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COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

In which year will a book about longevity sell over 1 million copies?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 2 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

71%
Happens 71%No 14%Other 14%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

By end of 202714.3%
2028–202914.3%
2030–203114.3%
2032–203314.3%
2034–203514.3%
Not by end of 203514.3%
Other14.3%

Resolution criteria

Resolves on the year in which a single book primarily about longevity / life extension first surpasses 1,000,000 total copies sold. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: publisher figures / NPD BookScan / NYT bestseller records.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

Goodreads

This is a Goodreads listing for Peter Attia's longevity book 'Outlive,' showing very high reader engagement and that it was a #1 New York Times bestseller. It does not provide sales figures, but it is direct evidence that a longevity-focused book has already achieved major mainstream traction relevant to the 1,000,000-copies question.

American Federation for Aging Research

This is an AFAR news item about David Sinclair's longevity book "Lifespan." It notes that the book had risen on The New York Times best-seller list after release, which is relevant as indirect evidence of strong commercial traction for a longevity-focused book.

David Sinclair

This is an Amazon retail listing for a book primarily about longevity and life extension. It is relevant because it confirms the existence and market positioning of a candidate title that could potentially reach the 1,000,000-copies-sold threshold, though the page itself does not provide sales figures.

This is a Wikipedia page for a major nonfiction book focused on longevity/life extension, making it directly relevant as a candidate title for the forecasted milestone. It is indirect evidence because the page identifies the work but, based on the provided excerpt, does not itself establish total copies sold above 1,000,000.

Outlive / Peter Attia

This is an Amazon product page for a prominent consumer book focused on longevity/life extension. It is relevant because it confirms a real candidate title in the category that could potentially cross 1,000,000 copies sold, though this page itself does not provide sales figures.

Peter Attia MD

This is the official landing page for Peter Attia's book Outlive, a book explicitly focused on longevity. It is relevant as primary evidence that a prominent longevity title exists and is being promoted, though the page does not provide sales figures or confirm 1,000,000 copies sold.

Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics

This appears to be a 2023 scholarly review article about a commercially successful aging/longevity book, likely David Sinclair's 'Lifespan'. It is indirect but relevant evidence because it documents that longevity-themed books can achieve major bestseller status, which bears on the plausibility of eventually surpassing 1,000,000 copies sold.

NAD.com

This appears to be a news/article page discussing David Sinclair's aging book and explicitly characterizing it as best-selling. It is relevant because it is evidence that longevity-themed books can achieve substantial commercial traction, though the excerpt does not provide a verifiable sales figure near the 1,000,000-copy threshold.

This is a Wikipedia page for a commercially published nonfiction book focused on aging and life extension. It is relevant because it documents an example of a prominent longevity book in the target category, though it does not itself establish million-copy sales.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 2 · 71.4% chance71.4% chance
Jul 2Jul 2

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