В реальном времени·Открытые вопросы в исследованиях долголетия
Рынок прогнозов о долголетии

Когда первая компания в сфере долголетия достигнет оценки в 10 млрд долларов или выше?

ОткрытНесколько вариантов ответаПрогноз составлен 1 июл. 2026 г.Голосование завершится 1 нояб. 2026 г.1 участникОбъём торгов: 10.00 кредитов

Перевод готовится. До появления актуального перевода соответствующие фрагменты показаны на языке оригинала.

Вероятность события

67%
Произойдёт 67%Нет 17%Другой вариант 17%

Прогноз сообщества на основе сделок участников.

Вероятность того, что предсказанное событие вообще произойдёт: сумма вероятностей всех исходов «да» и исходов с наступлением события к определённой дате. Вариант «Другое» учитывается отдельно как третья доля.

Исходы

Altos16.7%
Retro16.7%
NewLimit16.7%
Life Biosciences16.7%
No one by close16.7%
Other company16.7%

Критерии определения результата

The first of the named companies with a disclosed post-money valuation of $10B or more. Resolution horizon: 2028-12-31. Source: PitchBook, press.

Данные и контекст

Испытания, публикации и отчёты, которые мы нашли при изучении этого прогноза. Для каждого материала указана ссылка на первоисточник.

Altos Labs

This is a September 4, 2021 MIT Technology Review news article about Altos Labs, a longevity-focused startup. It reports the company had raised at least $270 million, which is relevant baseline evidence for estimating whether and when a longevity company might later achieve a disclosed $10B+ post-money valuation.

Retro Biosciences

This is a news article about Retro Biosciences, a longevity-focused company, highlighting its disclosed $1.8 billion valuation and a clinical milestone in Alzheimer's. It bears on the prognosis because it provides a concrete recent valuation benchmark well below the $10B resolution threshold and context on progress that could affect future valuation growth.

Retro Biosciences

This is a Facebook post by STAT linking to a news report that Retro Biosciences raised funding at a disclosed $1.8 billion valuation. It is relevant because it provides a concrete, dated valuation datapoint for a longevity company, though it is well below the $10 billion resolution threshold.

Retro Biosciences

This is an official Retro Biosciences blog post announcing the initial close of a new financing round. Company financing announcements are directly relevant to the question because a disclosed post-money valuation of $10B+ would resolve the prediction if Retro is the first named longevity company to reach that threshold.

Altos Labs

This is a news report about Altos Labs launching with $3 billion in funding to pursue cellular rejuvenation. It does not disclose a $10B+ post-money valuation, but it is relevant background evidence on the scale, financing, and prominence of a leading longevity company that could plausibly reach that threshold.

Retro Biosciences

This is a news/analysis page discussing Retro Biosciences' reported 2026 valuation of about $1.8 billion. It is relevant as a valuation benchmark for a named longevity company, indicating it remains well below the $10B resolution threshold.

Altos Labs

This is a social-media news post reporting roughly $3 billion committed to Altos Labs, a longevity-focused company. It does not disclose a post-money valuation, but it is still relevant background evidence because it indicates unusually large investor backing for a named candidate in the race to a $10B+ valuation.

This appears to be a LinkedIn commentary post discussing a longevity-related startup at a disclosed $5B valuation despite lacking clinical data. It is relevant because it provides a concrete valuation datapoint below the $10B resolution threshold, which informs how close the sector may be to the forecasted milestone.

Оценка вероятности события во времени

02550751001 июл. · вероятность 66.7%1 июл. · вероятность 66.7%Вероятность 66.7%
1 июл.1 июл.

Последние сделки

YAКуплено 0.60 × Other company16.7%