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COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

Will the first human be dosed in a systemic (non-ophthalmic) reprogramming trial by 30 Jun 2028?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 1 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

60%
Happens 60%No 20%Other 20%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

Yes, by end of 202620.0%
Yes, in 202720.0%
Yes, in H1 202820.0%
No, not by 30 Jun 202820.0%
Other20.0%

Resolution criteria

The first dosed patient in a reprogramming trial with systemic or non-ocular delivery. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

ER-100

This is a real ClinicalTrials.gov interventional study for ER-100 in glaucoma/NAION, which appears to be an ophthalmic reprogramming-related human trial. It does not satisfy the prediction's systemic/non-ocular criterion, but it is still relevant because it shows human clinical progress in reprogramming and helps gauge how far the field is from a first systemic dosing by 30 Jun 2028.

Life Biosciences, Inc.

This is a company pipeline page stating that Life Biosciences received FDA authorization on January 15, 2026 to begin first-in-human studies of ER-100 in optic neuropathies. It bears on the forecast because it indicates active human reprogramming work is currently ophthalmic/ocular rather than systemic, which is directly relevant to whether and when a non-ophthalmic dosing milestone might occur.

This is a news article about FDA clearance of what it describes as the first human cellular reprogramming trial. It bears on the forecast because it is direct evidence that reprogramming has entered human clinical testing, although the prediction resolves only on the first systemic/non-ophthalmic dosing event and this page likely discusses an ocular-first milestone rather than resolution itself.

This is a scientific review/research publication on cellular reprogramming as a regenerative intervention. It is relevant because it establishes the technical and translational basis for partial reprogramming approaches that could progress into human systemic dosing trials, even though it is not itself a clinical trial record.

This is a Lifespan.io expert-roundup article summarizing views from multiple reprogramming-focused biotech leaders about the state of the field. It bears on the prognosis because it explicitly says first clinical trials are near and discusses movement from ocular work toward broader indications, but it is not itself a trial record or formal announcement of systemic dosing.

HanAll / Turn Biotechnologies

This appears to be a HanAll press/news page describing its collaboration with Turn Biotechnologies on epigenetic reprogramming. It is relevant because the disclosed rights are limited to ophthalmic and otic diseases, which bears on whether reprogramming programs are advancing toward systemic non-ophthalmic human dosing.

Daewoong Pharmaceutical / Turn Biotechnologies

This Instagram post reports that Daewoong Pharmaceutical acquired Turn Biotechnologies' ERA platform and mRNA-based partial reprogramming technology. It is indirect but relevant evidence because it suggests ongoing corporate investment and development activity in systemic partial reprogramming, which bears on the likelihood of a future human trial.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 1 · 60.0% chance60.0% chance
Jul 1Jul 1

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