Predictions
Opening setting
80%Happens 80%No 10%Other 10%
No trades yet. This is the uniform opening setting, not a community forecast.
Probability that the predicted event happens at all: all yes / by-a-date outcomes added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Neglected or infectious disease10.0%
Aging or longevity10.0%
Oncology10.0%
Rare genetic disease10.0%
Immunology / autoimmune10.0%
Allergology / allergy10.0%
Neurology / neurodegeneration10.0%
Cardiovascular / metabolic10.0%
Won't disclose by close10.0%
Other area10.0%
Resolution criteria
The first disease area Anthropic publicly names for an internal program. Resolution horizon: 2027-12-31. Source: Anthropic.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
Anthropic
This appears to be a news item stating that Anthropic launched an internal drug discovery program targeting neglected diseases. If genuine, it directly bears on the prediction because it names a disease area for Anthropic's internal program.
Belief over time — chance it happens
Jul 1Jul 1
Recent trades
No trades yet.