In which year will a person with 1M+ Instagram followers upload their mind to a machine?
Chance it happens
71%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
"Sideloading" here means mind uploading — copying or transferring the contents of a person’s mind onto a machine. Resolves on the year in which a person with at least 1 million Instagram followers publicly and credibly demonstrates a functioning digital copy (whole-brain emulation) of their own mind running on a computer. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: public demonstration / mainstream news / peer review.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This appears to be a Georgia Tech news article discussing the scientific plausibility and constraints of whole-brain emulation or mind uploading. It is relevant as background evidence on whether credible mind uploading by 2035 is technically plausible, though it does not report an actual demonstration.
This is a Wikipedia overview of mind uploading that summarizes the concept, technical requirements, and related efforts such as brain preservation and consumer apps claiming partial 'upload' functionality. It is indirect background evidence on the state and plausibility of whole-brain emulation, but it does not document a qualifying public demonstration by a person with 1M+ Instagram followers.
This page summarizes Neuralink's brain-computer interface technology and the start of human trials, which is relevant as an enabling step toward high-bandwidth brain recording and decoding. It does not document mind uploading or whole-brain emulation, so it is only indirect evidence about the pace of progress toward the forecasted event.
This is a 2019 Peter Diamandis blog post discussing Neuralink and broader brain-computer interface progress, including speculation about connecting brains to AI. It is indirect but relevant background evidence because it reflects contemporary expert-facing expectations and milestones for brain-machine integration, though it is not a demonstration of mind uploading or whole-brain emulation.
This is a Forbes news/analysis article about brain-computer interfaces and startups combining brains with AI. It is indirect but relevant evidence because progress in BCIs and brain-digitization efforts bears on the feasibility and timeline for any future public demonstration of whole-brain emulation or mind uploading.
This is a July 21, 2024 IFLScience social post linking to a popular-science article about the feasibility of whole-brain emulation and mind uploading. It is not direct evidence of a demonstration, but it is on-topic background evidence that can inform expectations about whether such a milestone could occur by 2035.
This appears to be a news article about Neuralink’s first human brain-implant milestone. It is relevant as indirect evidence because advances in invasive brain-computer interfaces are a prerequisite technology for eventual whole-brain emulation or mind uploading, though it is far from a public demonstration of a digital copy of a mind.