When will a mammalian organ be successfully vitrified and transplanted?
Opening setting
71%No trades yet. This is the uniform opening setting, not a community forecast.
Probability that the predicted event happens at all: all yes / by-a-date outcomes added together. “Other” is tracked as its own third slice.
Outcomes
Resolution criteria
A mammalian organ recovered from a vitrified state (e.g. nanowarming) and transplanted with life-supporting function, described in a peer-reviewed paper or clinical case. Resolution horizon: 2040-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication, clinical registry.
Evidence & context
Trials, publications and reports our research found on this prognosis. Each links to the original source.
This is a 2023 peer-reviewed Nature Communications paper reporting that vitrified rat kidneys were nanowarmed, transplanted, and restored life-sustaining renal function in nephrectomized recipients after up to 100 days of storage. It is directly relevant because it appears to satisfy the core experimental milestone in a mammalian model for the forecasted organ vitrification-and-transplant outcome.
This is a 2019 University of Minnesota news feature describing organ cryopreservation/vitrification research aimed at extending donor organ viability for transplantation. It is not itself a peer-reviewed demonstration of successful vitrification and life-supporting transplant, but it is directly relevant background evidence on the state and trajectory of the field.
This appears to be a peer-reviewed review article hosted on PubMed Central about modern organ preservation, including cryopreservation/vitrification approaches relevant to eventual life-supporting organ transplantation after rewarming. It is not itself the resolving event, but it is directly relevant background evidence on technical progress and remaining barriers for the forecast.