Chance it happens
80%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) = the point at which remaining life expectancy rises by more than one year for each calendar year of research and medical progress. Resolves on the year that condition is first credibly judged to be met. Resolution horizon: 2100-12-31. Source: consensus of demographic / longevity-science reporting.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a news-style article summarizing Aubrey de Grey's views on longevity escape velocity. It directly bears on the prediction because it reports his stated timeline that LEV could be reached toward the latter part of the 2030s.
This is a news report on the FDA clearing Life Biosciences' IND for ER-100, an epigenetic partial cellular reprogramming therapy, with initial human ocular trials beginning in 2026 and possible expansion to liver disease by 2027-2028. It bears on LEV prognosis because it is concrete evidence that rejuvenation-oriented interventions are advancing from preclinical work into regulated human testing.
This is a peer-reviewed research article on chemical reprogramming aimed at reversing cellular aging. It bears on LEV prognosis because it is direct scientific evidence about whether aging can be biologically reversed, a core prerequisite for sustained gains in life expectancy.
This is a Fight Aging! news/blog post about Aubrey de Grey launching the Longevity Escape Velocity Foundation, an organization explicitly oriented around achieving LEV. It is relevant as contextual evidence about expert-led institutional effort and expectations in longevity science, though it does not by itself establish that LEV has been reached.
This appears to be a conference talk by Aubrey de Grey, a prominent longevity advocate, discussing rejuvenation and longevity at ARDD2024. Expert public statements from leading figures in biogerontology are relevant to forecasting when LEV might be judged achievable, even though this is not a formal publication or clinical result.
This appears to be a social post sharing or discussing an Aubrey de Grey interview on the SENS approach and longevity escape velocity. As a prominent longevity advocate's stated view on LEV, it is directly relevant as expert-opinion evidence bearing on expected timing, though it is not a formal scientific or demographic consensus source.
This appears to be a commentary/interview-style article on Calum Chace's site discussing Aubrey de Grey's views on radical life extension and the possibility that public recognition of major longevity gains could arrive soon. It bears on the prognosis indirectly because de Grey is a prominent longevity advocate whose timeline expectations are relevant to forecasts about when LEV might be judged achievable, though this is opinion-oriented rather than consensus demographic reporting.