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COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

Who will be first to show positive Phase 2 data in cellular reprogramming by the end of 2029?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 1 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

67%
Happens 67%No 17%Other 17%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

Life Biosciences (ER-100)16.7%
NewLimit16.7%
Altos Labs16.7%
Retro Biosciences16.7%
No one by end of 202916.7%
Other company16.7%

Resolution criteria

The first company to publicly report Phase 2 results in which the sponsor claims a met efficacy or biomarker target. Resolution horizon: 2029-12-31. Source: company press release + ClinicalTrials.gov.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

Life Biosciences

This is a company press release announcing FDA IND clearance for ER-100, which it describes as the first cellular rejuvenation therapy using partial epigenetic reprogramming to enter human trials. It bears on the prediction because it establishes Life Biosciences as an active clinical contender, though the program is only entering Phase 1 rather than reporting Phase 2 data.

Life Biosciences

This is a company press release stating that Life Biosciences has dosed the first patient in a Phase 1 trial of ER-100 for optic neuropathies. It bears on the forecast because it is direct evidence that a cellular reprogramming program has entered human testing, informing whether Life could plausibly reach and report positive Phase 2 data by the end of 2029.

Life Biosciences, Inc.

This is Life Biosciences' pipeline page stating that ER-100 received FDA authorization on January 15, 2026 to begin first-in-human studies and that the current study is Phase I in optic neuropathies. It bears on the prediction because it shows the company is still at Phase I, implying no Phase 2 data yet and informing timeline feasibility for being first to positive Phase 2 results by 2029.

Life Biosciences

This is a company pipeline page stating that Life Biosciences' ER-100 (AAV2-OSK), described as an epigenetic restoration candidate, is in Phase I clinical trials for optic neuropathies. It bears on the prediction because it is direct sponsor evidence that a cellular reprogramming program exists but is still at an early clinical stage, informing the likelihood and timing of any Phase 2 readout by 2029.

Life Biosciences

This is a ClinicalTrials.gov registration for ER-100, a cellular reprogramming gene therapy candidate in glaucoma/optic neuropathy. It is on-topic because it documents a real human clinical program from a likely contender in the race to eventually report positive Phase 2 data, although this record itself appears to be an early-stage safety study rather than Phase 2 results.

Life Biosciences Inc.

This is a clinical trial listing for ER-100, described as an epigenetic therapy from Life Biosciences in optic nerve conditions. It bears on the prediction because it documents a cellular-reprogramming-related program and shows the sponsor is still in Phase 1 rather than Phase 2.

Life Biosciences

This Facebook post from The Alliance for Longevity Initiatives reports that the FDA cleared Life Biosciences' ER-100, described as a partial epigenetic reprogramming gene therapy, to enter Phase I trials for NAION and POAG. It is relevant because it places Life Biosciences in the clinical race in cellular reprogramming, though the evidence is early-stage and not Phase 2 efficacy data.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 1 · 66.7% chance66.7% chance
Jul 1Jul 1

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