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COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

Will TRIAD (rapamycin in aging dogs, 580 animals, 3-year design) show a survival or disease-onset benefit by 30 Jun 2028?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 1 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

40%
Happens 40%No 40%Other 20%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

Yes, on survival20.0%
Yes, on delayed disease onset20.0%
Mixed result20.0%
No benefit by 30 Jun 202820.0%
Other20.0%

Resolution criteria

An interim or final TRIAD report records a significant effect on survival or disease onset. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Dog Aging Project, publication.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

Dog Aging Project TRIAD

This is a Texas A&M / Dog Aging Project press release from Dec. 9, 2024 announcing NIH funding to expand TRIAD, a rapamycin trial in aging dogs. It is directly about the named trial and confirms its scale, purpose, and active progress, which is relevant background for forecasting whether a later interim or final report will show benefit by 2028-06-30.

Dog Aging Project Test of Rapamycin in Aging Dogs (TRIAD)

This is the Tufts/Cummings School clinical trial page for TRIAD, the rapamycin-in-aging-dogs study referenced in the prediction. It is directly on-topic because it documents the existence, recruitment status, and institutional framing of the trial whose interim or final results would determine resolution, though it does not itself report efficacy outcomes.

Dog Aging Project / TRIAD study

This is a University of Georgia clinical trial page describing the TRIAD rapamycin-in-aging-dogs study. It is directly relevant because it confirms the trial's existence and institutional context, though it does not report interim or final efficacy results on survival or disease onset.

TRIAD / Dog Aging Project

This appears to be a PMC-hosted publication describing the TRIAD rapamycin trial in aging dogs. A study-design paper is genuine, on-topic evidence because it confirms the trial’s existence, endpoints, and planned reporting framework that could later resolve whether survival or disease-onset benefit is shown by June 30, 2028.

Dog Aging Project

This appears to be a news article about the Dog Aging Project's TRIAD rapamycin study in dogs, describing the trial rationale, scale, and funding/status. It bears on the prognosis only indirectly as background on whether the study is active and credible, not as an interim or final efficacy report.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 1 · 40.0% chance40.0% chance
Jul 1Jul 1

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