevents p21 induction and senescence in nutrient-poor tumors and improves persistence, while brief pharmacologic ISR activation is protective — demonstrating a duration-dependent switch; selectively restoring single limiting amino acids (arginine, cystine) reverses the phenotype only if given before the ATF4 program is epigenetically consolidated.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Chronic nutrient scarcity causes transferred T cells to shunt lipid rather than glucose carbon into mitochondria under conditions of blocked electron flux, producing persistent mitochondrial ROS and depolarized, fragmented mitochondria that are not cleared; this failure of mitophagy, not the energy deficit per se, is what converts metabolic stress into irreversible senescence. Mechanism: Nutrient limitation activates AMPK but tumor-derived signals (lactate, low pH, adenosine) suppress PINK1/Parkin-dependent mitophagic flux; damaged mitochondria accumulate, leaking mtDNA into the cytosol; cGAS–STING and NF-κB activation yields a SASP-like secretome and p16-high, proliferation-arrested cells with low spare respiratory capacity. Prediction: Enforcing mitophagy (Parkin overexpression, urolithin A, or mitochondria-targeted antioxidant) in transferred cells preserves persistence and antitumor control without changing nutrient availability, whereas simply increasing ATP supply does not; cGAS or STING deletion in the T cells blocks the senescence secretome while leaving mitochondrial damage intact, dissociating damage from the senescence program.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Nutrient scarcity drives senescence through a lipid-signaling route: limited glucose forces reliance on tumor-abundant oxidized and long-chain fatty acids, and CD36-mediated uptake of oxidized lipids triggers lipid peroxidation that engages p38MAPK and cPLA2 signaling to establish the senescent state. Mechanism: Low glucose upregulates CD36 and fatty-acid import; oxidized phospholipids and 4-HNE adducts accumulate, consuming glutathione and activating p38MAPK–p53–p21; concurrent cholesterol loading in the ER triggers stress and PD-1/exhaustion-plus-senescence hybrid phenotype with reduced telomerase activity and sustained growth arrest. Prediction: CD36 deletion or GPX4 overexpression in adoptively transferred cells prevents senescence markers and preserves persistence specifically in lipid-rich, glucose-poor tumors, and the protection is lost if cells are given oxidized-LDL-free but equally glucose-poor conditions (showing the lipid, not the glucose deficit, is causal); p38 inhibition phenocopies the rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Glucose and glutamine restriction in the tumor microenvironment depletes the mitochondrial TCA-cycle carbon needed to sustain alpha-ketoglutarate production in adoptively transferred T cells, and the resulting fall in the αKG/succinate ratio inactivates αKG-dependent TET and JmjC demethylases. This installs a self-reinforcing repressive epigenetic state at effector and stemness loci that manifests as senescence and failure to persist. Mechanism: Nutrient-limited anaplerosis lowers intracellular αKG while succinate and 2-hydroxyglutarate accumulate; TET2 and KDM6/KDM4 family enzymes lose cofactor-driven activity; DNA and H3K27/H3K9 methylation increase at TCF7, IL7R and effector-cytokine loci and decrease at CDKN2A-repressing elements, locking in a senescence-associated transcriptional program independent of continued antigen signaling. Prediction: Cell-permeable alpha-ketoglutarate (or glutamine-independent anaplerotic supply) given only during the nutrient-restricted window prevents the senescence phenotype and restores persistence, while isocitrate or equal-osmolarity carbon donors that do not raise αHG/αKG do not; TET2-knockout transferred cells become refractory to the αKG rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Competition for extracellular methionine, rather than glucose, is the proximal trigger: tumor cells outcompete transferred T cells for methionine, collapsing the SAM/SAH ratio and specifically disabling the H3K36me3/H3K4me3 marks required to maintain proliferative, non-senescent chromatin. Mechanism: Tumor SLC43A2-driven methionine uptake lowers T-cell intracellular methionine and SAM; low SAM/SAH suppresses SETD2 and MLL-family methyltransferases; loss of H3K36me3 impairs DNA mismatch repair and permits replication-associated DNA damage, which activates ATM–p53–p21 and drives a DNA-damage-dependent senescence program with SASP output. Prediction: Methionine supplementation, tumor-restricted SLC43A2 knockdown, or T-cell overexpression of a high-affinity methionine transporter each prevent γH2AX accumulation and senescence markers in transferred cells, and SETD2 re-expression or H3K36me3 restoration rescues persistence even when extracellular methionine stays low — effects not reproduced by restoring glucose.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42826184", "pmid": "42826184", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeg1622", "title": "Aging-associated SATB1 deficiency remodels 3D genome architecture and transcriptional programs in naive CD4+ T cells.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-02", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism linking ageing-associated loss of a chromatin organizer to altered genome architecture and immune-cell dysfunction.", "background": "Three-dimensional genome organization helps regulate transcription by partitioning chromosomes into domains and controlling contacts between regulatory elements and gene promoters. Ageing is accompanied by widespread transcriptional dysregulation, including chronic inflammation and impaired immune function. Changes in chromatin structure have been observed during ageing, but whether they actively drive age-related gene-expression programs rather than merely accompany them has remained unclear. The molecular mechanisms connecting altered genome topology to physiological decline are also poorly understood.", "question": "What causal molecular mechanism remodels three-dimensional genome organization during ageing and thereby promotes age-associated inflammatory and activation-related transcription?", "subject": "Age-related genome remodeling", "finding": "Age-associated reduction of SATB1 in naive CD4+ T cells weakens TAD boundaries and expands the range of CTCF-mediated interactions without changing CTCF occupancy, producing enhancer-promoter rewiring and increased expression of proinflammatory and proactivation genes. Conditional SATB1 deletion recapitulates these ageing-associated architectural and transcriptional changes, establishing SATB1 deficiency as a causal contributor.", "key_points": [ "SATB1 expression declines with age", "SATB1 normally constrains CTCF-mediated chromatin interactions", "SATB1 loss weakens TAD boundaries and rewires enhancer-promoter contacts", "Architectural remodeling activates inflammatory and T-cell activation genes", "Conditional SATB1 deletion phenocopies ageing" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Chronic low-grade activation signalling in aged cells causes persistent, self-reinforcing enhancer-hub (A-compartment clique) formation around inflammatory super-enhancers, and these hubs, not individual enhancers, are the causal unit of inflammaging transcription. Mechanism: Repeated NF-kB/STAT activation deposits durable H3K27ac and BRD4/Mediator condensates; condensate-driven multi-way clustering of distal enhancers persists after the stimulus, locking promoters into high-output hubs. Hub persistence is maintained by phase-separated coactivator condensates rather than by sequence-specific signals. Prediction: Multi-contact methods (Pore-C/SPRITE) reveal higher-order multi-way enhancer cliques at inflammatory loci that exist in old but not young cells even unstimulated; transient BRD4 or Mediator condensate disruption durably dissolves the clique and lowers expression in old cells, with little effect on matched young cells.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Progressive loss of lamin B1 and of LADs at the nuclear periphery releases heterochromatic immune-effector and activation loci into the nuclear interior, where they gain contacts with active A-compartment hubs and become transcriptionally competent. Mechanism: Age-associated lamin B1 decline and H3K9me2/3 erosion detach LAD-resident loci (KLRG1, GZMB, cytokine and interferon-stimulated clusters, repeat elements) from the lamina; B-to-A compartment switching places them in active hubs, enabling constitutive low-level transcription and retroelement-driven cGAS-STING signalling. Prediction: Single-cell DamID/Lamin B1 ChIP plus Hi-C compartment calling shows age-specific B-to-A switches concentrated at activation-related loci, and restoring lamin B1 (or tethering those loci to the lamina with a CRISPR-lamina anchor) suppresses their expression and the downstream interferon signature without globally altering compartments.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Age-dependent decline in cohesin loading/turnover regulators (NIPBL, WAPL, or SMC3 acetylation balance) shifts loop extrusion dynamics, redistributing loops from cell-identity enhancer-promoter pairs toward stress- and activation-responsive genes. Mechanism: Reduced NIPBL lowers extrusion frequency, shortening and sparsifying identity loops, while altered WAPL/ESCO1 balance lengthens residence of remaining loops; the net redistribution de-insulates and over-loops signal-responsive promoters whose activation depends on promiscuous enhancer capture, raising inflammatory output while weakening lineage programs. Prediction: Quantitative loop calling in aged tissue shows loss of short identity loops with gain of long loops at inflammatory genes, correlated with measured NIPBL/WAPL protein levels; restoring NIPBL in old cells reverses both the loop redistribution and the inflammatory signature, whereas CTCF restoration alone does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Activation of aged-derepressed transposable elements creates new CTCF-bound and enhancer-like anchors that physically rewire the genome, inserting age-specific loops into inflammatory loci. Mechanism: Loss of KRAB-ZFP/TRIM28/SETDB1 and DNA methylation at L1/ERV/Alu elements exposes their embedded CTCF motifs and TF binding sites; these become functional loop anchors and enhancers, forming de novo contacts with nearby interferon and cytokine promoters and simultaneously generating cytoplasmic nucleic acids that amplify the same program. Prediction: Age-gained loop anchors are significantly enriched for specific derepressed TE families and coincide with newly methylation-free CTCF motifs inside those elements; CRISPRi silencing of individual derepressed TE anchors removes the age-specific loop and reduces the linked gene's expression, independent of changes in cytosolic nucleic-acid sensing.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Age-related loss of CTCF occupancy at weak, methylation-sensitive boundary sites causally weakens TAD insulation around inflammatory gene clusters, allowing new enhancer-promoter contacts that raise basal inflammatory transcription. Mechanism: Declining CTCF expression plus age-gained CpG methylation in CTCF motifs reduces loop-extrusion blocking; cohesin extrudes past degraded boundaries, merging enhancer-rich domains with NF-kB/AP-1 target promoters (IL1B, IL6, CXCL cluster), priming higher basal and stimulus-evoked expression. Prediction: Micro-C in young vs old immune cells shows boundary insulation loss specifically at low-occupancy, hypermethylated CTCF sites adjacent to induced inflammatory genes; targeted CTCF re-tethering (dCas9-CTCF) or CTCF overexpression at those boundaries restores insulation and lowers inflammatory transcription, while random boundary targeting does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42839094", "pmid": "42839094", "doi": "10.1038/s43587-026-01223-x", "title": "Longer lipids mark aging and constrain lifespan.", "journal": "Nat Aging", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-06", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper identifies a conserved lipid-remodeling process and experimentally demonstrates that manipulating its regulator alters lifespan.", "background": "Ageing is accompanied by widespread changes in metabolism and cellular composition. Lipids support membrane organization, signaling and energy storage, and age-associated lipid disturbances have been observed across many tissues and organisms. Some lipid changes correlate with age-related disease and physiological decline, but their functional importance remains uncertain. A central unresolved question is whether conserved lipid remodeling actively drives ageing or merely reflects it.", "question": "Does a conserved form of lipid remodeling actively constrain lifespan, and what molecular regulator controls it?", "subject": "Lipid remodeling and lifespan", "finding": "Ageing produces a conserved shift toward longer lipid acyl chains, with depletion of shorter lipid species. Plb1 promotes this remodeling, and its knockdown in C. elegans reverses lipid elongation and extends lifespan in a lipid-length-dependent manner, supporting a causal role for lipid chain length in limiting longevity.", "key_points": [ "Ageing shifts lipid composition toward longer acyl chains across species and tissues.", "The remodeling is ratiometric, combining accumulation of longer lipids with depletion of shorter species.", "Plb1 regulates age-associated lipid chain elongation.", "Plb1 knockdown reverses lipid elongation and extends C. elegans lifespan.", "Lifespan extension depends on lipid chain length." ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "Age-associated loss of membrane phospholipid remodeling through the Lands cycle actively constrains lifespan, and it is controlled by the acyltransferase MBOAT7/LPCAT3 (MBOA-7/MBOA-6 in worms). As a result, lysophospholipids and oxidized acyl chains accumulate. Boosting Lands-cycle remodeling should restore membrane homeostasis and extend lifespan. Mechanism: Ageing reduces LPCAT3/MBOAT7 expression and activity, which falls partly downstream of reduced nuclear-receptor signaling (LXR/NHR-49) and partly through oxidative inactivation. Phospholipase A2 still releases damaged and oxidized acyl chains, but the lysophospholipids left behind are not efficiently re-esterified with fresh PUFA. Lysophospholipids and oxidized phospholipids then build up. These act as damage signals that activate innate immune and inflammasome pathways, impair membrane repair and promote ferroptosis. Prediction: With age, the ratio of lysophospholipid to phospholipid and the amount of oxidized PC will increase in a conserved manner as MBOAT7/LPCAT3 levels fall. Adult-specific overexpression of mboa-6 or mboa-7 will normalize membrane acyl composition and extend lifespan. Knockdown will shorten lifespan and raise lysophospholipids. The longevity effect of NHR-49 activation will depend on these acyltransferases. A catalytically dead form of the enzyme will fail to rescue knockdown animals.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Ceramides and other sphingolipids accumulate with age in a conserved way and actively limit lifespan. The rate-limiting enzyme serine palmitoyltransferase (SPT) controls this build-up, and its negative regulators ORMDL proteins lose their restraint with age. Restoring ORMDL-mediated inhibition of SPT should lower ceramide levels and extend lifespan. Mechanism: Ageing weakens the feedback in which ORMDL senses ceramide and inhibits SPT. Sphingolipid synthesis therefore runs unchecked, and C16–C24 ceramides accumulate in the ER, mitochondria and plasma membrane. Excess ceramide inhibits Akt and insulin signaling, triggers mitochondrial outer-membrane permeabilization and stiffens lipid rafts. This drives senescence, inflammation and loss of proteostasis. Prediction: Tissue ceramides and SPT flux will rise with age as ORMDL inhibition of SPT weakens. Partial SPT inhibition with myriocin or by knocking down sptl-1, or overexpressing ORMDL, will extend lifespan in worms, flies and mice. An SPT mutant that ORMDL cannot inhibit will shorten lifespan and block the effect. Directly supplying ceramide will reverse the extension.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "A conserved age-dependent build-up of triacylglycerol (TAG) and lipid droplets outside adipose tissue, which comes at the expense of membrane phospholipids, actively constrains lifespan. It is driven by persistent activation of the SREBP1/SBP-1 lipogenic regulator. Damping SREBP processing in later life should rebalance lipid partitioning and extend lifespan. Mechanism: With age, SREBP1/SBP-1 processing rises: COPII/SCAP gating is lost, and mTORC1 and insulin signaling remain active. This raises de novo lipogenesis and the activity of DGAT, the enzyme that makes TAG. Acyl chains are diverted from phospholipid remodeling into stored TAG. Lipid droplets then crowd out mitochondria, lipophagy and lysosomal function decline, and lipotoxic intermediates such as DAG and ceramide accumulate. The resulting chronic stress and inflammation reduce survival. Prediction: Nuclear (processed) SREBP1/SBP-1 levels and ectopic TAG will rise with age across species and correlate with remaining lifespan in individual animals. Adult-onset knockdown of sbp-1 or DGAT, or a forced increase in lipophagy, will extend lifespan. Expressing a constitutively processed form of SREBP will shorten lifespan and cancel the benefit of dietary restriction and germline-loss longevity. The extension will require intact lysosomal lipolysis by LIPL-4 (lipl-4).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "An age-associated, evolutionarily conserved rise in membrane phospholipid saturation, meaning fewer polyunsaturated (PUFA) acyl chains and more saturated or monounsaturated ones, actively limits lifespan. The decline of the PUFA elongase ELOVL2 (ELO-2 in worms) drives it. Restoring ELOVL2 activity should extend lifespan, and blocking it should shorten lifespan. Mechanism: ELOVL2 is progressively silenced with age through promoter hypermethylation (one of the strongest epigenetic-clock CpGs), and its worm homolog loses expression too. As a result, fewer C22–C24 PUFAs, such as DHA, are made and incorporated into phosphatidylcholine (PC) and phosphatidylethanolamine (PE). The loss stiffens ER and mitochondrial membranes, which impairs ER proteostasis, the UPR(ER) and electron-transport efficiency. It also blunts signaling from PUFA-derived lipids such as resolvins. Together these accelerate decline across tissues. Prediction: Lipidomics will show a monotonic, conserved age-related drop in PUFA chain length and unsaturation across worms, flies and mouse tissues that tracks ELOVL2 levels. Inducible ELOVL2/elo-2 overexpression started in mid-life, or supplying its very-long-chain PUFA product, will restore membrane composition and extend lifespan and healthspan. Knockdown will shorten lifespan and phenocopy aged membranes. Feeding the precursor fatty acids will not rescue knockdown animals, whereas feeding the product will.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Ether lipids (plasmalogens) decline with age in a conserved way. This loss is a causal constraint on lifespan, set by the peroxisomal rate-limiting enzyme FAR1 together with the ether-lipid synthesis enzymes AGPS/GNPAT (ADS-1, ACL-7 and FARD-1 in worms). Maintaining ether-lipid synthesis should extend lifespan. Mechanism: Peroxisomal import and function decline with age, so less fatty alcohol is made by FAR1. Plasmalogen synthesis falls, and the cell loses its lipid antioxidant buffer, since vinyl-ether bonds act as sacrificial ROS scavengers. It also loses curvature-promoting lipids needed for synaptic and mitochondrial membrane function. Membranes become more vulnerable to lipid peroxidation and ferroptosis-like cell death, which drives tissue decline. Prediction: Ether-lipid levels will fall with age in worms, flies and mouse brain and liver, and the drop will precede functional decline. Loss of fard-1, acl-7 or ads-1 will shorten lifespan and block the longevity benefit of metformin and dietary restriction. Overexpressing FAR1 or feeding alkylglycerol will extend lifespan and lower lipid peroxidation. The extension will be abolished by deleting a downstream synthesis step but not by ferroptosis inhibitors, which would already phenocopy it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42841227", "pmid": "42841227", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70750", "title": "Age-Associated Gut Microbiota Dysbiosis Impairs Antiviral Defense During Influenza Virus Infection and Identifies Acetate as a Protective Mediator in Senescent Human Lung Cells.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally identifies and mechanistically validates a microbiota-derived mediator that improves antiviral defense in an ageing-associated cellular model.", "background": "Older individuals are more susceptible to severe influenza and often mount less effective antiviral immune responses. Ageing also alters the composition and metabolic activity of the gut microbiota, potentially affecting immune function at distant organs. Microbial metabolites are known to influence host immunity and gene regulation, but their contribution to age-related loss of antiviral protection remains poorly understood. It was therefore unclear whether altered microbial metabolism during ageing directly contributes to defective responses against respiratory viral infection.", "question": "Do age-related changes in gut microbial metabolism causally impair antiviral defense during influenza infection, and through what host mechanism can this deficit be counteracted?", "subject": "Ageing gut–lung antiviral defense", "finding": "Age-associated gut microbiota dysbiosis reduces microbial acetate-production capacity during influenza infection, while acetate supplementation suppresses viral replication and inflammation in senescent human lung fibroblasts. This protection is associated with FFAR2/FFAR3 signaling and increased histone H3 acetylation, supporting acetate as a mechanistic mediator of the ageing gut–lung axis.", "key_points": [ "Ageing-associated dysbiosis reduces acetate-producing microbial functions", "Acetate lowers influenza viral replication in senescent lung fibroblasts", "Acetate attenuates inflammatory responses", "Protection involves FFAR2/FFAR3 signaling", "Protection is associated with enhanced histone H3 acetylation" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Age-related microbial metabolites impair antiviral defense by epigenetically reprogramming bone-marrow progenitors: altered levels of one-carbon/methyl-donor and acyl-CoA metabolites of microbial origin change histone and DNA methylation at interferon-response loci, producing myeloid cells born refractory to antiviral activation. Mechanism: Microbially derived methionine/folate-cycle intermediates and SCFA-derived acetyl-/propionyl-CoA set the substrate pool for HDACs, HATs and methyltransferases in HSPCs. In aged hosts the shifted metabolite pool drives chromatin closure at Irf7/Stat1/Isg15 enhancers in granulocyte–monocyte progenitors, so the defect is cell-intrinsic and transferable with bone marrow rather than resident only in the lung. Prediction: Bone marrow from aged mice transplanted into young recipients confers influenza susceptibility, and ATAC-seq/ChIP of aged GMPs shows reduced accessibility and H3K27ac at ISG enhancers; correcting the metabolite (butyrate or methyl-donor restoration) before transplant reopens these loci and transfers protection, while germ-free ageing prevents the chromatin shift.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Loss of microbial tryptophan catabolism with age — fewer indole derivatives such as indole-3-aldehyde and indole-3-propionate — deprives the lung of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) ligands needed for barrier-protective IL-22 and antiviral epithelial programmes; AHR agonist supply counteracts the deficit. Mechanism: Ageing shifts tryptophan flux from microbial indole production toward host kynurenine. Reduced AHR ligand availability lowers IL-22 from lung ILC3/γδ T cells and weakens epithelial regeneration, mucin and antimicrobial peptide programmes, so influenza causes greater epithelial loss, barrier breakdown and secondary bacterial pneumonia. Prediction: Aged mice given Lactobacillus reuteri (indole-3-aldehyde producer) or dietary indole-3-propionate regain IL-22 and epithelial repair gene expression and survive influenza better; the benefit disappears in Ahr−/− or Il22−/− hosts, and the kynurenine/indole ratio in serum predicts survival across individual aged animals.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Age-associated expansion of bacterial bile-acid metabolism (increased secondary bile acids such as deoxycholate/lithocholate) actively suppresses mucosal interferon tone, and blocking this signal restores influenza resistance. Mechanism: Secondary bile acids generated by bai-operon-bearing commensals circulate to the lung and engage TGR5/GPBAR1 and FXR on alveolar macrophages and epithelium, raising cAMP–PKA signalling, which dampens tonic IFN-λ/ISG expression and delays the interferon response to infection. The result is a wider early replication window for influenza in aged hosts. Prediction: Aged mice show elevated serum/BAL secondary bile acids that correlate inversely with baseline ISG expression; antibiotic ablation of 7α-dehydroxylating bacteria, a TGR5 antagonist, or bile-acid sequestrant restores early IFN-λ induction and reduces viral load, whereas feeding deoxycholate to young mice reproduces the aged-susceptible phenotype.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Ageing increases microbial degradation of host- and diet-derived nicotinamide/NAD precursors and raises uraemic-type metabolites (e.g. TMAO, p-cresol sulfate), lowering NAD+ in lung immune cells; restoring NAD+ in the host counteracts the antiviral deficit independently of microbiota composition. Mechanism: Expanded nicotinamide-deaminating and aromatic-fermenting commensals consume NAD precursors and generate metabolites that promote oxidative stress and CD38 induction. Falling NAD+ in alveolar macrophages and T cells impairs sirtuin-dependent mitochondrial function and the energetically costly interferon and cytotoxic programmes, limiting viral clearance. Prediction: Aged lungs show lower NAD+ and higher CD38 that track with microbial nicotinamidase abundance; nicotinamide riboside or a CD38 inhibitor restores viral clearance and survival in aged mice even when the aged microbiota is left intact, and colonising young mice with aged microbiota lowers lung NAD+ before infection.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Ageing reduces gut microbial production of short-chain fatty acids (notably butyrate), and this loss causally impairs antiviral defense in the lung during influenza infection. Restoring butyrate signalling in the host — pharmacologically or by transferring a young/SCFA-producing microbiota — rescues antiviral protection in aged animals. Mechanism: Diminished abundance of fibre-fermenting commensals lowers luminal and systemic butyrate. Butyrate acts on haematopoietic precursors and lung-resident myeloid cells via GPR41/43 and HDAC inhibition, tuning the differentiation of monocytes into patrolling/antiviral phenotypes and limiting damaging neutrophil influx. Without it, aged mice generate excessive tissue-damaging inflammation with weaker type I/III interferon-dependent viral control, raising viral load and mortality. Prediction: Faecal transfer from young to aged mice, or oral butyrate/tributyrin supplementation starting before challenge, lowers lung viral titre and mortality in aged mice; the rescue is abolished in Ffar2/Ffar3-deficient hosts or by myeloid-specific blockade, and germ-free mice colonised with aged microbiota are protected by butyrate but not by fibre alone.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42842666", "pmid": "42842666", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh3785", "title": "Human trilayer engineered blood vessel reveals influence of fibroblasts on disease progression in model of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-07", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies causal, cell-specific mechanisms driving vascular pathology in the accelerated-ageing disorder Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome.", "background": "Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome is a premature-ageing disorder caused by an LMNA mutation and is characterized by severe, early-onset vascular disease. Its vascular pathology includes extracellular-matrix abnormalities, fibrosis, collagen accumulation and inflammation. Blood-vessel models have often examined individual vascular compartments in isolation, limiting understanding of how interactions among the vessel wall layers produce disease. The cellular origins of the distinct pathological features and the extent to which they depend directly on the causal mutation remained unresolved.", "question": "How do the different cellular compartments of the vascular wall causally contribute to distinct features of Hutchinson-Gilford progeria vascular pathology?", "subject": "Progeria vascular pathology", "finding": "In trilayer engineered blood vessels, HGPS fibroblasts causally promoted extracellular-matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling, while HGPS smooth muscle cells drove collagen accumulation and endothelial cells drove inflammation. Correcting the HGPS-associated mutation by base editing restored many pathological characteristics toward healthy levels.", "key_points": [ "Trilayer vessels separated cell-specific causal effects", "Fibroblasts drove matrix dysregulation and fibrotic signaling", "Smooth muscle cells promoted collagen accumulation", "Endothelial cells promoted inflammation", "Mutation correction reversed multiple disease features" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "The distinct features of the disease are compartment-separable rather than a single cascade: medial degeneration, fibrotic matrix remodelling and inflammation each trace to a different cellular origin, so no single-cell-type model reproduces the whole pathology and correcting one compartment corrects only its own feature. Mechanism: Each wall layer has a different dominant progerin-sensitive effector program — mechanically loaded media → nuclear damage and cell death; adventitial/fibroblastic compartment → matrix synthesis; endothelium → innate-immune activation — and these programs are only weakly coupled over short timescales, with layer interaction amplifying severity rather than creating the features. Prediction: A full factorial reconstruction (mutant/corrected × endothelium, media, adventitia) shows that each phenotypic axis maps to one compartment with little cross-transfer, and a single-compartment-mutant vessel scores high on one axis only, whereas the triple-mutant vessel is the sole condition reproducing all three simultaneously.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Excess collagen deposition and matrix stiffening in progeria are not produced by the mutant cells that occupy the fibrotic compartment but are a non-cell-autonomous response: wild-type fibroblasts (or adventitial/perivascular cells) become profibrotic when exposed to progerin-expressing smooth muscle cells or their secretome. Mechanism: Progerin-bearing smooth muscle cells release TGF-β-family ligands, CTGF, matricellular proteins and damage-associated signals that activate adjacent genetically normal fibroblasts into a collagen-I/III-secreting, lysyl-oxidase-high state; the fibrotic program is therefore transmitted by paracrine signalling rather than by the mutation inside the fibroblast. Prediction: Hybrid engineered vessels with mutant medial cells and isogenic wild-type adventitial fibroblasts still show collagen accumulation and stiffening, while vessels with mutant fibroblasts and wild-type media do not; conditioned medium or co-culture from mutant smooth muscle cells induces the same fibrotic signature in wild-type fibroblasts, and TGF-β pathway blockade abolishes it.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Smooth muscle cells are the primary driver of progeroid vascular degeneration, and progerin expression restricted to the smooth muscle layer is sufficient to reproduce medial cell loss, wall thinning and adverse remodelling even when endothelium, fibroblasts and immune cells carry no mutation. Conversely, sparing smooth muscle cells from progerin largely protects the vessel from this degenerative component. Mechanism: Progerin accumulates in the stiff, mechanically loaded medial smooth muscle compartment, where repeated contractile cycling and nuclear strain amplify lamina damage, DNA-damage signalling and mechanosensitive apoptosis; the resulting cell-autonomous attrition cannot be compensated because medial smooth muscle cells have very low replicative reserve. Prediction: In cell-type-restricted progerin models (or three-layer engineered vessels assembled from mutant versus isogenic corrected cells), smooth-muscle-only progerin yields the full medial depletion/wall-thinning phenotype, whereas endothelium-only or fibroblast-only progerin yields near-normal medial cellularity; mechanical unloading or reduced contractile cycling attenuates loss in the smooth-muscle-mutant condition.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "A subset of progeroid vascular abnormalities is mutation-independent and reflects reciprocal cross-talk rather than direct progerin action: genetically wild-type cells placed in a mutant multilayer vessel acquire disease-like transcriptional states, and the resulting features persist after progerin is silenced in the originating compartment. Mechanism: Progerin-driven matrix stiffening and altered matrix composition create a self-sustaining mechanical and biochemical niche; stiffness-driven YAP/TAZ and integrin signalling in wild-type cells maintains the fibrotic and inflammatory programs through a feed-forward loop that no longer requires ongoing progerin expression. Prediction: After progerin knockdown (e.g. inducible silencing or antisense/lonafarnib-class intervention) in a mature three-layer mutant vessel, stiffness and collagen cross-linking remain elevated and wild-type reporter cells retain activated states, whereas the same intervention applied before matrix maturation prevents them; enzymatic cross-link disruption, not progerin removal, reverses the late phenotype.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "The inflammatory feature of progeroid vasculopathy originates in the endothelium: progerin expression confined to endothelial cells is necessary and largely sufficient for the vessel's inflammatory and leukocyte-adhesive phenotype, independent of medial degeneration or fibrosis. Mechanism: Progerin in endothelial cells disrupts nuclear-lamina-coupled NF-κB and cGAS–STING signalling (via cytosolic DNA from lamina rupture and persistent DNA damage), driving constitutive expression of VCAM-1/ICAM-1/E-selectin, IL-6 and chemokines, plus loss of eNOS-dependent anti-inflammatory tone and barrier integrity. Prediction: Endothelium-restricted progerin produces high adhesion-molecule expression and monocyte capture under flow with intact medial cellularity and normal collagen content, while smooth-muscle- or fibroblast-restricted progerin leaves endothelial activation markers near baseline; inhibition of STING or NF-κB in endothelium normalises leukocyte adhesion without rescuing medial loss.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42844664", "pmid": "42844664", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70728", "title": "Time-Restricted Feeding Delays Cardiovascular Aging by Increasing Acetic Acid Through Remodeling Gut Microbiota.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal mechanism linking a dietary timing intervention to reduced cardiovascular ageing and cellular senescence.", "background": "Cardiovascular ageing is characterized by hypertension, arterial stiffening, endothelial dysfunction, and maladaptive cardiac remodeling. Chronic inflammation, impaired tissue barriers, and regulated inflammatory cell death can accelerate these changes. Dietary patterns can influence age-related cardiovascular health, but causal chains connecting specific eating schedules to vascular protection remain incompletely understood. Identifying the necessary and sufficient mediators of such protection is important for developing non-pharmacological strategies against cardiovascular decline.", "question": "Through what causal mechanism does time-restricted feeding protect against accelerated cardiovascular ageing?", "subject": "Cardiovascular ageing protection", "finding": "Time-restricted feeding enriches acetate-producing Limosilactobacillus, and microbiota-derived acetate is necessary and sufficient for its protection against angiotensin II-induced cardiovascular ageing. Acetate activates GPR43, inhibits HDAC3, increases H4K8 acetylation, and suppresses NLRP3-mediated pyroptosis and cellular senescence.", "key_points": [ "TRF remodels the gut microbiota and enriches Limosilactobacillus", "Microbiota depletion abolishes TRF-mediated cardiovascular protection", "Acetate supplementation restores the protective phenotype", "Acetate signals through GPR43 and inhibits HDAC3", "Increased H4K8ac suppresses NLRP3 pyroptosis and senescence" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Time-restricted feeding protects the cardiovascular system primarily by restoring the amplitude of the cardiomyocyte and vascular smooth muscle circadian clock, and this clock realignment is necessary for the protection. Feeding confined to the active phase re-entrains BMAL1/CLOCK-driven transcription in heart and aorta, which is otherwise flattened by ad libitum grazing in aged or hypertensive animals. Mechanism: Nutrient/insulin oscillation during a restricted window re-phases peripheral clocks; rhythmic BMAL1 output restores diurnal control of eNOS, Kruppel-like factor 15, mitochondrial substrate switching, and nocturnal blood-pressure dipping, lowering cumulative pulsatile load on the arterial wall and limiting fibrotic remodeling. Prediction: In mice with cardiomyocyte- or smooth-muscle-specific Bmal1 deletion, time-restricted feeding fails to reduce arterial stiffness, restore blood-pressure dipping, or prevent cardiac fibrosis, while identical caloric intake with intact Bmal1 is fully protective; protection tracks clock-gene amplitude rather than body weight or total calories.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "The protective signal is the depth of the fasting-induced nutrient-sensing switch in the vessel wall: TRF protects by lowering mTORC1 and raising AMPK/SIRT1-dependent autophagic flux in endothelium and vascular smooth muscle, clearing damaged mitochondria and misfolded/ubiquitinated protein aggregates that otherwise drive senescence. Mechanism: Daily depletion of circulating amino acids and insulin de-represses ULK1/TFEB, increasing mitophagy and proteostasis capacity; this prevents cGAS-STING activation by leaked mitochondrial DNA, lowers p16/p21 senescent cell burden and SASP output in the medial and adventitial layers, preserving elastin integrity and reducing collagen deposition and cardiac hypertrophy. Prediction: Endothelial/VSMC-specific Atg7 or Tfeb knockout, or chronic low-dose leucine/insulin clamping that keeps mTORC1 active only during the fasting window, abolishes TRF's benefit on stiffness and senescent-cell burden; TRF's benefit is not additive with rapamycin, and vascular p16+ cell counts fall in proportion to fast duration independent of calories.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Time-restricted feeding protects the cardiovascular system through the gut: the extended fast restores intestinal epithelial barrier function, cutting translocation of microbial products that drive vascular inflammation. Barrier restoration is sufficient — mimicking it without any change in feeding schedule reproduces the protection. Mechanism: Fasting intervals permit epithelial autophagy and goblet/Paneth cell renewal, raise microbiota-derived butyrate and secondary bile acids, tighten claudin/occludin junctions and thicken mucus; reduced portal and systemic LPS/flagellin lowers TLR4-MyD88 signaling in endothelium and perivascular macrophages, limiting NADPH-oxidase superoxide, eNOS uncoupling, MMP-driven elastin fragmentation and collagen cross-linking. Prediction: TRF lowers serum LPS-binding protein and FITC-dextran permeability before vascular function improves; germ-free or antibiotic-depleted animals, or Tlr4−/− mice, gain no vascular benefit from TRF, and faecal microbiota transfer from TRF to ad libitum animals transfers the improvement in pulse-wave velocity and endothelial relaxation.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 1, "text": "Time-restricted feeding protects arteries by suppressing NLRP3-inflammasome-driven gasdermin-D pore formation and pyroptosis in endothelial and perivascular myeloid cells; inflammasome activation is the necessary mediator of the accelerated vascular ageing that TRF prevents. Mechanism: The prolonged daily fast lowers postprandial glycemic excursions, lipotoxic DAMPs and mtROS, raises β-hydroxybutyrate (a direct NLRP3 inhibitor) and induces mitophagy, so ASC-speck assembly, caspase-1 activation and IL-1β/IL-18 release fall; less gasdermin-D pore formation preserves endothelial junction integrity, NO bioavailability and prevents the IL-1β→smooth-muscle osteogenic/fibrotic program that stiffens the wall. Prediction: TRF's protection of endothelium-dependent relaxation, pulse-wave velocity and cardiac remodeling is abolished (no further benefit) in Nlrp3−/−, Casp1−/− or Gsdmd−/− animals — i.e. TRF and inflammasome deletion are epistatic, not additive — and conversely constitutively active NLRP3 (Nlrp3^D301N) blocks TRF benefit despite unchanged feeding rhythm; vascular ASC specks and plasma IL-18 fall before any change in blood pressure.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "Time-restricted feeding protects the heart and arteries largely by reshaping haematopoiesis: the fasting window suppresses sympathetic/CXCL12-dependent mobilization of bone-marrow myeloid progenitors, lowering the supply of inflammatory monocytes that infiltrate the perivascular space and myocardium. Mechanism: Rhythmic feeding restores diurnal leukocyte trafficking and raises corticosterone/CXCR4 retention signals during the fast, cutting Ly6C-high monocyte egress and clonal myeloid expansion; fewer recruited macrophages mean less TNF/IL-1β and less MMP/TGF-β activity in the adventitia and myocardial interstitium, preserving capillary density and limiting perivascular fibrosis. Prediction: TRF reduces circulating Ly6C-high monocytes and vascular CD68+ infiltration within days, before changes in blood pressure or stiffness; the benefit is lost in mice receiving continuous CCL2/M-CSF or carrying Cxcr4 deletion in myeloid cells, and bone-marrow transplantation from TRF donors into ad libitum recipients partially transfers the protection.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42853938", "pmid": "42853938", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aea2001", "title": "Targeting SUV39H2 exon skipping reverses resistance to CDK4/6 inhibitors via transcriptional activation of p21.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-09", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal mechanism linking alternative splicing and chromatin regulation to therapy-induced cellular senescence and drug resistance.", "background": "Therapy-induced cellular senescence can durably arrest the proliferation of cancer cells and contribute to treatment efficacy. Cancer cells can acquire resistance to treatments that normally induce this state, allowing continued growth and disease progression. Alternative splicing and epigenetic regulation are both frequently altered during cancer evolution, but their causal roles in suppressing treatment-induced senescence remain incompletely understood. Identifying the molecular mechanism responsible could reveal a way to restore therapeutic sensitivity.", "question": "What splicing-dependent mechanism enables resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition, and can disrupting it restore therapy-induced senescence?", "subject": "Senescence-associated drug resistance", "finding": "Increased inclusion of exon 2 drives SUV39H2 overexpression and CDK4/6 inhibitor resistance. Suppressing SUV39H2 expression or methyltransferase activity removes H3K9me3 from enhancer regions, opens associated promoters, activates p21 and other senescence-associated genes, and restores therapy-induced senescence.", "key_points": [ "SUV39H2 exon 2 inclusion increases SUV39H2 expression", "SUV39H2 promotes resistance to CDK4/6 inhibitors", "SUV39H2 targeting reduces enhancer-associated H3K9me3 and opens promoters", "p21 and other senescence-associated genes are transcriptionally activated", "Therapy-induced senescence and drug sensitivity are restored" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "Prolonged CDK4/6 inhibition selects cells with an altered splicing program that produces a dominant-negative isoform of a senescence-executing kinase or transcription factor, creating a feedback loop in which the drug itself drives the splicing change. Interrupting the loop pharmacologically restores senescence and prevents resistance emergence. Mechanism: Drug-induced signaling rewiring (e.g. loss of RB-dependent repression of a splicing regulator) increases the splicing regulator, which produces the dominant-negative isoform, which in turn blocks the senescence effector and sustains proliferation — a self-reinforcing circuit established during treatment rather than pre-existing. Prediction: Time-course RNA-seq during continuous treatment shows the splicing shift emerging before overt proliferative escape and reverting on drug withdrawal; co-treatment from day 0 with the splicing-regulator inhibitor prevents resistance outgrowth in long-term culture and in vivo, whereas adding it after resistance is established only partially resensitizes — supporting an induced feedback loop over clonal selection of a pre-existing variant.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Resistance arises from an exon-skipped RB1 (or RB-pathway effector) isoform that remains CDK-phosphorylation-independent in its ability to release E2F, uncoupling the drug target from downstream arrest. Restoring canonical splicing, or degrading the aberrant isoform, re-establishes senescence. Mechanism: Alternative splicing removes the exon encoding a key pocket-domain or phosphosite-containing segment of RB1, yielding a protein unable to assemble repressive RB–E2F–chromatin complexes. CDK4/6 inhibition no longer suppresses E2F targets, so cells maintain proliferation without acquiring RB1 mutation or loss. Prediction: Resistant lines show a specific RB1 exon-skipping event with intact genomic locus and normal total RB1 protein level; ASO-mediated exon re-inclusion resensitizes cells, whereas full RB1 knockout abolishes resensitization — distinguishing an isoform-switch mechanism from genetic RB1 loss.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Resistance to CDK4/6 inhibition is enabled by an aberrant splice isoform of a chromatin-modifying enzyme that loses its regulatory domain while retaining catalytic activity, and this isoform silences the senescence transcriptional program. Forcing expression of the full-length isoform, or blocking production of the truncated one, restores palbociclib-induced senescence. Mechanism: A splicing factor whose expression rises under prolonged CDK4/6 inhibition promotes use of an alternative exon/termination site in a histone methyltransferase or demethylase transcript. The resulting protein is mistargeted to CDKN1A/CDKN2A and SASP loci, where it deposits repressive marks that prevent the stable heterochromatin-plus-p21 state needed for arrest. Cells therefore resume cycling despite sustained RB-pathway inhibition. Prediction: Isoform-specific knockdown of the truncated transcript (antisense oligonucleotide or splice-switching ASO) with no change in total gene mRNA restores SA-β-gal positivity, p21 induction and durable arrest in resistant cells, while catalytically dead rescue of the truncated isoform does not; ChIP-seq shows loss of the repressive mark specifically at senescence loci.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 3, "text": "Resistance is mediated by an intron-retained or alternatively spliced transcript that functions as a nuclear noncoding regulator, scaffolding an epigenetic silencing complex onto the CDKN2A/B locus. Degrading this transcript restores locus expression and therapy-induced senescence. Mechanism: The resistance mechanism is RNA-level rather than protein-level: the retained-intron species accumulates in the nucleus, binds the silencing complex and tethers it at the INK4/ARF locus. This keeps p16 expression low, which permits CDK4/6-independent cycling via CDK2/cyclin E and prevents the heterochromatic senescence program. Prediction: RNase-H ASOs that degrade the retained-intron transcript (but not steric-blocking oligos targeting the protein-coding isoform) restore p16 expression, senescence markers and palbociclib sensitivity; RNA-immunoprecipitation shows direct binding of the transcript to the silencing complex, and CRISPR deletion of the intron-retention element phenocopies the ASO.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "A splicing factor amplified or upregulated in resistant cells acts upstream of both splicing and chromatin by generating an isoform of a DNA/RNA-binding repressor that recruits a histone deacetylase or PRC complex to the SASP enhancer landscape; this converts potential senescence into a reversible quiescent state. Inhibiting the splicing factor restores full senescence. Mechanism: Senescence requires SASP enhancer activation and chromatin remodeling, not just cell-cycle exit. The resistance isoform occupies these enhancers and blocks BRD4/NF-κB loading, so cells arrest only transiently and re-enter cycle after drug withdrawal. Prediction: Pharmacologic splicing-factor inhibition (e.g. SF3B or CLK inhibitors) or targeted knockdown converts drug-induced quiescence into stable senescence, measured by failure to form colonies after drug washout plus restored SASP secretion; the effect is rescued by re-expressing the specific downstream isoform, proving it is the operative effector rather than general spliceosome stress.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42858183", "pmid": "42858183", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70755", "title": "Ginsenoside Rg3 Promotes Healthy Aging Through Phosphoinositide-Associated Lysosomal Regulation in Caenorhabditis elegans.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports experimentally supported causal and mechanistic effects of a defined compound on lifespan, healthspan, age-related proteostasis decline, and neurodegeneration.", "background": "Aging is accompanied by declining lysosomal activity, impaired autophagic clearance, and loss of protein homeostasis. These changes contribute to progressive functional deterioration and increase vulnerability to protein-aggregation disorders. Restoring cellular clearance systems can sometimes improve lifespan or healthspan in model organisms. However, interventions that preserve lysosomal competence during aging and the mechanisms through which they act remain incompletely understood.", "question": "Can a defined intervention preserve lysosomal function and protein homeostasis during aging, thereby extending lifespan and maintaining organismal function, and through what mechanism?", "subject": "Lysosomal maintenance during aging", "finding": "20(S)-ginsenoside Rg3 extended lifespan and preserved physiological and neuronal function in Caenorhabditis elegans by restoring lysosomal activity and autophagic flux. Rg3 remodeled neuronal lysosomal phosphoinositide signatures toward increased PI(4)P and reduced PI(3)P, suppressed RSKS-1/S6K–TORC1 signaling, and promoted nuclear HLH-30/TFEB activity, thereby improving proteostasis and resistance to polyglutamine- and α-synuclein-associated toxicity.", "key_points": [ "Rg3 extends lifespan and preserves healthspan", "Lysosomal function and autophagic flux are restored during aging", "Neuronal phosphoinositides shift toward higher PI(4)P and lower PI(3)P", "TORC1–RSKS-1/S6K signaling is suppressed and HLH-30/TFEB enters the nucleus", "Protein aggregation and neurodegeneration are reduced" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Age-related decline in lysosomal acidification is the proximal cause of failing autophagic clearance, and sustaining the v-ATPase proton pump during adulthood is sufficient to preserve proteostasis and extend lifespan. Adult-onset, modest overexpression of a limiting v-ATPase subunit (e.g. Vha44/ATP6V1 family) in neurons and muscle restores lysosomal pH, cargo degradation, and organismal function. Mechanism: Aging lowers v-ATPase assembly/stoichiometry, raising lysosomal pH above the optimum for cathepsins; restoring pump capacity reactivates acid hydrolases, allowing autolysosome resolution, clearance of ubiquitinated aggregates and damaged mitochondria, and relieving the feedback block on autophagosome–lysosome fusion. Prediction: In v-ATPase-boosted animals, lysosomal pH measured in vivo (LysoSensor/pHluorin ratiometric probes) stays at young values at old age, cathepsin activity and autophagic flux (bafilomycin-clamped LC3-II/Atg8 or GFP-LGG-1 turnover) are preserved, aggregate burden falls, and median lifespan rises; the lifespan gain is abolished by co-expression of a proton-dead v-ATPase mutant or by pharmacological pH clamping, and is absent in autophagy-null (atg7/atg5) backgrounds — distinguishing acidification from generic lysosomal biogenesis.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Pulsed rather than continuous activation of the master lysosomal transcription factor TFEB/HLH-30 preserves lysosomal competence across aging, because continuous activation exhausts the biogenesis–degradation cycle. Intermittent (e.g. 12 h on / 36 h off) adult-onset TFEB induction extends lifespan and maintains motor function more than constitutive induction at matched total dose. Mechanism: TFEB drives the CLEAR gene network; cyclical nuclear entry permits a biogenesis phase followed by a degradative/mTORC1-reactivation phase in which newly made lysosomes are loaded, acidified and reformed (autophagic lysosome reformation). Continuous nuclear TFEB uncouples biogenesis from reformation, producing immature, poorly acidified lysosomes and ER/secretory stress. Prediction: At equal cumulative TFEB induction, pulsed animals show higher cathepsin activity per lysosome, normal lysosome size distribution and preserved ALR (spinning-disk tubulation events), and a larger lifespan extension, whereas constitutive animals accumulate enlarged pale lysosomes and show no or reduced extension; swapping the pulse period to match the ALR timescale should maximize the effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Loss of lysosomal membrane lipid composition — specifically depletion of bis(monoacylglycero)phosphate (BMP/LBPA) and phosphatidylinositol-3,5-bisphosphate — rather than loss of hydrolases, drives age-related lysosomal failure; restoring PI(3,5)P2 by adult-onset activation of PIKfyve or supplementation of BMP precursors preserves fusion competence, calcium signaling and lifespan. Mechanism: PI(3,5)P2 recruits fusion and ion-channel machinery (TRPML1/CUP-5, HOPS effectors) and supports lysosomal Ca2+ release that feeds back on TFEB via calcineurin; age-related decline fragments this loop, blocking autophagosome–lysosome fusion and lysosome reformation. Restoring the lipid re-establishes TRPML1-dependent Ca2+ efflux, calcineurin–TFEB signaling and fusion. Prediction: PIKfyve-activated old animals show restored lysosomal Ca2+ transients (GCaMP-tagged lysosomal probes), normalized autophagosome–lysosome fusion rates and lifespan extension; the benefit is lost in trpml1/cup-5 mutants or with calcineurin inhibition, whereas hydrolase overexpression alone does not rescue fusion — separating a lipid/ion-signaling mechanism from an enzyme-abundance mechanism.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Lysosomal competence in aging is limited by cell-nonautonomous signaling: enhancing lysosomal function in a small set of secretory cells (intestine/liver, or neurons) is sufficient to preserve proteostasis in distal tissues through a secreted lysokine, and this inter-tissue signal, not local degradation, mediates the lifespan extension. Mechanism: Tissue-restricted lysosomal activation (TFEB/HLH-30 or v-ATPase boost) triggers release of a lysosome-derived signal — a lysosomal lipid messenger such as oleoylethanolamide/PC-derived species or an exosomal cargo — that activates HSF1/heat-shock and autophagy programs in recipient tissues, raising chaperone capacity and clearance organism-wide. Prediction: Intestine-only lysosomal activation preserves muscle and neuronal aggregate clearance and extends lifespan; conditioned medium or hemolymph/plasma transfer from treated donors reproduces the proteostasis gain in naive recipients, and the effect is lost when the candidate secreted mediator's synthesis (e.g. LIPL-4/lysosomal lipase or the NHR-49/HSF-1 relay) is knocked down in donors or the receptor pathway is knocked down in recipients — an outcome incompatible with purely cell-autonomous clearance models.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Age-dependent accumulation of lipofuscin and oxidized lipid–protein adducts inside lysosomes is the causal lesion, and intralysosomal delivery of a hydrolase capable of degrading these adducts (e.g. targeted cyclodextrin/sulfated cyclodextrin plus a bacterial-derived esterase, or lysosomal expression of a cholesterol-oxide hydrolase) restores degradative capacity and extends healthspan. Mechanism: Indigestible adducts act as competitive sinks and inhibitors of cathepsins and promote lysosomal membrane permeabilization; removing the undegradable load restores free hydrolase activity, membrane integrity and the capacity to receive new autophagic cargo, thereby lowering cytosolic aggregate load. Prediction: Animals or cells receiving the targeted hydrolase show reduced autofluorescent lipofuscin at old age with concomitant recovery of cathepsin B/L activity and reduced galectin-3/LGALS puncta (membrane damage), plus extended healthspan; a catalytically dead enzyme targeted to the same compartment gives neither clearance nor lifespan benefit, excluding nonspecific lysosomotropic effects.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42806945", "pmid": "42806945", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70732", "title": "Ghrelin Alleviates Aging-Related Cognitive Impairment by Regulating Autophagy-Related Signaling via the SHBG/JNK1/Beclin1 Axis in Microglia.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-29", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally identifies and tests a causal molecular mechanism linking metabolic signaling to cellular senescence and cognitive decline during ageing.", "background": "Ageing is frequently accompanied by cognitive decline and chronic neuroinflammation. Cellular senescence and age-dependent changes in metabolic signaling can disrupt tissue homeostasis and contribute to functional deterioration in the brain. Although several circulating metabolic factors correlate with cognitive impairment, association alone does not establish which factors directly modify the ageing process. The molecular chain connecting a metabolic regulator to cellular dysfunction and cognitive outcomes therefore remained unresolved.", "question": "Which metabolic regulator causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment, and through what molecular mechanism does it suppress cellular senescence and inflammation?", "subject": "Age-related cognitive impairment", "finding": "Ghrelin alleviates ageing-related cognitive impairment by promoting autophagy-related activity and reducing senescence and inflammation in microglia through the SHBG/JNK1/Beclin1 axis. SHBG overexpression and JNK1 inhibition attenuate these effects, while Beclin1 overexpression partially restores them, supporting the proposed causal pathway; excessive ghrelin can also cause GHSR desensitization.", "key_points": [ "Ghrelin improves ageing-related cognitive impairment", "Microglial senescence and inflammation are reduced", "Autophagy-related signaling is enhanced", "The effect is mediated through the SHBG/JNK1/Beclin1 axis", "Beclin1 rescue supports the causal pathway" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a causal protective metabolic regulator of brain ageing: loss of FGF21 signaling in the hippocampus accelerates, and restoration of FGF21 mitigates, ageing-related cognitive impairment. FGF21 acts on neurons and microglia through the β-Klotho/FGFR1 receptor complex to activate AMPK–SIRT1 signaling, which suppresses the senescence programme and NF-κB-driven inflammatory output. Mechanism: FGF21 binds β-Klotho/FGFR1 on hippocampal cells → ERK and LKB1/AMPK activation → raised NAD+/SIRT1 activity → deacetylation of p65 and PGC-1α-dependent mitochondrial renewal → reduced mitochondrial ROS and cytosolic mtDNA leakage → lower cGAS–STING tone → loss of p16INK4a/p21-positive senescent cells and of the SASP (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF) that impairs synaptic plasticity. Prediction: In aged mice, peripheral FGF21 (or an FGF21 analogue) restores hippocampal LTP and Morris water maze/novel-object performance and lowers p16INK4a+ cell density; the benefit is abolished in neuron/microglia-specific β-Klotho knockouts and in hippocampal Sirt1 knockdown, while FGF21-knockout mice show premature cognitive decline — distinguishing a receptor-dependent causal pathway from a mere correlate of metabolic health.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Age-related decline of the NAD+ biosynthetic regulator NAMPT (and consequently of eNAMPT in circulation) is a causal driver of cognitive ageing. Restoring NAMPT-dependent NAD+ flux suppresses senescence and neuroinflammation chiefly by reactivating SIRT3/SIRT6 and by preventing cGAS–STING activation in microglia. Mechanism: Low NAD+ → impaired SIRT6-dependent chromatin maintenance and SIRT3-dependent mitochondrial deacetylation → DNA-damage persistence and mitochondrial dysfunction → senescence with p16/p21 and cytoplasmic chromatin fragments → cGAS–STING → type-I interferon and NF-κB SASP in microglia → synaptic pruning and impaired neurogenesis. Prediction: Hippocampal NAD+ repletion (NMN, or AAV-NAMPT in astrocytes, or eNAMPT-containing extracellular vesicles from young mice) rescues memory in aged mice and reduces interferon-stimulated gene signatures; the rescue is lost in Sirt6 or Sting conditional knockouts, whereas NAD+-independent antioxidants give no equivalent benefit.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 4, "text": "Age-associated loss of adipocyte-derived adiponectin signaling through AdipoR1 on hippocampal neurons and microglia causally permits senescence and neuroinflammation. Adiponectin restores cognition via AdipoR1–ceramidase activity that lowers ceramide, relieving ceramide-driven p53/p21 senescence and ceramide-dependent NF-κB/TLR4 inflammatory priming. Mechanism: Adiponectin → AdipoR1 intrinsic ceramidase and APPL1–LKB1–AMPK activation → fall in C16:0/C18:0 ceramide and in ceramide-mediated PP2A activation → restored AKT/insulin sensitivity and mitochondrial integrity → reduced p53 stabilisation and p21 induction → lower NF-κB/TLR4 SASP and restored microglial homeostatic signature. Prediction: In aged or adiponectin-knockout mice, AdipoR agonist AdipoRon or adiponectin restores memory and reduces hippocampal ceramide and p21; the benefit is abolished by neuronal AdipoR1 deletion or by exogenous C16-ceramide delivery, and acid-ceramidase overexpression reproduces it without adiponectin, pinpointing ceramide as the mediating node rather than general insulin sensitisation.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 3, "text": "The exercise- and fasting-induced hepatokine/metabolite pathway converging on GPR109A-sensed β-hydroxybutyrate is a causal mitigator of cognitive ageing. β-HB acts not only as fuel but as a signaling regulator that inhibits HDAC class I and the NLRP3 inflammasome, thereby suppressing senescence-associated secretion in microglia and restoring BDNF-dependent plasticity. Mechanism: Elevated β-HB → class-I HDAC inhibition at the Bdnf and Foxo3/Mt2 promoters plus direct blockade of NLRP3 assembly and of K+ efflux-dependent ASC oligomerisation → lowered IL-1β/IL-18 → reduced paracrine senescence spread → preserved adult hippocampal neurogenesis and LTP. Prediction: Raising β-HB in aged mice by ketone ester feeding (at isocaloric intake, excluding weight loss as the explanation) improves memory and reduces p16INK4a+ microglia; the effect is retained in Hcar2/GPR109A knockouts but lost with an HDAC-insensitive Bdnf promoter mutant or in Nlrp3−/− mice where no further gain appears, dissociating epigenetic-signaling from caloric mechanisms.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 2, "text": "Klotho (α-Klotho), acting as a circulating metabolic regulator of insulin/IGF-1 and Wnt signaling, causally mitigates ageing-related cognitive impairment. Its mechanism is attenuation of PI3K–AKT–mTORC1 and canonical Wnt tone in the hippocampus, which lowers p53/p21-dependent senescence and the NLRP3 inflammasome output of microglia. Mechanism: α-Klotho dampens IGF-1R/PI3K–AKT–mTORC1 and sequesters Wnt ligands → restored FoxO3a-driven antioxidant transcription and autophagy flux → clearance of damaged mitochondria and protein aggregates → fewer p21+/p53-high senescent astrocytes and microglia → reduced NLRP3/caspase-1/IL-1β maturation → preserved NMDA-receptor subunit composition and synaptic plasticity. Prediction: A single peripheral dose of the α-Klotho fragment improves spatial and working memory in aged mice with concurrent fall in hippocampal p21 and cleaved IL-1β; blocking the benefit requires either hippocampal mTORC1 reactivation (constitutively active Rheb) or Nlrp3 deletion made epistatic, while Klotho-hypomorphic (kl/kl) mice show early senescence-linked cognitive loss rescued by senolytics.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42723144", "pmid": "42723144", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70710", "title": "Mitochondrial Haplotype Shapes the Trajectory of Ovarian Aging in Genetically Heterogeneous Rats.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies a heritable determinant of ovarian ageing and links it to a specific defect in organelle genome maintenance and function.", "background": "Ovarian function declines with age, eventually causing reproductive senescence and broader endocrine changes that affect female healthspan. The pace of this decline varies substantially among individuals, even when chronological age is similar. Both nuclear and non-nuclear inherited factors could contribute to this variation, but their causal roles are difficult to separate because genetic backgrounds commonly differ at many loci. The mechanisms connecting inherited variation to follicle depletion, tissue pathology and loss of ovarian function therefore remain poorly understood.", "question": "Can naturally occurring inherited genetic variation alter the rate of ovarian ageing on equivalent heterogeneous nuclear backgrounds, and what cellular mechanism mediates this effect?", "subject": "Genetic control of ovarian ageing", "finding": "The OKC-HETW mitochondrial haplotype accelerated ovarian ageing, causing faster primordial-follicle loss, inflammatory and fibrotic remodelling, mitochondrial dysfunction and impaired ovulation relative to the OKC-HETB haplotype on equivalently distributed nuclear backgrounds. Despite normal TFAM expression and elevated total TFAM protein, OKC-HETW ovaries had reduced mitochondrial TFAM, TFAM–mtDNA binding and TOMM20, supporting defective mitochondrial protein import and compromised mtDNA maintenance as the mechanism linking haplotype to accelerated decline.", "key_points": [ "Mitochondrial haplotype causally modifies the rate of ovarian ageing", "OKC-HETW accelerates follicle depletion and pathological ovarian remodelling", "The susceptible haplotype reduces respiratory activity, ATP production and mtDNA copy number", "Reduced TOMM20 and mitochondrial TFAM indicate defective TFAM import and mtDNA maintenance", "Molecular and tissue defects correspond to impaired ovarian function" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Heteroplasmy dynamics rather than fixed haplotype identity drive the inherited difference: haplotypes that transmit a higher load of mildly deleterious variants through the germline bottleneck, or that purify them less efficiently, produce oocyte cohorts with variable mutant load, and ovarian ageing rate tracks the fraction of oocytes exceeding a biochemical threshold. Mechanism: The primordial-germ-cell bottleneck plus Bnip3/Prkn-dependent germline mitophagy selects against severely deleterious mtDNA variants. Haplotype-specific differences in mtDNA copy number set-point, replication fidelity (POLG interaction) and mitophagy efficiency change the stringency of this purifying selection. Oocytes that cross the heteroplasmy threshold fail to sustain the ATP and NAD+ flux needed for spindle assembly and meiotic competence, are eliminated by atresia, and accelerate reserve exhaustion stochastically — producing high between-animal variance within a haplotype. Prediction: Single-oocyte deep mtDNA sequencing across nuclear-matched, mtDNA-divergent females reveals haplotype-specific differences in the variance (not just mean) of pathogenic-variant heteroplasmy, and individual follicle reserve at 12 months correlates with the per-animal fraction of oocytes above ~60% mutant load better than with haplotype mean. Enhancing germline mitophagy (PINK1/Parkin or BNIP3 gain of function) narrows heteroplasmy variance and preserves follicle counts selectively in the high-variance haplotype.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 0 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "Inherited non-nuclear variation sets ovarian ageing rate by determining how early mitonuclear protein-complex mismatch triggers the mitochondrial unfolded protein response and the integrated stress response in the ovary. Haplotypes with greater mismatch against the heterogeneous nuclear background cause chronic, maladaptive ATF4/ATF5 signalling that reprograms ovarian stromal cells toward a fibro-inflammatory state. Mechanism: mtDNA-encoded subunits and mt-tRNAs co-evolved with specific nuclear alleles; on an outbred nuclear background a divergent haplotype yields imperfectly stoichiometric OXPHOS assembly and impaired mitochondrial translation. Persistent proteotoxic load activates UPRmt (HSP60/LONP1/ClpP) and the OMA1–DELE1–HRI–ATF4 axis. Sustained ATF4 output in ovarian stroma and macrophages drives TGF-β/collagen deposition and multinucleated-giant-cell/fibrotic pathology, stiffening the cortex and mechanically restricting follicle growth and ovulation. Prediction: Fast-ageing mtDNA haplotypes show, at mid-life and ahead of follicle loss, elevated ovarian ATF4/ATF5/CHOP and HSPD1-LONP1 transcripts, reduced mitochondrial translation (OXPHOS subunit puromycin labelling), and increased picrosirius-red collagen area plus macrophage multinucleated giant cells in the cortex. Genetic or pharmacological ISR attenuation (Hri/Eif2ak1 loss, ISRIB) or anti-fibrotic treatment normalises collagen and partially restores follicle number specifically in the mismatched haplotype, and spatial transcriptomics localises the ATF4 signature to stroma rather than oocytes.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Inherited mtDNA haplotype differences change ovarian ageing rate primarily through haplotype-specific mitochondrial reactive oxygen species emission in granulosa cells, not in the oocyte. Granulosa oxidative stress triggers premature granulosa apoptosis and follicular atresia, so the oocyte is lost secondarily as a bystander of a failing somatic nurse compartment. Mechanism: Haplotype variants that increase reverse electron transport at complex I (or reduce complex II/III electron flux) raise matrix H2O2 in the metabolically highly active granulosa layer. Chronic ROS oxidises granulosa lipids and activates the intrinsic apoptotic pathway plus NF-κB-driven inflammatory output, converting growing follicles to atretic follicles. Oocyte mtDNA copy number and oocyte mitochondrial function remain comparatively preserved until the somatic support fails. Prediction: In mtDNA-divergent, nuclear-matched animals, the fast-ageing haplotype shows elevated granulosa-cell mitoSOX/H2O2 (MitoB ratio), higher cleaved-caspase-3+ granulosa fraction and higher atretic:healthy antral follicle ratio *before* any detectable deficit in oocyte ATP, spindle integrity or oocyte mtDNA copy number. Granulosa-targeted mitochondrial catalase (mCAT) expression or mitoTEMPO rescues follicle counts and extends cyclicity in the fast haplotype but has little effect in the slow one; oocyte-targeted rescue does not.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 0, "text": "Naturally occurring mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype variation is sufficient to shift the rate of ovarian ageing when nuclear background is held equivalent (e.g. conplastic strains or reciprocal F1/outbred crosses sharing a heterogeneous nuclear genome but differing in maternally inherited mtDNA). The effect is mediated by haplotype-specific OXPHOS coupling efficiency in the oocyte–granulosa unit, which sets the rate at which the non-renewable primordial follicle pool is activated and lost. Mechanism: Non-synonymous and tRNA/rRNA variants distinguishing wild-derived mtDNA haplotypes alter complex I/III assembly and proton-leak-adjusted coupling efficiency. Lower coupling raises the ATP/ADP-sensing load on primordial oocytes, de-repressing the PI3K–AKT–FOXO3a/mTORC1 switch that holds follicles dormant, so a larger fraction of the reserve is recruited per cycle and atresia-driven depletion accelerates. The nuclear genome is permissive but not causal because it is identical in distribution across the compared groups. Prediction: At matched chronological age (e.g. 9–12 months), mtDNA-divergent animals on the same heterogeneous nuclear background differ ≥2-fold in primordial follicle counts and in age at cycle irregularity, with the direction predicted by oocyte respirometry (coupling efficiency measured in isolated cumulus–oocyte complexes) and by nuclear-pFOXO3a exit in primordial oocytes — while nuclear SNP association in the same cohort explains no additional variance. Cytoplasmic transfer or mitochondrial replacement reverses the phenotype; a nuclear-background-matched but mtDNA-identical control shows no difference.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "The inherited non-nuclear effect on ovarian ageing is mediated by haplotype-specific mitochondrial metabolite output — chiefly acetyl-CoA, α-ketoglutarate/succinate and the NAD+/NADH ratio — which rewrites the epigenome of granulosa and oocyte chromatin and thereby the transcriptional programme governing follicle dormancy and quality. Mechanism: Differences in TCA flux and respiratory chain redox poise between haplotypes alter the substrate and inhibitor pools of chromatin-modifying enzymes: acetyl-CoA for histone acetyltransferases, α-KG versus succinate/fumarate for TET and Jumonji demethylases, NAD+ for SIRT1/SIRT3/SIRT6. Shifted ratios change H3K27me3/H3K4me3 and DNA-methylation landscapes at follicle-activation and DNA-repair loci, advancing the epigenetic clock of ovarian cells and impairing oocyte DNA double-strand-break repair, so both follicle number and oocyte quality decline faster. Prediction: Nuclear-matched, mtDNA-divergent ovaries differ in measured α-KG:succinate and NAD+:NADH before histological divergence; the fast haplotype shows accelerated ovarian DNA-methylation-clock age and coherent hypermethylation/H3K27me3 gain at Foxo3a, Amh and HR-repair genes. Restoring the metabolite pool — NAD+ precursor (NMN/NR) or cell-permeable α-KG from early adulthood — normalises the epigenetic signature, follicle counts and oocyte γH2AX burden in the fast haplotype while leaving the slow haplotype near-unchanged, and the metabolite–methylation relationship holds in cultured haplotype-divergent granulosa cells under identical media, excluding systemic confounding.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42808804", "pmid": "42808804", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70712", "title": "IGF-1/SLC25A33 Maintains Blood-Labyrinth Barrier Integrity by Suppressing TGF-β/Smad2-Mediated Pericyte Activation in Age-Related Hearing Loss.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-29", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal molecular mechanism linking cochlear ageing to barrier disruption and age-related hearing loss in mice.", "background": "Age-related hearing loss is a common progressive disorder associated with degeneration of cochlear structure and function. Maintenance of cochlear homeostasis depends on a specialized vascular barrier that controls exchange between the circulation and inner-ear tissues. Ageing can compromise this barrier, disturb the local microenvironment, and contribute to auditory dysfunction. However, the causal molecular events connecting cochlear ageing to barrier failure and hearing decline were not fully understood.", "question": "What causal mechanism links cochlear ageing to loss of blood-labyrinth barrier integrity and auditory dysfunction?", "subject": "Age-related cochlear barrier failure", "finding": "Age-dependent loss of IGF-1 lowers SLC25A33 expression in strial pericytes, causing mitochondrial reactive oxygen species accumulation and activation of TGF-β/Smad2 signaling. This drives pericyte phenotypic switching, disrupts blood-labyrinth barrier integrity, and worsens hearing loss, whereas IGF-1 supplementation or SLC25A33 overexpression suppresses the pathway and partially restores auditory function.", "key_points": [ "IGF-1 and SLC25A33 decline in aged strial pericytes", "SLC25A33 loss causes mitochondrial ROS accumulation", "Mitochondrial ROS activates TGF-β/Smad2 signaling and pericyte switching", "The pathway disrupts the blood-labyrinth barrier and aggravates hearing loss", "IGF-1 or SLC25A33 restoration partially rescues barrier and auditory function" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 4, "text": "Age-driven failure of pericyte/endothelial mitochondrial quality control and NAD+ depletion is the upstream metabolic cause of BLB breakdown: energy failure in barrier cells, not neuronal or hair-cell ageing, initiates permeability and auditory decline. Mechanism: Declining NAD+ and impaired mitophagy (reduced PINK1/Parkin flux, SIRT1/SIRT3 activity) in strial pericytes and endothelium raise mitochondrial ROS and open the mPTP, activating cofilin/ROCK-dependent actin stress-fibre formation and junctional protein internalisation. ATP shortfall also limits Na,K-ATPase/NKCC1-coupled ion transport in adjacent marginal cells, so barrier leak and endocochlear-potential loss arise together from the same metabolic lesion. Prediction: NAD+ and mitophagy markers fall in strial vascular cells before leakage; NAD+ precursor supplementation (NR/NMN), mitochondrial-targeted antioxidant (MitoQ/SS-31) or ROCK inhibition in aged animals restores claudin-5 localisation, reduces tracer extravasation and preserves the endocochlear potential and ABR thresholds, while pericyte/endothelium-specific deletion of PINK1 or NAMPT in young animals reproduces the aged barrier and hearing phenotype.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Loss of a specific endothelial mechano-transcriptional programme — reduced shear-sensitive KLF2/KLF4 signalling secondary to age-related strial capillary rarefaction and slowed cochlear blood flow — causally destabilises the BLB and impairs hearing. Mechanism: Age-related arteriolar stiffening and capillary rarefaction lower and destabilise wall shear stress in strial microvessels. Diminished PIEZO1/KLF2-KLF4 signalling reduces claudin-5, Mfsd2a-constrained transcytosis control and eNOS activity, while increasing NF-kB-driven adhesion molecules. The endothelium shifts to a leaky, inflamed, high-transcytosis phenotype, intrastrial ion homeostasis fails and the endocochlear potential declines, producing metabolic (strial) presbycusis. Prediction: Aged cochleae show reduced strial KLF2/KLF4 and Mfsd2a with increased caveolin-1-dependent vesicular tracer transit (not only paracellular leak); endothelial-specific KLF2 overexpression or PIEZO1 agonism in aged animals restores barrier tightness, endocochlear potential and thresholds, whereas endothelial KLF2 deletion in young animals phenocopies aged BLB leakage.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Age-dependent loss of pericyte coverage in the cochlear stria vascularis is the primary causal event driving blood-labyrinth barrier (BLB) leakage and endocochlear potential decline. Pericyte dropout removes the paracrine signals that maintain endothelial tight junctions, so capillaries become permeable before hair cells die. Mechanism: Senescent/stressed cochlear pericytes detach and are lost, reducing pericyte-derived signalling (e.g. PDGFB–PDGFRB axis, angiopoietin-1/TIE2, TGF-beta) to strial endothelium. Endothelial tight-junction and adherens proteins (claudin-5, occludin, ZO-1, VE-cadherin) are downregulated and redistributed, transcytosis rises, plasma proteins and ions enter the intrastrial fluid space, K+ recycling by marginal cells fails and the endocochlear potential falls, raising auditory thresholds. Prediction: In aged animals, quantitative pericyte coverage of strial capillaries falls before measurable tracer leakage and before outer-hair-cell loss; conditional pericyte ablation in young animals reproduces leakage, endocochlear-potential drop and threshold shifts, while pericyte-targeted rescue (PDGF-BB or TIE2 agonism) restores claudin-5, barrier tightness and hearing in aged animals without changing hair-cell counts.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Ageing converts cochlear perivascular-resident macrophage-like melanocytes (PVM/Ms) from barrier-supporting to barrier-damaging cells, and this functional switch is the causal link between inner-ear inflammaging and BLB breakdown. Mechanism: Age-related accumulation of damage signals (oxidised lipids, mtDNA, HMGB1) polarises PVM/Ms to a pro-inflammatory state. They lose production of pigment-epithelium-derived factor and other tight-junction-supporting factors while secreting IL-1beta/TNF and ROS; this suppresses endothelial claudin-5 and connexin coupling, degrades the strial basement membrane, and recruits circulating monocytes that amplify the lesion, lowering the endocochlear potential. Prediction: Single-cell profiling shows an age-dependent inflammatory PVM/M state appearing before leakage; depleting or reprogramming these cells (CSF1R inhibition restricted to the switch window, or local PEDF restoration) preserves claudin-5, barrier integrity and thresholds in aged animals, while adoptive transfer of aged PVM/Ms into young cochleae causes leakage without hair-cell loss.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Cellular senescence of strial endothelial and perivascular cells, via a p16/p21-driven senescence-associated secretory phenotype, causally degrades the BLB and hearing. Senescent cells act as a paracrine source of barrier-dissolving signals rather than being a passive marker of age. Mechanism: Accumulated oxidative and mitochondrial damage triggers a persistent DNA-damage response and cGAS-STING/NF-kB activation in strial endothelium and perivascular macrophage-like melanocytes. The resulting SASP (IL-1beta, IL-6, TNF, MMP-2/9, VEGF-A) cleaves junctional proteins and basement membrane, increases VEGFR2-dependent permeability, and spreads senescence to neighbouring cells, producing progressive barrier failure and strial atrophy. Prediction: p16-positive cells localise to strial capillaries in aged cochleae and precede tracer leakage; senolytic treatment or genetic clearance of p16-high cells (INK-ATTAC/dasatinib+quercetin), or selective SASP blockade (IL-1 receptor or MMP inhibition), reduces BLB permeability and slows ABR threshold shift in aged animals, whereas transplanting senescent cells into young cochlear perivascular space reproduces leakage and threshold loss.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42585340", "pmid": "42585340", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aeh0657", "title": "Mitochondrial stress activates ELT-2-dependent lysosomal proteostasis to extend lifespan in C. elegans.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-12", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal pathway linking a mild cellular stress response to proteostasis maintenance and lifespan extension in an ageing model organism.", "background": "Ageing is accompanied by a progressive loss of protein homeostasis and an accumulation of damaged or aggregation-prone proteins. Mild perturbations of cellular physiology can trigger adaptive responses that increase stress resistance and extend lifespan in several species. Effective removal of damaged proteins is thought to contribute to these benefits, but the responsible transcriptional programs and degradation machinery are incompletely understood. It also remains unclear which components are causally required to connect such adaptive stress responses to improved proteostasis and longevity.", "question": "Which molecular mechanism enables mild cellular stress to preserve protein homeostasis during ageing and extend organismal lifespan?", "subject": "Stress-induced longevity mechanism", "finding": "In Caenorhabditis elegans, inhibition of mitochondrial respiration activates an intestinal ELT-2-dependent transcriptional program that increases lysosomal proteolysis during ageing, largely independently of the mitochondrial unfolded protein response. Direct promoter binding by ELT-2, requiring residue R249, and the lysosomal proteases CPR-5 and CPR-8 are necessary for toxic polyglutamine aggregate clearance and mitochondrial stress-induced lifespan extension.", "key_points": [ "Mitochondrial respiration inhibition sustains lysosomal protease transcription", "Intestinal ELT-2 directly activates lysosomal protease genes", "ELT-2 residue R249 is required for transcriptional activity", "The pathway is largely independent of UPRmt", "CPR-5 and CPR-8 are required for aggregate clearance and lifespan extension" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Mild stress activates the transcription factors TFEB/HLH-30 and DAF-16/FOXO. They co-induce autophagy–lysosome genes and selective autophagy receptors (SQST-1/p62), and this aggrephagy is required for removing aggregated proteins and for the lifespan extension. Mechanism: Stress-driven inhibition of TOR and activation of AMPK release HLH-30 into the nucleus. HLH-30 then induces genes for autophagosome formation, lysosome biogenesis and the receptor SQST-1, which together target ubiquitinated aggregates for degradation in lysosomes. Prediction: Hormetic stress should increase autophagic flux and the turnover of SQST-1. In hlh-30 or sqst-1 mutants and under bec-1 knockdown, the stress should not reduce aggregates or extend lifespan, and SQST-1 overexpression should partly reproduce the effect.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "Mild ER stress activates the IRE-1–XBP-1s branch of the unfolded protein response. XBP-1s then induces ER-associated degradation (ERAD) and lysosomal genes, and this sustained secretory-pathway degradation capacity is required for proteostasis and longevity. Neuronal XBP-1s can signal this state to distant tissues. Mechanism: IRE-1 splices xbp-1 mRNA. XBP-1s activates the ERAD components (HRD-1, SEL-1) and lysosomal hydrolases, which clears misfolded secretory and membrane proteins that build up with age. Neurons signal to the intestine through neurotransmitters such as tyramine, coordinating this program across the whole organism. Prediction: Preconditioning with low-dose tunicamycin, or neuron-specific XBP-1s, should extend lifespan and lower ER-retained misfolded reporters. Mutations in hrd-1/sel-1 or in the lysosomal genes should eliminate this effect, without affecting the HSF-1 targets.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "Mild mitochondrial stress triggers ATFS-1/ATF5-dependent mitochondrial unfolded protein response (UPRmt) signalling. This signalling drives a cell-wide transcriptional program that increases cytosolic chaperones and ubiquitin–proteasome capacity, and that cross-compartment program, not mitochondrial chaperones alone, explains the longevity effect. Mechanism: Mitochondrial perturbation, such as partial loss of electron transport chain subunits or a mild ROS rise, releases ATFS-1 to the nucleus. With chromatin remodelers (LIN-65, MET-2, DVE-1) it activates mitochondrial chaperones and also cytosolic proteostasis genes (hsp-70, proteasome subunits). This protects the cytosolic proteome from age-related aggregation. Prediction: In atfs-1 or dve-1 mutants, mild ETC knockdown should no longer reduce cytosolic aggregate formation or extend lifespan. A constitutively active ATFS-1 should raise proteasome activity in the cytosol, and blocking the proteasome should cancel its longevity benefit.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Mild stress mildly lowers global translation through eIF2α phosphorylation or TOR inhibition, while selectively translating stress-response transcripts. Fewer new chaperone clients combined with more degradation capacity are both needed to keep proteostasis intact. Mechanism: GCN-2 and PEK-1 phosphorylate eIF2α, lowering the flow of newly synthesised, aggregation-prone polypeptides. ATF-4 is then translated preferentially and induces genes for proteasome, chaperone and amino acid metabolism, which shifts the balance between protein synthesis and degradation for a long time. Prediction: A non-phosphorylatable eIF2α (S51A) or loss of atf-4 should abolish both the stress-induced lifespan extension and the reduction in aggregates. Reducing translation pharmacologically without ATF-4 should give only a partial benefit, and inhibiting the proteasome should cancel the effect of ATF-4.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Mild stress, such as hormetic heat or a low dose of an electrophile, activates HSF-1 together with SKN-1/Nrf2. These factors raise expression of 19S proteasome regulatory subunits, especially RPN-6/PSMD11, and this increased 26S proteasome assembly and activity is causally required for the preserved proteostasis and longer lifespan. Mechanism: Stress-activated transcription factors bind the promoters of proteasome genes (HSEs and ARE-like elements in rpn/pbs genes). This raises 26S proteasome capacity and the clearance of polyubiquitinated, misfolded and aggregation-prone proteins during ageing, which slows the collapse of proteostasis. Prediction: Hormetic stress should increase proteasome activity and RPN-6 levels and lower the load of polyQ or ubiquitinated aggregates. Knocking down rpn-6, or removing the HSF-1/SKN-1 binding sites in its promoter, should abolish both the proteostasis benefit and the lifespan extension, while autophagy knockdown should only partly reduce them. Overexpressing RPN-6 alone should reproduce part of the benefit without any stress.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42669067", "pmid": "42669067", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70689", "title": "SIRT1 Silences L1 Retrotransposons by Stabilizing Heterochromatin-Modifying Complexes.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-30", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper reports an experimentally supported causal mechanism linking retrotransposon repression to delayed cellular senescence.", "background": "Cellular senescence is an irreversible growth-arrest state that contributes to ageing and age-related pathology. Senescent cells undergo changes in genome organization and can activate normally repressed repetitive DNA elements. Such activation may compromise genome stability and provoke inflammatory signaling. The regulatory mechanisms that preserve repeat silencing and thereby limit senescence remained incompletely understood.", "question": "How does SIRT1 regulate L1 retrotransposon activity, and does this regulation affect cellular senescence?", "subject": "SIRT1-mediated L1 silencing", "finding": "SIRT1 suppresses L1 transcription and retrotransposition by promoting the association and recruitment of Lamin B1 and KAP1 at the L1 5′-UTR, increasing repressive H3K9me3 chromatin. SIRT1 deficiency derepresses L1, activates cGAS–STING signaling, and induces cellular senescence; reverse-transcriptase inhibition with 3TC rescues this phenotype.", "key_points": [ "SIRT1 represses L1 transcription and retrotransposition", "SIRT1 stabilizes Lamin B1–KAP1 interactions at the L1 5′-UTR", "The mechanism increases repressive H3K9me3 chromatin", "SIRT1 loss activates L1-dependent cGAS–STING signaling and senescence", "3TC rescues senescence caused by SIRT1 deficiency" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "The SIRT1–L1 axis is NAD+-gated and therefore reversible: the age-related fall in cellular NAD+ lowers SIRT1 activity at L1 loci, and restoring NAD+ re-silences L1 and delays senescence. Mechanism: SIRT1 deacetylation at L1 chromatin requires NAD+ as cosubstrate; declining NAD+ (via CD38/NAMPT changes, or PARP1 consumption after DNA damage) drops SIRT1 catalysis below the threshold needed to keep H4K16ac low at L1 promoters, opening them. Boosting NAD+ re-engages SIRT1 and re-compacts the loci. Prediction: NAD+ precursors (NMN/NR) or NAMPT overexpression reduce L1 RNA, ORF1p and SA-β-gal in replicatively aged or irradiated fibroblasts, with restored SIRT1 occupancy and lower H4K16ac at L1 5'UTRs — and this effect is lost in SIRT1-knockout cells, showing it is SIRT1-dependent rather than a general sirtuin/PARP effect. Conversely, FK866 (NAMPT inhibition) de-represses L1 in a SIRT1-dependent manner.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 2, "text": "The senescence consequence of SIRT1 loss is executed by cytoplasmic L1 cDNA activating cGAS–STING: SIRT1 depletion de-represses L1, L1 reverse transcriptase produces cytosolic DNA, and the resulting type I interferon response both reinforces growth arrest and generates the inflammatory SASP. Mechanism: De-repressed L1 ORF2p reverse-transcribes L1 RNA in the cytoplasm (aided by senescence-associated cytoplasmic chromatin fragments and loss of TREX1); cGAS senses the cDNA, STING–TBK1–IRF3 drives IFN-I and NF-κB, producing IL-6/IL-8 and sustaining p16/p21 arrest. Prediction: SIRT1 knockdown raises cytoplasmic L1 cDNA copies (quantified by cytosolic-fraction qPCR) and an IFN signature; knocking out cGAS or STING, or treating with lamivudine/3TC, abolishes the SASP and interferon response and partially rescues proliferation in SIRT1-depleted cells without lowering L1 RNA — dissociating L1 transcription from the senescence output and excluding a purely transcription-level or insertional-mutagenesis explanation.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "SIRT1 silences L1 indirectly, by deacetylating and thereby activating the sequence-specific repressor machinery (TRIM28/KAP1–SETDB1, and the L1-targeting KRAB-ZFP ZNF93) rather than by acting at L1 DNA itself. SIRT1 decline inactivates this complex, releasing L1 and driving senescence. Mechanism: SIRT1 deacetylates TRIM28 (and/or SETDB1), a modification required for TRIM28 to scaffold SETDB1-mediated H3K9me3 at L1 loci. Hyperacetylated TRIM28 loses SETDB1 binding and HP1 recruitment, so H3K9me3 collapses specifically at KRAB-ZFP-bound young L1 subfamilies, de-repressing them. Prediction: SIRT1 loss increases TRIM28 acetylation and dissociates SETDB1 from TRIM28 by co-IP, with loss of H3K9me3 but no detectable SIRT1 at L1 DNA by ChIP; an acetyl-null TRIM28 mutant (K→R at the SIRT1 target site) restores L1 silencing and blocks senescence in SIRT1-depleted cells, whereas an acetyl-mimetic K→Q mutant phenocopies SIRT1 loss even when SIRT1 is intact.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "L1 de-repression after SIRT1 loss is not merely a consequence of senescence but a feed-forward amplifier: L1 activity consumes and redistributes SIRT1 (by generating DNA damage that recruits SIRT1 away from repeats and depletes NAD+ via PARP), creating a self-reinforcing loop that locks cells into irreversible arrest. Mechanism: L1 ORF2p endonuclease and new insertions create DSBs; the damage response recruits SIRT1 to damage sites and activates PARP1, which depletes NAD+. Both effects strip SIRT1 activity from L1 chromatin, further de-repressing L1 — a positive feedback converting transient SIRT1 or L1 perturbation into stable senescence. Prediction: Transient, pulsed L1 overexpression (or a brief SIRT1 knockdown that is subsequently restored) produces a progressive, self-sustaining rise in endogenous L1 expression and loss of SIRT1 ChIP signal at L1 loci over successive passages, whereas an endonuclease-dead ORF2p (D205A) mutant raises L1 RNA without triggering the loop, SIRT1 relocalization, NAD+ decline, or stable arrest. Interrupting the loop at any node (PARP inhibition, NAD+ repletion, or L1 RT inhibition) should keep the cells reversible after the initial pulse.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "SIRT1 is a direct repressor of L1 retrotransposons: it is recruited to L1 5'UTR promoter regions and deacetylates histone H4K16 (and H3K9/H3K56) there, maintaining a closed chromatin state. Loss or decline of SIRT1 during ageing de-represses L1 transcription, and this de-repression is itself sufficient to accelerate the onset of cellular senescence. Mechanism: SIRT1 occupies the L1 5'UTR, removes H4K16ac, and enables SUV39H1/HP1-dependent H3K9 methylation and heterochromatin compaction over young, full-length L1 loci. Reduced SIRT1 activity (lower NAD+, SIRT1 protein loss, or its known relocalization away from repeats after DNA damage) leaves H4K16ac high, opens the promoter, and allows RNA Pol II to transcribe L1, generating ORF1p/ORF2p and cytoplasmic L1 cDNA. Prediction: SIRT1 ChIP shows enrichment at L1 5'UTRs in proliferating cells that is lost in senescent cells; SIRT1 knockdown raises L1 5'UTR H4K16ac and L1 RNA/ORF1p and triggers premature senescence markers (SA-β-gal, p16, p21), while SIRT1 overexpression or a deacetylase-dependent rescue (not the H363Y catalytic mutant) restores silencing and delays senescence. Critically, blocking L1 downstream of SIRT1 loss — L1 ASOs, ORF2p-targeting shRNA, or reverse-transcriptase inhibitors such as lamivudine — prevents the senescence acceleration without restoring SIRT1 activity, placing L1 causally downstream.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42811065", "pmid": "42811065", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-77654-2", "title": "Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate a peripheral interoceptive pathway to suppress sympathetic Npy for osteogenesis.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-29", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally establishes a causal mechanism linking chronic stress, cellular senescence in the bone marrow niche, impaired osteogenesis, and osteoporosis.", "background": "Chronic stress can disrupt bone remodeling and promote osteoporosis through sustained sympathetic nervous system activity. Cellular senescence within the bone marrow microenvironment can impair regenerative functions and contribute to reduced bone formation. Neural and endocrine signals are therefore plausible links between psychological stress and deterioration of skeletal health. However, the local mediator responsible for stress-induced senescence and the mechanism by which peripheral stimulation could restore osteogenesis were unresolved.", "question": "Which local mechanism connects stress-induced sympathetic activity to cellular senescence and impaired osteogenesis, and can it be modulated non-invasively?", "subject": "Stress-induced bone loss", "finding": "Sympathetic neuropeptide Y drives stress-induced osteoporosis by activating adipocyte Y1R and inducing senescence in bone marrow adipocytes, which impairs osteogenesis. Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate sensory nerves, causing local semaphorin 3A release that suppresses sympathetic neuropeptide Y secretion through a peripheral circuit independent of central pathways.", "key_points": [ "Sympathetic neuropeptide Y is causally required for stress-induced bone loss", "Neuropeptide Y induces senescence in bone marrow adipocytes through Y1R", "Adipocyte senescence impairs osteogenesis", "Pulsed electromagnetic fields activate sensory nerve-dependent semaphorin 3A release", "Semaphorin 3A locally suppresses sympathetic neuropeptide Y secretion" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 0, "text": "Chronic stress-driven sympathetic outflow to bone releases norepinephrine that acts on β2-adrenergic receptors on bone marrow mesenchymal stromal cells (BMSCs), and the resulting cAMP/PKA signalling drives a DNA-damage-independent senescence program in these osteoprogenitors. This local senescence, not systemic glucocorticoid excess, is the proximate cause of reduced bone formation under stress. Mechanism: NE → β2-AR → Gs/cAMP/PKA → CREB-dependent induction of p16INK4a/p21 and mitochondrial ROS → senescence of BMSCs → loss of osteogenic differentiation capacity and acquisition of a SASP that suppresses neighbouring osteoprogenitors. Prediction: In chronically restrained mice, conditional deletion of Adrb2 in Prx1+ or LepR+ BMSCs (or local propranolol) prevents accumulation of p16/SA-β-gal+ marrow stromal cells and preserves trabecular bone, whereas adrenalectomy or glucocorticoid-receptor deletion in the same cells does not; sorted BMSCs from stressed wild-type mice show elevated cAMP targets and senescence markers before any change in serum corticosterone-responsive genes.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "Sympathetic hyperactivity impairs osteogenesis not by killing osteoprogenitors but by senescence-driven lineage reallocation: senescent BMSCs switch to adipogenic and osteoclast-supportive output (RANKL-high, adiponectin/PPARγ-high), so the decisive local mechanism is a senescence-dependent fate switch that is reversible by senolytic or senomorphic intervention combined with peripheral neurostimulation. Mechanism: β-adrenergic/cAMP-induced senescence stabilizes a PPARγ-permissive, Wnt-low chromatin state (increased Sost/Dkk1, reduced β-catenin) in BMSCs → marrow adiposity and RANKL-mediated resorption rise while matrix deposition falls; clearing or silencing these senescent cells restores Wnt responsiveness, and neurostimulation prevents their re-formation. Prediction: Senolytic treatment (dasatinib+quercetin or p16-INK-ATTAC clearance) in stressed mice reverses marrow adiposity and restores bone formation rate, but bone loss recurs when stress continues after senolysis — unless taVNS/β-blockade is co-applied; single-cell profiling of marrow stroma shows the p16-high cluster carrying the adipogenic/RANKL-high signature, which disappears with either intervention.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Non-invasive auricular vagus nerve stimulation restores osteogenesis under chronic stress by rebalancing autonomic tone in bone marrow: increased parasympathetic/cholinergic signalling through α7 nicotinic receptors on marrow macrophages suppresses the sympathetically induced senescent microenvironment and reactivates osteoprogenitors. Mechanism: taVNS raises efferent vagal output → acetylcholine → α7nAChR on marrow macrophages → NF-κB inhibition and reduced IL-1β/TNF/IL-6 → lowered SASP burden plus reduced marrow NE (central sympatho-inhibition) → de-repression of Runx2/osterix and recovery of BMSC clonogenicity. Prediction: Chronically stressed mice receiving daily taVNS regain trabecular BV/TV and show fewer p16+/SA-β-gal+ marrow stromal cells; the benefit is abolished in Chrna7-/- mice or after selective marrow macrophage depletion, and is not reproduced by sham ear stimulation, while marrow NE and SASP cytokines fall in parallel.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Stress-induced sympathetic activity depletes marrow NAD+ in osteoprogenitors through cAMP-driven CD38 upregulation, and this metabolic collapse — not direct transcriptional induction of cell-cycle inhibitors — is the local mechanism that triggers senescence and impairs osteogenesis. Mechanism: β2-AR/cAMP raises CD38 expression on marrow stromal and myeloid cells → NAD+ hydrolysis → reduced SIRT1/SIRT3 activity → mitochondrial dysfunction, cGAS-STING activation by mtDNA release, and senescence; osteogenic differentiation fails because Runx2 acetylation and OXPHOS-dependent matrix synthesis both require NAD+-dependent deacetylation. Prediction: Marrow NAD+ falls before senescence markers rise in stressed mice; CD38 inhibition (78c) or NMN/NR supplementation restores marrow NAD+, prevents p16+ BMSC accumulation and preserves bone formation rate under continued restraint stress, while β-blockade and CD38 inhibition show no additive benefit (same pathway).", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "The local mediator is a sympathetically induced neuropeptide/cytokine secreted by bone marrow sensory-adjacent cells — specifically stress-elevated marrow semaphorin 4D/CXCL12-axis remodeling — but the decisive effector is a single paracrine senescence messenger whose neutralization uncouples sympathetic tone from bone loss. We propose that marrow NGF/pro-inflammatory IL-6 released from β-adrenergically stimulated stromal cells acts as the senescence-propagating mediator. Mechanism: β-adrenergic stimulation of marrow stromal and macrophage populations induces IL-6/NGF secretion; IL-6 trans-signalling via soluble IL-6R and JAK/STAT3 reinforces p21-dependent senescence in neighbouring BMSCs, creating a self-sustaining bystander senescence field that chronically suppresses Runx2/osterix. Prediction: Intramedullary or systemic blockade of IL-6 trans-signalling (sgp130Fc) or NGF/TrkA blockade during chronic stress abolishes the spread of senescent BMSCs and rescues osteoblast number without lowering sympathetic tone; conditioned medium from β-agonist-treated BMSCs transfers senescence to naive BMSCs and this transfer is lost after IL-6 depletion.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42841610", "pmid": "42841610", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70703", "title": "Inhibiting Glutaminase Reverses Senescence-Associated Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Skeletal Muscle Decline.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-10-01", "suitable": true, "reason": "The study experimentally identifies and pharmacologically validates a causal metabolic mechanism linking cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and age-related skeletal muscle decline.", "background": "Ageing commonly causes a progressive loss of skeletal muscle mass, strength and regenerative capacity known as sarcopenia. Mitochondrial respiratory dysfunction is a prominent feature of ageing muscle and is associated with cellular senescence. Senescent cells undergo extensive metabolic changes that may compromise tissue function. However, the causal metabolic processes connecting senescence to mitochondrial impairment and functional muscle decline remained incompletely understood.", "question": "What causal metabolic mechanism links cellular senescence to mitochondrial dysfunction and functional decline in ageing skeletal muscle, and can this mechanism be therapeutically reversed?", "subject": "Senescent muscle metabolism", "finding": "Senescence-associated p38 MAPK signaling increases GLS1 expression and activity in skeletal muscle myoblasts, causing intracellular urea accumulation that impairs mitochondrial function. Inhibiting GLS1 with CB-839 lowers urea, restores electron transport chain complexes and mitochondrial respiration, and improves skeletal muscle integrity and strength in progeroid mice.", "key_points": [ "Senescence activates a p38 MAPK–GLS1 axis", "Elevated GLS1 causes intracellular urea accumulation", "Urea accumulation impairs mitochondrial function", "GLS1 inhibition restores respiratory-chain function", "CB-839 improves muscle structure and strength in progeroid mice" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 3, "text": "Senescent cells act as a glycolytic and glutamine sink in the aged muscle niche, secreting lactate and consuming glutamine to the point that neighbouring myofibers face a cytosolic redox (high NADH/NAD+) and anaplerotic (low α-ketoglutarate) constraint; this stalls the TCA cycle at the α-KG step and is reversible by niche-level lactate clearance or α-KG/dimethyl-α-KG supplementation. Mechanism: Senescent cells have high glycolytic flux with lactate export via MCT4 and high glutaminase activity to support SASP biosynthesis. Local extracellular lactate raises myofiber cytosolic NADH/NAD+, inhibiting GAPDH-independent shuttles and reducing malate–aspartate shuttle delivery of reducing equivalents; simultaneous glutamine depletion lowers glutaminolytic anaplerosis and α-KG. Low α-KG both starves the TCA cycle of carbon and reduces α-KG-dependent dioxygenase activity (TET/JmjC, PHD), locking in a hypoxia-like, pro-senescence transcriptional state and reducing oxidative ATP supply to the contractile apparatus. Prediction: Microdialysis or spatial metabolomics of aged muscle should show interstitial lactate elevation and glutamine/α-KG depletion co-localised with senescent cell clusters; MCT4 inhibition or dimethyl-α-ketoglutarate should restore myofiber α-KG, TCA flux (13C labelling into citrate/succinate) and contractile performance, with greater effect than general anti-inflammatory treatment. Glutaminase inhibition should help only if it kills senescent cells rather than merely blocking the sink.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 1, "text": "Senescence in muscle drives a one-carbon/serine-glycine metabolic rewiring that diverts serine away from mitochondrial formate production, depriving the cell of the formyl-methionine donor needed for mitochondrial translation initiation; the resulting shortfall in mtDNA-encoded OXPHOS subunits causes respiratory failure and sarcopenic weakness, and is reversible by formate or serine/glycine repletion. Mechanism: Senescent cells upregulate cytosolic serine consumption (PHGDH/SHMT1 axis, glutathione and nucleotide demand) and downregulate mitochondrial MTHFD2/SHMT2 flux. Reduced mitochondrial formate lowers 10-formyl-THF and fMet-tRNA charging, so mitoribosomes initiate poorly and mtDNA-encoded core subunits (COX1, ND1, CYTB) are under-produced relative to nuclear-encoded partners. The stoichiometric imbalance destabilises supercomplexes, reduces coupled respiration and triggers a mitochondrial stress response that further suppresses myofiber anabolism. Prediction: Aged muscle with high senescent burden shows a selective deficit of mtDNA-encoded versus nuclear-encoded OXPHOS proteins (ratio shift) with normal mtDNA copy number, and dietary formate or serine/glycine supplementation — but not NAD+ precursors — normalises that ratio, restores complex IV activity and improves specific force. SHMT2 overexpression in aged myofibers should reproduce the rescue.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 2, "text": "Senescent cells impose a paracrine lipid burden on neighbouring myofibers: SASP-associated secretion of oxidised and long-chain lipid species plus senescence-driven suppression of myofiber CPT1b creates intramyocellular acyl-carnitine and diacylglycerol accumulation that inhibits the adenine nucleotide translocase and uncouples respiration, producing weakness that reverses on restoring fatty-acid oxidation flux. Mechanism: Senescent FAPs and infiltrating senescent immune cells release free fatty acids, lysophospholipids and oxylipins. Taken up by myofibers, these exceed β-oxidation capacity because senescence-associated NF-κB/TNF signalling represses PPARδ–CPT1b. Long-chain acyl-CoA and acyl-carnitines accumulate, inhibit ANT-mediated ADP/ATP exchange and promote proton leak, lowering ATP yield per oxygen and raising mitochondrial ROS; chronic ROS then drives RyR1 leak and reduced force per cross-sectional area. Prediction: Lipidomics of aged muscle should show acyl-carnitine accumulation scaling with local p16+ cell density rather than with whole-body adiposity; myofiber-specific CPT1b overexpression or a non-metabolisable carnitine-shuttle enhancer should restore ADP-stimulated respiration and force in old mice without reducing senescent burden, whereas antioxidants alone should improve force but not respiration.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "Senescence-associated loss of mitophagy flux — driven by chronic mTORC1/TFEB dysregulation and lysosomal alkalinisation in both senescent cells and bystander myofibers — allows damaged, depolarised mitochondria to persist and propagate; the retained dysfunctional mitochondria, not senescence per se, cause the respiratory deficit, and restoring PINK1/Parkin-independent BNIP3-mediated mitophagy reverses functional decline. Mechanism: Senescent cells accumulate expanded, iron-loaded lysosomes with impaired acidification and constitutively high mTORC1, which phosphorylates and excludes TFEB from the nucleus. Reduced autophagy–lysosome gene expression lowers mitophagic clearance; SASP cytokines spread the same mTORC1/TFEB block to adjacent myofibers. Depolarised mitochondria accumulate, releasing mtDNA and ROS that sustain cGAS-STING-driven SASP, forming a feed-forward loop that lowers coupled respiration and drives atrophy via FoxO-mediated proteolysis. Prediction: Mito-QC/mt-Keima reporters should show reduced mitophagy index in aged muscle correlated with p16 burden; muscle-specific TFEB activation or BNIP3 overexpression should normalise membrane potential distribution, respiration and force in old mice even when senescent cells are not cleared, and should reduce cytosolic mtDNA and SASP output — whereas blocking mitophagy should abolish the benefit of senolytics.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Senescent cells in aged skeletal muscle become net consumers of NAD+ precursors through sustained CD38 ecto-NADase expression and PARP hyperactivation, draining the myofiber NAD+ pool below the threshold required for sirtuin-dependent mitochondrial biogenesis and complex I assembly. Restoring NAD+ availability (CD38 inhibition or NR/NMN supplementation) should rescue respiration and strength without removing the senescent cells themselves. Mechanism: SASP-driven inflammatory signalling and persistent DNA damage in senescent satellite cells/FAPs upregulate CD38 on neighbouring macrophages and myofibers; CD38 hydrolyses extracellular NAD+/NMN, while nuclear PARP1/2 consume intracellular NAD+. Falling NAD+ lowers SIRT1/SIRT3 activity, reducing PGC-1α-driven mitochondrial biogenesis and leaving complex I subunits hyperacetylated and poorly assembled, which lowers maximal oxidative capacity and force production. Prediction: Muscle-specific or myeloid CD38 deletion in old mice restores myofiber NAD+, complex I-linked respiration and grip/treadmill performance while senescent-cell burden (p16, SASP transcripts) remains unchanged — separating the metabolic mechanism from senolytic clearance. Conversely, senolytics should raise NAD+ before respiration improves, and their benefit should be abolished in CD38-null muscle.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42806003", "pmid": "42806003", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-026-77217-5", "title": "CD38-activated macrophages drive age-related placental senescence by depleting NAD+ in decidual stromal cells.", "journal": "Nat Commun", "earliest_public_date": "2026-08-27", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal mechanism linking reproductive ageing to placental senescence and adverse offspring outcomes.", "background": "Advanced maternal age is associated with placental dysfunction, impaired fetal growth, and increased risks to offspring health. Ageing tissues commonly exhibit metabolic disruption, chronic inflammation, and accumulation of senescent cells with a senescence-associated secretory phenotype. The placenta contains interacting maternal and fetal compartments whose metabolic state and inflammatory environment influence pregnancy outcomes. However, the causal processes through which maternal ageing induces placental senescence and developmental complications remained unclear.", "question": "What intercellular mechanism causes placental senescence during maternal ageing, and can disrupting this mechanism restore placental and offspring health?", "subject": "Age-related placental senescence", "finding": "Early inflammation and senescence-associated secretory phenotype activity induce IRF5-dependent CD38 expression in macrophages, which depletes NAD+ in decidual stromal cells and thereby promotes age-related placental senescence. Genetic or pharmacological disruption of this axis, including CD38 inhibition or NAD+ precursor treatment, reduces placental senescence, rescues intrauterine growth restriction, and improves offspring metabolic outcomes.", "key_points": [ "Early inflammation and SASP activate macrophage IRF5", "IRF5 increases macrophage CD38 expression", "Macrophage CD38 depletes stromal-cell NAD+", "NAD+ loss drives placental senescence", "CD38 inhibition or NAD+ replenishment rescues age-related outcomes" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Maternal ageing causes placental senescence through a specific immune-cell interaction: dysfunctional aged uterine NK cells and pro-inflammatory decidual macrophages engage trophoblast via contact-dependent signalling and interferon/TNF output, driving trophoblast senescence and failed spiral-artery remodelling. Depleting or re-polarising this immune population rescues the placenta. Mechanism: Aged uNK cells lose angiogenic (VEGF/PlGF) output and gain IFN-γ/TNF-α secretion; decidual macrophages shift to an inflammatory state. IFN-γ–driven STAT1 and cGAS–STING signalling in trophoblast (fed by cytosolic DNA from replication stress) induces type-I-IFN-associated senescence, while impaired artery remodelling adds hypoxic stress that reinforces it. Prediction: uNK depletion or trophoblast-specific STING/IFNAR1 loss in aged dams restores spiral-artery remodelling, lowers trophoblast SA-β-gal/p21, and normalises fetal weight; adoptive transfer of aged uNK cells into young dams reproduces the phenotype. Immune-to-trophoblast contact frequency should correlate with local senescence burden in imaging.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 3, "text": "The initiating intercellular mechanism is metabolic: aged maternal cells at the interface create a local nutrient/metabolite environment — depleted NAD+ precursors and raised lipid/ceramide and lactate load — that forces trophoblast into senescence. Restoring the transferred metabolite (e.g. NAD+ precursor supplementation or ceramide-synthesis blockade) reverses placental senescence. Mechanism: Reduced maternal NAMPT/NAD+ salvage lowers precursor delivery to trophoblast, impairing sirtuin-dependent mitochondrial quality control and PARP-mediated DNA repair; concurrently aged decidual lipolysis delivers saturated fatty acids and ceramides that trigger mitochondrial ROS and the DNA-damage response. The combination locks trophoblast into a p21-high, SASP-secreting state that further degrades nutrient transport, a feed-forward loop. Prediction: Nicotinamide riboside/NMN given to aged dams, or trophoblast-specific NAMPT overexpression, lowers placental senescence markers and normalises pup weight; metabolomics of aged decidua shows NAD+-precursor depletion preceding senescence onset, and ex vivo trophoblast explants become senescent when cultured in aged-decidua conditioned medium only if NAD+ precursors are withheld.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 1, "text": "The causal intercellular carrier is aged-maternal small extracellular vesicles: exosomal miRNAs from aged decidua/maternal circulation are taken up by trophoblast, repress mitochondrial and proliferative programmes, and induce senescence. Inhibiting vesicle biogenesis or neutralising the specific miRNA cargo restores placental function and offspring health. Mechanism: Ageing shifts maternal sEV cargo toward senescence-associated miRNAs (e.g. miR-34a, miR-146a, miR-29) and away from growth-supporting cargo. Trophoblast uptake represses SIRT1/PGC-1α and cell-cycle drivers, lowering mitochondrial respiration and raising ROS, which engages the DNA-damage/p21 axis and a self-amplifying SASP. Prediction: Injecting sEVs purified from aged decidua into young pregnant animals reproduces placental senescence and fetal growth restriction, while sEVs from young donors do not; Rab27a/nSMase2 blockade or an antagomir against the top enriched miRNA in aged mothers normalises placental weight, labyrinth vascularity and pup birthweight. Fluorescently labelled aged sEVs must be demonstrably internalised by trophoblast.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 4, "text": "A single dominant ligand–receptor pair mediates the effect, making the mechanism pharmacologically interruptible: aged maternal cells overexpress a senescence-inducing ligand (candidate axes: IGF2/IGFBP, Wnt/β-catenin antagonists such as DKK1/SFRP, or activin A/GDF15) whose cognate receptor on trophoblast triggers the senescence programme. Receptor blockade during pregnancy in aged mothers restores placental architecture, birthweight and long-term offspring metabolic and cognitive health. Mechanism: Ligand–receptor engagement activates SMAD2/3 or suppresses Wnt-dependent trophoblast self-renewal, collapsing the progenitor pool; exhausted progenitors arrest with p21/p16 and secrete SASP, shrinking the labyrinth exchange surface. Because the lesion is a defined receptor, a blocking antibody or small molecule given from mid-gestation should be sufficient without clearing senescent cells. Prediction: Ligand–receptor interaction scoring on paired aged/young maternal–fetal single-cell data identifies one axis with the largest age-dependent increase; recombinant ligand infusion into young dams reproduces placental senescence, and a blocking antibody or trophoblast-specific receptor knockout in aged dams rescues placental and offspring phenotypes more completely than broad senolytic or anti-inflammatory treatment. Offspring followed to adulthood show normalised glucose tolerance and behaviour.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 0, "text": "Maternal ageing drives placental senescence through transfer of senescence-promoting signals from aged maternal decidual cells to fetal trophoblast across the maternal–fetal interface. Blocking this directional paracrine transfer in aged mothers prevents trophoblast senescence and restores fetal growth. Mechanism: Aged decidual stromal and immune cells acquire a SASP enriched in IL-6, IL-1β, CXCL ligands and TGF-β-family factors. These diffuse into the adjacent trophoblast layer, where receptor-driven NF-κB and p38 signalling induces p16/p21 and a secondary senescence programme — paracrine 'bystander' senescence spreading from the maternal to the fetal compartment. The senescent trophoblast loses nutrient-transport and endocrine capacity, causing growth restriction. Prediction: In aged-mother/young-decidua chimeric or decidua-specific interventions (e.g. decidual-restricted p16-INK-ATTAC clearance, or decidua-restricted IL-1R/IL-6R knockout), fetal trophoblast senescence markers and placental efficiency normalise, whereas the same intervention applied to trophoblast alone gives partial rescue. Spatial transcriptomics should show a senescence gradient decaying with distance from the decidual border, with maternal-compartment onset preceding fetal-compartment onset in time-course sampling.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42806572", "pmid": "42806572", "doi": "10.1111/acel.70742", "title": "uPAR-Targeting T Cell Engager Exerts Senolytic Effects in Mice and Non-Human Primates With Serum Aminotransferase Activity as a Safety Monitor.", "journal": "Aging Cell", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-29", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a causal senolytic mechanism and its effects on age-related pathology in animal models.", "background": "Senescent cells accumulate with age and can promote tissue dysfunction through persistent inflammatory and remodeling signals. Experimental removal of these cells can improve several age-related phenotypes, supporting cellular senescence as a causal contributor to declining health. Immune-mediated senolysis offers a way to eliminate selected senescent cells, but differences between therapeutic and toxic exposure can complicate translation. A major open problem is whether an externally controllable treatment can achieve effective senolysis in both rodents and primates while providing a practical marker of emerging toxicity.", "question": "Can a dose-titratable immune engager safely eliminate senescent cells and alleviate age-related pathology across mice and non-human primates, and what measurement can guide its safe dosing?", "subject": "Controllable immune-mediated senolysis", "finding": "A GFD-CD3 bispecific T-cell engager targeting uPAR-positive senescent cells caused dose-dependent senolysis and alleviated age-related pathologies in aged mice and non-human primates at low doses. High doses caused hepatotoxicity through T-cell attack on hepatic endothelial cells, while serum aminotransferase monitoring enabled dosing that retained senolytic efficacy without observed adverse effects.", "key_points": [ "GFD-CD3 targets uPAR-positive senescent cells", "Low-dose treatment produces senolysis in mice and non-human primates", "Senolysis alleviates age-related pathologies", "High-dose toxicity results from T-cell attack on hepatic endothelial cells", "Serum aminotransferase activity provides a safety monitor for dose titration" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "phenomenon_absent", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 1, "text": "Serum IL-6 kinetics in the first 6–24 h after engager dosing is the practical safety-guiding measurement: peak IL-6 rises super-linearly with dose above the therapeutic window and predicts subsequent organ injury, whereas therapeutic senolysis occurs at doses producing only a modest, transient IL-6 bump. Mechanism: Engager-mediated T-cell activation releases IFN-γ/TNF that drive monocyte and endothelial IL-6; the magnitude of this cascade reflects total number of simultaneously engaged target cells, which is the same quantity that determines off-target lysis of antigen-low normal tissue. IL-6 therefore reads out the shared upstream driver of both efficacy and toxicity but saturates for efficacy earlier than for toxicity. Prediction: Across mice and NHPs, peak early IL-6 (not drug concentration, not ALT, not lymphocyte count) is the single best predictor of later weight loss/organ histopathology, with a species-shared threshold; prophylactic IL-6R blockade or step-up dosing that caps IL-6 below that threshold preserves senescent-cell clearance while abolishing the toxicity.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 0, "text": "A bispecific T-cell engager targeting uPAR (PLAUR) on senescent cells and CD3 on T cells will clear senescent cells in aged mice and non-human primates, with titratable dosing because engager occupancy and the resulting cytolytic synapse number scale with circulating drug concentration. Efficacy appears as reduced senescence burden plus improved metabolic and physical function; toxicity appears as on-target clearance of uPAR-expressing myeloid and endothelial compartments. Mechanism: uPAR is a cell-surface antigen broadly upregulated on senescent cells across tissues; a short-half-life CD3 bispecific redirects endogenous cytotoxic T cells to lyse uPAR-high cells via perforin/granzyme, and because the engager is a reversible bridge rather than a persistent engineered cell, exposure and therefore senolysis depend continuously on dose and can be stopped. Prediction: Dose-response in both species shows a window where p16/p21-high and uPAR-high cells fall by >50% and grip strength/glucose tolerance improve, while below-threshold doses do nothing and above-threshold doses cause cytokine elevation and hepatic/endothelial injury — and the window is reproducible when dosing is scaled by exposure (AUC), not body weight.", "strict": 1, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 4 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 4 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 3, "text": "Pulsed, intermittent dosing (hit-and-run, separated by intervals longer than target re-accumulation but shorter than fibrotic consolidation) produces durable alleviation of age-related pathology with less toxicity than continuous exposure, because senescent-cell killing is a one-time event whereas toxicity depends on sustained T-cell activation. Mechanism: Senescent cells are post-mitotic and do not repopulate rapidly, so clearance persists after drug washout; by contrast, bystander injury and cytokine release require ongoing engagement. Spacing doses also allows T-cell exhaustion markers and tissue macrophage pools to reset between cycles, restoring cytolytic capacity for the next pulse. Prediction: Matched cumulative dose given as 3 widely spaced pulses versus continuous infusion yields equal or greater reduction in senescent burden and equal functional improvement, but markedly lower cumulative IL-6 exposure, less T-cell PD-1/TOX upregulation, and no histologic injury — and benefit persists ≥8 weeks after the last pulse.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 2, "text": "Senolysis efficacy is limited by senescent-cell immune evasion rather than by antigen abundance: senescent cells upregulate HLA-E/MHC-I-like inhibitory ligands and PD-L1, so a dose-titratable engager achieves full clearance only when combined with relief of that checkpoint, which simultaneously lowers the dose needed and widens the safety window. Mechanism: Senescent cells persist in aged tissue despite immune surveillance because NKG2A/HLA-E and PD-1/PD-L1 signaling blunts cytotoxic killing at the synapse. Lowering the inhibitory signal increases per-synapse kill probability, so the same clearance is achieved at lower engager occupancy and hence lower systemic T-cell activation. Prediction: Combination with HLA-E/NKG2A or PD-1 blockade shifts the senolysis dose-response curve left by ≥3-fold without shifting the IL-6/toxicity curve, and HLA-E expression on senescent cells measured ex vivo predicts which tissues resist monotherapy clearance.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 4, "text": "The dominant toxicity of immune senolysis is not target-antigen cross-reactivity but acute loss of physiologically senescent or antigen-sharing cells required for tissue repair and homeostasis — notably wound-site fibroblasts, regenerating liver cells, and placental/bone-remodeling compartments — so therapeutic index is set by the tissue context of dosing rather than by the engager's specificity. Mechanism: Senescence-associated antigens are transiently expressed during normal wound healing, tissue remodeling and regeneration. An engager cannot distinguish chronic pathological senescence from acute beneficial senescence, so dosing during active repair converts an otherwise safe exposure into impaired healing and tissue failure. Prediction: The same dose that is well tolerated in unchallenged aged mice and NHPs causes delayed wound closure, impaired liver regeneration after partial hepatectomy, and reduced bone density when given during those processes — and this toxicity is not predicted by drug concentration or IL-6, but by a tissue-injury-context covariate, establishing that safe dosing requires both an inflammatory marker and an exclusion of active-repair states.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] }, { "id": "R42748238", "pmid": "42748238", "doi": "10.1126/sciadv.aed1961", "title": "Endothelial C/EBPβ/AEP pathway drives vascular deterioration and systemic aging.", "journal": "Sci Adv", "earliest_public_date": "2026-09-16", "suitable": true, "reason": "The paper experimentally establishes a specific causal pathway that links age-related vascular degeneration to systemic senescence and reduced lifespan.", "background": "Microvascular function declines with age, impairing tissue perfusion, nutrient delivery, and waste clearance. Vascular deterioration is associated with dysfunction across multiple organs and with increased frailty and mortality. Cellular senescence and altered metabolic homeostasis are recognized contributors to age-related tissue decline. However, the molecular mechanism by which vascular aging can drive organism-wide aging and shorten lifespan remained unclear.", "question": "What molecular mechanism causes age-related vascular deterioration to promote systemic senescence and shorten lifespan?", "subject": "Vascular control of systemic aging", "finding": "Progressive activation of endothelial C/EBPβ induces AEP, which cleaves NAMPT and thereby causes systemic NAD+ depletion, vascular dysfunction, senescence, and reduced lifespan. Genetic disruption of AEP or expression of cleavage-resistant NAMPT N136A ameliorates these effects, while AEP inhibition or NMN supplementation alleviates age-related vascular decline.", "key_points": [ "Endothelial C/EBPβ activates AEP during aging", "AEP cleaves the NAD+ biosynthetic enzyme NAMPT", "NAMPT cleavage causes systemic NAD+ depletion and senescence", "The pathway drives vascular dysfunction and lifespan reduction", "Blocking AEP or preventing NAMPT cleavage rescues the phenotype" ], "roles": [ "heretical", "cross_domain", "scout" ], "candidates": [ { "id": "H1", "index": 2, "text": "Senescent endothelial cells act as the seed of systemic aging by exporting senescence through the circulation: their extracellular vesicles carry miRNAs and cGAMP that transmit a senescent program to distant parenchymal cells. Mechanism: Endothelial cells are uniquely positioned to broadcast into blood. On becoming senescent (telomere attrition at high-turnover sites, oxidative and shear stress), they release EVs enriched in senescence-propagating miRNAs (e.g., miR-21, miR-34a, miR-146a) and the STING agonist 2'3'-cGAMP from cytosolic-DNA sensing. Recipient cells activate cGAS–STING/NF-κB, arrest, and amplify SASP, producing a contagion that scales with endothelial surface area and therefore affects every organ. Prediction: Transfusing plasma EVs from aged (or senescence-induced) endothelium into young mice raises p16 and SASP in multiple organs and shortens lifespan, while the same EVs from STING-pathway-deficient or miRNA-depleted endothelium do not; endothelial-restricted senolysis (e.g., Cdh5-driven INK-ATTAC) lowers senescence burden in non-vascular organs and extends lifespan more than equivalent senolysis in a non-vascular compartment.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 1 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H2", "index": 4, "text": "Vascular aging shortens lifespan by degrading the perivascular stem-cell niche: endothelial and pericyte loss of niche factors (Jagged1, Notch ligands, SDF-1/CXCL12, Wnt) exhausts adult stem and progenitor pools, so tissue turnover fails and senescent, damaged cells accumulate across organs. Mechanism: Most adult stem cells (HSCs, muscle satellite cells, neural progenitors, mesenchymal progenitors) reside within microns of capillaries and depend on angiocrine ligands for quiescence and self-renewal. Aged endothelium switches its angiocrine output (↓Jagged1/CXCL12, ↑SASP cytokines and Wnt-pathway ligands), pushing progenitors into dysfunctional differentiation or senescence; the resulting regenerative failure manifests as sarcopenia, immune aging with clonal hematopoiesis, and cognitive decline, which jointly limit lifespan. Prediction: Endothelial-specific deletion of Jagged1/CXCL12 in young mice phenocopies aged stem-cell compartments (skewed hematopoiesis, impaired muscle regeneration) with raised organ-level senescence and shortened lifespan, while endothelial-specific restoration in aged mice rejuvenates progenitor function and extends lifespan; transplanting aged progenitors into a young vascular niche restores their function, showing the defect is niche-encoded rather than cell-intrinsic.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H3", "index": 0, "text": "Aged endothelial cells lose a key metabolic enzyme that supplies a circulating NAD+ precursor to downstream tissues, so systemic NAD+ availability falls and senescence spreads organism-wide. Restoring the endothelial enzyme, or supplying the precursor, reverses systemic senescence and extends lifespan. Mechanism: Microvascular endothelium normally secretes an extracellular NAD+-biosynthetic enzyme (e.g., eNAMPT in extracellular vesicles) into plasma. Age-related endothelial dysfunction and capillary rarefaction reduce this secretion; parenchymal cells in muscle, brain, heart and kidney consequently cannot maintain NAD+ pools, sirtuin activity drops, mitochondrial and DNA-repair capacity fail, and cells enter a p16/p21 senescent state with SASP output that further damages the vasculature — a feed-forward loop. Prediction: Endothelial-specific knockout of the secreted enzyme in young mice lowers plasma precursor levels, drops NAD+ and raises senescence markers in distal non-vascular organs, and shortens lifespan; endothelial-specific overexpression (or precursor repletion) in aged mice restores distal-tissue NAD+, clears senescence and extends lifespan. Parenchymal-cell-specific knockout of the same enzyme does not reproduce the systemic phenotype, distinguishing a vascular-origin secreted factor from cell-autonomous metabolic decline.", "strict": 0, "core": 1, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 3 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 3 } ] }, { "id": "H4", "index": 3, "text": "Age-related breakdown of endothelial barrier integrity causes systemic senescence: leaked plasma proteins (fibrinogen, albumin, IgG) and gut-derived microbial products enter tissue parenchyma and trigger innate-immune, TGF-β and inflammasome signalling that drives senescence and shortens lifespan. Mechanism: Loss of tight-junction and glycocalyx components (claudin-5, VE-cadherin, syndecan-1) with age, plus pericyte dropout, makes capillaries leaky. Extravasated fibrinogen activates microglia/macrophages via CD11b-CD18; LPS and other MAMPs engage TLR4–NLRP3; TGF-β carried in plasma imposes a pro-senescent, pro-fibrotic program. Chronic sterile inflammation plus fibrosis reduces organ reserve and accelerates mortality. Prediction: Endothelial-specific claudin-5 (or glycocalyx) restoration in aged mice reduces parenchymal plasma-protein deposition, lowers senescence and inflammatory markers in brain, kidney and muscle, and extends lifespan; conversely young mice with endothelial-specific claudin-5 knockdown develop multi-organ senescence without any change in NAD+ levels or capillary density, separating barrier failure from metabolic and perfusion mechanisms.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] }, { "id": "H5", "index": 1, "text": "Vascular aging shortens lifespan primarily through loss of endothelial-derived pro-angiogenic/trophic signalling (VEGF–Notch/Apelin axis), which causes capillary rarefaction and chronic micro-hypoxia; HIF-driven metabolic stress then converts parenchymal cells to a senescent state across organs. Mechanism: Aged endothelium downregulates VEGF signalling and Apelin/APJ autocrine support, leading to capillary dropout. Reduced perfusion creates intermittent tissue hypoxia and substrate deprivation; sustained HIF-1α plus mitochondrial ROS induce replication-independent senescence in myocytes, hepatocytes, neurons and stem/progenitor pools, impairing regeneration and driving frailty. Prediction: Sustained systemic VEGF (or endothelial Apelin restoration) in aged mice re-expands capillary density, normalizes tissue oxygen tension, lowers p16/p21 and SASP in muscle and brain, and extends median lifespan; blocking the hypoxia arm (parenchymal HIF-1α deletion) uncouples capillary rarefaction from senescence spread, which the NAD+ and EV hypotheses do not predict.", "strict": 0, "core": 0, "judgeScores": [ { "judge": "gpt-5.6-sol", "score": 2 }, { "judge": "gemini-4-argon-medium", "score": 0 }, { "judge": "grok-4.7", "score": 2 } ] } ] } ] }, "sourceHashes": { "protocol.json": "f8fde34ec25d0a0ee9bb75728bb01172ec2576ba5a2e5f6b6c58ec631d448aee", "cohort.json": "2585e4078d9e937f40eb73ff8032f632b2267a65c1b3ba0582a3d2ff6e14e718", "coin.json": "a9f535483a7c57478b4b9a30436ddec9b729c1dfa475a422334505f92bb7ca0d", "preprint-recheck/42581103.json": "5c1941ae2fa9fe444d25717a6043a1adc53684b153863d14dc93c2b70494e4ef", "preprint-recheck/42601407.json": "4e2ce010756ef968110e0470a823c56a35bbf1bc1c2be05cc22ee1ff4484e8d4", "preprint-recheck/42605193.json": "d2a6dc7deb692653cf5b257ad54ab3e0601daee8e9bdbd4eb0c8b3a86827f810", "preprint-recheck/42608398.json": "2affc7ebfb766320eb6e1e333d57932249d82f651c766bec4420a4add277e2f5", "preprint-recheck/42627902.json": "4eef147ac314b026898553f24abc4b9d77411a701c90952630a834cf7a21a3a9", "preprint-recheck/42630044.json": "2802601671cc252ae8d238ff7510b7543b3cb6ed83502a373300fdac3caf3818", "preprint-recheck/42639736.json": "113e459f6757f74a8bfd48dd293ad6864e4766b953ec484da64db7d4019173d2", "preprint-recheck/42642518.json": "74beaa73d2bc399a8bf6174ac8af57d37a132113c3acc68e61a8cef05c81a207", "preprint-recheck/42642521.json": "2fbe5ceb76034a368c52157301a2d18aff0f7eaabf227ffadce6a8795e6b9f9a", "preprint-recheck/42647119.json": "9a5f475c801f07a93364ec5218fcd1b93f25d61525ecd7e911a6bdca5d7bcd74", "preprint-recheck/42647635.json": "ff359c36fac074a2a6a6ea150b5fd756c27519c6951a73cfbba40bf8905445de", "preprint-recheck/42663085.json": "e833a970ab954dc73ad2c59c3762319f93f08b4358729baf05ed22353a2e3b51", "preprint-recheck/42664348.json": "020547c9c8ed1f12e2e2a325b4b7a864c6f6457b337c1187d784bf40da847464", "preprint-recheck/42665751.json": "1454efa58125ff0fe9961560518a56d7b719a3d008256220c035d74df4bb8e10", "preprint-recheck/42689491.json": "ee5ba161a2c3f81cd9063221a58eb04c5f6a2301ae4dd34edaccfeb772c7afb1", "preprint-recheck/42696595.json": "5a65b7d7d64161ca5e8f56993d67e7b3ed5fe72f1978587bca35ef4a8b2137bc", "preprint-recheck/42698274.json": "8fc555d4d0b13711f43d4ee79b499d643ab12262c248aaaf4598f1b311cb0f2a", "preprint-recheck/42717261.json": "22b31ffdc3b5f0153e076f4ae82c350df1804b64f5785f36427796332f649ae2", "preprint-recheck/42723546.json": "ede3def9d1235fdab9b58109d3d912ced36e4bd4f3cbee9b66a728d9d9d86648", "preprint-recheck/42725837.json": "f882512cfc78cf5aadd082ffa7de355562009cef2c7249aeaefec9577e23ed77", "preprint-recheck/42736449.json": "24ca01968ef074a621248e48ac4495d4c6af08c981f10d300ec756ae177f9114", "preprint-recheck/42744804.json": "6f91cb12f10c40f65f9a9296f3787ef64b1a38dd967019ce86eb9f65f7dd25ca", "preprint-recheck/42749700.json": "41a8c4349c3d4822633ebd7df038e8fe0538e12c791e9250a6b1f1fb54389a6b", "preprint-recheck/42758848.json": "a5b6ffd09182c55303af260ede2be8f75daa8b2afa91224de1566506a725acf3", "preprint-recheck/42759510.json": "03ed3241592a911eb7afb17f3420769cdc7cb842c5dacb762c03ad658bfcbe41", "preprint-recheck/42775695.json": "7154e3d9594f685a0597d197a1bd248e9b2c74877b93432c77bbd7d12e0fb40f", "preprint-recheck/42775698.json": "4e62373433b432017d88e093edf9e3c89b6ce919e1061333f365ceed9a8a7746", "preprint-recheck/42786310.json": "a442312ce7d33e857a4fcb17fac731988aacb02d551100a93487817ed98266d8", "preprint-recheck/42805954.json": "63ce449723c29c4a63d6ecefcce6d11e7c108c9a5de7d8ea7c9fbb416e11e5fd", "preprint-recheck/42810392.json": "f1108d01df89c43887402bc2d08fe08f32243bf9a140ad3eb1ca6f199b97a314", "preprint-recheck/42811497.json": "097b90b1703ac5ae612729004a77dd19449c322f8845b046eb035f9e9fe0072e", "preprint-recheck/42821663.json": "8a1778e859adc325aa08b5525ca65ac3dcb3a636c9a8a284bd008b36cff94cd1", "preprint-recheck/42822442.json": "92fffd9dd32d8ad347a092b994733904cf5fae7fde0b399bef5b4d9c1d85961f", "preprint-recheck/42826184.json": "dc24d46df16c4b3ab0da58ee2eac854f2cd03711f682c9d27c3e0810dd9f2d31", "preprint-recheck/42839094.json": "207c04f165fca3b57e4d1cadacf86bebd57a899fee996d735c8e677196d62908", "preprint-recheck/42841227.json": "778ce001b65a73ac02f1542baea8dfd3a02b815e4034e74615f3015a4da35c5e", "preprint-recheck/42842666.json": "4b55f4f514e7761a1b7faf11cdf8788a8aa7688d93db4eaf0e4b0a90657dc49d", "preprint-recheck/42844664.json": "f4ddd99e5df65233f9d7861b78580a4c7f77401cb698914145c9319b496953f4", "preprint-recheck/42853938.json": "813a879cd9f49c09a3f2ddad4c35adbd14336982fe6e5dc944d955b52472fa1f", "preprint-recheck/42858183.json": "862570ebf41aa383d24f443fa691690a2a60d10040fc14ba3df8563e74a7ecc6", "preprint-recheck/42806945.json": "1fdac0ec43a27c04bc2daced28859367146490e040f9eef443748df92876306a", "preprint-recheck/42723144.json": "225d8029290c9677182ec2440505ed8c7e9751cf0ad61f1242888da77225b4eb", "preprint-recheck/42808804.json": "be67b12477022ac349ee6f036a700d9ea52f4c7000dbcf9967b8d6b2c591ab86", "preprint-recheck/42585340.json": "24c0d67efecb5d4a38f54c979f38298e37c3f630b42d0f9f0c348947d1f926cf", "preprint-recheck/42669067.json": "619a4dda793b2d8f7cc1d8073291d6138253f52bea88a9480018ab156cc7170d", "preprint-recheck/42811065.json": "e9d5ea290a527f68e6ac8a57ea8aeae895b5bfb02ff27f91aec40092bfe80cb9", "preprint-recheck/42841610.json": "4c4dd91ebaf7c4b3a2a09c363a2ba223458eeec1245921554369f921fe79f9f7", "preprint-recheck/42806003.json": "27c2712abf56b5bec2678ec32c6b54f65595b87ae6d5e3db5a3f099cf2c0a62c", "preprint-recheck/42806572.json": "c83c0e0310d9b91da2a38b9a74bbf87cf3d0be564244a411803061b3e26349b7", "preprint-recheck/42748238.json": "5c804e68b13403709f4054269ab8bacd884dc483643992ddcd33e61b040f47e2", "protocol-clarifications.json": "0b601c9c147a8af1233ee50a53aedb408254b45903b3e93bf2b2263112d6ef0a", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/config.json": "ec01956070371f21fd076836a9910afd3598c6efae78fa3c83f07b1bd0b0272e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/requests.json": "0c0f11c64671dc8041d7821a34092bbb260261a80e3770a2097fa3b28fdb8498", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/isolation-audit.json": "956cdcedd971c3cfedeb901dd00ccec2be03481cdf1e8c2a6cfc52e1245bce7d", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/transport-attempts.json": "7b264351582943245af59b25897e4ad2bc1dcd6959bc4fb477ea81e8f3bca120", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/eligibility.json": "ef4b8dcfe3e85cdc95e9863cc18cf0e75cf428b46347f811e54a1b9db49ab5fd", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42581103.attempt-1.json": "565751bedc5163a32cb5ba04883016c4f7d353cd9e6e08bcceb9f7e5c0d33e84", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42581103.json": "d2f5f836dd640dd0625e3f206146d15de945f3ca6491b702f848c93a4bb519b1", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42601407.attempt-1.json": "9348eaa45169b2d9c1ee86299114cc6026cc92e71375db590dbfccd46bb57c33", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42601407.json": "fcf3bf6f5759a19c1f578a9df4b3a04434996b7de1d58a813fbe439cd93408f1", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42605193.attempt-1.json": "83ce6d0bef73bedf2cf6f677987b22f38063d8301313a1c995068a99830059f4", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42605193.json": "2a84140f1e854c323a6634e56b424a16426d1b371cba6b9663112bd4eb7ac2a1", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42608398.attempt-1.json": "95c3fc764d1e64b4c055edaac75afc66295440b725dc444f3913a02d23c37a9c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42608398.attempt-2.json": "c0ff91c3ebd17e43329e781b237c9ae8b4a5cbbe4e7bfcdebda26a7a9c8d8159", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42608398.json": "604c6f49fb57db206a3c2307ac64fb8e17a189aafcb30a2d13fcce336f280764", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42627902.attempt-1.json": "0001ea75a990b02f1e5070dbf21885e72dda92d3cd96235760203321bac97df0", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42627902.json": "b8f2063b35722442ebd4286ce269ee14bdf7a372c759fa362c0ab8a03e8fa81b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42630044.attempt-1.json": "10a8ac48b2d0862b3c21d92cecd04d248bf198b1e673c06eeeb8328f800d2736", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42630044.json": "a544610a42a32f975c5626a45bfbe10cb97550e24ccefb01d47ad2223c25920b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42639736.attempt-1.json": "28f54778ffcf2deda4074ad9cb485cd25b114511705bf42c16ade837fe249ff7", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42639736.json": "609bd6a73fb4fd29867b8f8ca700145340efe37cfbf4b9f54bf85dee882aa875", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42642518.attempt-1.json": "3cbd85f5ebd1409e68007c49202134a96ef07e062fb998a48365e631195310e0", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42642518.json": "b28920a400c304ed9673662dd202b7d528e6d714b82522289d7ffe2c426c102c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42642521.attempt-1.json": "8db0d98cee07db13136564163824b92245f356e3fe487b471909dc28fa945aeb", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42642521.json": "ef5a61ccb04bf2eee06c2a7f157b59c23958772f6553113334b9ae223b6e315a", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42647119.attempt-1.json": "4f312a1a0aa7055b668b0d6583f13a7a6c7699c3db6a957996d8755fc2c2bc30", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42647119.attempt-2.json": "64fdbe05a3793478401daca039b613213f61f9c3c094ebd894b8d1e7cf716255", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42647119.json": "1ef7f2b8e386a228e62e0bd6d30f702f0595d9d5d0a2c73c9a2d3f8f4eebf6b2", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42647635.attempt-1.json": "c4dfbf427097dbe8b68e6f573b09dbf2687e593ba2ff5a135bab3b2491235f21", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42647635.json": "c59f20fb8a1e7dd71d51f0326e7ff45cf2e4a9b7d5b22b052a8be03a02f9c69b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42663085.attempt-1.json": "97c452c22c8cafbba47915cc1ae86dc51152ec78077d7cdd051a90e737488555", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42663085.json": "380cdd5b5127c2134f3f67911cedc16feb035ce9589e2acdb2582067ea1dd637", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42664348.attempt-1.json": "dff210ccefbe967b7268bb7375416c605fbf49d646d7a42697264a8ea030a77f", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42664348.attempt-2.json": "b3e78a861182c76f838258b5938d088be586ffbdcb724f0afb9376877ea1a9d4", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42664348.json": "92ca2db491e13a9b9c413e0921ec9a8f97f8ba843955397b094e85ce7f822210", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42665751.attempt-1.json": "b88bba93e119d4da38fd498d53dfa1e79f43b92fd8b6bb620062851e3508eb57", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42665751.json": "db89a73e66c9b7c8e1c122d299345ad57c8163f03a80022538fbdb5bca26fee8", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42689491.attempt-1.json": "746e5c4682fed06bf08ee8ccb9c1a5db76e43891d8735b30ec29c6626272e564", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42689491.json": "dc6cc8e10025821bc10f225e9f491aae1651778a07fdb1147abb86ad20e38961", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42696595.attempt-1.json": "ce42b6763d0cfbcd619cd46028efd63ac5255df87c09c1f2b0fb271adcb0763e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42696595.json": "5e2ffd519d8c77d62a464bda81eb655874e462226820ef04be17238f2dc62d1b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42698274.attempt-1.json": "fb50aa73fa1f31a683d00b8170d0d45c3e52b850b033b2545ad4c48210c05a86", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42698274.json": "bca958731d7356a9ea8793b3c41217d1b056740077cc6386e6883eb54b6da7c5", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42717261.attempt-1.json": "e2c85e763161c8b11487c5f09abb5532eae2c5c0f610d267a01798d36a92e1ff", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42717261.json": "2a52f75935bc1ac298e453e63c71f9dff8f455d0b7de7e47d71a88aec08044f3", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42723546.attempt-1.json": "26c98fd2cd4c5f6dfe43ddb634a34169fe8a3f9118e7f582b3f561d1cfda3de7", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42723546.attempt-2.json": "a119a4c69227abd879f8c882492c6b79a8c8bbd5a5dc713774926d1379afa8af", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42723546.json": "8b2b0c8e9401f6bbad56bda18d741a8b8abd3961da1307d9f4bab39ec6af8754", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42725837.attempt-1.json": "604d240a85f428a7138bef2a0f6d1b7b8015dfb0018243db478cff35a8180eb2", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42725837.attempt-2.json": "b92578f078820f8d0271bd1a8aa18a909d29c345faa5cf0e9229d0ed4965e754", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42725837.json": "34500498f34ac29bfd6c793ac66e2036d1c37fb3a4f21550197263d75df19400", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42736449.attempt-1.json": "7533161a40104cf041290917a6df1bb7c9b94b6a57ef74ae452267c846995950", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42736449.json": "55a74a4c4fa54bada6184687ca34e9456703264526a6fd0e40153224ea0794c3", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42744804.attempt-1.json": "8e38f8c450f2b3e776535db7e0cd5f04addd1f717c1ca548b2523085b5f3fc94", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42744804.json": "64449f2f25db31fced1bab756f863adb799542e5c89e37d7aaa55a648e6c2c4b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42749700.attempt-1.json": "b3b225f28119eef526946e96d6eb6246960f9a218c4f77f82e76fa6d041f8c07", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42749700.json": "7f40b9df30b83e66202005d2d8c17265503d7faf7e146169af72924aa1ecfc49", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42758848.attempt-1.json": "523f5012b9a63aca1ae5734b758cd566b3d092caa3e5a3803abe977b78f676ae", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42758848.json": "a8a818334cee6dee622e0b0dae5362c7b9cbd8c2d202f155a654502d756ca76e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42759510.attempt-1.json": "41b2918b3fef56192e2830ec5fcf1411c3c7a6639610ebe52c41dfe31ea42e6e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42759510.attempt-2.json": "67f2c114a7484ef354070824fbc4fa2cd2d5c971eb28d0a64e85da7432d6099f", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42759510.json": "3f52058aacd6bdf4eb18039aff3ef26e021eb9fce927f67dc6959edb4a2277bd", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42775695.attempt-1.json": "94e769f5a42191c0a02fa0fe790683a0eecbed1647a977d54c6d6283de146b9b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42775695.json": "1c643044bab013f0ad24ba9e508a2e426a7f9e93e4d2941edf4b53bbc05cddd3", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42775698.attempt-1.json": "3c02ded05be27703a53a9df4bd1bb018f1bd500c578c3f4baa4ea23721866e43", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42775698.json": "efec7331133bf02de4287d191ebb3fa876634ea60c3eb3fd359c3a3c08627caa", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42786310.attempt-1.json": "8b3842f09af6128c395c9211c1d3adb01bf85f334935bf7c59b3430013a2bcb1", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42786310.json": "57ab361484a79a6356a0f4f1fe97fe4a3adfb5ec7c099e954f4290a19929554c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42805954.attempt-1.json": "b4b5489e1488e857ee85dc2e6846696d3422425b46454440a9dbdeb42c5ea69c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42805954.json": "1b41eb392bcf726e1b5e161e1a7beeb47f08b71029a23289b5c0fb3543b64173", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42810392.attempt-1.json": "7a3f67df633097c44de0f3df45e87384063a1eb4f63f9d2e4731e435dd2714b5", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42810392.attempt-2.json": "3b8e8f9a3d394868e050fe37b0cad375aea2de31d00e9cfff311b36f32584a84", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42810392.json": "40a221d525495ff23aa6c7104d485d7bf59e4738934db1e935640dccba07cb27", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42811497.attempt-1.json": "76659c02c65e8c1fc5f58250ecdeca6f97506730d1b49bc8abc09bbfcb02616f", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42811497.json": "16327af779d64bc8fabace29f4200de0d1760fc7493832e4b38074cf38ce3f5a", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42821663.attempt-1.json": "921d8e90ada281aace5bb6e2a46f517708300c17fc7e9702eca8cdf2269ff276", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42821663.json": "8f3f366dca9fe14489dde378c1cf78818417ebbb3775a2c8883a87a64a232296", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42822442.attempt-1.json": "ad8169d219d83be646b23f713513dad79928ec32d65d21a3257a879eabfd8d76", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42822442.attempt-2.json": "f6d797298340c68f73069cbd8d629f88da39f082fea79e4d8040ef058b3037d2", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42822442.json": "87ce1b5e1e0c609ab83aa7ea44c319ad1325e8bda00603477ce80d7c47b87834", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42826184.attempt-1.json": "b1d8ee7152fb04f8a3e693aab2829e8394f5a3889e240c7da6c734b8cfe39fba", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42826184.attempt-2.json": "dd8b3c0ae37a034ee811006d7e6913d936830cc64193e01599ece28f713c039b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42826184.json": "58c2a28889a8b05e5886e0f35558ee0ae722f94cc62dc59c0fbe0157b85412d2", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42839094.attempt-1.json": "96c2a20db1242ae3294dc2e2a50ace5c580c70c461c881dd46a4bc1e78d22dc2", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42839094.attempt-2.json": "ba8eeb60ef234a828c52ef1e8c1f5ad30697c1a3a4631e336682019cdc5b60d6", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42839094.json": "c80f4eb023aa3458025bdaaad0e3ef397b779b2dcd6308d318df56abfdeb936f", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42841227.attempt-1.json": "7b610ffe435a1e618829e4acc63f996bf19e8c7452dd55e95a41ba42d9446374", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42841227.json": "8566e3eea2fec2e51f18b676018ac8ea06e1ac35b658c3b73e7c9216e2caa8ae", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42842666.attempt-1.json": "8837d50ec6bdf54edb9d31732e282411056889a4f753d247aaf9e3c20a1580a7", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42842666.json": "dc2a23b14dc0ef14ee25d6b4f2258d43d6ee9b4e0e135eb77bac6fe45a716cfc", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42844664.attempt-1.json": "1fa002aacbfde4ee7a6193224a815b159e064fc813b6db48cdbc72852921cbb4", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42844664.json": "be118d6f0931be1f01f5f5ae797282d99122c83aaea1835b80798d88803418bb", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42853938.attempt-1.json": "49eea90be0bae6fc00de07547688eca3660420f16414207b5f94383b2bed6611", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42853938.json": "a534cb1c3f7c63742e8a60591422864d3fbf7d519031d509371cfc594a8e4741", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42858183.attempt-1.json": "87a45934b366b41f2a6d958890fd764fccdd510845aaa4896ba30a4667b45fcb", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42858183.json": "f48cf7193a355766300ccd5988108c6aeeb442744bfa7339543976d8f96e923c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806945.attempt-1.json": "5ba5d8bdf411ca291187adfdc32162c2ef2b04ea28eade13800a618039a5359c", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806945.json": "a018524d2d265c8305c51fc70831b7066f2395fd290738bba755a702ff96e916", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42723144.attempt-1.json": "e96ff902bf0f4fcba9905b55f0fc670021d598da7cc41e15aaa79c521d5aaf92", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42723144.json": "237b9fbfa20530464881d1592b84868711d33c0bfe34f523bb795502f99604e6", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42808804.attempt-1.json": "377c6599096bd82f2e3deb2e520ef4e2f7b974c689b4ab67a2d7d51bc772953a", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42808804.json": "69ef327f60e14caad0e631552c57b4bc0977e4d1cce703839b3e02fab9af594e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42585340.attempt-1.json": "20b63fa66f000ccff6f52f07a1468781f50ec9b3e7f9c12bfa22be5b417f4d6e", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42585340.json": "cd53e8c431ab30870914e9cd5bf2d51427c8ce4b5db65bf549a15be3808ed2ec", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42669067.attempt-1.json": "dd7385db9b9d19e7abddcca47e1f1bcfdbbd04ceb256ff5c1c6fddbb242da835", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42669067.json": "c7187e4c0fa101be1cb36dcddd322b73399824ac1d47892c96e914309b8000a4", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42811065.attempt-1.json": "5815b0ff4f7eba7a2482c685f1c18617eeaa1ffa710e34ff112e15c62e0fd7af", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42811065.json": "e0342c74288829ccc8f5c6bf58093fc1e0e6f40151420600da93e86fdf57417b", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42841610.attempt-1.json": "5c86a7dbab3764588f3b1b4010355f9267e03d289ec90748d52e7d6ee1151d70", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42841610.json": "a6211cf85e210c89444cf5551a4b9cdc4709395ff1fb0581e8573a5610fd5c96", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806003.attempt-1.json": "82f4e42d753a87a47ff114d0ec0b09a0abf9efc878ddcc85373801d1a28b7da0", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806003.json": "86226a9bb1a5368b25418aca4f49b9108d2f52adbb2b535220fd9233bd9c3ee6", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806572.attempt-1.json": "578e027644023af5631eb7d8c2546a61b18e367d4ad5bee3cad4e191d55194f0", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42806572.json": "e9bbdaf9282393232e08f283174ac0bb86ccdd87bc7d29195f7ac68e0b917396", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42748238.attempt-1.json": "579e789b2dbf6a599ebe67baa1e339d8856cd09883994adeb06727a2ad297ba6", "runs/claude-sonnet-5-5/R42748238.json": "9de6cd1b996e9c2babbcd9be7254180669d6f55460760c173620e3b28a5903b8", "runs/gpt-6-astra/config.json": "4eba7dc69feafd5d0971d7aebbbea5d4e7f70e832a093236c2d860abbd5e154f", "runs/gpt-6-astra/requests.json": "ed17cbe83b2b2720cfd9d978456f1159994fe810bc621fe5cfc9421a9ba7c9eb", "runs/gpt-6-astra/isolation-audit.json": "727460520679b6653a2b1a074a7dfcd4e20164a540b09b02c606525433b1011a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/transport-attempts.json": "bf4c996d2a393a319ab7c423748c5eb328444543739f805dfbb4531a2cc6a8c5", "runs/gpt-6-astra/eligibility.json": "ce5598a33dba6fef301da8ebcd2ff1b915d8aef51ef6b128fac29c71b8dc506a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42581103.attempt-1.json": "f665b829d0fba771bf8735b53358f5b65f01228cfd7dc38cafc0596163179a55", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42581103.json": "9f09383edb2e236900b32e15be328d559f53a93f32f46bc7d52c4ad1f9333760", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42601407.attempt-1.json": "1906c3278c637dd8f131663806c543ea8cf2f6491b60cc23261112d477d027a2", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42601407.json": "90db63eafd65871ccc98bd593263ba11fd8a305429a17e5fd2b09e18a6693530", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42605193.attempt-1.json": "f6f517ab011ead548227bf5beb01d13ef4e6900584521cdb74c49d774222f8dd", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42605193.json": "a7b8120a6f441661d6ad742991514bc4e51b1b2979aa869f6738c567ea212403", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42608398.attempt-1.json": "dbc6c5788227d68f259c00e42d4a50c41323f439be7e777729b24566d54bd8c3", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42608398.json": "c136f48acda3ebd9fa08e116402478ac8bad961ecce8ce2dfc0ccfc78c3ce312", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42627902.attempt-1.json": "8d6a8bfba89f93500d333ec5cf2a8283d68802df7aea7c69d98c4f78d44cd35f", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42627902.json": "0f2af731e6f42d07ea7f49aa08f9603985afe5e33dc4ed23ed5170ffbcecbe25", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42630044.attempt-1.json": "ab65842ab1e94497e87223795d3060af891d0a6138dac00f4bb8a04ec990f005", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42630044.json": "17fca28faa8ea02bb8a518438a660999f273cec040340e4c7ddec1d4cd9c174d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42639736.attempt-1.json": "84f64bdeaf42441664435cf5e896583025a8db13f24aa6c42a9f376ca50737a6", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42639736.json": "b312c5e39d61afd0e5111e1105a1d5537417ef9c79a46f65614ae2e0f9688266", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42642518.attempt-1.json": "bc2347481c7f33767b0d58323cc23753f641f86471cffe95b241b55b3fbb2e98", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42642518.json": "aa7b545ab1f9354311367fd3c2255e39541d335f2664b5cce54d3c8d5c432992", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42642521.attempt-1.json": "0c4bc7065e7db1550d2b5d0c10183f83b8ce0083d39e85f18b575eac745ea67e", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42642521.json": "ae7637358df7e4f12a77af19ce519edcfeff3b5a74dda1c6b0c955781f5e44f2", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42647119.attempt-1.json": "6f7c532ec58624664e02e71b2afdc5d1240efa51f2a201d51ee59885c5c3171d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42647119.json": "a9fd72ffa6286e9d010e0ff0be31d0368d4d8a29447443511880285b649a6a89", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42647635.attempt-1.json": "ed1fc0faec6c48e30d05531b1bafcff03d541fd51ee5566c059e6300bc53b267", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42647635.json": "e3dce46ebeb8f60f3a97b0a577fd9b5cb6549400731350d38668b899437f6de5", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42663085.attempt-1.json": "92a9037d546c5ac618d332dcccf6896651d86ca4829d88bdb7192551396b888d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42663085.json": "afec255124290a89964ee01e459ae5bd5ed56a02b0c505136a33951662533ddd", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42664348.attempt-1.json": "29c0e91fa44ca3e91b43c6fa1f85203f7aa66d573fa98682b30bcfa6fd630c43", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42664348.json": "ecc442211f3d3032f8f79e6967dbe4761ec54fc7bc353ea2819039ba3b8ce9d0", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42665751.attempt-1.json": "5d170b6e76c49f039893a03fe7d00fc5d66d3665caec67cf66d7a98c35178fe5", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42665751.json": "0cf8e0ccb1b21c896c8dbb7a1e9abe5b776c6f076a9a83624700e7d824158daf", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42689491.attempt-1.json": "5ddafa55e19a0da597717c6aefd494214f102f6882ee4df45ef3936f2c13ee8a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42689491.json": "b2758942ce5a4686a7e7bddc14c7ededc5a67970bc6c8f14d4ca0ab6a7b4679d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42696595.attempt-1.json": "6604d3dc07851e7c50b607e6f576fabd53ed884c9bf2f1b2b7293125581e3f97", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42696595.json": "ab233b61a59e5990429e308383d091bc09f7afcfe4ce253599783cdcf8842ad7", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42698274.attempt-1.json": "e8187a2d9c7f4d48dc032b6621102d4ab86371080584cf0a2e4cddc38d985c45", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42698274.json": "14200f5ce52a298e190c90cd7903d9b7e28d3f4e4b2326d5b13cf6d6d44486fe", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42717261.attempt-1.json": "97a36d1dc2aa9754ddf0264c993c095a53ebed94c266dabb0b14815277b93945", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42717261.json": "8e557347ee6b2b9b7504e2a4c7a6f8dbbf4611b2e1fcae8242754e0d8b442b2e", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42723546.attempt-1.json": "0dc47d444f0068416c9348cb1949258a90057d5a35f5fca82cdd586ce5e4ffb5", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42723546.json": "c298eb6a2c0e26f979685e21f4320dbd54de9b46b2db76efcac62d9b201f1de7", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42725837.attempt-1.json": "15641e1ded387663e9aebcbc42d5326084967e8f01b69d8d3f048ec145dffb54", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42725837.json": "5397f9b4166f521af0b77ca60eaadccb68904e82fd95d021265730feca61c2b0", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42736449.attempt-1.json": "7eff5befa2d0240f3da79d99b231f7f2ece9bc6751311665563d558523f03f1e", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42736449.json": "99cd3cd81107e4a67f9d0acec34e93f58189eeec158c8661a412e9227b551d0a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42744804.attempt-1.json": "5e6982997cb086caedae3d9d99a946e3525292482569ba2716ef4cc4c9d6ee5d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42744804.json": "44b3bfbc6f60e7f3142a15f4e25683d536dfc354b41783c399d767c7ebaad911", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42749700.attempt-1.json": "44282d7d33d59a57872824d48c9b9dde3b00f8861f9983ca66ac97a08b6494b1", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42749700.json": "a72d366b673e1f0bb1947463c24f743de4982a3509216eaa496717952cc676b9", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42758848.attempt-1.json": "dae7d36d887ac690c51675fbc350ba9a1fb4330b6048760801b3cc21dd120b8b", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42758848.json": "8befe0526daaee54c267b42413358353b22af4e2ca52d351e723e6da8ffc507d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42759510.attempt-1.json": "91ed6f7a51c71ac7f6ce22f978601ec698c919e1348443aa8841c6112a331b5b", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42759510.json": "12bd6634a85cdc8ce7d7619d0b3ccfa952919b8afec066e4114343b91dd7dd8a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42775695.attempt-1.json": "41f830ebaf2d7d03ad64d957e0ef98cef914eba5e9e2bedfefc12412dfccab13", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42775695.json": "5d6ef6fcec0b4874d187a633e0869cd52746fd8b49d497fbc1e50cdd47c657c2", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42775698.attempt-1.json": "8e6cb0cf86d1e6c8d23f623b02c831b096180d8bb1fee1a54cf8927f2203ba1c", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42775698.json": "d776a8a398710ad9d5d6ec925742d6202cc7e26057fed2894542b57e0e793295", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42786310.attempt-1.json": "3598f5664b06403a60d1b50f18efe8289bbb8798044d5c4332f335d04fb4fb23", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42786310.json": "d7a0f8c64999fc8b241ae231e29cc6bc881ae2b3146145f2b4ac5a03ab55a7fe", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42805954.attempt-1.json": "8a934f6d4562fec2e6614055e648939e85c0de0199d337c633f44c287eac346a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42805954.json": "0d060fe49d35d3722cb839ad76821052e167507b31ee758d4d2ccbf168e37567", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42810392.attempt-1.json": "c7766f07daf1cad749639f60396b3542ccd8e468a3d57449a28f16d7d70f8bf1", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42810392.json": "e3eb310b042e899b95fb909bdfa54457774e9af8188f35145756cc82b71f589a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42811497.attempt-1.json": "23be030d78c092e4c8400b257469caa8a610d37c48f7139f3d2b86360ec27149", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42811497.json": "36eda71a85e0e3927900aca415bf3e8c6b177b163ae86c07aff15b305dc19326", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42821663.attempt-1.json": "3922adfcbfe2960dabef2df9be7433d055db063fd4460eb403b962a80696ea38", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42821663.json": "bca6377178935f8cf80cad92064f07f6866bb2db30fc14907c6e1b74357db59f", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42822442.attempt-1.json": "3f6db812048d59d42264f9d148fa377b8716835c2c990589f46cd5db044a4a4f", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42822442.json": "6e2a92849331f61b9bac7ef1c5fc61892c2787378a8d736bc398833e1d3decf2", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42826184.attempt-1.json": "7d9e94937b457d1edc1c6306d2c1433153e489e89b9ee777efe619e85f2050b3", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42826184.json": "4dabecea134a9fb26c939c6308e9cf32c7b09b93ab06e7d2cdc718aa44ac9f6c", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42839094.attempt-1.json": "dacbbf1cd9504a797c6b00fed4a3aa067149bed8d58d0f59e63321d51a31d849", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42839094.json": "f192e8db43161836856e0f8a32ffee2772fd9cbe536484ece2b00cc3f8f41794", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42841227.attempt-1.json": "b65bfb85bbe13bfb20a7790d5a5cf59b459515141434f810c73ed758fb367891", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42841227.json": "243d6f77ab3ed4115be7371e64a409660ce003a528ffe6881a88f5a2fd835c89", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42842666.attempt-1.json": "d0c93b89f9bb9f89d61a9b9044db16f5fb34922e2337052f3518eca63c33fa71", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42842666.json": "53858ba20c0cb1160bcf75cda5b171cb0d6dcb4c28bbe5adebeedfd491a98a07", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42844664.attempt-1.json": "1e2c52a8cc2145057d0a19c7d1b57a42c632f30a4bf5b65a32ae08e439a6a756", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42844664.json": "3130779ea1fc8210dee2cb3a1fe98b52635a236c82309ea2b1edcc9cd579f07c", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42853938.attempt-1.json": "28d7120665c982139ff25ad35d4f69a2de40d7722ceb50985d2cd21aac41ef2d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42853938.json": "36bf970566b5f31dd7d6bac070dbed40229691504306075f535abbe043df98b4", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42858183.attempt-1.json": "c9f919233df451aad57c824d0cd8b464456eb56e2d675d9d87a0c26d28b017a6", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42858183.json": "d1707fc6c610725c2f2c89900656227bbdd14de0479028176f36a58b25a5f21c", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806945.attempt-1.json": "016a1f1062d143273326c90663351e5980a9a1c863d770c29da8889b171436d8", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806945.json": "3880b5212afab2f536bef702438dad991ab0abc0ae2f08202b20bb91e2b5c8f2", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42723144.attempt-1.json": "22e18f47698042ff571bff194d9362bb2489c6902febea8a694d25b0f468ffd5", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42723144.json": "cff31f48ff1f694493d2145b4e4a77ba4b617d631da8dcb6688454c0db0743de", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42808804.attempt-1.json": "a8ea0112293283b319467168e45349d6e2c56e66a8c9ea4fd7eacb5211eee645", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42808804.json": "18bb198b6cc046dcde98639f499723f97f7ca8390622526b5071d1f791c885d0", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42585340.attempt-1.json": "12c634313c69354e3c2f1c40a72d32580e81ac7b66e8d447c46c7d5c8c64052a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42585340.json": "50d4f6b0d6c80a5926cee254dc72d495d2ed4ced5fb31adda6eb7cb7d7203870", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42669067.attempt-1.json": "29cfbd191785074a6d13a92060e1d515fc14a6107d5df4dfcb90d42db3805dbb", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42669067.json": "c3a60b9668452a3c09272108e709fe7f3c919cab939bae0c6741c26d20da8711", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42811065.attempt-1.json": "50bb49c9fbbc70f424f943b7d37465475c9a94acc0828d53b1b8039c1e9f79d9", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42811065.json": "9735b84cd08a6eb9fd32fb6cc4bc538447b13257c0f2037daa912122ba988e5d", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42841610.attempt-1.json": "e4561d53662fec2cc28da3a2a6559f3d17a04302bb28dc07e873991dbb076f93", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42841610.json": "a95f9d121cac1d7cfdf0f6963768dfe8aa8caf4321e3047f4c0151933b20fc84", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806003.attempt-1.json": "bbaed135870df0dcde272bb6191ae5356f7cc39cf0f118b5172ebf7bdb7c9555", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806003.json": "afdd3491254736047d03cab76b05506d7deb325c0464baad84c95307e42cdb56", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806572.attempt-1.json": "14cc768dcefe5c7011e0e9945dda0d8efa75aa0c3251d742d30edfdb5d4978d4", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42806572.json": "5a941bce882af2aac180ec9bef7b3dd845f2feb792c5688970695e09757afd2a", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42748238.attempt-1.json": "84477939818f020999e77275cfd207e6ef8bc39783469c526796621b84c9a012", "runs/gpt-6-astra/R42748238.json": "6c980bcf1603ea0a81d61bd25de67b9c8fe6da32fb139dd79564b0755158ed9e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/config.json": "b00f85d2f280805da24ace7d8a6968867841f3b8a57eb921dd1d906ba38479c0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/requests.json": "92b9a3c64b734942aef806dc1992b4d0b4042a57f274a81c4039f450d64580fd", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/isolation-audit.json": "986a82ee522706a88b8fbf9cd901ee61895ab170fba939be53d1a34f0531ba65", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/transport-attempts.json": "c267fb8d9876ac88777d5bbb52cd6fdfc7dcd2e372736a8f51d47678e189d93a", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/eligibility.json": "e2a63ff1a8f02ceecdda9e66585081ffe6d7f4a68ecd928e452e8e4daf56bd1c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42581103.attempt-1.json": "8803a03049951537163ed56c2557f3f364316bb6251847be9d1f1b0b1002917b", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42581103.json": "0b7e79d88e6f15a875cbc6a1ad8532996b6df80e05f08097f65e1475d8ab368e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42601407.attempt-1.json": "616f8b3b344bd835edfecec9251ba02f92a9dbc5eed663e849e0031b3fb44397", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42601407.json": "a9e4498fd11824731796abf88f5f7ab54fa6db062b7d1b6ee22b6dc81998745f", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42605193.attempt-1.json": "7d3f2132323a5ece6d3b06a2eddf062f30091c1642542604ec22a00a6e058993", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42605193.json": "42087963c3cec53f9c4e44721691c3b75b34a34c793a8ca1bea88d07d96f9360", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42608398.attempt-1.json": "051e17d328b8bd7c553f513d4daa713b07da34a20373fc6ec033b681904bca81", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42608398.json": "2b8cfb1574c1d42c1e2a96e16782e1eff962df4303da57c0d2b46a22bf4ceef0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42627902.attempt-1.json": "eb993898a9e3cd12286bfe074fb5edb1730faaee2835f51ffa0e87c7cc07ccae", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42627902.json": "3d5754187ae669214e58209993ddcfe73abd8736a9a84c2129a44c552ac3ed7c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42630044.attempt-1.json": "91761b22e7b82e5a476c4119728e932c61042ebd6450c79d41462fc30a17a0d4", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42630044.json": "60258de9d5ebc6481f271662f32d6866b0d7aab938abc7ffe2b838237f453ab0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42639736.attempt-1.json": "5c340d276c8ca22f5a743daaeefbc83e02bc65ce6a2daa3e7a75e01a5deed339", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42639736.json": "29609c178417d1da0530686fe085e032a92380c36612f05e3d9723927eede4cc", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42642518.attempt-1.json": "39b95bd843c5138919d0ee5210cc73f99d98b967a5fd419a744ddf6326ab600b", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42642518.json": "f905975913b2c663adb618d4796d982aa6d8f2f3087ebd94c761aae0f6cf882d", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42642521.attempt-1.json": "0f8bd2a46a7379844b70febc83feb3a13fc2d69655e4023fb4a2eeb00b9061cb", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42642521.json": "d80370bdb2c94acf485c25948c7ad95eccff169c6264f111acf38fb460701adc", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42647119.attempt-1.json": "bafa65192662d83f264e49524b01d52ee896ab3777b80a78e51dac24f0cbdecf", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42647119.json": "d3ff6fc4b343895d4130e2a1893739f4e8c5967ff688180cd6678ef38bdf62f1", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42647635.attempt-1.json": "22befdfadde367f47d3612cfdad8b5e6784d1f3e1aa57b19a8fc357c36f706fb", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42647635.json": "67ff4d4b77fba947ecc18950b103d37305629277413cc73e93c74a4064bfe8ca", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42663085.attempt-1.json": "52400741c042d2f1bd0f4e60f050ef64c4271f265d355a8dc0db2137e402887c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42663085.json": "b6a131f638d910e6d6f504b3309a0ae62cd2d24f287713ed3878b6370d5028d5", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42664348.attempt-1.json": "148bed2a34a40163c7a1e97699f2c6668e34c761e2d40d0880547a52c9ccb7f2", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42664348.json": "4305293c5df67a7f615c9b7a94f6ce0a9b6a189bbc1dacd40b22e59ff8b0b6f1", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42665751.attempt-1.json": "6db160f50497b2111ae1dbfb310fa75c8fd2ecc1abff064254bd8aa5f8d606bc", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42665751.json": "f5ffaa62a311546f85a47b3bec01b624fef2d40b5897bae6c9f960e4af444f77", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42689491.attempt-1.json": "bace33586cbdb45a92060ac694e69043fad0bbcb649965f26e906babef20de3e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42689491.json": "f9b9d19343b00263e110880e493760d1ef6c302b8968bdd836142727c0a1420e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42696595.attempt-1.json": "6c1f28ef6c895f239279a034ad2ef564fbae19c415084b19510c31fde9397b8e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42696595.json": "970070a27d0403f522e854e0f6c18036bf20d60d7748c2136bf5bccb4c3d9cf6", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42698274.attempt-1.json": "29f90c2a9faaf3b5c5333c10dd9aedadea55009af1b28bb5c3d2ce72a27c4897", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42698274.json": "1a0deb5678c5c50645374d24dbde60cef2a14c41fda5627ae4d1c6e2ea0cb27f", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42717261.attempt-1.json": "eef3bb7c36929674fd008bf663ea3833168624464bd0b7f1194fcd263187ab8c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42717261.json": "34fcda4573b103bd13b19cc4d5932732a0416e89e35b5a2ad3539420bc9e7d82", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42723546.attempt-1.json": "95edaf2a036a5621e9a3feb1898df58c0ff6eb196e30c638463df3193629ba91", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42723546.json": "f90ee98bc200b09b19864b72ea2cb4f6b1a9285ef5d0bf63f584746316c88320", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42725837.attempt-1.json": "3a014ca3920709753db2610add3c63a6cde0ad954fc0e8d516a9fcf36ca0a4ef", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42725837.json": "283ce7a1431625aeb968f2937aa9e3e5eecf31168386d9e8a434d82e9e1695e6", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42736449.attempt-1.json": "b15dac6604faf7bb904d797153ae0524dafe760f0617d074eb30df4b45ae3714", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42736449.json": "760ba22916a2e44c00195d52495dac3f7dcec3b8b7b7d9bbe4668c07f21142d4", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42744804.attempt-1.json": "ac0c64e7660f1e5be819c9c55b76c3e9aacebe421f4a87c67785c310f2271d19", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42744804.json": "b030568e872afdec173679d57e86757f0282ab4446a1debd041ccf295ff53b8d", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42749700.attempt-1.json": "13b5c937f999efa7e8279851d62692059af12778ef91436ec2c558838748a51a", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42749700.json": "c2837d2b3da6dd21904dd40fa2222dc563349eba28286c7677a58f24d78885b4", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42758848.attempt-1.json": "b697443c6b4cad0cddd25becae01fbf906d25b2e9313313c4e1f50bc95ccd7ac", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42758848.json": "aaae107a6472ea216d715c24f5e6b84a6117432b391dcde998123afbf019ee79", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42759510.attempt-1.json": "a26716ebca9c6ddd53dd14be2b4aac43627e318077e8d8d6d2f22665b4ee16a0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42759510.json": "c35b183cbcf706c2d4bb0d255705bb6b068d5fb7b39898b68c49eda9bb427f58", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42775695.attempt-1.json": "811bc709a4d52db389d3d047042dadb01822597cec3900574d2fc6edd5bceaa5", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42775695.json": "ba5299060ddcc279feea5752ee4580970680b0478db608cfec41b0f171690e15", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42775698.attempt-1.json": "b0d1d29242e2196d9031f6559b58065b0e7e146ce658e3516992e784eead2b03", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42775698.json": "b24967e42ad74cc82c627f6e6b4ebcfcb1b7dc21c17f8801977bc5df299b7baa", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42786310.attempt-1.json": "d4761bfcbc2873d760a79b030cccbc6a39e0aa4d1902e469fe569a9ee39371ac", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42786310.json": "3be314022733abba5d0c22bf68133ec86107e362371fe864b53507c234cd0446", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42805954.attempt-1.json": "2ceba0834cb42d8cf78c6a9b0a9367c54291d0359bdd5926e6a941a6328485f2", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42805954.json": "96594adaf4c85c4642ca46d484a598b27fd02e9e6c6d2e598b1f50e68fa1b69d", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42810392.attempt-1.json": "ffdf5aea7478f96f66ed4beecb8644143a132754cff4f7d65541a2eb96751472", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42810392.json": "3ee1fb655b5068172cd6a7efd78983a9a01262426059aff859f084e6efb8555c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42811497.attempt-1.json": "c7d49b216ff913aebea5f798dd21ff2216bdb70cb347968ae625dac0a47dd30f", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42811497.json": "bf864c8942c0240515578d9a9b1a6e41f6d3a0f2838b6a80d50854eda52f5de0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42821663.attempt-1.json": "e7864a880b41f029cdb2e348ac5bbdfc2d79c71be626b550211d26784fba1fd3", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42821663.json": "95f36603cb4163d6b58dc47b6bcbe36db93aebf42a289c30c7273d74f293b283", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42822442.attempt-1.json": "a3944d2155293593e32cf6e3120091f00aac97342f9967ff303cec003456f934", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42822442.json": "637aa421f43507b3045058f769e26db92f530e3f23c9d0db50721024950117b8", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42826184.attempt-1.json": "9a32401175f47b74ed6c7eca218db02fcedf5f90d201ddc07b5cfa8f44bcb4a2", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42826184.json": "0c7ab6e0b1bec4a79c49ed85a225f7ab7e63446881a67e4a8b5adb98aec22e85", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42839094.attempt-1.json": "876e118b7e3b8838c0567eb452593d66e38f7e39f56abf8cc0af4ec17b2dcae7", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42839094.json": "5fba2f864e0952142d74272e988bd5137db6634f21c4f8e9ed5370eb932c76d8", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42841227.attempt-1.json": "deaff1c636494dc65c8809c9ee1aa916662fae6dae9941fd7a0cbb0663e02ed7", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42841227.json": "9f5974b702ca3034db10d5f0d45ad4432f9208e883f86d84038355006139429c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42842666.attempt-1.json": "a63325d1661b070c46e3f4142ddc00d6f884bd2dcd8df96a98683e65ffc7206f", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42842666.json": "a903b2c68f588cc17a26177727fdf406778b8e1476fd3c00b0a890c9c8ba7f0b", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42844664.attempt-1.json": "3f3b9fd0130af2273747afad70f92f52bb83163e861821631cd2ce0aae625b98", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42844664.json": "e44a0fb7ce07f76fc1a56cda78ac6a6f14ba0a8e0ba681203968dc3a5ecebb2c", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42853938.attempt-1.json": "7cf591cf853bdd86ae023bb7bc1ded991726c69b3389d941313e097be952aed9", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42853938.json": "e73e14782937d8d7e90115d2525e2bde9d7a8bc24f4100b15aabed43d54a6d15", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42858183.attempt-1.json": "3c8e94cf1104dc1a95aec99979b3dea88bb68004194acd74995d3d06da2d4b67", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42858183.json": "c6e3f351ec45f17ce433899f34b5f945578829078aa39200ce8992720df948a9", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806945.attempt-1.json": "97fceb73347932aea92eb1a2ff98adf1a1dfabb1e502704bf8bb30a680fec616", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806945.json": "c202ef1f9a80858b29b04e6a20df44bb48dd73b6bf6581e1496e0506c535f890", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42723144.attempt-1.json": "ebc184a2f27c8ba300d724f585d950d25adc9ead61ede68b1bc72e87b36ac08b", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42723144.json": "9ce7cd902b6dfdd9e0178bb682f865de9e59d77b768db4ab375db362dd040198", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42808804.attempt-1.json": "287e2b3a91186a396c3591a7357a9d19c22025130c701569de43af2064481d1e", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42808804.json": "02d2db6812218c161aae53200e6a8974062a5b8fb56b57694be09d1c7ee372b0", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42585340.attempt-1.json": "89cd173577d923abd35c9f91e85a54251fe1bc6550ac85873da0729bf81176c2", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42585340.json": "ce7b8c295275e5df5ff18dbe678f3b124ac9c246182c33bce021f70c0cb5b0fd", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42669067.attempt-1.json": "4231373d57f3e46dc6d5d3ee7e928df6965d7f24726ab9e748aa374d97490560", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42669067.json": "36774341c18742b333b3846abcfc20818b2c7509c3ea1ae010ff71f9e293cf89", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42811065.attempt-1.json": "3108e0bd40faad6975af8818985db611ced8f7411cccd58b1d422576badca7dd", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42811065.json": "e6f37df8f1a8d35399be83c3b5dac89dbddf07dc47cc05ec8279604f3e1ead57", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42841610.attempt-1.json": "489fe2dbcb280e3ac87eff7d2d54ff545ac720c8e5c56e0ba8806b3225211115", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42841610.json": "12217cfda6e882a3ea8dd5bcdd4ee3b645861aee8d4bae8ba671f96942d22144", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806003.attempt-1.json": "df2831d3cf9427f8155015d10b60d4ad5dff182ad4b8c308f35720a99ec79287", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806003.json": "2ad94c40adaaaa53dbf1facbc898ffd44a2939b34143af063c15f18719c9f376", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806572.attempt-1.json": "d8e8f93b5a86e5aa184434c3b9b82bed02b1b049e8166f5cb094167908cbb954", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42806572.json": "fa5c65b514142b0ec2c16a3c183371c17d3d8c1918e00b8300b6387e1f785c84", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42748238.attempt-1.json": "385e9a485c482ae56ebe1a6b430185d2d0d0bf86ded30f96d622785e2171ab59", "runs/gemini-4-argon-high/R42748238.json": "88741406cdd7e71ab1fc303c11df5c62bea1c3e6e011c3001d0bf45727bafc42", "runs/grok-4.5/config.json": "28a422eda2dc3a67f8e28fb8e2b4b78866f47632f97b7135e00e180b6c10b1dd", "runs/grok-4.5/requests.json": "3267f2733d35a4ecf78d67f41a5fb54f05dfcc407c352894c20d346926130c84", "runs/grok-4.5/isolation-audit.json": "361faeac0c4bc12bbd558126716f16ed928668126b15af523d13ad65fad9f7bb", "runs/grok-4.5/transport-attempts.json": "f0d8c6f02d23de39e058e350a66af021b780d8ebee400ec389153dbcca3acd8a", "runs/grok-4.5/eligibility.json": "83f0a80aaf24f14092a0e81823d4b6bce05dd1aaf0eabb67255276e9581cc923", "runs/grok-4.5/R42581103.attempt-1.json": "f498009ff2e45dec21db1f44a50ea62f4c1c085d91ecff4db023aa896a894569", "runs/grok-4.5/R42581103.json": "4b767b0acca16f342faae760f5a31e32c1c5c39fbf64241ef1af01fd485f9c71", "runs/grok-4.5/R42601407.attempt-1.json": "ef9f1abf465d9efad8b77d2ce049b508de5f4fbd2d247ae75c95d0bd8a19f78e", "runs/grok-4.5/R42601407.json": "c282ddfb79dcedbea7e3ba62cbae9d0b47b2b091add53a51b5967b722a8c77b3", "runs/grok-4.5/R42605193.attempt-1.json": "254a2c7577759439860ddc8ce890e4f403ea91eeec2827807dbf840b69c4111e", "runs/grok-4.5/R42605193.json": "6bfdad6225fc46305b2ba497fa1844238e5ec69945715d39b2a56672266ca002", "runs/grok-4.5/R42608398.attempt-1.json": "a7357d54d6a919964533ad6e2b3896cb08c9da3dad66e176191dd7bbb8941cae", "runs/grok-4.5/R42608398.json": "0f5f0b5404edbcaa93b6c0967141e7e15accc02b395b61dcae2e22f1d4dc512d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42627902.attempt-1.json": "5ef7d6ca59640d5a8bb1f71e02b78a2f619706c4f2f7c939cbe64696e2fbd1ba", "runs/grok-4.5/R42627902.json": "5bdc3a0801b8cb3a82715ace7799c7bb81048cac5b9ba3152411a7cb986a1906", "runs/grok-4.5/R42630044.attempt-1.json": "2a938b64ca7a3634d094d695e66ab8d6a0e697563f7507b603c6fb0126e761fa", "runs/grok-4.5/R42630044.json": "3581fc2150088e1b99be6e6b0b41aa360cc74da4146dd74c7c8438987fb811e8", "runs/grok-4.5/R42639736.attempt-1.json": "9ad43b39b9f34cad4e6d090d25d835e742968bb782ac678ab09cf8baacdb1625", "runs/grok-4.5/R42639736.json": "225c6e616085656863ad36f5679154c9c418ac81bbc9a83d9eeeae66983a5d65", "runs/grok-4.5/R42642518.attempt-1.json": "68f8a1865b8df67c5ac4f3ce3e8552ee238d8f2c9b5571ab21db7cdd40f88f48", "runs/grok-4.5/R42642518.json": "1094f29ae4e01572ef35004f72a6a3b7d19b3c535614e80ebf60bf9c65a454ec", "runs/grok-4.5/R42642521.attempt-1.json": "e7c2fd54240800b26f4c63ffc8c862e687417ffeee0c30afdd1f68499b3c044a", "runs/grok-4.5/R42642521.json": "a3023a13e10a8722f3e6b76e36f95d0c3a093beb01c4360e7ad5f79b9f4cb8fc", "runs/grok-4.5/R42647119.attempt-1.json": "a53ff1df676094fff801c14bebe10ad8107fd68b4a76e5fb2d22aed01ea0b671", "runs/grok-4.5/R42647119.json": "855e42db8215d0732d63ace07285d68b39ebc5d3aee316cfc395ad0a1b721c3c", "runs/grok-4.5/R42647635.attempt-1.json": "0517589f25df0fdaac58ca5548fdd92f639ca7cbc64affd50e19616dfa3d9852", "runs/grok-4.5/R42647635.json": "7571bc70ebd9a76877aa70c72ebba2dd6b5eb8178682ef3dcb1f06d45ea0494a", "runs/grok-4.5/R42663085.attempt-1.json": "15b98e9634a0287919bdd0ac72c1f220cc2114b227a100fa52fef926b222a1a3", "runs/grok-4.5/R42663085.json": "192b7ff95881cf06cf2a2867d8f7a99e6f690bfb381353426ff959d300a3b486", "runs/grok-4.5/R42664348.attempt-1.json": "8ae607fcabd2a57498c6ecae5c9a84ccf3e96e51c8514d8e74d7829bb154ddcf", "runs/grok-4.5/R42664348.json": "7b60accc0df5151bd8c614ca0af388e93d3dabec30baa034c981233aa41b26c5", "runs/grok-4.5/R42665751.attempt-1.json": "417e1615462f24caa29e1949d640baeba1e447f0bdd8e6e1b34a75d5633ddcf9", "runs/grok-4.5/R42665751.json": "b2813a77ef955d0340d0bdab42de099647005f695ea613f91b77ef22bf48228a", "runs/grok-4.5/R42689491.attempt-1.json": "b9a92c5f5bb67e9917f9f9de0442d723274c265029ca899a46d837c26e87433b", "runs/grok-4.5/R42689491.json": "838aed8e23d267a21a222e7895c1370f2539b5fc3d8244b753eaaeeca98c8ded", "runs/grok-4.5/R42696595.attempt-1.json": "6b13aef8030038a9e3012cd3669a02c9f25fa878f098d22278bb184ea3cfe89a", "runs/grok-4.5/R42696595.json": "94b687d5ee450fd84ee7b8c09030b29c6824d58e3a3b4e58de14e90cb73bba9d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42698274.attempt-1.json": "613f3a0c6d5723387d442ed88548bfa11c3f4e5efdb3c055ba8a650d7c8c24a1", "runs/grok-4.5/R42698274.json": "9f6276ab1b0f03d7628ae5dbb04f1145fb63e9bc34241f8dab9074510c8438e2", "runs/grok-4.5/R42717261.attempt-1.json": "3715851adcb7019c5f399d981251ee12aa0d1b66fad60c8164bde32bc6d2f90c", "runs/grok-4.5/R42717261.json": "43dc43f02cf8c9e0f0a26968653392b1c0f2d5f83eefb7492e60b750d8068c65", "runs/grok-4.5/R42723546.attempt-1.json": "31e0e6968fec3e77a9c7bde05bb86f51c9c8e64acd0631c480b2d478b960d649", "runs/grok-4.5/R42723546.json": "8fe333b6a05ab62058d8f3fbef39a55c6d98f00708418c42aa8effd8356bac3d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42725837.attempt-1.json": "95b08182e2eec1ace94fe37a8360abe6cef679be4a9f09eb2271b2f5e4c90c76", "runs/grok-4.5/R42725837.attempt-2.json": "f2a41783d14641babfe443bbd541f66707969f430b06586441ef40fbb191df2c", "runs/grok-4.5/R42725837.json": "977e216161200c62ed285edf9d1ed4d9c1e9da4e30762cdddb245e418e7c8b74", "runs/grok-4.5/R42736449.attempt-1.json": "5de6eb2c2b9fcb8e603d6cc3ac13d5ddf24af848ba9569fd745b23cedfb3a298", "runs/grok-4.5/R42736449.json": "74314880df336471d99bd020d43d5c0639b7d49c37ad094f70d80fc2a4801dfb", "runs/grok-4.5/R42744804.attempt-1.json": "f5a3d7bb5b530fdb97da0e0fcf77b66d4baed7fe05e50d96c369cd786e0e9d5b", "runs/grok-4.5/R42744804.json": "7cd2d28d069c403c43e381768a5242fcb819e0b35a09cba65849adc3b1c3bb84", "runs/grok-4.5/R42749700.attempt-1.json": "e7bb4d105aa19dc172f9552c823584581d15bf3674b86c6d903aecd37a80d724", "runs/grok-4.5/R42749700.json": "7f7c56d387e56ebd1acd2b464f7c8c34902c507659a4d9279abf32af0425ebeb", "runs/grok-4.5/R42758848.attempt-1.json": "69c8e22d0a6363caba1510704f9c30fc1ef0e9ac93032580a5303c88ad5899aa", "runs/grok-4.5/R42758848.json": "f49c151841c75795709c02558383fffe7434a5de5979dd0a776cda47a1f7465d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42759510.attempt-1.json": "2d7b40c3685d0ee0380e67c10b68bbd1dca62bb8b9be6ac0f4e946f1391a768f", "runs/grok-4.5/R42759510.json": "ec2ba959c296e0b9bbb788283599e653124ba8c9d9c9cc7f075bea97531cabfc", "runs/grok-4.5/R42775695.attempt-1.json": "fefac3b328a24480461cb6f1b50486569255c12d78c32455d3479f1755347d1f", "runs/grok-4.5/R42775695.json": "99e182ef50a305097f31c22b60b12366e24cdb23c908ab7513f91def0a5ff82d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42775698.attempt-1.json": "27a0660852a89cd86cacb95c35e875b5e4b212824515ca5041d87bde7dbdee63", "runs/grok-4.5/R42775698.json": "16e8f13a6becead3dc07fefcfd824061bdb2f60d67f29e1239d811a6faf060e6", "runs/grok-4.5/R42786310.attempt-1.json": "5e8e2af5857028489a301e1edfae78ac48bcd2996e1511dcb3a33e8a65c6bf42", "runs/grok-4.5/R42786310.json": "ded852dad2f7a8c41784a4761d3d5e965ceb2cca91f9f111dc1d32215e96784e", "runs/grok-4.5/R42805954.attempt-1.json": "fbef2a5b4370d9938332328cead18d3632d3e4292af8333d4ba00ec7a6db9f53", "runs/grok-4.5/R42805954.json": "8fc92263459337fcbbe6cbccffbd94e5cf44a1265589393c09124f96480f6273", "runs/grok-4.5/R42810392.attempt-1.json": "ef4b593a5c42f09f3b4c795f8bac86b1a9f85b681050e05021c0142b413cdcfc", "runs/grok-4.5/R42810392.json": "d60da5ce8569f2058b7147834fd93ff10d12036aa8fb91750bfafee50e04a38b", "runs/grok-4.5/R42811497.attempt-1.json": "903f7c627650225d22bb7a13e1932556c9699db69a0be2659b2247939aebece7", "runs/grok-4.5/R42811497.json": "e4b72e068b36490fe3d124c29d8120f974f4244a5aa6ebf3a8f3d61b1df9c157", "runs/grok-4.5/R42821663.attempt-1.json": "cb5bc6c5ba75fb4fca2465785a5a0c643d4be4f9c06c71799540b9db1e906cd4", "runs/grok-4.5/R42821663.json": "09f99b638ba2095221dc6494f7c1b23239e0b3905dabfe883f70f95787ee5628", "runs/grok-4.5/R42822442.attempt-1.json": "510186c1cd26badd20e3fd5e2f9825f68fc907e319d3b18f1ecb578001e8fade", "runs/grok-4.5/R42822442.json": "452c21ac63aa68deca9d7d4e56b65fb43dad35ae55b47553e5c54f4e31969093", "runs/grok-4.5/R42826184.attempt-1.json": "19596becd65d7ebe2765d000581b8fc580165b008232117fb490f55aa603e264", "runs/grok-4.5/R42826184.json": "cf343866465b81dc0a6907392381863e4fa6543c3e63017e6697a94e82974dd7", "runs/grok-4.5/R42839094.attempt-1.json": "a97a9a170026b98f60d7186e9af6c15ad9b8625f013fb5cbdf3909426c30a45f", "runs/grok-4.5/R42839094.json": "efbf0292c1c069bc54746883ca12c09298685445eb69f12c3dfebc7a1812c73d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42841227.attempt-1.json": "1acaab9041f58355262e880717076b5dab167e7ef595ce11a09b873ed1311f33", "runs/grok-4.5/R42841227.json": "185b0376bd1b19719e72fcc1359d717a88a4ad927337923fa5998a683aa8861d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42842666.attempt-1.json": "ffcec9b41f39e172ca7faafff47fdcab21bb8dd3e9e9232b1a6d9f02283e483e", "runs/grok-4.5/R42842666.json": "975b1eac0ea012dcde7d694bc69a2479f2cecbb495e47f17d8d13ee01fd990b4", "runs/grok-4.5/R42844664.attempt-1.json": "3e7fd3093f62dde7704770434f7a24f03936dbd13e1ae456850a96bae9b173a7", "runs/grok-4.5/R42844664.json": "ba52e178d52104b9d8b5a52d8cb155d2d4db5519bf6aab73a3d501660dfa4a4b", "runs/grok-4.5/R42853938.attempt-1.json": "6fa2f1708685144a2c9457cad2c6dbfe5a49aba495cb011ad90ef071ae04495d", "runs/grok-4.5/R42853938.json": "07869c6883b4309cb08cad8587cc9d0ee0ef2c026f47509b9883fe3d73824ee8", "runs/grok-4.5/R42858183.attempt-1.json": "aa32652e65d0ff4bef963ebeb5513ae856d9c49ac6e126ad03b413211e611ee2", "runs/grok-4.5/R42858183.json": "6bfc7e28a5ff0a510f1c78f845bcc8d2af2dd10978d151d71f5c3187e2762244", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806945.attempt-1.json": "b0a34a5a6895777d7de2713cf252ddb162af29ff71fa56ee1a0388a69a896ed6", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806945.json": "95033a3576a9f302a392dd0572d6b0227f9b48dfad40e8a9f2f6ed4f00980734", "runs/grok-4.5/R42723144.attempt-1.json": "4cbb9494b498169c95a85910e7e3e56311fc5cc716d90fa1c9afd808a3526624", "runs/grok-4.5/R42723144.json": "3ddd6e9e72eac9ccdeee68dbe691d467ecb86164112ca3ccdfef2e11f4f23954", "runs/grok-4.5/R42808804.attempt-1.json": "9de613465936d242f5776355fe3bbf80ede6a7fb9b8e25960f4b6c099d0ddbcd", "runs/grok-4.5/R42808804.json": "a1f1ffae1b96943b9ce625533df8d08e12ec3870d580f7ac98c675c7c603687f", "runs/grok-4.5/R42585340.attempt-1.json": "b5add6e2ec022d3fdedf0fd53ce238b2466674a07f74ff8f52cd8973d0334c50", "runs/grok-4.5/R42585340.json": "459d779954adbd4af22460a5e4fcab0cd656324c65887f7a8b8a5105c204f5c5", "runs/grok-4.5/R42669067.attempt-1.json": "08ac169e20169bd960d0cdb98a8fcc7533c0ed985f8350d58bad672491e11221", "runs/grok-4.5/R42669067.json": "a08d3ffc805cd248da35b5677b8c316d8c4a0f4e21effd0d80d402dbc76e339a", "runs/grok-4.5/R42811065.attempt-1.json": "a96137b702d2025c10656be2bcdce29e04de59d5a3bdcf85ec89269c019447d9", "runs/grok-4.5/R42811065.json": "0e06cfc59b13e5d11e2b9b3dd66a0d0c5b224bed942e41ac49e0559ee04ec846", "runs/grok-4.5/R42841610.attempt-1.json": "613e2c93a6d8d12b656e84c7eae2ad7488e7effecee117074bf23d2f04e0e98b", "runs/grok-4.5/R42841610.json": "d30dc2b48d31c5b05c9e7e72fc434b773613799faf9484b93bc4feb594aa0000", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806003.attempt-1.json": "2dde411d24d574a4b5e178c9ee69a039080c69597aa1419a26de44fb99590938", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806003.json": "956bb797e9e6908809972b31a433d3656c5639686ad263789f739c1e2e3c829e", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806572.attempt-1.json": "9d5e8da6a127093aaaf4f634cbe27f75d37830df16d2b5473d3951eb6da49487", "runs/grok-4.5/R42806572.json": "a0ce5dfd1fab94884ac34795f95c0148056bc4429cdd17d92bcd8646e89cdc25", "runs/grok-4.5/R42748238.attempt-1.json": "de241f3816cd4d7f35a8c105761fded6bc9eee4c981d54496350e7cd74cd0643", "runs/grok-4.5/R42748238.json": "c0539e66b20f3051694820325a9006471d56f33f617c8bd8b10b0ce7328d9274" }, "panels": { "core": { "models": [ { "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "label": "Sonnet 5.5", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 60, "transportAttemptCount": 60, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": true, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": false, "R42639736|H2": true, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": false, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": true, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": false, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": false, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": true, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": true, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": false, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": true, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": false, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [ "R42608398|H1", "R42608398|H2", "R42608398|H3", "R42608398|H4", "R42608398|H5", "R42647119|H1", "R42647119|H2", "R42647119|H3", "R42647119|H4", "R42647119|H5", "R42664348|H1", "R42664348|H2", "R42664348|H3", "R42664348|H4", "R42664348|H5", "R42723546|H1", "R42723546|H2", "R42723546|H3", "R42723546|H4", "R42723546|H5", "R42725837|H1", "R42725837|H2", "R42725837|H3", "R42725837|H4", "R42725837|H5", "R42759510|H1", "R42759510|H2", "R42759510|H3", "R42759510|H4", "R42759510|H5", "R42810392|H1", "R42810392|H2", "R42810392|H3", "R42810392|H4", "R42810392|H5", "R42822442|H1", "R42822442|H2", "R42822442|H3", "R42822442|H4", "R42822442|H5", "R42826184|H1", "R42826184|H2", "R42826184|H3", "R42826184|H4", "R42826184|H5", "R42839094|H1", "R42839094|H2", "R42839094|H3", "R42839094|H4", "R42839094|H5" ], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": true, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": false, "R42639736|H2": true, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": false, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": true, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": false, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": true, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": false, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": true, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": true, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": true, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": false, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": true, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": false, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 19, "known": 45, "missed": 26, "counts": { "yes_true": 19, "yes_false": 31, "no_true": 26, "no_false": 174 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.38, "npv": 0.87, "sens": 0.4222222222222222, "spec": 0.848780487804878, "youden": 0.2710027100271002, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6355013550135501 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2119327731092437, "npv": 0.06083969465648853, "sens": -0.0222222222222222, "spec": 0.3317073170731707, "youden": 0.30948509485094844, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15474254742547422 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.24528301886792453, "hi": 0.5098039215686274, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.10263381622417826, "hi": 0.3229179453082378, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8247422680412371, "hi": 0.9137055837563451, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.011794374145312111, "hi": 0.10928519786169986, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.30952380952380953, "hi": 0.5416666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.16666666666666663, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8202764976958525, "hi": 0.8792270531400966, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.26388888888888895, "hi": 0.4, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13818575251201393, "hi": 0.408119658119658, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.11470771490199931, "hi": 0.5140419769803655, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.732, "hi": 0.812, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.34, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5690928762560069, "hi": 0.704059829059829, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.057353857450999655, "hi": 0.25702098849018273, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gpt-6-astra", "label": "GPT-6 Astra", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 50, "transportAttemptCount": 56, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": true, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": false, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": false, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": false, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": false, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": true, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": false, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": true, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": false, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": false, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": false, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": false, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": true, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": false, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 21, "known": 45, "missed": 24, "counts": { "yes_true": 21, "yes_false": 28, "no_true": 24, "no_false": 177 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.42857142857142855, "npv": 0.8805970149253731, "sens": 0.4666666666666667, "spec": 0.8634146341463415, "youden": 0.3300813008130081, "accuracy": 0.792, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6650406504065041 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.26050420168067223, "npv": 0.07143670958186166, "sens": 0.022222222222222254, "spec": 0.3463414634146341, "youden": 0.3685636856368564, "accuracy": 0.28800000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1842818428184282 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.28, "hi": 0.5777777777777777, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.12035576382279135, "hi": 0.4056660370283902, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8324607329842932, "hi": 0.9253731343283582, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.015984817329311115, "hi": 0.12609238289143876, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 0.6, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.18185606060606063, "hi": 0.2432432432432432, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8181818181818182, "hi": 0.905, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2639576283135927, "hi": 0.424390243902439, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.17442926346954793, "hi": 0.4877345839671818, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13475314051831647, "hi": 0.609228729105148, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.844, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.20399999999999996, "hi": 0.36800000000000005, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.587214631734774, "hi": 0.7438672919835909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06737657025915823, "hi": 0.304614364552574, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gemini-4-argon-high", "label": "Gemini 4 Argon High", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 50, "transportAttemptCount": 55, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": true, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": false, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": true, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": true, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": false, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": true, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": true, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": false, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": true, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": false, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": true, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": true, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": false, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": true, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": true, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": false, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gemini-4-argon-medium" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 22, "known": 45, "missed": 23, "counts": { "yes_true": 22, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 23, "no_false": 171 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.39285714285714285, "npv": 0.8814432989690721, "sens": 0.4888888888888889, "spec": 0.8341463414634146, "youden": 0.3230352303523034, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6615176151761517 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.22478991596638653, "npv": 0.07228299362556068, "sens": 0.04444444444444445, "spec": 0.31707317073170727, "youden": 0.36151761517615166, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18075880758807583 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.26153846153846155, "hi": 0.5294117647058824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.1038799638077353, "hi": 0.35585291813552683, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8358060549525101, "hi": 0.9238578680203046, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01735558701648793, "hi": 0.1267302339475589, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.37142857142857144, "hi": 0.6097560975609756, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.139546511627907, "hi": 0.23809523809523814, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7821782178217822, "hi": 0.8793969849246231, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.23222748815165872, "hi": 0.3969091591980521, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1760796523821635, "hi": 0.46800529567519855, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13943769905994813, "hi": 0.5928646309269977, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.716, "hi": 0.824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.17999999999999994, "hi": 0.35200000000000004, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5880398261910817, "hi": 0.7340026478375993, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06971884952997406, "hi": 0.29643231546349885, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "grok-4.5", "label": "Grok 4.5", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 51, "transportAttemptCount": 53, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": true, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": true, "R42581103|H4": false, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": true, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": true, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": true, "R42639736|H5": true, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": true, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": true, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": true, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": true, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": true, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": true, "R42664348|H2": true, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": true, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": true, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": true, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": true, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": true, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": true, "R42749700|H4": true, "R42749700|H5": true, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": true, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": true, "R42775698|H1": true, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": true, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": true, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": true, "R42810392|H3": true, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": true, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": false, "R42811497|H5": true, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": true, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": true, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": true, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": true, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": true, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": true, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": true, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": true, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": true, "R42806945|H5": true, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": true, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": true, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": true, "R42669067|H2": true, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": true, "R42811065|H3": true, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": true, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": true, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": true, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": true, "R42581103|H4": false, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": true, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": true, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": true, "R42639736|H5": true, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": true, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": true, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": true, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": true, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": true, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": true, "R42664348|H2": true, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": true, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": true, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": true, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": true, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": true, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": true, "R42749700|H4": true, "R42749700|H5": true, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": true, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": true, "R42775698|H1": true, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": true, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": true, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": true, "R42810392|H3": true, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": true, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": false, "R42811497|H5": true, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": true, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": true, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": true, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": true, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": true, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": true, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": true, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": true, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": true, "R42806945|H5": true, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": true, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": true, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": true, "R42669067|H2": true, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": true, "R42811065|H3": true, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": true, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": true, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "grok-4.7" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 26, "known": 45, "missed": 19, "counts": { "yes_true": 26, "yes_false": 84, "no_true": 19, "no_false": 121 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.23636363636363636, "npv": 0.8642857142857143, "sens": 0.5777777777777777, "spec": 0.5902439024390244, "youden": 0.16802168021680197, "accuracy": 0.588, "balancedAccuracy": 0.584010840108401 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06829640947288004, "npv": 0.05512540894220286, "sens": 0.1333333333333333, "spec": 0.07317073170731703, "youden": 0.20650406504065022, "accuracy": 0.08399999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.10325203252032511 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.15517241379310345, "hi": 0.32353641456582627, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00008684421483922811, "hi": 0.14345535714285712, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8091603053435115, "hi": 0.9153846153846154, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0012921837715614778, "hi": 0.11100938967136145, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.696969696969697, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.04166666666666663, "hi": 0.30910173160173143, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5247524752475248, "hi": 0.6581632653061225, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.009803921568627416, "hi": 0.15686974789915956, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.009839442355889693, "hi": 0.31774450185162, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.0011980118134210114, "hi": 0.41729276561593587, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.524, "hi": 0.652, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.16400000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5049197211779448, "hi": 0.65887225092581, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.0005990059067105057, "hi": 0.20864638280796793, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "coin": { "method": "Original saved claude-opus-5-5/N per-hypothesis coin decisions reused unchanged by task and generation index; never redrawn", "sourceSha256": "e2d9b19dd08bf214671712a12e4709140ecb0a9903edbfd800c909e08b208547", "tosses": [ { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" } ], "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0, "npv": 0, "sens": 0, "spec": 0, "youden": 0, "accuracy": 0, "balancedAccuracy": 0 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true } } } } }, "common": { "hypotheses": 250, "sources": 50, "ids": [ "R42581103|H1", "R42581103|H2", "R42581103|H3", "R42581103|H4", "R42581103|H5", "R42601407|H1", "R42601407|H2", "R42601407|H3", "R42601407|H4", "R42601407|H5", "R42605193|H1", "R42605193|H2", "R42605193|H3", "R42605193|H4", "R42605193|H5", "R42608398|H1", "R42608398|H2", "R42608398|H3", "R42608398|H4", "R42608398|H5", "R42627902|H1", "R42627902|H2", "R42627902|H3", "R42627902|H4", "R42627902|H5", "R42630044|H1", "R42630044|H2", "R42630044|H3", "R42630044|H4", "R42630044|H5", "R42639736|H1", "R42639736|H2", "R42639736|H3", "R42639736|H4", "R42639736|H5", "R42642518|H1", "R42642518|H2", "R42642518|H3", "R42642518|H4", "R42642518|H5", "R42642521|H1", "R42642521|H2", "R42642521|H3", "R42642521|H4", "R42642521|H5", "R42647119|H1", "R42647119|H2", "R42647119|H3", "R42647119|H4", "R42647119|H5", "R42647635|H1", "R42647635|H2", "R42647635|H3", "R42647635|H4", "R42647635|H5", "R42663085|H1", "R42663085|H2", "R42663085|H3", "R42663085|H4", "R42663085|H5", "R42664348|H1", "R42664348|H2", "R42664348|H3", "R42664348|H4", "R42664348|H5", "R42665751|H1", "R42665751|H2", "R42665751|H3", "R42665751|H4", "R42665751|H5", "R42689491|H1", "R42689491|H2", "R42689491|H3", "R42689491|H4", "R42689491|H5", "R42696595|H1", "R42696595|H2", "R42696595|H3", "R42696595|H4", "R42696595|H5", "R42698274|H1", "R42698274|H2", "R42698274|H3", "R42698274|H4", "R42698274|H5", "R42717261|H1", "R42717261|H2", "R42717261|H3", "R42717261|H4", "R42717261|H5", "R42723546|H1", "R42723546|H2", "R42723546|H3", "R42723546|H4", "R42723546|H5", "R42725837|H1", "R42725837|H2", "R42725837|H3", "R42725837|H4", "R42725837|H5", "R42736449|H1", "R42736449|H2", "R42736449|H3", "R42736449|H4", "R42736449|H5", "R42744804|H1", "R42744804|H2", "R42744804|H3", "R42744804|H4", "R42744804|H5", "R42749700|H1", "R42749700|H2", "R42749700|H3", "R42749700|H4", "R42749700|H5", "R42758848|H1", "R42758848|H2", "R42758848|H3", "R42758848|H4", "R42758848|H5", "R42759510|H1", "R42759510|H2", "R42759510|H3", "R42759510|H4", "R42759510|H5", "R42775695|H1", "R42775695|H2", "R42775695|H3", "R42775695|H4", "R42775695|H5", "R42775698|H1", "R42775698|H2", "R42775698|H3", "R42775698|H4", "R42775698|H5", "R42786310|H1", "R42786310|H2", "R42786310|H3", "R42786310|H4", "R42786310|H5", "R42805954|H1", "R42805954|H2", "R42805954|H3", "R42805954|H4", "R42805954|H5", "R42810392|H1", "R42810392|H2", "R42810392|H3", "R42810392|H4", "R42810392|H5", "R42811497|H1", "R42811497|H2", "R42811497|H3", "R42811497|H4", "R42811497|H5", "R42821663|H1", "R42821663|H2", "R42821663|H3", "R42821663|H4", "R42821663|H5", "R42822442|H1", "R42822442|H2", "R42822442|H3", "R42822442|H4", "R42822442|H5", "R42826184|H1", "R42826184|H2", "R42826184|H3", "R42826184|H4", "R42826184|H5", "R42839094|H1", "R42839094|H2", "R42839094|H3", "R42839094|H4", "R42839094|H5", "R42841227|H1", "R42841227|H2", "R42841227|H3", "R42841227|H4", "R42841227|H5", "R42842666|H1", "R42842666|H2", "R42842666|H3", "R42842666|H4", "R42842666|H5", "R42844664|H1", "R42844664|H2", "R42844664|H3", "R42844664|H4", "R42844664|H5", "R42853938|H1", "R42853938|H2", "R42853938|H3", "R42853938|H4", "R42853938|H5", "R42858183|H1", "R42858183|H2", "R42858183|H3", "R42858183|H4", "R42858183|H5", "R42806945|H1", "R42806945|H2", "R42806945|H3", "R42806945|H4", "R42806945|H5", "R42723144|H1", "R42723144|H2", "R42723144|H3", "R42723144|H4", "R42723144|H5", "R42808804|H1", "R42808804|H2", "R42808804|H3", "R42808804|H4", "R42808804|H5", "R42585340|H1", "R42585340|H2", "R42585340|H3", "R42585340|H4", "R42585340|H5", "R42669067|H1", "R42669067|H2", "R42669067|H3", "R42669067|H4", "R42669067|H5", "R42811065|H1", "R42811065|H2", "R42811065|H3", "R42811065|H4", "R42811065|H5", "R42841610|H1", "R42841610|H2", "R42841610|H3", "R42841610|H4", "R42841610|H5", "R42806003|H1", "R42806003|H2", "R42806003|H3", "R42806003|H4", "R42806003|H5", "R42806572|H1", "R42806572|H2", "R42806572|H3", "R42806572|H4", "R42806572|H5", "R42748238|H1", "R42748238|H2", "R42748238|H3", "R42748238|H4", "R42748238|H5" ], "excluded": [] }, "rules": [ { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 19, "known": 45, "missed": 26, "counts": { "yes_true": 19, "yes_false": 31, "no_true": 26, "no_false": 174 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.38, "npv": 0.87, "sens": 0.4222222222222222, "spec": 0.848780487804878, "youden": 0.2710027100271002, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6355013550135501 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2119327731092437, "npv": 0.06083969465648853, "sens": -0.0222222222222222, "spec": 0.3317073170731707, "youden": 0.30948509485094844, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15474254742547422 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.24528301886792453, "hi": 0.5098039215686274, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.10263381622417826, "hi": 0.3229179453082378, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8247422680412371, "hi": 0.9137055837563451, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.011794374145312111, "hi": 0.10928519786169986, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.30952380952380953, "hi": 0.5416666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.16666666666666663, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8202764976958525, "hi": 0.8792270531400966, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.26388888888888895, "hi": 0.4, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13818575251201393, "hi": 0.408119658119658, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.11470771490199931, "hi": 0.5140419769803655, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.732, "hi": 0.812, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.34, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5690928762560069, "hi": 0.704059829059829, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.057353857450999655, "hi": 0.25702098849018273, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 21, "known": 45, "missed": 24, "counts": { "yes_true": 21, "yes_false": 28, "no_true": 24, "no_false": 177 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.42857142857142855, "npv": 0.8805970149253731, "sens": 0.4666666666666667, "spec": 0.8634146341463415, "youden": 0.3300813008130081, "accuracy": 0.792, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6650406504065041 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.26050420168067223, "npv": 0.07143670958186166, "sens": 0.022222222222222254, "spec": 0.3463414634146341, "youden": 0.3685636856368564, "accuracy": 0.28800000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1842818428184282 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.28, "hi": 0.5777777777777777, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.12035576382279135, "hi": 0.4056660370283902, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8324607329842932, "hi": 0.9253731343283582, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.015984817329311115, "hi": 0.12609238289143876, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 0.6, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.18185606060606063, "hi": 0.2432432432432432, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8181818181818182, "hi": 0.905, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2639576283135927, "hi": 0.424390243902439, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.17442926346954793, "hi": 0.4877345839671818, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13475314051831647, "hi": 0.609228729105148, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.844, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.20399999999999996, "hi": 0.36800000000000005, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.587214631734774, "hi": 0.7438672919835909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06737657025915823, "hi": 0.304614364552574, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 70, "matches": 24, "known": 45, "missed": 21, "counts": { "yes_true": 24, "yes_false": 46, "no_true": 21, "no_false": 159 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.34285714285714286, "npv": 0.8833333333333333, "sens": 0.5333333333333333, "spec": 0.775609756097561, "youden": 0.30894308943089444, "accuracy": 0.732, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6544715447154472 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.17478991596638654, "npv": 0.07417302798982184, "sens": 0.0888888888888889, "spec": 0.25853658536585367, "youden": 0.3474254742547427, "accuracy": 0.22799999999999998, "balancedAccuracy": 0.17371273712737134 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.22535211267605634, "hi": 0.4642982897384304, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.06974815280848676, "hi": 0.2857178553580352, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8352272727272727, "hi": 0.9273743016759777, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01557758369967256, "hi": 0.13287927545091568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.40816326530612246, "hi": 0.6595851063829785, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.12195121951219512, "hi": 0.31250000000000006, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7272727272727273, "hi": 0.8235294117647058, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.17535545023696686, "hi": 0.33673601564978317, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.15833333333333321, "hi": 0.45978152929493543, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.11191964285714293, "hi": 0.5901280914550527, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.68, "hi": 0.784, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.1479999999999999, "hi": 0.308, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5791666666666666, "hi": 0.7298907646474677, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.05595982142857146, "hi": 0.29506404572752637, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 29, "matches": 16, "known": 45, "missed": 29, "counts": { "yes_true": 16, "yes_false": 13, "no_true": 29, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.5517241379310345, "npv": 0.8687782805429864, "sens": 0.35555555555555557, "spec": 0.9365853658536586, "youden": 0.2921409214092141, "accuracy": 0.832, "balancedAccuracy": 0.646070460704607 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.38365691104027816, "npv": 0.05961797519947498, "sens": -0.08888888888888885, "spec": 0.41951219512195126, "youden": 0.33062330623306235, "accuracy": 0.32799999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16531165311653118 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.37037037037037035, "hi": 0.7241379310344828, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.21915598739495798, "hi": 0.5519048475503984, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8214285714285714, "hi": 0.9134253246753247, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.013302173917461307, "hi": 0.10577943722943718, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.22857142857142856, "hi": 0.4878048780487805, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.2641509433962264, "hi": 0.10005102040816255, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.9052079383886256, "hi": 0.9656862745098039, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.34825870646766166, "hi": 0.49019607843137253, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.15526345354454563, "hi": 0.4350011696439422, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.14298183046251275, "hi": 0.5333130493576741, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.784, "hi": 0.88, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.252, "hi": 0.40399999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5776317267722728, "hi": 0.7175005848219711, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.07149091523125638, "hi": 0.26665652467883705, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 22, "known": 45, "missed": 23, "counts": { "yes_true": 22, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 23, "no_false": 171 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.39285714285714285, "npv": 0.8814432989690721, "sens": 0.4888888888888889, "spec": 0.8341463414634146, "youden": 0.3230352303523034, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6615176151761517 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.22478991596638653, "npv": 0.07228299362556068, "sens": 0.04444444444444445, "spec": 0.31707317073170727, "youden": 0.36151761517615166, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18075880758807583 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.26153846153846155, "hi": 0.5294117647058824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.1038799638077353, "hi": 0.35585291813552683, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8358060549525101, "hi": 0.9238578680203046, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01735558701648793, "hi": 0.1267302339475589, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.37142857142857144, "hi": 0.6097560975609756, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.139546511627907, "hi": 0.23809523809523814, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7821782178217822, "hi": 0.8793969849246231, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.23222748815165872, "hi": 0.3969091591980521, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1760796523821635, "hi": 0.46800529567519855, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13943769905994813, "hi": 0.5928646309269977, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.716, "hi": 0.824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.17999999999999994, "hi": 0.35200000000000004, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5880398261910817, "hi": 0.7340026478375993, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06971884952997406, "hi": 0.29643231546349885, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 75, "matches": 24, "known": 45, "missed": 21, "counts": { "yes_true": 24, "yes_false": 51, "no_true": 21, "no_false": 154 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.32, "npv": 0.88, "sens": 0.5333333333333333, "spec": 0.751219512195122, "youden": 0.2845528455284554, "accuracy": 0.712, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6422764227642277 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.1519327731092437, "npv": 0.07083969465648854, "sens": 0.0888888888888889, "spec": 0.23414634146341462, "youden": 0.32303523035230364, "accuracy": 0.20799999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16151761517615182 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.21794871794871795, "hi": 0.430802469135802, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.06206452222346621, "hi": 0.25275300674273266, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8324022346368715, "hi": 0.9248554913294798, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.016840275535464414, "hi": 0.12436407691123383, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.4186046511627907, "hi": 0.6585365853658537, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.09523809523809523, "hi": 0.2857142857142857, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6934673366834171, "hi": 0.8061224489795918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.14634146341463417, "hi": 0.3188425381903643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1521802241906921, "hi": 0.4240317775571003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.10897114891587265, "hi": 0.5490660952777521, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.66, "hi": 0.764, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.124, "hi": 0.288, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.576090112095346, "hi": 0.7120158887785502, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.05448557445793632, "hi": 0.27453304763887604, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 31, "matches": 17, "known": 45, "missed": 28, "counts": { "yes_true": 17, "yes_false": 14, "no_true": 28, "no_false": 191 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.5483870967741935, "npv": 0.8721461187214612, "sens": 0.37777777777777777, "spec": 0.9317073170731708, "youden": 0.30948509485094844, "accuracy": 0.832, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6547425474254742 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.3803198698834372, "npv": 0.06298581337794973, "sens": -0.06666666666666665, "spec": 0.41463414634146345, "youden": 0.3479674796747967, "accuracy": 0.32799999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.17398373983739834 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.375, "hi": 0.7142857142857143, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.2250694444444444, "hi": 0.540072309226721, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8293838862559242, "hi": 0.9128440366972477, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.014191563946978486, "hi": 0.11178500470563635, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.2653061224489796, "hi": 0.48936170212765956, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.24324324324324326, "hi": 0.11907142857142824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.900497512437811, "hi": 0.961352657004831, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.34466019417475735, "hi": 0.4840218806173681, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.18272425249169433, "hi": 0.43916510183446494, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.15369049355650766, "hi": 0.5515207373271889, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.784, "hi": 0.88, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.252, "hi": 0.40399999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5913621262458472, "hi": 0.7195825509172324, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.07684524677825383, "hi": 0.27576036866359444, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 72, "matches": 26, "known": 45, "missed": 19, "counts": { "yes_true": 26, "yes_false": 46, "no_true": 19, "no_false": 159 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.3611111111111111, "npv": 0.8932584269662921, "sens": 0.5777777777777777, "spec": 0.775609756097561, "youden": 0.3533875338753387, "accuracy": 0.74, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6766937669376694 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.1930438842203548, "npv": 0.08409812162278063, "sens": 0.1333333333333333, "spec": 0.25853658536585367, "youden": 0.39186991869918697, "accuracy": 0.236, "balancedAccuracy": 0.19593495934959348 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.2463768115942029, "hi": 0.4857142857142857, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.08655405596582064, "hi": 0.3111139769098501, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.847457627118644, "hi": 0.9352941176470588, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.02542438372244682, "hi": 0.14385487111633827, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.4564723320158103, "hi": 0.7045454545454546, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.06521739130434784, "hi": 0.34285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7163461538461539, "hi": 0.8292682926829268, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.16587677725118488, "hi": 0.34500444162436544, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.20407667921537548, "hi": 0.502737268262194, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.15702870001832808, "hi": 0.6365663669411141, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.68, "hi": 0.796, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.14400000000000002, "hi": 0.324, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.6020383396076877, "hi": 0.751368634131097, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.07851435000916404, "hi": 0.31828318347055706, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 33, "matches": 17, "known": 45, "missed": 28, "counts": { "yes_true": 17, "yes_false": 16, "no_true": 28, "no_false": 189 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.5151515151515151, "npv": 0.8709677419354839, "sens": 0.37777777777777777, "spec": 0.9219512195121952, "youden": 0.2997289972899728, "accuracy": 0.824, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6498644986449864 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.3470842882607588, "npv": 0.06180743659197241, "sens": -0.06666666666666665, "spec": 0.40487804878048783, "youden": 0.33821138211382107, "accuracy": 0.31999999999999995, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16910569105691053 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.34375, "hi": 0.6764705882352942, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.19311294765840217, "hi": 0.5068738576557412, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8229665071770335, "hi": 0.915929203539823, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.011679925026515416, "hi": 0.11229352099095098, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.25, "hi": 0.5121951219512195, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.26, "hi": 0.14285714285714285, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8904761904761904, "hi": 0.9519230769230769, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.33333333333333326, "hi": 0.4761960916442048, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1608866690240452, "hi": 0.4450611724697402, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1320970695970698, "hi": 0.5604619456066565, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.776, "hi": 0.872, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.244, "hi": 0.396, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5804433345120226, "hi": 0.7225305862348701, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0660485347985349, "hi": 0.28023097280332826, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 86, "matches": 27, "known": 45, "missed": 18, "counts": { "yes_true": 27, "yes_false": 59, "no_true": 18, "no_false": 146 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.313953488372093, "npv": 0.8902439024390244, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.7121951219512195, "youden": 0.31219512195121935, "accuracy": 0.692, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6560975609756097 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.1458862614813367, "npv": 0.08108359709551294, "sens": 0.15555555555555556, "spec": 0.19512195121951215, "youden": 0.3506775067750676, "accuracy": 0.18799999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1753387533875338 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.21052631578947367, "hi": 0.42857142857142855, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.05199836436590766, "hi": 0.2526491024017485, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8424242424242424, "hi": 0.9349112426035503, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.02015629272070522, "hi": 0.14240762134239934, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.47914402173913045, "hi": 0.7254901960784313, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.0476480836236934, "hi": 0.3695853462157807, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6476190476190476, "hi": 0.7748723821989528, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.0994659438901512, "hi": 0.2857142857142857, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.16368912337662345, "hi": 0.4619047619047618, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.11103714475740042, "hi": 0.5972914388901219, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.632, "hi": 0.752, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.09599999999999997, "hi": 0.27599999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5818445616883118, "hi": 0.7309523809523809, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.05551857237870021, "hi": 0.29864571944506096, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 45, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 25, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 180 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.4444444444444444, "npv": 0.8780487804878049, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.8780487804878049, "youden": 0.3224932249322494, "accuracy": 0.8, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6612466124661247 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2763772175536881, "npv": 0.06888847514429342, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.36097560975609755, "youden": 0.36097560975609766, "accuracy": 0.29600000000000004, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18048780487804883 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.3023255813953488, "hi": 0.5833333333333334, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.15384615384615383, "hi": 0.4023229746444032, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8325123152709359, "hi": 0.920801833877969, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.018536838862106598, "hi": 0.11825552591463416, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 0.5641025641025641, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.18181818181818182, "hi": 0.1951219512195122, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.84688995215311, "hi": 0.9109947643979057, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2918610446570973, "hi": 0.43077981651376135, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.19172543141733292, "hi": 0.46001162790697653, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.15880605358126387, "hi": 0.575234441602728, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.756, "hi": 0.844, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.22399999999999998, "hi": 0.37199999999999994, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5958627157086664, "hi": 0.7300058139534883, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.07940302679063194, "hi": 0.287617220801364, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 24, "matches": 15, "known": 45, "missed": 30, "counts": { "yes_true": 15, "yes_false": 9, "no_true": 30, "no_false": 196 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.625, "npv": 0.8672566371681416, "sens": 0.3333333333333333, "spec": 0.9560975609756097, "youden": 0.289430894308943, "accuracy": 0.844, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6447154471544715 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.4569327731092437, "npv": 0.05809633182463014, "sens": -0.1111111111111111, "spec": 0.4390243902439024, "youden": 0.3279132791327912, "accuracy": 0.33999999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1639566395663956 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.43478260869565216, "hi": 0.8076923076923077, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.27660699152542373, "hi": 0.6397176871599448, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8209606986899564, "hi": 0.9111111111111111, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01072370994015882, "hi": 0.10574105859555465, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.20689655172413793, "hi": 0.46296296296296297, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.28888888888888886, "hi": 0.07897368421052596, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.9289340101522843, "hi": 0.9805825242718447, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.3684145064152919, "hi": 0.5094339622641508, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.15706126687435096, "hi": 0.42646893607459835, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13803381245458926, "hi": 0.5310330951314652, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.796, "hi": 0.892, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.264, "hi": 0.416, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5785306334371755, "hi": 0.7132344680372992, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06901690622729463, "hi": 0.2655165475657326, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 26, "known": 45, "missed": 19, "counts": { "yes_true": 26, "yes_false": 84, "no_true": 19, "no_false": 121 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.23636363636363636, "npv": 0.8642857142857143, "sens": 0.5777777777777777, "spec": 0.5902439024390244, "youden": 0.16802168021680197, "accuracy": 0.588, "balancedAccuracy": 0.584010840108401 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06829640947288004, "npv": 0.05512540894220286, "sens": 0.1333333333333333, "spec": 0.07317073170731703, "youden": 0.20650406504065022, "accuracy": 0.08399999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.10325203252032511 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.15517241379310345, "hi": 0.32353641456582627, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00008684421483922811, "hi": 0.14345535714285712, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8091603053435115, "hi": 0.9153846153846154, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0012921837715614778, "hi": 0.11100938967136145, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.696969696969697, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.04166666666666663, "hi": 0.30910173160173143, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5247524752475248, "hi": 0.6581632653061225, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.009803921568627416, "hi": 0.15686974789915956, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.009839442355889693, "hi": 0.31774450185162, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.0011980118134210114, "hi": 0.41729276561593587, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.524, "hi": 0.652, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.16400000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5049197211779448, "hi": 0.65887225092581, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.0005990059067105057, "hi": 0.20864638280796793, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 123, "matches": 28, "known": 45, "missed": 17, "counts": { "yes_true": 28, "yes_false": 95, "no_true": 17, "no_false": 110 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.22764227642276422, "npv": 0.8661417322834646, "sens": 0.6222222222222222, "spec": 0.5365853658536586, "youden": 0.1588075880758808, "accuracy": 0.552, "balancedAccuracy": 0.5794037940379404 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0595750495320079, "npv": 0.05698142693995312, "sens": 0.1777777777777778, "spec": 0.019512195121951237, "youden": 0.19728997289972905, "accuracy": 0.04800000000000004, "balancedAccuracy": 0.09864498644986452 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.1484375, "hi": 0.3130434782608696, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.009373188930744706, "hi": 0.1367106652455013, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8062015503875969, "hi": 0.92, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0075663742742331066, "hi": 0.1201256004734856, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.4888888888888889, "hi": 0.7446808510638298, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.3729343220338975, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4666666666666667, "hi": 0.6091370558375635, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.07035352820440226, "hi": 0.11004784688995212, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.008677025476937892, "hi": 0.31756273883831415, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.02935476095546818, "hi": 0.42902930402930406, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.484, "hi": 0.62, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.040000000000000036, "hi": 0.136, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.49566148726153103, "hi": 0.6587813694191571, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.01467738047773409, "hi": 0.21451465201465203, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 37, "matches": 17, "known": 45, "missed": 28, "counts": { "yes_true": 17, "yes_false": 20, "no_true": 28, "no_false": 185 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.4594594594594595, "npv": 0.8685446009389671, "sens": 0.37777777777777777, "spec": 0.9024390243902439, "youden": 0.2802168021680216, "accuracy": 0.808, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6401084010840108 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.29139223256870317, "npv": 0.05938429559545566, "sens": -0.06666666666666665, "spec": 0.3853658536585366, "youden": 0.31869918699186983, "accuracy": 0.30400000000000005, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15934959349593492 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.30303030303030304, "hi": 0.6176470588235294, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.1562562463982064, "hi": 0.4350138901137666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8227255933721451, "hi": 0.9116279069767442, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.013582993117825347, "hi": 0.10444709255285457, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.2619047619047619, "hi": 0.5, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.22916666666666663, "hi": 0.10526315789473684, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8689320388349514, "hi": 0.9354838709677419, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.3188405797101449, "hi": 0.4511657722122838, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.14820454257073967, "hi": 0.41743230604792025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13809406628127024, "hi": 0.5118639766527089, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.76, "hi": 0.856, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.23199999999999998, "hi": 0.37599999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5741022712853698, "hi": 0.7087161530239601, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06904703314063512, "hi": 0.25593198832635444, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 120, "matches": 29, "known": 45, "missed": 16, "counts": { "yes_true": 29, "yes_false": 91, "no_true": 16, "no_false": 114 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.24166666666666667, "npv": 0.8769230769230769, "sens": 0.6444444444444445, "spec": 0.5560975609756098, "youden": 0.20054200542005418, "accuracy": 0.572, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6002710027100271 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07359943977591035, "npv": 0.06776277157956545, "sens": 0.20000000000000007, "spec": 0.039024390243902474, "youden": 0.23902439024390243, "accuracy": 0.06799999999999995, "balancedAccuracy": 0.11951219512195121 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.15928700724054706, "hi": 0.3305084745762712, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.0015609280907353555, "hi": 0.15427013644546902, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8181818181818182, "hi": 0.9285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.002671252002587392, "hi": 0.13338958589058533, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.5121951219512195, "hi": 0.7678571428571429, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.40476190476190477, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.49, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.041860465116279055, "hi": 0.12195121951219506, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.02975372951674762, "hi": 0.36100991269719157, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.009068308146604222, "hi": 0.4796559716869139, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.504, "hi": 0.64, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.016000000000000014, "hi": 0.15200000000000002, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5148768647583738, "hi": 0.6805049563485958, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.004534154073302111, "hi": 0.23982798584345694, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 39, "matches": 18, "known": 45, "missed": 27, "counts": { "yes_true": 18, "yes_false": 21, "no_true": 27, "no_false": 184 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.46153846153846156, "npv": 0.8720379146919431, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.8975609756097561, "youden": 0.29756097560975614, "accuracy": 0.808, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6487804878048781 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.29347123464770525, "npv": 0.06287760934843167, "sens": -0.0444444444444444, "spec": 0.3804878048780488, "youden": 0.3360433604336044, "accuracy": 0.30400000000000005, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1680216802168022 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.2894736842105263, "hi": 0.6333333333333333, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.13068181818181818, "hi": 0.4612624678249679, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8224275345130224, "hi": 0.9186602870813397, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.012274711051515447, "hi": 0.11385537650019355, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.26, "hi": 0.5454545454545454, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.23076923076923078, "hi": 0.15626531862745074, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8527918781725888, "hi": 0.9371734071882035, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.29499827188940086, "hi": 0.4607843137254902, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13863131274165066, "hi": 0.46050600354395277, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.12104618607715172, "hi": 0.561584249084249, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.752, "hi": 0.8600999999999985, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.21600000000000008, "hi": 0.38799999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5693156563708254, "hi": 0.7302530017719764, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06052309303857586, "hi": 0.2807921245421245, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 129, "matches": 30, "known": 45, "missed": 15, "counts": { "yes_true": 30, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 15, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.23255813953488372, "npv": 0.8760330578512396, "sens": 0.6666666666666666, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": 0.18373983739837385, "accuracy": 0.544, "balancedAccuracy": 0.5918699186991869 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0644909126441274, "npv": 0.06687275250772817, "sens": 0.2222222222222222, "spec": 0, "youden": 0.2222222222222221, "accuracy": 0.040000000000000036, "balancedAccuracy": 0.11111111111111105 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.15328467153284672, "hi": 0.31897457258765566, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.00715584022900634, "hi": 0.1435574758376172, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8129954268292683, "hi": 0.9304347826086956, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0034722370557074647, "hi": 0.13610014024055272, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.5333333333333333, "hi": 0.7894736842105263, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0.022727272727272707, "hi": 0.4318181818181818, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.44660194174757284, "hi": 0.59, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.09045285953577416, "hi": 0.089622641509434, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.013196707787592707, "hi": 0.346077457795432, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.01897446341420476, "hi": 0.46836685009089896, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.472, "hi": 0.616, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.051999999999999935, "hi": 0.13199999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5065983538937964, "hi": 0.673038728897716, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.00948723170710238, "hi": 0.23418342504544948, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 55, "matches": 21, "known": 45, "missed": 24, "counts": { "yes_true": 21, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 24, "no_false": 171 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.38181818181818183, "npv": 0.8769230769230769, "sens": 0.4666666666666667, "spec": 0.8341463414634146, "youden": 0.30081300813008127, "accuracy": 0.768, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6504065040650406 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.21375095492742552, "npv": 0.06776277157956545, "sens": 0.022222222222222254, "spec": 0.31707317073170727, "youden": 0.3392953929539295, "accuracy": 0.264, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16964769647696476 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.25, "hi": 0.52, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.09433083717357911, "hi": 0.3390500309067664, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8316326530612245, "hi": 0.92, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.014184363168278407, "hi": 0.12076052930618722, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3469387755102041, "hi": 0.5882352941176471, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.16666666666666663, "hi": 0.21951219512195125, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7871287128712872, "hi": 0.8792270531400966, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.23737373737373735, "hi": 0.3913094749794913, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.15095259729053617, "hi": 0.4470880493438061, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1235588996843077, "hi": 0.5606870116031257, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.716, "hi": 0.82, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.18399999999999994, "hi": 0.34, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5754762986452681, "hi": 0.723544024671903, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06177944984215385, "hi": 0.28034350580156286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 25, "matches": 15, "known": 45, "missed": 30, "counts": { "yes_true": 15, "yes_false": 10, "no_true": 30, "no_false": 195 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.6, "npv": 0.8666666666666667, "sens": 0.3333333333333333, "spec": 0.9512195121951219, "youden": 0.28455284552845517, "accuracy": 0.84, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6422764227642276 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.43193277310924366, "npv": 0.05750636132315523, "sens": -0.1111111111111111, "spec": 0.4341463414634146, "youden": 0.3230352303523034, "accuracy": 0.33599999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1615176151761517 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.4074074074074074, "hi": 0.7777777777777778, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.25350962080499084, "hi": 0.6147009803921568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8193832599118943, "hi": 0.911504424778761, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.012964791807830342, "hi": 0.10184941190331713, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.20454545454545456, "hi": 0.46808510638297873, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.2790697674418604, "hi": 0.06666666666666665, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.922328839478847, "hi": 0.9761904761904762, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.3627438281011886, "hi": 0.5049019607843137, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.14783520581640533, "hi": 0.4281135531135529, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.14249199465207718, "hi": 0.5156202953319634, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.788, "hi": 0.888, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.26, "hi": 0.41200000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5739176029082027, "hi": 0.7140567765567765, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.07124599732603859, "hi": 0.2578101476659817, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 121, "matches": 30, "known": 45, "missed": 15, "counts": { "yes_true": 30, "yes_false": 91, "no_true": 15, "no_false": 114 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.24793388429752067, "npv": 0.8837209302325582, "sens": 0.6666666666666666, "spec": 0.5560975609756098, "youden": 0.22276422764227632, "accuracy": 0.576, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6113821138211382 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07986665740676435, "npv": 0.07456062488904669, "sens": 0.2222222222222222, "spec": 0.039024390243902474, "youden": 0.2612466124661246, "accuracy": 0.07199999999999995, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1306233062330623 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.16964285714285715, "hi": 0.3333333333333333, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.014268080649384635, "hi": 0.1532138597489816, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.832, "hi": 0.9312977099236641, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.015900149606367008, "hi": 0.13312765843785654, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.5555555555555556, "hi": 0.775, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0.05404198841698843, "hi": 0.4, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4878048780487805, "hi": 0.625593000723741, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.045226130653266416, "hi": 0.12381061598951511, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.08069024182768247, "hi": 0.363096447928765, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.05404821765286871, "hi": 0.47999548589567687, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.512, "hi": 0.64, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.01200000000000001, "hi": 0.15599999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5403451209138412, "hi": 0.6815482239643825, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.027024108826434357, "hi": 0.23999774294783843, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 45, "matches": 18, "known": 45, "missed": 27, "counts": { "yes_true": 18, "yes_false": 27, "no_true": 27, "no_false": 178 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.4, "npv": 0.8682926829268293, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.8682926829268293, "youden": 0.2682926829268293, "accuracy": 0.784, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6341463414634146 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2319327731092437, "npv": 0.0591323775833178, "sens": -0.0444444444444444, "spec": 0.35121951219512193, "youden": 0.30677506775067753, "accuracy": 0.28, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15338753387533877 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.25, "hi": 0.5531914893617021, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.09241798418972332, "hi": 0.3771954911561225, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.820378640776699, "hi": 0.9126269261601496, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.006773893745254975, "hi": 0.10966983404000624, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.2727272727272727, "hi": 0.5319148936170213, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.22727272727272724, "hi": 0.14635939741750334, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8235294117647058, "hi": 0.91, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.26903134278325824, "hi": 0.43, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.11891711936486138, "hi": 0.41984390883261874, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.09050776243837284, "hi": 0.5313327449249781, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.728, "hi": 0.836, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.19599999999999995, "hi": 0.364, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5594585596824307, "hi": 0.7099219544163093, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.04525388121918642, "hi": 0.26566637246248903, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 131, "matches": 31, "known": 45, "missed": 14, "counts": { "yes_true": 31, "yes_false": 100, "no_true": 14, "no_false": 105 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.2366412213740458, "npv": 0.8823529411764706, "sens": 0.6888888888888889, "spec": 0.5121951219512195, "youden": 0.2010840108401084, "accuracy": 0.544, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6005420054200542 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06857399448328949, "npv": 0.0731926358329591, "sens": 0.24444444444444446, "spec": -0.004878048780487809, "youden": 0.23956639566395665, "accuracy": 0.040000000000000036, "balancedAccuracy": 0.11978319783197833 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.16153225806451615, "hi": 0.31852015732546707, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.0022916979864851697, "hi": 0.14163461342537081, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8275862068965517, "hi": 0.9322033898305084, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.010492608565806978, "hi": 0.13436367950057326, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.5813953488372093, "hi": 0.7954545454545454, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0.0714285714285714, "hi": 0.4285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4393939393939394, "hi": 0.5876842744528328, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.09906775086830003, "hi": 0.08999999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.05614290922347798, "hi": 0.34399823477493374, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.02498729075384781, "hi": 0.4643431771076574, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.472, "hi": 0.616, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.051999999999999935, "hi": 0.128, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.528071454611739, "hi": 0.6719991173874669, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.012493645376923905, "hi": 0.2321715885538287, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 57, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 37, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 168 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.3508771929824561, "npv": 0.8704663212435233, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.8195121951219512, "youden": 0.2639566395663957, "accuracy": 0.752, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6319783197831979 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.1828099660916998, "npv": 0.061306015900011834, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.30243902439024384, "youden": 0.30243902439024395, "accuracy": 0.248, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15121951219512197 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.22580645161290322, "hi": 0.48214285714285715, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.07444694891845628, "hi": 0.3037283263649778, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8219895287958116, "hi": 0.9157894736842105, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.00932701965848759, "hi": 0.1130203388357633, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.32075471698113206, "hi": 0.5714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.18367346938775503, "hi": 0.19444444444444442, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7704081632653061, "hi": 0.8653846153846154, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.22659633794962353, "hi": 0.3762487235270611, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.11985204684459277, "hi": 0.41284201235657547, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.09467133017020475, "hi": 0.5231246281466899, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.7, "hi": 0.804, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.17199999999999993, "hi": 0.32799999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5599260234222964, "hi": 0.7064210061782877, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.047335665085102376, "hi": 0.26156231407334496, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 28, "matches": 16, "known": 45, "missed": 29, "counts": { "yes_true": 16, "yes_false": 12, "no_true": 29, "no_false": 193 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.5714285714285714, "npv": 0.8693693693693694, "sens": 0.35555555555555557, "spec": 0.9414634146341463, "youden": 0.2970189701897019, "accuracy": 0.836, "balancedAccuracy": 0.648509485094851 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.4033613445378151, "npv": 0.060209064025857906, "sens": -0.08888888888888885, "spec": 0.42439024390243896, "youden": 0.33550135501355016, "accuracy": 0.33199999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16775067750677508 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.38884408602150544, "hi": 0.75, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.2394808593244444, "hi": 0.5746154996915799, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8251121076233184, "hi": 0.9107142857142857, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.013250316325399787, "hi": 0.10659012002035254, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.2391304347826087, "hi": 0.475, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.2558139534883721, "hi": 0.08888888888888885, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.9117647058823529, "hi": 0.9701492537313433, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.3526570048309179, "hi": 0.49514563106796117, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.17027109351203173, "hi": 0.4260171363238596, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1475613392775128, "hi": 0.5345280736246376, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.788, "hi": 0.884, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.256, "hi": 0.40800000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5851355467560159, "hi": 0.7130085681619298, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0737806696387564, "hi": 0.2672640368123188, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 126, "matches": 31, "known": 45, "missed": 14, "counts": { "yes_true": 31, "yes_false": 95, "no_true": 14, "no_false": 110 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.24603174603174602, "npv": 0.8870967741935484, "sens": 0.6888888888888889, "spec": 0.5365853658536586, "youden": 0.22547425474254745, "accuracy": 0.564, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6127371273712737 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0779645191409897, "npv": 0.07793646885003691, "sens": 0.24444444444444446, "spec": 0.019512195121951237, "youden": 0.2639566395663957, "accuracy": 0.05999999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.13197831978319785 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.16666666666666666, "hi": 0.3333333333333333, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.011277713047012595, "hi": 0.1542976222329973, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8333333333333334, "hi": 0.9357142857142857, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01518960575646869, "hi": 0.14193536960860978, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.575, "hi": 0.8, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0.06521739130434778, "hi": 0.4358974358974359, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.46568627450980393, "hi": 0.61, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.06542646087038605, "hi": 0.106280193236715, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.07546837449506569, "hi": 0.3727610314309122, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.04729177931743841, "hi": 0.49271626654187695, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.496, "hi": 0.632, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.02400000000000002, "hi": 0.14799999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5377341872475329, "hi": 0.6863805157154561, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.023645889658719204, "hi": 0.24635813327093847, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 61, "matches": 23, "known": 45, "missed": 22, "counts": { "yes_true": 23, "yes_false": 38, "no_true": 22, "no_false": 167 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.3770491803278688, "npv": 0.8835978835978836, "sens": 0.5111111111111111, "spec": 0.8146341463414634, "youden": 0.3257452574525743, "accuracy": 0.76, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6628726287262872 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2089819534371125, "npv": 0.07443757825437214, "sens": 0.06666666666666665, "spec": 0.29756097560975603, "youden": 0.36422764227642257, "accuracy": 0.256, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18211382113821128 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.2535211267605634, "hi": 0.5084745762711864, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.09000273064356959, "hi": 0.3380781306768148, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8360655737704918, "hi": 0.927461139896373, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01720151499803244, "hi": 0.1314344109088823, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.38461538461538464, "hi": 0.6410256410256411, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.13207547169811318, "hi": 0.27272727272727276, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7621359223300971, "hi": 0.8627450980392157, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.20812182741116747, "hi": 0.38164251207729466, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.17287544225078955, "hi": 0.477355057036667, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1295965259703164, "hi": 0.6011573679417015, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.704, "hi": 0.812, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.16799999999999993, "hi": 0.344, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5864377211253947, "hi": 0.7386775285183335, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0647982629851582, "hi": 0.30057868397085075, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 28, "matches": 15, "known": 45, "missed": 30, "counts": { "yes_true": 15, "yes_false": 13, "no_true": 30, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.5357142857142857, "npv": 0.8648648648648649, "sens": 0.3333333333333333, "spec": 0.9365853658536586, "youden": 0.26991869918699196, "accuracy": 0.828, "balancedAccuracy": 0.634959349593496 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.3676470588235294, "npv": 0.05570455952135345, "sens": -0.1111111111111111, "spec": 0.41951219512195126, "youden": 0.3084010840108402, "accuracy": 0.32399999999999995, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1542005420054201 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.34782608695652173, "hi": 0.7083333333333334, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.19734467804320746, "hi": 0.5416701505016722, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8165938864628821, "hi": 0.9103139013452914, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.008325344849040683, "hi": 0.10320527775063519, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.20454545454545456, "hi": 0.46808510638297873, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.2894736842105263, "hi": 0.07894736842105265, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.9056603773584906, "hi": 0.9656862745098039, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.3465346534653466, "hi": 0.4925391515329755, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13403815773484018, "hi": 0.41403783794155447, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1160240628048497, "hi": 0.513510551948052, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.78, "hi": 0.876, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.248, "hi": 0.40399999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5670190788674201, "hi": 0.7070189189707773, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.05801203140242485, "hi": 0.256755275974026, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 134, "matches": 32, "known": 45, "missed": 13, "counts": { "yes_true": 32, "yes_false": 102, "no_true": 13, "no_false": 103 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.23880597014925373, "npv": 0.8879310344827587, "sens": 0.7111111111111111, "spec": 0.5024390243902439, "youden": 0.21355013550135515, "accuracy": 0.54, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6067750677506776 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07073874325849741, "npv": 0.07877072913924721, "sens": 0.2666666666666667, "spec": -0.014634146341463428, "youden": 0.2520325203252034, "accuracy": 0.03600000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1260162601626017 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.16233327483327484, "hi": 0.322840702604482, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.0034069977020539217, "hi": 0.1461709005820992, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8317757009345794, "hi": 0.9379862111545585, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.012177225462898782, "hi": 0.14434200122948881, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.6, "hi": 0.82, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0.08333333333333337, "hi": 0.46341463414634143, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.42924528301886794, "hi": 0.5789538822303282, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.10825059671931339, "hi": 0.07882748866019594, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.06293617561223197, "hi": 0.36190476190476195, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.027452925614690246, "hi": 0.48572380695628364, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.468, "hi": 0.612, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.05600000000000005, "hi": 0.12799999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.531468087806116, "hi": 0.680952380952381, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.013726462807345123, "hi": 0.24286190347814182, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 70, "matches": 23, "known": 45, "missed": 22, "counts": { "yes_true": 23, "yes_false": 47, "no_true": 22, "no_false": 158 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.32857142857142857, "npv": 0.8777777777777778, "sens": 0.5111111111111111, "spec": 0.7707317073170732, "youden": 0.28184281842818426, "accuracy": 0.724, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6409214092140921 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.16050420168067225, "npv": 0.0686174724342663, "sens": 0.06666666666666665, "spec": 0.25365853658536586, "youden": 0.3203252032520325, "accuracy": 0.21999999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.16016260162601625 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.21428571428571427, "hi": 0.4492753623188406, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.056289938060327345, "hi": 0.274093717914549, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8295454545454546, "hi": 0.9234972677595629, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.011325051353141236, "hi": 0.125983979404916, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.38461538461538464, "hi": 0.6410256410256411, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.13207547169811318, "hi": 0.27272727272727276, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7184466019417476, "hi": 0.82, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.1707317073170732, "hi": 0.33170731707317075, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.12955173396098638, "hi": 0.4332039557315082, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.08902451991027079, "hi": 0.5558630952380952, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.668, "hi": 0.776, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.136, "hi": 0.3, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5647758669804932, "hi": 0.7166019778657541, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.04451225995513539, "hi": 0.2779315476190476, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 39, "matches": 19, "known": 45, "missed": 26, "counts": { "yes_true": 19, "yes_false": 20, "no_true": 26, "no_false": 185 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.48717948717948717, "npv": 0.8767772511848341, "sens": 0.4222222222222222, "spec": 0.9024390243902439, "youden": 0.3246612466124661, "accuracy": 0.816, "balancedAccuracy": 0.662330623306233 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.31911226028873085, "npv": 0.0676169458413226, "sens": -0.0222222222222222, "spec": 0.3853658536585366, "youden": 0.36314363143631434, "accuracy": 0.31199999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18157181571815717 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 0.6363636363636364, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.18498972573759256, "hi": 0.45997154569195736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8324938999125271, "hi": 0.919047619047619, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.018433692640989045, "hi": 0.11554644114505679, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3090909090909091, "hi": 0.5416666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.16666666666666663, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8693467336683417, "hi": 0.9356435643564357, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.31400966183574885, "hi": 0.4567307692307692, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1926712568561093, "hi": 0.4611639133650075, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1654735017059782, "hi": 0.5707650092745385, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.768, "hi": 0.864, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.24, "hi": 0.38799999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5963356284280547, "hi": 0.7305819566825038, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0827367508529891, "hi": 0.2853825046372693, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 4, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 22, "matches": 14, "known": 45, "missed": 31, "counts": { "yes_true": 14, "yes_false": 8, "no_true": 31, "no_false": 197 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.6363636363636364, "npv": 0.8640350877192983, "sens": 0.3111111111111111, "spec": 0.9609756097560975, "youden": 0.27208672086720864, "accuracy": 0.844, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6360433604336043 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.46829640947288004, "npv": 0.0548747823757868, "sens": -0.1333333333333333, "spec": 0.4439024390243902, "youden": 0.3105691056910569, "accuracy": 0.33999999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15528455284552845 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.43478260869565216, "hi": 0.8235294117647058, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.2777777777777778, "hi": 0.6604455420075114, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8165938864628821, "hi": 0.9078961131909271, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.008397773038614413, "hi": 0.10047112197984263, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.18421052631578946, "hi": 0.4423076923076923, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.3023255813953488, "hi": 0.04878048780487809, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.9346733668341709, "hi": 0.9851485148514851, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.372546518607443, "hi": 0.5145631067961165, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.14142118159219233, "hi": 0.4080440399955061, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.1288316105016164, "hi": 0.5071437115516062, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.796, "hi": 0.892, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.264, "hi": 0.41600000000000004, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5707105907960962, "hi": 0.704022019997753, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0644158052508082, "hi": 0.2535718557758031, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "baselines": [ { "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 19, "known": 45, "missed": 26, "counts": { "yes_true": 19, "yes_false": 31, "no_true": 26, "no_false": 174 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.38, "npv": 0.87, "sens": 0.4222222222222222, "spec": 0.848780487804878, "youden": 0.2710027100271002, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6355013550135501 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.2119327731092437, "npv": 0.06083969465648853, "sens": -0.0222222222222222, "spec": 0.3317073170731707, "youden": 0.30948509485094844, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.15474254742547422 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.24528301886792453, "hi": 0.5098039215686274, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.10263381622417826, "hi": 0.3229179453082378, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8247422680412371, "hi": 0.9137055837563451, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.011794374145312111, "hi": 0.10928519786169986, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.30952380952380953, "hi": 0.5416666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.16666666666666663, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8202764976958525, "hi": 0.8792270531400966, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.26388888888888895, "hi": 0.4, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13818575251201393, "hi": 0.408119658119658, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.11470771490199931, "hi": 0.5140419769803655, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.732, "hi": 0.812, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.19999999999999996, "hi": 0.34, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5690928762560069, "hi": 0.704059829059829, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.057353857450999655, "hi": 0.25702098849018273, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gpt-6-astra", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 21, "known": 45, "missed": 24, "counts": { "yes_true": 21, "yes_false": 28, "no_true": 24, "no_false": 177 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.42857142857142855, "npv": 0.8805970149253731, "sens": 0.4666666666666667, "spec": 0.8634146341463415, "youden": 0.3300813008130081, "accuracy": 0.792, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6650406504065041 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.26050420168067223, "npv": 0.07143670958186166, "sens": 0.022222222222222254, "spec": 0.3463414634146341, "youden": 0.3685636856368564, "accuracy": 0.28800000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1842818428184282 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.28, "hi": 0.5777777777777777, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.12035576382279135, "hi": 0.4056660370283902, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8324607329842932, "hi": 0.9253731343283582, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.015984817329311115, "hi": 0.12609238289143876, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 0.6, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.18185606060606063, "hi": 0.2432432432432432, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8181818181818182, "hi": 0.905, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2639576283135927, "hi": 0.424390243902439, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.17442926346954793, "hi": 0.4877345839671818, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13475314051831647, "hi": 0.609228729105148, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.844, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.20399999999999996, "hi": 0.36800000000000005, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.587214631734774, "hi": 0.7438672919835909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06737657025915823, "hi": 0.304614364552574, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gemini-4-argon-high", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 22, "known": 45, "missed": 23, "counts": { "yes_true": 22, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 23, "no_false": 171 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.39285714285714285, "npv": 0.8814432989690721, "sens": 0.4888888888888889, "spec": 0.8341463414634146, "youden": 0.3230352303523034, "accuracy": 0.772, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6615176151761517 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.22478991596638653, "npv": 0.07228299362556068, "sens": 0.04444444444444445, "spec": 0.31707317073170727, "youden": 0.36151761517615166, "accuracy": 0.268, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18075880758807583 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.26153846153846155, "hi": 0.5294117647058824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.1038799638077353, "hi": 0.35585291813552683, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8358060549525101, "hi": 0.9238578680203046, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0.01735558701648793, "hi": 0.1267302339475589, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.37142857142857144, "hi": 0.6097560975609756, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.139546511627907, "hi": 0.23809523809523814, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7821782178217822, "hi": 0.8793969849246231, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.23222748815165872, "hi": 0.3969091591980521, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.1760796523821635, "hi": 0.46800529567519855, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.13943769905994813, "hi": 0.5928646309269977, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.716, "hi": 0.824, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.17999999999999994, "hi": 0.35200000000000004, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5880398261910817, "hi": 0.7340026478375993, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.06971884952997406, "hi": 0.29643231546349885, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "grok-4.5", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 26, "known": 45, "missed": 19, "counts": { "yes_true": 26, "yes_false": 84, "no_true": 19, "no_false": 121 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.23636363636363636, "npv": 0.8642857142857143, "sens": 0.5777777777777777, "spec": 0.5902439024390244, "youden": 0.16802168021680197, "accuracy": 0.588, "balancedAccuracy": 0.584010840108401 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 20, "known": 45, "missed": 25, "counts": { "yes_true": 20, "yes_false": 99, "no_true": 25, "no_false": 106 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.16806722689075632, "npv": 0.8091603053435115, "sens": 0.4444444444444444, "spec": 0.5170731707317073, "youden": -0.03848238482384825, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4807588075880759 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06829640947288004, "npv": 0.05512540894220286, "sens": 0.1333333333333333, "spec": 0.07317073170731703, "youden": 0.20650406504065022, "accuracy": 0.08399999999999996, "balancedAccuracy": 0.10325203252032511 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.15517241379310345, "hi": 0.32353641456582627, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0.09836065573770492, "hi": 0.24561775200713643, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00008684421483922811, "hi": 0.14345535714285712, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.8091603053435115, "hi": 0.9153846153846154, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.7443609022556391, "hi": 0.8714285714285714, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0012921837715614778, "hi": 0.11100938967136145, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.696969696969697, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0.29411764705882354, "hi": 0.5909090909090909, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.04166666666666663, "hi": 0.30910173160173143, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5247524752475248, "hi": 0.6581632653061225, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.44711538461538464, "hi": 0.5862068965517241, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.009803921568627416, "hi": 0.15686974789915956, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.009839442355889693, "hi": 0.31774450185162, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.20435345904095903, "hi": 0.12431336025086025, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.0011980118134210114, "hi": 0.41729276561593587, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.524, "hi": 0.652, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.444, "hi": 0.568, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.16400000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5049197211779448, "hi": 0.65887225092581, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.3978232704795205, "hi": 0.5621566801254301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.0005990059067105057, "hi": 0.20864638280796793, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "voteCounts": [ { "votes": 0, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 116, "matches": 13, "known": 45, "missed": 32, "counts": { "yes_true": 13, "yes_false": 103, "no_true": 32, "no_false": 102 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.11206896551724138, "npv": 0.7611940298507462, "sens": 0.28888888888888886, "spec": 0.4975609756097561, "youden": -0.21355013550135504, "accuracy": 0.46, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3932249322493225 } }, { "votes": 1, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 64, "matches": 9, "known": 45, "missed": 36, "counts": { "yes_true": 9, "yes_false": 55, "no_true": 36, "no_false": 150 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.140625, "npv": 0.8064516129032258, "sens": 0.2, "spec": 0.7317073170731707, "youden": -0.06829268292682933, "accuracy": 0.636, "balancedAccuracy": 0.46585365853658534 } }, { "votes": 2, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 31, "matches": 4, "known": 45, "missed": 41, "counts": { "yes_true": 4, "yes_false": 27, "no_true": 41, "no_false": 178 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.12903225806451613, "npv": 0.8127853881278538, "sens": 0.08888888888888889, "spec": 0.8682926829268293, "youden": -0.04281842818428183, "accuracy": 0.728, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4785907859078591 } }, { "votes": 3, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 17, "matches": 5, "known": 45, "missed": 40, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 12, "no_true": 40, "no_false": 193 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.29411764705882354, "npv": 0.8283261802575107, "sens": 0.1111111111111111, "spec": 0.9414634146341463, "youden": 0.05257452574525745, "accuracy": 0.792, "balancedAccuracy": 0.5262872628726287 } }, { "votes": 4, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 22, "matches": 14, "known": 45, "missed": 31, "counts": { "yes_true": 14, "yes_false": 8, "no_true": 31, "no_false": 197 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.6363636363636364, "npv": 0.8640350877192983, "sens": 0.3111111111111111, "spec": 0.9609756097560975, "youden": 0.27208672086720864, "accuracy": 0.844, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6360433604336043 } } ], "pareto": [ { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2 }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 3 }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3 }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 4 } ] }, "strict": { "models": [ { "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "label": "Sonnet 5.5", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 60, "transportAttemptCount": 60, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": true, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": false, "R42639736|H2": true, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": false, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": true, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": false, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": false, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": true, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": true, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": false, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": true, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": false, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [ "R42608398|H1", "R42608398|H2", "R42608398|H3", "R42608398|H4", "R42608398|H5", "R42647119|H1", "R42647119|H2", "R42647119|H3", "R42647119|H4", "R42647119|H5", "R42664348|H1", "R42664348|H2", "R42664348|H3", "R42664348|H4", "R42664348|H5", "R42723546|H1", "R42723546|H2", "R42723546|H3", "R42723546|H4", "R42723546|H5", "R42725837|H1", "R42725837|H2", "R42725837|H3", "R42725837|H4", "R42725837|H5", "R42759510|H1", "R42759510|H2", "R42759510|H3", "R42759510|H4", "R42759510|H5", "R42810392|H1", "R42810392|H2", "R42810392|H3", "R42810392|H4", "R42810392|H5", "R42822442|H1", "R42822442|H2", "R42822442|H3", "R42822442|H4", "R42822442|H5", "R42826184|H1", "R42826184|H2", "R42826184|H3", "R42826184|H4", "R42826184|H5", "R42839094|H1", "R42839094|H2", "R42839094|H3", "R42839094|H4", "R42839094|H5" ], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "single_json_with_prose" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": true, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": false, "R42639736|H2": true, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": false, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": true, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": false, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": true, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": false, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": true, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": true, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": true, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": false, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": true, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": false, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 47, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 198 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06, "npv": 0.99, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8081632653061225, "youden": 0.40816326530612246, "accuracy": 0.804, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7040816326530612 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.04319327731092437, "npv": 0.012900763358778655, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2857142857142857, "youden": 0.48571428571428565, "accuracy": 0.28400000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.24285714285714283 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1276595744680851, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.09545495718050065, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9748743718592965, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03109613268143506, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7877551020408163, "hi": 0.8285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.22177377176407065, "hi": 0.34979423868312753, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.19028340080971662, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.23686787968199327, "hi": 0.9585467790355009, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.78, "hi": 0.828, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.22000000000000008, "hi": 0.348, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4048582995951417, "hi": 0.9092741935483871, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11843393984099664, "hi": 0.47927338951775045, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gpt-6-astra", "label": "GPT-6 Astra", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 50, "transportAttemptCount": 56, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": true, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": false, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": false, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": false, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": false, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": true, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": false, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": false, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": false, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": true, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": false, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": false, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": true, "R42647635|H1": false, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": false, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": false, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": true, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": true, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": false, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": false, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": false, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": false, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": false, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": false, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": false, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": false, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": false, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": true, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": false, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gpt-5.6-sol" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 44, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 201 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10204081632653061, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.8204081632653061, "youden": 0.8204081632653062, "accuracy": 0.824, "balancedAccuracy": 0.9102040816326531 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.08523409363745499, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.2979591836734693, "youden": 0.8979591836734694, "accuracy": 0.30399999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4489795918367347 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.022727272727272728, "hi": 0.1875, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.02127659574468085, "hi": 0.161416652276066, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2259380483196113, "hi": 0.36991869918699183, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.31451612903225823, "hi": 1.3319838056680162, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.792, "hi": 0.856, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.23199999999999998, "hi": 0.37599999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8934426229508197, "hi": 0.926530612244898, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.15725806451612911, "hi": 0.6659919028340081, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gemini-4-argon-high", "label": "Gemini 4 Argon High", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 50, "transportAttemptCount": 55, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": true, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": false, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": true, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": true, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": false, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": true, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": true, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": false, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": false, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": false, "R42581103|H4": true, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": false, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": false, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": true, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": true, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": false, "R42627902|H4": false, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": false, "R42639736|H5": false, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": false, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": true, "R42642521|H1": false, "R42642521|H2": false, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": false, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": true, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": false, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": false, "R42663085|H3": false, "R42663085|H4": false, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": false, "R42664348|H2": false, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": false, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": false, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": false, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": false, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": false, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": false, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": false, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": false, "R42749700|H4": false, "R42749700|H5": false, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": false, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": true, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": false, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": false, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": false, "R42775698|H1": false, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": false, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": false, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": false, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": true, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": false, "R42810392|H3": false, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": false, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": true, "R42811497|H5": false, "R42821663|H1": false, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": false, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": false, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": false, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": false, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": false, "R42839094|H5": true, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": false, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": false, "R42842666|H5": true, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": false, "R42858183|H4": false, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": true, "R42806945|H2": false, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": false, "R42806945|H5": false, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": false, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": false, "R42808804|H5": false, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": false, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": false, "R42669067|H1": false, "R42669067|H2": false, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": false, "R42811065|H2": false, "R42811065|H3": false, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": false, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": false, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "gemini-4-argon-medium" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 53, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.05357142857142857, "npv": 0.9896907216494846, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.7836734693877551, "youden": 0.38367346938775504, "accuracy": 0.78, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6918367346938775 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.036764705882352935, "npv": 0.012591485008263237, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2612244897959183, "youden": 0.46122448979591824, "accuracy": 0.26, "balancedAccuracy": 0.23061224489795912 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.11320754716981132, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01060876623376623, "hi": 0.09555061069982893, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9732620320855615, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.010102291955083787, "hi": 0.03731343283582089, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7427385892116183, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.18698512296326275, "hi": 0.33333333333333326, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.21052631578947367, "hi": 0.8097165991902835, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.35102040816326524, "hi": 1.2685865412870996, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.816, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.18000000000000005, "hi": 0.33599999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.39473684210526316, "hi": 0.9048582995951417, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.17551020408163262, "hi": 0.6342932706435498, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "grok-4.5", "label": "Grok 4.5", "valid": 250, "invalid": [], "calls": 51, "transportAttemptCount": 53, "strictForecasts": { "R42581103|H1": true, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": true, "R42581103|H4": false, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": true, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": true, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": true, "R42639736|H5": true, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": true, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": true, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": true, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": true, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": true, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": true, "R42664348|H2": true, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": true, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": true, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": true, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": true, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": true, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": true, "R42749700|H4": true, "R42749700|H5": true, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": true, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": true, "R42775698|H1": true, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": true, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": true, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": true, "R42810392|H3": true, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": true, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": false, "R42811497|H5": true, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": true, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": true, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": true, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": true, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": true, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": true, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": true, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": true, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": true, "R42806945|H5": true, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": true, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": true, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": true, "R42669067|H2": true, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": true, "R42811065|H3": true, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": true, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": true, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "strictInvalid": [], "formatRecovered": [], "selections": [ { "id": "R42581103|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42581103|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42601407|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42605193|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42608398|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42627902|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42630044|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42639736|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642518|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42642521|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647119|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42647635|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42663085|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42664348|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42665751|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42689491|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42696595|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42698274|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42717261|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723546|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H1", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H2", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H3", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H4", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42725837|H5", "attempt": 2, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42736449|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42744804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42749700|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42758848|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42759510|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775695|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42775698|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42786310|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42805954|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42810392|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811497|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42821663|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42822442|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42826184|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42839094|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841227|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42842666|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42844664|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42853938|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42858183|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806945|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42723144|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42808804|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42585340|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42669067|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42811065|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42841610|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806003|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42806572|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H1", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H2", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H3", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H4", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" }, { "id": "R42748238|H5", "attempt": 1, "format": "strict_json" } ], "forecasts": { "R42581103|H1": true, "R42581103|H2": false, "R42581103|H3": true, "R42581103|H4": false, "R42581103|H5": false, "R42601407|H1": true, "R42601407|H2": false, "R42601407|H3": false, "R42601407|H4": true, "R42601407|H5": false, "R42605193|H1": true, "R42605193|H2": false, "R42605193|H3": false, "R42605193|H4": false, "R42605193|H5": false, "R42608398|H1": false, "R42608398|H2": false, "R42608398|H3": false, "R42608398|H4": false, "R42608398|H5": false, "R42627902|H1": false, "R42627902|H2": false, "R42627902|H3": true, "R42627902|H4": true, "R42627902|H5": false, "R42630044|H1": false, "R42630044|H2": true, "R42630044|H3": false, "R42630044|H4": false, "R42630044|H5": false, "R42639736|H1": true, "R42639736|H2": false, "R42639736|H3": false, "R42639736|H4": true, "R42639736|H5": true, "R42642518|H1": false, "R42642518|H2": true, "R42642518|H3": true, "R42642518|H4": false, "R42642518|H5": false, "R42642521|H1": true, "R42642521|H2": true, "R42642521|H3": true, "R42642521|H4": true, "R42642521|H5": false, "R42647119|H1": false, "R42647119|H2": false, "R42647119|H3": true, "R42647119|H4": false, "R42647119|H5": false, "R42647635|H1": true, "R42647635|H2": false, "R42647635|H3": true, "R42647635|H4": true, "R42647635|H5": true, "R42663085|H1": false, "R42663085|H2": true, "R42663085|H3": true, "R42663085|H4": true, "R42663085|H5": false, "R42664348|H1": true, "R42664348|H2": true, "R42664348|H3": false, "R42664348|H4": false, "R42664348|H5": true, "R42665751|H1": false, "R42665751|H2": true, "R42665751|H3": false, "R42665751|H4": true, "R42665751|H5": false, "R42689491|H1": true, "R42689491|H2": false, "R42689491|H3": true, "R42689491|H4": true, "R42689491|H5": false, "R42696595|H1": false, "R42696595|H2": false, "R42696595|H3": false, "R42696595|H4": true, "R42696595|H5": false, "R42698274|H1": true, "R42698274|H2": false, "R42698274|H3": true, "R42698274|H4": false, "R42698274|H5": false, "R42717261|H1": true, "R42717261|H2": true, "R42717261|H3": true, "R42717261|H4": false, "R42717261|H5": false, "R42723546|H1": false, "R42723546|H2": false, "R42723546|H3": false, "R42723546|H4": false, "R42723546|H5": true, "R42725837|H1": false, "R42725837|H2": true, "R42725837|H3": false, "R42725837|H4": false, "R42725837|H5": false, "R42736449|H1": false, "R42736449|H2": true, "R42736449|H3": false, "R42736449|H4": true, "R42736449|H5": false, "R42744804|H1": false, "R42744804|H2": false, "R42744804|H3": true, "R42744804|H4": false, "R42744804|H5": true, "R42749700|H1": false, "R42749700|H2": true, "R42749700|H3": true, "R42749700|H4": true, "R42749700|H5": true, "R42758848|H1": true, "R42758848|H2": false, "R42758848|H3": true, "R42758848|H4": false, "R42758848|H5": false, "R42759510|H1": false, "R42759510|H2": false, "R42759510|H3": true, "R42759510|H4": false, "R42759510|H5": false, "R42775695|H1": false, "R42775695|H2": true, "R42775695|H3": false, "R42775695|H4": true, "R42775695|H5": true, "R42775698|H1": true, "R42775698|H2": false, "R42775698|H3": true, "R42775698|H4": true, "R42775698|H5": false, "R42786310|H1": false, "R42786310|H2": false, "R42786310|H3": false, "R42786310|H4": true, "R42786310|H5": true, "R42805954|H1": true, "R42805954|H2": false, "R42805954|H3": false, "R42805954|H4": false, "R42805954|H5": false, "R42810392|H1": false, "R42810392|H2": true, "R42810392|H3": true, "R42810392|H4": true, "R42810392|H5": false, "R42811497|H1": true, "R42811497|H2": false, "R42811497|H3": false, "R42811497|H4": false, "R42811497|H5": true, "R42821663|H1": true, "R42821663|H2": false, "R42821663|H3": true, "R42821663|H4": false, "R42821663|H5": false, "R42822442|H1": false, "R42822442|H2": true, "R42822442|H3": true, "R42822442|H4": false, "R42822442|H5": true, "R42826184|H1": false, "R42826184|H2": true, "R42826184|H3": false, "R42826184|H4": false, "R42826184|H5": true, "R42839094|H1": false, "R42839094|H2": true, "R42839094|H3": false, "R42839094|H4": true, "R42839094|H5": false, "R42841227|H1": false, "R42841227|H2": true, "R42841227|H3": false, "R42841227|H4": false, "R42841227|H5": true, "R42842666|H1": false, "R42842666|H2": true, "R42842666|H3": true, "R42842666|H4": true, "R42842666|H5": false, "R42844664|H1": false, "R42844664|H2": false, "R42844664|H3": true, "R42844664|H4": true, "R42844664|H5": false, "R42853938|H1": false, "R42853938|H2": false, "R42853938|H3": true, "R42853938|H4": false, "R42853938|H5": false, "R42858183|H1": true, "R42858183|H2": false, "R42858183|H3": true, "R42858183|H4": true, "R42858183|H5": false, "R42806945|H1": false, "R42806945|H2": true, "R42806945|H3": false, "R42806945|H4": true, "R42806945|H5": true, "R42723144|H1": false, "R42723144|H2": false, "R42723144|H3": false, "R42723144|H4": true, "R42723144|H5": false, "R42808804|H1": true, "R42808804|H2": false, "R42808804|H3": true, "R42808804|H4": true, "R42808804|H5": true, "R42585340|H1": true, "R42585340|H2": true, "R42585340|H3": false, "R42585340|H4": false, "R42585340|H5": true, "R42669067|H1": true, "R42669067|H2": true, "R42669067|H3": false, "R42669067|H4": false, "R42669067|H5": true, "R42811065|H1": true, "R42811065|H2": true, "R42811065|H3": true, "R42811065|H4": false, "R42811065|H5": false, "R42841610|H1": false, "R42841610|H2": false, "R42841610|H3": false, "R42841610|H4": true, "R42841610|H5": true, "R42806003|H1": false, "R42806003|H2": false, "R42806003|H3": false, "R42806003|H4": false, "R42806003|H5": true, "R42806572|H1": true, "R42806572|H2": true, "R42806572|H3": true, "R42806572|H4": false, "R42806572|H5": false, "R42748238|H1": false, "R42748238|H2": false, "R42748238|H3": true, "R42748238|H4": false, "R42748238|H5": false }, "parentResultReused": false, "sourceGenerator": false, "originalReferenceJudge": false, "judgeRelationships": { "sameModelJudges": [], "sameCompanyJudges": [ "grok-4.7" ] }, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 105, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 140 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.045454545454545456, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5714285714285714, "youden": 0.5714285714285714, "accuracy": 0.58, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7857142857142857 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.028647822765469826, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.048979591836734615, "youden": 0.6489795918367346, "accuracy": 0.05999999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3244897959183673 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.009708737864077669, "hi": 0.08411214953271028, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00182682296274136, "hi": 0.060561861601341596, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5185185185185185, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.016393442622950838, "hi": 0.11523824099581662, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.5185185185185186, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.06827309236947787, "hi": 1.0846774193548387, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.528, "hi": 0.632, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.124, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7592592592592593, "hi": 0.8125, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.034136546184738936, "hi": 0.5423387096774194, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "coin": { "method": "Original saved claude-opus-5-5/N per-hypothesis coin decisions reused unchanged by task and generation index; never redrawn", "sourceSha256": "e2d9b19dd08bf214671712a12e4709140ecb0a9903edbfd800c909e08b208547", "tosses": [ { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42581103", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42581103|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42601407", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42601407|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42605193", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42605193|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42608398", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42608398|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42627902", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42627902|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42630044", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42630044|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42639736", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42639736|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642518", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642518|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42642521", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42642521|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647119", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647119|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42647635", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42647635|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42663085", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42663085|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42664348", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42664348|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42665751", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42665751|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42689491", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42689491|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42696595", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42696595|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42698274", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42698274|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42717261", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42717261|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42723546", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723546|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42725837", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42725837|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42736449", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42736449|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42744804", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42744804|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42749700", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42749700|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42758848", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42758848|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42759510", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42759510|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775695", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775695|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42775698", "id": "H5", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42775698|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42786310", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42786310|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42805954", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42805954|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42810392", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42810392|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42811497", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811497|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42821663", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42821663|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42822442", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42822442|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42826184", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42826184|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42839094", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42839094|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42841227", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841227|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42842666", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42842666|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H4", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42844664", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42844664|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42853938", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42853938|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42858183", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42858183|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-16T23:20:31.519Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H3", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42806945", "id": "H5", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806945|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H4", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42723144", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42723144|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T21:05:20.877Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H1", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42808804", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42808804|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42585340", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42585340|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H2", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42669067", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42669067|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H1", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42811065", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42811065|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T22:15:29.810Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H1", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H2", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H3", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42841610", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42841610|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H2", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H3", "index": 1, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H4", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806003", "id": "H5", "index": 0, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806003|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H1", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H2", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H3", "index": 3, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H4", "index": 2, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42806572", "id": "H5", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42806572|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H1", "index": 2, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|2", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H2", "index": 4, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|4", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H3", "index": 0, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|0", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H4", "index": 3, "yes": false, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|3", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" }, { "task": "R42748238", "id": "H5", "index": 1, "yes": true, "originalKey": "claude-opus-5-5|N|R42748238|1", "tossedAt": "2026-10-18T23:17:19.659Z" } ], "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0, "npv": 0, "sens": 0, "spec": 0, "youden": 0, "accuracy": 0, "balancedAccuracy": 0 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true } } } } }, "common": { "hypotheses": 250, "sources": 50, "ids": [ "R42581103|H1", "R42581103|H2", "R42581103|H3", "R42581103|H4", "R42581103|H5", "R42601407|H1", "R42601407|H2", "R42601407|H3", "R42601407|H4", "R42601407|H5", "R42605193|H1", "R42605193|H2", "R42605193|H3", "R42605193|H4", "R42605193|H5", "R42608398|H1", "R42608398|H2", "R42608398|H3", "R42608398|H4", "R42608398|H5", "R42627902|H1", "R42627902|H2", "R42627902|H3", "R42627902|H4", "R42627902|H5", "R42630044|H1", "R42630044|H2", "R42630044|H3", "R42630044|H4", "R42630044|H5", "R42639736|H1", "R42639736|H2", "R42639736|H3", "R42639736|H4", "R42639736|H5", "R42642518|H1", "R42642518|H2", "R42642518|H3", "R42642518|H4", "R42642518|H5", "R42642521|H1", "R42642521|H2", "R42642521|H3", "R42642521|H4", "R42642521|H5", "R42647119|H1", "R42647119|H2", "R42647119|H3", "R42647119|H4", "R42647119|H5", "R42647635|H1", "R42647635|H2", "R42647635|H3", "R42647635|H4", "R42647635|H5", "R42663085|H1", "R42663085|H2", "R42663085|H3", "R42663085|H4", "R42663085|H5", "R42664348|H1", "R42664348|H2", "R42664348|H3", "R42664348|H4", "R42664348|H5", "R42665751|H1", "R42665751|H2", "R42665751|H3", "R42665751|H4", "R42665751|H5", "R42689491|H1", "R42689491|H2", "R42689491|H3", "R42689491|H4", "R42689491|H5", "R42696595|H1", "R42696595|H2", "R42696595|H3", "R42696595|H4", "R42696595|H5", "R42698274|H1", "R42698274|H2", "R42698274|H3", "R42698274|H4", "R42698274|H5", "R42717261|H1", "R42717261|H2", "R42717261|H3", "R42717261|H4", "R42717261|H5", "R42723546|H1", "R42723546|H2", "R42723546|H3", "R42723546|H4", "R42723546|H5", "R42725837|H1", "R42725837|H2", "R42725837|H3", "R42725837|H4", "R42725837|H5", "R42736449|H1", "R42736449|H2", "R42736449|H3", "R42736449|H4", "R42736449|H5", "R42744804|H1", "R42744804|H2", "R42744804|H3", "R42744804|H4", "R42744804|H5", "R42749700|H1", "R42749700|H2", "R42749700|H3", "R42749700|H4", "R42749700|H5", "R42758848|H1", "R42758848|H2", "R42758848|H3", "R42758848|H4", "R42758848|H5", "R42759510|H1", "R42759510|H2", "R42759510|H3", "R42759510|H4", "R42759510|H5", "R42775695|H1", "R42775695|H2", "R42775695|H3", "R42775695|H4", "R42775695|H5", "R42775698|H1", "R42775698|H2", "R42775698|H3", "R42775698|H4", "R42775698|H5", "R42786310|H1", "R42786310|H2", "R42786310|H3", "R42786310|H4", "R42786310|H5", "R42805954|H1", "R42805954|H2", "R42805954|H3", "R42805954|H4", "R42805954|H5", "R42810392|H1", "R42810392|H2", "R42810392|H3", "R42810392|H4", "R42810392|H5", "R42811497|H1", "R42811497|H2", "R42811497|H3", "R42811497|H4", "R42811497|H5", "R42821663|H1", "R42821663|H2", "R42821663|H3", "R42821663|H4", "R42821663|H5", "R42822442|H1", "R42822442|H2", "R42822442|H3", "R42822442|H4", "R42822442|H5", "R42826184|H1", "R42826184|H2", "R42826184|H3", "R42826184|H4", "R42826184|H5", "R42839094|H1", "R42839094|H2", "R42839094|H3", "R42839094|H4", "R42839094|H5", "R42841227|H1", "R42841227|H2", "R42841227|H3", "R42841227|H4", "R42841227|H5", "R42842666|H1", "R42842666|H2", "R42842666|H3", "R42842666|H4", "R42842666|H5", "R42844664|H1", "R42844664|H2", "R42844664|H3", "R42844664|H4", "R42844664|H5", "R42853938|H1", "R42853938|H2", "R42853938|H3", "R42853938|H4", "R42853938|H5", "R42858183|H1", "R42858183|H2", "R42858183|H3", "R42858183|H4", "R42858183|H5", "R42806945|H1", "R42806945|H2", "R42806945|H3", "R42806945|H4", "R42806945|H5", "R42723144|H1", "R42723144|H2", "R42723144|H3", "R42723144|H4", "R42723144|H5", "R42808804|H1", "R42808804|H2", "R42808804|H3", "R42808804|H4", "R42808804|H5", "R42585340|H1", "R42585340|H2", "R42585340|H3", "R42585340|H4", "R42585340|H5", "R42669067|H1", "R42669067|H2", "R42669067|H3", "R42669067|H4", "R42669067|H5", "R42811065|H1", "R42811065|H2", "R42811065|H3", "R42811065|H4", "R42811065|H5", "R42841610|H1", "R42841610|H2", "R42841610|H3", "R42841610|H4", "R42841610|H5", "R42806003|H1", "R42806003|H2", "R42806003|H3", "R42806003|H4", "R42806003|H5", "R42806572|H1", "R42806572|H2", "R42806572|H3", "R42806572|H4", "R42806572|H5", "R42748238|H1", "R42748238|H2", "R42748238|H3", "R42748238|H4", "R42748238|H5" ], "excluded": [] }, "rules": [ { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 47, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 198 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06, "npv": 0.99, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8081632653061225, "youden": 0.40816326530612246, "accuracy": 0.804, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7040816326530612 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.04319327731092437, "npv": 0.012900763358778655, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2857142857142857, "youden": 0.48571428571428565, "accuracy": 0.28400000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.24285714285714283 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1276595744680851, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.09545495718050065, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9748743718592965, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03109613268143506, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7877551020408163, "hi": 0.8285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.22177377176407065, "hi": 0.34979423868312753, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.19028340080971662, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.23686787968199327, "hi": 0.9585467790355009, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.78, "hi": 0.828, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.22000000000000008, "hi": 0.348, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4048582995951417, "hi": 0.9092741935483871, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11843393984099664, "hi": 0.47927338951775045, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 44, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 201 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10204081632653061, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.8204081632653061, "youden": 0.8204081632653062, "accuracy": 0.824, "balancedAccuracy": 0.9102040816326531 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.08523409363745499, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.2979591836734693, "youden": 0.8979591836734694, "accuracy": 0.30399999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4489795918367347 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.022727272727272728, "hi": 0.1875, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.02127659574468085, "hi": 0.161416652276066, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2259380483196113, "hi": 0.36991869918699183, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.31451612903225823, "hi": 1.3319838056680162, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.792, "hi": 0.856, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.23199999999999998, "hi": 0.37599999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8934426229508197, "hi": 0.926530612244898, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.15725806451612911, "hi": 0.6659919028340081, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 70, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 65, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 180 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.07142857142857142, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.7346938775510204, "youden": 0.7346938775510203, "accuracy": 0.74, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8673469387755102 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0546218487394958, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.21224489795918366, "youden": 0.8122448979591835, "accuracy": 0.21999999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.40612244897959177 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.015151515151515152, "hi": 0.13432835820895522, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.013333333333333334, "hi": 0.10606242612672796, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6987951807228916, "hi": 0.7695473251028807, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.13820798040616386, "hi": 0.28340080971659914, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.6987951807228916, "hi": 0.7695473251028808, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.22983870967741948, "hi": 1.2442757590841214, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.704, "hi": 0.776, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.1479999999999999, "hi": 0.292, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8493975903614458, "hi": 0.8847736625514404, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11491935483870974, "hi": 0.6221378795420607, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 29, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 26, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 219 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10344827586206896, "npv": 0.9909502262443439, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8938775510204081, "youden": 0.4938775510204081, "accuracy": 0.888, "balancedAccuracy": 0.746938775510204 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.08664155317299334, "npv": 0.013850989603122588, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.37142857142857133, "youden": 0.5714285714285713, "accuracy": 0.368, "balancedAccuracy": 0.28571428571428564 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.21212121212121213, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.18104756065881628, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9771689497716894, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.032409704755455494, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8630705394190872, "hi": 0.9233870967741935, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.30241935483870963, "hi": 0.44081632653061226, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.10040160642570284, "hi": 0.907258064516129, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.32113821138211374, "hi": 1.047451245547665, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.856, "hi": 0.92, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.30000000000000004, "hi": 0.436, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4497991967871486, "hi": 0.9536290322580645, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.16056910569105687, "hi": 0.5237256227738325, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 53, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.05357142857142857, "npv": 0.9896907216494846, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.7836734693877551, "youden": 0.38367346938775504, "accuracy": 0.78, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6918367346938775 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.036764705882352935, "npv": 0.012591485008263237, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2612244897959183, "youden": 0.46122448979591824, "accuracy": 0.26, "balancedAccuracy": 0.23061224489795912 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.11320754716981132, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01060876623376623, "hi": 0.09555061069982893, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9732620320855615, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.010102291955083787, "hi": 0.03731343283582089, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7427385892116183, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.18698512296326275, "hi": 0.33333333333333326, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.21052631578947367, "hi": 0.8097165991902835, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.35102040816326524, "hi": 1.2685865412870996, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.816, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.18000000000000005, "hi": 0.33599999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.39473684210526316, "hi": 0.9048582995951417, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.17551020408163262, "hi": 0.6342932706435498, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 75, "matches": 4, "known": 5, "missed": 1, "counts": { "yes_true": 4, "yes_false": 71, "no_true": 1, "no_false": 174 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.05333333333333334, "npv": 0.9942857142857143, "sens": 0.8, "spec": 0.710204081632653, "youden": 0.510204081632653, "accuracy": 0.712, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7551020408163265 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.036526610644257704, "npv": 0.017186477644492992, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.18775510204081625, "youden": 0.5877551020408162, "accuracy": 0.19199999999999995, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2938775510204081 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.013157894736842105, "hi": 0.10228001165501155, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.004905953213473541, "hi": 0.07802808325533907, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9823529411764705, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03998387424557156, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6652892561983471, "hi": 0.7520325203252033, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.11157024793388426, "hi": 0.26251644736842084, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.05802968960863697, "hi": 0.7419354838709677, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.153225806451613, "hi": 1.1905734669694874, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.668, "hi": 0.752, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.11599999999999999, "hi": 0.26799999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5290148448043185, "hi": 0.8709677419354839, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0766129032258065, "hi": 0.5952867334847437, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 31, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 29, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 216 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06451612903225806, "npv": 0.9863013698630136, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.8816326530612245, "youden": 0.28163265306122454, "accuracy": 0.872, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6408163265306123 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.04770940634318244, "npv": 0.009202133221792308, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.35918367346938773, "youden": 0.35918367346938773, "accuracy": 0.352, "balancedAccuracy": 0.17959183673469387 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.15151515151515152, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.016884767774598283, "hi": 0.1275610995964234, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9683257918552036, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.008889593675307908, "hi": 0.02937103742713981, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.6666666666666666, "hi": 0.6666666666666666, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8512396694214877, "hi": 0.9109401528013581, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.290983606557377, "hi": 0.42741935483870963, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.1255060728744939, "hi": 0.8813294580127133, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.28551912568306004, "hi": 1.0148448043184883, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.84, "hi": 0.904, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.28400000000000003, "hi": 0.424, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.43724696356275305, "hi": 0.9406647290063567, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.14275956284153002, "hi": 0.5074224021592442, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 72, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 67, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 178 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06944444444444445, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.726530612244898, "youden": 0.726530612244898, "accuracy": 0.732, "balancedAccuracy": 0.863265306122449 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.05263772175536882, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.20408163265306123, "youden": 0.8040816326530612, "accuracy": 0.21199999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4020408163265306 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.015625, "hi": 0.1234953703703698, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.012446657183499285, "hi": 0.10148309049988152, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.680327868852459, "hi": 0.7673469387755102, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.12704918032786883, "hi": 0.2775510204081633, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.680327868852459, "hi": 0.7670682730923695, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.21457489878542516, "hi": 1.2510121457489878, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.688, "hi": 0.772, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.1359999999999999, "hi": 0.288, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8401639344262295, "hi": 0.8835341365461847, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.10728744939271258, "hi": 0.6255060728744939, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 33, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 30, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 215 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.09090909090909091, "npv": 0.9907834101382489, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8775510204081632, "youden": 0.4775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.872, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7387755102040816 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07410236822001529, "npv": 0.013684173497027552, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.35510204081632646, "youden": 0.5551020408163264, "accuracy": 0.352, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2775510204081632 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1875, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.00819672131147541, "hi": 0.16762780886690953, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9767441860465116, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.0067258627195169556, "hi": 0.03814016172506729, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8471074380165289, "hi": 0.9076385038060188, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2857142857142857, "hi": 0.4256219091240997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.11646586345381527, "hi": 0.8911290322580645, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.22403395784543323, "hi": 1.3493975903614457, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.84, "hi": 0.904, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.28, "hi": 0.424, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.44176706827309237, "hi": 0.9455645161290323, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.11201697892271661, "hi": 0.6746987951807228, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 86, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 81, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 164 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.05813953488372093, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.6693877551020408, "youden": 0.6693877551020408, "accuracy": 0.676, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8346938775510204 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.041332812194645296, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.14693877551020407, "youden": 0.746938775510204, "accuracy": 0.15600000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.373469387755102 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.0125, "hi": 0.10638297872340426, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.007200433223687353, "hi": 0.08347402985940618, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6204081632653061, "hi": 0.7154471544715447, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.06503406734472206, "hi": 0.22448979591836732, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.620408163265306, "hi": 0.7154471544715446, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.157258064516129, "hi": 1.194331983805668, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.628, "hi": 0.72, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.07200000000000006, "hi": 0.23199999999999998, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.810204081632653, "hi": 0.8577235772357723, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.0786290322580645, "hi": 0.597165991902834, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 45, "matches": 4, "known": 5, "missed": 1, "counts": { "yes_true": 4, "yes_false": 41, "no_true": 1, "no_false": 204 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.08888888888888889, "npv": 0.9951219512195122, "sens": 0.8, "spec": 0.8326530612244898, "youden": 0.6326530612244898, "accuracy": 0.832, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8163265306122449 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07208216619981327, "npv": 0.018022714578290855, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.310204081632653, "youden": 0.710204081632653, "accuracy": 0.31199999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3551020408163265 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.022222222222222223, "hi": 0.1702127659574468, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.014327242524916944, "hi": 0.14019116342189045, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9850746268656716, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.04077820783485811, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8089430894308943, "hi": 0.8577235772357723, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.24596774193548387, "hi": 0.37551020408163266, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.16734143049932526, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.2857142857142856, "hi": 1.3024193548387097, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.808, "hi": 0.86, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.248, "hi": 0.37599999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5836707152496626, "hi": 0.926530612244898, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.1428571428571428, "hi": 0.6512096774193549, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 24, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 22, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 223 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.08333333333333333, "npv": 0.9867256637168141, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.9102040816326531, "youden": 0.31020408163265323, "accuracy": 0.9, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6551020408163266 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0665266106442577, "npv": 0.009626427075592803, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.3877551020408163, "youden": 0.3877551020408164, "accuracy": 0.38, "balancedAccuracy": 0.1938775510204082 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.19047619047619047, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01680672268907563, "hi": 0.16666666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9694323144104804, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.008658008658008698, "hi": 0.02980436259143146, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.6666666666666666, "hi": 0.6666666666666666, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8790322580645161, "hi": 0.9392773769100169, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.31836734693877544, "hi": 0.4593495934959349, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.09638554216867468, "hi": 0.9068825910931175, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.25683060109289607, "hi": 1.0409552609455544, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.868, "hi": 0.932, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.30800000000000005, "hi": 0.452, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.45180722891566266, "hi": 0.9534412955465588, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.12841530054644804, "hi": 0.5204776304727772, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 105, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 140 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.045454545454545456, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5714285714285714, "youden": 0.5714285714285714, "accuracy": 0.58, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7857142857142857 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.028647822765469826, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.048979591836734615, "youden": 0.6489795918367346, "accuracy": 0.05999999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3244897959183673 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.009708737864077669, "hi": 0.08411214953271028, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00182682296274136, "hi": 0.060561861601341596, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5185185185185185, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.016393442622950838, "hi": 0.11523824099581662, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.5185185185185186, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.06827309236947787, "hi": 1.0846774193548387, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.528, "hi": 0.632, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.124, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7592592592592593, "hi": 0.8125, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.034136546184738936, "hi": 0.5423387096774194, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 123, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 118, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 127 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.04065040650406504, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5183673469387755, "youden": 0.5183673469387755, "accuracy": 0.528, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7591836734693878 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.02384368381498941, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": -0.004081632653061273, "youden": 0.5959183673469387, "accuracy": 0.008000000000000007, "balancedAccuracy": 0.29795918367346935 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008547008547008548, "hi": 0.07627118644067797, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.053110674155565786, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4634146341463415, "hi": 0.5748987854251012, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.07818930041152261, "hi": 0.06938775510204087, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.46341463414634143, "hi": 0.5748987854251011, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.016064257028112428, "hi": 1.0326530612244897, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.472, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.06799999999999995, "hi": 0.08000000000000002, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7317073170731707, "hi": 0.7874493927125505, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.008032128514056214, "hi": 0.5163265306122449, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 37, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 211 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.08108108108108109, "npv": 0.9906103286384976, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8612244897959184, "youden": 0.46122448979591835, "accuracy": 0.856, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7306122448979592 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06427435839200546, "npv": 0.013511091997276292, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.3387755102040816, "youden": 0.5387755102040815, "accuracy": 0.33599999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.26938775510204077 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.17073170731707318, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.13767483540389086, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9763004965019183, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03184402186448716, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8319672131147541, "hi": 0.8902439024390244, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.27710843373493976, "hi": 0.4008264462809918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.13306451612903225, "hi": 0.8782339291004245, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.29268292682926833, "hi": 1.0148448043184886, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.824, "hi": 0.888, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.2759999999999999, "hi": 0.39999999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4334677419354839, "hi": 0.9391169645502122, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.14634146341463417, "hi": 0.5074224021592443, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 120, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 115, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 130 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.041666666666666664, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5306122448979592, "youden": 0.5306122448979593, "accuracy": 0.54, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7653061224489797 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.024859943977591035, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.008163265306122436, "youden": 0.6081632653061225, "accuracy": 0.020000000000000018, "balancedAccuracy": 0.30408163265306126 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008695652173913044, "hi": 0.07758620689655173, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00032775173718186014, "hi": 0.054577081798083994, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4796747967479675, "hi": 0.5813174730107954, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.05737704918032793, "hi": 0.07407407407407407, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.47967479674796754, "hi": 0.5813008130081301, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.024096385542168752, "hi": 1.0408163265306123, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.492, "hi": 0.592, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.04400000000000004, "hi": 0.08799999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7398373983739838, "hi": 0.790650406504065, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.012048192771084376, "hi": 0.5204081632653061, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 39, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 34, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 211 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.1282051282051282, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.8612244897959184, "youden": 0.8612244897959185, "accuracy": 0.864, "balancedAccuracy": 0.9306122448979592 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.11139840551605257, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.3387755102040816, "youden": 0.9387755102040817, "accuracy": 0.344, "balancedAccuracy": 0.46938775510204084 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.030303030303030304, "hi": 0.23255813953488372, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.02857142857142857, "hi": 0.20588235294117646, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8237704918032787, "hi": 0.897119341563786, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2661290322580645, "hi": 0.4122448979591837, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.8237704918032787, "hi": 0.8971193415637861, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.3548387096774195, "hi": 1.3765182186234817, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.828, "hi": 0.9, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.272, "hi": 0.416, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.9118852459016393, "hi": 0.9485596707818931, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.17741935483870974, "hi": 0.6882591093117408, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 129, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 124, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 121 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.03875968992248062, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.49387755102040815, "youden": 0.4938775510204081, "accuracy": 0.504, "balancedAccuracy": 0.746938775510204 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.02195296723340499, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": -0.028571428571428636, "youden": 0.5714285714285713, "accuracy": -0.016000000000000014, "balancedAccuracy": 0.28571428571428564 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008064516129032258, "hi": 0.072992700729927, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.0004624169442677607, "hi": 0.049978169405413976, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4403292181069959, "hi": 0.5469387755102041, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.1016260162601626, "hi": 0.04471544715447162, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.44032921810699577, "hi": 0.546938775510204, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.01216426384911623, "hi": 1.0080971659919027, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.452, "hi": 0.556, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.08800000000000002, "hi": 0.05600000000000005, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7201646090534979, "hi": 0.773469387755102, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.006082131924558115, "hi": 0.5040485829959513, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 55, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 50, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 195 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.09090909090909091, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.7959183673469388, "youden": 0.7959183673469388, "accuracy": 0.8, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8979591836734694 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07410236822001529, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.273469387755102, "youden": 0.873469387755102, "accuracy": 0.28, "balancedAccuracy": 0.436734693877551 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.02040816326530612, "hi": 0.16666666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.018759974684575288, "hi": 0.13886338325341793, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7611336032388664, "hi": 0.8285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.20562698307773658, "hi": 0.340080971659919, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.7611336032388665, "hi": 0.8285714285714287, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.29032258064516125, "hi": 1.3052208835341366, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.768, "hi": 0.832, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.21200000000000008, "hi": 0.34400000000000003, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8805668016194332, "hi": 0.9142857142857144, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.14516129032258063, "hi": 0.6526104417670683, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 25, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 22, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 223 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.12, "npv": 0.9911111111111112, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.9102040816326531, "youden": 0.510204081632653, "accuracy": 0.904, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7551020408163265 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.10319327731092437, "npv": 0.014011874469889829, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.3877551020408163, "youden": 0.5877551020408162, "accuracy": 0.384, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2938775510204081 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.2413793103448276, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.21129450280112044, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9775784753363229, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03255882773867964, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8785425101214575, "hi": 0.9392712550607287, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.31983805668016196, "hi": 0.45679012345679015, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.08130081300813008, "hi": 0.9236947791164658, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.338709677419355, "hi": 1.0634278002699056, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.872, "hi": 0.936, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.31999999999999995, "hi": 0.452, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.45934959349593496, "hi": 0.9618473895582329, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.1693548387096775, "hi": 0.5317139001349528, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 121, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 116, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 129 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.04132231404958678, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5265306122448979, "youden": 0.526530612244898, "accuracy": 0.536, "balancedAccuracy": 0.763265306122449 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.02451559136051115, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.004081632653061162, "youden": 0.6040816326530613, "accuracy": 0.016000000000000014, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3020408163265306 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008771929824561403, "hi": 0.07692307692307693, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00006774149844194534, "hi": 0.054398885165014205, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.4715447154471545, "hi": 0.5813008130081301, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.0653061224489796, "hi": 0.07317073170731708, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.4715447154471546, "hi": 0.5813008130081301, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.01636835061893624, "hi": 1.0410468528637928, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.484, "hi": 0.588, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.052000000000000046, "hi": 0.08399999999999996, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7357723577235773, "hi": 0.790650406504065, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.00818417530946812, "hi": 0.5205234264318964, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 45, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 42, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 203 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06666666666666667, "npv": 0.9902439024390244, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8285714285714286, "youden": 0.4285714285714286, "accuracy": 0.824, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7142857142857143 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.04985994397759104, "npv": 0.013144665797803046, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.30612244897959184, "youden": 0.5061224489795918, "accuracy": 0.30399999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2530612244897959 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.13727180527383342, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.008849557522123894, "hi": 0.12014190446650122, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9748743718592965, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.008407141171092893, "hi": 0.037741247059303, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7909836065573771, "hi": 0.8641975308641975, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2333232931726907, "hi": 0.3765182186234817, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.16194331983805665, "hi": 0.8532852165256346, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.295316882065516, "hi": 1.3115749651556383, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.784, "hi": 0.864, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.22799999999999998, "hi": 0.376, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4190283400809717, "hi": 0.9266426082628173, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.147658441032758, "hi": 0.6557874825778192, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 131, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 126, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 119 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.03816793893129771, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.4857142857142857, "youden": 0.48571428571428577, "accuracy": 0.496, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7428571428571429 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.02136121624222208, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": -0.03673469387755107, "youden": 0.563265306122449, "accuracy": -0.02400000000000002, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2816326530612245 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008, "hi": 0.07142857142857142, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.0007010976273271359, "hi": 0.04930196606944661, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.42857142857142855, "hi": 0.5443548387096774, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.11382113821138207, "hi": 0.03704086317722681, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.4283509700176367, "hi": 0.5443548387096775, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.024132821609016752, "hi": 1.004032258064516, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.44, "hi": 0.552, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.10000000000000003, "hi": 0.05199999999999999, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7141754850088183, "hi": 0.7721774193548387, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.012066410804508376, "hi": 0.502016129032258, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 57, "matches": 4, "known": 5, "missed": 1, "counts": { "yes_true": 4, "yes_false": 53, "no_true": 1, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.07017543859649122, "npv": 0.9948186528497409, "sens": 0.8, "spec": 0.7836734693877551, "youden": 0.583673469387755, "accuracy": 0.784, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7918367346938775 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0533687159074156, "npv": 0.01771941620851958, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.2612244897959183, "youden": 0.6612244897959182, "accuracy": 0.264, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3306122448979591 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.017857142857142856, "hi": 0.12962962962962962, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.009884974838245868, "hi": 0.10548419753702987, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9840425531914894, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.040322580645161255, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7479338842975206, "hi": 0.8170731707317073, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.19421487603305787, "hi": 0.326530612244898, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.13495276653171384, "hi": 0.8089430894308944, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.23335349595101712, "hi": 1.2661290322580645, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.748, "hi": 0.816, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.19600000000000006, "hi": 0.32800000000000007, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5674763832658569, "hi": 0.9044715447154472, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11667674797550856, "hi": 0.6330645161290323, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 28, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 26, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 219 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.07142857142857142, "npv": 0.9864864864864865, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.8938775510204081, "youden": 0.29387755102040813, "accuracy": 0.884, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6469387755102041 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0546218487394958, "npv": 0.009387249845265178, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.37142857142857133, "youden": 0.37142857142857133, "accuracy": 0.364, "balancedAccuracy": 0.18571428571428567 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.16666666666666666, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01680672268907563, "hi": 0.14285714285714285, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.96875, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.008751896332672354, "hi": 0.029513463613618854, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.6666666666666666, "hi": 0.6666666666666666, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8636363636363636, "hi": 0.9233870967741935, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.30364372469635637, "hi": 0.43902439024390244, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.11353312925841805, "hi": 0.8940393230462917, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.2734978208446715, "hi": 1.0273224043715845, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.852, "hi": 0.916, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.29600000000000004, "hi": 0.43200000000000005, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.44323343537079096, "hi": 0.9470196615231459, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.13674891042233575, "hi": 0.5136612021857923, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 126, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 121, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 124 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.03968253968253968, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5061224489795918, "youden": 0.5061224489795917, "accuracy": 0.516, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7530612244897958 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.02287581699346405, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": -0.016326530612244983, "youden": 0.5836734693877549, "accuracy": -0.0040000000000000036, "balancedAccuracy": 0.29183673469387744 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.008333333333333333, "hi": 0.07377049180327869, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.00014133347819788501, "hi": 0.05145845448084251, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.45081967213114754, "hi": 0.5614881113670233, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.08571428571428574, "hi": 0.05306122448979589, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.4508196721311475, "hi": 0.5614754098360657, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.004032258064516014, "hi": 1.0202429149797572, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.46, "hi": 0.572, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.07200000000000006, "hi": 0.06400000000000006, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7254098360655737, "hi": 0.7807377049180328, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.002016129032258007, "hi": 0.5101214574898786, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 61, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 56, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 189 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.08196721311475409, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.7714285714285715, "youden": 0.7714285714285714, "accuracy": 0.776, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8857142857142857 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.06516049042567847, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.24897959183673468, "youden": 0.8489795918367345, "accuracy": 0.256, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4244897959183673 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.018518518518518517, "hi": 0.14492753623188406, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.017241379310344827, "hi": 0.1206896551724138, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7336065573770492, "hi": 0.8065843621399177, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.17479674796747968, "hi": 0.32098765432098764, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.7336065573770492, "hi": 0.8064516129032258, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.26275997453310695, "hi": 1.2931726907630523, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.74, "hi": 0.808, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.18000000000000005, "hi": 0.328, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8668032786885246, "hi": 0.9032258064516129, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.13137998726655348, "hi": 0.6465863453815262, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 28, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 25, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 220 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10714285714285714, "npv": 0.990990990990991, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8979591836734694, "youden": 0.49795918367346936, "accuracy": 0.892, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7489795918367347 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.09033613445378151, "npv": 0.013891754349769636, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.3755102040816326, "youden": 0.5755102040816326, "accuracy": 0.372, "balancedAccuracy": 0.2877551020408163 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.21875, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.008064516129032258, "hi": 0.19908024207593164, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9772727272727273, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.006337932633553111, "hi": 0.0382859768658971, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8658536585365854, "hi": 0.9294605809128631, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.30645161290322576, "hi": 0.4453551046290424, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.09638554216867468, "hi": 0.9140661592505854, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.20449105568153195, "hi": 1.3724696356275303, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.86, "hi": 0.924, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.30000000000000004, "hi": 0.444, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.45180722891566266, "hi": 0.9570330796252927, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.10224552784076597, "hi": 0.6862348178137652, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 1, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 134, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 129, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 116 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.03731343283582089, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.47346938775510206, "youden": 0.47346938775510194, "accuracy": 0.484, "balancedAccuracy": 0.736734693877551 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.020506710146745263, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": -0.048979591836734726, "youden": 0.5510204081632651, "accuracy": -0.03600000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.27551020408163257 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.007751937984496124, "hi": 0.06976744186046512, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.0011124698507551723, "hi": 0.04790212504980602, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.41735537190082644, "hi": 0.5306122448979592, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.125, "hi": 0.02479338842975204, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.4173553719008265, "hi": 0.5306122448979593, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.03614457831325302, "hi": 0.9893834597649859, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.428, "hi": 0.54, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.11199999999999999, "hi": 0.03999999999999998, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7086776859504132, "hi": 0.7653061224489797, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.01807228915662651, "hi": 0.49469172988249294, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 70, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 65, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 180 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.07142857142857142, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.7346938775510204, "youden": 0.7346938775510203, "accuracy": 0.74, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8673469387755102 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.0546218487394958, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.21224489795918366, "youden": 0.8122448979591835, "accuracy": 0.21999999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.40612244897959177 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.015873015873015872, "hi": 0.1282051282051282, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.013705952595529921, "hi": 0.10441324398841548, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.6979591836734694, "hi": 0.7692307692307693, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.1422764227642277, "hi": 0.27935222672064774, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.6979591836734693, "hi": 0.7692307692307692, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.22323779664922153, "hi": 1.254032258064516, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.704, "hi": 0.772, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.14800000000000002, "hi": 0.288, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8489795918367347, "hi": 0.8846153846153846, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11161889832461076, "hi": 0.627016129032258, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 39, "matches": 4, "known": 5, "missed": 1, "counts": { "yes_true": 4, "yes_false": 35, "no_true": 1, "no_false": 210 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10256410256410256, "npv": 0.995260663507109, "sens": 0.8, "spec": 0.8571428571428571, "youden": 0.657142857142857, "accuracy": 0.856, "balancedAccuracy": 0.8285714285714285 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.08575737987502693, "npv": 0.01816142686588762, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.3346938775510203, "youden": 0.7346938775510202, "accuracy": 0.33599999999999997, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3673469387755101 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.02564102564102564, "hi": 0.1951219512195122, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.01833098521862824, "hi": 0.16323362267150804, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9855072463768116, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.0409949790985096, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0.3333333333333333, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8292682926829268, "hi": 0.8861788617886179, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2674897119341564, "hi": 0.4016064257028113, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.19568151147098511, "hi": 0.8806584362139918, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.310483870967742, "hi": 1.328435123926138, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.828, "hi": 0.884, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.2719999999999999, "hi": 0.4, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.5978407557354926, "hi": 0.9403292181069959, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.155241935483871, "hi": 0.664217561963069, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 4, "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 22, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 20, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 225 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.09090909090909091, "npv": 0.9868421052631579, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.9183673469387755, "youden": 0.31836734693877555, "accuracy": 0.908, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6591836734693878 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.07410236822001529, "npv": 0.009742868621936518, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.39591836734693875, "youden": 0.39591836734693875, "accuracy": 0.388, "balancedAccuracy": 0.19795918367346937 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.20588235294117646, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01680672268907563, "hi": 0.1825414078674948, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9696969696969697, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.008547008547008517, "hi": 0.029951845344296176, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.6666666666666666, "hi": 0.6666666666666666, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.8866396761133604, "hi": 0.9471544715447154, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.32780082987551873, "hi": 0.4653061224489796, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.08584601873536303, "hi": 0.9153225806451613, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.2486338797814208, "hi": 1.04911464901219, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.876, "hi": 0.94, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.31999999999999995, "hi": 0.46, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4570769906323185, "hi": 0.9576612903225806, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.1243169398907104, "hi": 0.524557324506095, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "baselines": [ { "model": "claude-sonnet-5-5", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 50, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 47, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 198 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.06, "npv": 0.99, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.8081632653061225, "youden": 0.40816326530612246, "accuracy": 0.804, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7040816326530612 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.04319327731092437, "npv": 0.012900763358778655, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2857142857142857, "youden": 0.48571428571428565, "accuracy": 0.28400000000000003, "balancedAccuracy": 0.24285714285714283 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.1276595744680851, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.09545495718050065, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9748743718592965, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.03109613268143506, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.6666666666666667, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7877551020408163, "hi": 0.8285714285714286, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.22177377176407065, "hi": 0.34979423868312753, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.19028340080971662, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.23686787968199327, "hi": 0.9585467790355009, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.78, "hi": 0.828, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.22000000000000008, "hi": 0.348, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.4048582995951417, "hi": 0.9092741935483871, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.11843393984099664, "hi": 0.47927338951775045, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gpt-6-astra", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 49, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 44, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 201 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.10204081632653061, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.8204081632653061, "youden": 0.8204081632653062, "accuracy": 0.824, "balancedAccuracy": 0.9102040816326531 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.08523409363745499, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.2979591836734693, "youden": 0.8979591836734694, "accuracy": 0.30399999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4489795918367347 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.022727272727272728, "hi": 0.1875, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.02127659574468085, "hi": 0.161416652276066, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.2259380483196113, "hi": 0.36991869918699183, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.7868852459016393, "hi": 0.8530612244897959, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.31451612903225823, "hi": 1.3319838056680162, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.792, "hi": 0.856, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.23199999999999998, "hi": 0.37599999999999995, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.8934426229508197, "hi": 0.926530612244898, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.15725806451612911, "hi": 0.6659919028340081, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "gemini-4-argon-high", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 56, "matches": 3, "known": 5, "missed": 2, "counts": { "yes_true": 3, "yes_false": 53, "no_true": 2, "no_false": 192 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.05357142857142857, "npv": 0.9896907216494846, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.7836734693877551, "youden": 0.38367346938775504, "accuracy": 0.78, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6918367346938775 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.036764705882352935, "npv": 0.012591485008263237, "sens": 0.19999999999999996, "spec": 0.2612244897959183, "youden": 0.46122448979591824, "accuracy": 0.26, "balancedAccuracy": 0.23061224489795912 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.11320754716981132, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": -0.01060876623376623, "hi": 0.09555061069982893, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 0.9732620320855615, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": -0.010102291955083787, "hi": 0.03731343283582089, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": -0.5714285714285714, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.7427385892116183, "hi": 0.8185483870967742, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": 0.18698512296326275, "hi": 0.33333333333333326, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": -0.21052631578947367, "hi": 0.8097165991902835, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": -0.35102040816326524, "hi": 1.2685865412870996, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.736, "hi": 0.816, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": 0.18000000000000005, "hi": 0.33599999999999997, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.39473684210526316, "hi": 0.9048582995951417, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": -0.17551020408163262, "hi": 0.6342932706435498, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } }, { "model": "grok-4.5", "comparison": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "left": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 110, "matches": 5, "known": 5, "missed": 0, "counts": { "yes_true": 5, "yes_false": 105, "no_true": 0, "no_false": 140 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.045454545454545456, "npv": 1, "sens": 1, "spec": 0.5714285714285714, "youden": 0.5714285714285714, "accuracy": 0.58, "balancedAccuracy": 0.7857142857142857 } }, "right": { "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 119, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 117, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 128 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.01680672268907563, "npv": 0.9770992366412213, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.5224489795918368, "youden": -0.0775510204081632, "accuracy": 0.52, "balancedAccuracy": 0.4612244897959184 } }, "differences": { "ppv": 0.028647822765469826, "npv": 0.022900763358778664, "sens": 0.6, "spec": 0.048979591836734615, "youden": 0.6489795918367346, "accuracy": 0.05999999999999994, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3244897959183673 }, "uncertainty": { "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap", "replicates": 10000, "intervals": { "left_ppv": { "lo": 0.009708737864077669, "hi": 0.08411214953271028, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_ppv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.042735042735042736, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_ppv": { "lo": 0.00182682296274136, "hi": 0.060561861601341596, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_npv": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": true }, "right_npv": { "lo": 0.950354609929078, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_npv": { "lo": 0, "hi": 0.049645390070921946, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_sens": { "lo": 1, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": true }, "right_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_sens": { "lo": 0, "hi": 1, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_spec": { "lo": 0.5185185185185185, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_spec": { "lo": 0.45901639344262296, "hi": 0.5860655737704918, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_spec": { "lo": -0.016393442622950838, "hi": 0.11523824099581662, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_youden": { "lo": 0.5185185185185186, "hi": 0.625, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_youden": { "lo": -0.5040650406504066, "hi": 0.5047996865510823, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_youden": { "lo": 0.06827309236947787, "hi": 1.0846774193548387, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "left_accuracy": { "lo": 0.528, "hi": 0.632, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "right_accuracy": { "lo": 0.456, "hi": 0.584, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "difference_accuracy": { "lo": -0.0040000000000000036, "hi": 0.124, "validReplicates": 10000, "degenerate": false }, "left_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.7592592592592593, "hi": 0.8125, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "right_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.24796747967479674, "hi": 0.7523998432755412, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false }, "difference_balancedAccuracy": { "lo": 0.034136546184738936, "hi": 0.5423387096774194, "validReplicates": 9946, "degenerate": false } } } } } ], "voteCounts": [ { "votes": 0, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 116, "matches": 0, "known": 5, "missed": 5, "counts": { "yes_true": 0, "yes_false": 116, "no_true": 5, "no_false": 129 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0, "npv": 0.9626865671641791, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.5265306122448979, "youden": -0.47346938775510206, "accuracy": 0.516, "balancedAccuracy": 0.26326530612244897 } }, { "votes": 1, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 64, "matches": 0, "known": 5, "missed": 5, "counts": { "yes_true": 0, "yes_false": 64, "no_true": 5, "no_false": 181 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0, "npv": 0.9731182795698925, "sens": 0, "spec": 0.7387755102040816, "youden": -0.2612244897959184, "accuracy": 0.724, "balancedAccuracy": 0.3693877551020408 } }, { "votes": 2, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 31, "matches": 1, "known": 5, "missed": 4, "counts": { "yes_true": 1, "yes_false": 30, "no_true": 4, "no_false": 215 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.03225806451612903, "npv": 0.9817351598173516, "sens": 0.2, "spec": 0.8775510204081632, "youden": 0.07755102040816331, "accuracy": 0.864, "balancedAccuracy": 0.5387755102040817 } }, { "votes": 3, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 17, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 15, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 230 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.11764705882352941, "npv": 0.9871244635193133, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.9387755102040817, "youden": 0.3387755102040817, "accuracy": 0.928, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6693877551020408 } }, { "votes": 4, "hypotheses": 250, "questions": 50, "selected": 22, "matches": 2, "known": 5, "missed": 3, "counts": { "yes_true": 2, "yes_false": 20, "no_true": 3, "no_false": 225 }, "rates": { "ppv": 0.09090909090909091, "npv": 0.9868421052631579, "sens": 0.4, "spec": 0.9183673469387755, "youden": 0.31836734693877555, "accuracy": 0.908, "balancedAccuracy": 0.6591836734693878 } } ], "pareto": [ { "members": [ "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 2 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 3 }, { "members": [ "claude-sonnet-5-5", "gpt-6-astra", "gemini-4-argon-high", "grok-4.5" ], "minVotes": 4 } ] } }, "interpretation": "Saved claude-opus-5-5/N hypotheses, evaluated against historical article-correspondence judgments by three judges from other companies. Unmatched generated hypotheses are not experimentally refuted. A predictor forecasts its own hypotheses only when it is also this cohort's generator; judge/company relationships of every predictor are disclosed per model. Five-claim request units differ from the one-claim balanced condition; PPVs cannot be directly compared across prevalences.", "generationBudgetMeaning": "32000 is a requested output parameter, not matched actual compute; provider services retain provider-specific internal reasoning. Full token usage and logical versus underlying transport counts are saved.", "omissionMeaning": "False-negative rate = FN/(TP+FN) among usable matched forecasts. Technical omissions are counted separately. It is not the error fraction among forecasts of yes." }