{
  "version": "fixed-selection-generator-transfer-20261023-v1",
  "originalQuestionsSha256": "068c3136304a39fb31e7a68aa933ce5b4949a46d7f23d5b32fc67c53a688e8f0",
  "sources": [
    {
      "slug": "grok",
      "path": "https://eternalsearch.net/omega/two-stage-unanimous-20261023/report.json",
      "sha256": "e9d7a0e581e184070fa6963458a27253df442d530ecd28e0c5c628c7d0a0f365"
    },
    {
      "slug": "gemini",
      "path": "https://eternalsearch.net/omega/two-stage-unanimous-gemini-20261023/report.json",
      "sha256": "5f0a11da83a66029d3cf0c81f302dddf9ab99da19fe65f2183a66bdf2b253b12"
    },
    {
      "slug": "opus",
      "path": "https://eternalsearch.net/omega/two-stage-unanimous-opus-20261023/report.json",
      "sha256": "07ed307f6065d2f0b3f3b6eef06416b683a0fb4b4bf2c47c87b819a51bf40cae"
    }
  ],
  "rule": [
    "claude-sonnet-5-5",
    "gpt-6-astra",
    "gemini-4-argon-high",
    "grok-4.5"
  ],
  "first": "gpt-6-astra",
  "minVotes": 4,
  "cohorts": [
    {
      "slug": "grok",
      "summary": {
        "hypotheses": 240,
        "questions": 48,
        "selected": 19,
        "matches": 14,
        "known": 40,
        "missed": 26,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 14,
          "yes_false": 5,
          "no_true": 26,
          "no_false": 195
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.7368421052631579,
          "npv": 0.8823529411764706,
          "sens": 0.35,
          "spec": 0.975,
          "youden": 0.32499999999999996,
          "accuracy": 0.8708333333333333,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.6625
        }
      },
      "firstStage": {
        "hypotheses": 240,
        "questions": 48,
        "selected": 53,
        "matches": 25,
        "known": 40,
        "missed": 15,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 25,
          "yes_false": 28,
          "no_true": 15,
          "no_false": 172
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.4716981132075472,
          "npv": 0.9197860962566845,
          "sens": 0.625,
          "spec": 0.86,
          "youden": 0.4849999999999999,
          "accuracy": 0.8208333333333333,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.7424999999999999
        }
      },
      "intervals": {
        "left_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.5294117647058824,
          "hi": 0.9166666666666666,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.09917355371900827,
          "hi": 0.2644628099173554,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.37995881486949734,
          "hi": 0.7397084552137142,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_npv": {
          "lo": 0.8333333333333334,
          "hi": 0.9279279279279279,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_npv": {
          "lo": 0.7796385180740963,
          "hi": 0.9083333333333333,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_npv": {
          "lo": -0.016361860272410683,
          "hi": 0.08752063353798066,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_sens": {
          "lo": 0.25,
          "hi": 0.46153846153846156,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_sens": {
          "lo": 0.3870967741935484,
          "hi": 0.6923076923076923,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_sens": {
          "lo": -0.39024390243902435,
          "hi": 0.02564102564102566,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_spec": {
          "lo": 0.9526315789473684,
          "hi": 0.9947650796247819,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_spec": {
          "lo": 0.4307673267326733,
          "hi": 0.5598133971291867,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_spec": {
          "lo": 0.40908531124048375,
          "hi": 0.5480769230769231,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_youden": {
          "lo": 0.2210214482154063,
          "hi": 0.43924113699490086,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_youden": {
          "lo": -0.13679319002769436,
          "hi": 0.21395911418368543,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_youden": {
          "lo": 0.07499999999999996,
          "hi": 0.5099408557920496,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.825,
          "hi": 0.9125,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.44166666666666665,
          "hi": 0.5666666666666667,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.28322916666666664,
          "hi": 0.44999999999999996,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.6105107241077031,
          "hi": 0.7196205684974505,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.4316034049861528,
          "hi": 0.6069795570918427,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.03749999999999998,
          "hi": 0.2549704278960248,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "gemini",
      "summary": {
        "hypotheses": 250,
        "questions": 50,
        "selected": 19,
        "matches": 9,
        "known": 33,
        "missed": 24,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 9,
          "yes_false": 10,
          "no_true": 24,
          "no_false": 207
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.47368421052631576,
          "npv": 0.8961038961038961,
          "sens": 0.2727272727272727,
          "spec": 0.9539170506912442,
          "youden": 0.22664432341851692,
          "accuracy": 0.864,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.6133221617092585
        }
      },
      "firstStage": {
        "hypotheses": 250,
        "questions": 50,
        "selected": 51,
        "matches": 14,
        "known": 33,
        "missed": 19,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 14,
          "yes_false": 37,
          "no_true": 19,
          "no_false": 180
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.27450980392156865,
          "npv": 0.9045226130653267,
          "sens": 0.42424242424242425,
          "spec": 0.8294930875576036,
          "youden": 0.25373551180002796,
          "accuracy": 0.776,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.626867755900014
        }
      },
      "intervals": {
        "left_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.24975000000000003,
          "hi": 0.7,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.0714159067882472,
          "hi": 0.18110236220472442,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.1249793046357616,
          "hi": 0.5714594321624956,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_npv": {
          "lo": 0.8577586206896551,
          "hi": 0.9301385988228592,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_npv": {
          "lo": 0.7867537078934138,
          "hi": 0.9200088495575222,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_npv": {
          "lo": -0.011472242416290876,
          "hi": 0.09379644993398771,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_sens": {
          "lo": 0.12903225806451613,
          "hi": 0.42424242424242425,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_sens": {
          "lo": 0.31244612068965516,
          "hi": 0.6774193548387096,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_sens": {
          "lo": -0.4545454545454546,
          "hi": 0.029434046345810937,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_spec": {
          "lo": 0.9265925408855206,
          "hi": 0.9769585253456221,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_spec": {
          "lo": 0.39814590075512407,
          "hi": 0.5402843601895735,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_spec": {
          "lo": 0.4133211009174312,
          "hi": 0.5545454545454546,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_youden": {
          "lo": 0.07876170341286626,
          "hi": 0.38616086286544443,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_youden": {
          "lo": -0.23966013071895426,
          "hi": 0.15681118767918636,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_youden": {
          "lo": 0.018869724025974068,
          "hi": 0.5251141552511416,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.824,
          "hi": 0.9,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.404,
          "hi": 0.536,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.31999999999999995,
          "hi": 0.46799999999999997,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.5393808517064331,
          "hi": 0.6930804314327222,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.3801699346405229,
          "hi": 0.5784055938395932,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.009434862012987034,
          "hi": 0.2625570776255708,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "opus",
      "summary": {
        "hypotheses": 250,
        "questions": 50,
        "selected": 22,
        "matches": 14,
        "known": 45,
        "missed": 31,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 14,
          "yes_false": 8,
          "no_true": 31,
          "no_false": 197
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.6363636363636364,
          "npv": 0.8640350877192983,
          "sens": 0.3111111111111111,
          "spec": 0.9609756097560975,
          "youden": 0.27208672086720864,
          "accuracy": 0.844,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.6360433604336043
        }
      },
      "firstStage": {
        "hypotheses": 250,
        "questions": 50,
        "selected": 49,
        "matches": 21,
        "known": 45,
        "missed": 24,
        "counts": {
          "yes_true": 21,
          "yes_false": 28,
          "no_true": 24,
          "no_false": 177
        },
        "rates": {
          "ppv": 0.42857142857142855,
          "npv": 0.8805970149253731,
          "sens": 0.4666666666666667,
          "spec": 0.8634146341463415,
          "youden": 0.3300813008130081,
          "accuracy": 0.792,
          "balancedAccuracy": 0.6650406504065041
        }
      },
      "intervals": {
        "left_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.42857142857142855,
          "hi": 0.8181818181818182,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.09707954901346696,
          "hi": 0.24590794451450185,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_ppv": {
          "lo": 0.2782016989062473,
          "hi": 0.6606398013750954,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_npv": {
          "lo": 0.8157894736842105,
          "hi": 0.9075713180008845,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_npv": {
          "lo": 0.7424242424242424,
          "hi": 0.8714377289377289,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_npv": {
          "lo": 0.010103338698634865,
          "hi": 0.10023354666730712,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_sens": {
          "lo": 0.18177272727272728,
          "hi": 0.4418604651162791,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_sens": {
          "lo": 0.2954211229946524,
          "hi": 0.5849171652093879,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_sens": {
          "lo": -0.30000000000000004,
          "hi": 0.04878048780487804,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_spec": {
          "lo": 0.9346733668341709,
          "hi": 0.985076474065317,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_spec": {
          "lo": 0.45098039215686275,
          "hi": 0.5893719806763285,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_spec": {
          "lo": 0.37072737402500927,
          "hi": 0.5137646534148828,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_youden": {
          "lo": 0.13680928893296446,
          "hi": 0.40553531994140374,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_youden": {
          "lo": -0.20437340609060906,
          "hi": 0.12079962160662491,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_youden": {
          "lo": 0.13033311477250026,
          "hi": 0.5023468077649931,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.796,
          "hi": 0.892,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.444,
          "hi": 0.568,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_accuracy": {
          "lo": 0.26,
          "hi": 0.416,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "left_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.5684046444664822,
          "hi": 0.7027676599707019,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "right_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.3978132969546955,
          "hi": 0.5603998108033125,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        },
        "difference_balancedAccuracy": {
          "lo": 0.06516655738625013,
          "hi": 0.25117340388249654,
          "validReplicates": 2000,
          "degenerate": false
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "paired": {
    "questions": [
      "R42581103",
      "R42601407",
      "R42605193",
      "R42608398",
      "R42627902",
      "R42630044",
      "R42639736",
      "R42642518",
      "R42642521",
      "R42647119",
      "R42647635",
      "R42663085",
      "R42664348",
      "R42665751",
      "R42689491",
      "R42696595",
      "R42698274",
      "R42717261",
      "R42723546",
      "R42736449",
      "R42744804",
      "R42758848",
      "R42759510",
      "R42775695",
      "R42775698",
      "R42786310",
      "R42805954",
      "R42810392",
      "R42811497",
      "R42821663",
      "R42822442",
      "R42826184",
      "R42839094",
      "R42841227",
      "R42842666",
      "R42844664",
      "R42853938",
      "R42858183",
      "R42806945",
      "R42723144",
      "R42808804",
      "R42585340",
      "R42669067",
      "R42811065",
      "R42841610",
      "R42806003",
      "R42806572",
      "R42748238"
    ],
    "cohorts": [
      {
        "slug": "grok",
        "summary": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 19,
          "matches": 14,
          "known": 40,
          "missed": 26,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 14,
            "yes_false": 5,
            "no_true": 26,
            "no_false": 195
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.7368421052631579,
            "npv": 0.8823529411764706,
            "sens": 0.35,
            "spec": 0.975,
            "youden": 0.32499999999999996,
            "accuracy": 0.8708333333333333,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.6625
          }
        },
        "coin": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 123,
          "matches": 22,
          "known": 40,
          "missed": 18,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 22,
            "yes_false": 101,
            "no_true": 18,
            "no_false": 99
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.17886178861788618,
            "npv": 0.8461538461538461,
            "sens": 0.55,
            "spec": 0.495,
            "youden": 0.04499999999999993,
            "accuracy": 0.5041666666666667,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.5225
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "gemini",
        "summary": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 19,
          "matches": 9,
          "known": 32,
          "missed": 23,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 9,
            "yes_false": 10,
            "no_true": 23,
            "no_false": 198
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.47368421052631576,
            "npv": 0.8959276018099548,
            "sens": 0.28125,
            "spec": 0.9519230769230769,
            "youden": 0.23317307692307687,
            "accuracy": 0.8625,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.6165865384615384
          }
        },
        "coin": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 129,
          "matches": 16,
          "known": 32,
          "missed": 16,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 16,
            "yes_false": 113,
            "no_true": 16,
            "no_false": 95
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.12403100775193798,
            "npv": 0.8558558558558559,
            "sens": 0.5,
            "spec": 0.4567307692307692,
            "youden": -0.04326923076923084,
            "accuracy": 0.4625,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.4783653846153846
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "opus",
        "summary": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 20,
          "matches": 13,
          "known": 44,
          "missed": 31,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 13,
            "yes_false": 7,
            "no_true": 31,
            "no_false": 189
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.65,
            "npv": 0.8590909090909091,
            "sens": 0.29545454545454547,
            "spec": 0.9642857142857143,
            "youden": 0.2597402597402598,
            "accuracy": 0.8416666666666667,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.6298701298701299
          }
        },
        "coin": {
          "hypotheses": 240,
          "questions": 48,
          "selected": 112,
          "matches": 20,
          "known": 44,
          "missed": 24,
          "counts": {
            "yes_true": 20,
            "yes_false": 92,
            "no_true": 24,
            "no_false": 104
          },
          "rates": {
            "ppv": 0.17857142857142858,
            "npv": 0.8125,
            "sens": 0.45454545454545453,
            "spec": 0.5306122448979592,
            "youden": -0.014842300556586308,
            "accuracy": 0.5166666666666667,
            "balancedAccuracy": 0.49257884972170685
          }
        }
      }
    ],
    "pairs": [
      {
        "left": "grok",
        "right": "gemini",
        "differences": {
          "ppv": 0.2631578947368421,
          "sens": 0.06874999999999998
        },
        "intervals": {
          "ppv": {
            "lo": -0.002291507754894473,
            "hi": 0.5263157894736843,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          },
          "sens": {
            "lo": -0.09672128923736399,
            "hi": 0.24003731173774426,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "left": "grok",
        "right": "opus",
        "differences": {
          "ppv": 0.08684210526315783,
          "sens": 0.05454545454545451
        },
        "intervals": {
          "ppv": {
            "lo": -0.21176820728291318,
            "hi": 0.3730769230769231,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          },
          "sens": {
            "lo": -0.11179609732565399,
            "hi": 0.21209738514173998,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          }
        }
      },
      {
        "left": "gemini",
        "right": "opus",
        "differences": {
          "ppv": -0.17631578947368426,
          "sens": -0.01420454545454547
        },
        "intervals": {
          "ppv": {
            "lo": -0.4642857142857143,
            "hi": 0.10965514748409472,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          },
          "sens": {
            "lo": -0.21812321229938023,
            "hi": 0.18444530672579448,
            "validReplicates": 10000
          }
        }
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": {
      "method": "paired original-question cluster percentile bootstrap of between-generator differences, restricted to common complete questions",
      "replicates": 10000,
      "seed": 20261023,
      "coverage": "pointwise descriptive 95%; no multiplicity correction or equivalence test"
    }
  },
  "interpretation": "Rule chosen after inspection of Grok forecasts; Gemini and Opus forecasts collected after frozen rule. Historical labels and original questions are shared. Similar proportions or intervals containing zero do not establish equivalence or a stable probability on new laboratory outcomes."
}