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COMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CACOMPANIESCompanies rated · 435 (no change)PROJECTSProjects rated · 70 (no change)CATALOGUE874 grants in catalogue · 19 open right nowPOWERED BYOpen Longevity · 501(c)(3) · Sherman Oaks, CA
Longevity Prediction Market

When will therapeutic plasmapheresis confirm a reduction in biological age or mortality in a randomized trial?

approved openMultiple choicePrognosis made 1 Jul 2026Voting closes 1 Nov 20260 traders0.00 cr volume

Chance it happens

67%
Happens 67%No 17%Other 17%

Belief the predicted event happens at all — every “yes / by-a-date” outcome added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.

Outcomes

Before 202816.7%
2028–202916.7%
2030–203216.7%
2033 or later16.7%
Never in an RCT16.7%
Other16.7%

Resolution criteria

A randomized controlled trial reports a significant reduction in a validated biological-age marker or mortality after therapeutic plasmapheresis. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication, registry.

Evidence & context

Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.

NCT05004220 trial

This is a ClinicalTrials.gov registry entry for a trial explicitly studying whether therapeutic plasmapheresis affects aging biomarkers. It is directly relevant because the prediction resolves on evidence from a randomized trial showing reduced validated biological-age markers or mortality, and this trial could potentially generate such evidence.

Buck Institute

This is a news article summarizing a human trial reporting that plasma exchange lowered biological age markers. It is directly relevant because it suggests emerging evidence on the exact intervention and endpoint class in the prediction, though the page itself is not the peer-reviewed publication or registry record needed for resolution.

AMBAR trial

This is a news report about a randomized clinical trial of therapeutic plasmapheresis with albumin in Alzheimer disease showing cognitive and functional benefit. It bears on the prediction because it is human trial evidence on plasmapheresis, but it does not report reduced mortality or improvement in a validated biological-age marker, so it is not resolving evidence.

Buck Institute for Research on Aging

This appears to be a peer-reviewed human trial report on plasmapheresis/plasma exchange and aging-related biomarkers, matching the forecasting question's intervention and endpoint class. Secondary reporting describes a small controlled study in healthy older adults with sham comparison and reported reductions in biological-age measures, so it is directly relevant evidence even if the exact randomization/significance details need the full paper or registry to confirm.

This appears to be a GEN news article reporting human results that plasma exchange reduced biological-age measures. It bears on the forecast because it suggests clinical progress toward the resolution criterion, but the page itself is not the peer-reviewed randomized trial publication or registry entry needed for resolution.

Buck Institute for Research on Aging

This appears to be a peer-reviewed paper reporting results from a randomized/sham-controlled therapeutic plasma exchange study in older adults, analyzing multi-omics and biological-age biomarkers after treatment. That bears directly on the forecast because the resolution hinges on an RCT showing a significant reduction in a validated biological-age marker or mortality after therapeutic plasmapheresis.

This is a Transfusion News article about therapeutic plasma exchange as a potential intervention to reduce biological age. It is relevant because it discusses the intervention named in the forecast and likely summarizes current clinical or translational evidence, but it is not itself a randomized trial report or peer-reviewed primary publication.

AMBAR trial

This appears to be a peer-reviewed PMC article on therapeutic plasmapheresis/plasma exchange with albumin replacement, likely tied to the AMBAR Alzheimer's program. It bears on the forecast because it is human clinical evidence for the intervention class, although it does not itself appear to report a randomized reduction in biological age or mortality.

Belief over time — chance it happens

0255075100Jul 1 · 66.7% chance66.7% chance
Jul 1Jul 1

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