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Resolves on the year in which a person with at least 1 million Instagram followers publicly and credibly demonstrates a functioning digital copy (whole-brain emulation) of their own mind running on a computer. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: public demonstration / mainstream news / peer review.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.30974+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.30974+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":81,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a big, memorable future-outcome question tied to a public figure threshold and a headline event that a general longevity audience can easily understand and discuss.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"40b65a71-df87-4ca8-ae67-57d32e1f4210","ordinal":0,"label":"By end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"bdd032d7-6fba-4bfb-a0f4-9b3e55d1fb61","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"3dbb6521-b6ab-4316-bc7f-0cbf1ff24a22","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7f48aed0-f52d-4fc2-ab10-c9506af81565","ordinal":3,"label":"2032–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"fb8270e2-34e5-445f-8249-e730baeb9320","ordinal":4,"label":"2034–2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"2498d6c0-b089-4b7e-b808-05998f92d180","ordinal":5,"label":"Not by end of 2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"0764e0ca-8f3f-4d64-9d75-dbffd6ce9bfc","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/wSQaUUsU","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/wSQaUUsU"},{"id":"c8f781eb-b6e5-44e0-8a03-0b01922ed574","public_id":"aNHzxVhN","slug":"es-pred-musk-longevity-investment-2027","question":"Will Elon Musk make an investment related to life extension by 31 August 2027?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Resolves Yes if a publicly disclosed investment by Elon Musk — personally or through an entity he controls — into a longevity / life-extension venture is reported on or before 2027-08-31. Resolution horizon: 2027-08-31. Source: company announcement / SEC filing / major news.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":50,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.306762+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.306762+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":88,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a simple, celebrity-driven yes/no question that a wide audience can understand and discuss without needing scientific or specialist longevity knowledge.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"46344c4b-05ee-4d88-9709-5dc1b9b64760","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":50,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7632b8a6-72d4-489e-8a00-8b983dbca4f6","ordinal":1,"label":"No","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":50,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/aNHzxVhN","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/aNHzxVhN"},{"id":"09ff45ba-cd62-49cf-848b-b1dcf99031dc","public_id":"fb0qKQPN","slug":"es-pred-influencer-10m-gene-therapy","question":"In which year will a person with 10M+ Instagram followers undergo gene therapy?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Resolves on the year in which a person with at least 10 million Instagram followers publicly and credibly documents undergoing a gene therapy. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: the person’s public channels / mainstream news.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.302742+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.302742+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":91,"accessibility_rationale":"This is an easy-to-grasp celebrity-style milestone that a general audience can understand and follow through public announcements and mainstream news.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"54ca4744-7f78-475d-84de-2cdbf4426e14","ordinal":0,"label":"By end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"559252dd-1d2a-4050-827d-a42c6aad4f89","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"14713389-eb73-40b7-aa82-3376756291d9","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"edbef4c6-43e0-41a5-af70-4e1bfcf16712","ordinal":3,"label":"2032–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"160b8c70-45af-4554-a4f2-62ec78b873ec","ordinal":4,"label":"2034–2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"0fd5137b-b1f7-48c2-9b28-7adccfebdba9","ordinal":5,"label":"Not by end of 2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e99524de-58c1-4898-8e62-7b5080842da5","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/fb0qKQPN","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/fb0qKQPN"},{"id":"8925d8e3-5828-4205-bd56-cb49c7bc93ee","public_id":"2wrOGlJm","slug":"es-pred-pope-against-life-extension-2035","question":"Will the Pope publicly speak out against life extension by the end of 2035?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Resolves Yes if the reigning Pope makes a public statement (homily, encyclical, official address, or Vatican communiqué) explicitly opposing radical life extension or immortality research, on or before 2035-12-31. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: Vatican press office / major news coverage.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":50,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.299765+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.299765+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":89,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a clear, high-level public-event question about a globally recognizable figure and a simple yes-or-no outcome that a general audience can easily understand and discuss.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"e63c64ed-7f54-48bb-9cbc-1bae538763b4","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":50,"is_winner":null},{"id":"1f4cd7c2-ac30-44df-b72a-d0fa15881e2d","ordinal":1,"label":"No","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":50,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/2wrOGlJm","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/2wrOGlJm"},{"id":"4b7a8d1f-9e5e-40cb-b937-b326bc652646","public_id":"Pn2nYOz2","slug":"es-pred-film-400m-hero-immortality","question":"In which year will a film grossing over $400M worldwide be released whose protagonist seeks immortality?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Resolves on the release year of a film that (a) grosses more than US$400 million worldwide and (b) has a lead protagonist whose central motive is achieving immortality or radical life extension. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: Box Office Mojo + film synopsis.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.295468+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.295468+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":92,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a simple, high-concept pop-culture question using mainstream box office results and an easily understood immortality theme that a wide audience can follow.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"d59b262b-9cb7-476a-9e2b-3161321adde4","ordinal":0,"label":"By end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"4fbf6e80-f2e7-4b14-8119-22c3e7dddbf4","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9a3e2540-cc1e-48ab-a0c9-ee00c89a8eb4","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e7853a0f-647a-4a1d-b932-a3d45f69b8b7","ordinal":3,"label":"2032–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"34921e71-21dd-4675-81d5-973a872f151b","ordinal":4,"label":"2034–2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"505495da-b126-4114-bfca-13f2f246b7a4","ordinal":5,"label":"Not by end of 2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"878f4b54-8681-427c-8fd3-a6ccdab67445","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/Pn2nYOz2","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/Pn2nYOz2"},{"id":"0e586641-5f55-4dbe-bdba-e695ee72a309","public_id":"rF2Zf79I","slug":"es-pred-longevity-book-1m-copies","question":"In which year will a book about longevity sell over 1 million copies?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Resolves on the year in which a single book primarily about longevity / life extension first surpasses 1,000,000 total copies sold. Resolution horizon: 2035-12-31. Source: publisher figures / NPD BookScan / NYT bestseller records.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.285749+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-02 19:09:29.285749+00","accessibility_tier":"broad","accessibility_score":91,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a simple, highly legible mainstream outcome about a popular topic that a general audience can understand and discuss without specialist scientific knowledge.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"3e5bc176-5d86-4bc7-a803-5764cd7e1ff1","ordinal":0,"label":"By end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6e257f56-0985-4412-be39-4e63e8d0843f","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"4fdb8a06-1ea6-4e66-898d-8ea72de47b39","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b3b02ac2-e2bd-4780-9eb2-0c7a07893e57","ordinal":3,"label":"2032–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"1a1bb44b-2edb-4ec3-90bb-79abb0bb4a53","ordinal":4,"label":"2034–2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"daaf721c-77ec-4af0-b6e4-6e66aa8b010a","ordinal":5,"label":"Not by end of 2035","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e91b97ee-ffd5-4e0f-b3c6-6394b6062a20","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/rF2Zf79I","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/rF2Zf79I"},{"id":"83dd3d36-38c8-4028-9351-7ca8021db704","public_id":"ElfxIQRS","slug":"es-pred-39-big-aging-deals-count","question":"How many deals or partnerships with an upfront payment over $500M on aging-biology assets will happen from Jul 2026 to Jul 2027?","description":"Aging-biology assets: senolytic, mTOR, NLRP3, autophagy, reprogramming, stem-cell frailty. Upfront = cash that actually changes hands at signing, not biobucks (milestones, royalties, options or contingent value rights that may never be paid).","resolution_criteria":"Counts disclosed deals, licenses or acquisitions where the UPFRONT payment — cash paid at close — exceeds $500M, on an asset explicitly targeting aging biology, in the window Jul 2026 to Jul 2027. Contingent value does NOT count toward the $500M: milestone payments, royalties, options, earn-outs and CVRs (the biobucks part of the headline) are excluded even when the total announced deal value is far higher. For an acquisition, use the consideration actually paid, excluding CVRs. Resolution horizon: 2027-07-31. Source: press releases, regulatory filings, industry reports.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.599393+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.599393+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":46,"accessibility_rationale":"This requires biotech and deal-structure familiarity to judge aging-biology asset scope and true upfront consideration, but it is still understandable without specialist mechanistic expertise.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"5250f477-c34c-438e-9ca1-089e63331526","ordinal":0,"label":"Zero","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"14bbd52a-4ca7-4aa1-9106-a8fac1180147","ordinal":1,"label":"1 deal","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"2e77e869-be81-495b-b889-977e0f94e93d","ordinal":2,"label":"2 deals","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"1992a763-04aa-4ed0-9643-300897df9d2e","ordinal":3,"label":"3–4 deals","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"1847f530-0a09-42b7-a934-fc4ab52c05c0","ordinal":4,"label":"5 or more","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"bfceb2ce-d116-4a7e-aa48-e5006e7cd644","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/ElfxIQRS","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/ElfxIQRS"},{"id":"9a0e1def-2c8a-4d26-9fa3-651585edbc09","public_id":"NczPb7qA","slug":"es-pred-36-artificial-synapses-human","question":"When will artificial electrical synapses (Duke LinCx) or connectome-based activity prediction (Eon) reach first human use?","description":"Two 2026 advances in engineering brain wiring, both still far from humans.\n\nDuke's LinCx is an artificial electrical synapse: engineered fish-derived proteins that dock only with a matching partner and pass electrical current between two chosen neurons, so researchers can add a brand-new connection to a circuit instead of repairing a broken one. In mice and worms it altered social behavior, stress resilience, and temperature-seeking (Nature, May 2026). Background: https://today.duke.edu/2026/05/new-wire-points-new-treatment-approach-neurological-disorders\n\nEon (Eon Systems) does connectome-based activity prediction: start from a wiring map of a brain, then use deep learning to predict what those neurons will actually do — first demonstrated on the fruit-fly visual system inside a virtual embodied fly. Background: https://eon.systems/updates/embodied-brain-emulation\n\nThis market asks when either line of work first reaches a human in a registered study. Resolution horizon: 2040.","resolution_criteria":"The first claimed use of artificial-synapse or connectome-prediction technology in a human, in a registered study. Resolution horizon: 2040-12-31. Source: registry, publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.589851+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.589851+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":40,"accessibility_rationale":"It centers on specific frontier neurotechnology platforms and a registered human-study milestone, which needs domain familiarity but is still understandable as a concrete first-in-human event.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"9264e474-bc6d-47e3-b7dc-6fc9feaf8ad4","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"83661bbd-016a-41e8-a129-4a69a29e0c69","ordinal":1,"label":"2030–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"80571f3e-45a9-401b-a768-82504f1499da","ordinal":2,"label":"2034–2038","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"3610433d-fe28-4bf0-b7e1-e4ebd374a214","ordinal":3,"label":"2039 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"0c0f42a0-2f42-45a8-8549-dfea67afd0de","ordinal":4,"label":"Never in humans","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"aee678e4-505e-44b0-9f57-29928e21fc54","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/NczPb7qA","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/NczPb7qA"},{"id":"e082abfb-c90c-4f9d-9682-817f100695c9","public_id":"3RDgkqx3","slug":"es-pred-35-organ-vitrification-transplant","question":"When will a mammalian organ be successfully vitrified and transplanted?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"A mammalian organ recovered from a vitrified state (e.g. nanowarming) and transplanted with life-supporting function, described in a peer-reviewed paper or clinical case. Resolution horizon: 2040-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication, clinical registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.585953+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.585953+00","accessibility_tier":"technical","accessibility_score":27,"accessibility_rationale":"This hinges on specialist cryobiology, transplant physiology, and experimental proof standards that most non-experts cannot confidently evaluate.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"4cbb55c7-39f2-4a77-85b0-69fceb0d1394","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"f3d564df-a545-450f-a33a-8e27af0bebbc","ordinal":1,"label":"2029–2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b16f161d-1157-4af2-b04f-de97d93b77e8","ordinal":2,"label":"2031–2033","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"2eb76dca-609c-47a9-a3bd-458f036e2fc5","ordinal":3,"label":"2034–2037","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6864f468-6032-46e2-bd36-4c02d847668c","ordinal":4,"label":"2038 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ac8d55f6-c06a-4d22-a6ad-062e663543c5","ordinal":5,"label":"Not by 2040","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"014541de-1527-4302-aad2-95c44059ba6c","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/3RDgkqx3","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/3RDgkqx3"},{"id":"61f29c7c-ebc3-4175-9e4c-580570aeea6d","public_id":"jkyMlxTd","slug":"es-pred-34-nedd8-longevity-drug","question":"When will the first NEDD8-pathway drug with a longevity indication reach Phase 2b trials?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"The first drug targeting the NEDD8 / neddylation pathway reaches a Phase 2b (or later) clinical trial carrying a stated aging, senescence, or geroprotection indication. The phase is read from the trial's registered phase field on ClinicalTrials.gov. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.583064+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.583064+00","accessibility_tier":"technical","accessibility_score":18,"accessibility_rationale":"This hinges on a niche molecular pathway, trial-phase nuance, and a specialized longevity indication that only scientifically literate experts are likely to track or judge well.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"a2349bc0-65b9-473d-9328-1f6130af3cde","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"5d56c0e6-c443-4ae3-807e-eeeab1413035","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"24a7c3ed-8612-4201-9096-a87e3d17e4af","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2032","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c2b4fa4e-86c2-4ae3-aeb0-8d7e926d1124","ordinal":3,"label":"2033 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7dc3129e-6b85-41c0-add8-cae638edc78d","ordinal":4,"label":"Never reaches Phase 2b with an aging indication","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"24bc36f4-9469-4489-98f3-4dfe4b4fdc1b","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/jkyMlxTd","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/jkyMlxTd"},{"id":"eb357632-ab08-4841-a790-0a9d8e3919e1","public_id":"JkUkYdm6","slug":"es-pred-33-prx5-peroxisomal-import","question":"Will peroxisomal protein import (PRX-5) become a validated aging target with lifespan extension in mammals, and when?","description":"PRX-5 is peroxin-5, the shuttle receptor that imports enzymes into the peroxisome — the tiny organelle that burns fatty acids and mops up reactive oxygen species. The enzymes are built out in the cytoplasm carrying a short address tag; PRX-5 reads that tag and hauls them inside. Lose the receptor and the peroxisome is a hollow shell: the enzymes exist but never reach the compartment where they do their work.\n\nThe aging angle comes from a 2026 C. elegans study: PRX-5 import falls with age, and that drop alone reproduces an old animal's metabolism — swollen lipid droplets, failing mitochondria, and loss of the normal fasting response. Overexpressing PRX-5 preserved lipid handling and mitochondrial integrity, and the authors argue peroxisomal import causally underpins dietary-restriction lifespan extension. Nature Aging, 2026: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-026-01122-1 — earlier preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.02.14.638340\n\nThat's worms, though. PRX-5's mammalian counterpart is PEX5, and its levels are known to fall in aged mouse brain neurons (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7484460/) — but no one has yet shown that restoring peroxisomal import extends a mammal's lifespan. That last step is exactly what this market asks. Resolution horizon: 2034.","resolution_criteria":"A peer-reviewed paper shows lifespan extension in mammals via restored peroxisomal protein import (PRX-5 or an ortholog). Resolution horizon: 2034-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.580092+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.580092+00","accessibility_tier":"technical","accessibility_score":18,"accessibility_rationale":"This question hinges on specialist understanding of peroxisomal import machinery, ortholog mapping, and whether a specific mechanistic intervention in mammalian aging studies counts as validated lifespan extension evidence.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"f1fdf0c4-4400-4348-901d-8c09c58abc9a","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e97e884b-9e7a-41ab-bbeb-0d687af1b8ed","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"f74b65e3-eb66-469b-8a87-ae66d6d6974e","ordinal":2,"label":"2031–2034","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"3ff39296-b855-42b9-9f4d-5782d829c7a5","ordinal":3,"label":"2035 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"37426b6b-a143-4dd7-9af4-d79584d91ab4","ordinal":4,"label":"Not validated in mammals","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ca948abf-e7e1-4338-b958-871d7e56ca49","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/JkUkYdm6","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/JkUkYdm6"},{"id":"ed242fa9-87ae-4057-9fbd-a9c186059fc2","public_id":"X0v4ad0y","slug":"es-pred-32-phase23-functional-endpoint","question":"When will a Phase 2/3 trial show an aging-biology target improving a hard functional endpoint beyond molecular markers?","description":"The catch this market is really asking about: today's aging drugs mostly move a molecular marker — a lab number like an epigenetic \"aging clock\", an inflammation reading (CRP, IL-6), or a count of senescent cells in a biopsy. Moving a number is easy and proves little on its own; a person can have a prettier blood panel and still be just as weak and frail.\n\nA functional endpoint is the opposite — something you can actually feel, or that changes a life. Examples: grip strength, walking (gait) speed, how far someone gets in a six-minute walk, a frailty index (a 0–1 score built from dozens of health deficits — the more deficits, the higher and worse the score), the rate of falls, or a hard clinical event (a fracture, a hospitalization, a death). These are what regulators and patients actually care about, and they are far harder to shift than a biomarker.\n\nAn aging-biology target means the drug aims at a root mechanism of aging — clearing senescent cells (senolytics), mTOR/rapamycin, NAD+ boosting, partial reprogramming, and the like — not an ordinary single-disease drug that happens to help.\n\nSo the whole thing in plain words: when will a real human trial (Phase 2 = does it work, and at what dose; Phase 3 = large confirmatory) of an anti-aging drug show it doesn't just prettify a lab number, but actually makes people measurably stronger, faster, or less frail — or prevents a hard event like a fracture or hospitalization? The bar is deliberately high: the improvement has to be the trial's declared primary functional endpoint, not a molecular marker that happened to move on the side. Resolution horizon: 2032.","resolution_criteria":"A registered Phase 2 or 3 trial reports an improvement in a functional primary endpoint (strength, gait, event) — not just a molecular marker. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: registry, publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.574919+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.574919+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":55,"accessibility_rationale":"This is understandable to motivated longevity followers, but judging it depends on knowing clinical trial phases, primary functional endpoints, and what counts as a true aging-biology therapy rather than just a biomarker result.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"7d416974-f236-40f4-b9f6-ddb5374c8571","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e60a54e9-6e70-4822-b442-fbccedbb505e","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c5247d90-8bfe-4844-9904-fb1f48b7ab95","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b7e1ef38-d15b-4b88-94b5-068619d3d351","ordinal":3,"label":"2032 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c85a0327-3b4c-4686-9f5d-e4994e6dade6","ordinal":4,"label":"Never by the horizon","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"27b86832-000b-4281-a2a2-a8d3f499dbda","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/X0v4ad0y","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/X0v4ad0y"},{"id":"1427f4f6-c493-492c-8774-bcec0d79acf8","public_id":"v2dRY5w0","slug":"es-pred-31-aging-clock-surrogate-endpoint","question":"Will at least one aging clock be accepted by a regulator as a surrogate endpoint?","description":"A higher bar than qualification as a drug-development tool (Q28) or biomarker qualification (Q30).","resolution_criteria":"A regulator (FDA or EMA) accepts at least one aging clock as a surrogate endpoint in a drug approval or in a formal surrogate-endpoint qualification. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: FDA, EMA.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.570026+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.570026+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":56,"accessibility_rationale":"It centers on a specific regulatory milestone around aging clocks that requires some familiarity with biomarkers and approval pathways, but the core question is still understandable to many engaged longevity followers.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"0b54bd84-994c-4ffb-a481-c33b98a221f5","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"dde3e77e-ecf0-40bd-a6f1-80f78c0d755a","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, 2028–2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c957ba1b-430b-4c81-b1b2-7ca5183a953e","ordinal":2,"label":"Yes, 2031 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9c70db06-5cdd-4f90-ad8e-870989dce8a7","ordinal":3,"label":"No, none by the horizon","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"24350091-6b1e-485e-8693-19ecea115e0b","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/v2dRY5w0","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/v2dRY5w0"},{"id":"eeb2039e-97d0-4d61-a9db-ee13de56011c","public_id":"QaFy2XMe","slug":"es-pred-28-fda-qualify-aging-biomarker","question":"Will the FDA/CDER qualify an epigenetic clock or other biomarker of aging as a drug-development tool by 30 Jun 2029?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"The FDA accepts a biomarker of aging into its Biomarker Qualification Program (BQP) as a drug-development tool. Resolution horizon: 2029-06-30. Source: FDA BQP.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.559606+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.559606+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":45,"accessibility_rationale":"This hinges on a specific FDA qualification milestone for aging biomarkers, which is understandable to domain-aware longevity followers but too regulatory and specialized for broad popular engagement.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"2a0df247-4d1e-401b-bb44-3b383a191c73","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, an epigenetic clock","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"2e773540-d863-4b0d-8e9d-316bbb919f23","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, another biomarker of aging","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a7a6787e-794f-4e0e-8b30-1e3f48facbe4","ordinal":2,"label":"In qualification, no decision","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a30ae928-4507-40a5-8f2b-b464cc933709","ordinal":3,"label":"No, not by 30 Jun 2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"cfca04d7-107b-4976-aeff-687200731e1a","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/QaFy2XMe","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/QaFy2XMe"},{"id":"9e9b1112-2329-4460-a578-27415157ec0f","public_id":"ZMsz8UDa","slug":"es-pred-27-plasmapheresis-rct","question":"When will therapeutic plasmapheresis confirm a reduction in biological age or mortality in a randomized trial?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"A randomized controlled trial reports a significant reduction in a validated biological-age marker or mortality after therapeutic plasmapheresis. Resolution horizon: 2032-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication, registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.555583+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.555583+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":50,"accessibility_rationale":"It centers on a specific intervention and randomized-trial evidence that requires some clinical longevity knowledge, but the core outcome is still understandable to a motivated non-specialist audience.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"2d53b561-82e9-4f0d-8117-e3b329d50b25","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ae81ce73-fabd-409c-9131-f13ac1dcfbe3","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7a17ff1d-2be2-44db-a8f9-d9e68e3ec67f","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2032","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"79f213c3-b98d-4dd2-9cf1-b770bbd8cbea","ordinal":3,"label":"2033 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"cf577b13-5f87-4ad9-ae3f-855e3c217421","ordinal":4,"label":"Never in an RCT","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e08bbd91-7858-4566-ad41-29a69d8389fc","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/ZMsz8UDa","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/ZMsz8UDa"},{"id":"2607414b-63b7-4da4-ba9b-d4d9c2ae22c9","public_id":"NoBwtWxs","slug":"es-pred-26-cart-autoimmune","question":"Will CAR-T get its first FDA approval for an autoimmune indication outside oncology, and when?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"The first FDA approval of CAR-T (or in vivo CAR) for an autoimmune indication outside oncology. Resolution horizon: 2029-12-31. Source: FDA.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.551245+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.551245+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":49,"accessibility_rationale":"This is tied to a specific modality, regulator, and disease area crossover, so it needs domain familiarity but is still understandable to a motivated longevity audience.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"75dbec0b-57ff-4777-8793-6b5d18f6b441","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, in 2026","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ca678e11-c03a-4ca2-a3b5-67e4d3086820","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, in 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"da97c77b-bd50-481c-ad44-90ab9a27dd99","ordinal":2,"label":"Yes, in 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"08e7312a-c5c1-48cb-954d-87499f15e88c","ordinal":3,"label":"Yes, 2029 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9b1c5441-ec55-4b5b-acae-d8b5ffbaf276","ordinal":4,"label":"Not by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"8f843641-f5aa-4c89-9a71-69560b415bd6","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/NoBwtWxs","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/NoBwtWxs"},{"id":"1cb97a58-8769-4e3f-859d-a41d2d2e6271","public_id":"hWkdy13Z","slug":"es-pred-25-lonvo-z-crispr","question":"Will lonvo-z (Intellia) become the first approved in vivo CRISPR therapy, and when?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"lonvo-z receives FDA approval; we then check whether it is the first approved in vivo CRISPR drug. Resolution horizon: 2028-12-31. Source: FDA.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.547457+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.547457+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":52,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a specific company-and-drug regulatory milestone that a domain-aware audience can follow, but it is less broadly intuitive than a general longevity outcome question.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"9102bba5-afff-4626-8b73-3e6137e02d6e","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, approved in 2026","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6624e7a2-977d-4187-b465-c60851e53d37","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, in 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"414e0c54-32f9-4596-85d7-302bc50fe05f","ordinal":2,"label":"Yes, in 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a649a84f-f4e8-414d-94ce-6aef5ed1d177","ordinal":3,"label":"Approved, but not first","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"96165d51-cae8-4727-89e4-da0a2e0364dd","ordinal":4,"label":"Not approved by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6769aae1-91f3-4bf7-b78d-38c54222adf5","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/hWkdy13Z","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/hWkdy13Z"},{"id":"8fe7d773-3afa-4faf-9b92-087e10297363","public_id":"dFhCHbh9","slug":"es-pred-23-multiagent-candidate-clinic","question":"When will a FutureHouse Robin-style multi-agent system produce a candidate that reaches clinical trials?","description":"FutureHouse is a nonprofit AI research lab (backed by Eric Schmidt) building AI \"scientists\" — autonomous agents that read the literature, form hypotheses, and help design experiments. Robin is their multi-agent system for end-to-end scientific discovery: it chains specialized agents together — Crow and Falcon, which search and read the research literature, and Finch, which analyzes experimental data — in a loop with real bench experiments. The AI proposes an idea, a human runs the wet-lab test, and the results feed back in to sharpen the next idea. This \"lab-in-the-loop\" pattern is what the market means by a Robin-style system.\n\nIn its first public demonstration (announced May 2025, published in Nature in May 2026) Robin proposed ripasudil — a Rho-kinase (ROCK) inhibitor already sold as a glaucoma eye-drop — as a new treatment for dry age-related macular degeneration (dAMD, a leading cause of age-related blindness), running the whole hypothesis-to-candidate cycle in about 2.5 months. Background: https://www.futurehouse.org/research-announcements/demonstrating-end-to-end-scientific-discovery-with-robin-a-multi-agent-system\n\nSo the whole thing in plain words: when will a drug candidate whose discovery is genuinely credited to this kind of multi-agent AI system — an AI running the reasoning while humans run the experiments — actually reach a registered human clinical trial (Phase 1, the first-in-human safety study)? The bar is deliberately high: the AI system has to be credited as the origin of the candidate, not merely used as one tool along the way. Resolution horizon: 2031.","resolution_criteria":"A candidate whose origin is attributed to a lab-in-the-loop multi-agent AI system enters a registered Phase 1. Resolution horizon: 2031-12-31. Source: publication, registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.53801+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.53801+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":49,"accessibility_rationale":"This is tied to a specific AI discovery system and a precise clinical milestone, so it needs domain familiarity with drug development and attribution standards but is still understandable beyond specialists.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"141d5d67-349b-4823-b8ba-ac82df01b04a","ordinal":0,"label":"Before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ccbffa86-f40d-4351-8aef-6d9a14c7d53c","ordinal":1,"label":"2028–2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"00784684-2373-4888-ba68-83d3b14b9d69","ordinal":2,"label":"2030–2031","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"752c775e-20bc-4ec1-b8cf-8ac4b06f5626","ordinal":3,"label":"2032 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"3c95c704-699c-4e6e-8ab0-9ad8742f4f1e","ordinal":4,"label":"Never","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9f65e54b-0364-4435-a819-2d2c5aea4e2c","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/dFhCHbh9","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/dFhCHbh9"},{"id":"4ad47c95-77bd-4de6-a6a6-b83bc49f2c39","public_id":"GTyA3Wf0","slug":"es-pred-20-anthropic-first-clinical-phase","question":"When will Anthropic's first clinical phase begin?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"A candidate for which Anthropic is the originator or sponsor enters a registered Phase 1. Resolution horizon: 2031-12-31. Source: ClinicalTrials.gov.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":14.285714285714286,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.525228+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.525228+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":48,"accessibility_rationale":"This depends on following a specific company and a concrete drug-development milestone on ClinicalTrials.gov, which is understandable to informed longevity followers but not broadly compelling to a general audience.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"ff9cdce6-61b7-4c99-9124-efb0d1111b9c","ordinal":0,"label":"By end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"f8ad4c8f-0f4a-42cc-86b3-c8f946aaa76f","ordinal":1,"label":"2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6e5cdc7a-d6e9-49c7-af98-08d99bab78f2","ordinal":2,"label":"2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"63df5151-a421-45c7-a809-790dbf65ab1e","ordinal":3,"label":"2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"d0ab6e5d-5585-48bb-96a8-02ec9b5e7e74","ordinal":4,"label":"2031 or later","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"60502a43-4151-44b5-9a23-d24f311f836b","ordinal":5,"label":"Never as an Anthropic program","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a29d6af7-64be-4cb7-82e3-06dc17b22999","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/GTyA3Wf0","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/GTyA3Wf0"},{"id":"85fb288e-2993-4850-b645-3978d1974c21","public_id":"B4z1Lm1P","slug":"es-pred-18-anthropic-first-disease-area","question":"Which disease area will Anthropic disclose first?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"The first disease area Anthropic publicly names for an internal program. Resolution horizon: 2027-12-31. Source: Anthropic.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":10,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.517182+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.517182+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":48,"accessibility_rationale":"This requires following a specific company and understanding disease-area strategy, but it does not demand deep scientific or mechanistic expertise.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"74e1299e-1e27-4129-bbde-8b64e9863c5f","ordinal":0,"label":"Neglected or infectious disease","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b37e061f-e7f8-40b9-b0d5-81fd942b310e","ordinal":1,"label":"Aging or longevity","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"cf6a1fa1-4cf7-4bf9-8c94-7f596a761dbc","ordinal":2,"label":"Oncology","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6ff2a998-79be-4c39-af7f-cb32f87e2536","ordinal":3,"label":"Rare genetic disease","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7adacb86-7a7c-4658-a725-8dcdbb9a3cfc","ordinal":4,"label":"Immunology / autoimmune","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6e620bc4-f872-443c-ac18-e1835aa6b658","ordinal":5,"label":"Allergology / allergy","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"34a433c2-cb84-411c-a437-cc7d40f16472","ordinal":6,"label":"Neurology / neurodegeneration","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b99a986e-a7fa-465a-87e7-29e28d8a4495","ordinal":7,"label":"Cardiovascular / metabolic","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ce40ab51-f9d6-4cde-ab77-60ae8e05f5c4","ordinal":8,"label":"Won't disclose by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b32b160c-41d2-4e0f-8e1a-3abb0e9f5985","ordinal":9,"label":"Other area","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":10,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/B4z1Lm1P","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/B4z1Lm1P"},{"id":"e3d5cc83-788e-4b20-94ce-bb61bff9d1c5","public_id":"SacXSCDe","slug":"es-pred-16-loyal-fda-conditional-approval","question":"In what year will Loyal get FDA conditional approval for a daily dog-longevity pill?","description":"Loyal (legal name Cellular Longevity, Inc.) is a San Francisco biotech developing the first drugs designed specifically to extend healthy lifespan in dogs. The \"daily pill\" in this question is LOY-002: a beef-flavored chewable tablet given once a day to senior dogs. Instead of treating one disease, it targets age-related metabolic dysfunction — the gradual decline in how an aging body handles glucose and energy — which Loyal argues is an upstream driver of many age-associated diseases. The aim is more healthy years, not just treating illness after it appears.\n\nThe STAY study is LOY-002's pivotal efficacy trial — the large, real-world study whose results are meant to prove the drug works. It is double-blinded and placebo-controlled (half the dogs get the drug, half get a placebo, and neither owners nor vets know which), runs up to four years across about 70 veterinary clinics, and enrolled more than 1,300 dogs aged 10 or older weighing at least 14 lb. Enrollment finished in July 2025, and Loyal calls it the largest clinical trial in the history of veterinary medicine. Details and eligibility: https://loyal.com/clinical-trials\n\nTo reach market, LOY-002 must clear three technical sections of the FDA Center for Veterinary Medicine's conditional-approval pathway: Reasonable Expectation of Effectiveness (accepted February 2025), Target Animal Safety (accepted January 2026), and Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls, or CMC (still outstanding, with review anticipated in 2027). Conditional approval is an accelerated route: it lets a drug be sold legally for up to five years while the full efficacy data — here, the STAY results — are still being collected, as long as safety and a reasonable expectation of effectiveness are already established. So in plain words, this market asks: in which calendar year will the FDA grant that conditional approval, letting Loyal sell the LOY-002 daily pill? Resolution horizon: 2029.","resolution_criteria":"The FDA (CVM) grants conditional approval to a Loyal drug for canine lifespan extension. Resolution horizon: 2029-12-31. Source: FDA, Loyal.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.507355+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.507355+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":58,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a specific company-and-regulator milestone tied to a named drug and trial, so it needs some biotech and FDA-pathway familiarity but is still understandable to many longevity followers.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"0443c29e-2300-4d3e-af47-bbb96874ab17","ordinal":0,"label":"2026","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"aca2cd47-6ee7-4bbe-8a88-d952aec36292","ordinal":1,"label":"2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"4af9e5c5-b372-49c7-b2dc-ca842047dd15","ordinal":2,"label":"2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"6699dfee-a0ec-401c-9e05-d70c055152e2","ordinal":3,"label":"2029","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"d9bbd8d6-b258-4589-a0c9-ea32f65c4674","ordinal":4,"label":"2030","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c7f59008-436d-4f57-a857-3b96db115c86","ordinal":5,"label":"Never","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null},{"id":"03b96baf-0c07-4fca-8e39-e9d93b2d7b51","ordinal":6,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":14.285714285714286,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/SacXSCDe","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/SacXSCDe"},{"id":"c8fe02ae-8675-4f4e-b48a-0398d60e16b9","public_id":"V2uvfbGg","slug":"es-pred-14-sglt2-mtor-marmosets","question":"Will canagliflozin (SGLT2 inhibitor) plus low-dose rapamycin show synergy in old marmosets — HSC rejuvenation without high-dose immunosuppression?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"A peer-reviewed study in old marmosets reports synergistic hematopoietic stem-cell rejuvenation from canagliflozin plus low-dose rapamycin without the immunosuppression characteristic of high-dose rapamycin. Resolution horizon: 2030-12-31. Source: peer-reviewed publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":16.666666666666668,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.50022+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.50022+00","accessibility_tier":"technical","accessibility_score":14,"accessibility_rationale":"This requires specialist knowledge of marmoset aging models, hematopoietic stem-cell assays, drug interaction biology, and what counts as immunosuppression at different rapamycin doses.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"b02d7c30-f567-4626-b33c-7d9a5db0a66c","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, HSC rejuvenation synergy without immunosuppression","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c9138970-7ced-4b15-8520-b61fc5b44c63","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, but with partial immunosuppression","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"e4d14663-3e4f-4fd5-a839-fd942fe894ee","ordinal":2,"label":"Effect only from monotherapy","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ba45adeb-6f69-49c1-a1ef-3e5463549efb","ordinal":3,"label":"No synergy or no effect","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"f345d2cf-b251-4bd2-8f73-bdb9e8ef5118","ordinal":4,"label":"No data by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9610c857-82c2-4f89-8324-9ad046f6d6c1","ordinal":5,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":16.666666666666668,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/V2uvfbGg","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/V2uvfbGg"},{"id":"9e59762f-78e5-461d-bd17-716e9e9c82c5","public_id":"zhaMKlNn","slug":"es-pred-13-triad-dogs","question":"Will TRIAD (rapamycin in aging dogs, 580 animals, 3-year design) show a survival or disease-onset benefit by 30 Jun 2028?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"An interim or final TRIAD report records a significant effect on survival or disease onset. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Dog Aging Project, publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.497037+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.497037+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":54,"accessibility_rationale":"This centers on a named rapamycin aging-dogs study with specific endpoints and timing, so it needs domain familiarity but is still understandable beyond specialists.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"3ef4e5e0-bde6-42ac-bb9d-c06f038363e3","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, on survival","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"80a08339-f8db-4847-ae09-3f404f7bb15a","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, on delayed disease onset","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"bdcc7070-1c7b-4284-baa6-340a022ccfac","ordinal":2,"label":"Mixed result","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"42868bbc-5ff6-40b7-a087-c2689a36783d","ordinal":3,"label":"No benefit by 30 Jun 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"b2566f31-f802-4cc7-afe3-7bf9fc3dbec2","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/zhaMKlNn","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/zhaMKlNn"},{"id":"4f1bf8d2-2e9a-41b3-8b35-481801bd9335","public_id":"EEe2L3Mf","slug":"es-pred-12-rapamycin-older-adults","question":"Will a large rapamycin/rapalog trial in older adults show a convincing signal on immune resilience, frailty, or functional endpoints before 2028?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"A large trial (e.g. UT Health San Antonio) reports a statistically significant signal on its stated endpoints. Resolution horizon: 2027-12-31. Source: registry, publication.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.493155+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.493155+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":52,"accessibility_rationale":"This is tied to a specific intervention class and concrete clinical trial-style endpoints, so it needs some domain familiarity but remains understandable to a motivated longevity audience.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"a9c9ba47-2458-4c75-842e-24b71ccd904e","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, on immune resilience","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"39ea0d19-c4b7-48cf-a2e8-4a384e84db55","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, on frailty or function","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"f291e98f-b977-438a-8e4b-26d4c00b9c30","ordinal":2,"label":"Mixed signal","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"44c3b0bf-5d7e-4160-885c-4e29525d9adf","ordinal":3,"label":"No signal by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"4bc5ff89-8bed-47dd-b5fd-88643d4b14b4","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/EEe2L3Mf","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/EEe2L3Mf"},{"id":"77758be9-067d-4234-b172-99ac1507189a","public_id":"mGh2vnGX","slug":"es-pred-11-retro-rtr242","question":"Will Retro Biosciences publish first human safety/PK/biomarker data on RTR242 and move to Phase 2 by 30 Jun 2028?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"Retro publishes early clinical data on RTR242 (autophagy, Alzheimer's) and announces a Phase 2 start. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Retro, registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.489259+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.489259+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":46,"accessibility_rationale":"This is tied to a specific company, drug candidate, clinical data package, and development milestone, so it needs biotech and trial-literacy but not deep mechanistic expertise.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"07ce9f3b-67f6-44fe-af24-0c2b989689c1","ordinal":0,"label":"Publishes data and moves to Phase 2","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"9108cdd1-32e7-4964-8aaa-80d2a1ca9de9","ordinal":1,"label":"Publishes data without moving to Phase 2","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"2b3a17b7-ac86-400b-9190-96d8df7a835b","ordinal":2,"label":"Trial running, no data by close","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a646735b-6cac-47af-83f1-74beaa9cc9eb","ordinal":3,"label":"Program halted","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"93651285-bb00-4a6a-9d24-a9f8b488db81","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/mGh2vnGX","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/mGh2vnGX"},{"id":"6d5191e7-a201-4f7d-8d67-6a6eecfc7746","public_id":"pes4ORpD","slug":"es-pred-10-laromestrocel-frailty","question":"Will laromestrocel (Longeveron) confirm its effect in a larger frailty trial beyond Phase 2b?","description":"Laromestrocel (formerly Lomecel-B) is Longeveron's experimental cell therapy: allogeneic medicinal signaling cells — mesenchymal stem cells taken from the bone marrow of young, healthy donors, grown in culture, and given by IV infusion. \"Allogeneic\" means one donor's cells are used off-the-shelf in many unrelated patients, rather than harvesting each patient's own. The intended effect is not to treat one disease but to damp down the chronic, low-grade inflammation of aging and nudge tissue repair.\n\nThe trial this market builds on is Longeveron's Phase 2b aging-frailty study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03169231): a randomized, placebo-controlled, dose-finding trial in 148 ambulatory adults (155 enrolled) aged 70–85 who were mildly to moderately frail (Clinical Frailty Scale 5–6). Its primary endpoint was the six-minute walk test — literally how far a person can walk in six minutes, a hard functional measure rather than a lab number. Published in Cell Stem Cell in February 2026, it reported that the treated group walked 63.4 metres further than placebo at nine months (p = 0.0077), in a dose- and time-dependent pattern. Trial registry: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03169231 — Published results: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41747733/\n\nA Phase 2b is a mid-size dose-finding study, not the large pivotal trial regulators want before approval — so a positive Phase 2b is promising, not confirmatory. As of mid-2026 no larger (Phase 3) frailty trial for laromestrocel has been registered. In plain words, this market asks: by 30 June 2028, will laromestrocel reproduce this frailty benefit in a trial bigger than Phase 2b, again on a real functional endpoint (walking distance, grip strength, frailty index) rather than only molecular markers? Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30.","resolution_criteria":"A result from a frailty trial larger than Phase 2b for laromestrocel vs a functional primary endpoint. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. Source: Longeveron, registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.485125+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.485125+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":51,"accessibility_rationale":"This is centered on a named company therapy and whether a larger frailty trial reproduces a specific functional endpoint result, which requires domain familiarity but not deep mechanistic expertise.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"feebbd56-103b-4cc8-89c5-5f8fd93298aa","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, in a large trial before 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"a0c5c55a-cd74-435f-a61d-94a89ea971fb","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, in 2028","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ab2177fb-1d0a-4805-b276-6e65ab9df8f8","ordinal":2,"label":"Confirmed only in Phase 2b","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7a6eaa1b-93f2-4458-8154-428fd52f5741","ordinal":3,"label":"No confirmation","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"ac2b2953-8c17-4270-be6d-054ae78fac44","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/pes4ORpD","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/pes4ORpD"},{"id":"f1ba1c88-e97d-4dac-9688-428ee4cfe203","public_id":"sDNxAXX5","slug":"es-pred-09-bioage-bge102-poc","question":"Will BioAge's BGE-102 show a positive Phase 2 proof-of-concept on hsCRP and inflammatory endpoints by end of 2027?","description":"BioAge Labs (Nasdaq: BIOA) is a clinical-stage biotech that uses human aging data to find drug targets. BGE-102 is its oral, once-a-day NLRP3 inhibitor. NLRP3 is an inflammasome — a molecular alarm inside immune cells that, when it stays switched on with age, drives the chronic low-grade inflammation now thought to accelerate heart disease, metabolic decline, and other age-related conditions. BGE-102 is a small molecule designed to dial that alarm down; because it is brain-penetrant it can also reach inflammation inside the central nervous system. The readout everyone watches is hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), a standard blood marker of inflammation — the lower it goes, the more the drug is quieting the inflammatory signal. In Phase 1, BGE-102 produced what BioAge called potential best-in-class hsCRP reductions with once-daily oral dosing.\n\nThe Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial this question is about is QUELL-CV. It is randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled and dose-ranging: roughly 160 adults who have obesity, elevated inflammation (hsCRP above 3 mg/L) and at least one further cardiovascular risk factor are split across four groups — placebo, or BGE-102 at 30, 60, or 90 mg once daily — and treated for 12 weeks. The primary endpoint is the percent change in hsCRP from the start of dosing. The first participant was dosed in June 2026, and BioAge expects topline data in the second half of 2026. Trial registry record: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07656727\n\nBioAge is also expanding BGE-102 into a second indication: a Phase 1b/2a proof-of-concept trial in diabetic macular edema (DME — fluid build-up in the retina that blurs vision in people with diabetes), planned to start in mid-2026 with results anticipated in mid-2027; that is the DME data referenced in one of the answer options. In plain words, this market asks whether BGE-102 will hit a positive Phase 2 proof-of-concept on its inflammatory / cardiovascular-risk endpoints — chiefly the hsCRP reduction in QUELL-CV — by the end of 2027, and if so, when. Resolution horizon: 2027-12-31.","resolution_criteria":"BioAge reports a met Phase 2 proof-of-concept on its stated inflammatory or cardio-risk endpoints. Resolution horizon: 2027-12-31. Source: BioAge, registry.","status":"approved_open","market_kind":"multiple_choice","event_horizon_date":null,"winning_outcome_id":null,"price_yes":20,"volume_credits":0,"trader_count":0,"opens_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.478881+00","closes_at":"2026-11-01 23:59:59+00","resolved_at":null,"resolution_outcome":null,"resolution_rationale":null,"resolution_source_url":null,"created_at":"2026-07-01 01:17:47.478881+00","accessibility_tier":"applied","accessibility_score":46,"accessibility_rationale":"This is a specific biotech-and-trial outcome tied to one company, one drug, and named Phase 2 inflammatory endpoints, so it needs domain familiarity but not specialist mechanistic expertise to follow.","labels":[],"outcomes":[{"id":"9ffb6555-09d4-4b95-a234-b519e6fb3204","ordinal":0,"label":"Yes, in H2 2026","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"30690b1d-cbb4-4b2e-ba20-093d03c0dc61","ordinal":1,"label":"Yes, in 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"4b269e57-de53-4760-99b3-86d34bde1c08","ordinal":2,"label":"Yes, on 2027 DME data","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"c0cc9e61-7897-4f2b-924b-e26d7f639fe5","ordinal":3,"label":"No positive PoC by end of 2027","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":false,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null},{"id":"7c55b759-b8ba-4aa4-ba9e-1a250f67a313","ordinal":4,"label":"Other","boundary_date":null,"is_terminal":false,"is_other":true,"q_shares":0,"price":20,"is_winner":null}],"public_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/predictions/sDNxAXX5","api_url":"https://eternalsearch.net/api/v1/content/predictions/sDNxAXX5"},{"id":"c786c659-084f-4736-90f1-e0328ff7e558","public_id":"vZPLjRgi","slug":"es-pred-08-systemic-reprogramming-first-human","question":"Will the first human be dosed in a systemic (non-ophthalmic) reprogramming trial by 30 Jun 2028?","description":null,"resolution_criteria":"The first dosed patient in a reprogramming trial with systemic or non-ocular delivery. Resolution horizon: 2028-06-30. 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