When will the first NEDD8-pathway drug with a longevity indication reach Phase 2b trials?
Chance it happens
67%Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
The first drug targeting the NEDD8 / neddylation pathway reaches a Phase 2b (or later) clinical trial carrying a stated aging, senescence, or geroprotection indication. The phase is read from the trial's registered phase field on ClinicalTrials.gov. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a 2018 peer-reviewed paper on pevonedistat, a first-in-class inhibitor of the neddylation/NEDD8 pathway. It is relevant because it confirms an actual drug in this pathway and links it to senescence biology, though the studied indication is renal cell carcinoma rather than aging or geroprotection.
This appears to be a peer-reviewed review article on NEDD8/NEDD8-activating-enzyme therapeutics, focused on oncology. It is relevant as background evidence on the maturity of the NEDD8 drug pipeline, but it does not itself show a longevity, senescence, or geroprotection indication or a qualifying Phase 2b trial.
This appears to be a PMC-hosted research publication about pevonedistat, a NEDD8-activating enzyme inhibitor, in canine melanoma. It is relevant because it confirms an actual NEDD8-pathway drug exists and is being studied, which informs pathway maturity, but it does not provide a longevity, senescence, or geroprotection indication.