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Как возрастное снижение NAD+ в мышечных стволовых клетках влияет на их способность восстанавливать мышцу после повреждения?

Finished in 37 min
  1. 1Four models propose 40 hypothesesDone40 of 40 hypothesesGPT-6 Astra: 10 hypothesesGrok 4.7: 10 hypothesesClaude Opus 5.5: 10 hypothesesGemini 4 Argon: 10 hypotheses
  2. 2GPT-6 Astra discards hypothesesDone36 discarded, 4 kept
  3. 3Three models cross-check the restDone0 of 4 selected
  4. 4Every hypothesis is compared with the literatureDone40 of 40 checked

Selected hypotheses

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All hypotheses

Every proposed hypothesis with the forecast of each model. Click a column header to sort.

No.▲Hypothesis▲Author▲GPT‑6 Astra▲Claude Opus 5.5▲Gemini 4 Argon▲Grok 4.7▲Result▲Literature▲
H5Age-related NAD+ depletion reduces muscle regeneration by uncoupling the muscle stem-cell circadian clock from the timing of injury-induced activation signals.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Insufficient NAD+-dependent SIRT1 activity alters clock-protein deacetylation, shifting the phase of activation competence relative to inflammatory and growth-factor signals. Cells consequently miss a permissive activation window even when their average daily energy supply remains adequate.

Prediction. The regenerative benefit of a short NAD+ precursor pulse should depend on circadian phase under matched total exposure. Aligning the pulse with the predicted activation window should outperform continuous delivery, and this timing advantage should disappear after muscle stem-cell-specific disruption of the core clock.

GPT-6 AstrayesnononoRejected in the cross-checkParts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H8Age-related cytosolic NAD+ depletion limits muscle stem-cell expansion through insufficient serine-derived nucleotide synthesis during the first regenerative cell cycle.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Low available NAD+ constrains the NAD+-dependent phosphoglycerate dehydrogenase reaction. Reduced serine synthesis limits one-carbon transfer into purines and thymidylate, causing replication stress before a major decline in cellular ATP becomes apparent.

Prediction. Isotope tracing should reveal reduced glucose-derived serine and nucleotide synthesis in NAD+-depleted activated cells. Nucleoside supplementation should rescue replication and regenerative contribution despite persistently low NAD+, whereas an intervention that restores ATP without restoring nucleotide supply should not.

GPT-6 AstrayesnoyesnoRejected in the cross-checkParts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H26Age-related NAD+ depletion in muscle stem cells causes injury-induced DNA repair to divert nuclear NAD+ away from SIRT6, leaving a persistent inflammatory enhancer state that impairs subsequent muscle regeneration.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. During activation, PARP1-dependent repair increases nuclear NAD+ demand. In aged cells with limited NAD+ availability, this transient demand prevents SIRT6-dependent removal of H3K9 acetylation at inflammatory enhancers, allowing inflammatory transcription to persist after DNA lesions have been repaired.

Prediction. Restoring nuclear NAD+ specifically during the initial repair period should normalize enhancer acetylation and improve lineage-traced regenerative contribution. This benefit should disappear after catalytic inactivation of SIRT6, despite comparable DNA repair, and delayed NAD+ restoration should be less effective.

GPT-6 AstrayesnononoRejected in the cross-checkNot found in published articles
H34Depletion of nucleolar NAD+ in aged activated MuSCs inactivates SIRT7, preventing the deacetylation of the RNA helicase DDX21 required to resolve rDNA R-loops during the injury-induced burst of ribosome biogenesis. This triggers nucleolar stress and stabilizes p53 via the RPL11-MDM2 pathway, arresting myoblast expansion.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Transitioning from quiescence to rapid proliferation requires a massive upregulation of RNA Polymerase I transcription across repetitive 47S rDNA arrays, which generates topological stress and cotranscriptional RNA-DNA hybrids (R-loops). In young MuSCs, NMNAT1-derived nucleolar NAD+ fuels SIRT7 to deacetylate and activate DDX21 to unwind rDNA R-loops; in aged MuSCs, nucleolar NAD+ scarcity leaves DDX21 hyperacetylated and inactive, causing catastrophic rDNA R-loop accumulation, nucleolar fragmentation, and release of free RPL11 to inhibit MDM2 and induce p53-mediated cell cycle arrest.

Prediction. DRIP-qPCR and immunofluorescence in aged MuSCs 48 hours post-injury will show dense R-loop accumulation specifically at 47S rDNA loci, hyperacetylated DDX21, and RPL11-MDM2 complex formation; targeting RNase H1 to the nucleolus or expressing a deacetylation-mimetic DDX21 mutant in aged MuSCs will prevent p53 activation and rescue myoblast proliferation.

Gemini 4 ArgonyesnononoRejected in the cross-checkParts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H1Aged muscle stem cells raise NAMPT to compensate for low NAD+, and this response sequesters phosphoribosyl pyrophosphate from de novo purine synthesis, preventing expansion of the transit-amplifying pool after injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NAMPT uses PRPP to convert nicotinamide to NMN. During the rapid cell-cycle burst, diversion of PRPP drops IMP, ATP, and GTP below the level needed for DNA replication even if NAD+ partly recovers.

Prediction. Mild NAMPT inhibition or PRPP supplementation increases EdU-positive myoblasts and regenerated fiber size in aged muscle while lowering NAD+ further. Purine nucleoside supplementation rescues clonal expansion with no rise in NAD+.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H2Age-related NAD+ depletion leaves an epigenetic defect in activated muscle stem cells through compensatory nicotinamide disposal, causing disproportionately poor regeneration after a second injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. The proposed response to low NAD+ is increased nicotinamide turnover and NNMT-dependent methylation of nicotinamide. This consumes S-adenosylmethionine, lowers methylation capacity, and prevents re-establishment of repressive chromatin at differentiation genes when surviving cells attempt to return to quiescence.

Prediction. Lineage-traced cells should show increased nicotinamide methylation flux, a reduced S-adenosylmethionine/S-adenosylhomocysteine ratio, and persistent accessibility of differentiation genes. Transient NNMT inhibition during return to quiescence should improve second-injury regeneration even when NAD+ is experimentally held at the same low level; absent NNMT expression or flux would reject the mechanism.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H3Aged SCs do not simply lose NAD+ synthesis — they reroute nicotinamide to 1-methylnicotinamide through induced NNMT, and NNMT induction is the proximal cause of the regenerative defect; inhibiting NNMT in aged SCs restores regeneration more effectively than supplying NAD+ precursors.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Injury-associated inflammatory signalling upregulates NNMT in aged SCs, which consumes both NAM (reducing salvage flux) and SAM (reducing methyl donor availability for H3K4/H3K27 methyltransferases and for PRMT-dependent myogenic signalling). The dual drain couples NAD+ loss to an aberrant methylation state that precursors cannot correct.

Prediction. Old SCs show elevated Nnmt mRNA and MNAM; SC-specific Nnmt knockout or a selective NNMT inhibitor restores SC NAD+, SAM/SAH ratio, MyoD induction and fibre regeneration in old mice, and outperforms equimolar NR. Forced NNMT overexpression in young SCs reduces regeneration even with NR co-treatment.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H4Cytosolic NAD+ depletion in aged MuSC-derived myoblasts halts trans-Golgi mono-ADP-ribosylation by PARP12, preventing the exocytic trafficking of the fusogen Myomaker to the plasma membrane. Consequently, aged myogenic progenitors successfully differentiate into Myogenin-positive myocytes after injury but fail to fuse into multinucleated regenerating myofibers.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. During terminal myogenic differentiation, the Golgi-resident mono-ADP-ribosyltransferase PARP12 requires relatively high cytosolic NAD+ concentrations (due to its high Km for NAD+) to mono-ADP-ribosylate the vesicular tether Golgin-97, which sorts Myomaker (TMEM8C) into Rab11a+ exocytic carriers. Age-related NAD+ decline selectively abolishes PARP12 catalytic activity while sparing lower-Km enzymes, trapping Myomaker in the trans-Golgi network and arresting regeneration at the mononucleated myocyte stage.

Prediction. Differentiating aged myoblasts will exhibit normal Myomaker mRNA and total protein levels but perinuclear Golgi retention of Myomaker alongside loss of Golgin-97 mono-ADP-ribosylation; expressing an engineered low-Km PARP12 variant in aged MuSCs will restore surface Myomaker localization and myotube fusion in vivo.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H6Age-related NAD+ loss in muscle stem cells is nuclear rather than uniform, and this nuclear deficit prevents local acetyl-CoA production at injury-responsive enhancers, blocking myogenic differentiation after damage.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. A fall in nuclear NMNAT1 relative to mitochondrial NMNAT3 moves NAD+ synthesis out of the nucleus. Nuclear ACSS2 and LDH then cannot maintain NAD+ or acetyl-CoA at chromatin, so H3K27ac fails on differentiation enhancers even when mitochondrial respiration is intact.

Prediction. Nucleus-targeted NMNAT1 restores H3K27ac at Myog and myosin enhancers and restores new myofiber formation while mitochondrial NAD+ and oxygen consumption stay low. Mitochondria-targeted NMNAT3 normalizes respiration but does not restore enhancer acetylation or regeneration.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H7Age-related NAD+ depletion in muscle stem cells (MuSCs) impairs primary cilium resorption upon injury by inactivating basal-body-localized SIRT2, thereby blocking asymmetric self-renewal divisions. Without timely cilium disassembly, activated MuSCs fail to establish planar-apical centrosomal polarity and undergo symmetric differentiation or mitotic arrest, depleting the reserve stem cell pool.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. In young quiescent MuSCs, injury cues trigger a local burst of SIRT2 activity at the ciliary basal body that requires cytosolic NAD+ to deacetylate alpha-tubulin and the depolymerizing kinesin KIF2A, driving rapid axonemal disassembly before mitosis. In aged MuSCs, reduced cytosolic NAD+ keeps KIF2A hyperacetylated and catalytically inactive, causing persistent primary cilia during G1/S transition, aberrant partitioning of mother-daughter centrioles, and loss of asymmetric Par3/p38-alpha/beta segregation.

Prediction. Live imaging of injured myofibers from aged mice will reveal persistent Arl13b+ cilia and hyperacetylated KIF2A in dividing Pax7+ cells; expressing a deacetylation-mimetic KIF2A mutant in aged or NAMPT-inhibited MuSCs will restore cilium resorption and rescue the generation of Pax7+/MyoD- self-renewing daughter cells without restoring bulk NAD+ levels.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Published results contradict it
H9The limiting NAD+ deficit in aged SCs is compartment-specific and nuclear: loss of NMNAT1-dependent nuclear NAD+ synthesis, not mitochondrial NAD+, starves chromatin-bound PARP1/SIRT6 at myogenic enhancers and prevents MYOD/MYF5 locus activation after injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Nuclear NAD+ is a kinetically separate pool maintained by NMNAT1. Its decline leaves PARP1 unable to complete ADP-ribosylation-dependent eviction of repressive complexes and SIRT6 unable to deacetylate H3K9/H3K56 at myogenic enhancers, so the enhancer landscape stays closed even when total cellular NAD+ is partially restored.

Prediction. Compartment-targeted NAD+ biosensors (nuclear vs mitochondrial PercevalHR/NAD-Snifit) show a selective nuclear drop in old SCs; nucleus-restricted NMNAT1 overexpression rescues MyoD induction and regeneration in old mice, while mitochondria-targeted NMNAT3 overexpression raises mitochondrial NAD+ and respiration without restoring regeneration.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H10Age-related NAD+ decline sensitizes newly activated MuSCs to myoglobin-iron-induced ferroptosis during the acute necrotic phase of muscle injury by starving plasma-membrane FSP1 (AIFM2) of NAD(P)H reducing equivalents. This results in selective loss of dividing myogenic progenitors within the first 48 hours post-injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Myofiber necrosis releases abundant heme and labile iron into the regenerative niche, creating intense lipid peroxidation pressure. Young activated MuSCs survive this microenvironment because cytosolic NAD+ fuels NAD kinase (NADK) and provides NADH/NADPH directly to plasma-membrane-localized FSP1 to reduce ubiquinone to radical-trapping ubiquinol; in aged MuSCs, NAD+ depletion exhausts the FSP1-CoQ10H2 antioxidant axis at the sarcolemma, triggering ferroptotic death before the first mitotic division.

Prediction. Aged MuSCs isolated 36 hours after cardiotoxin injury will exhibit high C11-BODIPY lipid peroxidation, an elevated oxidized-to-reduced CoQ10 ratio, and early cell death that is selectively prevented in vivo by liproxstatin-1 or MuSC-specific NADK overexpression, but not by caspase or RIPK1 inhibitors.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H11NAD+ depletion in aged muscle stem cells limits NAD-kinase-dependent NADPH supply, so amplifying myoblasts undergo ferroptosis within two days of injury rather than failing to activate or becoming senescent.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NADK phosphorylates NAD+ to NADP+, and pentose-phosphate flux then regenerates NADPH for GPX4. When NADPH falls, lipid peroxides accumulate selectively in progeny that have entered the cell cycle.

Prediction. Lipid peroxidation in aged muscle-stem-cell progeny precedes p16 induction and caspase activation. GPX4 overexpression or a lipophilic radical-trapping antioxidant restores regenerated fiber number despite persistently low NAD+ and low mitochondrial respiration, whereas senolytics, p16 deletion, and mitochondria-targeted antioxidants do not.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H12Aged muscle stem cells cannot convert the macrophage-derived acetate pulse that follows injury into histone acetylation because low nuclear NAD+ leaves ACSS2 acetylated and inactive.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. SIRT1 must deacetylate ACSS2 before ACSS2 can generate nuclear acetyl-CoA from acetate. Persistently acetylated ACSS2 leaves injury-responsive loci without H3K27ac despite abundant acetate.

Prediction. An acetylation-resistant, constitutively active ACSS2 mutant restores myogenic histone acetylation and regeneration in low-NAD+ aged muscle stem cells without raising NAD+. Acetate supplementation rescues young cells but not aged cells, and overexpression of wild-type ACSS2 does not rescue aged cells.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H13Aged muscle stem cells induce NNMT, which both diverts nicotinamide from NAD+ salvage and consumes S-adenosylmethionine, erasing H3K36me3 on myogenic genes and stalling transcriptional elongation during repair.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NNMT methylates nicotinamide to N1-methylnicotinamide, competing with NAMPT, and spends SAM required by SETD2. The resulting loss of H3K36me3 increases cryptic transcription through differentiation genes.

Prediction. Muscle-stem-cell deletion of NNMT restores H3K36me3 and regeneration even when NAD+ recovery is incomplete. Nicotinamide riboside restores NAD+ but not SAM, H3K36me3, or regeneration while NNMT remains high, whereas SAM supplementation restores H3K36me3 and regeneration only together with a modest NAD+ rescue.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H14Cytosolic NAD+ deficiency in aged MuSCs impairs SIRT2-dependent deacetylation of the V-ATPase subunit ATP6V1E1 during quiescence exit, preventing holoenzyme assembly on lysosomal membranes. The resulting failure of lysosomal acidification blocks autophagic flux and triggers lysosomal membrane permeabilization and cathepsin-mediated cleavage of Pax7.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. To exit quiescence, MuSCs require a rapid surge in autolysosomal degradation to remodel organelles and generate bioenergetic substrates. In young MuSCs, cytosolic NAD+ supports SIRT2-mediated deacetylation of ATP6V1E1 at Lys99, promoting reversible docking of the cytosolic V1 sector onto the membrane V0 sector to acidify lysosomes; in aged MuSCs, hyperacetylated ATP6V1E1 fails to assemble into functional V-ATPase complexes, leading to alkalinized, swollen autolysosomes that leak cathepsin B into the cytosol to degrade Pax7.

Prediction. Proximity ligation assays and ratiometric pH imaging in aged MuSCs 12 hours post-injury will reveal dissociated V1-V0 sectors, elevated lysosomal pH, and cytoplasmic cathepsin B activity; expressing a deacetylation-mimetic ATP6V1E1-K99R mutant in aged MuSCs will restore lysosomal acidification and preserve Pax7 protein levels independently of NAD+ repletion.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Published results contradict it
H15Injury transiently raises the NMN-to-NAD+ ratio in aged muscle stem cells enough to activate the NADase SARM1, which then collapses the remaining NAD+ and aborts the first regenerative division.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. SARM1 is allosterically activated by NMN when NAD+ is low. Aging reduces the NAD+ buffer, so an injury-induced NMN pulse that young cells tolerate crosses the SARM1 activation threshold and causes feed-forward NAD+ loss.

Prediction. Muscle-stem-cell deletion of SARM1 preserves NAD+ for the first 48 hours after injury and restores regeneration in aged mice, with little effect in young mice. An NMN-binding-deficient SARM1 mutant phenocopies the deletion, and lowering NAD+ in young cells aborts division only when SARM1 can still bind NMN.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H16Nuclear NAD+ decline in aged quiescent MuSCs reduces co-transcriptional 5'-NAD+ capping of basally transcribed myogenic commitment mRNAs, allowing them to escape DXO-mediated surveillance decay. This causes chronic, low-grade translation of MyoD1 in uninjured muscle, exhausting the deep quiescent state and blunting the regenerative burst after acute injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. In young MuSCs, high nuclear NAD+ serves as a non-canonical initiating nucleotide for RNA Polymerase II at poised myogenic loci such as Myod1 and Ccnd1, marking these leaky transcripts with a 5'-NAD+ cap that targets them for immediate nuclear degradation by the deNADding exonuclease DXO. Age-related nuclear NAD+ depletion shifts transcription initiation exclusively toward canonical m7G capping, stabilizing leaky Myod1 transcripts and driving premature niche exit prior to injury.

Prediction. NAD-cap sequencing (ONE-seq) of freshly isolated quiescent MuSCs will demonstrate a high ratio of 5'-NAD+ to m7G caps on Myod1 transcripts in young mice that is lost in aged mice, and conditional deletion of Dxo in young Pax7+ MuSCs will phenocopy age-associated loss of quiescence and regenerative failure.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H17Age-related NAD+ depletion reduces the return of activated muscle stem cells to their niche by impairing polarized integrin recycling during migration.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Reduced NAD+-dependent SIRT2 activity changes microtubule acetylation and the routing of recycling endosomes. This reduces polarized delivery of integrin alpha7-beta1 to the cell surface, weakening directed movement along the basal lamina and subsequent niche reoccupation.

Prediction. Restoring polarized integrin recycling should improve niche reoccupation and the response to a second injury while NAD+ remains low. Rescue should track integrin trafficking and migration directionality more closely than proliferation or mitochondrial respiration, and should be lost when alpha7-beta1 engagement is blocked.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1The literature check did not finish
H18Age-related loss of cytosolic NAD+ impairs muscle repair by disrupting the timing of DLL1–Notch communication between neighboring activated muscle stem cells.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Where NAD+ loss also lowers the cytosolic NAD+/NADH ratio, increased NADH-dependent recruitment of the transcriptional corepressor CtBP prolongs repression of DLL1. This changes the timing of ligand presentation between adjacent progenitors and disrupts the balance between differentiation and stem-cell replenishment.

Prediction. Restoring the cytosolic NAD+/NADH ratio should recover DLL1 dynamics and coordinated fate decisions, with little additional benefit after disrupting CtBP recruitment at the DLL1 regulatory region. Rescue should depend on cell contact and should be weaker when Notch stimulation is supplied continuously rather than with physiological timing.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H19Age-related NAD+ depletion selectively compromises the first post-injury division of muscle stem cells by preventing timely repression of ribosomal DNA transcription before replication.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Insufficient NAD+ limits SIRT7-dependent repression of ribosomal DNA transcription during cell-cycle re-entry. Excess transcription at replicating ribosomal DNA creates transcription–replication conflicts, generating nucleolar damage that reduces the number of viable regenerative progenitors.

Prediction. A brief, partial reduction of RNA polymerase I activity during the first S phase should reduce ribosomal DNA damage and restore clonal expansion without restoring NAD+. The same intervention after the first division should provide substantially less benefit, distinguishing this mechanism from a continuous energetic deficit.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H20Loss of NAD+ in aged SCs converts them into paracrine saboteurs of their own niche: NAD+-depleted SCs leak cGAS–STING-activating mitochondrial DNA and secrete a senescence-associated secretome that fibrotically reprograms neighbouring FAPs, so the regenerative failure is transmissible to young cells in the same muscle.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NAD+ loss destabilises the mitochondrial transcription/replication balance and opens mPTP/VDAC pores, releasing mtDNA to the cytosol. cGAS–STING activation in SCs induces an IL-6/TGF-β-skewed secretome that drives FAP fibrogenic differentiation, converting a cell-intrinsic metabolic deficit into niche-level fibrosis.

Prediction. Cytosolic mtDNA and STING phosphorylation are elevated in old SCs and reversed by NAD+ precursors; co-transplanting NAD+-depleted (Nampt-deleted) young SCs with wild-type young SCs impairs regeneration of the wild-type cells, and this transmissible defect is abolished by SC-specific Sting1 deletion or by TFAM-stabilising/mtDNA-release blockade without restoring NAD+.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H21Age-related NAD+ depletion in muscle stem cells promotes fibrosis by increasing progenitor-derived succinate signaling to fibro-adipogenic progenitors.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Reduced mitochondrial SIRT5 activity increases succinylation of enzymes controlling succinate turnover, causing activated myogenic progenitors to accumulate and export succinate. Extracellular succinate then activates SUCNR1-dependent profibrotic signaling in responsive fibro-adipogenic progenitors.

Prediction. Conditioned medium from NAD+-depleted myogenic progenitors should promote extracellular matrix production through a succinate-dependent effect. Fibro-adipogenic progenitor-specific SUCNR1 deletion should reduce this fibrosis and improve repair despite persistently low NAD+ in muscle stem cells; absence of functional SUCNR1 in the responding population would reject the proposed pathway.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H22Young muscle stem cells segregate NAMPT into the future self-renewing daughter, creating NAD+ asymmetry between sisters within an hour of mitosis, and aging abolishes this segregation so both daughters remain metabolically intermediate and poorly specified.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NAMPT is carried on polarized recycling endosomes that follow the older centrosome into the basal daughter. Age-related centrosome and endosome mis-segregation equalizes NAD+ biosynthetic capacity.

Prediction. An NAD+ biosensor reports sister-cell NAD+ asymmetry after mitosis in young but not aged muscle stem cells. Forcing symmetric NAMPT inheritance in young cells reproduces the aged failure of both reserve-cell formation and differentiation, whereas tethering NAMPT to one daughter restores a Pax7-high reserve from aged cells without changing the pre-mitotic NAD+ pool.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H23Age-related mitochondrial NAD+ depletion creates a transient ferroptosis susceptibility during muscle stem-cell activation by limiting synthesis of the mitochondrial NADP(H) pool.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Reduced mitochondrial NAD+ availability limits NADK2-dependent NADP+ production during the increase in mitochondrial activity after injury. Insufficient mitochondrial NADPH regeneration then compromises peroxide detoxification, allowing lipid oxidation to eliminate otherwise competent progenitors.

Prediction. Activated aged cells should show reduced NADP(H) synthesis from mitochondrial NAD+ before lipid peroxide accumulation and cell loss. Temporally restricted ferroptosis inhibition should preserve their regenerative contribution without restoring NAD+, whereas NAD+ replenishment should fail to normalize mitochondrial NADP(H) when NADK2 is disabled.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H24The SC NAD+ deficit is extrinsically imposed by a niche NAD+ sink: CD38 on aged muscle-resident macrophages and endothelium hydrolyses interstitial NAD+/NMN before SCs can import it, so SC-extrinsic CD38 deletion restores regeneration without changing SC-intrinsic biosynthetic gene expression.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Extracellular NMN is the main precursor SCs take up after injury (via SLC12A8/dephosphorylation to NR). Aged inflammatory myeloid CD38 and endothelial CD38 consume this interstitial pool, creating a local gradient depletion at the sublaminar niche even when systemic precursors are abundant.

Prediction. Myeloid- or endothelium-specific Cd38 deletion in old mice restores SC NAD+ and fibre regeneration after injury, while SC-specific Cd38 deletion does not; interstitial microdialysis shows restored post-injury NMN/NAD+ in the knockouts. Transplanting old SCs into young muscle rescues them better than young SCs into old muscle treated with NR.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H25Age-related NAD+ decline in satellite cells (SCs) is not primarily a loss of biosynthesis but a switch to SARM1-mediated autodestruction: the aged SC rises in NMN/NAD+ ratio, relieving SARM1 ARM-domain autoinhibition and turning SARM1 into a constitutive intracellular NAD+ sink that blocks activation after injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Aged SCs retain NAMPT-derived NMN but lose NMNAT1/2 capacity, so the NMN:NAD+ ratio rises. NMN binding to the SARM1 allosteric site activates its TIR NADase, which hydrolyses NAD+ faster than it is resynthesised, collapsing the pool specifically during the energetically demanding quiescence-exit window and generating cADPR-like signalling products.

Prediction. Sarm1-/- or SC-specific Sarm1 deletion in old mice restores SC NAD+, first-division kinetics and regenerated fibre CSA after cardiotoxin injury, whereas NMN supplementation in old wild-type mice worsens or fails to improve SC NAD+ while NR (which bypasses NMN accumulation less) or NMNAT1 overexpression rescues. Isolated old SCs should show NAD+ loss blocked by a SARM1 TIR inhibitor but not by NAMPT inhibition.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H27NAD+ decline impairs the terminal fusion step rather than proliferation: low NAD+ leaves SIRT1 unable to deacetylate the fusogenic machinery/phosphatidylserine-exposure pathway, so aged myocytes proliferate and differentiate but accrete fewer myonuclei per nascent fibre.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Fusion requires a transient mitochondrial-OXPHOS-dependent and SIRT1-gated step controlling Myomaker/Myomerger surface delivery and PS exposure. NAD+-limited SIRT1 leaves these effectors hyperacetylated and mislocalised, reducing fusion index without changing MyoG+ fraction.

Prediction. In old regenerating muscle, MyoG+ cell number is near-normal while myonuclei per fibre and fusion index are reduced; NAD+ precursor treatment restores fusion index and myonuclear number without changing proliferative output, and Myomerger overexpression rescues old fusion independently of NAD+ status.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H28In aged muscle stem cells, CD38 shifts from NAADP synthesis to NAD+ hydrolysis, eliminating the NAADP-dependent lysosomal calcium pulse required for mTORC1 activation and S-phase entry after injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NAADP opens TPC2 channels on lysosomes, and the calcium transient recruits mTORC1 to the lysosomal surface. Loss of CD38 base-exchange activity leaves growth-factor pathways intact but disconnects them from quiescence exit.

Prediction. A TPC2 agonist or cell-permeable NAADP restores lysosomal mTORC1 and EdU incorporation after injury while NAD+ remains low. A CD38 mutant that keeps base-exchange activity but lacks NADase activity rescues activation, whereas a hydrolysis-only CD38 mutant does not.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H29Age-related NAD+ shortage removes the NAD+ 5′ cap from stored quiescence transcripts in muscle stem cells, so Pax7 and Spry1 mRNAs are degraded during the return to quiescence and the reserve is not rebuilt after one injury.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. NAD+ caps on selected mRNAs protect them from decapping. Below a threshold NAD+ concentration, this reservoir is lost late in repair, after differentiation has already begun, so the next quiescent pool fails specifically at the re-entry step.

Prediction. NAD+-capped Pax7 and Spry1 mRNAs fall in aged muscle stem cells only during the return-to-quiescence window. Decapping-resistant versions of these transcripts restore the Pax7-positive reserve without increasing NAD+. Raising NAD+ only on days 5–10 after injury preserves both the caps and the reserve, whereas the same increase limited to the first two days does not.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H30Depletion of the mitochondrial NAD+ pool in aged activated MuSCs inactivates SIRT5-mediated desuccinylation of the oxoglutarate dehydrogenase complex (OGDH), collapsing the intracellular alpha-ketoglutarate-to-succinate ratio. The resulting succinate accumulation competitively inhibits the histone demethylase KDM6A (UTX), locking activated MuSCs in a proliferative state unable to demethylate and activate terminal differentiation genes.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Upon injury, mitochondrial NAD+ imported via SLC25A51 activates SIRT5, which desuccinylates and restrains the E1 subunit of OGDH, maintaining a high alpha-ketoglutarate/succinate ratio required by the Jumonji-domain demethylase KDM6A to strip repressive H3K27me3 marks from the Myog and Mef2c promoters. In aged MuSCs, mitochondrial NAD+ scarcity causes OGDH hypersuccinylation and hyperactivation, converting alpha-ketoglutarate into succinate and epigenetically blocking the proliferation-to-differentiation transition.

Prediction. Activated aged MuSCs will display elevated lysine succinylation on OGDH, a reduced alpha-ketoglutarate/succinate ratio, and persistent H3K27me3 enrichment at the Myog locus; treatment with cell-permeable dimethyl-alpha-ketoglutarate or expression of a succinylation-resistant OGDH mutant will rescue Myog transcription and myofiber maturation in NAD+-depleted MuSCs.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H31Nuclear NAD+ depletion in aged MuSCs abolishes SIRT6-mediated deacetylation of Lamin A/C, causing pathological stiffening of the nuclear lamina that leads to nuclear envelope rupture and cGAS-STING activation as cells migrate through the damaged extracellular matrix.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Regenerating MuSCs must squeeze through dense, fibrotic interstitial constrictions along ghost fibers to repopulate injury sites, requiring dynamic nuclear deformability. In young MuSCs, nuclear NAD+ sustains SIRT6 deacetylase activity toward the Ig-fold domain of Lamin A/C, maintaining a viscoelastic nuclear lamina; in aged MuSCs, loss of nuclear NAD+ causes Lamin A/C hyperacetylation and rigidification, resulting in mechanical fracture of the nuclear envelope during confined migration, exposure of genomic DNA to cytosolic cGAS, and type I interferon-driven migratory arrest.

Prediction. Intravital imaging and microfluidic constriction assays of aged MuSCs carrying an NLS-GFP reporter will show frequent nuclear blebbing, cytoplasmic GFP leakage, and perinuclear cGAS foci during migration; MuSC-specific cGAS deletion or expression of a deacetylation-mimetic Lamin A/C variant will restore migration velocity and regeneration in aged muscle.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H32NAD+ decline blunts the earliest injury signal in quiescent SCs by starving CD38/CD157 of substrate for cADPR production, so the Ca2+-release transient that licenses quiescence exit is reduced in amplitude and the SC responds late and with reduced probability of activation.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Quiescence exit requires an ecto-NADase-generated cADPR/ADPR burst acting on RyR and TRPM2 to produce a stereotyped Ca2+ transient that drives p38-MK2 and nuclear MyoD. Even though CD38 protein rises with age, the collapsed local NAD+ substrate pool lowers cADPR output, reducing Ca2+ transient amplitude below the activation threshold in a subset of SCs.

Prediction. GCaMP imaging of SCs in situ shows reduced amplitude and delayed onset of the post-injury Ca2+ transient in old muscle, rescued within minutes by local NAD+ (but not NMN) application or by 8-Br-cADPR-insensitive RyR agonism; TRPM2 or RyR1 agonism rescues old SC activation without raising NAD+, and the fraction of SCs ever entering S phase (not their cycle speed) is what changes.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Not found in published articles
H33NAD+ depletion in aged muscle stem cells inactivates SIRT2, hyperacetylates α-tubulin, and randomizes mitotic spindle orientation, so post-injury divisions no longer generate a basal self-renewing daughter.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. SIRT2 requires NAD+ to deacetylate α-tubulin at lysine 40. Hyperacetylated microtubules lose anchoring to the basal lamina and uncouple the spindle from the Notch-high niche.

Prediction. Aged muscle stem cells show high α-tubulin K40 acetylation and loss of apicobasal divisions. An acetylation-resistant K40R α-tubulin mutant restores Pax7-positive self-renewal in low-NAD+ aged cells without raising NAD+, whereas a K40 acetylation-mimetic abolishes self-renewal in young cells with normal NAD+.

Grok 4.7noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H35Age-related NAD+ depletion impairs muscle stem-cell differentiation partly by reducing NAD capping of a specific subset of fusion-related transcripts, including MYMK.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. The proposed mechanism is that MYMK transcripts include a functional NAD-capped subpopulation whose abundance depends on nuclear NAD+ availability. Loss of this cap reduces transcript persistence during differentiation, lowering myomaker protein and limiting fusion independently of progenitor production.

Prediction. Orthogonal cap-sensitive assays should first identify an authentic NAD-capped MYMK population and show its selective depletion in aged cells. A stable, conventionally capped MYMK transcript should rescue fusion without restoring NAD+ or proliferation; failure to detect the proposed cap would reject this mechanism.

GPT-6 AstranoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H36In aged proliferating MuSCs, cytosolic NAD+ falls below the catalytic threshold of 3-phosphoglycerate dehydrogenase (PHGDH), halting de novo serine synthesis and depleting phosphatidylserine on MuSC-secreted extracellular vesicles. Without phosphatidylserine-positive vesicles to engage MerTK on infiltrating macrophages, the niche fails to transition from pro-inflammatory to pro-resolving macrophages, secondarily blocking myogenic differentiation.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. PHGDH catalyzes the rate-limiting step of de novo serine synthesis and possesses a high Km for its obligatory cofactor NAD+, making it acutely sensitive to age-related NAD+ decline. In young proliferating MuSCs, robust NAD+-driven PHGDH flux supplies serine to synthesize phosphatidylserine-enriched exosomes that signal via MerTK on Ly6C-high macrophages to induce their conversion into pro-myogenic Ly6C-low macrophages; in aged MuSCs, PHGDH stalling diverts glycolytic intermediates into methylglyoxal while producing phosphatidylserine-deficient vesicles that fail to resolve niche inflammation.

Prediction. 13C6-glucose tracing in aged activated MuSCs will demonstrate a metabolic block at PHGDH with depleted 13C3-serine and reduced Annexin-V binding on MuSC-derived exosomes; dietary serine/phosphatidylserine liposome delivery or MuSC-specific expression of a low-Km PHGDH variant will restore the Ly6C-high-to-low macrophage switch and muscle repair in aged mice.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H37Low NAD+ raises the cytosolic NADH/NAD+ ratio in aged SCs, driving lactate accumulation and histone lactylation (H3K18la) that installs a stable 'pseudo-differentiation' chromatin state at myogenic and quiescence loci, blocking productive regeneration.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Reduced NAD+ limits LDH-A reoxidation flux balance, increasing intracellular lactate and lactyl-CoA. p300-dependent H3K18 lactylation accumulates at promoters normally governed by NAD+-dependent sirtuin deacetylation, producing an acylation mark that sirtuins cannot efficiently remove, so the epigenome drifts independently of the acute NAD+ level.

Prediction. Old SCs show elevated H3K18la by CUT&RUN enriched at myogenic/quiescence promoters; p300 inhibition or LDH-A knockdown in old SCs restores regeneration and MyoD/Myogenin kinetics, and NAD+ precursor treatment improves regeneration only when lactylation is also lowered. Forcing lactylation in young SCs (exogenous lactate + p300 activation) phenocopies the aged regenerative deficit without lowering NAD+.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Published results contradict it
H38NAD+ availability sets the fidelity of asymmetric SC division: below a threshold, SIRT2-dependent deacetylation of the mitotic partitioning machinery fails, NUMB and old/new mitochondria are co-segregated incorrectly, and aged SCs divide symmetrically into committed progeny, depleting the stem pool rather than expanding it.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. SIRT2 deacetylates tubulin and spindle-associated/polarity components required to position NUMB and to apportion mitochondria asymmetrically. Low NAD+ reduces SIRT2 activity, hyperacetylating these substrates, so planar/symmetric committed divisions replace apical-basal asymmetric divisions.

Prediction. Live imaging of single old SCs on myofibres shows a shift toward symmetric Pax7+/MyoD+ pairs and symmetric mitochondrial inheritance (MitoTimer); acute NAD+ restoration or SIRT2 activation normalises the asymmetric fraction within one division, and SC-specific Sirt2 deletion in young mice reproduces the symmetric-commitment phenotype with normal proliferation rate.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Published results contradict it
H39In aged MuSCs, low cytoplasmic NAD+ prevents tankyrase-1 (TNKS1) from synthesizing poly(ADP-ribose) chains on the RNA helicase DDX6 upon muscle injury, blocking the dissolution of quiescent ribonucleoprotein (RNP) storage granules. As a result, pre-transcribed Myf5 mRNAs remain sequestered in hardened cytoplasmic condensates, delaying initial myogenic activation.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Quiescent MuSCs poise for rapid activation by storing translated-repressed Myf5 mRNA within liquid-like cytoplasmic RNP granules scaffolded by DDX6. Injury-induced signaling normally activates cytoplasmic TNKS1, which consumes NAD+ to PARylate the intrinsically disordered region of DDX6, introducing electrostatic repulsion that dissolves the condensate and releases Myf5 mRNA to ribosomes; in aged MuSCs, NAD+ scarcity prevents DDX6 PARylation, causing RNP granules to mature into non-dynamic hydrogels.

Prediction. Fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) and single-molecule FISH in freshly injured aged MuSCs will show immobile DDX6 puncta retaining Myf5 mRNA and lacking poly(ADP-ribose) chains, while acute pharmacological inhibition of TNKS1 with XAV939 in young MuSCs will block Myf5 protein translation without altering Myf5 transcript abundance.

Gemini 4 ArgonnoDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not
H40NAD+ is required at the resolution phase of regeneration, not at activation: aged SCs fail primarily to re-enter quiescence and repopulate the niche because sirtuin-dependent fatty-acid-oxidation reprogramming at the end of the proliferative burst is NAD+-limited.
Mechanism and prediction

Mechanism. Return to quiescence requires a glycolysis→FAO switch enforced by SIRT3-dependent deacetylation of LCAD/CPT1b and SIRT1-dependent repression of MyoD. With low NAD+, aged SC progeny remain glycolytic and differentiate or die instead of reserving, so the stem pool is consumed by each injury.

Prediction. Pulsed NAD+ precursor delivery restricted to days 5–10 post-injury restores old SC self-renewal (Pax7+ pool recovery, second-injury regenerative capacity) at least as well as continuous dosing, whereas dosing restricted to days 0–2 improves early proliferation but not pool restoration. SC-specific Sirt3 deletion in young mice should phenocopy the aged failure-to-reserve without impairing initial activation.

Claude Opus 5.5noDiscarded at stage 1Parts are published, the hypothesis as a whole is not