Live·Open questions in longevity research
Open Longevity · 501(c)(3)

The goal: longer lives

What should we do next?

A strategy connects what we believe, what we still need to know, and where we put the next effort.

Decision 01

Decide what kind of problem we are trying to solve

Working direction. Make the assumptions behind each longevity programme explicit. Different accounts of the difficulty call for different work; keep alternatives available until evidence distinguishes them.

Still unresolved. Which obstacles are failures of implementation, which require new methods, and which require a different account of ageing?

Next work. Use the spectrum to state the assumption behind a programme, then identify one observation that would make us change that assumption.

Reconsider when. A repeatable result that a simpler approach cannot explain, or a simpler intervention that achieves the required function, would change where effort belongs.

What do we do, depending on how difficult we believe ageing is?

The main obstacle is implementation

Then the priority changes: Prioritise testing whether an existing approach can deliver the intended function under the conditions that matter.

Next work: Specify the missing demonstration and its failure criteria before expanding the programme.

What this does not establish: This is an assumption to test. Availability of a drug or technique does not establish a longevity benefit.

Conditional reasoning · changing the assumption explores a possible strategy; it does not record a finding.

Decision 02

Choose the uncertainty to resolve next

Working direction. Choose tests for how much they can change a decision. Compare the predictions of several explanations before committing to one.

Still unresolved. Which feasible observation would separate the explanations, and would that distinction actually change the next intervention or study?

Next work. Compare the published predictions in the linked research example. Define shared conditions, controls and a decision rule before treating them as a study design.

Reconsider when. If explanations predict the same observation, the proposed test needs revision. If a result would not change the programme, another uncertainty may deserve priority.

Which hypotheses do we test first, and who decides?

Predictions differ under the same conditions

Then the priority changes: A comparison may reduce uncertainty between the explanations.

Next work: Check feasibility, controls and the interpretation of both positive and null results.

What this does not establish: Different predictions alone do not make the test valid or decisive.

Conditional reasoning · changing the assumption explores a possible strategy; it does not record a finding.

Decision 03

Put effort where it unlocks the next step

Working direction. Describe the chain from an idea to a useful capability. Identify the dependency that currently prevents the next step, and distinguish it from the other unfinished work.

Still unresolved. Is progress waiting on knowledge, a tool, execution capacity, resources or a decision outside the laboratory?

Next work. Name the blocked step, what it depends on, and the observable condition under which it could proceed.

Reconsider when. If removing the suspected obstacle does not allow the next step, revise the dependency map instead of repeating the same intervention.

Where exactly are the bottlenecks?

The missing piece is knowledge

Then the priority changes: More execution of the same plan will not resolve the missing explanation.

Next work: Formulate the gap and a test capable of reducing it.

What this does not establish: A gap in the current record is not proof that nobody has studied it.

Conditional reasoning · changing the assumption explores a possible strategy; it does not record a finding.

Decision 04

Make the value of a particular life part of the argument

Working direction. Connect the ambition of longer life to a person and to a concrete choice. Publish arguments whose assumptions can be challenged, rather than treating attention as agreement.

Still unresolved. Which arguments change durable choices, rather than only attracting attention?

Next work. State the choice an essay or visual argument is intended to change, and how we would tell whether that change occurred.

Reconsider when. If an argument attracts attention without changing the intended choice, revise the argument or the proposed route from understanding to action.

How does a culture come to care about one specific life?

The obstacle is understanding

Then the priority changes: Make the claim, uncertainty and consequence easier to inspect.

Next work: Clarify what a reader would need to understand before making the choice.

What this does not establish: Clarity does not establish agreement or a change in behaviour.

Conditional reasoning · changing the assumption explores a possible strategy; it does not record a finding.

Decision 05

Choose where action can change the outcome

Working direction. Work backwards from the next required capability to the actor and setting able to deliver it: research, clinical practice, institutions, resources or culture.

Still unresolved. Which setting controls the next dependency, and what can actually be changed there?

Next work. Connect the bottleneck to an actor, a decision and a verifiable milestone. Use that chain to choose where to act.

Reconsider when. Move the focus when the dependency is resolved or the proposed actor cannot change it. Keep the goal stable while revising the route.

In which arena is the fight against death actually fought?

The next dependency is scientific

Then the priority changes: Concentrate on the observation or capability that research can establish.

Next work: Define the question and a criterion for progress.

What this does not establish: A scientific result may leave institutional or practical barriers unresolved.

Conditional reasoning · changing the assumption explores a possible strategy; it does not record a finding.

Carry the decision into the research

A strategic question sets the direction. A scientific question identifies a specific uncertainty. Hypotheses propose explanations; an experiment tests their predictions. A result matters to the strategy when it changes what to do next.