5 open questions38 published rival explanations10 experiments proposed
01
What we are and are not claiming
Nothing on this site has been tested by us. A hypothesis here is a candidate explanation with a stated way of being wrong, not a finding. An experiment here is a written proposal, not a study that has been run. Publication on this site means an editor judged the page readable and honest. It does not mean the science is right.
Where a claim rests on a source, we show the source, and where a figure in a hypothesis has no source behind it, an automatic audit says so on the page rather than quietly letting it pass. Support in one experimental system, a mouse or a cell line, does not establish an effect on human lifespan, and we do not write as though it does.
02
From a goal to an experiment
Eight steps, each one owned by a different specialist. The numbering is the engine's own.
Step 1 · InitiatorRestate the goal as a question that can be worked on
A goal like "radically extend human lifespan" cannot be attacked directly. The first step rewrites it as a precise master question with a baseline, a horizon and a measure of success. This step is also where a goal can quietly become a different goal, so every run is audited afterwards against what the operator actually typed.
Step 2 · Immortalist ArchitectAsk what would have to not fail
Rather than listing things that would be nice to have, this step works backwards from failure: what are the ways the goal is defeated, and what would have to hold for each of those not to happen. The result is a small set of goal pillars, each one named after a failure mode.
Step 3 · Requirements EngineerBreak each pillar into requirements that can be checked
Five to nine atomic requirements per pillar. Atomic means a requirement can be satisfied or not without argument about what it meant.
Step 4 · Domain Mapper and Domain SpecialistFind the fields that own each requirement
Seven to twelve domains, chosen so they do not overlap and do not leave holes, and then fifteen to twenty-five scientific pillars inside each domain: the mechanisms the field actually has, how ready each one is, where it is fragile, and what could be imported from a neighbouring field.
Step 6 · Strategic Science OfficerFind where the knowledge runs out
This is where a question is born. The step descends to the points a literature search cannot answer, and types each one: a void where nothing is known, a fragile claim, a proxy that may not track what matters, or a clash between two established results.
Step 7 · Instantiation GatekeeperWrite the whole field of explanations, not the favourite
Four to seven rival mechanisms for every gap, drawn from different domains. The set is required to contain a heretic that contradicts the mainstream account and a transfer from an unrelated field. Nothing is dropped for being unpopular, and nothing is ranked at this stage.
Step 8 · Lead Investigative OfficerTurn the contest into questions an experiment can answer
Tactical questions, at least half of which have to discriminate: an explanation that predicts exactly what its rivals predict has nothing to contest and earns no experiment.
Step 9 · Lead Tactical EngineerSpecify the experiment, and what a null result would mean
Each experiment names a system, an intervention, a meter and a threshold. It also has to say what we would learn if the result comes out null — which is why every experiment on this site carries two readings rather than one.
03
The five ways knowledge runs out
Every question on this site is typed as one of these, because the five need different work.
Void
Nobody has looked. There is no result to argue with, only an absence.
Fragile
Something is claimed, but the evidence under it is thin enough that the claim could simply be wrong.
Proxy
What is being measured stands in for what matters, and it may not track it.
Clash
Two well-run studies disagree, and the field has not resolved which is right.
Adversarial
The question was written specifically to break the answer everyone expects.
04
Why we keep the losing explanations
An explanation earns its place by stating the single observation that would knock it out. Every pair of rivals under a question is bound to one observable that would come out differently under each, and that is how an experiment gets chosen: it is the one that separates the most rivals for the least money.
A rival that loses is not deleted. It may carry a weak mechanism and an excellent experiment, or a strong idea spoiled by one doubtful assumption. Both are worth keeping and worth reading, which is why the full set stays on the question page rather than only the front-runner.
Two parts of this design are not built yet, and we would rather say so than imply otherwise: rivals do not yet carry ratings from head-to-head comparison, and no new generation is bred from the parts of losing explanations. Every rival you read is a first generation.