Live·Verified funding discovery · 2026.2
874 grants · 19 open · 435 companies · 2640 concepts874 / 19 / 435 / 2640
COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

Will 'Replacing' (organ and cell replacement therapies) generate $1 billion by 30 July 2027?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 2 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

50%
Happens 50%No 50%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together.

Outcomes

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Resolution criteria

"Replacing" = the Replacing action-paradigm in Eternal Search’s 12-idea backbone: replacing organs, cells and tissues. Resolves Yes if cumulative revenue attributable to replacement-based longevity therapies exceeds US$1 billion on or before 2027-07-30. Resolution horizon: 2027-07-30. Source: company financials / industry reporting.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

This is a news report on Vertex discontinuing a diabetes cell-replacement therapy program after a trial failure. It bears on the prognosis for replacement-based therapies by indicating a setback for a prominent commercial cell-therapy effort, which weakens near-term revenue expectations for the sector before 2027-07-30.

BlueRock Therapeutics

This is a company announcement about a Nature publication reporting 18-month Phase 1 data for bemdaneprocel, a cell replacement therapy candidate for Parkinson’s disease. It is relevant because it evidences clinical progress in replacement-based therapies, which bears indirectly on the likelihood of future commercial revenue in the 'Replacing' paradigm by July 30, 2027.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

This is a ClinicalTrials.gov registration for a study of VX-880, a stem cell-derived islet cell replacement therapy. It is directly relevant to the 'Replacing' paradigm because it shows clinical progress of a replacement-based therapy that could contribute to future revenue, even though it does not itself report commercial sales.

BlueRock Therapeutics

This is a BlueRock Therapeutics announcement that the first patient has been treated in a pivotal Phase III trial of bemdaneprocel, an investigational cell therapy for Parkinson’s disease. It bears on the forecast because it is direct evidence that replacement-based cell therapies are advancing toward commercialization, which is relevant to whether the category could reach substantial revenue by 2027-07-30.

BlueRock Therapeutics

This is a BlueRock Therapeutics company update reporting 18-month positive trends from a phase I Parkinson's disease cell therapy trial. It is relevant because BlueRock is developing replacement-based cell therapies, and clinical progress is an important indicator for the likelihood of future commercial revenue in the replacing paradigm before 2027.

BlueRock Therapeutics

This is a ClinicalTrials.gov record for an early-stage trial of MSK-DA01, a cell replacement therapy. It is relevant because it is direct evidence of clinical development activity in replacement-based regenerative medicine, which bears on the likelihood of commercial revenue emerging by 2027, though it does not itself report revenue.

BlueRock Therapeutics LP

This is the official homepage of BlueRock Therapeutics, a company focused on cell therapy programs. It is relevant because it evidences active commercial and clinical development in replacement-based therapies, which bears indirectly on the likelihood of future cumulative revenue in the replacing category.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 2 · 50.0% chance50.0% chance
Jul 2Jul 2

Recent trades

No trades yet.